The Valparaiso Beacons Fan Zone Forum

Horizon League Team Previews
Postby Commissioner » Fri Sep 05, 2014 11:35 am

Like last year, over the next 8 weeks I'll be doing previews of the Horizon League teams as time and inclination allow. Here's the first one, for Cleveland State:


Cleveland State:
2014: 12-4 Horizon (2nd); 21-12 overall (CIT)

After a sluggish start, CSU won 10 of its last 11 regular season games last year before being upset by Wright State in the conference tournament and then losing to Ohio U. by two points in the CIT. That was a good season, but the Vikings were closer to a truly big year than most noticed, as they lost several close games. (The Vikes were 1-4 in games decided by 3 points or less, and 3-6 in games decided by two possessions or less). With only senior Jon Harris (10.2 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 53% FG) being lost to graduation, CSU looked like a pretty easy pick to win the Horizon in 2015—at least back in April.

Then came the surprising mid-summer news that junior guard Bryn Forbes, the team's leading scorer (15.6 ppg, .424 3P%) and a second team all-conference selection, was transferring to Michigan State. Less noticed is the loss of 6-4 senior guard Sebastian Douglas (8.4 ppg, 3.4 rpg, .614 FG%), whose career was ended prematurely this spring by his third knee surgery. With the loss of Forbes and Douglas, Cleveland State is no longer the obvious choice to win the Horizon, but still has to be considered one of the early favorites.

Despite the loss of Forbes and Douglas, the Vikings still have plenty of talent in the backcourt. Senior Charlie Lee, was a 43% three point shooter last year (49% in conference play) and the Horizon's assist leader in 2013. He's joined by Junior Trey Lewis, the team's top returning scorer with Forbes gone, and Creighton transfer Andre Yates. With Forbes and Douglas, I would have expected CSU to play a lot of 3 guard line-ups with those two filling the #3 slot. Without them, that will be tough, both because none of Lee, Lewis or Yates is really a suitable #3, and because the next guard off the bench will be one of a couple Detroit area freshmen, Terrell Hales or Kenny Carpenter. Hales has a reputation as a defensive specialist and Carpenter is a good athlete but it is still the unusual freshman who is ready for major playing time in this league. Thus it's more likely we'll see a Lee/Lewis backcourt with Yates off the bench, which leads us to the question of who will play in the front line.

Even with Forbes' departure, the biggest loss for CSU will probably be Harris, who graduated. Harris was perhaps the key man on the Vikings last year after transferring from Miami, Ohio. He was certainly the steadiest man in the starting lineup. They also lose Devon Long, a competent, 6-7 backup center.

That's not to say the Vikes are void of talent up front. In fact, they've got Anton Grady, who took a while to get in the groove last year after missing the 2013 season with injury. Grady averaged 10.4 points and 6.8 rebounds for the year, but boosted those numbers to 11.8 and 8.5 in conference play. Grady was a member of the Horizon's All-Newcomer team in 2012 and could be ready for a breakout season this year. Joining him will be Marlin Mason, a tough-nosed forward from Detroit whose numbers were down a bit last year. Mason doesn't score a lot but is a good rebounder and defensive player. After those two, CSU has several reasonable possibilities, but none of which are proven. The most likely starter may be Vinny Zollo, whose meandering career has taken him from Western Kentucky (where he started 14 games as a freshman on WKU's 2012 NCAA team) to Furman (where he never actually played) to juco power NW Florida, and now to Cleveland. Zollo only averaged 3.3 points and 11 minutes per game last year with NW Florida, but he was on a team that had five other front court players sign with D-I schools, including Michael Chandler (Oregon) and Tevin Glass (Wichita State). Though Zollo may be the most likely starter, my guess is that coach Gary Waters is hoping it will be 6-9 redshirt soph Aaron Scales, not only because Scales is more of a true center, but also because if he is starting, that means he's getting better. Another possibility is Demonte Flanigan, who saw limited action last year as a freshman. Flanigan had high-major offers (Penn State, Miami of Florida, Wisconsin, DePaul) out of high school, but didn't contribute much in 2013-14. Derek Sloan, a lightly recruited 6-6 redshirt freshman, could see action at the small forward position. It appears that 6-9 Australian forward Jono Janssen will have to sit on the bench this year for academic reasons. If he were to get eligible, he would be an intriguing factor for CSU.

Despite the unexpected loss of Forbes and Douglas, CSU has to be considered a leading contender to take the Horizon title. Waters' teams are always well-coached, and the Vikings shoot well, even with the loss of Forbes. Lee and Lewis give them good scoring punch in the backcourt - even without Forbes the Vikes should be among the top of the league in 3 pointers. Lee has become a much steadier player than he was his first two seasons, and the Vikes won't turn the ball over much. Grady is likely to end the season somewhere between second team all-conference at the low end and conference Player of the Year at the high end. The Vikings need someone else to come through in the front court from the trio of Zollo, Scales and Flanigan, and we'll have to see what Yates can offer. The bench could be a bit thin unless some of the "ifs" come through. But the Vikings will be good and should reach one of the lesser post-season tournaments if they fall short in the Horizon.

Probable Starters:
G - 5-11 Sr. Charlie Lee (9.8 points, 4.1 assists, .433 3P%, .904 FT%, 1.5 steals pg, )
G - 6-2 Jr. Trey Lewis (13.1 points, 3.4 assists, 3.7 rebounds, .369 3P%)
F - 6-6 Sr. Marlin Mason (5.9 points, 4.2 rebounds, .550 FG%)
F - 6-8 Jr. Anton Grady (10.4 points, 6.8 rebounds)
F – 6-8 Jr. Vinny Zollo (transfer; 3.7 ppg, 2.9 rpg for Western Kentucky in 2012)

Other Key Players:
G – 6-0 So. Andre Yates (transfer; 1.1 ppg for Creighton in 2013)
F – 6-7 So. Demonte Flanigan (1.0 ppg; 0.7 rpg)
C – 6-9 So. Aaron Scales (redshirt; 1.5 ppg, 1.2 rpg in 2013)

I think the biggest question mark for the Vikings going into this season is how will the officials call the games. If the refs call it tight as they were instructed to do at the beginning of last year CSU could see a lot of foul trouble and some tough going. But if the zebras reject the emphasis on tight fouls, as they did last season, and call the games loose in the conference season then all will be better for the Vikings.

Re: Horizon League Team Previews
Postby Commissioner » Wed Sep 10, 2014 11:48 pm

Our second preview is the defending champ, Green Bay:

Green Bay
2014: 14-2 Horizon (first); 24-7 overall (NIT)

Led by Horizon League Player of the Year Keifer Sykes and NBA draft pick Alec Brown, and boasting a win over ACC champion Virginia and the narrowest of losses to Wisconsin, Green Bay looked like a mid-major that could make some noise in last season's NCAA. But the Phoenix were upset by Milwaukee in the Horizon League tournament, missed an at-large bid, and finished with a disappointing loss to Belmont in the NIT.

Despite the loss of three-time all-conference selection Brown (15.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, 3.1 blocks), the Phoenix should again be in the hunt for the Horizon title. Other than Brown, the only major losses are guards Vince Garrett (6.3 points), who started 13 games, and Lavin Fulton (2.3 ppg, 11 minutes per game). Fulton had pretty much been displaced in the rotation by freshman Tevin Findley late in the year, and won't be missed, while Garrett was OK but nothing more. Overall, the Phoenix return more rebounding than any other Horizon team, and more scoring than any team except Detroit.

Furthermore, they have the league's best player in point guard Kiefer Sykes, three other returning starters (including probably the league's best defensive player), and a big man who is capable of making Phoenix fans forget Mr. Brown in short order. That deserves some respect in making 2015 predictions.

Sykes, the league's top returning scorer (20.3 ppg), drew rave reviews this summer at the CP3 elite camp, making it possible that Green Bay will have a player drafted for the second year in a row come next June. He'll be joined in the backcourt by junior Carrington Love, who started 14 games last season, averaging 7.9 points and 2.5 assists. Sykes was third and Love 6th in the league in assist/turnover ratio last year, and they were 2nd and 11th in total assists. In other words, Green Bay's backcourt knows how to take care of the ball.

The Phoenix are also fixed at forward, where starters Greg Mays and Jordan Fouse return. The 6-9 Mays averaged 10.3 points and 5.2 rebounds last season. Fouse, a 6-7 junior, is one of my favorite players, a guy who does a bit of everything. Last season he was 4th in the conference in rebounding, 10th in assists, 11th in field goal percentage, 3rd in steals, 4th in blocked shots, and made the Conference all-defensive team. Fouse hasn't scored much at Green Bay (6.5 ppg last year, 6.8 ppg as a freshman), but he hasn't been asked too. Don't be surprised to see his scoring average pick up this year.

