HL tourney Pomeroy probabilities???

[oklahomamick]

This comes from the Butler blog and thought I would share. 

Cumulative Pomeroy probabilities of each team advancing past the indicated round:


Horizon Log5      rd1   rd2   rd3   rd4
Valparaiso      100.0%   100.0%   62.4%   32.1%
Cleveland St.      100.0%   100.0%   70.0%   44.1%
Detroit         89.8%   53.3%   18.1%   8.7%
Wisconsin Milwaukee   90.7%   47.8%   18.5%   5.8%
Butler         82.0%   44.6%   17.7%   5.7%
Youngstown St.      65.9%   29.8%   8.0%   2.4%
Wisconsin Green Bay   34.1%   14.7%   3.7%   1.0%
Wright St.      18.0%   5.9%   1.2%   0.2%
Illinois Chicago                9.3%   1.6%   0.2%   0.0%
Loyola Chicago      10.2%   2.3%   0.2%   0.0% 

[valpotx]

Solely based on RPI/few other factors, doesn't take into account the venue being at the ARC, I believe.

[valpopal]

Solely based on RPI/few other factors, doesn't take into account the venue being at the ARC, I believe.

Unfortunately, I don't think the home court will be as much of an advantage as it might be if the students were not on spring break.

[jack]

Also doesn't take into account matchup issues, if there's an upset early on. it'll be interesting to see how it shakes out though.

[crusaderjoe]

Solely based on RPI/few other factors, doesn't take into account the venue being at the ARC, I believe.

Unfortunately, I don't think the home court will be as much of an advantage as it might be if the students were not on spring break.

IIRC, the student sections are flip-flopped for the tournament games, right?  So unless VU puts in substantial bleachers on the concession side, VU's students will be relegated to those little metal bleachers.  Anyone know if we are going to have larger portables stands in place for the tournament? Maybe get the capacity up to at least 5,700?

[historyman]

IIRC, the student sections are flip-flopped for the tournament games, right?

Where did you get that info?

[crusaderjoe]

IIRC, the student sections are flip-flopped for the tournament games, right?

Where did you get that info?

Maybe I'm losing it, but I could have sworn that the visiting team's student section was placed where VU students normally sat when we hosted a quarterfinal game. 

[Valpo10]

Solely based on RPI/few other factors, doesn't take into account the venue being at the ARC, I believe.

Unfortunately, I don't think the home court will be as much of an advantage as it might be if the students were not on spring break.

IIRC, the student sections are flip-flopped for the tournament games, right?  So unless VU puts in substantial bleachers on the concession side, VU's students will be relegated to those little metal bleachers.  Anyone know if we are going to have larger portables stands in place for the tournament? Maybe get the capacity up to at least 5,700?

What the 5 students that will be there.  They say dorms will be open for the tournament, but that's only a certain few (typical residential housing).  If you aren't in those dorms you have to go through all the paperwork and crap.  Typical student will just go home.

[valpo04]

IIRC, the student sections are flip-flopped for the tournament games, right?

Where did you get that info?

Maybe I'm losing it, but I could have sworn that the visiting team's student section was placed where VU students normally sat when we hosted a quarterfinal game.

http://www.sportsad.ohio.edu/news/index.html?article_id=302

LeCrone, who is used to criticism coming his way about the Horizon League tournament, also was quick to point out that the league's main responsibility is to prepare teams for success in the postseason. That's why first round Horizon League tournament games are treated like neutral-site contests, even though they are held at locations like the Athletics-Recreation Center.

During last Tuesday's 89-82 loss to Detroit, the Valparaiso student section was relegated to make-shift bleachers near the concession stand, while the Titan faithful were able to invade the bleachers normally reserved for the VU students. Both schools had their bands and cheerleaders present and the Valparaiso public address announcer was not allowed to showcase any positive emotion for the Crusaders unless he did the same for Detroit.

The student sections have to be at the same end as that team's bench.

[crusaderjoe]

IIRC, the student sections are flip-flopped for the tournament games, right?

Where did you get that info?

Maybe I'm losing it, but I could have sworn that the visiting team's student section was placed where VU students normally sat when we hosted a quarterfinal game.

http://www.sportsad.ohio.edu/news/index.html?article_id=302

LeCrone, who is used to criticism coming his way about the Horizon League tournament, also was quick to point out that the league's main responsibility is to prepare teams for success in the postseason. That's why first round Horizon League tournament games are treated like neutral-site contests, even though they are held at locations like the Athletics-Recreation Center.

During last Tuesday's 89-82 loss to Detroit, the Valparaiso student section was relegated to make-shift bleachers near the concession stand, while the Titan faithful were able to invade the bleachers normally reserved for the VU students. Both schools had their bands and cheerleaders present and the Valparaiso public address announcer was not allowed to showcase any positive emotion for the Crusaders unless he did the same for Detroit.

The student sections have to be at the same end as that team's bench.

Thanks--and sorry, I mistakenly wrote quarterfinal, but I meant first round.  Do you know if this requirement is in place for the semis and championship?

[bbtds]

Well, I guess it's up to the old fuddy duddies. I hope some of the older Valpo fans can get on their feet and make some noise!!!!     

[valporun]

The student sections are on the same side as their respective team. Even with Valpo  being the #1 seed, the student section with be in front of the concession stand, and main entrance area, and will most likely be smaller because of the fire code requirements for safe fan entry/exit. The only other thing that could change that is if the bleachers behind the Valpo bench are reserved for students?

[valpopal]

The student sections are on the same side as their respective team. Even with Valpo  being the #1 seed, the student section with be in front of the concession stand, and main entrance area, and will most likely be smaller because of the fire code requirements for safe fan entry/exit. The only other thing that could change that is if the bleachers behind the Valpo bench are reserved for students?

