Belmont Riding Momentum Into ARC Clash as Valpo Seeks Fifth Straight Home Win
The Belmont Bruins arrive at the ARC carrying a five‑game winning streak and a share of first place in the Missouri Valley Conference, looking to close out the front half of league play against a Valparaiso squad that has found its rhythm at home. Belmont enters the matchup fresh off an 80–69 victory over Illinois State, improving to 8–2 in conference action, while Valpo aims to extend its own home success after a 69–63 win over Southern Illinois.
When these teams met earlier this season in Nashville, Belmont controlled much of the evening, outlasting the Beacons 78–74 despite a late Valpo surge. Five Bruins finished in double figures that night, led by Jabez Jenkins’ 17‑point performance. Notably, the Beacons succeeded in containing Belmont sharpshooter Tyler Lundblade, who managed only eight points on 2‑for‑9 shooting from beyond the arc. Drew Scharnowski added 10 points and seven rebounds as part of Belmont’s balanced offensive showing.
Valpo countered with standout efforts of its own in that matchup. Owen Dease poured in a game‑high 24 points, while Rakim Chaney contributed 17. Brody Whitaker and JT Pettigrew each reached double figures as the Beacons nearly erased the deficit in the closing minutes. The game remained tight statistically, but Belmont’s superior shooting efficiency ultimately proved decisive.
As the Bruins and Beacons meet again, the scouting report remains largely unchanged—and that may be precisely what makes Belmont so dangerous for a second time. The Bruins boast one of the nation’s most efficient offenses: third in effective field‑goal percentage, sixth in three‑point accuracy, and eighth in two‑point efficiency. Lundblade continues to anchor the scoring at 15 points per game, with Sam Orme adding 12 per outing and Scharnowski providing 11 points and six rebounds from the frontcourt. Point guard Nic McClain rounds out the double‑figure contributors with 10 points and six assists per night.
Defensively, Belmont’s philosophy has also remained consistent. The Bruins excel at walling off the paint, forcing opponents to generate an eye‑catching 43.8 percent of their points from deep—second highest nationally. Only 38.1 percent of opponents’ scoring comes from inside the arc, a testament to Belmont’s commitment to denying dribble penetration and protecting the rim with strong positional defense.
However, even elite teams present openings. Belmont is vulnerable on the offensive glass, occasionally loose with the basketball, and inconsistent at the free‑throw line—weaknesses that Valpo will look to exploit. The Beacons’ path to victory hinges on capitalizing on those deficiencies: converting open three‑point looks, initiating contact to draw early fouls, and securing second‑chance points through aggressive rebounding. Defensively, heightened ball pressure could turn Belmont’s turnover issues into transition opportunities for Valpo.
Predictive metrics anticipate another tight battle. KenPom projects a narrow 75–70 Belmont win, giving Valparaiso a 32 percent chance to pull the upset. But with the Beacons riding a four‑game home winning streak and showing marked improvement inside the ARC, the ingredients for a statement victory are firmly in place.
Tip‑off promises a compelling showdown between Belmont’s disciplined efficiency and Valpo’s surging home‑court confidence. If recent form is any indication, fans at the ARC could be in for one of the most competitive matchups of Valley play so far this season.
Below I have included the full season comparison and the conference season comparison for the teams. Since we are at the halfway point of Valley play conference statistics are applicable enough to warrant statistical comparisons.
Season:
Conference:
I think it is fair to say that this is perhaps the biggest conference home game that Valpo has had in a long time. Although I am not sure that the stakes are that high (it is more of a nothing to lose game), BUT with a win we would be 5-5 in league halfway through the conference slate. Much more importantly, we will be done playing 3 of the top 4 teams in league (based off NET and Kenpom rating) and we have all 6 remaining games with the bottom 3 in Kenpom (Evansville, Indiana St, Drake). So although a loss really is not a big deal, a win would/could set us up for our best conference record ever in the Valley (previous high was 9 wins). Hopefully we get some fan support on Wednesday.
I think we continue our home winning streak and send a message that we'll be ready for Arch Madness.
Valpo 77 - 71
Basically everybody at the top is beatable in this league. The record does not show how strong this team is this season. Beacs can win
Hoping to see the students come out for this one, see Valpo athletics posted about coming out.
This is their biggest regular season home game in a while. You could argue when Drake came to town versus the Ben Krikke led team, (the OT game), was bigger, but this team is trending more in the right direction. With constant roster turnover the local community, still needs to hear about win after win, before it's on their radar. The key will be on the defensive end, can they do enough to slow Belmont's scoring in the paint as Shon was manhandled by their mobile bigs the first time. Keep Belmont under 70, Valpo wins. The last game, Valpo came out asleep after halftime and played not to loose. We lost our aggressiveness on offense and let SIU creep back in, can't do that in this game. A fifteen minute first half stretch against SIU was arguably their best offensive execution all season, followed by 15 minutes in the second half of arguably their worst offensive execution of the year equal to the Bryant game (first half).This team can defeat Belmont, but must play all out on both ends for 40 minutes. Over under attendance will be at 1,600. Maybe Jack Smiley's return to Valpo could slightly boost attendance, similar to the Drake region players effect.
