The Seahawks come to the ARC to take on the Beacons.
Taking a closer look at UNC Wilmington, it appears their core rotation consists of 8 guys with 7 averaging over 20 minutes a game. They have balanced scoring with 4 players averaging over 12 PPG and 3 others averaging over 8 PPG. They are an older experienced team; they play all Seniors and Juniors with one Sophomore. Nolan Hodge (Sr., G, 6-7) is averaging 15.1ppg and is shooting 41.7 from 3pt., Madison Durr (Sr., G, 6-5) is averaging 12.5ppg, Patrick Wessler (Jr., C, 7-0) is averaging 12.4 and 8.5 rbg with 3.7 Personal Fouls, Christian May (Sr., G, 6-5) is averaging 12.1ppg, and Noah Ross (Sr., G, 6-7) averaging 9.5ppg, Greedy Williams (Sr., G, 6-5) Averaging 8.2ppg.
UNC Wilmington (9-1) is a big team they do not lack size so they will match up with Valpo well. Their strength of schedule has been a question for them. They have not played a single Power 5 school, and their best opponent has been Kent State (128), which is also their only loss of the year. They have had some close wins against some questionable teams but have also had some convincing wins as well. They shoot the 3 well at 37% as a team and have 2 players shooting over 40%. This is a good rebounding team, and they don’t turn the ball over a ton either. They play slower than Valpo with the average offensive possession being 19.4 seconds, they are one of the slowest teams in CBB.
This will be a slow grind game, the way UNC Wilmington plays is how Powell wants Valpo to play this year. They are an extremely efficient team for what they are. Valpo plays pretty good defense, and we will have to be very disciplined about closing out on the parameter kick outs from the post. Valpo will need to protect the rim and provide weakside help in the post if they get that part of their game going. When providing weak side help, we will need to rotate defensively to prevent too many offensive rebounds. Valpo will certainly need their shooting to show up in this game and look to run the offense as efficiently as possible to win this game. Size wise Valpo will be one of the first teams UNCW plays that can really match them in that department so disrupting them with our size and physicality is a must to get them out of rhythm. With a short bench, if Valpo can generate foul trouble to start this game, that will be a benefit as Wessler is foul prone. I would like to see our guard’s pressure the ball to get them sped up a little and add some disruption which I think we will see. A slow game often means less shots so our shot selection will also need to be at a premium, we have to get good looks, this team is too tall to be driving into the lane out of control taking bad shots.
Kenpom has UNCW favored for a 70-66 Win, but I think we can beat these guys if we play to our strengths, are disciplined, and execute the way we are capable of. UNCW is a good team, but have they played the level of competition for their statistics to be truly weighted? I will be in the ARC for this one and I am excited to see what we can do against what appears to be a very good opponent.
Valpo 78-UNCW 72
Bryan F...Im loving the scouting reports!
I'm flying from Washington to catch the game with my dad and brother. Really looking forward to being in the ARC and supporting the team in person!
I'm flying from Washington to catch the game with my dad and brother. Really looking forward to being in the ARC and supporting the team in person!
It could be Washington State, Washington D.C., or Washington Indiana based on your username I'm going with Washington State.... I don't know but you picked a potentially great non-con game to come to the ARC. I am really hoping we have a great crowd on Saturday. It's going to be a cold one on Saturday with temperature lows of around 0 and snow in the forecast. Bring a winter coat! 
Bryan F...Im loving the scouting reports!
Thanks, I appreciate that, I get into the games pretty deep from an execution and statistics standpoint, so I like to have a good understanding of the game opponent and matchup going in, I know others are the same, so I like to share my thoughts for discussion and to get others perspective. I remembered previously you said you were going to try and make it to the ARC for this one. Will @valpodad be in the building on Saturday? If so, grab some tickets near Section G Row 2 Seats 10-12 and we can yell together or stop by and say hi, I enjoy meeting other like minded Valpo fans.
I think this game should be a good game to judge where the program is at this season. Far enough into the season so that rotations can be somewhat established, the riff raff sent to the bench and the players sent onto the court. I didn't look at either the horrendous loss to SIU or the near win against a in name only Marquette squad as an indicator of anything much
Was looking at attendance numbers and something has to be off on ESPN's side. Was looking at numbers for attendance to get a good idea of what would be a good turnout for this game and was baffled. The WMU Blizzard game was a listed attendance of 1,107. The CCSJ game has a listed attendance of 1,023. There was, very clearly, a lot more people in attendance for the CCSJ game than there was for the WMU game.
Brian F...well im like 50/50 now- kid is finishing the semester bugging out sat but Im trying to make her stay an extra hour lets watch the game! If im in ill shoot ya an identifier and wander over to ya! I usually grab a bleacher midcourt behind scorers bench
Was looking at attendance numbers and something has to be off on ESPN's side. Was looking at numbers for attendance to get a good idea of what would be a good turnout for this game and was baffled. The WMU Blizzard game was a listed attendance of 1,107. The CCSJ game has a listed attendance of 1,023. There was, very clearly, a lot more people in attendance for the CCSJ game than there was for the WMU game.
@rezynezy I don't know if they base the attendance on actual ticket sales or by the ticket takers counting on the little hand counters, they click for each person coming in. There have been times I thought there were more in attendance and the numbers didn't reflect that. Alternatively, I have thought there have been a few games that had 500 butts in the seats and attendance numbers showed double that. We have a season ticket for my 3-year-old, and we ensure we get it scanned at each game, however at about half the games I have to ensure it gets scanned or they would let my wife, child, and I through without scanning all three. Maybe that has something to do with it. If I remember on Saturday, I will ask one of the ADs because now you just have me curious.
Another thing of note is that the NET rankings have UNCW as 99 and Valpo as 222. The fact that this is projected to be a 70-66 win is suprising. A win here would look better than the Marquette game whom is 169 in NET. Real shot at redemption for the faceplant in Milwalkee
@vulb62 That would be laying an egg. Faceplant as in doing so well and then you trip over your own shoe laces
Another thing of note is that the NET rankings have UNCW as 99 and Valpo as 222. The fact that this is projected to be a 70-66 win is suprising. A win here would look better than the Marquette game whom is 169 in NET. Real shot at redemption for the faceplant in Milwalkee
Doing a quick search it seems most think the NET has flaws but is better than RPI. That said how is Valpo 222 after the Marquette game? Bad USI game dragging them down?
I would have a hard time believing that 222 is accurate. Granted in MVC UIC and Evansville are below Valpo. BUT both Bradley (145) and ISU Ind (203) havent looked great at all and are rated higher.
Guess it comes down to big wins, close with Marquette evidently didnt do squat. Maybe that big win comes tomorrow? I will be in a layover, downloaded the ESPN app so I can watch!
I’m setting the over/under attendance at 1,750