That leaves the big question: who replaces Brown. The Phoenix have two candidates. A lot of folks are high on 6-11 Nigerian juco Henry Uwadiae. Uwadiae signed with Wichita State out of high school but failed to qualify academically. He then went to Kirkwood CC, but was academically ineligible in 2013. Without having played a JC game, he signed with Marshall for the class of 2014, but was released after a coaching change last spring. But while a lot of folks are high on Uwadiae's potential, he averaged less than 2 points and 2 rebounds last year at Kirkwood. So I'm a bit skeptical.

Rather, I look to 6-8 soph Kenneth Lowe, who as Brown's understudy averaged 4.2 points and 3.5 rebounds per game, while finishing 10th in the Horizon in blocks, in 16 minutes per game. Lowe lacks Brown's ability to step outside and knock down a three, but he's tougher inside. I suspect he'll soon make Phoenix fans forget about Brown, who tended to disappear in big games (2 points, 1 rebound, fouled out vs. Wisconsin; 9 points, 1 rebound vs. Virginia; 9 points, 4 rebounds, 3-14 shooting in Horizon tournament loss to Milwaukee; 9 points, 3-10 shooting in NIT loss to Belmont).

Green Bay has good depth, too. In addition to whomever doesn't start from Lowe and Uwadiae, up front they've got Alfonso McKinney, an Eastern Illinois transfer who averaged over 10 points and 7 rebounds as a sophomore while finishing second in the Ohio Valley Conference in shooting percentage. The 6-8 McKinney missed most of last season with injuries, but over the last 5 games averaged 6.8 points and 3.2 rebounds.

In the backcourt, sophomore Tevin Findley gradually forced veteran Lamin Fulton out of the rotation last year. Findley played in just 13 of Green Bay's first 19 games, never more than 11 minutes (against NAIA St. Francis, Ill.). But over the season's final 12 games Findley averaged over 11 minutes per game. He's a good defensive player. Also look for more from sophomore Turner Botz, who will be called on to provide Green Bay with 3 point shooting. Green Bay also has freshman Kahlil Small, an all-stater from Illinois, but a forward trapped in a guard's body. Botz and Findley are big guards who can shoot over the opposition and smother smaller guards in the lane on defense.

The only obvious weakness on this team is lack of three point punch. Brown was the team's leading 3 point scorer last year. Love and Sykes will both chuck it up but Love hit just 31.5% and Sykes 30.9%. Sykes did hit over 40% from three as a soph, however, and Botz should give them a good 3 point option off the bench.

Scoring could be an issue for this club, but probably won't be as Love, Findley, Botz, Lowe, McKinney and even Fouse are all guys who can pick it up a notch. Last year I picked Green Bay to win the conference, and so long as Sykes is healthy, they're my pick again.

Probable Starters
G – 6-0 senior Kiefer Sykes (20.3 points, 4.9 assists, 4.4 rebounds)
G - 6-1 junior Carrington Love (7.9 ppg, 2.5 apg)
F - 6-9 senior Greg Mays (10.3 points, 5.2 rebounds, .586 FG%)
F - 6-9 junior Jordan Fouse (6.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.9 blocks)
C - 6-8 sophomore Kenneth Lowe (4.2 points, 3.5 rebounds, 58% FG in 16 minutes per game).

Other Key Players
F- 6-8 Alfonso McKinney (4.1 ppg, 2.5 rpg)
C- 6-11 Henry Uwadiae (juco transfer)
G – 6-4 Tevin Findley (2 ppg)
G – 6-7 Turner Botz (1.6 ppg)

Our third preview: the Illinois-Chicago Flames.

UIC
2014: 1-15 Horizon (9th); 6-25 overall.

Prognosticating is a rough business.

In the fall of 2012, the Horizon League poll of the League's coaches, media and sports information directors picked Wright State to finish last. The Raiders proceeded to start the season 13-4, eventually finished third in the league in the regular season, knocked off favored Detroit in the conference tournament semi-finals, and received a bid to the post-season CBI tournament, where they defeated Tulsa and Richmond before losing in the semi-finals.

In the fall of 2013, the Horizon League poll was pretty much unanimous in picking Milwaukee to finish last, but the Panthers broke out to a 9-2 start, weathered a late-season slump that saw them lose 7 of 10, and then stunned Valparaiso, Wright State, and regular season champion Green Bay to win the conference tournament and an NCAA bid.

So UIC fans can find some hope in the probability that every major preseason poll is going to place them last in the Horizon this season. That, as they say, is why they play the games. Still, Coach Howard Moore has his work cut out for him.

For one thing, he's got to change what must be the Flames basic mindset after last year's flameout. Last year's Flames were a true enigma – it is hard to remember a team that blew so many leads or that found so many different ways to lose winnable games. On their way to a 6-25 record (their worst since moving to Division I in 1981), the Flames:

1.   Led Drake by 5 at the half but lost in their season opener. Hayden Humes missed a layup at the buzzer that would have forced OT. (Nov. 9)
2.   Battled back from a 12-0 deficit to tie SMU in the second half. They were down just 2 with 8 minutes to play but faded and lost by 8. (Dec. 4)
3.   Led Loyola by as many as 8 points, and by 3 at halftime, but lost. Kelsey Barlow missed a 3 pointer to tie at the buzzer. (Dec. 7)
4.   Led Cal-Riverside with 9 seconds to play but lost. (Dec. 20).
5.   Led Illinois by 10 at halftime but were outscored 40-16 in the second half (Dec. 28).
6.   Led Valparaiso by 8 at halftime but lost by 15 (Jan. 2).
7.   Led Youngstown State until a 3 pointer by Kamren Belin at the halftime buzzer, eventually lost by 13. (Jan. 7)
8.   Led most of the game against Wright State, and by 4 points with 3:30 to play, but didn't score again and lost by 5 (Jan. 12)
9.   Led Milwaukee by 13 at the half before losing by 4 (Jan. 16)
10.   Led Green Bay by 7 with under seven minutes to play, and were still up 3 with 4:20 to play, but were outscored 9-1 down the stretch. (Jan. 19)
11.   Led Oakland by as much as 12 in the second half but were outscored 11-5 in the final 90 seconds and lost by 1 on a Duke Mondy three pointer at the buzzer. (Jan. 25)
12.   Led Detroit with under 12 minutes to play but lost by six. (Jan. 29)
13.   Led Youngstown by 8 at the half and for the game's first 36 minutes, but went scoreless for 3:20 starting at the 3:45 mark of the game and lost by 3. (Feb. 15).
14.   Led Detroit by as many as nine in the first half. Went scoreless for over 3 minutes starting with 4:45 to play and was outscored 8-2 as in the last five minutes as Detroit won by six. (Feb. 18)
15.   Led at halftime and were up with 7:30 to play but were outscored 19-9 down the stretch and fell to Wright State. (Mar. 1)

After that horrible season, things don't look a lot brighter for UIC, which loses two of its top three in scoring and rebounding and its assist leader. Those departures are Kelsey Barlow (1st on the team in scoring at 14.8 points, 3rd at 5.0 rebounds, 1st at 3.9 apg) and Jordan Harks (3rd in scoring at 8.5, 1st in rebounds 5.6). Also leaving is starting forward Hayden Humes (7.0 ppg, 3.5 rpg). And the transfer of 6-5 wing Pat Birt (6.3 ppg, .387 3P%), a member of the Conference All-Freshman team, was an added, unexpected blow. The Flames are last in the league in percentage of returning rebounding, and 7th in returning scoring.

So Moore has to replace a lot, and he'll have to do it with a ramshackle recruiting class that includes 4 jucos and transfers joining the team, plus two true freshmen and injury redshirt freshman Lance Whitaker. In other words, 7 guys haven't played or practiced much together. The Flames got in five games on an August trip to Canada, which should help them gel, but after last season's experience Coach Moore has to be concerned that they blew leads in the first two games to lose to Canadian powers Ottawa and Carleton.

UIC's big problem last year was lack of consistent scoring after Kelsey Barlow. Three-year starter Marc Brown was the #2 scorer on last year's team at 11.3 ppg, but he was inconsistent. After scoring 20 or more points in UIC's first three games of the season, he hit that mark just once more all season (24 against Detroit on January 29), and reached double figures in just 5 of UIC's final 13 games. Look for Brown, a 6-4 guard, to play on the wing in a three guard lineup.

The likely starting back court will be Gabe Snider at the two and Jay Harris at the point. Snider, a 6-3 junior, averaged just 3.6 ppg last season, but he hit 43% of his 51 three point attempts. He led UIC in scoring on its Canada trip, with an average of 14.4 ppg, including 28 against Ottawa, one of the best teams on the tour.

