The Valparaiso Beacons Fan Zone Forum

The college basketball season has officially begun with our first practice starting last night.

This is obviously too early too tell but I wanted to gauge everyones preseason expectations for this team. I want to take this poll in the preseason & redo the poll again right before Conference play starts in December & compare expectations. The Conference is pretty wide open next season with Missouri State being the favorite.

Over on the MVC Fan Forum they have already started discussing & ranking teams: http://www.mvcfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=4778&start=0

My too early predictions:
1. Missouri State - A talented & veteran roster. MSU's back story is their HC can really recruit but isn't a great coach

2. Loyola - Their HC reputation is similar to MSU's. Great recruiter/not so great coach. I may be too high on them but they have a heavy senior roster but their bigs are young.

3. Illinois State - ISU suffered from transfers but they still have a talented roster & they're the defending League Champs. Muller is well respected.

4. UNI - I could see UNI falling as low as 5 or 6 on this list but I'm ranking them here based on respect for their coach

5. Bradley - I keep on going back & forth between Valpo & Bradley for the 5th spot. I gave them the edge because they return a lot & don't lose any starters but Valpo has a ton turnover with our roster. Bradley's team is really athletic. I've seen some media folks pick them as their sleeper team.

6. Valpo - I could see us finishing anywhere from 4-7

7. SIU - Barry Hinson is the best interview in the league but I'm not as high on their team next season as other are. Potentially another wildcard. They could potentially finish in the Top 5.

8. Indiana State - They have some nice pieces but I don't think next year is their year.

9. Drake - I'm not very high on Drake next season. They hired a new coach this offseason. He's well respect & I know he's recruited better then his predecessors.

10. Evansville - An ugly roster... I'm kind of surprised Marty has last as long as he has at Evansville. Evansville has potential as a program but it may be time to make a coaching change after next season.

It honestly pains me to rank a Valpo team at 6th in the Conference but I think its fair given the amount of turnover with the roster & graduating last years senior class. We're a talented group but we're really young & have 7 new guys on the team & we're joining a newconference. I don't really know what to expect but I'm excited for next season.

Conference Schedule:
Thursday 12/28 at Indiana State 6pm
Sunday 12/31 Missouri State ARC 3pm
Wednesday 1/3 at Bradley 7pm
Saturday 1/6 Southern Illinois ARC 3pm
Wednesday 1/10 Drake ARC 7pm
Saturday 1/13 at Northern Iowa 7pm
Wednesday 1/17 at Missouri State 7pm
Sunday 1/21 Loyola ARC 3pm
Wednesday 1/24 Evansville ARC 7pm
Saturday 1/27 at Illinois State 9pm
Wednesday 1/31 Indiana State ARC 7pm
Saturday 2/3 at Southern Illinois 7pm
Wednesday 2/7 at Evansville 7pm
Sunday 2/11 Illinois State ARC 3pm
Wednesday 2/14 at Loyola TBA
Saturday 2/17 Bradley ARC 7pm
Tuesday 2/20 Northern Iowa ARC 8pm
Saturday 2/24 at Drake TBA

1st place!  Probably not realistic, but I'm a fan with my blinders on when it comes to making predictions like this. 

I think we finish with a 11-7 MVC record. I think we lose both games to Mo State and IL State, take both from Loyola (yes, both games), Drake, IN State and EU and split with Bradley, SIU and UNI.  I think that will get us a 4th (or tied for 4th) place finish.  I also predict that our team steadily improves over the season and that we lose only 2 games (@ SIU and IL State) in the final 8 games of the season and come into Arch Madness as everyone's dark horse.   :thumbsup:

Quote from: VULB#62 on October 02, 2017, 02:13:31 PM
I think we finish with a 11-7 MVC record. I think we lose both games to Mo State and IL State, take both from Loyola (yes, both games), Drake, IN State and EU and split with Bradley, SIU and UNI.  I think that will get us a 4th (or tied for 4th) place finish.  I also predict that our team steadily improves over the season and that we lose only 2 games (@ SIU and IL State) in the final 8 games of the season and come into Arch Madness as everyone's dark horse.

LOL, win in Evansville...certainly not if the refs have anything to say about it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'm pleasantly surprised by the votes so far. Some people are a little more optimistic then me. I guess I could be a little pessimistic but I generally try to air on the side of caution when making predictions.

I voted third because:

1.  Valpo will be better than many expect because they're adding two P-5 transfers who spent last year with the team AND the returning guys will be improved ... especially the sophomores who gained a lot of experience last year as freshmen.

2.  I feel the "step up" in conference is a bit overstated.  Valpo has had recent success against MVC teams, and quite frankly, the MVC will be down a bit next season.  Better than the current Horizon League, but probably not as good as the Horizon League was when they joined (at least when talking about the upper half of the conference).   :twocents:

Quote from: Dave_2010 on October 02, 2017, 02:49:38 PM
LOL, win in Evansville...certainly not if the refs have anything to say about it.

I was at the last game in Evansville and the refs were horrible. If we could have contained their big scorer in the first half and Peters would have been allowed in that first half by the officials to put up the points all the times he was shoved and no fouls were called as he scored in the 2nd half then Valpo wins. Alec was just coming back from Washington, IL after his hometown had been hit by a tornado. He was raw with emotion but was hit every time he got the ball in the first half like it was a football game. While the purple aces big scorer was left open and fouls were called when he was touched.

MSU head coach handicapping the league. (start 0:30)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbOsxy-qln0&t=5s

Quote from: zvillehaze on October 02, 2017, 10:26:01 PM
I voted third because:
1.  Valpo will be better than many expect because they're adding two P-5 transfers who spent last year with the team AND the returning guys will be improved ... especially the sophomores who gained a lot of experience last year as freshmen.

