ESPN Bubble Watch

[Kyle321n]

I plugged into RPI Wizard wins for every game and added a Milwaukee win (current 4 seed) on a neutral site. Then I compared an Oakland loss on a neutral site vs. a Youngstown St. loss also on a neutral site (current 2 seed vs. 7 seed).

Loss vs. Oakland

W-L	RPI*	SOS
26-5	27	151

Loss vs. Youngstown St.

W-L	RPI*	SOS
26-5	29	167

I would hope that an RPI of 29 would get us an at large. Last year Murray State (47), Old Dominion (41), Richmond (64), Colorado St. (37), and Miami (48) all missed out. Dayton (29) was one of the last 4 in last year.

[bbtds]

I have a feeling this will go down to the last few hours of trying to decide which 2 of 3 teams will make it on the day the selection committee makes it's hurried and final choices. Should I go into every restaurant in downtown Indy on selection Sunday morning with some Valpo gear on?

[Kyle321n]

I have a feeling this will go down to the last few hours of trying to decide which 2 of 3 teams will make it on the day the selection committee makes it's hurried and final choices. Should I go into every restaurant in downtown Indy on selection Sunday morning with some Valpo gear on?

I think we're going to make it a moot point, win out, win the conference tourney, hopefully play the best available teams for RPI in the tourney and grab a 6 or 7 seed.

Also in very VERY frustrating events, I ran RPI wizard with wins vs. Oakland and Milwaukee on neutral courts and we're 23rd in RPI, then I dropped UIC from our schedule with those 2 games and we move up to 15th in RPI. That's 2 seed lines and we could be a top 4 seed and be favored to make the sweet 16. UIC's awfulness is just a mindboggling anchor on our RPI.

[a3uge]

I have a feeling this will go down to the last few hours of trying to decide which 2 of 3 teams will make it on the day the selection committee makes it's hurried and final choices. Should I go into every restaurant in downtown Indy on selection Sunday morning with some Valpo gear on?

Probably wont do much good this year as it'll be in New York.

I actually ran by the Conrad a couple times with a Valpo shirt on last year on Selection Sunday. Guess it didn't work.

[bbtds]

I have a feeling this will go down to the last few hours of trying to decide which 2 of 3 teams will make it on the day the selection committee makes it's hurried and final choices. Should I go into every restaurant in downtown Indy on selection Sunday morning with some Valpo gear on?

Probably wont do much good this year as it'll be in New York.

I actually ran by the Conrad a couple times with a Valpo shirt on last year on Selection Sunday. Guess it didn't work.

Who came up with that brilliant idea? Do the CBS talking heads want to look the Selection Committee members in the eye?

[justducky]

I can relate to your frustration trying to understand how our projected RPI after the UIC win suddenly became several places lower than before the win. As you noted on 1 of your posts somewhere, it makes no sense. Thankfully, heres a rack-up that does make sense. Note that if we win our last 7 games our expected RPI is 28.1, which is better than where we were before the UIC game.

Final Record/Expected RPI/Probability
25-4   28.1   35.30%
24-5   36.9   41.68%
23-6   48.1   18.49%

The Warren Nolan predicted RPI with a 24-5 record still places us at 41 vs the rpiforcast number of 36.9. Is the 4.1 difference a product of who they both think we might lose to? If not that then what?

Some of this forecasted RPI decline becomes understandable upon my rethinking. Both Belmont and Indiana St lost to teams they should have beaten with their RPIs declining significantly. Then because of their RPI decline more losses are then predicted which feeds back to a future RPI decline for VU as well.

I don't know what happened to Indiana St at Bradley. Maybe some players were sick or suspended or hurt but the RPI forecasting machine does not care. Nothing is one off so the fact that you played poorly or well in your last game is used as part of the prediction process for all of your upcoming games. Maybe out of habit coach Wardle needed to land a few punches against us and this was the only way he could do it.

[agibson]

The Warren Nolan predicted RPI with a 24-5 record still places us at 41 vs the rpiforcast number of 36.9. Is the 4.1 difference a product of who they both think we might lose to? If not that then what?

At this point it doesn't matter _who_ we lose to (except to the extent that our conference tournament games are undetermined), only how many losses we pick up (or don't! knock on wood).

I love Warren Nolan's site, but I don't know how he does his predictions. His predicted RPI's late in the non-conference, and maybe early in the conference, season looked pretty unlikely. He was still predicting us with a _very_ high RPI (like top 20) even when it was completely clear (at least to the extent that I trust RPI Forecast; where I have somewhat greater knowledge and faith) that our conference schedule was going to drag us down. It seemed like his calculations were either just wrong, or that he was assuming very optimistic future results from our non-conference opponents.

[wh]

The Warren Nolan predicted RPI with a 24-5 record still places us at 41 vs the rpiforcast number of 36.9. Is the 4.1 difference a product of who they both think we might lose to? If not that then what?

At this point it doesn't matter _who_ we lose to (except to the extent that our conference tournament games are undetermined), only how many losses we pick up (or don't! knock on wood).

Yes and no. A home loss will have a bigger negative impact on RPI than a road loss due to the weighting difference. 