Harris is a graduate transfer from Wagner, where he averaged 10.3 points and 2.8 assists last year. If his name sounds vaguely familiar to Horizon fans, it's because Harris played his first two seasons at Valparaiso, playing in all 35 games as a freshman and averaging nine points a game off the bench as a sophomore in 2012. He shot 38% from behind the arc last year. Harris did not make the trip to Canada, and Snider probably won a starting job with his performance on the trip, but Harris will get major PT and could start at the #2 if Snider stumbles, or more likely at the point. However, there is competition for the starting point guard position too, in the form of senior Jay Parker and juco transfer D'Juan Miller. Parker doesn't score (3.7 ppg last season), but he averaged 2.7 assists in just 18 minutes per game last season, and had a 10-assist game in Canada. Parker is erratic, however, and turns it over a bit too often. In Canada, he split the time at point with the 5-8 Miller, who averaged over 5 assists per game on the trip. Not to be mean or monger in rumors, but Harris was suspended from Wagner after 21 games last year for a violation of school rules (not basketball related). However, there's no other reason to think he'll be a problem for Coach Moore.

Sophomore Markese McGuire and juco transfer Paris Burns are other back court options – Moore has been collecting guards like Al Capone collected cops.

Up front the rebounding burden will fall on 6-8 junior Jake Wiegand, who averaged 9.6 rebounds in Canada. He'll probably be joined by 6-5 senior Ahman Fells in the starting lineup, but if Moore wants more size, he's likely to look to 6-9, 240 lb. juco transfer Jason McClellan. UIC fans have high hopes for 6-9 freshman Tai Odiase, but he played just enough in Canada to demonstrate that he's not yet ready. Further, Odiase is a better defensive player than scorer, and until proven otherwise, this team needs points, even with the addition of Harris and Snider's potential emergence. Still, they'll give Odiase every chance.

Also likely to see significant action this season is 6-4 injury redshirt freshman Lance Whitaker, who was averaging over 18 minutes per game in three games when he went down last season.

UIC has wisely scheduled a rather weak non-con schedule—they've got 2 non-DI teams scheduled and 8 teams with RPIs of 200 or above last year. So they should be able to win a few early, gain confidence and develop some chemistry. That's the same formula that seemed to work for Milwaukee and Wright State the last two years. Could they follow in the footsteps of those teams and give the Horizon a third straight surprise from the predicted cellar dweller? Sure. But while the team has a lot of depth at guard, it lacks a strong point guard in a league where strong points are common. They are weak on the boards unless McClellan and Odiase come through, and there still isn't much proven scoring punch. Another long season may be in order.

Probable Starters:
PG – 6-1 GS Jay Harris (10.8 ppg, 2.8 apg, 2.8 rpg, 89.7% FT at Wagner)
SG – 6-3 junior Gabe Snider (3.6 ppg, .431 3P%)
G – 6-4 senior Marc Brown (11.3 ppg, 2.8 rpg, .347 3P%)
F - 6-5 senior Ahman Fells (2.1 ppg, 2.1 rpg)
C – 6-8 junior Jake Wiegand (7.5 ppg, 5.1 rpg)

Other Key Players:
G – 5-8 junior D'Juan Miller (17.8 ppg, 4.8 apg, 2.5 spg at Eastern Arizona CC)
G – 5-10 senior Jay Parker (3.7 ppg, 2.7 apg)
G – 6-3 Soph Markese McGuire (3.1 ppg)
G- 5-11 junior Paris Burns (9.6 ppg, 3.7 apg at Vincinnes JC)
G/F- 6-4 RS freshman Lance Whitaker
F- 6-9 junior Jason McClellan (11.3 ppg, 3.7 rpg at Eastern Wyoming (JC))
C - 6-9 freshman Tai Odiase

(http://iheartinspiration.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/My-head-says-Who-cares-But-then-my-heart-whispers-You-do-stupid.jpg)

Just re-read the Green Bay article and found it hysterical that the big guy from (Nigeria?) was ineligible academically at various places but now can play at Green Bay.  Makes all the sense in the world as he will probably major in, what?  Basket weaving??   :crazy:

Quote from: vu72 on September 19, 2014, 06:39:35 AM
Just re-read the Green Bay article and found it hysterical that the big guy from (Nigeria?) was ineligible academically at various places but now can play at Green Bay.  Makes all the sense in the world as he will probably major in, what?  Basket weaving??   :crazy:

Can he breathe underwater, 72?

Here's my Milwaukee preview, which I posted yesterday on the other board. Perusing the Youngstown State board as I started thinking about that preview, I learned that they're fuming about this preview on the Milwaukee board. http://uwmfreak.proboards.com/thread/67 (http://uwmfreak.proboards.com/thread/67) ... n-previews. So mad they're apparently posting about it on other teams' boards! Personally, I think it's pretty balanced, and has nice things to say about Tiby, McWhorter, Arians, Panoske, last year's run. The Milwaukee folks seem to think I hate them, but to paraphrase Bogey in Casablanca, when asked if he despised the lugubrious Ugarte: "I probably would if I thought about them." I don't think about the Panthers enough to hate them. I wrote (http://udtitanbasketball.freeforums.net (http://udtitanbasketball.freeforums.net) ... ague-links) about the Panther board some time back: "high level of discussion - thanks to some sharp posters..." May have to take that back.

Anyway, here you go:

Milwaukee
2014: 7-9 Horizon (5th); 21-14 overall (lost to Villanova in NCAA first round).

Coming off an NCAA appearance, with most of the team back, folks in Milwaukee are understandably looking forward to the 2014-15 season. But here's the stark reality, Panther fans – your team is not that good.

I mean, it's great that the Panthers won the Horizon tournament to make NCAA tournament last year. I'm not taking anything away from that achievement. Just don't expect too much this year.

A unanimous (or at least near-unanimous) pick to finish last a year ago, the Panthers pulled a nice early season upset at Davidson and got through an otherwise homely non-conference schedule (#273 in the nation) with a 10-4 record. Other than Davidson, only one of their other 9 non-con conquests boasted a winning record against D-I competition last year, that being Alabama State, whose D-I competition, of course, was pretty marginal. The Panthers then went just 7-9 in Horizon play, but got hot at the right moment, winning 4 games in the tournament, which got them to the NCAA, where they were stomped by Villanova.

The end result was a remarkable 21-14 record. I say remarkable because Milwaukee, though seven games over .500, actually allowed more points than it scored. Nationwide, only 9 other teams had winning records while being outscored on the season, and the best of those nine was just 17-14 (Charlotte). In Horizon league play, it was worse, as MIlwaukee allowed far more points than it scored. The Panthers were 8th in average scoring margin in conference games, ahead only of UIC, with opponents outscoring the Panthers by nearly six points per game. In contrast, Detroit, 6-10 in the Horizon season, was outscored by an average of less than 2.5 points per game. Milwaukee was a bad shooting team (247th nationally) and a bad defensive team (237th in opponent's shooting percentage). They were a bad rebounding team (266th in rebounding percentage) and a bad ball handling team (269th in turnovers per possession).

Usually, when a team whose fundamental stats are bad nevertheless wins a lot, it's because they won a lot of close games, but Milwaukee didn't even do that. They were just 2-3 in games determined by one possession (3 points or less) or OT. And when bad, they were often very bad, with losses by 28, 22, 20, 19, 16, and 16. By comparison, last place UIC (6-25) only lost 5 games by margins of 16 or more, and 8th place Detroit (13-19) just 4. But the Panthers were 10-1 in games decided by 5 to 9 points in regulation, and they had regular season champ Green Bay's number, beating the Phoenix two of three and losing the third in OT.

Though most of the Panther squad is back, they lost top scorer Jordan Aaron (14.7 ppg) and #2 scorer and rebounder Kyle Kelm (12.5 ppg, 5.1 rpg). Also departing will be role players Malcolm Moore (3.8 ppg, 3.0 rpg in 13 mpg) and the oft-injured Thierno Niang (2.4 ppg in 12 mpg).

So Milwaukee was a bit of a fluke last year, and they've lost two of their best players. All that doesn't mean that they'll be anybody's pushover this year. After all, fluke or not, they did win 21 games last year. There is some talent here. Just not enough to contend.

The best returning player is junior forward Matt Tiby. Tiby (12 ppg, 6.5 rpg) faded last year as the season wore on (he was averaging 14.6 points and 6.7 rebounds through the team's first 20 games), but I expect him to be one of the league's better players this year. Senior point guard Steve McWhorter is also a solid player who has the potential to contend for all-conference honors. 6-10 junior center JJ Panoske has been a role player for two seasons, but should be ready to step into the starting lineup. Joining Panoske and Tiby up front is small forward Austin Arians, a good 3 point shooter who averaged 11 points per game last season. The off-guard spot will be a battle between Akeem Springs, a transfer from Northern Illinois, Jevon Lyle, who started two games last season, and sophomore Cody Wichmann, with Springs holding the edge.

This is not a deep team. There is no real back-up for McWhorter. Two who could see time at the point off the bench are Jimmy Stamas, a juco who averaged 11 ppg at Morton CC, and freshman Justin Jordan, a lightly recruited relative of the famous Michael. In the front, the Panthers hope for big things from 6-9 redshirt twins Brett and Alex Prahl. Brett is the better of the two. Trinson White is probably the backup small forward. But White, a juco from Indian Hills CC, was redshirted last season after a serious injury the year before. He's scarcely played for two years and averaged under 7 ppg as a juco soph before his injury. In other words, their bench doesn't have a point guard or a front court player with even a minute of D-I game time.