I'm expecting big things from Joe Burton this upcoming season. He sounds like a stud. As for Bakari I'm a little bit more tempered on my expectations because PG is some what more demanding of a position & he doesn't have much collegiate experience yet. He sounds like a nice talent but played just 88 minutes in 18 games as a true freshman & his senior year of HS only play 9 games because he transferred his SR year of high school & it caused an eligibility problem. Its reasonable to expect some rust and mistakes next season. I think he can be a good player but I need to see it first. He sounds like he could be a potential impact guy I'm just not sure he'll be that player we all hope early on next season.

I'm really expecting a big year from Tevonn who will be a more featured offensive player next season. I'm going to looking for his jump shot/3pt % to improve next season. People outside of our fan-base and some media folks are sleeping on him because all they see is the box scores. He'll surprise fans in the MVC next season.

We haven't heard much about how guys look in practice yet but Paul mentioned Max is stepping up in that leadership role and every time Coach Lottich does an interview one of the first players he mentions is Max Joseph. So I'm wondering if Max will play a bigger role next season. When guys got injured last season his role increased and he wasn't always the most consistent or reliable guy on the court but he did have his moments where looked good but those were too few.

I want to know how the freshman are looking & will we be relying on one or two of them this season? Our Power Forwards are all true freshman so we are going to need them to step up. Everything we've heard about Mileek is the ceiling is really high & could be a very versatile player but he's a little raw. My prediction is Linssen is going to need to step up. He has international experience & coach said he's the type of player that will fight for rebounds. Thats a key ingredient to playing time as a young player.

We need the Sophomores to take the next step:
-Sorolla needs to not wear down as the season goes on. Sorolla didn't look great in the FIBA U20 during the summer, but its hard take anything from that because of the style play the team was running. Sorolla was good early on in the season.
-Smits need to embrace a little more physicality when fighting for rebounds. He'll never be a physical player but he need to put himself in a better position to rebound & box out in the post.
-Micah needs to improve also. I know it wasn't a great freshman year but you can see the tools in him. I think he'll have more confidence with a season under his belt. I want to know how he looks in practice.

Quote from: zvillehaze on October 02, 2017, 10:26:01 PM
2.  I feel the "step up" in conference is a bit overstated.  Valpo has had recent success against MVC teams, and quite frankly, the MVC will be down a bit next season.  Better than the current Horizon League, but probably not as good as the Horizon League was when they joined (at least when talking about the upper half of the conference).   :twocents:

Agreed the "step up" in competition is overrated but the MVC is a better coached league and there aren't as many "cupcake" games against YSU/UWM/UDM. Drake & Evansville might not be great teams but are still tougher competition then HL's bottom half.

Also the MVC teams are better defensive teams at least from what I've noticed. It's just a better a league & the competition is tougher.

The MVC Forum has been doing its fan prediction polls for teams.

http://www.mvcfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=4791&p=109132#p109132

Official MVCfans.com - Predictions:
10th Place - Evansville
9th Place - Drake
8th Place - Indiana State
7th Place - Bradley
6th Place - .....  (Valpo is currently the leading vote for 6th)


I voted for SIU for 6th place.

http://www.mvcfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=4791

Update: Valpo is currently leading the vote for 6th place in the MVC (32 total votes)

Valpo: 50%
SIU: 34%
IL St: 13%
UNI: 3%
LU: 0%
MSU: 0%

http://www.mvcfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=4791

Update: Valpo is still currently leading the vote for 6th place in the MVC (55 total votes)

Valpo: 49%
SIU: 29%
IL St: 15%
UNI: 4%
MSU: 4%
LU: 0%

I thought the mvc fans were an intelligent fan base.  I've seen several comment on what a good coach Wardle is....Unless something changed from his HL days, I don't see it.  Good recruiter though.  I hope we shock the mvc fans and finish top 3. 

So far our mens and womens soccer teams are doing well.  It's a big jump from HL to MVC for volleyball and thats showing. 

Quote from: oklahomamick on October 10, 2017, 11:01:15 AM
I thought the mvc fans were an intelligent fan base.  I've seen several comment on what a good coach Wardle is....Unless something changed from his HL days, I don't see it.  Good recruiter though.  I hope we shock the mvc fans and finish top 3. 

So far our mens and womens soccer teams are doing well. It's a big jump from HL to MVC for volleyball and thats showing. 

[/b]

It's more than that.  When we were up 2-0 against Illinois State and then ended up losing 3-2, we were out-coached.

Next season or this season?

Quote from: covufan on October 10, 2017, 12:07:59 PM
Next season or this season?

2017-2018 season

Quote from: oklahomamick on October 10, 2017, 11:01:15 AM
I thought the mvc fans were an intelligent fan base.  I've seen several comment on what a good coach Wardle is....Unless something changed from his HL days, I don't see it.  Good recruiter though.  I hope we shock the mvc fans and finish top 3. 

So far our mens and womens soccer teams are doing well.  It's a big jump from HL to MVC for volleyball and thats showing. 

Somewhat expected and fair imo. There isn't much of a difference between 4-7, and maybe even up to 3 in the MVC. One comment that I found surprising on the MVC board was that Valpo's ceiling was 5th. I can't argue much on the predicting a 5th place finish but I wouldn't put a hard cap on this team's ability or ceiling at 5th place in the MVC next year.

As for the Wardle comments. I think you have to give fans time to see flaws in a coach. I don't think Wardle's a great coach but I don't think he's a bad one either. Like you mentioned he's always been a great recruiter. He's actually done a really nice job recruiting at Bradley and bringing in talent but he took over a program that was in rough shape. The expectations will be higher going forward for him now that he has "his" players in place. But you never know, maybe Wardle has grown as coach from his days in Green Bay. Fun Fact: Bryce actually interviewed and was offered the Bradley job before Wardle was, but he turned it down. Smart move by Bryce.

