NCAA College Basketball Talk

[bigmosmithfan1]

This is why power leagues still get the benefit of the doubt.  When your entire league is better than all but maybe one school in a mid-major league, the difference in your opponent on a nightly basis is very, very real.

Says you. The unwillingness to play quality mids says otherwise. (Also, this is always based on the assumption that the P5 teams wouldn't have to go to the mid-major team's place for half the hypothetical conference schedule).

[IrishDawg]

Here is the main fallacy in your observation, there would be less of a need for the subjective review and selection of teams if the Power Leagues would be less incestuous and more willing to play Mid Majors on neutral courts or actual away games.  Giving bids to Power League teams that have not played any significant teams in an away situation other than teams in their own league is not a way to truly measure the worthiness of teams.  Who is to say that deserving Mid Majors, who did not make the tournament, could not have advanced to the Sweet 16 or Elite 8, especially if they were not burdened with low seeds because marginal Power League teams were given higher seeds.  Do you really think that Loyola, the best team in the 8th ranked conference deserved to be an 11 seed?  The "metrics" are clearly wrong because those being judged are not all playing under the same circumstances.

I apologize in advance for the length of this post.

There wouldn't be a need at all for subjective review if they would adopt an analytical/predictive model to simply pick and seed teams rather than using Q1, Top 50 or other BS metric that they can follow, but only sometimes.  The selection/seeding piece of the committee at the very least should be dissolved in my opinion.  You could even use an algorithm to place teams in regions if they want to keep their (such and such teams can't play each other in the 1st round) and other placement and region rules.

Unfortunately they'll never adopt my suggestion any more than they will require teams to have a better than .500 record in conference or require mid-major away games to P5 programs.  But if the aim really is to get the best 68 teams in the field, this would truly be the way to do the best job of it.  Scheduling wouldn't matter.  If you play well enough against the competition you face during the year, whether it's mid-major or power programs, you're in.

Also, Loyola wasn't grossly misseeded under a predictive model either, as they were around the 40th ranked team prior to the tournament, so at best you could move them up a seed line under my proposal.  Here are the teams that were grossly (seeded 3 or more lines higher or lower than the predictive model suggests and what happened to them in the tournament).

Xavier - 1 seed (would have been a 4 seed under predictive model) - lost in 2nd round to Florida State, who would have been a 9 seed under predictive model
Miami - 6 seed (would have been a 10 seed) - lost in first round to Loyola
Rhode Island - 7 seed (wouldn't have gotten in) - beat Oklahoma, who also wouldn't have gotten in, and lost to Duke, who would have been a 1 seed
Alabama - 9 seed (wouldn't have gotten in) - beat Virginia Tech, who would have been an 8 seed and lost to Villanova, who would have been a 1 seed
Butler - 10 seed (would have been a 6 seed) - beat Arkansas, who would have been a 9 seed and lost in 2nd round to Purdue, who would have been a 2 seed
Providence - 10 seed (wouldn't have gotten in) - lost to Texas A&M in first round, who would have been an 8 seed
St. Bonaventure/UCLA/Syracuse - 11 seeds - None of these would have been in under a predictive model.  Syracuse went to the Sweet 16, but still doesn't mean they should have gotten in

Teams that would have gotten in but didn't: Penn State (8 seed), St. Mary's (7 seed), Baylor (9 seed), Louisville (9 seed), Maryland (11 seed)

[FieldGoodie05]

This is why power leagues still get the benefit of the doubt.  When your entire league is better than all but maybe one school in a mid-major league, the difference in your opponent on a nightly basis is very, very real.  The goal of the selection committee should be to get the best 68 teams in the field once the auto-bids have been decided.  Giving it to a team like Saint Mary's because they had a better conference record against weaker opponents (8 games against teams ranked in the 200s, and only 4 games against teams in the top 100) may make people feel better, but a better record (which is what RPI relied a lot upon) doesn't automatically make for a better team.  3 Sweet 16 teams and 1 Elite Eight team in this year's tourney would have kept out of the tournament under your proposal.