One can envision this team flaming out and winning just 4 conference games. Arians is the only proven three-point threat, there is little depth up-front, and as noted, this team won last year despite poor shooting, poor rebounding, and poor ball handling. Yet it's also not unrealistic to see Arians emerge as a major scorer, Tiby become an all-conference player, and JJ Panoske emerge as a quality big man, with the Panthers finishing in the top half of the league.

The most realistic projection, however, would seem to be 6 or 7 conference wins and a second division finish. But this year there will be no hot run through the conference tournament – Milwaukee is barred from post-season tournaments due to its poor recent APR.

Probable starters:
PG – 6-2 senior Steve McWhorter (7.8 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 4.0 apg)
SG – 6-4 sophomore Akeem Springs, (7.7 points, 2.9 rebounds per game at Northern Illinois in 2013)
SF – 6-6 junior Austin Arians ( 11.1 ppg, 3.5 rpg, .367 3P%)
PF – 6-8 junior Matt Tiby (12 ppg, 6.5 rpg)
C – 6-10 junior JJ Panoske (3.2 ppg, 2.5 rpg in 10 minutes pg.)

Other Key Players:
PG 6-3 freshman Justin Jordan
G 6-2 junior Jevon Lyle (3.9 ppg)
SG 6-5 sophomore Cody Wichmann (2.8 ppg)
SF – 6-5 junior Trinson White
F 6-9 freshman Brett Prahl (redshirt)

Here's everyone's favorite:

Oakland
2014: Horizon 7-9 (T-5th); Overall 13-20.

Oakland underperformed in a disappointing Horizon debut last year. That team must now deal with the loss of the school's all-time leading scorer, Travis Bader, plus Duke Mondy, who led the Horizon (and was second in the nation) in steals, and was 5th in the Horizon in assists. Mondy was also OU's number two rebounder and number three scorer. (They also lose forward Joey Asbury, who started 6 games, and off-guard Mitch Baenziger, who averaged 16 minutes a game and shot 38% from 3 point range). Like most teams in the Horizon this year, OU is full of question marks, and how those question marks play out could place them anywhere from 3rd to 8th in the standings.

Let's start with the bright side. There are two spots where the Grizzlies are emphatically settled, and they are the two positions that many consider the most important for any team.

The first is at center, where 6-11 senior Corey Petros, the league's leading rebounder and a second team All-Conference selection, returns. Petros has been remarkably consistent the last two seasons (12.5 ppg, 8.2 rpg, .565 FG%, 0.3 blocks in 2013; 13.3 ppg, 8.2 rpg, .576 FG%, 0.4 blocks in 2014). With Bader and Mondy gone, look for Petros to carry more of the offensive burden, even if other teams are able to sag a bit more than when the two recent graduates patrolled the perimeter.

The other place OU is settled is at the point, where Kahlil Felder returns after leading the league in assists as a freshman. Felder's overall numbers were very nice last year- 9.5 ppg, 6.4 assists—but he was even better in league play: 12.3 ppg, 7.3 apg. Felder hit just 32.3% of his three point attempts on the season, but was at 37.8% in league play. Felder had a solid assist/turnover ratio and, Keifer Sykes notwithstanding, may be the best pure point guard in the league.

That's a great start to a championship team. Unfortunately for the Grizzlies, everything else is a question mark, and I don't see most of the potentially good answers panning out.

The shooting guard—next in an impressive line that began a decade ago with Calvin Wooten and runs through Eric Kangas, Reggie Hamilton, and Bader—is likely to be Max Hooper. Hooper rode the pine as a freshman on Harvard's 2012 NCAA team, appearing in just two games all year, then transferred to St. John's. After sitting out a transfer year, he was a bit player last season, averaging about 9 minutes of play per game in 25 appearances. He averaged just 3.2 ppg but hit over 40% of his 62 three point attempts. Graduating in three years allows him to play immediately for OU, with two years of eligibility. Hooper's defense is suspect and he doesn't pass or rebound particularly well. But Coach Kampe knows how to use spot-up shooters, and at 6-6, Hooper can shoot over most guards in the league. His ability to score from outside will be crucial to opening up the middle for Petros. Even if Hooper has a big year, however—and that's a definite possibility—I think it's safe to say that the trend of ever improving shooting guards ends with the transition from Bader to Hooper.

At forward, 6-6 senior Dante Williams has always come off the bench, even last season when he averaged more minutes than any other OU forward. He may not start this year either, but he'll probably get the most minutes again either way. He's athletic with a solid all-around game. Williams is also a decent 3 point shooter and gives Oakland another option from behind the arc.

The other key forwards are Ralph Hill and Tommie McCune. Hill was a disappointment after transferring from Dayton, averaging barely 7 minutes in 26 games. Now a 5th year senior, Hill had scored just 10 points all season when Kampe stuck him into the starting lineup in mid-February. Hill immediately turned in back-to-back-to-back double figure scoring efforts against Detroit, Wright State, and UIC, but then disappeared again, scoring just 17 points in the team's remaining 4 games. Hill is a good finisher at the rim.

McCune transferred to Oakland after being booted from the squad at West Virginia. During his transfer sit season at OU, Kampe kicked him off the team for disciplinary reasons. But McCune surprised folks by staying in school and working hard, and Kampe gave him another chance. Things started well for McCune, who reached double figures in early season losses to UCLA, California, and Gonzaga. But he is prone to foul trouble, is weak on defense, and his PT dropped as the year went on. Over OU's last 12 games he averaged less than 6 minutes per game and scored a total of just 19 points.

Except for the loser of the Hill/McCune battle (or Williams, if Hill and McCune both start), OU's bench essentially consists of what were, for the most part, lightly recruited freshmen. Jalen Hayes, an injury RS freshman, is the standout of the bunch and likely to see considerable time at forward. In fact, don't be shocked if he grabs the starting spot away from Hill and McCune. Femi Olujobi is a freshman forward from Long Island, and was a modestly hot prospect at one time who wasn't much recruited after a knee injury and then a broken tibia in high school. OU hopes that those injuries made Olujobi overlooked diamond. At center, they'll hope 6-10 RS freshman Artis Cleveland is ready, but he's still a project. Cleveland originally signed with Mississippi Valley State but transferred to OU before ever playing there. At guard, redshirt freshmen Nick Daniels and Collin Weaver will be called on when Felder and Hooper, respectively, need a blow. Weaver's supposed to be a three-point specialist, and, as with Bader, OU was his only D-I offer. We'll see if lightning strikes twice.

Oakland is playing its typically brutal non-conference schedule. In December, they have 6 consecutive road games. After starting the trip with a game at Morehead State, one of the better OVC teams, they play at Michigan State, Arizona, Pittsburgh, Clemson, and Maryland. Plus there's a season opening road game at Iowa State. Whether this will get Kampe's team ready for the Horizon, or just leave them physically beat up and dispirited, is up for grabs. If they don't win some tough November home games against Toledo, Western Michigan, and Georgia State, things could be looking pretty grim when they head into conference play, where they open with a tough run against Valparaiso, @ Cleveland State, @ Detroit, and versus Green Bay. The dream scenario is OU wins those tough non-con home games, knocks off one or two of the BCS schools in December, and takes early command of the Horizon by winning three of those first four conference games. The nightmare scenario is losing the tough home games, getting swept on the road in December, and losing 3 or all of their first four conference games, leaving them with 14 or 15 losses by mid-January.

Oakland fans like to blame their poor 2014 season on injuries and the unexpected departure of point guard Ryan Bass, but that's not really true. Yes, Bass was a solid player. But the flip side is that he likely would have blocked Felder's development, and Felder proved to be a much better player. The idea that the freshmen Hayes and Daniels would have would have changed OU's 2014 fortunes but for their injuries is not to be taken seriously. And backup forward Raphael Carter, who suffered a career ending injury before last season, averaged just 1.9 ppg as a junior in 2013. Sure, having them all would have helped, but not to the point of contending. And in any case, Carter and Bass aren't coming back.

In the final assessment, then, Oakland goes into the 2014-15 season with basically the same team as last year, except that Hooper replaces Bader, and some combination of freshmen will be asked to replace Mondy (plus Asbury and Baenziger). I think that Kampe is a good coach. I think Felder and Petros are really good players–- all-conference quality players. I think Hooper will score a bunch of points. But even assuming that some of OU's returning players will improve, and that some of the freshmen contribute, the problem remains: Oakland lost 20 games last year. If the core of Petros/Felder/McCune/Hill/Williams couldn't get it done with Bader and Mondy in 2014, how do they get it done without Bader and Mondy in 2015? This team has the type of talent that makes a run through the conference tournament possible, but in the end, there are simply too many ifs to rank Oakland a 2015 regular season contender, and I see their upside as a middle of the pack finish. Since this is a Titans' board, I should note that they are quite capable of skinning Detroit twice more.

