Redbirds Fly Into the ARC: Can Valpo Ground the MVC Favorites?
The preseason favorites in the Missouri Valley Conference, the Illinois State Redbirds (12-3, 4-0), bring a four-game winning streak into the ARC to face the Valparaiso Beacons (7-8, 1-3) in a key conference showdown. These teams met just once last season in Normal, where ISU handed Valpo an eight-point loss. This time, the Beacons will look to flip the script at home.
Illinois State enters the game riding high after a dominant 73-47 win over Evansville on New Year’s Day. Valpo, meanwhile, snapped a five-game skid with a gritty win over UIC on Sunday, hoping to build momentum in front of the home crowd.
Why Illinois State Is Dangerous
The Redbirds return an experienced core and were picked as the preseason MVC favorite for good reason. They boast one of the most seasoned rosters in the nation, with continuity and depth that few teams can match. ISU is strong on both ends of the floor, shooting 35% from three and 57.9% from two, ranking in the top 100 nationally in both categories.
Statistically, Illinois State leads the MVC in scoring margin and ranks top three in nearly every major category: scoring offense, scoring defense, field goal percentage, defensive field goal percentage, three-point shooting, defensive rebounding, rebounding margin, and assist-to-turnover ratio. They’re deep, too—10 players average more than 10 minutes per game, and five players score in double figures.
Players to Watch
Chase Walker (F) – Preseason MVC Player of the Year candidate, leads ISU with 13.4 PPG and 5.4 RPG.
Jonny Kinzinger (G) – Another preseason all-MVC pick, averaging 11.9 PPG and 2.7 APG.
Ty Pence, Ty’Reek Coleman, Boden Skunberg – All three guards shoot better than 43% from beyond the arc, giving ISU a lethal perimeter attack.
The Redbirds thrive in the halfcourt and execute a balanced offensive system that keeps defenses guessing.
Where Valpo Can Strike
Despite ISU’s strengths, there are cracks to exploit:
Free Throws: The Redbirds shoot just 68% from the line—a liability in close games.
Offensive Rebounding: ISU isn’t elite on the offensive glass, so limiting second-chance points will be key.
Foul Trouble: Walker has a history of foul issues. If Valpo can attack early and get him off the floor, ISU’s frontcourt depth could be tested.
Valpo enters with confidence after beating UIC and will look to capitalize on these opportunities. The Valley is competitive, and games often hinge on one or two possessions. If the Beacons can find an offensive spark, this matchup could be closer than expected.
KenPom projects a 66-72 loss for Valpo with a 29% chance of victory, but momentum and home-court advantage can change everything. Coming off Sunday’s win, don’t be surprised if the Beacons make this one interesting, they can pull out the win. Lets go Valpo!
So we have a team with an inside presence in Walker, a very good guard in Kinzinger and 3 other guys who can shoot better than anyone on Valpo's roster.
@jd24 pretty much, I know ISU is good and we could be disappointed Wednesday. I also have watched enough basketball to know this could be very competitive with Valpo being in a position to win. ISU still has to come into our building and prove who they are, we won’t be giving anything to them. I’m optimistic, I believe in our guys!
I’d like to believe that the ARC is anything better than a neutral court, but the apathy is louder than the fans showing up these days. I watched the most recent game on ESPN+. It hurts my heart that I didn’t go to more basketball games back when they made the NCAA Tournament each year I was there.
I don’t know what the answer is except to win, but how does Valpo do that in the NIL era?
@mj08 You should look at ticket prices around the country let alone the MVC. 15 bucks is cheap. Evansville, an arguably worse program year in and year out. Charges 25 dollars for tickets. Albeit that is the price the Ford Center sets most likely.
UIC charges 30 dollars for tickets and they actually own the building they play in
I would say its out of sorts to charge that much for tickets for the product those teams put out
This post was modified 2 months ago 3 times by Rez
@mj08 You should look at ticket prices around the country let alone the MVC. 15 bucks is cheap. Evansville, an arguably worse program year in and year out. Charges 25 dollars for tickets. Albeit that is the price the Ford Center sets most likely.
UIC charges 30 dollars for tickets and they actually own the building they play in
I would say its out of sorts to charge that much for tickets for the product those teams put out
I’m with you, @rezynezy —$15 a ticket is an incredible value for live basketball. Even if you’re not focused on supporting Valpo specifically, the ARC hosts plenty of strong teams throughout the season. If you appreciate the fundamentals and the excitement of the game, it’s absolutely worth the price.