Here is the main fallacy in your observation, there would be less of a need for the subjective review and selection of teams if the Power Leagues would be less incestuous and more willing to play Mid Majors on neutral courts or actual away games.  Giving bids to Power League teams that have not played any significant teams in an away situation other than teams in their own league is not a way to truly measure the worthiness of teams.  Who is to say that deserving Mid Majors, who did not make the tournament, could not have advanced to the Sweet 16 or Elite 8, especially if they were not burdened with low seeds because marginal Power League teams were given higher seeds.  Do you really think that Loyola, the best team in the 8th ranked conference deserved to be an 11 seed?  The "metrics" are clearly wrong because those being judged are not all playing under the same circumstances.

I wouldn't call it a fallacy, I'd call that smart strategy.  It might annoy me, but not as much as some posters on this forum.

The P5 don't have any incentive to schedule us most years.  And quite frankly even if the NCAA feature more at-large Mid Majors I'm not altogether certain it gives P5 any more revenue from added viewership.

I think we are all just pissing into the wind.  Especially absurd is Mid Majors protesting NCAA tournament by not accepting at-large or auto bids.  WE MEAN NOTHING TO THE POWERS THAT BE.

We need a Sweet 16 of Mid Majors starting Thanksgiving weekend and ending by December 15th (schools mostly still in session).  Top 5 Mid Majors get 2-bids (voted by coaches pre season) and the last 6 teams come off Mid Major Top 25?

[IrishDawg]

This is why power leagues still get the benefit of the doubt.  When your entire league is better than all but maybe one school in a mid-major league, the difference in your opponent on a nightly basis is very, very real.

Says you. The unwillingness to play quality mids says otherwise. (Also, this is always based on the assumption that the P5 teams wouldn't have to go to the mid-major team's place for half the hypothetical conference schedule).

Says a lot of ranking models that have people a lot smarter than either of us putting them together and are in line with Vegas oddsmakers.  Scheduling has less to do with the strength of mid-major programs and is more of a perception/money thing in my opinion.  The power conference teams have the TV deals, know that they don't need games against top mid major programs to get those games on TV or to get them in the tournament, and don't want to risk any of that to play a road game that they could figuratively lose, and even if they won, would gain no substantial benefit (either perceptually or otherwise).  The coaches that are making these schedules don't want to risk their livelihoods, and I can't say I blame them when millions of dollars are literally on the line.

[valpo95]

Keep in mind that the goal is not to have the best 68 teams in the tournament. If that were the case, the auto-bids for the lowest ranked conferences would not exist, and think of the record of 16 seeds (with one exception!) in their first-round matchups. Yet those conference tournaments are playoffs for chances to get into the big dance.

Requiring a .500 record or better in conference for an at-large bid would open up 2-3 more slots for deserving mid-majors to make the tournament. It also rewards teams for winning the games on their schedule. We just don't need to see mediocre P5 teams getting in on their reputation - they had numerous chances to show how good they are and were average at best against the teams they played.

Once implemented, this also would help scheduling:The P5 teams would want to have a few more difficult non-conference games to be ready for conference play rather than the cupcake scheduling that is so prevalent right now. Teams would figure out that playing 1 or 2 true road games in non-conference play would get them more ready to go on the road in conference.   

[4throwfan]

Valpo95, you might be right that in that the .500 requirement may provoke middling P5 schools to schedule more high mid-majors.  But I disagreed in a separate post.  My view was that the middling schools would want more cupcake OOC matchups.  If a middling school could enter the P5 conference schedule with only 1 or 2 losses, then it would be easier to get to .500.

My question is: is their data to show that the .500 requirement for bowl games in college football has enticed schools to schedule tougher OOC matchups, or are there more cupcakes?  Seems like that might tell a person how a school would react to a .500 requirement.

[IrishDawg]

Keep in mind that the goal is not to have the best 68 teams in the tournament. If that were the case, the auto-bids for the lowest ranked conferences would not exist, and think of the record of 16 seeds (with one exception!) in their first-round matchups. Yet those conference tournaments are playoffs for chances to get into the big dance.