Probable 2015 starters:
PG – 5-9 sophomore Kahlil Felder (9.5 ppg, 6.4 apg, 3.9 rpg)
SG – 6-6 RS junior Max Hooper (3.2 ppg for St. John's).
F - 6-6 RS senior Ralph Hill (2.5 ppg)
F – 6-6 senior Dante Williams (7.6 ppg, 3.6 rpg)
C – 6-10 senior Corey Petros (13.3 ppg, 8.2 rpg)

Other Key Players:
F – 6-8 junior Tommie McCune (5.6 ppg, 2.7 rpg)
F - 6-7 RS Freshman Jalen Hayes
F- 6-8 freshman Femi Olujobi
C – 6-10 RS freshman Artis Cleveland
G- 6-3 RS freshman Collin Weaver
G – 6-1 RS freshman Nick Daniels

WH,

He has his Valpo preview up now.

Valparaiso
2014: 9-7 Horizon (4th); 18-16 overall (CIT)
Return 48.3% of scoring (6th); 56.8% of rebounding (7th)

After losing their top five players in minutes per game (and six of the top 7) from the 2013 conference champions, Valpo turned what could have been a long rebuilding year in 2014 into a solid season. The Crusaders patched some holes with transfers, got some good play from freshmen, and while their final RPI was just 195 on an 18-16 season, they stayed in the Horizon race until late and got a bid to the CIT, where they lost to Columbia by two points. And they set the groundwork for further success: whereas they began the 2013-14 season with four seniors in the starting lineup, by the end of season they were starting just one senior, All-Conference selection LaVonte Dority (15.7 ppg).

Were I writing this preview last April, I would have placed Valpo solidly in the league's upper half and a dark horse to steal the regular season title. But the Crusaders suffered a big blow last month when their starting point guard, sophomore Lexus Williams, tore his ACL. He will almost certainly miss the entire season. Williams, a conference All-Freshman team member last season, averaged 6.5 points and 2.4 assists while shooting over 36% from the arc. In a league in which the byword is "parity," it's hard to see the Crusaders snatching a title without Williams.

With Williams out of the backcourt, the Crusaders strength is clearly up front. Six foot nine Sophomore Alec Peters is a rising star who should contend for All-Conference honors – in fact, it wouldn't surprise me if he contended for Player of the Year. Peters started last season gangbusters, including a 16 point, 13 rebound game at Ohio and 30 point games against Evansville and Loyola Marymount. He faded in January, averaging just 7.4 points in nine games from January 2 through February 1. But that type of fade is not that uncommon for freshmen – even in this day of year-round AAU tournaments, the move from high school to major college basketball is mentally and physically exhausting for most frosh. More importantly when anticipating this season, Peters came back to average over 15 points per game in Valpo's final 10 games. Peters is a guy who does most everything well, reminiscent of recent Horizon POY Ryan Broekhoff. He rebounds, plays "D," passes well, finishes at the rim, and can hit the three. He is among the top 5 returning Horizon players in scoring, FG percentage, and 3 point percentage, 6th in FT percentage and 10th in rebounding.

The other forward will be 6-7 soph Jubril Adekoya, who after starting slow (22 minutes in Valpo's first 4 games, with 15 of those against NAIA North Park) moved into the starting lineup in December. Adekoya also seemed to run out of gas late last season, and unlike Peters, he didn't bounce back. (In Valpo's final six games he averaged just 3.5 points and 2.8 rebounds). But Adekoya has the tools and I look for him to be one of the league's most improved players. He's got good hands and finishes well, and his 230 pound frame takes up some good space down low.

The center is the 6-10 senior Vashil Fernandez. Last year I said that Fernandez would start over Alabama transfer Mousse Gueye, which drew a lot of scoffing from Valpo fans. It took coach Bryce Drew half a season, but he finally figured it out and followed orders, realizing that Valpo's future was with the big Jamaican. (I also predicted Clay Yeo would start ahead of Alec Peters, which also drew a lot of scoffing from Valpo fans. Well, one of two...) Fernandez's season was very similar to that of Detroit Ugochukwu Njoku, and if that's all he gives the Crusaders again this year they can probably live with that. But Fernandez is also a good candidate to improve. Usually, I figure most improvement comes between the freshman and sophomore years and the sophomore and junior years – by the end of your junior year, you're pretty much developed into what you're going to be, and most players who balloon their stats as seniors (such as Evan Bruinsma last year) do so mainly because they are simply asked to do a lot more. But Fernandez has more room to improve than most seniors. He didn't take up the sport until well into his teens, and after arriving at Valpo he sat out the 2012 season, then hardly played in 2013. So his game is still developing more than that of the typical upperclassman. To have a bigger season – say 10 points and 7 or 8 rebounds per game – Fernandez has to stay out of foul trouble. He fouled out of 7 games last year and was often up to 3 or 4 fouls in 15 or so minutes of play. And while Fernandez is a monster shot blocker (3rd in the league last year) he has a tendency to go for the block when he should sit tight, leaving him out of position for rebounds or, if necessary, further defense. Still, he gives Valpo a proven, true center, something that is rare in the Horizon.

When the starters need a blow, E. Victor Nickerson, a 6-8 wing, should be first off the bench. Nickerson transferred from Charlotte, where he started 15 games in the 2013 season. He's a good player, but at just 180 pounds he's not much help banging inside, and he's got to up his 36% shooting percentage. Still up in the air is the fate of LSU transfer Shane Hammink, another tall (6-7) wing. Hammink, a junior from the Netherlands, averaged 11 minutes and started two games as a freshman but saw his time cut last year to just 120 minutes on the season. He is said to be seeking a waiver to play immediately but there is no word on that as we "go to press."

For help down low, Valpo is high on 6-8 freshman David Skara, a Croatian who played high school ball locally and had an offer from Virginia Tech. They've also got 6-9 David Chadwick, a 25 year old, 5th year senior who played sparingly last year after transferring from Rice. Chadwick has chronic knee problems and I thought his career was finished last season, but he's come back and they say he's healthy. I don't expect much but if he can give Drew a solid 8 to 10 minutes a game that will help a lot.

With Williams gone from the backcourt, junior off guard Keith Carter slides over to play the point. Carter began his career at St. Louis, where he was highly touted by the late Rick Majerus, but he was a bit of a disappointment last season (5.7 ppg, 2.3 apg) after becoming eligible in December. The midyear transfer is always tough – you sit out a full year, then you start playing in December when everyone else has been in game situations for six weeks. About the time you get the rust off, the season ends. I think Carter will be better this season. But I don't think he'll be better than Williams, and his moving to the point opens another hole at the two-guard spot.

That hole should have been filled by another promising sophomore, Clay Yeo, who played in 28 games last season, averaging four points per game and shooting 45.6% from behind the arc. But Yeo either couldn't, or just didn't want to, handle the rigors of D-I ball, and transferred to tiny Bethel College. That opens an opportunity for either juco transfer Darien Walker (13.4 ppg at John Logan CC), or another soph, 6-3 Nick Davidson. I look for Walker to win that battle, but I'm not sure how good he'll be. Walker is a slasher, and not a particularly good three point shooter. But he can get to the basket. Davidson was nagged by minor injuries and played just 67 minutes last season. He is likely to be a pretty decent mid-major player, but he was behind Yeo in the pecking order and I'm not sure he's up to starting this season. Another option for Drew is to play Nickerson (or Hammink, if he's eligible) at the 2-guard position, but neither of them are particularly good ball handlers and given the quality of defensive guard play around the league, this could be a problem. In fact, Nickerson is probably going to have to play some guard – the other options off the bench are freshmen Tevonn Walker and Max Joseph, teammates last season at Vanier College (HS) in Montreal. Neither player appeared to be on the radar of the U.S. recruiting scene, so it's tough to tell if Drew signed these two in desperation during a bad recruiting year, or if he stole a march on the competition. The truth is likely in between. Whatever, when signed neither player was expected to play major minutes in 2014-15.

The unexpected losses of Williams and Yeo have really robbed Valpo of the type of depth they've had in recent years, when it sometimes seemed that the Crusaders came at you in waves. Players such as Gueye and Bobby Capobianco may not have lived up to the press clips they brought with them when transferring to Valpo, but that was a lot of size, muscle, and talent to bring off the bench. They'll also miss Jordan Coleman, their #3 scorer last season.

Summing up? I found as I wrote this preview that my enthusiasm for Valpo's chances dropped. I really do think there is reason to believe that Carter, Fernandez, and Adekoya can improve a lot this season, but that shouldn't obscure the fact that last year they were all pretty average. I think Davidson is likely to be a solid mid-major player, but perhaps not this year – he was expected, remember, to be the 4th guard this year, not a starter or key rotation player. I suspect that Hammink will not get a waiver to play this year. I'm dubious that Chadwick contributes much. If Chadwick and Hammink don't contribute, you've got a pretty thin bench backing up a number of relatively unproven starters. Bryce Drew is not, in my mind, a particularly good game coach – he's OK, but he seems to have real difficulties with clock management and handling his timeouts. But bigger picture, he gets the most out of his players, and Valpo always plays hard. A finish somewhere between 3rd and 6th seems reasonable, probably towards the high end, but I do have my doubts.