Could the Valpo team choose to switch benches and sit on the other side of the scorer's table during the tournament?

[valporun]

I believe that is left up to the conference to decide which bench the team sits on?

[agibson]

Also doesn't take into account matchup issues, if there's an upset early on. it'll be interesting to see how it shakes out though.

Pomeroy's a pretty mathematical guy.  I'm sure it's the full set of possible tournaments.  So, I bet that every matchup is included, no matter how unlikely the upset, and weighted according to it's relative probability.

[agibson]

Solely based on RPI/few other factors, doesn't take into account the venue being at the ARC, I believe.

It's Pomeroy.  So, he's using his own "pythagorean" rating system.  I gather that it's a lot more complicated than the RPI, but I don't know if he has a good description posted.

The blog post with the tourney predictions is at
http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/log_5_season_winning_is_everything/

He knows the home and away sites, and I'm sure it's in his computation.

What's fueling the low Valpo win percentage his his pythagorean rating.  Go to http://kenpom.com/ for the summary, at least.

76 CSU
128 Butler
133 Milwaukee
135 Detroit
145 Valpo
168 YSU
etc.

He doesn't rate Valpo very highly in the first place, so, even with our advantages (e.g. hosting the semifinals, and the finals if we play in it) we're not his favorite for the tourney.

It is interesting to me that he makes the results of the quarter-finals pretty close to toss-ups.  He's probably right there.

One factor I'm less sure of: does Pomeroy include days of rest between games?  This might, indeed, be forgotten...

Pomeroy's commentary on the Horizon League tournament is

Valpo was the extremely unlikely regular-season champ, but they're not the favorite despite earning home games for the duration of the event. Somehow Cleveland State has the best chances, even while enduring a five-game losing streak late in the season. Beloved Butler finished in a three-way tie for third but ended up on the wrong end of the tiebreaker, giving them a much more losable game in the first round against Wright State, inhibiting their shot at getting back to the NCAA tournament.

[agibson]

Having swept, what, three of the teams he ranks ahead of us, I'm not sure I agree with his conclusion.  If, indeed, we're the fifth best team, then, OK, the conference results were _very_ surprising.

But, I don't think I buy it.  Nor do I buy the "it's hard to beat the same team three times" aphorism that floats around _our_ site sometimes.

Is Valpo vulnerable?  Yes.

Do we have a better than 1/3 shot of winning the tournament?  I suspect we do.

[historyman]

Is Ken Pomeroy the guy who lives in Merrillville? Or is that another guy with a rating website?

[agibson]

Is there somebody local?

Pomeroy's apparently a meteorologist in SLC.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ken_Pomeroy

[FWalum]

Having swept, what, three of the teams he ranks ahead of us, I'm not sure I agree with his conclusion.  If, indeed, we're the fifth best team, then, OK, the conference results were _very_ surprising.

But, I don't think I buy it.  Nor do I buy the "it's hard to beat the same team three times" aphorism that floats around _our_ site sometimes.

Is Valpo vulnerable?  Yes.

Do we have a better than 1/3 shot of winning the tournament?  I suspect we do.

Jeff Sagarin lives in Bloomington, is that who you are thinking about?

[zvillehaze]

Jerry Palm.  Heard him on local radio today and he indicated he was at the Valpo-Butler game.  Here's his bio:

http://www.cbssports.com/columns/writers/palm/bio

[historyman]

Jerry Palm.  Heard him on local radio today and he indicated he was at the Valpo-Butler game.  Here's his bio:

http://www.cbssports.com/columns/writers/palm/bio

Yes, that is him. Jerry Palm.

Palm lives in Northwest Indiana, which is next to Chicago, governed by Indianapolis, and ignored by both.

You gotta love that last comment.

[Valpo2010]

Palm lives in Northwest Indiana, which is next to Chicago, governed by Indianapolis, and ignored by both.

+1

[justducky]

Since RLH is no longer around to condemn the double bye I guess its up to me to stick my neck out and condemn it for him. Now according to the Pomeroy Probabilities Valpo and CSU together have a 76.2% chance of grabbing the title. That leaves the field with a whopping 23.8% chance of success. This is I believe a little lower than last year but still consistent with the over 75% probability of 1 of the top 2 teams winning the tournament. The bottom 4 of GB WSU UIC and Loyola have a cumulative 1.2% chance of advancing to the big dance and most of that big number is assigned to GB.

So who should be squealing like a stuck hog this year? If you guessed Detroit you are correct. Without the double bye they have been assigned an 8.7% chance of success which is still almost a full 3% higher than either Butler or UWM. Whatever you do in this league you better be a to do it early because late season success just don't cut it. Too bad that they won 6 out of their last 7 and 9 out of their last 11 because CSU's body of work has earned them the 2 seed even though they are limping  in haveing won only 2 of their last 7. So obviously we should treat them as if they were still the healthy confident team of January and not the gimpy beaten into submission team of February. Likewise since Detroit wasn't worth crap in December and early January the wisdom of our double bye system dictates that they still aren't. So how come Pomeroy has CSU with a 5 times greater chance of tournament success than Detroit and yet most of us are sitting here 3 times more worried about Detroit than we are about a healthy CSU?

As much as I love VU, there is a part of me that would like to see the underdog Titans get on a roll, make some shots, get some bounces and maybe create the first 16vs 1 upset. But no, the double bye has already dictated their fate.

[sectionee]

So we shouldn't reward the teams that were consistent throughout the entire year and won their way to the top two slots?  I like the top teams being rewarded, makes the regular season matter.  It would be nice to see maybe the 3 and 4 get a single bye somehow.