Requiring a .500 record or better in conference for an at-large bid would open up 2-3 more slots for deserving mid-majors to make the tournament. It also rewards teams for winning the games on their schedule. We just don't need to see mediocre P5 teams getting in on their reputation - they had numerous chances to show how good they are and were average at best against the teams they played.

Once implemented, this also would help scheduling:The P5 teams would want to have a few more difficult non-conference games to be ready for conference play rather than the cupcake scheduling that is so prevalent right now. Teams would figure out that playing 1 or 2 true road games in non-conference play would get them more ready to go on the road in conference.

Requiring a .500 record or better in the Big 12, where you're literally playing top 50 opponents almost every night isn't even the same as going .500 in the Pac 12, so while you can say it would keep mediocre P5 programs out, chances are these schools wouldn't be replaced by mid-majors, they'd just be replaced by other power schools who did meet the conference record requirements, because a lot of their leagues now have imbalanced scheduling where some teams have an easier conference schedule than others.  I also believe it wouldn't give those programs incentive to schedule road games against mid-major programs because rather than arriving beaten up physically and mentally into their conference slate, coaches would want their guys confident and well rested, because conference play is the real grind of the season.

Programs with 9-9 records (or better) in Power conferences who didn't make the tournament
Nebraska - 13-5 in the Big Ten
USC - 12-6 in the Pac 12
Utah - 11-7 in the Pac 12
Stanford - 11-7 in the Pac 12
Oregon - 10-8 in the Pac 12
Washington - 10-8 in the Pac 12
Penn State - 9-9 in the Big Ten
Marquette - 9-9 in the Big East
Louisville - 9-9 in the ACC
Mississippi St - 9-9 in the SEC

Teams with sub .500 conference records who did make the tournament:
Arizona State
Oklahoma
Texas
Syracuse
Alabama

[valpo95]

Requiring a .500 record or better in the Big 12, where you're literally playing top 50 opponents almost every night isn't even the same as going .500 in the Pac 12, so while you can say it would keep mediocre P5 programs out, chances are these schools wouldn't be replaced by mid-majors, they'd just be replaced by other power schools who did meet the conference record requirements

IrishDawg, I appreciate your comments. I agree that the Big12 is a great conference, with very good opponents every night. Yet Oklahoma got in to the tournament after going 2-8 in their final 10 games, including a first round loss in the Big12 tournament. BTW, Oklahoma was a 10 seed, and Loyola was an 11 seed.

Because of the strength of the Big12, I'm OK with a .500 record in conference play to be eligible for the tournament. Yet this is an eligibility criteria, not a guaranteed invitation - the selection committee would still have to pick from among the best eligible teams. 

To continue the example, if the five teams you listed did NOT make the tournament, not all five will be mid-majors. Perhaps Nebraska, USC and Utah get selected. Yet two excellent mid-majors also get in. Consider St. Marys (28-5, 16-2 WCC and an RPI of 40 as of Selection Sunday) would also get in, as does Middle Tennessee (23-7, 16-2 CUSA and an RPI of 33 on Selection Sunday). Now, I haven't looked at all of the possible permutations, or if these are the best 5 teams to replace them. All this does is open more doors for deserving teams as a chance to play in the tournament.

[IrishDawg]

Requiring a .500 record or better in the Big 12, where you're literally playing top 50 opponents almost every night isn't even the same as going .500 in the Pac 12, so while you can say it would keep mediocre P5 programs out, chances are these schools wouldn't be replaced by mid-majors, they'd just be replaced by other power schools who did meet the conference record requirements

IrishDawg, I appreciate your comments. I agree that the Big12 is a great conference, with very good opponents every night. Yet Oklahoma got in to the tournament after going 2-8 in their final 10 games, including a first round loss in the Big12 tournament. BTW, Oklahoma was a 10 seed, and Loyola was an 11 seed.

Because of the strength of the Big12, I'm OK with a .500 record in conference play to be eligible for the tournament. Yet this is an eligibility criteria, not a guaranteed invitation - the selection committee would still have to pick from among the best eligible teams. 

