Valpo @ Chicago St. 11-16-22 7pm CST

[SanityLost17]

A plausible scenario if this team continues to significantly underperform: A negotiated mid-season resignation and buyout that allows (1) Coach Lottich to have some flexibility and consider his options for the next year and a half, and (2) the MBB to start planning its future.

I don't know if Coach Gore is a viable contender to become head coach, but if so, this would be a great trial run.

Recall that President Padilla has a background in law, including University general counsel, so such negotiations are hardly new to him.

"Coach Gore is a viable contender" 

I know everyone loves Gore as he is a holdout from the Bryce and Homer era.   But I don't know why he gets a pass on team success/failure?    He has a lot of coaching power within the program as the top assistant, top recruiter, most experience, etc.   If we see Lottich as a failure I think we also have to see Gore as a failure, do we not?   

If things don't turn around by the end of the season it is probably time for Lottich to go, but that means its time for Gore to go too.     

[David81]

A plausible scenario if this team continues to significantly underperform: A negotiated mid-season resignation and buyout that allows (1) Coach Lottich to have some flexibility and consider his options for the next year and a half, and (2) the MBB to start planning its future.

I don't know if Coach Gore is a viable contender to become head coach, but if so, this would be a great trial run.

Recall that President Padilla has a background in law, including University general counsel, so such negotiations are hardly new to him.

"Coach Gore is a viable contender" 

I know everyone loves Gore as he is a holdout from the Bryce and Homer era.   But I don't know why he gets a pass on team success/failure?    He has a lot of coaching power within the program as the top assistant, top recruiter, most experience, etc.   If we see Lottich as a failure I think we also have to see Gore as a failure, do we not?   

If things don't turn around by the end of the season it is probably time for Lottich to go, but that means its time for Gore to go too.     

That's why I said "if Coach Gore is a viable contender...." I'm happy to defer to others with a closer eye on this team. Nowhere did I suggest a "free pass" for anyone.

That said, if there's a coaching change in mid-season, from discussions here it appears that Coach Gore would be the most likely interim, regardless of whether he's considered for the permanent job.

[crusadermoe]

As many on this board will attest, I can be a very fierce critic of the university's priorities.  But in the case of Lottich, I really do struggle to gather the pitchforks and rush the Schrage Wing.  He is a Stanford alum, a high character guy, and has solid European experience.  Yes, the W-L record is not what we want. 

You can throw out the 3 game win streak to the MVC finals game in St. Louis in March 2020 if you want.  But why would you?  The next year faced the deflating CoVID crap.

You can disregard the home win over Western Michigan just a week ago. But why would you?  As noted, just 1500 showed up for the first home game of the year. Even weekenders could have come back into town on a late Sunday afternoon. Students have no-showed even for good games in our good years. The NIT crowds were an aberration. Will they flock back to a team led by Gore or by a new coach in a re-building. I think the kids are just screen-addicted now and they like the live games they can take or leave moment to moment while they surf dumb stuff.

I just about gagged up my dinner when I saw the Chicago State score.  But one game, however, embarrassing, is not a season.  Homer lost to CSU in the conference tournament played in KC in 2003.  We had a 7-footer and an Oppland. 

[SanityLost17]

A plausible scenario if this team continues to significantly underperform: A negotiated mid-season resignation and buyout that allows (1) Coach Lottich to have some flexibility and consider his options for the next year and a half, and (2) the MBB to start planning its future.

I don't know if Coach Gore is a viable contender to become head coach, but if so, this would be a great trial run.

Recall that President Padilla has a background in law, including University general counsel, so such negotiations are hardly new to him.

"Coach Gore is a viable contender" 

I know everyone loves Gore as he is a holdout from the Bryce and Homer era.   But I don't know why he gets a pass on team success/failure?    He has a lot of coaching power within the program as the top assistant, top recruiter, most experience, etc.   If we see Lottich as a failure I think we also have to see Gore as a failure, do we not?   

If things don't turn around by the end of the season it is probably time for Lottich to go, but that means its time for Gore to go too.   