Likely starting lineup:
PG - 6-0 junior Keith Carter (5.7 ppg, 2.3 assists).
SG – 6-3 junior Darien Walker (13.4 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 1.4 apg at John Logan CC)
F - 6-8 soph Alec Peters (12.7 ppg, 4.8 rpg, .383 3P%)
F - 6-7 soph Jubril Adekoya (5.8 ppg, 3.4 rpg, .537 FG%)
C- 6-10 senior Vashil Fernandez (4.3 points, 5.1 rebounds, .578 FG%)

Other key players
G- 6-3 Nick Davidson (1.6 ppg)
F/G – 6-8 RS junior E. Victor Nicholson (5.8 ppg, 2.6 rpg for Charlotte in 2013)
F/G – 6-7 junior Shane Hammink (if eligible) (1 ppg, 1 rpg at LSU)
F – 6-9 RS senior David Chadwick (2.9 ppg, 1.1 rpg)
F – 6-8 freshman David Skara

Peters is going to score a lot of points.

This is an amazingly thorough, in-depth preview of our team.  So much better than the superficial stuff you typically see this time of year.  Kudos to Commissioner! A big :thumbsup:.

Valpo doesn't get 5th or 6th, not in our nature unless something whacky happens ;) (2008-2009 season)

I agree, this is good in general, but this statement...

Quote from: motowntitan on October 02, 2014, 06:34:25 PMit's tough to tell if Drew signed these two in desperation during a bad recruiting year, or if he stole a march on the competition. The truth is likely in between.

How exactly is the truth "in between" desperation and good scouting?  "Well, they were kind of good, but we were kind of desperate"?  Either the kids can play, and he called this right, or it was a reach and they won't be up to D1, and he was wrong. 

I don't see how there's an "in between" in his dichotomy.

(nb it's fair to say I'm unloading on this minor point because moral relativism is creeping into everything lately)

Also interesting that because he's not a fan, his perception of our team is therefore not ours, which is "guards guards GUARDS!!!" but 'strength in the front court'.  The way he has laid it out, it certainly seems more realistic, at least in light of having to put our Lexus up in the shop :/

I don't know of any coach who brings in players he doesn't want to his program.

The comment about the Canadians is almost laughable.  Coach Drew could find any good guards in Indiana, Illinois, Ohio, Kentucky...I guess I understand that as these states really don't grow good players.  As a result I fully understand how in desperation,(you wouldn't want to put out a call for tryouts)you'd take anybody.

One kid was ranked in the top 10 in all of Canada.  Any amount of research could have discovered this.  The proper question should have been..."because Coach Drew chose to pass on any number of excellent players in the Midwest, there is little doubt about the skill level of these two coming to Valpo from Canada"

You're more likely to find quality apples in an orchard that hasn't been picked over.  It's the same strategy that Scott used to find big men in Europe.  It's progressive and creative and is one of the reasons Valpo has been and remains a top notch mid major program.

Like the analogy, wh

Hello Crusaders,

I don't post much on other boards (which I figure are for other teams' fans), but I read them a lot, and having a whole thread for me, well... I had just to register here and comment.

First, I thank WH for posting these previews, despite the obvious copyright violations.  ;)  Some guys sky dive, some work on cars, some collect stamps, some play Axis & Allies - my hobby is basically thinking about college basketball (and especially Horizon basketball) which takes up way too much of my time, probably. But it's my hobby. I write these mainly for my own enjoyment but I am pleased that others like them and that is part of the enjoyment I get from doing them. And no, Panther, I don't hate anyone, let alone Milwaukee.

Second, I've made a brief addition to the Valpo preview since WH posted it here - something I had intended to include but accidentally left out. It is this: "Valpo committed more turnovers last year than any other Horizon team, and now they've lost their point guard for the year." Of course, part of the reason Valpo led the league in turnovers is the relatively up-tempo style of play; part may be stone-hands or other errors in the front line. Still, if you lead the league and turnovers and lose your point guard, that's gotta hurt. Anyway, that was in my paragraph at the end of the preview for why my enthusiasm for Valpo had dropped as I'd written the preview. That further explains, rather than changes, my final assessment as it appears: "A finish somewhere between 3rd and 6th seems reasonable, probably towards the high end, but I do have my doubts." If I were pinned down, I'd say 3rd or 4th, but with some doubts. Pre-Williams injury, I'd say definite 3rd, with possibility to finish higher.

Finally, what's with all the stuff on the Canadians? I write like 40,000 words or something on your team, and that's what you all seem focused on?

To Apostle: Some people see a team sign a couple of guys who don't seem to be on anyone's radar, relatively late in the recruiting year, and think "desperation." And some see a team sign a couple of guys from a place where scouts aren't normally looking and think, "a hidden gem - a steal." The truth is likely in between - they're probably good enough players overlooked by others, but I've seen nothing that suggests that these guys are great, previously undiscovered finds. Maybe they'll turn out to be great finds. I suspect they'll turn out to be decent mid-major players, but neither a "steal," nor flops signed in desperation. Is that really so non-sensical?

BlackPanther's comment is a non-sequitur: I don't know of coaches who sign kids they don't want either. But you can't (and don't) always get what you want. The life of a recruiter is often signing 2nd or 3rd or 4th or 5th or 6th or lower choices, because the others have turned you down. I'm not saying that these two guys were Drew's 3rd choice or 6th or 25th choices. I don't know. And that's exactly the question people are asking: "Why did Drew sign these two guys no one else was following? Does he know something others don't know, or was he just at the point where recruiting wasn't going well, they were the best available to him, and better them than nothing?" Of course, there is that third option - something in between - even if Apostle thinks it makes no sense.

Which takes us to vu72. If you presume Coach Drew always gets his man, then yes, you might say "because Coach Drew chose to pass on any number of excellent players in the Midwest, there is little doubt about the skill level of these two coming to Valpo from Canada." Of course, you could say that about every Valpo recruit: "Because Coach Drew chose to pass on any number of excellent players in the Netherlands and elsewhere abroad, there is little doubt about the skill level of these two local signings." But that presumes the very issue in question. If you don't presume that Bryce always gets his man--and look at your own threads on 2014 recruiting, there were a fair number of guards getting offers from Valpo before these two were offered and signed (Erick Locke, Darreon Reddick, CJ Rivers, Jevon Carter - that's just a few of the many 2014 guards who passed on Valpo, there are more)--then it's a reasonable question if he a) was getting desperate to sign someone, and this was the best he could get; b) got a real steal - i.e. "found a pair of quality apples in an orchard not picked over," as WH suggests (I agree, good analogy, and I agree that overseas recruiting has been a big plus for Valpo); or c) was somewhere in between - he found a couple solid players others weren't on to, but neither is likely to have immediate impact. I'll take c), Monty. (And before anyone jumps on it, there's no shame in having several recruits turn you down - that's part of the point.) Being aware that several of Coach Drew's recruits have not turned out to be all-conference players, I think your formulation, vu72, which is basically "they must be really good, or he wouldn't have signed them" goes too far. I think that Coach Drew has shown enough on the recruiting trail that I don't at all blame you for trusting his judgment on the Canadians, or anyone else he signs, for that matter. But he doesn't always get his man, and his judgment is not always perfect, and with this type of signing the question seems natural.

Anyway, toss all that aside. C'mon, guys, a throw-away line on the Canucks is not what the preview is all about. Just substitute "he signed two guards from Canada that were not on the radar of most U.S. scouts," and read on.

Switching gears, and since I'm here, I really like the Valpo-Detroit rivalry. We're the only privates and the only religiously affiliated schools in the league anymore, similar in size, competitive of late (well, the Titans not so much last year) with Titans getting 2012 NCAA bid, Valpo 2013 bid, with a touch of bad blood, and we've played a bunch of exciting games over the last 3 years. I think it's potentially one of the best rivalries in the Horizon (maybe it already is, depending on how deep you can go and still be among the "best"). Looking forward to this year's games. Good luck.

Thanks wh for posting the previews here.

Commish

PS. I love a school that doesn't flinch from sticking with its traditional nickname "Crusaders" in an era of PC-dom. 

Hear hear commish.  Well written response and fair by any measure.  count me firmly in the camp of those wearing gold colored glasses.  If Detroit had a football team like ours you would understand the desperate  measure of our comments.  Basketball can't come soon enough!! 

Quote from: Commissioner on October 05, 2014, 08:07:48 PMAnyway, toss all that aside. C'mon, guys, a throw-away line on the Canucks is not what the preview is all about. Just substitute "he signed two guards from Canada that were not on the radar of most U.S. scouts," and read on.

I see what you mean; I think that what you explained is better at explicating that thought than what you originally wrote.

I only focused on that line because it was the only egregious "what?" for me in reading it...that's a good thing.  It means the rest of it passes muster.