[agibson]

Yes and no. A home loss will have a bigger negative impact on RPI than a road loss due to the weighting difference. 

Argh!  Duly corrected.

[a3uge]

Nolan's RPI uses his own prediction formula, while RPI forecast uses Sagarin's predictor (with thousands of rest-of-season simulations averaged together).

[agibson]

Nolan's RPI uses his own prediction formula, while RPI forecast uses Sagarin's predictor (with thousands of rest-of-season simulations averaged together).

For RPI forecast at least that's just the input, the initial weighting of teams.

There's presumably a number of other choices made in the model before you get to the end result.  WN's results have smelled funny, as I mentioned, or at least sharply different from RPI Forecast.

[valpocleveland]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

"Valparaiso is among the nation's best mid-major teams, starring one of the best players (forward Alec Peters) in any league anywhere. Chattanooga is 22-3 with a win at -- this is where we dramatically shift our glasses up and down our face a la Matt Foley -- does that say Dayton? Odin's beard! A warm Bubble Watch welcome goes out to both."

"Valparaiso [20-4 (10-1), RPI: 49, SOS: 188] If Chattanooga is on, we might as well throw Valpo in the mix too. The Crusaders are similarly superior to their mid-major league (10-1 in the Horizon). They have a similar RPI number, a far more favorable nonconference schedule, one more top-100 win, and the same number of sub-150 losses. Where Chattanooga got a genuinely marquee victory at Dayton, however, Bryce Drew's team had to settle for a W at Oregon State. Nice, sure, but it's no Dayton. Or, for that matter, Oregon. (The Ducks held on for a 73-67 win back on Nov. 22.) The Crusaders spent much of November and December intermittently banged up. Now healthy, they play the stingiest per-possession defense in the country, while star forward Alec Peters is basically Iowa's Jarrod Uthoff without the blocked shots. That may, in the end, be Valpo's trump card: They're just really good. Better than their resume hints, anyway."

[agibson]

They act like Chattanooga's win at Dayton happened yesterday (and like Dayton is God's gift to basketball). A strange business. But nice to see Valpo "formally" on the list.

[HailVU2014]

Here are 2 Fox Sports Articles that have quite the elaborate section about us and NCAA situation after this weekend and the road ahead:

We are at the end on this one:
http://www.foxsports.com/college-basketball/story/ncaa-tournament-bubble-teams-wisconsin-butler-lsu-ucla-xavier-michigan-cal-alabama-021516

We are #9 on this one:
http://www.foxsports.com/college-basketball/story/ncaa-tournament-committee-selection-sunday-process-bubble-teams-021616


Also, I did not see anyone mention this, but late last week the NCAA held some media members for a mock NCAA selection committee workshop in Indy. They went through the motions of what all goes into the process of selecting teams, seeding teams, etc. For the exercise, they actually pretended that Valpo lost to Oakland in the Horizon League Tournament to fuel the mid-major vs. major debate. Needless to say Valpo was among the first 4 teams out and Oakland was a #15 seed against Maryland. (Note: This was before the Wright State loss.)

Here are some articles on it each with the Final Bracket:
http://nypost.com/2016/02/12/mock-ncaa-bracket-takeaways-seton-hall-on-edge-big-12-power/
http://www.coloradoan.com/story/sports/csu/mens-basketball/2016/02/13/mountain-one-bid-league-ncaa-mock-selection/80336276/

[bbtds]

You can't really blame Donlon for not trying to help us after just beating us.

Wright State head coach Billy Donlon was fired up at the post-game press conference. He gave one of the most spirited defenses of an opponent's NCAA tournament worthiness that I've ever heard.

"Valpo's an at-large team – I don't care what anybody says," Donlon said, nearly shouting. "If this team played in the ACC they would finish in the top half and get an at-large. People pick whatever metrics they want. Let me tell you – that team will wins games in the NCAA tournament. They're every bit as good as the Butler teams (that went to the Final Four out of the Horizon League). They're right there."

This is part of the unfairness of being a mid-major team on the bubble. The scales are weighted against you. You have to get good wins to prove your worth, but you have only a handful of chances at those good wins in non-conference play.

"It's pick-a-metric in the NCAA tournament," Donlon said. "It's the haves versus the so-called have-nots." It'll be an absolute travesty, whatever happens, if these guys don't make the NCAA tournament."

I'm sure plenty of coaches of bubble teams feel the same way about their own squad.

And now there are four weeks left. So state your cases, bubble teams. It's time to prove your worth.

I agree with Fox Sports writer. Put up or shut up about the NCAA tournament. It's time for Valpo to stop making mistakes and win an NCAA tournament bid!

[bbtds]

To create debate, several mid-major teams leading their conferences at the moment didn't receive automatic bids, and became part of at-large consideration: Monmouth was debated in the MAAC (with Siena winning it), Valparaiso in the Horizon League (Oakland) and Chattanooga in the Southern Conference (Mercer). Also, Columbia was credited with winning the Ivy League, not Yale, the leader at the moment; St. Bonaventure won the Atlantic 10; UConn won the American; and San Diego State won the Mountain West.