Sorry.  I miss read your message.     But in general I don't see a lot of Gore criticism.   If most have decided against Lottich, my point stands that we must decide against Gore as well.    If a change is made it needs to be a whole sale change.   

I'm against mid-season changes.    Lottich has until the end of the year but I need to see something.     

[justducky]

I should be getting excited about this loss but I can't. I guess that shows just how far my expectations have fallen. All else being equal any sign of snow, icy roads or cold weather will keep me home and safely distanced from the ARC.

Maybe some day that can change?

[usc4valpo]

we need money, buy-in from leadership and engagement from all stakeholders to make it happen. It will take more than a coaching change to enable success.

[FWalum]

I am going to preface this by saying, and I know this may be a shock to some of you, that something is wrong with the program, but lets be factual. Matt's first year he did a masterful job of coaching despite some real adversity. Some even argued that it was better than Bryce (much better use of timeouts etc.). Yes, these were Bryce's recruits, but coaching did not appear to be a problem. Carter lost his bid for eligibility weeks before the start of the season, Jubril played only 9 games and yet the team was 23-6 before Alec went down with the stress fracture. The guy was 32-9 coaching in his first 41 games and that included 3 loses with Alec Peters sitting on the bench. Bryce was 27-14 in his first 41 games with what I think is pretty comparable talent. Bryce didn't really kill it that next year after Broekhoff and Van Wijk left, but overall he certainly had more success getting, maintaining, and motivating talent.

Since the Burton debacle Matt has had problems with consistency, whether it be the roster (injuries or transfers), scoring droughts, defensive intensity and general moral. Even with these problems I have no doubt that the "19-20" team could have been 24-9 if Fazekas had been healthy all year, skipped the MVC tournament play-in game, and won the tournament... and if ifs and buts were candy and nuts we'd all have a successful season.

The Covid years certainly didn't help, but still doesn't completely explain all of this inconsistency, other coaches did a better job. I had hoped that Vijay Blackmon would solve the constant injury issues, but once again we have guys out or playing limited minutes early in the season.

He still wants to run the 5 out and 4 out action offenses which I don't particularly like (even though everyone is running them). I don't know if we have really had the shooters other than Fazekas to  run this chuck it up offense. I think it is stupid to pass the ball to the trailing 5 to initiate the offense. Palm has turned it over at least once because of this stupid way to start the offenses motion, he is not the only one in all the past years to have problems. In my opinion giving the ball to a 5 24' from the basket is rarely a good idea unless he can truly stretch the offense like Jacob Ognacevic (what happened to him and why isn't he here? Inquiring minds want to know).

But he is really not doing anything terrible or unusual, the teams have flashes that make you hope for the best. I love the Christian integrity that permeates the program and because of that I will wait to call for a change until this season plays out. I honestly see no real reason why this team can't be successful so the onus is squarely on Matt's shoulders.

[elephtheria47]

For the people saying its early in the season and only one game, as we sit here today, what needs to happen the remainder of this season to retain Lottich? Is that attainable? If not, why keep paying the highest paid employee of the university just to can him at the end of the season? Granted there very well may be deadlines/dates/performances in the contract related to buyouts, but other than that...? Attendance is down. Fandom is down. Expectations are low.  I used to attend 5-10 games a season. I dont even think about making the 5 min drive to campus for a single game now. 

[valpopal]

For the people saying its early in the season and only one game....

[usc4valpo]

I understand Valpo won't make a change until the end of the season. Matt is a great guy, loaded with inegrity. But this program in several perspectives is in a downturn, and I am not sure there is commitment to improve the situation. Athletically, the university wants to commit to mediocrity. Not Padilla, not Small, but the university in general. It sad to see where the program is going.

[vu72]

I understand Valpo won't make a change until the end of the season. Matt is a great guy, loaded with inegrity. But this program in several perspectives is in a downturn, and I am not sure there is commitment to improve the situation. Athletically, the university wants to commit to mediocrity. Not Padilla, not Small, but the university in general. It sad to see where the program is going.