And if you don't play Axis-n-Allies I'd be happy to teach you.  I'm really good at it, in the sense that almost everyone I teach turns around and beats me :)

Hopefully Belmont gets added for all sports, so that we have a group of 3 :)

I'm trying to step these up to complete them before Horizon media day on Oct. 15. Here is Wright State. We'll close with YSU and then our Titans.

Wright State
2014 Record: 10-6 Horizon (3rd place); 21-15 Overall (lost 2nd round of CIT)
Returning Scoring 34.9% (9th); Returning Rebounding 30.3% (9th).

In the fall of 2012 Wright State was pretty much a consensus pick for last in Horizon pre-season polls. Instead, the Raiders surged to a 20 win season in which they reached the Horizon Tournament final and went on to the CBI, where they surprised Tulsa and Richmond before falling to eventual tourney champ Santa Clara.

After that surprising season, 2013-2014 was supposed to be Wright State's year (at least WSU fans thought so (I thought a third place finish more likely) with a senior-laden team that included the top nine scorers from 2013, plus Butler transfer Chrishawn Hopkins. But the Raiders stumbled out of the gate, and against a creampuff non-conference schedule were just 5-7 (3-7 against D-I competition) by mid-December, including losses to North Carolina A&T and South Alabama. The Raiders eventually came around, winning 8 of 10 in the next month, although they didn't win a road game until January 10. They finished the season third in conference play, and closed with six consecutive wins to again reach the Horizon final. Just when it appeared they might realize the lofty preseason predictions, the Raiders were ambushed by Milwaukee in the Horizon tournament final, and had to settle for the CIT, where they lost to Ohio U. in the second round.

Unlike last season, this season the Raiders have been decimated by graduation. The Raiders lose their top scorer and rebounder AJ Pacher (11.4 ppg, 4.9 rpg), their best defensive player and #2 scorer Cole Darling (8.5 ppg), their #3 & 4 scorers Miles Dixon (8.5 ppg, 2.1 apg) and Jerran Young (7.9 ppg, 3.6 rpg), and their leader in minutes played, Matt Vest (7.5 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.2 apg). Then center Tavares Sledge (2.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg) got himself booted from the team this fall for unspecified rules violations. So it should be a grim season on the edge of Dayton, right?

Well, perhaps not. It's fun to be a Raider because everybody gets to play. There are few coaches in the country who so regularly go deep into the bench as Billy Donlon. Even Darling and Pacher, both second team All-Conference players (Darling in 2013, Pacher last year) were basically high quality role players, rather than stars, in Donlon's system. A plus side to this approach is that there are always experienced players to throw into the lineup, and newcomers are efficiently eased into minutes as they demonstrate the ability to handle them. True, the Raiders lose a higher percentage of scoring and rebounding than any other team in the league. But that fact notwithstanding, Wright has more experience than you might think for a team that suffered such heavy losses, and with Donlon adding one of the league's better recruiting classes, Wright State should again be competitive.

The key backcourt returnees are seniors Reggie Arceneaux, Kendall Griffin, and Hopkins. Arceneaux is a quick little guard who has been in and out of WSU's starting lineup for three seasons now. Last year he played the fewest minutes of his three seasons, but also became a much more efficient player. He played much more under control than in the past, boosting his assist/turnover ratio and assists/minute totals, and emerging as a deadly shooter, hitting a league best 46.5% of his 3 point attempts and 91.9% from the foul line. Griffin is a strong defensive player, and Donlon likes defense. Hopkins was a bit of a disappointment last year but he did hit 44% of his three point efforts.

An important backcourt addition is 6-4 juco Joe Thomasson. Wright State's strong recruiting class also includes three good guards. The problem is that Wright doesn't need guards, it needs forwards. Thus on this guard-laden team the three—shooting guards Grant Evans and Grant Benzinger, and PG Justin Mitchell—will probably all play relatively minor roles. They've also got 5-10 sophomore point Mark Howell, who saw limited action in 20 games as a freshman.

In the forecourt, the loss of Sledge leaves the Raiders without much size. You can count on 6-6 junior JT Yoho to fill one of the forward spots, if he stays out of trouble (he'll probably be suspended for a game or two to start the season after a recent DUI arrest). He's a good three-point shooter, although his numbers were down last year, to 36.7% (and only 29.3 percent once conference play began) from 42.2% as a freshman. Yoho can get lazy on defense and isn't a particularly strong rebounder, but he improved on both last year, and he can score.

The other spots are open, but WSU needs size and I look for Donlon to start 6-9 juco Michael Karena in the middle. The New Zealander's numbers were not impressive last year–-just 4 points and 2.1 rebounds per game at South Plains JC—but he had some solid mid-major offers and a fair amount of high major interest, so scouts obviously see something in him that doesn't show in the stats. Besides, Donlon really doesn't have any other options. Karena averaged less than 10 minutes per game at South Plains, however, and with Sledge gone, he'll be asked for a lot more time than that. We'll see if he's up to it. Donlon also has 6-7 soph Steve Davis, who started twice last season, but Davis shot just 34% and really ought to be backing up Yoho. He's not the answer to the lack of size in the middle. Beyond Yoho, Karena, and Steve Davis, Donlon will have to look to freshmen. Rod Davis, a 6-8, 225 lb. forward from Florida, is probably the best of the lot and likely to play a major role off the bench. In an ideal world they might redshirt skinny 6-9, 210 lb. Parker Ernsthausen, out of Dayton, but despite his skinny frame he's got talent and they may feel they need him this year. A third big freshman, 6-9, 240 lb. Zach Lett, is more of a true center but lacks the skill set of the other two and is unlikely to contribute much as a freshman.

Thomasson may be the key for WSU. Out of high school he originally verbaled to Oklahoma State, but later switched to WSU. He failed to qualify and Donlon stashed him out at little known State Fair CC, where he put up big numbers and was ranked as the #48 juco player in the nation by 247 Sports (CBS). He should be an impact player. If he steps in like the guy once recruited by Oklahoma State and Missouri, WSU could be a contender. My guess is Donlon will use a three guard lineup with Thomasson starting along with Griffin and Arceneaux at the point. Hopkins will get 20 minutes plus while backing up all three. All four are can play a competent point, and Wright State won't turn it over much.

That'll leave Yoho backed by Davis at forward, with Karena at center, with one or more of the freshmen – probably Rod Davis—to back him up. The freshman guards will get some minutes, too. At times we'll probably see four guards on the floor.

Donlon always goes deep into the bench and uses lots of lineup combos. His teams are also marked by tenacious perimeter defense. I don't see that changing. Another trademark of the Donlon era is soft non-conference schedules, and that isn't changing either – the Raiders have just 3 games against teams that finished above 150 in RPI last year, and two of those are league arranged games against Belmont. Don't knock it, though. The non-conference schedule will give them a chance to work the new guys in and pad win totals. They're in that pack of teams with Detroit, Valpo, and probably Milwaukee and Oakland, that will battle for spots 3 through 7 in the final standings. A respectable conference showing – as little as 7-9 - could assure the Raiders enough wins for a CBI or CIT bid at season's end, given that soft non-con schedule.

Probable Starters
G – 5-9 senior Reggie Arceneaux (7.1 ppg, 2.2 apg, .465 3P%)
G – 6-4 senior Kendall Griffin (5.1 ppg, 2.1 apg).
G – 6-4 junior Joe Thomasson (17.4 ppg, 6.2 apg at State Fair CC)
F – 6-6 junior JT Yoho (7.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg, .367 3P%
C - 6-9 junior Michael Karena (4 ppg, 2.1 rpg at South Plains JC)

Other Key Players
G – 6-2 senior Chrishawn Hopkins (5.3 ppg, 2.1 apg, .441 FG %)
F – 6-7 soph Steve Davis (2.7 ppg)
F – 6-8 freshman Rod Davis

Quote from: wh on October 06, 2014, 11:57:14 PM6-6 junior JT Yoho to fill one of the forward spots, if he stays out of trouble (he'll probably be suspended for a game or two to start the season after a recent DUI arrest)

...and a bottle of rum?

SORRY CAN'T HELP IT

Youngstown State
2014 Record: Horizon: 6-10 (T 7th); Overall 15-17
Returns 40.7% of scoring (8th); 54.4% or rebounding (7th)

I have a confession to make. The kind of deep, dark secret normally saved for, well, the confessional: I feel sorry for Jerry Slocum, and I kinda like the guy. There, I've said it.




OK, back from the "Hail Marys." I know the criticisms of Slocum as a game coach (such as losing to Oakland in last year's Horizon tournament on an inexcusable coaching blunder); as a team coach (such as when Marcus Keene broke Ryan Weber's nose last year with a punch in practice); and as a grouch (I've never seen a shot of him smiling and yes, I recall his churlish response when little-used freshman Gabriel Dos Santos scored in the final seconds of a rout in Youngstown two seasons ago). Well, hey, I recall Eli Holman punching out some fellow students in a bar. Who wouldn't be a bit grouchy when you're losing by 40, even if it is a bit unfair to be angry at an 18 year old getting a rare chance to play for, well, playing? What coach doesn't make game mistakes now and then? At least he's not having to visit the county lockup regularly, like the coach at one Horizon school in Ohio.

