NCAA Auto-Bid RPI & Seeding

[ValpoHoops]

I did this two years ago and it seemed to generate a fair amount of discussion. I will update daily (I'll try, anyways).

Notes:
- RPI numbers are direct from NCAA website
- RPI obviously is not the only tool
- We want as many upsets as possible...lots of GREEN!

- GREEN means a team has a worse RPI than Valpo (this is good)
- RED means a team has a better RPI than Valpo (this is bad)

- I will fill in details as they become available (basically, when conference tournament brackets are set)
- "Top Remaining Seed" just means conference tournament seed, not RPI ranking
- As Auto-Bids are given out, chart will be sorted by Auto-Bid RPI. Until then, sorted by date

[SanityLost17]

I think it is pretty simple.  The HL needs either GB or Valpo to win the tournament to get a good seed.  Valpo and GB also need to face off in the championship game for the RPI boost.  Hats off to Oakland and CSU, but either of them winning will result in a 15 seed and a low possibility of success.

The more teams below that lose their conference tournament, the better chance at a favorable seed for Valpo/GB.   

Stephen F. Austin
Murray State
Wofford
Buffalo or Central Michigan
Iona
Harvard (better if Yale wins the regular season) 
Lousiana Tech or Old Dominion   
UC Davis   

[agibson]

Harvard (better if Yale wins the regular season) 

Even better if they both lose out!  But, yeah, even at the same record and same RPI, I'd take Yale over Harvard.

[vu84v2]

It seems like a #13 seed is the far most likely scenario. Iona and Wofford (and maybe Murray State) losing in the conference tournaments seem to be the only really likely cass that would push Valpo up.

Regardless, need to win Saturday and Tuesday to make it all possible.

[ValpoHoops]

Harvard (better if Yale wins the regular season) 

Even better if they both lose out!  But, yeah, even at the same record and same RPI, I'd take Yale over Harvard.

They play each other Friday night.

[justducky]

It seems like a #13 seed is the far most likely scenario. Iona and Wofford (and maybe Murray State) losing in the conference tournaments seem to be the only really likely cass that would push Valpo up.

Regardless, need to win Saturday and Tuesday to make it all possible.

It looks like our seeding range is from the worst 12 to the worst 13 if we win out. After that it becomes a question of best available matchup for the team. I hope they don't try to do us another favor (keeping us close to home) like they did with Michigan St. Sometimes a little travel can be beneficial to the spirit. 

If we lose (and all these teams can beat us) we now have the healthy horses for a nice NIT run. For those that don't remember we entered the 2012 NIT with part of the team coming down with, part of the team suffering from, and the rest of the team recovering from a nasty strain of the flu (I think a couple didn't even make the road trip). I would think after that a flu shot might now be team policy. 

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Thanks for this; could it also be noted if there are other conference teams behind the red that are also red or close to it?

That is, let's say Wichita State loses, which fine, they'll at-large anyway, but to a team that's (say) 53.  In effect, that pushes us down a spot rather than (say) a team at 135 winning it.

[mvandersee]

That is, let's say Wichita State loses, which fine, they'll at-large anyway, but to a team that's (say) 53.  In effect, that pushes us down a spot rather than (say) a team at 135 winning it.

Last I checked WSU and UNI were both top 15 for RPI and the next MVC team was Ill St. in the mid 70's, so not likely they could jump Valpo even with the Arch Madness Championship (I know you were talking more about the concept, not only that particular example, just thought I'd clear up one I know)

[ValpoHoops]

Thanks for this; could it also be noted if there are other conference teams behind the red that are also red or close to it?

It could be, but I'm going to leave it as is, so its nice and clean. If a #1 seed loses, I'll change it to the #2 team or #3 team or whatever.

No #1 seeds lost last night, and no movement of RPI, so no update today. Things should start changing soon, however, with tournaments ramping up and the Harvard/Yale game giving one of them a one-game lead with one to play in the Ivy.

[agibson]

the next MVC team was Ill St. in the mid 70's, so not likely they could jump Valpo even with the Arch Madness Championship

If Illinois State wins through against the top seeds, RPI Wizard has them at 48.  So, it could be real close.

[agibson]

They play each other Friday night.

Which is not going to help our RPI case... At least they play 200+ RPI games in their finales.