It's a really tough year to predict the MVC this upcoming season. It should be a really tight and competitive when we get to Conference play.

I noticed someone on the MVC board make the "Valpo's not used to tougher competition" argument. I went back and checked the KenPom numbers, and (a little to my surprise) they backed up the poster's thoughts. Despite our strong non-conference scheduling over the past couple seasons, our 4 year average KenPom strength of schedule rating is the weakest of the 10 current MVC members. You really can't discount the difficulty of having your 18 conference games being against tougher competition from top to bottom. Here is how the numbers shook out.

Team       4yr Avg KenPom SoS
UNI          3.54
ISUr          1.80
ISUb          1.56
BU          1.25
DU          1.15
MSU          0.99
UE             0.04
SIU         -0.58
LUC         -0.74
Valpo      -1.22

Quote from: ml2 on October 10, 2017, 01:28:15 PM
I noticed someone on the MVC board make the "Valpo's not used to tougher competition" argument. I went back and checked the KenPom numbers, and (a little to my surprise) they backed up the poster's thoughts. Despite our strong non-conference scheduling over the past couple seasons, our 4 year average KenPom strength of schedule rating is the weakest of the 10 current MVC members. You really can't discount the difficulty of having your 18 conference games being against tougher competition from top to bottom. Here is how the numbers shook out.

Team       4yr Avg KenPom SoS
UNI          3.54
ISUr          1.80
ISUb          1.56
BU          1.25
DU          1.15
MSU          0.99
UE             0.04
SIU         -0.58
LUC         -0.74
Valpo      -1.22

You mean to tell me that playing YSU and CSU twice a year is bad for your strength of schedule??  :o

Quote from: ml2 on October 10, 2017, 01:28:15 PM
I noticed someone on the MVC board make the "Valpo's not used to tougher competition" argument. I went back and checked the KenPom numbers, and (a little to my surprise) they backed up the poster's thoughts. Despite our strong non-conference scheduling over the past couple seasons, our 4 year average KenPom strength of schedule rating is the weakest of the 10 current MVC members. You really can't discount the difficulty of having your 18 conference games being against tougher competition from top to bottom. Here is how the numbers shook out.

Team       4yr Avg KenPom SoS
UNI          3.54
ISUr          1.80
ISUb          1.56
BU          1.25
DU          1.15
MSU          0.99
UE             0.04
SIU         -0.58
LUC         -0.74
Valpo      -1.22

We know Valpo hasn't played tougher competition (on average) because of the relative weakness of the HL.  But it's easy to make too much of it if don't analyze performance. In the end, you can only beat the teams you play.  Whoever on the MVC board that even dares to invoke this logic needs to have their mid-major badge revoked and, if it's an ISUr fan, they should be made to walk the plank. This is the same argument the majors making for excluding good mid-majors from the NCAA tournament.

After reviewing my poll pick, I'm updating Valpo to finish first.

Valpo
Loyola
Illinois State
Bradley
Northern Iowa
Drake
Indiana State
Southern Illinois
Missouri State
Evansville

Will need to relook at this to see how well I did next March!

Quote from: M on October 02, 2017, 01:29:31 PM
1st place!  Probably not realistic, but I'm a fan with my blinders on when it comes to making predictions like this. 

Ditto.

It may be wishful thinking, but I'm not going to bet against a program that won the HL 5 of the past 6 years and has the highest average player ranking in the MVC.

Quote from: ml2 on October 10, 2017, 01:28:15 PM
I noticed someone on the MVC board make the "Valpo's not used to tougher competition" argument. I went back and checked the KenPom numbers, and (a little to my surprise) they backed up the poster's thoughts. Despite our strong non-conference scheduling over the past couple seasons, our 4 year average KenPom strength of schedule rating is the weakest of the 10 current MVC members. You really can't discount the difficulty of having your 18 conference games being against tougher competition from top to bottom. Here is how the numbers shook out.

Team       4yr Avg KenPom SoS
UNI          3.54
ISUr          1.80
ISUb          1.56
BU          1.25
DU          1.15
MSU          0.99
UE             0.04
SIU         -0.58
LUC         -0.74
Valpo      -1.22

This is skewed by each team playing Wichita State twice (and usually losing to them both times). So good for Bradley and Indiana State for losing to good teams? That really gives them an edge.

One of Indiana State's beat reporter has Valpo finishing 9th in the MVC...I don't want to get on my high horse but 9th is unacceptable. We better not finish 9th.

This preseason prediction is bothering me way more then it should. I almost feel offended and I'm just a fan. This is bulletin board material. The players and coaches should feel slighted by this.

https://twitter.com/TribStarTodd/status/918300476713717760

I can understand bulletin board material in a physical sport like football. But BB is a skill and finesse sport. You play with who you have. Emotion has a place but it does not always translate to points if your emotions cause you to miss shots.

Quote from: VULB#62 on October 11, 2017, 10:31:59 PM
I can understand bulletin board material in a physical sport like football. But BB is a skill and finesse sport. You play with who you have. Emotion has a place but it does not always translate to points if your emotions cause you to miss shots.

I agree and disagree. I think "bulletin board material" still helps in basketball in motivating players and causes them to have a chip on their shoulder particularly at this level. Basketball is a game of effort. There are some games where one team is favorited to win and the team comes out of the gate with zero energy or enthusiasm to play certain opponents. We've seen heavily favored Valpo teams in the past come out with a lack motivation. Stuff like this can motivate players when its in the back of their heads.

Having the most talented roster is the most important element to winning in basketball but at the collegiate level there are other important factors (more so then the pros): coaching has a greater impact at this level & energy/effort go a long way, imho.

These guys should have a chip on their shoulder if they see preseason predictions like this one.