To continue the example, if the five teams you listed did NOT make the tournament, not all five will be mid-majors. Perhaps Nebraska, USC and Utah get selected. Yet two excellent mid-majors also get in. Consider St. Marys (28-5, 16-2 WCC and an RPI of 40 as of Selection Sunday) would also get in, as does Middle Tennessee (23-7, 16-2 CUSA and an RPI of 33 on Selection Sunday). Now, I haven't looked at all of the possible permutations, or if these are the best 5 teams to replace them. All this does is open more doors for deserving teams as a chance to play in the tournament.

Really if you look at the NIT seeding, you would see who the next 5 teams would be, and if we used your criteria, it'd be some combination of:
St. Mary's
USC
Utah
Louisville
Marquette

MTSU would have been close, but would still likely be out.  I appreciate the discussion even if I don't agree with everything that is being said.  I also agree with you on Oklahoma.  They basically had the same rating as Rhode Island, another at-large team that I don't believe should have made the tournament.  Loyola was six spots ahead of Oklahoma going into the tournament on kenpom, so I agree that if we're seeding those two teams, Loyola should have been ahead of Oklahoma, but not by more than Oklahoma was ahead of them on the seed lines.

[VU2014]

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Steve McClain is shady...

https://twitter.com/HoopDirt/status/1051981877467389957

[VU2014]

All of the major programs are funneling $ under the table to their elite recruits.

https://twitter.com/br_CBB/status/1052336011760599040

[VU2014]

Good article

https://twitter.com/DanWetzel/status/1052167950189416448

[VU2014]

Thank God we're in the Valley. The Horizon is terrible.

https://twitter.com/mid_madness/status/1054109427261997060

[VUGrad1314]

Preseason Kenpom Rankings:

MVC 10

OVC 24

Earth to Belmont! Come in Belmont! This is your program's future best interests calling. Do you read me?

[IrishDawg]

Thank God we're in the Valley. The Horizon is terrible.

https://twitter.com/mid_madness/status/1054109427261997060

True - but in the Valley Valpo also has a lot tougher competition for that tourney spot.  Valpo's rated 6th in the preseason ratings with a projected conference record of 9-9, while in the Horizon League they'd have the 2nd best rating, with really only 2 other teams (Wright State and NKU) in their same realm this year.  If Valpo where in the HL instead of IUPUI, the Horizon league would be 3 spots higher in the league rankings.  MVC ranking wouldn't really change.

As for Belmont and Murray State, since those are the popular adds to the league (Belmont's also the league favorite by a decent margin according to Kenpom), their additions would move the MVC's rating number up, but only marginally (by maybe 0.2 points), which suggests they aren't really getting the league more revenue in terms of tourney bids.

Preseason Kenpom Rankings:

MVC 10

OVC 24

Earth to Belmont! Come in Belmont! This is your program's future best interests calling. Do you read me?

In the MVC, they'd be the 4th highest rated team in the kenpom preseason ratings, with a ton of teams going after a single tournament bid in most years.  In the OVC, they basically have one team (Murray State) that they're competing with each year for a tourney, or at least an NIT bid.  The MVC is undoubtedly a better league with a better tournament pedigree, but when you can tout to recruits that you get to the tournament or NIT most years vs. we're in a league whose representative (and it wouldn't be them most years) goes to the tournament with a slightly better seed line, I think for them it's splitting hairs which is really better for their program's future best interests, and most people have egos and want to be able to say it's their school rather than their league doing these good things.

[EddieCabot]

Thank God we're in the Valley. The Horizon is terrible.

https://twitter.com/mid_madness/status/1054109427261997060

True - but in the Valley Valpo also has a lot tougher competition for that tourney spot.  Valpo's rated 6th in the preseason ratings with a projected conference record of 9-9, while in the Horizon League they'd have the 2nd best rating, with really only 2 other teams (Wright State and NKU) in their same realm this year.  If Valpo where in the HL instead of IUPUI, the Horizon league would be 3 spots higher in the league rankings.  MVC ranking wouldn't really change.