So, actually, it looks like if Yale wins out, and we beat CSU and GB (not sure if Detroit or Oakland would do it - may well _not_), we'd beat Yale by ~10 places in RPI.  Go Yale!

Funny league schedule they have, Friday-Saturday games all season.  Maybe good for academics.  I wonder how the travel is? They're _reasonably_ compact, but...

[VULB#62]

They play each other Friday night.

Funny league schedule they have, Friday-Saturday games all season.  Maybe good for academics.  I wonder how the travel is? They're _reasonably_ compact, but...

Yeah, the Ivy has had the weekend-only league format for as long as I can remember.  And you're right, they've clearly stated that it's to reduce mid week travel and missed classes.  Their academics-first policies extend to most of the major sports, e.g., soccer only plays 14 games while the rest of the NCAA plays 18; Football is precluded from the FCS playoffs, etc.  They will, however play midweek games against local colleges -- like maybe a Harvard - BU basketball game on a Wednesday night, but not overnight travel.  Even Hockey doesn't travel mid-week except locally.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

I did this two years ago

you did everything else 2 years ago...where've you been since?!?

[ValpoHoops]

I did this two years ago

you did everything else 2 years ago...where've you been since?!?

I've been around...reading and not posting. I haven't missed a home game in three years.

[frontrowfan]

I did this two years ago

you did everything else 2 years ago...where've you been since?!?

I've been around...reading and not posting. I haven't missed a home game in three years.

Me too!  signed in as a guest but this year felt like I should make a few comments

[ValpoHoops]

OK, so the NCAA is a little slower in updating their RPI page than I expected, so the RPI numbers are a day old, but the seeding is correct. This will all take care of itself in the end.

As coaches would say...we've got our own business to take care of before any of that matters. Fortunately, we are fans and we don't have to listen!

The first two bids COULD be handed out tonight. The Ohio Valley (Murray State escaped last night...down 11 with under 7:00 to play) will for sure, and Yale clinches the Ivy with a win or a Harvard loss. If Yale were to lose tonight and Harvard win, they would have a one-game playoff (the Ivy League does not use tiebreakers...they play for it).

There should also be a lot of movement the next couple of days. A ton of games, across the board from the small conferences to the majors.

[rink]

It seems like a #13 seed is the far most likely scenario.

Against a #4 seeded Baylor team, perhaps? That would be fun, despite automatically eliminating a rooting interest from game 1...

[ValpoHoops]

First ticket punched last night with Belmont. Three more today...

Team to root for today: Illinois State (vs. Northern Iowa), Monmouth (vs. Iona), Western Carolina (vs. Wofford)
To a lesser extent: Hofstra (vs. William & Mary), Northeastern (vs. UNC-Wilmington)

Once again, RPI data is a day behind (maybe I should sleep in before doing this...), but you'll get the idea.

[a3uge]

Illinois State would be around same RPI with 2 top 25 wins. Probably not getting seeded lower than a 12.

[HC]

I think Belmont should be green?
I like tables and graphs, nice work!

[ValpoHoops]

I think Belmont should be green?
I like tables and graphs, nice work!

You would be correct. With the time change, I didn't get much sleep last night 

[talksalot]

Am I the last one to see the ESPN March Madness promo spot?  Three buzzer beaters in Tournament time... Broeckhoff's "Shot 2.0" is the middle one!   and I see the game is getting "Scroll Mentions" on ESPN already.   

[agibson]

Monmouth (vs. Iona)

I notice Iona did lose at Monmouth.  Early in the season, by three, in a shootout.  On their way to a 17-3 conference record (all their losses have been on the road).

[Just Sayin]

First ticket punched last night with Belmont. Three more today...

Team to root for today: Illinois State (vs. Northern Iowa), Monmouth (vs. Iona), Western Carolina (vs. Wofford)
To a lesser extent: Hofstra (vs. William & Mary), Northeastern (vs. UNC-Wilmington)

Once again, RPI data is a day behind (maybe I should sleep in before doing this...), but you'll get the idea.

Palm updates daily and the numbers are rarely different from the NCAA official RPI, which often is a day behind. Valpo's RPI increased (bettered) from 67 to 59 after last night's victory:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/nitty-gritty-report

[Just Sayin]

Valpo's 59 RPI confirmed by official NCAA RPI:

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-rpi