More Missouri Valley Conference Preseason Predictions

https://twitter.com/Valpo_Hoops/status/918321020137820160

Busting Brackets did a preseason power ranking and it definitely has some surprises. I don't agree with their ranking but they are very high on Valpo next season.

https://bustingbrackets.com/2017/10/11/mvc-basketball-2017-18-power-rankings/

Quote from: VU2014 on October 11, 2017, 09:42:52 PM
One of Indiana State's beat reporter has Valpo finishing 9th in the MVC...I don't want to get on my high horse but 9th is unacceptable. We better not finish 9th.

This preseason prediction is bothering me way more then it should. I almost feel offended and I'm just a fan. This is bulletin board material. The players and coaches should feel slighted by this.

https://twitter.com/TribStarTodd/status/918300476713717760

Quote from: VU2014 on October 11, 2017, 11:21:24 PMQuote from: VU2014 on October 11, 2017, 10:42:52 PM

    One of Indiana State's beat reporter has Valpo finishing 9th in the MVC...I don't want to get on my high horse but 9th is unacceptable. We better not finish 9th.

    This preseason prediction is bothering me way more then it should. I almost feel offended and I'm just a fan. This is bulletin board material. The players and coaches should feel slighted by this.

This beat reporter guy has no clue.

Todd Goldon has lost me before he ever had me.  Can't take this guy seriously. 

Quote from: FWalum on October 12, 2017, 09:44:00 AM
This beat reporter guy has no clue.

Quote from: oklahomamick on October 12, 2017, 09:44:45 AM
Todd Goldon has lost me before he ever had me.  Can't take this guy seriously. 

Yeah I think he was erring on the side of caution with VU with graduating that great senior class/youth/new league. I would be very disappointed with the team & coaches if this team finished anywhere below 7th. Finishing 9th is just unacceptable in my opinion.

https://twitter.com/TribStarTodd/status/918304948563034112
https://twitter.com/TribStarTodd/status/918303499267567616
https://twitter.com/TribStarTodd/status/918319458862673920

Another MVC beat reporters (Illinois State) ballot:
https://twitter.com/Pg_Benson/status/918313563118333954
https://twitter.com/Pg_Benson/status/918519167980113920

Has Paul or Michael publicly released their ballot yet?

Anybody have any information on when the MVC Media day for Basketball might be?  I haven't seen anything on the MVC fan forum or on the MVC official site.

Quote from: FWalum on October 12, 2017, 12:46:33 PM
Anybody have any information on when the MVC Media day for Basketball might be?  I haven't seen anything on the MVC fan forum or on the MVC official site.

MVC Media Day is October 24. That is when they release the Preseason Polls voted on by the media.

NBC Sports issued their MVC preview here ... http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2017/10/13/2017-18-missouri-valley-conference-preview-who-steps-up-with-wichita-state-gone/ (http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2017/10/13/2017-18-missouri-valley-conference-preview-who-steps-up-with-wichita-state-gone/)  I apologize if already posted somewhere.

This seems reasonable.  But like many others, I see huge upside due to Joe Burton and the unknown raw potential of the big guys.   And of course, there is a floor of 7th or 8th in play too.

Preseason KenPom Rankings are out: https://kenpom.com/

IL St 87
Loyola 93
MoState 99
UNI 129
Valpo 131
Bradley 133
SIU 148
Evansville 160
Ind St 203
Drake 223

In terms of ranking the teams 1-10, I think he got the bottom 5-6 correct but Illinois State being the best team in the conference?  ??? I don't think so.

Valpo moves from the 17th best to the 10th best conference in the country according to kenpom.
https://twitter.com/mid_madness/status/922243749383671809

I know this is not totally valid nor does it mean anything, but based on the conference rankings, Valpo made a bigger jump in league rankings (MVC #10 from HL #17) than Wichita (AAC #7 from MVC#10). 

Quote from: VULB#62 on October 22, 2017, 09:18:34 PM
I know this is not totally valid nor does it mean anything, but based on the conference rankings, Valpo made a bigger jump in league rankings (MVC #10 from HL #17) than Wichita (AAC #7 from MVC#10). 

Shhhh!   (https://t3.ftcdn.net/jpg/00/98/69/38/240_F_98693877_OLzPDXenjlZ2kULektF6NA0j7WXwF2YT.jpg)

Someone from Oakland may get an inferiority complex.

Yet the relative increase in strength is pretty close. Wichita State jumped to a conference in the AAC that was +4.93 when compared to the Missouri Valley. While Valpo jumped +5.58 from the Horizon to the MVC. (of course these numbers have the realignments of those leagues already figured in). I guess the higher or lower you start the greater the difference. Now imagine if Murray State and perhaps Belmont make the jump to the MVC: (+8.18 WITHOUT factoring in realignment going from 24 to 10). Side note: Somehow that's still not good enough for Belmont. For the Dakotas or ORU to jump from the Summit to the MVC the move is (+6.37) None of the teams mentioned as possibilities have a resume even close to VU's at the same relative strength of competition, meaning our jump to the MVC though significant is less than the other popular candidates while we faced the strongest competition among the group of candidates and still performed the best against that competition; yet fans in the MVC seem extremely concerned with our ability to compete at their level while they don't seem nearly as concerned about these other candidates. I don't get that at all.

What's amazing to me is the disparity even among the Power 5 and the other multibid conferences. No wonder UCONN wants in to the Big East. No wonder top A10 teams want the same or even the AAC. (the rating is more than twice as great between the A10 and the AAC and about 4.5 times between the A10 and the Big East). This chart gives me hope that the MVC can be a 2-3 bid conference again. I think we should be trying to organize a conference challenge with the A10 in addition to keeping our agreement with the MWC. Our goal should be to catch these two conferences if at all possible. The chart also makes me feel bad for the top teams in the WCC who are really carrying the water for an otherwise decidedly mediocre conference. Maybe the next big wave of realignment will see them all in better leagues.