As for Belmont and Murray State, since those are the popular adds to the league (Belmont's also the league favorite by a decent margin according to Kenpom), their additions would move the MVC's rating number up, but only marginally (by maybe 0.2 points), which suggests they aren't really getting the league more revenue in terms of tourney bids.

Preseason Kenpom Rankings:

MVC 10

OVC 24

Earth to Belmont! Come in Belmont! This is your program's future best interests calling. Do you read me?

In the MVC, they'd be the 4th highest rated team in the kenpom preseason ratings, with a ton of teams going after a single tournament bid in most years.  In the OVC, they basically have one team (Murray State) that they're competing with each year for a tourney, or at least an NIT bid.  The MVC is undoubtedly a better league with a better tournament pedigree, but when you can tout to recruits that you get to the tournament or NIT most years vs. we're in a league whose representative (and it wouldn't be them most years) goes to the tournament with a slightly better seed line, I think for them it's splitting hairs which is really better for their program's future best interests, and most people have egos and want to be able to say it's their school rather than their league doing these good things.

Belmont probably has a better chance getting to the NCAA tourney in the OVC, but there are other factors to consider.  For example, Valpo's two recent conference moves were huge in financial terms.  They left the Mid-Con/Summit when that league was one-and-done in the tournament every year to join a Horizon League that sent multiple teams and gathered multiple wins during Valpo's 1st four seasons there.  Once the Horizon went down the toilet and became one-and-done in the tourney for 6 straight years, Valpo joined the MVC and in Year 1 gets a split of the money Loyola earned for the Final Four run.  Perfect timing!

Beyond that, playing in a conference with better teams brings more national attention and provides more interesting conference games for your fans. 

[VUGrad1314]

I know we like to take shots at the HL and what it's become and at some of its members and I'm as guilty as anyone of this but there is so much "There but for the grace of God go I" level luck involved in our call up to the Valley. These facts are not lost on me and are never far from my mind when I think about how far we've come. I am in no way saying that VU didn't earn their spot nor am I attempting to besmirch the effort and commitment that all of this has required  but one of the main ingredients involved was timing. If there had been a massive realignment event in 07 that affected the MVC it is highly likely that Milwaukee who we now thumb our noses at and regard as a dumpster fire or Butler or both would have been called up, meaning no share in the deep Butler runs for Valpo no rival to cut our teeth against as we moved to the HL and a watered down likely one bid league we may or may not have come to dominate. If the MVC moves happen even 2-3 years sooner than they did when Valpo was still very much in the process of building their case  (Wichita State had been making noise about leaving for awhile I think it even predated Creighton's departure) it is very likely that Murray State would have received much greater consideration. We are fortunate and blessed to be where we are and we should always remember that. I am glad beyond measure that we have seized every opportunity we have been given. The reminders in this post are as much for myself as anyone else.

[4throwfan]

I take three things from the list.

1. As stated by someone else, very glad to be in a better league.  Glad the team made the switch.
2. Seems like there are several conferences geographically close to MVC, with similar ratings.  I'd be on the phone with them to set up an annual challenge for scheduling purposes.  Maybe ambitious, but I'd like to see at least two challenges.
3. Horizon's slide is sad/unfortunate, and I don't see it turning around.  The problem with that conference is that it is predominantly comprised of commuter schools.  Commuter schools just don't have large followings.  They just don't.  That means that there are not a lot of alumni league-wide who care about the outcome of the games or the seasons.  If people don't care for a long while, then things will decline.  Based on that, it seems that the decline started with Butler's exit, and continued with Loyola and VU's exits (i.e., destination schools), and was exasperated with IUPUI's entrance.  I don't like to see anyone or entity not be successful, but I just don't see how the HL turns it around in the current environment of overall apathy.  Seems that it will be worse for them.  Very unfortunate.

[IrishDawg]

Belmont probably has a better chance getting to the NCAA tourney in the OVC, but there are other factors to consider.  For example, Valpo's two recent conference moves were huge in financial terms.  They left the Mid-Con/Summit when that league was one-and-done in the tournament every year to join a Horizon League that sent multiple teams and gathered multiple wins during Valpo's 1st four seasons there.  Once the Horizon went down the toilet and became one-and-done in the tourney for 6 straight years, Valpo joined the MVC and in Year 1 gets a split of the money Loyola earned for the Final Four run.  Perfect timing!

