Aces Seek Answers as Beacons Aim to Earn a Win at Home
Two programs searching for traction late in the Missouri Valley Conference season will meet Friday night at the Athletics Recreation Center, though they arrive there from very different paths.
Evansville limps into Valparaiso mired in a season-long struggle that has shown few signs of relief. The Purple Aces have dropped five straight games and 13 of their last 14 overall, including a 1–11 mark in conference play that leaves them alone in last place in the Valley standings. With February well under way, Evansville is still searching for momentum — and, increasingly, answers.
Valparaiso, meanwhile, occupies eighth place in the league with more than half of its conference slate complete. While the Beacons remain in the bottom half of the standings, they enter Friday’s matchup with an opportunity to steady themselves at home against a struggling opponent as the league race enters its final stretch to the madness in St Louis.
Last time out, Evansville last played at home, where it fell 84–63 to Indiana State in a game that slipped away early. Despite the lopsided score, freshman Leif Moeller continued his strong individual stretch, leading all scorers with 22 points. Fellow freshman Bryce Quinet chipped in 12 points, while AJ Casey added 10 to round out the Aces’ double-figure scorers.
One of the more notable developments for Evansville was the limited return of Conor Turnbull. The defensive-minded big man, sidelined for much of the season by injury, logged 15 minutes against Indiana State and scored three points. Whether Turnbull will see expanded minutes — or be available at all — against Valparaiso remains an open question.
Valparaiso is coming off a 72–65 road loss to Bradley, a game in which the Beacons struggled to have control from the opening tip. Justus McNair provided a bright spot off the bench, scoring 17 points in a career-high 29 minutes without committing a turnover. Owen Dease added 16 points, and Rakim Chaney finished with 11.
Ultimately, free throws proved costly for Valparaiso. The Beacons struggled both to reach the line and to capitalize when opportunities arose, a margin that loomed large in a seven-point road defeat.
From a metrics standpoint, Evansville’s challenges are extensive. Offensively, the Purple Aces rank near the bottom nationally in nearly every major category, including adjusted efficiency, effective field goal percentage, turnover rate, offensive rebounding, three-point shooting, and steal percentage. All of those measures sit in the 300s nationally.
Defensively, the picture is not much brighter. Evansville ranks in the bottom third of Division I across most defensive metrics, and those struggles have carried over into conference play, where the Aces consistently place 10th or 11th in many Valley statistical categories.
There are, however, a few areas of modest optimism. Evansville shoots respectably from the free-throw line when it can get there, rebounds adequately on the defensive end, and fouls less frequently than the average Valley team. Still, those positives have not been enough to offset broader inefficiencies, a reality that has tested the patience of the program’s fan base.
For Valparaiso, the formula is straightforward: execute at home and avoid letting a struggling opponent hang around. The Beacons are viewed as the stronger team and will look to reverse a recent trend, having dropped the last four meetings between the two programs.
Analytical projections favor Valparaiso to do just that. KenPom lists the Beacons as a solid favorite, projecting a 74–62 outcome and assigning Valparaiso an 86 percent chance to win.
For Evansville, Friday represents another chance — perhaps a shrinking one — to find something to build upon before the season slips further away. For Valparaiso, it is an opportunity to take care of business, stabilize its conference position, and protect home court as the Missouri Valley season moves toward its conclusion.
Friday night’s matchup tips off at the ARC, where consistency, urgency, and execution will all be under the spotlight.
I’m heading out on vacation next week. I’ll still be keeping an eye on the team’s road trip, but I won’t be able to put together game thread previews for the next few games.
You do a great job with these pre-game summaries Bryan and we appreciate it. Turnbull's status is the key factor in Evansville being competitive on Friday night. He is player that Valpo wanted when he transferred from Butler and he hurt us badly last year when we played them. He essentially missed all of January which magnified Evansville's issues. With him they are a much different team albeit one we should still beat. We obviously need this one to make a move in the standings as the rest of the middle of the MVC pack have very tough games on Friday night.
Net rankings update: before the SIU win we were at 169, after going 2-2 in the last 4 games, we have moved up to 157. That’s better than I expected. 150 certainly seems in reach. Can we beat our best since joining MVC of 138?
Need Hoppoi to step up big time in this one. JT has been dealing with some knee issues for the past few games and needs the break. Brody is likely a precaution as he took that hard fall
Because of the trio who are questionable Servilus might also get 15 minutes, so this could be another good test of our bench strengthNeed Hoppoi to step up big time in this one. JT has been dealing with some knee issues for the past few games and needs the break. Brody is likely a precaution as he took that hard fall
-10.5 seems a little steep for the line. Aces might have waved the white flag on the season the last game. When’s the last time we’ve jumped an opponent from the opening tip and kept our foot on their necks the whole first half? Tonight would be a great night to do that! Free throw attempts, making 3’s, transition opportunities, look to run more.
It can be frustrating when our bench steps up and brings us back into the game, only for us to bring the starters in during the final moments and end up going into overtime. Sader and Carter have truly earned their extended playing time, consistently out-hustling our starters. I'm very proud of the team's growth, but we tend to fall into a pattern of running the same plays with the same players, and eventually, the well runs dry.
There was some uninspired, maybe lazy, maybe selfish first half play that nearly costs us the game when the Aces heated up.
I'm now thinking that I've clearly under appreciated the stability and experience that Brody Whitaker brings to our game. The offense really struggled with the defensive changes Evansville was making which led to poor shot selection and the pressure of expiring shot clocks. There is much that can be learned from this game.There was some uninspired, maybe lazy, maybe selfish first half play that nearly costs us the game when the Aces heated up.
Evansville’s coach needs to be let go. Secondly, I still don’t know about our team. We seem to be able to competitive with every team in the valley, but not good enough to win convincingly against any team. I’m glad they are in every game more so than the last two years. We pulled out the win but That first half was woof woof. Anyone care to offer a good analysis of our team’s season results thus far? Our win over UNI at home is looking better and better.,
This game was won on second chance points (24-5). Valpo's three bigs combined for 25 rebounds (13 offensive boards), which about matched Evansville's whole team totals of 29 and 9. Valpo's team total was 44 rebounds! The good free throw shooting (12-15 80%, 8-10 in the second half) also helped get the game to overtime, though I would like to see VU get to the line even more.
Anyone know how long Brodie and Barnes are out? gonna need em
Survive and advance. That's all we can do.
Is the Drake game the one which Bryan F wanted somebody else to open the thread? If so somebody jump in there.