@rezynezy You’re absolutely right about the Missouri Valley Conference—any team can be beaten on any given night. Valpo’s current form also isn’t accurately reflected by its record as you mention. As the season has progressed, this group has improved in pace, style, chemistry, and overall familiarity, and that growth is finally producing meaningful results in the heart of Valley Play.
While the Valley has talent spread across the conference, it’s the ability to mold that talent into a cohesive, effective product that separates teams. After three straight years of leading the conference in player turnover, Valpo finally appears to have found relative stability for the current stretch of play, and Coach Powell seems to be figuring out how to maximize this group. That alone is a reason for optimism.
At the same time, it’s important to recognize that simply landing in the middle of the Valley is not the ultimate goal. For the first time in several seasons, the top of the conference feels within reach (arch madness bye), and there is legitimate reason to be excited about that trajectory.
@backagain2024 Regarding whether this is the biggest game in the ARC in recent years, there’s validity to that argument. According to KenPom, Belmont (No. 64) is the best team to come to the ARC this season and the third‑best opponent on Valpo’s schedule overall, behind only Kentucky and Northwestern. It’s graded as a “B” Tier matchup, and although Drake carried slightly better ratings during its last two visits, this one still carries significant weight given Valpo’s current momentum, I would have to agree this one feels a bit bigger then many others.
@burnee77 As for the matchup itself, Tucker Tornatta played an important role in the first meeting. His usage increased due to favorable matchups and his offensive versatility against Belmont, logging 12 minutes—his most since December 6 versus Calumet. Given his size, athleticism, and stylistic compatibility against Belmont’s frontcourt, it’s reasonable to expect he’ll again see double‑figure minutes. His impact in the previous game suggests he could be a key factor in helping Valpo push over the top this time.
While I hope for a big turnout due to the team's improvement and the quality of the opponent, I doubt that there will be a substantial increase in student attendance because of the bitter cold. Hope that I am wrong.
I doubt that there will be a substantial increase in student attendance because of the bitter cold.
I always laugh when I see this type of reasoning. Give me a break! The ARC is located right on campus, something folks here have repeatedly emphasized as important for student attendance. The distance to the game for most students is no different than to attend a class or chapel or walk to dinner at the Union. If it were a free concert, the ARC would be packed and students would stand in line to get inside with no complaints about the cold. When they enrolled, I'm sure they knew northern Indiana had frigid winters.
Hell, my friends and I are more than three times the age of these students, and we have been outside every day recently clearing our driveways and walks; we've even traveled to the Dunes parks to hike trails in the snow for an hour or more! If I were a student, I'd be embarrassed to use the cold as an excuse for not attending.
I doubt that there will be a substantial increase in student attendance because of the bitter cold.
I always laugh when I see this type of reasoning. Give me a break! The ARC is located right on campus, something folks here have repeatedly emphasized as important for student attendance. The distance to the game for most students is no different than to attend a class or chapel or walk to dinner at the Union. If it were a free concert, the ARC would be packed and students would stand in line to get inside with no complaints about the cold. When they enrolled, I'm sure they knew northern Indiana had frigid winters.
Hell, my friends and I are more than three times the age of these students, and we have been outside every day recently clearing our driveways and walks; we've even traveled to the Dunes parks to hike trails in the snow for an hour or more! If I were a student, I'd be embarrassed to use the cold as an excuse for not attending.
Valpopal - I fully agree with you, but I just see the decisions that students (and, frankly, many adults) make in these types of situations.
Let's put it this way. The avg Valpo student has shown that they are disinterested in basketball. The only time the students have shown out has been when athletes were in attendance. And those athletes have their own obligations. They would rather sit home and watch Purdue, IU, nd, or the bulls. As for the simple walk to classes. I wouldn't doubt that a large contingent of the remaining student population, outside of the athletes, are commuters l. Whom are not held tonthe same on campus living requirements
It’s also possible that Valpo is now recruiting students who aren’t interested in college basketball.
I’d be very interested in seeing the student attendance% per total enrollment for all of the schools in the Valley! Impossible stat to accurately quantify I imagine. The college experience changes over time, today many students earn degrees in more unconventional ways. Going to college basketball games for socialization purposes probably doesn't have the same ring to it as it did in previous decades, given how the world has progressed. I could also be totally out of touch as I age as well. I like the effort however, the athletic department had a video on socials asking for student support, The cash giveaway for the half court is a cool promotion for students that I think should help some. Of course winning helps as well. Regardless, the only thing most of us can do to help is participate in the engagement and encourage others to attend with us. Maybe ask an old friend, neighbor, or coworker to attend. Tell a friend who enjoys basketball about what’s going on with the program to discuss common interests.
That student section looks good on TV. Belmonts 3 ball is just scary. Belmont is clearly the best team in the Valley. Love seeing we responded well to each run to keep it within striking distance.
Finally a better crowd. Need to make their touches more difficult on the perimeter, contest better, to many open looks in the first half. Need to see more from Pettigrew.