Beyond that, playing in a conference with better teams brings more national attention and provides more interesting conference games for your fans.

Was it really huge in financial terms though?  For example - Loyola's run this year nets the MVC $8.5M, which sounds like quite a bit.  If they divvy it up equally between the schools and the league office, that's 11 shares divided equally comes to $775,000 per school to be paid out over 6 years, which is just $129,000 per year, per school.  Don't get me wrong, there is value in it, but given that the payout for Valpo in the Horizon League was roughly the same in its last year of the Horizon as it will be in the MVC next year, it's good that Valpo left the Horizon when they did, but the funds coming into the program haven't really changed going from league to league.

I also agree that the games in the MVC should matter more to fans, even in a bad season, and I would guess next year at least for the Loyola game it will, but Valpo's attendance bump seems to be more related to the team's performance rather than what league the team's in.

[vu72]

Belmont probably has a better chance getting to the NCAA tourney in the OVC, but there are other factors to consider.  For example, Valpo's two recent conference moves were huge in financial terms.  They left the Mid-Con/Summit when that league was one-and-done in the tournament every year to join a Horizon League that sent multiple teams and gathered multiple wins during Valpo's 1st four seasons there.  Once the Horizon went down the toilet and became one-and-done in the tourney for 6 straight years, Valpo joined the MVC and in Year 1 gets a split of the money Loyola earned for the Final Four run.  Perfect timing!

Beyond that, playing in a conference with better teams brings more national attention and provides more interesting conference games for your fans.

Was it really huge in financial terms though?  For example - Loyola's run this year nets the MVC $8.5M, which sounds like quite a bit.  If they divvy it up equally between the schools and the league office, that's 11 shares divided equally comes to $775,000 per school to be paid out over 6 years, which is just $129,000 per year, per school.  Don't get me wrong, there is value in it, but given that the payout for Valpo in the Horizon League was roughly the same in its last year of the Horizon as it will be in the MVC next year, it's good that Valpo left the Horizon when they did, but the funds coming into the program haven't really changed going from league to league.

I also agree that the games in the MVC should matter more to fans, even in a bad season, and I would guess next year at least for the Loyola game it will, but Valpo's attendance bump seems to be more related to the team's performance rather than what league the team's in.

You missed the point.  What is the impact going forward as in what would have Valpo's share of the Horizon's League's piece be in comparison to the Valley's?

[VUGrad1314]

My first instinct is to say that this would be very bad for mid-major basketball but maybe I'm wrong.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/player-compensation-lawsuit-vs-ncaa-could-usher-in-new-round-of-conference-realignment/

[VUGrad1314]

Would be awesome if we could stay in it but I can't see how this will be allowed since Valpo and Illinois State are both in the MVC.

https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/status/1054783476208148481

[FWalum]

Would be awesome if we could stay in it but I can't see how this will be allowed since Valpo and Illinois State are both in the MVC.

https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/status/1054783476208148481

If they didn't already know that before announcing the lineup then someone related to the Paradise Jam must be really stupid, after all we have been an MVC member for 15 months now.  They must have some workaround in mind.

[VUGrad1314]

Some articles that may affect realignment in the future:

UT-Arlington kicking around the idea of starting football (Note: it's a longshot).

https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/college-sports/collegesports/2018/10/25/exclusive-ut-arlington-considering-reviving-football-program-30-years-after-disbanded

More UCONN to Big East chatter (Personally, I think this one will eventually happen)

https://twitter.com/TheUConnBlog/status/1055835299157303297

https://twitter.com/NJHoopsHaven/status/1055830334800121856

[VU2014]

Rumor has it that Greg Kampe was the one who posted his bail lol. This guy screams Oakland transfer candidate.
Side Note: this guy is a former Illinois State player.

https://twitter.com/GoodmanHoops/status/1055924263159513089