Quote from: VU2014 on October 22, 2017, 09:01:54 PM
Preseason KenPom Rankings are out: https://kenpom.com/

IL St 87
Loyola 93
MoState 99
UNI 129
Valpo 131
Bradley 133
SIU 148
Evansville 160
Ind St 203
Drake 223

In terms of ranking the teams 1-10, I think he got the bottom 5-6 correct but Illinois State being the best team in the conference?  ??? I don't think so.

Valpo moves from the 17th best to the 10th best conference in the country according to kenpom.
https://twitter.com/mid_madness/status/922243749383671809

Kenpom's preseason ratings are based on past ratings, players returning, and impact freshmen (Top 100).  So realistically, once you get outside the power conferences, it's based on past ratings and players returning.  https://kenpom.com/blog/say-hello-to-your-big-ten-overlords/

It's honestly about as good as any preseason rating system.  There are things it gets wrong, and things it gets right.  The real beauty in his system is ranking teams based purely on performance throughout the season and not using SOS numbers to determine it.

Quote from: VUGrad1314 on October 22, 2017, 11:32:52 PM
Yet the relative increase in strength is pretty close. Wichita State jumped to a conference in the AAC that was +4.93 when compared to the Missouri Valley. While Valpo jumped +5.58 from the Horizon to the MVC. (of course these numbers have the realignments of those leagues already figured in). I guess the higher or lower you start the greater the difference. Now imagine if Murray State and perhaps Belmont make the jump to the MVC: (+8.18 WITHOUT factoring in realignment going from 24 to 10). Side note: Somehow that's still not good enough for Belmont. For the Dakotas or ORU to jump from the Summit to the MVC the move is (+6.37) None of the teams mentioned as possibilities have a resume even close to VU's at the same relative strength of competition, meaning our jump to the MVC though significant is less than the other popular candidates while we faced the strongest competition among the group of candidates and still performed the best against that competition; yet fans in the MVC seem extremely concerned with our ability to compete at their level while they don't seem nearly as concerned about these other candidates. I don't get that at all.

What's amazing to me is the disparity even among the Power 5 and the other multibid conferences. No wonder UCONN wants in to the Big East. No wonder top A10 teams want the same or even the AAC. (the rating is more than twice as great between the A10 and the AAC and about 4.5 times between the A10 and the Big East). This chart gives me hope that the MVC can be a 2-3 bid conference again. I think we should be trying to organize a conference challenge with the A10 in addition to keeping our agreement with the MWC. Our goal should be to catch these two conferences if at all possible. The chart also makes me feel bad for the top teams in the WCC who are really carrying the water for an otherwise decidedly mediocre conference. Maybe the next big wave of realignment will see them all in better leagues.

In my opinion, the Big East wants UConn as its 11th team way more than UConn wants to be in the Big East.  If UConn wanted in the Big East, even as a basketball only member, they'd pretty much just have to ask.

What's crazy to look at is the KenPom conference strength numbers for the MVC and MWC going from the 2013 season to the 2014 season.  In 2013, the MWC was the 4th best conference, had 5 NCAA tourney bids, with all 5 of those teams in the top 60.  Since then they've never been better than 9th in the conference ratings, and have been a one-bid league the last 2 years despite them adding 2 schools after the 2013 season (San Jose St. and Utah St.), so they can't even blame realignment.

The MVC didn't drop in the conference rankings as much as the MWC, but in 2013, they had 2 bids, but both of those teams were rated in the top 20, and then they also had 6/10 teams in the top 100 and had a conference rating of +7.72.  Obviously a major reason for the drop was replacing Creighton with Loyola, but even so, the league (at best) has only been able to get 3/10 teams in the top 100 in the years since then.  In my opinion, for the conference to return to a consistent, multi-bid league, there definitely needs to be consistent, high-level play at the top, but the teams below that have to improve their play as well.

Quote from: VULB#62 on October 22, 2017, 09:18:34 PM
I know this is not totally valid nor does it mean anything, but based on the conference rankings, Valpo made a bigger jump in league rankings (MVC #10 from HL #17) than Wichita (AAC #7 from MVC#10). 

This may have been posted previously but, does you analysis (statement) take into account that The Valley may be ranked lower without Wichita State and adding Valpo?  The same could be said of the ACC.  They should be ranked higher after adding Wichita State.  Right?

Yes these are preseason rankings that have factored in the realignment moves. As I've shown the leap for us from the HL to the MVC is somewhat akin to the move between the MVC and the AAC is for the Shockers in terms of relative strength increase Of course the Shockers are moving from a higher starting point to a higher ending point so their potential benefit is probably greater  especially in the present NCAA climate but the magnitude of this move for Valpo cannot be understated. We've gone from no shot at an at-large bid to at least potentially having a shot as long as we all--every MVC member--pull our weight

I respectfully disagree on UCONN IrishDawg I think UCONN is realizing that the grass isn't always greener on the side of FBS football and while the AAC has some legit programs it is much more top heavy with more bottom feeders than the Big East. Make no mistake about it the Shockers may be thrilled to be in the AAC and UCONN may consider it an okay place to be right now but any non-P5 basketball school that gets an invite to the Big East will leave their present conference with a quickness that will make your head spin.