The most debate, predictably, revolved around the final bubble teams, pitting mid-majors against power-conference teams. Valparaiso, the best defensive team in the country according to KenPom.com, was left out. So were Chattanooga and William & Mary, who also were considered. But there was a strong sentiment to include Valparaiso over the likes of Butler, Michigan, Wisconsin and Temple. Losing to good teams only goes so far. We're talking about you, Michigan, which has only two top-100 wins. Time to pile up some victories.

It seems to me that if it is this difficult to pick a worthy field of 68 teams then the NCAA should expand the field by another 8 teams and have another location, besides Dayton, that hosts four "1st round/play-in" games.

[justducky]

This has nothing to do with the ESPN Bubble Watch and everything to do my own observations. These observations include the morning of Feb 25 Sag, Pomeroy and Warren Nolan with attention to OOC SOS and OOC road games.

The Bracket Matrix first 4 out are Alabama, Gonzaga, St Bonaventure and Vanderbilt. Next 5 out are George Washington, LSU, Florida St, Creighton, and Washington.

My blanket assumption is that Valpo and each of these above listed teams wins all of their remaining regular season games in which they are favored or near equally favored to win. My second assumption is that each team wins one conference tournament game before losing its second (a loss to Oakland).

If this played out as assumed then I would feel totally "grab your gun" insulted to be placed behind Florida St, Creighton or Washington. I would feel angrily insulted to be behind LSU and slightly less so for Vanderbilt. I would feel totally neck and neck with both Gonzaga and George Washington. The remaining 2 of St Bonaventure and Alabama might be given my nod if I were on the committee. 

[jloose128]

Valpo is back on the Bubble Watch this week:

Valparaiso [26-5 (16-2), RPI: 42, SOS: 186] Let's throw the Crusaders back on here, if only because there's a chance that their road win at Oregon State -- which, hey, is a top-30 RPI victory! -- will start to look even better before Selection Sunday. Meanwhile, Bryce Drew's team did finish the regular season with a 16-2 record against the Horizon League, the same tally Wichita State racked up in the Missouri Valley Conference. No one here is arguing that Valpo is actually better than the Shockers, and the Horizon is at least a notch behind the Valley in terms of overall league strength. But the same principle applies: This is a really good team that was banged up in nonconference play and -- in the Watch's humble opinion -- probably deserves to be in the tournament at the end of the day. We'll see.

It's not any consolation, but none of the other mid-majors (aside from Wichita State obviously) in their consideration for an at-large have both a lower RPI and SOS than Valpo. Arkansas-Little Rock's RPI is 38, and with their weak conference, I'm pretty sure two decent HL tournament wins would propel us above them (not that RPI is the only indicator of course).

[valpocleveland]

Valpo is back on the Bubble Watch this week:

Valparaiso [26-5 (16-2), RPI: 42, SOS: 186] Let's throw the Crusaders back on here, if only because there's a chance that their road win at Oregon State -- which, hey, is a top-30 RPI victory! -- will start to look even better before Selection Sunday. Meanwhile, Bryce Drew's team did finish the regular season with a 16-2 record against the Horizon League, the same tally Wichita State racked up in the Missouri Valley Conference. No one here is arguing that Valpo is actually better than the Shockers, and the Horizon is at least a notch behind the Valley in terms of overall league strength. But the same principle applies: This is a really good team that was banged up in nonconference play and -- in the Watch's humble opinion -- probably deserves to be in the tournament at the end of the day. We'll see.

It's not any consolation, but none of the other mid-majors (aside from Wichita State obviously) in their consideration for an at-large have both a lower RPI and SOS than Valpo. Arkansas-Little Rock's RPI is 38, and with their weak conference, I'm pretty sure two decent HL tournament wins would propel us above them (not that RPI is the only indicator of course).

2 more wins and it won't matter, we will get the Horizon auto bid.

[VULB#62]

Taking the pessimistic view (just for the moment and for discussion sake only), IF we were to lose in the HLT, which loss would be more devastating to any post season stuff: semi or final?

[valpocleveland]

Taking the pessimistic view (just for the moment and for discussion sake only), IF we were to lose in the HLT, which loss would be more devastating to any post season stuff: semi or final?

Semi loss, no question. From an RPI standpoint and also from a talking head standpoint: "Valpo couldn't even make it to the weak Horizon league title game".

[VULB#62]

Yep, both those points say it all. 

[oklahomamick]

Doug Gottlieb said Valpo should be in as at-large.  Also said he saw the Pacer last night during the Baylor game. 

[agibson]

Also said he saw the Pacer last night during the Baylor game. 

I'm told they ran something similar earlier this season. But, this, at half time, seems like pretty much the real deal.

[tweet]704846243130908672[/tweet]

[oklahomamick]

Someone asked Gottlieb about dangerous midmajors.  He replied, "St Marys, UT Chat, South Dakota State,SFA,ULAR, Yale all pretty good."

I asked, where is Valpo?

Gottieb replied, "Someone asks about Mid majors that are good, stating Valpo, Wichita is broken record stuff, hope you understand."