[/b]

Not sure where you are seeing or reading this.  As is the case with universities across the nation, Valpo has struggled financially mainly do to Covid.  However, in the one plus years that Padilla has been in charge, the Board has UNANAMOUSLY approved a plan which includes a new/not refurbished, basketball arena.  I doubt they would make that commitment planning on having a coach mired in mediocrity. We'll just have to see... 

[vu84v2]

First, the university has had financial struggles due to COVID and the declining population of students graduating from high school (due to lower birth rates years ago).

While the board unanimously approved a plan for a new basketball arena, a plan is nearly useless if it is not funded or if there is not a sincere effort to raise substantial funds. There may be a sincere effort to raise funds for a new arena, but I have some idea of what is going on at Valpo and I am not aware of any sincere effort.

With that said, Valpo is not USC or Texas or ______ with seemingly infinite resources available...and it probably never will be. Valpo can't just decide to throw money at everything - not only a basketball arena, but a new business building, new nursing building, etc., etc. It has to be judicious. Now Valpo is facing a scenario of needing to dismiss a coach (and yes, I do hope that there is some amazing turnaround and, from what I know, feel that Matt Lottich is a great person - I just don't see that turnaround happening). It is likely that Valpo will need to write a six figure check for severance and will need to pay a new coach as much as Matt Lottich makes now. There will be other initiatives, etc. that will end up paying for that. I wish that weren't true, but it would be financially irresponsible otherwise.

The other option that will be considered, whether people here like it or not, is that the cost of releasing a coach is too high and that they'll try really hard to find ways to improve during Matt Lottich's tenure. While again, I hope that I am wrong, if that option is pursued I think the program will range between poor and mediocre for the foreseeable future.

[usc4valpo]

72 - when do they plan to build this new arena? I have not heard anything regarding this.

[vu72]

72 - when do they plan to build this new arena? I have not heard anything regarding this.

The question was in the resolve of the University.  Making a public statement announcement says a lot.  As for when, it has been posted that President Padilla has already been out meeting with large donors.

[AB]

Add insult to injury Kent State 88- 59 over Chicago State. CSU 28 turnovers.

[vu84v2]

72 - when do they plan to build this new arena? I have not heard anything regarding this.

The question was in the resolve of the University.  Making a public statement announcement says a lot.  As for when, it has been posted that President Padilla has already been out meeting with large donors.

I may have missed something, but I have never seen an announcement. If it is embedded, in some way, in the "strategic plan" - there are several initiatives in that plan that will never happen. And the term "out meeting with donors" can be an extensive and focused effort or mentioning it among many initiatives in which Valpo seeks funds from donors. I would like to be wrong, but I have not seen any meaningful effort.

[valporun]

At this point, if Lottich was fired, I think Matt Bowen becomes the interim head coach, as he was a previous head coach at the college ranks. Luke Gore has been a 20+ year assistant coach from the graduate ranks to his current position at Valpo. To go 20+ years over 4 head coaches says something about his staying power as an assistant, and maybe that's where he feels most comfortable/effective as a coach. Once Lottich is let go, the rest of the coaching staff will also be gone. There is nothing about this coaching staff that I would keep as the future of the program. Even if it means we have to go 5-6 more years of rebuilding to get a new Valpo Basketball map drawn.

[vufan75]

72 - when do they plan to build this new arena? I have not heard anything regarding this.

The question was in the resolve of the University.  Making a public statement announcement says a lot.  As for when, it has been posted that President Padilla has already been out meeting with large donors.

I may have missed something, but I have never seen an announcement. If it is embedded, in some way, in the "strategic plan" - there are several initiatives in that plan that will never happen. And the term "out meeting with donors" can be an extensive and focused effort or mentioning it among many initiatives in which Valpo seeks funds from donors. I would like to be wrong, but I have not seen any meaningful effort.

