As Paul mentioned, VU only attempted 4 shots in the final 7:42 of the game and held off SIU by converting FTs. I was not able to watch but followed LiveStats play-by-play closely.
Two things were frustrating in those last seven minutes. One was the missed FTs that for players like JT and Owen normally are automatic. But sometimes ya just miss. I get that. The other thing is both frustrating and confusing, because I couldn’t see why it was happening. And that was, despite having a solid lead, the number of fouls our players were committing on defense that allowed SIU to creep closer and closer as the clock wound down. Why were we doing that? Can someone who actually watched the game explain how that came to be?
The game got a lot more physical in the second half. Also, it got more sloppy because of their press. They clearly had their plan for Owen and JT. Neither got it going so hats off to our bench. Fabulous dunk by Carter!
I can’t remember all the fouls, but in general, they were driving to basket and forcing contact in traffic. I also remember that Owen Dease and SIU player feet got tangled and the refs called a foul on Dease.
IMOP. Valpo just kept losing 50/50s mostly. There were some where it could be seen as either incidental contact or an iniation from the offensive team, or in a few select caskes, blatant pushing off and a no call, but the thing is, the men didn't ball. They kept their nose to the grindstone and won a game.
@iyellatgames I agree. This is the second game McNair has had a high-scoring first half and then sits most of the second. What gives?
If Roger Powell can play 12 guys to produce MVC wins then I'm not too concerned about who is on the floor at any given moment in time.@iyellatgames I agree. This is the second game McNair has had a high-scoring first half and then sits most of the second. What gives?
@justducky I totally agree. We have a deep bench and it’s nice to see other players step up when the opposing team shuts down another good player. Just seems like when Dease or JT are on a run they play minutes, like 35 minutes. The second half just got a little too close for comfort when we were up 20 at the half. But a win is a win no matter how we get there!
The beauty of this is that we won, but there is plenty of things for coaching staff to work on with team that will continue to make them better. This team is learning and growing!
Despite a win. Valpo moves down to 171 from previous 169
We are getting to the point in the season, that individual home wins won’t move the needle that much on NET rankings. We will need sustained success and a couple road wins to move up. So, probably take 4 game chunks. We were at 169 before the SIU game, where will we be after the 1st Bradley game, then after the 2nd Indiana State game, then finally the end of the season? Breaking 150 in the NET will likely be the best that we will see. However, I could see our KenPom ranking be a lot better than that.
For fun, because we have this weekend as a bye game, and because its been a topic of interest for me, I took a deeper look into the contribution of Justus comparing last year to this year offensively. I also compared his performance this year against our teams other significant contributors.
I think that last year—and for much of this year—Justus has been used as a spark plug, someone who comes in to give an immediate scoring boost. When he’s rolling, he tends to get a longer stretch, but the staff still uses him in spurts. However, as the season continues, I really believe his utilization should increase. It’s definitely tough to find minutes on a roster with a deep bench, but he’s making a strong case for himself.
Justus has done a great job limiting turnovers, improving his defensive rebounding, and using his speed and quickness on both ends of the floor on a game‑by‑game basis. As his shooting consistency continues to develop from 3, he’s going to make it very hard for Powell not to keep him on the floor.
As the one experienced returner this season, I feel a bit of loyalty toward wanting to see his playing time grow—especially because his play supports that increase. He absolutely has a role on this team, and I can’t help but get excited whenever he checks into the game. Below I graphed his stats from last year and compared them to games played so far this year.
Year over year observations for Justus
Bigger role, better results: %Min +9.5 (26.2 → 35.7) with ORtg +9.5 (99.0 → 108.5). More trust and more efficiency.
Scoring efficiency up: TS% +6.4 and eFG% +4.1, driven by 2P% +5.0. Perimeter accuracy is essentially flat (3P% +0.1).
Rim pressure leap: FTRate +25.3 (28.6 → 53.9) and FD/40 +2.0, plus a small uptick in FT% +2.0.
Creation growth: ARate +9.4 shows much more table‑setting. Tradeoff: TORate +4.1 and FC/40 +0.7 (more on‑ball, more contact).
Board work shifts: DR% +1.3 (better help on the glass), OR% −0.8 (likely role/spacing).
Looking at offensive ratings of our top 6 players statistically: For all games so far this season Justus in RED.
Looking at offensive ratings of our top 6 players statistically: For conference only games, Justus in RED.
Looking at the data, Justus has clearly played better this year in more minutes. It’s fair to say that with improved second‑year numbers overall—combined with an increase in playing time compared to his freshman season—his sophomore leap has materialized so far. This is especially true when factoring in that this year’s team is significantly better than last year’s group.
From a rotation standpoint, his offensive value appears comparatively underutilized. This season, and especially as conference play has progressed, he has statistically been one of our top four offensive players. Yet he is averaging the eighth‑most minutes on the team at just 14.3 minutes per game overall. In conference play, he has earned a larger share of minutes at 17.8 per game sixth-most minutes, which coincides with better offensive production, improved team play, and more wins recently.
Of course, minutes aren’t determined by offensive performance alone. A player’s size, defensive ability, matchup considerations, game strategy, attitude, and recent play all influence rotation decisions. However, after reviewing the numbers, it does not seem coincidental that Justus has been a key part of our recent success. His performance demonstrates that he should be receiving more minutes as we head into the back half of the schedule.
He is a very important piece of this team—one who could reasonably justify a starting spot.
@iyellatgames Impressive case Bryan. Also gives a great perspective on the core contributors.