The number of rungs you rise on the ladder are interesting to compare.  But the cash gap really widens between the top rungs as you go downward from P-5 and Big East.  Wonder what the gap is in revenue?...    There were stats on basketball revenue on the board at some point.

http://www.nwitimes.com/digital/audio/union-street-hoops/podcast-union-street-hoops-episode/audio_a33ea8b8-b2cb-11e7-8117-ebddbce43123.html

Paul Oren's MVC Ballot: Definitely recommend hearing him break it down on the podcast (12:15-22:20)
1. Missouri State
2. Loyola
3. Valpo
4. Illinois State
5. Northern Iowa
6. Indiana State
7. SIU
8. Bradley
9. Drake
10. Evansville

Here's the official preseason poll.  Valpo 6th and Tevonn 2nd Team MVC.

http://www.valpoathletics.com/mbasketball/news/2017-18/17711/walker-tabbed-preseason-second-team-selection-valpo-picked-sixth/#.We9GPEyZMo8

Quote from: VULB#62 on October 24, 2017, 08:57:06 AM
Here's the official preseason poll.  Valpo 6th and Tevonn 2nd Team MVC.

http://www.valpoathletics.com/mbasketball/news/2017-18/17711/walker-tabbed-preseason-second-team-selection-valpo-picked-sixth/#.We9GPEyZMo8 (http://www.valpoathletics.com/mbasketball/news/2017-18/17711/walker-tabbed-preseason-second-team-selection-valpo-picked-sixth/#.We9GPEyZMo8)

Can't blame the voters, most of whom see this Valpo squad as an unknown quantity (as do most on this board) and are loyal to longtime conference members. However, this information should serve as motivational material for Tevonn and the team.

https://twitter.com/collegehoopnews/status/922838595538432000

Regardless of 3rd or 5th or 6th... That New Year's Eve game with Da'Bears in the ARC will be a fun one to watch.

Massey has his pre-season rankings out.  Here is the MVC:

https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=12684&s=298892

Quote from: covufan on October 24, 2017, 12:39:03 PM
Massey has his pre-season rankings out.  Here is the MVC:

https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=12684&s=298892 (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=12684&s=298892)

Interesting to check this out, which is the most optimistic pre-season ranking I have seen. It looks like he has Valpo 2nd in the MVC behind only Illinois State, and with a #104 national rank. He also predicts Valpo goes 11-7 in the conference, 17-10 overall. Right now, I'd be pleased with these results.

Those are favorable rankings and most VU fans will be happy with 17-10 record in a rebuilding year and new conference. 

However, we are used to winning conference championships, being top 10 in the mid-major rankings, getting votes, etc.

Winning 5 out of 6 season titles in the mvc is a much tougher task than the HL.  Will we grow to be unhappy if we don't dominate as we did in the HL?  At what point to we expect to be preseason #1 and get upset if we aren't? 

Quote from: oklahomamick on October 24, 2017, 02:15:37 PM
Those are favorable rankings and most VU fans will be happy with 17-10 record in a rebuilding year and new conference. 

However, we are used to winning conference championships, being top 10 in the mid-major rankings, getting votes, etc.

Winning 5 out of 6 season titles in the mvc is a much tougher task than the HL.  Will we grow to be unhappy if we don't dominate as we did in the HL?  At what point to we expect to be preseason #1 and get upset if we aren't? 

Next year.  Think about it.  We will have a full year under our belts playing with Joe and Bakari.  We lose two guys and one starter but add Ryan Fazekas, an ESPN 4 star, 6'8" guard, as well as a top 5 high schooler from Chicago.  Our seven footers are then juniors our other new guys and current freshman have had a year to get used to the college game.  If we aren't picked to win it we will be very near the top.

Quote from: VULB#62 on October 02, 2017, 02:13:31 PM
I think we finish with a 11-7 MVC record. I think we lose both games to Mo State and IL State, take both from Loyola (yes, both games), Drake, IN State and EU and split with Bradley, SIU and UNI.  I also predict that our team steadily improves over the season and that we lose only 2 games (@ SIU and IL State) in the final 8 games of the season and come into Arch Madness as everyone's dark horse.   :thumbsup:

Before he posted his ratings, Massey contacted me and I referred him to my October 2nd post on this board.  He evidently agreed with me   :rotfl:

Quote from: valpopal on October 24, 2017, 12:57:43 PM

Quote from: covufan on October 24, 2017, 12:39:03 PM
Massey has his pre-season rankings out.  Here is the MVC:

https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=12684&s=298892 (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=12684&s=298892)

Interesting to check this out, which is the most optimistic pre-season ranking I have seen. It looks like he has Valpo 2nd in the MVC behind only Illinois State, and with a #104 national rank. He also predicts Valpo goes 11-7 in the conference, 17-10 overall. Right now, I'd be pleased with these results.

Quote from: vu72 on October 24, 2017, 03:48:59 PM
Next year.  Think about it.  We will have a full year under our belts playing with Joe and Bakari.  We lose two guys and one starter but add Ryan Fazekas, an ESPN 4 star, 6'8" guard, as well as a top 5 high schooler from Chicago.  Our seven footers are then juniors our other new guys and current freshman have had a year to get used to the college game.  If we aren't picked to win it we will be very near the top.

I thought about it, and you're right.  I don't see any way other MVC teams can match the talent Valpo will have next year.   :thumbsup:

Quote from: vu72 on October 23, 2017, 08:56:45 AMThe same could be said of the ACC.

You must be very careful with those initials. The AAC (American Athletic Conference) is extremely different from the ACC (Atlantic Coast Conference), a true P5 conference.

[tweet]923256180583092224[/tweet]

[tweet]923250895663632384[/tweet]

Here are some of Norlander's Valpo-and-above picks (MVC teams in Bold) that have  some sort of a Valpo relationship

14 Northwestern
24 Purdue
25 URI
45 Oakland
46 Vandy
54 Butler
58 Mo State
74 Loyola
90 Belmont
103 Ball State
109 ISUr
119 NKU
122 Northern Iowa
144 UIC
154 Murray
155 SIU
158 Wright State
160 Valpo

Not bad but I think Valpo should be in the Top 150. Somewhere in the Top 130-150 seems more appropriate, imho.

