Two Struggling Squads Collide as Beacons Face Flames
KenPom projects a tight contest as Beacons aim to end five-game slide and ignite momentum.
Valparaiso returns to action at home Sunday, hosting the UIC Flames in a matchup where both teams are desperate to snap losing streaks and regain momentum in Missouri Valley Conference play.
The Beacons enter the contest searching for a much-needed win after a rough stretch dating back to early December. Valpo has dropped five straight and sits at 1-6 in its last seven games. UIC hasn’t fared much better, going 1-7 over its last eight and still seeking its first MVC victory as well. Neither squad managed to defeat a Division I opponent in December, with their lone wins coming against non-D1 foes.
Offensive struggles have plagued Valpo throughout the season. The Beacons rank in the bottom third nationally in shooting, hitting just 28.1% from beyond the arc (342nd) and 45.1% inside it (327th). Those numbers dipped even lower in their last two outings against UNI and SIU respectively. UIC’s shooting woes mirror Valpo’s, as the Flames shoot 30.1% from deep and 47.5% inside the arc—also among the nation’s lower tier.
Despite offensive concerns, Valpo boasts advantages in size, bench production, and defense. The Beacons have done well limiting opponents’ scoring and defending the three-point line. For the Flames, this is a team that leans heavily on guard play and attacking the basket. UIC’s frontcourt is undersized, giving Valpo an opportunity to dominate the paint, this size advantage should also help Valpo defend the rim.
UIC is led by a small speedy junior guard in Ahmad Henderson II (14.1 PPG, 2.9 APG), freshman Andy Johnson (13.3 PPG), and versatile junior Mekhi Lowery (9.1 PPG, team-high 6.0 RPG). Expect the Flames to push the tempo and rely on their backcourt to generate offense.
While Valpo’s offensive/shooting issues have kept games out of reach late, every MVC matchup has been a battle—and this one should be no different. With KenPom projecting Valpo as a slight favorite (72-69, 60% win probability), the Beacons have a prime opportunity to build momentum before a grueling four-game stretch against the conference’s top teams.
Tip-off is set for Sunday at the ARC. For Valpo, it’s more than just a game—it’s a chance to reset and power through the MVC slate with confidence.
Ill be in the ARC for this one, I hope to see you all there!
I don't know if it's too early in the season to call this a "must win" from the standpoint of the rest of this season finishing respectably, but it sorta feels that way.
@david81 I don’t no if it actually is either but as a fan It feels that way. The guys need a good shooting night to get some confidence back!
I don't know about must win but it's certainly a game the team should be able to win lest it face a bottom of league finish. Absent a one off game or two, I think it's unrealistic to expect the shooting to suddenly get consistently better. The stat that bothers me most is the "inside the arc" percentage of 45%. That's abominable. The angles the team as a whole approaches the basket are uniformly terrible which leads to way too many missed point blank shots. This began, and continues, in the first game of the season in which the opponent would turn it over or Valpo would get a run out on a rebound and a shot taken from an "unusual" angle would occur. The offense has similar issues in a set in which the team never seems to have an easy path to the basket. I don't know if this is due to the makeup of the players in terms of just not being slashers or the coach has issues creating those types of shots. Since this has been an issue since he took over, I think Powell deserves criticism for the teams offensive ineptitude.
Stating obvious.....but to build any fan momentum, need to start stringing together wins. Over under attendance is low today, I will set at 1,200. UIC is beatable and they played well versus Murray. Their point guard is a waterbug out there. Would like to see us get out in transition today and get some transition points. Scoring from other than Dease needs to show up from Brown, Barnes, Whitaker and or Chaney.
4-7 from 3. Good News
25% from 2. Bad News.
I don't get it.
Gritty! Nice win versus a very good team who has had to play the top of the Valley. 40 FT versus 17. Thank goodness we were making them. Other scoring was pretty scarce.
It’s a W, rebounds were equal, turnovers low, fair three point shooting. I’m confused what the main issue is with this team, but our offense is difficult to watch. Curious what Powell says in the press conference.
@vu72 wouldn’t call them a “very good team” given their loss to Arkansas Pine Bluff and 4 point win at Chicago St, but yes a good win. Any Valley win is a great one!
@burnee77 brother and I noticed themat they mis a lot of opportunities for post players down low. My sense is that they spend too much time looking for perfect shots based on the poor shooting in prior games that they get into panic time in low shot clock situations. Need to feed the post
This was such a relief, thank goodness. ISUR will be a tough match-up, they are beatable and upsets happen but they look strong right now. Would have hated going into that game still looking for the first valley win.
Our offense has been and continues to be awful. It is hard to watch. Thank goodness that they kept fouling us. Justus was the guy to make that happen. I don’t think we made a FG in the last 5 minutes of them game.