The Missouri Valley Conference is currently ranked as the 9th-best conference in the NCAA, so we’re fortunate to have access to this level of basketball for just $15. Honestly, that’s less than what many combo meals cost these days! @mj08 if $15.00 dollars is keeping you away from the ARC when otherwise you want to go, send me a message, I am always willing to help get you to a game or two if that's the limiting factor.
I’d like to believe that the ARC is anything better than a neutral court, but the apathy is louder than the fans showing up these days. I watched the most recent game on ESPN+. It hurts my heart that I didn’t go to more basketball games back when they made the NCAA Tournament each year I was there.
I don’t know what the answer is except to win, but how does Valpo do that in the NIL era?
Valpo performs slightly better at home by the metrics, so don’t panic—your belief is valid, even if a bit fragile right now. Honestly, the vibe in the ARC during conference play feels much better than it did for most of the non-conference games. I’m inclined to think fans will keep showing up and that attendance could grow.
Outside of our current shooting struggles, we’re not a bad team and we have potential on any given night. If you regret not going to more games back in the day, don’t sulk, my friend—come join us in Section G with some Valpo gear, and we’ll cheer together. Enthusiasm is contagious, and we’ll have a great time regardless of the outcome!
You should look at ticket prices around the country let alone the MVC.
Ah the old “Everyone else is doing it” excuse. The sellout crowds we have at the ARC seem to indicate the pricing strategy is working!
@mj08 While it may seem that every team in our conference sells out each game, the data tells a different story. The Missouri Valley Conference publishes official attendance figures, and I’ve included them below for reference. In fact, only one team consistently fills more than 50% of its arena capacity. Additionally, ticket prices for games at the ARC are comparable to, and often lower than, those at other Valley venues. Based on these facts, the argument for a pricing strategy adjustment may need reconsideration.
If you appreciate the fundamentals and the excitement of the game, it’s absolutely worth the price.
Ok, but for the average person who is looking to occupy a few hours in an afternoon, it’s not a great value.
College basketball is full of fair-weather fans.
Fan attendance trends in college basketball often fluctuate, but this does not reflect the actual value of ticket pricing at the ARC compared to similar venues in the conference. When evaluating pricing strategies, it’s important to consider market comparisons rather than attendance variability. What the "Average" person is looking for in a few hours in the afternoon is such an objective consideration. Ill concede that winning more will likely result in more people coming to the ARC.
But the current ticket prices, relative to the product on the court, is completely out of sorts.
Maybe. I think the problem is apathy with the availability of ESPN. Witness Miami of Ohio, one of a handful of still undefeated teams remaining in the nation--now at 16-0! Last night they beat Western Michigan 87-76 (a team Valpo beat 84-55!) at home, in front of an announced crowd of 1407!!!!! their arena has a seating capacity of 9200. Go figure.
"Fair-weather fans" used to be a term of denigration. However, in today's NCAA circumstances the phrase is openly accepted by many. I confess that my approach has changed dramatically. I still root for the university to do well, but I have little interest in individual players: they are just jerseys with numbers that will have different names next year. The transfer portal also has me doubting the student-athlete label. If a player only expects to attend VU one year, how does he plan a major or why would he take difficult classes rather than easily transferable credits?
This is not just a mid-major situation. A good friend who was once a faculty member at Kansas and die-hard fan has lost enthusiasm as well. As Paul recently highlighted on X, the prominence of NIL money and the constant turnover due to the transfer portal have diminished fan loyalty. He quoted an article with a comment from a longtime Colorado booster: "You give them [that] check and the guy’s gone tomorrow. To hell with that."
@mj08 huh? What does this have anything to do with everyone else is doing it? All I did was provide examples of worse teams who charge more for seats, and those were just tickets for teams in the MVC. I did not say Valpo should charge more at all. My point proves that the price point is low relative to the other schools in the conference in similar situations. And as others have said. ESPN and the past quality of product (in addition to. The access to other larger, more successful products in <2hrs from Valparaiso) keep people away a lot more than the price does. Even if ARC tickets were 5 dollars, you would still find it hard to fill seats on union street. If anything it's pricey. It's the chair back section. But that is done intentionally as they want people to sit on the bleacher side as that looks better for TV if it's Fuller than the chairbacks
This post was modified 2 months ago 2 times by Rez