Valpo's Non-Conference Schedule:
14. Northwestern
24. Purdue
103. Ball State (should be tough opponent. At first I thought this was a bit high for them but after thinking it over it might not be.)
130. Santa Clara Broncos  ??? (I question this one...)
137. Samford Bulldogs
159. UNC-Wilmington Seahawks
170. Kent State Golden Flashes
171. Utah State Aggies (too low, imo)
212. Southeastern Louisiana Lions (too low)
281. California Riverside Highlanders (I wish we could have landed a better opponent for that west coast road trip)
335. SIU-Edwardsville Cougars  :(

Don't think I had seen this article posted on here, Valparaiso Basketball: 2017-18 preview for the Crusaders (https://bustingbrackets.com/2017/10/25/valparaiso-basketball-2017-18-preview-for-the-crusaders/) they actually break down who they think are the starters and the reserve players.  They have Linssen pencilled in as the starting 4 which I had not seen before from other sources.  They also have Barkari Evelyn coming off of the bench...

Very nice format with links to all players stats and a short look at the non-conference and conference schedule.

Quote from: FWalum on October 25, 2017, 04:53:39 PM
Don't think I had seen this article posted on here, Valparaiso Basketball: 2017-18 preview for the Crusaders (https://bustingbrackets.com/2017/10/25/valparaiso-basketball-2017-18-preview-for-the-crusaders/) they actually break down who they think are the starters and the reserve players.  They have Linssen pencilled in as the starting 4 which I had not seen before from other sources.  They also have Barkari Evelyn coming off of the bench...

Very nice format with links to all players stats and a short look at the non-conference and conference schedule.

As Bakari is only a Sophomore, eligibility wise, I suppose it would be a huge slight for Max not getting the nod in his Senior year.  Linssen was my pick, unseen for the 4 as we have heard about his rebounding which is one of Matt's keys to the game.

It was interesting to see Max starting. Maybe he could but the assumption is that Bakari will be the starting PG. If Max turns out to be a floor general this year we might want to pair him on the court when the freshman are in the games. He could be a calming presence on the court when we have a young lineup out there. Lexus did a real good job of helping calm the offense with the second unit last year. Valpo has benefited the last handful of season of having true floor generals like Keith Carter and Lexus.

Valpo Preseason Rank: 127
Offense (rank): 105 (176th)
Defense (rank): 100.6 (94th)
MVC Rank: 4th (behind UNI at 124)

https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2017/10/31/ncaa-351-team-preseason-rankings-projections-seeds?utm_campaign=si-ncaabb&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&xid=socialflow_twitter_si

MVC Rank:
92 Loyola (#13 seed)
106 MO St
124 UNI
127 Valpo
146 IL St
157 SIU
161 Bradley
173 E-Ville
180 IN St
223 Drake

Valpo's Non-Conference:
17 Purdue
22 Northwestern
118 Samford
136 Utah State
138 UNCW
153 Santa Clara
172 Ball State
181 Kent State
224 SE Louisiana
235 Northern Illinois (Not on the non-conf schedule but we just scrimmaged them)
268 UC Riverside
324 SIUE
339 Chicago State (Charity Exhibition game this weekend)

Received 31 votes in the mid major poll. Samford will be a solid early season test. Valpo is 5th among MVC teams. MSU, Loyola, Northern Iowa, Illinois St. then Valpo. Missouri St. is the only team in the top 25. Two HL teams  in the top 11. Will Oakland and NKU be that good?? I feel like this poll will be drastically different by the end of November!


http://www.collegeinsider.com/mens-mid-major-top-25.php

Quote from: VUSWIM08-12 on October 31, 2017, 03:55:44 PM
Received 31 votes in the mid major poll. Samford will be a solid early season test. Valpo is 5th among MVC teams. MSU, Loyola, Northern Iowa, Illinois St. then Valpo. Missouri St. is the only team in the top 25. Two HL teams  in the top 11. Will Oakland and NKU be that good?? I feel like this poll will be drastically different by the end of November!

http://www.collegeinsider.com/mens-mid-major-top-25.php

Oakland should be good. "bold-prediction": I think OU will actually beats Syracuse during their conference schedule this season. All of OU's best players are seniors & Syracuse is not the Syracuse of old this year but they're still a very big name. That OU team is the textbook definition of tourney or bust this season because its their best shot.

NKU should be good. Drew McDonald is really good and they have some other nice players. I think some people tend to overrate them because there was a stretch during the UK vs NKU tourney game where NKU wasn't pushed over and that surprised people.

Quote from: VU2014 on October 31, 2017, 04:22:13 PM

Quote from: VUSWIM08-12 on October 31, 2017, 03:55:44 PM
Received 31 votes in the mid major poll. Samford will be a solid early season test. Valpo is 5th among MVC teams. MSU, Loyola, Northern Iowa, Illinois St. then Valpo. Missouri St. is the only team in the top 25. Two HL teams  in the top 11. Will Oakland and NKU be that good?? I feel like this poll will be drastically different by the end of November!

http://www.collegeinsider.com/mens-mid-major-top-25.php

Oakland should be good. "bold-prediction": I think OU will actually beats Syracuse during their conference schedule this season. All of OU's best players are seniors & Syracuse is not the Syracuse of old this year but they're still a very big name. That OU team is the textbook definition of tourney or bust this season because its their best shot.

NKU should be good. Drew McDonald is really good and they have some other nice players. I think some people tend to overrate them because there was a stretch during the UK vs NKU tourney game where NKU wasn't pushed over and that surprised people.

I don't know about NKU.  They beat us by 4 at the end of the season, at their place and no Alec or Jabril.  Tevonn outscored McDonald. We will be much better than the team that lost to them that night.

