The Murray State Racers come to the ARC to take on the Beacons to open conference play for Valpo in the Valley. Murray didn't take much time to get rolling with a first-year head coach. They sit at 8-3 early in the year but will have a game between now and Sunday at home against Drake (12/18) to break into league play before the Sunday showdown. Murray comes in at 94 in the KenPom rankings with impressive mid-major wins vs. Akron and George Washington. They don’t have a terrible loss so far, losing at SMU and to Middle Tennessee and McNeese on a neutral floor.
Murray plays a fast tempo and likes to score points—they score more points than any team in the Valley. They shoot a lot of threes; in fact, 37.4% of their shots come from downtown, and they make them at 38%. They shoot more 3-point field goals than any team in the Valley and hit more, averaging 11.27 3-point makes a game. Murray shoots well from inside the arc too—their 2PT% comes in at 58.3% (38th in the nation), although they only attempt 42.2% of their shots from this distance (327th in the nation). Murray shoots 74% from the line, which is 4th best in the Valley, where they achieve 20.4% of their output from. Rebounding is another strong suit of the Racers—they are outrebounding teams at +4.73, while Valpo sits at a +1 margin. While Murray scores a lot of points, they also give up a lot as well—they are last in the Valley in scoring defense, giving up 78.5 points per game and allowing teams to shoot at almost a 45% clip.
Murray’s top contributors are Javon Jackson (6-3 Sr. G), who transferred from UIC—a familiar name from last year. He is averaging 16 PPG, which is 3rd in the Valley. Roman Domon (6-9 Fr. F) is averaging 12 PPG and 5.5 RPG, and Fred King (6-9, 270 lb Sr. C), who leads the Valley in rebounding two spots ahead of Shon at 8.2 RPG and scoring 12 PPG. Murray overall is a deep team with 10 players averaging double-digit minutes, getting fairly balanced scoring out of the supporting cast. From a size and physicality standpoint, Murray and Valpo are pretty equal.
In my opinion, Valpo is going to have to defend the 3-point line very well and be in a position to contest every shot to take away opportunities. We can’t allow open looks from downtown—generally, Valpo has done a good job at this. I will look for the Beacons to play pressure defense across the board to contest shots in the half court. Valpo will need to guard against transition opportunities and have really good defensive rotation to maintain adequate positioning with Murray’s tempo. It will be critical to own the glass in this one—limiting offensive second chances from Murray with good defensive rebounding, while at the same time looking to capitalize on our own offensive rebounding abilities to generate second chances for us. Valpo will need to slow it down and work in the half court as much as possible to help limit possessions. Murray is going to want to score quickly; slowing them down will limit their possessions given their shooting percentages and not allow them to establish the rhythm they want to play.
Keys for Valpo will be finding open looks on the perimeter—Murray is one of the best perimeter-defending teams in the nation; they don’t allow teams many open attempts. If a 3-pointer is open, Valpo will have to convert—we can’t afford those desperation fadeaway threes. With tight perimeter defense, Valpo may look for Chaney, Barnes, and McNair to slash the lane for a jumper or attack the basket often to beat a tight defender. Pettigrew may look to face up, and executing the high-low game in the post may prove useful. Extra importance on setting solid screens to create spacing. Can and will Valpo hit open shots? KenPom has this one predicted as a close 80-75 loss with a 32% chance of winning. Let’s start the conference season with a solid win—we can do it.
Merry Christmas to the forum, I hope your holiday is bright.
Murray St. plays Drake tonight if you can find it on your friendly device.
Good start. Sure feels like the past few games again. Can we separate in the second though...
I don't know what's more frustrating. Constantly playing uncompetitive matches.
Or constantly being so close to pulling out a good win, but either being screwed over by poor officiating and/or injuries late in the game on key players
screwed over by poor officiating
I usually try not to blame officiating for a loss, but I did have some questions in this game. First, as I watched I felt too many fouls were being called much of the game, which broke up the flow and made the good play on both sides less enjoyable to watch.
Second, when I looked at the stats, I noticed an oddity. Both teams played fairly even in almost all categories; M-V: 6-18 to 7-18 in 3-point shots, 49%-48% in field goals, 36-34 in rebounds, 10-11 in offensive rebounds, 11-11 in turnovers, 5-4 in steals, 38-34 for points in the paint, 8-8 in fast break points. Normally, such stats would result in fairly even free throw attempts as well; however, Valpo was called for 7 more fouls and Murray got 13 more free throws, which to their credit they made. Consequently, although Valpo scored 7 more points from the field, they lost by 6 points.
I watched the postgame conference: in a question from Paul about foul disparity and Coach Powell's answer, both seemed to hint something was off as well, while carefully avoiding pointing directly at the officials. I also agreed with Powell's frustration and anger that just competing throughout a game is not good enough. The team must finish games and win.
Murray was in the bonus early in the second half and they converted at the line. There certainly were few bad calls in the first part of the second half that swung the flow into Murray’s favor. JT seemed to have a tough game, Carter seemed to attack and played better, Thomas took minutes from Mark Brown and Justus gobbled up any of his remaining minutes, I still see value with mark but we will see as the year goes on what his role is. I don’t disagree with where his minutes went today. Justus and Thomas played their role. Owen specifically but the team over all shot well. The first half was executed well, this team played to their potential for the most part. In the second half we had a little more trouble adjusting the officiating flow. The fouls got lopsided from questionable calls/defensive breakdowns Murray was in the bonus with 12:00 minutes left. Murray capitalized a bit better, and executed a better last 3 minutes. Valpo played good and there is a lot to be encouraged about. I think we match up with UNI pretty good, on to the next one.
Being an official myself I try not to blame officials as well, but when there is such blatant offenses, there is not much you can do. Ultimately this team can be a top team in the MVC which is a lot more than recent years
Murray shot 28 free throws to Valpos 15. Domon #77 for Murray went 11-14 which basically closed our margin to win.
Several of Domon's "fouls" were completely manufactured. He did an excellent job convincing the refs that he had been fouled.
Got to learn to finish.
If we want something glass half full, this is still the makings of one of the better teams Valpo has seen in the 2020s. Of all the things to fix. Be grateful that it's just the final 5 minutes when this team has had a plethora of problems in previous years
As gut wrenching as the close losses have been, I enjoy watching this team play. I have not really been able to say that for 1-2 years since I graduated from VU...
