It was great to get a win, hopefully we can build some confidence and momentum to steal the next and get momentum. The offense was rough, UIC had good on the ball defense and was aggressive (look at the fouls) Valpo didn’t have the best execution of the offense. Free throws won this game. The D held up when we needed it. Mark got more minutes tonight, he played his role without getting to far out of control, I made that observation. JT was our main offensive, Justus continues to be an X factor making winning plays. Happy to get a win!
Our offense has been and continues to be awful. It is hard to watch. Thank goodness that they kept fouling us. Justus was the guy to make that happen. I don’t think we made a FG in the last 5 minutes of them game.
Valpo went the last 5 plus mins without a FG. There's is zero flow to the offense. We'll take the win but if the team needs to get to the point where they need 23 free throws more than the opponent to win a game, then it's unlikely that there will be many more MVC wins this season.
Our offense has been and continues to be awful. It is hard to watch. Thank goodness that they kept fouling us. Justus was the guy to make that happen. I don’t think we made a FG in the last 5 minutes of them game.
Valpo went the last 5 plus mins without a FG. There's is zero flow to the offense. We'll take the win but if the team needs to get to the point where they need 23 free throws more than the opponent to win a game, then it's unlikely that there will be many more MVC wins this season.
Exactly. This was actually a stunning come-from-behind win under the circumstances. How many teams over late-game deficits exclusively by free throws? Fortunately UIC was obliging them by fouling, missing shots, and turning the ball over, and Beacs did a great job on their FTs.
Possibly meaningful win that helps to build some confidence, but the shooting is still awful.
And tucked beneath all of this is an important lesson about player retention. Justus McNair said after the game (per Paul's Victory Bell write-up) that he worked hard on improving his free throw shooting after falling short on that measure last year. That's to his credit and directly contributed to today's victory.
But VU doesn't benefit from that year-to-year player self-improvement if their most promising players (as well as some others!) hit the portal at the end of the season. This is one of the biggest impacts of the portal on mid-majors, i.e., they start to develop players who jump ship, with other teams benefiting from that early growth.
The offense was mind blowing in how nothing it was. When Pettigrew came out briefly for injury, I’m not sure there was a single screen set in the next 3 minutes. Genuine question, can anyone identify a singular set play we have? Looked like a whole bunch of pickup at times today.
TO give credit. It was a very sound defensive game on both sides. UIC played well and stopped the core Valpo shooters from taking many shots. However, there is a lot of open post opportunities that go unnoticed. Most likely due to the hesitant nature to shoot unless the all the stars align. Sometimes you need to put a ball somewhere to open up shots. Basketball is not a perfect sport.
If there’s one theme that has defined Valpo’s season so far, it’s this: offense has been a struggle. The defense has kept the Beacons competitive, but consistent scoring has been hard to come by. Even our most reliable contributors—JT, Owen, Rakim, and Justus—have had ups and downs. Beyond them, production has been limited, leaving the team somewhat one-dimensional in its offensive approach.
Opponents are scouting us well and adjusting quickly. When our sets break down, defensive pressure forces contested shots or leads to turnovers. Too often, the ball rotation is slow for open looks, and by the time it swings around, the defense has already reset. If we find a mismatch in the post, it’s usually not deep enough to be effective—or we get doubled and end up with a bad-angle shot. JT has handled these situations best given his skill set, but even he’s had challenges given his size and experience playing PF. The defensive rotation and lack of effective screens stagnates attacking opportunities from the wings. Often leading to a pull up jumper from outside of the lane. Justus and Owen tend to be our better attackers but opportunities are limited or feel forced.
A lot of this comes down to Division I speed and lack of experience. This group hasn’t played together long, and they’re young—minute distributions show that clearly. At times, you can still see confusion on the floor. Continuity is rare in college basketball these days, but it matters.
So what’s the fix? Adding complexity and variety to the offense could help. More off-ball movement, quicker rotations, and different looks—like staggered screens or more high-low action—would make us harder to scout. Coach Powell knows this, and I trust he’s working on adjustments. Also, a consideration is can this team effectively execute more complex looks and establish new sets given our youth, continuity, and current roster skill sets? Probably to some extent but time in a system is what typically results in more effective play.
The good news? The Valley is competitive, and games often come down to one or two possessions. If Valpo can find any offensive improvements, this team has the potential to push into the mid-to-upper tier of the conference. The talent is there—the execution just needs to catch up.
Below. I’ll break down some stats next to show just how much the offense needs to improve.
After the win over UIC, Valpo sits at 190th out of 365 Division I teams in KenPom’s overall rankings. That’s middle of the pack nationally but back of the pack in the Valley— the deeper metrics tell the real story.
- Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 256th
- Effective Field Goal %: 356th (near the bottom nationally)
- 3-Point %: 334th
- 2-Point %: 339th
- Average Possession Length: 291st
Those shooting numbers are tough. Even more telling: Valpo’s average 2-point shot distance is 6.6 feet, ranking 295th closest nationally. Combine that with the fact that 48% of our scoring comes from two-point shots, and you see the problem—lots of short/mid-range attempts, but poor conversion. Add in our 3p% and our offense starts to look pretty bad. Watching games, these are not open looks, these are mostly contested and sometimes off balance.
On the bright side, Valpo’s defense has been solid. The Beacons also excel at protecting the ball, ranking well in limiting steals and turnovers. Add in decent offensive rebounding, good bench depth, and size that matches up well positionally, and there’s a foundation to build on. We are a good shooting night away from beating any team in the Valley.
So why the offensive struggles? A big factor is lack of Division I experience and minutes continuity. This group is young and still learning to play together, which shows in execution and shot selection offensively. I also believe our offense needs to try some different sets to add variability and flow.
Alot of talk about the offense and rightfully so, this is all just my opinion on the offense. What am I missing, there are some great opinions in this Forum.
Well, UIC was fouling a lot in the last five minutes, so that contributed to less field goal attempts. I wonder if Powell is not playing Justice more as a way to protect him from leaving. Maybe if he plays to well and has a break out year, high major schools will be after him. Good to see less three point attempts, but still could use more transition opportunities, with Barnes, Chaney and Justice, our quickest players making plays on fast break opportunities. Team will have no shot to win against Illinois State if they shoot below 45% unless we go to the line 40 times again.
@burnee77 I'm not sure if you were at the game, at one point in the first half with like 12 minutes to go Rob Eson the UIC coach went nuts in a quiet arena. "They are in the bonus, quit fouling, I said quit fouling, it's not that hard". Clearly his team still didn't get the memo, and it cost them the game. 
@burnee77 I don't think it's anything that tin foil hatted. But purely because there is a lot of data that shows that Justus plays better coming off of the bench as opposed to a starter.
Those shooting numbers are tough. Even more telling: Valpo’s average 2-point shot distance is 6.6 feet, ranking 295th closest nationally. Combine that with the fact that 48% of our scoring comes from two-point shots, and you see the problem—lots of short/mid-range attempts, but poor conversion. Add in our 3p% and our offense starts to look pretty bad. Watching games, these are not open looks, these are mostly contested and sometimes off balance.
This falls in line with my comment of a lack of easy buckets. This appears to be generated from a lack of a qualify set offense or offensive flow. However, even in transition or 2nd chance opportunities, it is maddening how too often the shot that is taken is off balance/poor angle. This would be situations probably more left up to the players and it's possible that the team just has a roster of players without a lot of skill getting to the basket.
@jd24 Just looking over the stats, this game was odd. For example, Valpo shot 10-for-30 from two-point range—a season-low 33.3%, tied with the Kentucky game. Factor in that 30 two-point attempts is the second-fewest in a game this season (only the EIU game had fewer with 24), and combine that with a season-low in three-point attempts at just 11. I guess we won this game in true “SICKO” fashion.
Interestingly, Valpo shot 45.5% on those three-point attempts, well above our season average, coincidentally enough. The more I think about this game, the weirder it gets.
To be consistent: I didn't like when Murray State got 13 more free throws and won by 6 points; similarly, I wasn't thrilled that Valpo needed 23 more free throws to beat UIC by 7 points. Usually, such a disparity arises when one team takes many more outside shots. However, in both games the number of 3-point shots taken were about equal: Murray State 18, Valpo 18; UIC 12 Valpo 11. Merely from a spectator's perspective, these types of games are just less enjoyable to watch.
@valpopal Yes, true "SICKO" game, another odd thing about this game in regard to free throws. It registered as the 5th highest free throw rated game recorded statistically since 1997 for Valpo. which is a stat using Free Throw Attempts (FTA) / Field Goal Attempts (FGA). We had 41 FG attempts and 40 FT attempts, just an odd one.
@jd24 Just looking over the stats, this game was odd. For example, Valpo shot 10-for-30 from two-point range—a season-low 33.3%, tied with the Kentucky game. Factor in that 30 two-point attempts is the second-fewest in a game this season (only the EIU game had fewer with 24), and combine that with a season-low in three-point attempts at just 11. I guess we won this game in true “SICKO” fashion.
Interestingly, Valpo shot 45.5% on those three-point attempts, well above our season average, coincidentally enough. The more I think about this game, the weirder it gets.
Shooting from 2 is killing them. 40% or below too many games. In today's game where the mid range jumper is mostly non existent, 2 pointers should be majority layups, putbacks and dunks.
Owen Dease has won the "Newcomer of the Week" for efforts in SIU and UIC. JT Pettigrew has won the "Freshman of the Week" award for the same reasons.