Took the Fort Wayne Concordia Lutheran coaches to VU yesterday and spent the afternoon at practice. Talked to Mark LaBarbera, John Kuka and then to Coach Gore after practice.  Watching one practice can only give you a "first" impression of the team, but it was a VERY favorable one. This is one athletic group of players. A half court 3 man weave with 3 layups had most players throwing it down with ease. Team was divided into Gold and White squads and the competition was fierce and the fight for rebounds almost made me afraid someone would get hurt. I believe that the overall ball handling of the group, especially considering their size, is better than most of our past teams.  It was very obvious that both McMillan and Hazen played out of position on their high school teams, both handled the ball well and a lot. There will be some growing pains, but it was obvious from our conversation with Coach Gore that the staff is excited, he couldn't stop smiling and had really positive things to say about everyone on the team.  Lots of time spent on press break and defense.  Off the break the emphasis was on attacking the basket, coach Lottich did not want the ball pulled back out unless there was absolutely no advantage, we have the players and athletes so finishing should be a strength. Lots of work regarding defensive positioning on screens, Lottich wants us to be in proper position rather than relying on athletic ability, was very detailed about this aspect. Bakari Evelyn handles the ball very well and can get to the rack. Coach Gore said he is VERY accomplished at running the pick and roll. Burton, Golder Evelyn and Walker all showed the ability to hit the 3. I don't know that we have anyone with Alec's skill set, we don't have one player that can replace him, but when everyone finds their place on this team I believe it has the ingredients to be very good.

One of McMillan's summer coaches was also there, he is very high on him. I asked if he was surprised to see Mileek handling the ball so much and he said no, he is that good of a player. One other thing about McMillan, he looked bigger than he did when I saw him playing last season. Coach Gore said that he is still growing, has grown an inch since this summer and has a current wing span of about 7' 3".  Ryan Fazekas is still recovering from shoulder surgery in late May and did not participate in any on court activities except shooting and that was all I needed to see, the young man can stroke the ball.

Interesting to see Ball State getting AP Top 25 votes.  ??? I think they'll be good but wouldn't predict them being Top 25 good.
https://twitter.com/BallStateSports/status/925777160257916928

Some well thought out breakdowns of each team.

https://twitter.com/mid_madness/status/926114786961772545

Missouri Valley Conference preseason power rankings: The race is wide open with Wichita State gone
by Harry Schroeder@FatherHarry1  Nov 2, 2017, 8:52am PDT

Wichita State is gone and the new era of Missouri Valley Conference basketball begins with Missouri State laying claim to the favorite status. The Bears have the league's best player in Alize Johnson, a deep and experienced squad, and one of the best recruiting classes in recent years.

Last year's co-champion Illinois State has been decimated by graduation and graduate transfers, and an injury to their top recruit. The Redbirds will likely slip back into the MVC pack, while Northern Iowa and Loyola look to be Missouri State's chief competitors.

Valparaiso replaces Wichita as the league's 10th team and its transition from the Horizon League to the MVC should be easier than Loyola's was in 2014.

Preseason Power Rankings:
1. Missouri State Bears
2. Northern Iowa Panthers
3. Loyola-Chicago Ramblers
4. Illinois State Redbirds
5. Valparaiso Crusaders
6. Southern Illinois Salukis
7. Bradley Braves
8. Indiana State Sycamores
9. Evansville Purple Aces
10. Drake Bulldogs

Harry Schroeder did a guest rankings for Mid-Major Madness. He has a really great site dedicated to content about the Missouri Valley & OVC Basketball Conference.
http://www.valleyhoopsinsider.com/category/conferences/missouri-valley/

Quote from: VU2014 on November 01, 2017, 07:11:41 PM
Interesting to see Ball State getting AP Top 25 votes.  ??? I think they'll be good but wouldn't predict them being Top 25 good.
https://twitter.com/BallStateSports/status/925777160257916928

Seth Davis admitted he mistakenly voted Ball State at #22 instead of Baylor. 

Easily the most bullish predictions I've seen for Valpo yet.

Vegas Stats & Information Network's Missouri Valley Conference Prediction:
1. Valparaiso
2. Missouri State
3. Northern Iowa
4. Illinois State
5. Loyola Chicago
6. Southern Illinois
7. Indiana State
8. Bradley
9. Evansville
10. Drake
https://www.vsin.com/missouri-valley-topped-by-newcomer-valparaiso-missouri-state/

Valparaiso is the conference newcomer and should make a run at the top spot immediately. The Crusaders have won 22 or more games in six of the past seven seasons and are coming off a 24-9 season.

Their roster has turned over a lot, especially with 6-foot-9 stretch player Alec Peters and 6-foot-7 Shane Hammink out of eligibility. They were the top two players on the team last year in points and assists, with Peters also being the top rebounder.

Those huge losses means it will be Tevonn Walker's team this year, and he's coming off a season in which he had 11.9 points and 5.6 rebounds. The question now becomes, who will pass him the ball? One of the team's main ball-handlers, Lexus Williams, transferred to Boise State during the spring. That leaves it up to senior Max Joseph, who had 5.7 points and 1.8 assists per game as a solid complimentary backcourt piece a season ago.

If the team can get contributions from Nebraska transfer Bakari Evelyn and Oklahoma State transfer Joe Burton, the backcourt should have a good amount of options to choose from to make jumpers. Evelyn did not see much playing time in one season in the Big Ten, while Burton had 4.7 points per game as a sophomore during the 2015-16 season while making 39.7 percent of his 3s.

The team will have plenty of size down low and a world of potential, but not a lot of experience.

Sophomores Jaume Sorolla and Derrik Smits, the son of former NBA center Rik Smits, had a combined 8.6 points and 6.6 rebounds per game last year. With those two standing 6-foot-11 and 7-foot-1, respectively, they should discourage many foes from driving into the paint.

If three-star 6-foot-7 stretch player Parker Hazen can either start at small forward or be a priority reserve, Valparaiso will be one of the most dangerous mid-major teams in America.

Crusaders coach Matt Lottich has all the weapons to chase down a fourth straight conference title, and if he can put the pieces of this puzzle together, it should led to a trip to the NCAA Tournament.