I believe if I recall correctly on Paul Owen's first podcast this year, where President Padilla was a guest, the discussion was had about renovating the ARC vs building a new arena. President Padilla prefers a new arena, as well as another turf field. He mentioned a firm from Columbus, Ohio was working on designs at various costs to show what can be done at each cost level. This firm he said had designed arenas and stadiums around the country. That podcast interview by Paul and President Padilla left me hopeful we might progress beyond just talking about it.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[4throwfan]

I would love to see trend lines across all measures of team performance (WL%, conf. W/L%, Athlete GPA, national rankings (RPI, KenPom, etc.), attendance, etc.).  Some of those trend lines may be up or down, but so would be the national average (e.g., attendance, number of transfers, etc.).  In those cases, it might be informative to compare to the national average as a baseline.

After we have all of the trend lines, and compared with relative base lines, then determine whether the program over Lottich's tenure is trending in the right direction.  I tend to think that it's not, but haven't seen any comprehensive study.  (No reason for me to see it, as I'm nobody important.).  My simple way of doing that is to do a linear extrapolation.

If the trends are mostly good, then no reason to change.  If not good, then there should be a change.  Frankly, I don't see a reason to wait.  Budget issues would get worse with waiting longer.  Bad news does not age well when trend lines point down.  The only argument for not making a change in case of poor trending would be that the trends are acceptable to the University board because it no longer values MBB the way that it was valued in the past.

Those trends, if evaluated correctly, would account for things such as one bad loss and COVID.

If these studies have been collected and presented, apologies for missing.

[historyman]

This program is not in the same place. We are in year 7 of Matt Lottich's tenure and we can honestly say the program is in a decidedly worse place than it was when he was hired. We used to beat MVC teams regularly. Now we're lucky to stay out of the bottom 4 against them. Better league or not, that is a stinging indictment of Lottich as a coach and these facts tell me everything I need to know. They all point in one direction: a change of leadership is sorely needed and I'm not sure if there is anything this team can do over the course of the rest of the year to change my position on that.

I know there are many that have stated virtually the same thing but how many other MVC teams would have fired Lottich by now if he had produced the same results at their school as he has done at Valpo in 6 years? Just a reminder that many coaches are gone from the MVC ranks (Lansing at IN State, Muller at IL State, Lickliter at Evansville, etc.)


Since beating Valpo, Chicago State has lost 3 straight games--Kent State 88-59, Marshall 82-70 & Cleveland State 77-63. Granted they were all on the road but all were double digit losses.

[chgovalpofan]

IMO - Any other MVC teams would have fired him by now.  I understand why Valpo hasn't yet, but I will be very disappointed if there isn't a change at the end of year.  We need new blood, an actual system, and someone we can believe in.
Valpo deserves better. 

[usc4valpo]

I understand that USC regarding athletics is at a different level than Valpo. In 2021 USC football fired Helton after the second game, knowing that Helton was not the right dude for the job and assuring that a change was required. This was during the season and made a strong statement that change  will happen.

If Matt Lottich is not the right coach and the higher ups are certain of that, change should be made now. You are doing any favors to anyone. If you keep it status quo, you leave uncertainly for the future, and if Valpo wins a few games or go on a short streak, false hope results leading to the same mediocre situation.

[chgovalpofan]

The reason Valpo can't fire Matt now is money.  They have to pay him regardless so they might as well can see what he can do.  He knows his job is on the line.  That should be more motivation to try and get this right, or who else will hire him?  Regardless if the season turns around or not, we have to try something different.

[usc4valpo]

chgo - so my guess is that the administration still want to give him a chance to succeed and does not want to pull the trigger. If they did pull the trigger, how much money would Valpo have to pay out? Is it the rest of the season? Several years?

[FWalum]

chgo - so my guess is that the administration still want to give him a chance to succeed and does not want to pull the trigger. If they did pull the trigger, how much money would Valpo have to pay out? Is it the rest of the season? Several years?

Probably not a lot of people know the specifics of his contract let alone the buyout clause. I would be shocked if it wasn't at least one years salary, but it is probably more with some potential negotiation points.
Check out this website Basketball coaches salary and buyout database there are several MVC coaches listed in the database. Buyouts vary greatly between coach's contracts.