Let's be honest - Slocum has a nearly impossible task at YSU; certainly the toughest job in the league. He's got to recruit kids to a small city that probably has a worse reputation, and less scenery, than Detroit. The University has no particular academic reputation, no standout programs to attract bright young kids. His is the only Horizon school where basketball is not the primary sport, and indeed football dominates the entire Mahoning Valley community. The school has no basketball tradition to draw on at all, at least not since being a small college power in the 1960s. In the four years immediately proceeding Slocum's arrival, YSU had won a total of 27 games, losing 86 (and at least 20 all four seasons). And Slocum himself is 62 years old—the odds of him getting a better coaching job, even if he were to rip off back-to-back Horizon titles, are virtually nil. In fact, no one who has been head coach of the Penguins has ever gotten another D-I head coaching job, and this is a program that started in 1927. So this is it for the renaissance man from tiny King's College, who dutifully toiled away at the small college level for three decades before getting a chance at DI. Even the school's official web bio admits that what marks Slocum's tenure is "patience, determination and resiliency," which is another way of saying, "don't blame this guy, our program sucks."

And in fact, with patience, determination, and resiliency, Slocum has slowly, slowly made progress. The back-to-back winning seasons in 2012 and 2013 were YSU's first since the 1983-1985 seasons. It's 2013 CIT bid was it's first since joining D-I in 1981. And he has slowly but steadily improved the caliber of recruit going to YSU, opening pipelines to Florida and the Detroit area.

And with that background we come to the first season in the post-Kendrick Perry era. Perry is the greatest player in Penguin history, and that's not a loss this program can take lightly. YSU also lost forward Kamren Belin (11.3 ppg, 4.5 rpg) to graduation. But at least those losses were expected. The unexpected was the loss of guard Ryan Weber, who understandably decided to transfer after his teamnonmate Keene broke his nose. Weber was coming into his own at the time of the incident – in the previous three games he had scored 59 points on 19 of 36 shooting. He missed a few games and had a couple rough games when he first came back, but closed the season by averaging 19 ppg in his last 4 games. But after the season ended, he wasted little time in transferring to Ball State, a big blow to YSU's future.

And yet, strangely, I'm a bit bullish on Youngstown State this year. Let me add a quick qualifier – "bullish" in a relative sense. I'd still have to pick YSU to finish 8th (which seems to be the consensus of the professional prognosticators), just because I'm not sure who'll they'll beat out other than UIC. But I'm pretty sure they will beat out someone to finish higher than 8th,, and I may be alone in not being shocked by the idea of a top 5 finish. I just think they are likely to be better than most seem to think. First, they have some real good recruits who could help out right away. But mainly, the Penguins have two veteran players I really like.

The first is junior forward Bobby Hain, one of the Florida boys that Slocum has been getting with some regularity. Last year Hain averaged 11.1 points and 7.7 rebounds on the season, but his numbers in conference play were even better, at 12.5 points and 8.3 rebounds. He shot 50.9% for the year and 53% in conference play. He is remarkably sure-handed, with the fewest turnovers per minute played of any big man (by which I mean center or power forward) in the league. With Oakland's Corey Petros and Green Bay's Jordan Fouse, he was one of three big men in the league with more assists than turnovers. As a freshman, Hain showed talent but was inconsistent, as summed up in the season's first two games, in which he had 19 points and 11 rebounds against George Washington, followed by 0 and 0 against Georgia; and in the season's last two games, in which he had 11 points in the first round of the CIT, and 0 in the second round. Last year, however, he found that consistency, scoring between 10 and 18 points in 17 of YSU's final 20 games, and also grabbing at least 5 rebounds in 17 of those 20 contests. He averaged 10.9 rebounds in the season's final 10 games, and turned seven "double-doubles," more than any Horizon player except Petros. With the team's top three scorers gone, Hain will carry the offensive load, and could be poised for a monster season.

The other player I like is senior point guard DJ Cole. How good is Cole? He's the guy who pushed Kendrick Perry out of the point guard slot (or, more pessimistically but perhaps more realistically, the guy whose development allowed Kendrick Perry to move to the wing). Last season Cole built on a solid sophomore campaign by improving his numbers in pretty much every category—points, assists, rebounds, steals, turnovers, and mostly shooting percentage, from inside the arc, from three points, and from the stripe. In conference play, Cole hit a blistering 47% of his three point attempts, was second in assists (to Kahlil Felder) at 5.3 per game, and tied with Felder and Charlie Lee for the best assist/turnover ratio in the conference. Last year, with Perry, Belin, and Weber to handle the scoring, Cole still averaged 8.3 ppg. I think he's capable of putting quite a few more points on the board this year.

The rest of the lineup isn't nearly so impressive, but it's not so empty as some seem to think. For the #2 guard, Slocum can choose from Marcus "floats like a butterfly, stings at the Beeghly" Keene, or juco additions Osandai Vaughn and Shaun Stewart. Keene was a nice recruit for YSU out of Warren, Texas, a suburb of San Antonio, where he averaged 25 points as a senior, with his repeated late game heroics causing local papers to coin the phrase "Keenesanity!" His diminutive size (5'8" as a junior) made him available, and the fact that he grew a couple inches as a senior was icing on the cake. Keene started well, averaging over 10 points per game through November, including 20 against Massachusetts. But Keene's playing time was already dropping fast by the time he had his last big game, a 14 point effort at St. John's in late December. By late January, in the 5 games prior to punching out Weber, he had played just 33 minutes total, scoring 11 points. After the Weber incident, he was suspended for the season.

Given Keene's falling stock last season, I have to give the edge to one of the jucos, probably Stewart. Stewart signed with North Carolina A&T out of high school, and played in 12 games, averaging 1.9 points, as a freshman. That doesn't scream "Horizon League starter," but Stewart moved last season to Cloud (Ks.) CC, where he had a huge year, averaging 21.7 points and nearly 6 rebounds. Granted juco ain't D-I, but Stewart can score. Vaughn, however, is an option, too – he averaged over 19 ppg at Cape Fear CC last season. Jalon Plummer, a 6-5 sophomore from Romulus, is a deep option on the bench.

Meanwhile, look for Ferndale's Shawn Amiker, another one of Slocum's Michigan recruits, to start at the wing. Amiker is a slasher, a deadly finisher when he gets to the rim. He's not a three point shooter (just 8 attempts last season) and not an especially good ball handler. Amiker averaged under 6 points last season, but has shown the ability to score on occasion, with 20 and 25 point games last season.

At the other forward, Slocum is likely to go with one of two talented freshmen from Florida, 6-8, 200 lb. Bryce Nickels, or 6-7, 205 lb. Sidney Umude. Both players were recruiting coups for Slocum, and they would both see plenty of action even if Slocum had other options. Nickels chose YSU over offers from Georgia Tech and George Mason; Umude picked the Penguins over Murray State, Louisiana Tech, and a host of other mid-majors. ESPN rated them both as 3-star recruits. Nickels is a bit more polished and I think will get the starting role, but that will be decided in practice in the next few weeks. It wouldn't surprise me to see either perform at the level that Valpo's Alec Peters did last year, and that was quite good. (They are both more inside players than Peters, though). For bench help (or if it turns out both freshman flop), Slocum can call on senior Fletcher Larson, who averaged 12 minutes a game last season.

It's interesting to me how much this year's YSU and Oakland teams are alike. Each features a strong point guard (the league's top two last year in assists) and post player (#1 & 3 last year in rebounds, averaging 11 to 13 points). Each has an adequate veteran to put into the #3 slot. OU hopes St. John's transfer Matt Hooper will score from the shooting guard position; YSU has a couple of high scoring jucos it will try there. OU hopes at least one of the upperclassman forwards, McCune or Hill, will deliver, while YSU relies on a couple of well-regarded freshmen to fill that slot. Overall YSU is a bit weaker among the starters, but has a touch more depth.

In the end, I kinda like this YSU team, at least relative to most other observers. It's got lots of question marks, but pretty much every Horizon team does this year. I don't know if Slocum can get the offensive production he wants out of the jucos or Keene. I don't know if Umude or Nickels are ready to produce as freshmen. But at least Slocum has options. And if he's a bit thin up front, well, Slocum never goes deep into the bench anyway.

Wish Slocum luck and remember, somebody has to be the head basketball coach at Youngstown State: there but for the grace of God go you. Besides, if you can't wish good luck to a program that has never threatened anybody in the Horizon, who can you send off with well wishes?

Probable Starters
PG – 5-11 senior DJ Cole (8.3 ppg, 4.6 apg; .377 3P%)
SG – 6-0 junior Shaun Stewart (21.7 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 3.1 apg at Cloud CC)
SF – 6-5 senior Shawn Amiker (5.6 ppg, .611 FG%)
PF – 6-10 junior Bobby Hain (11.1 ppg, 7.7 rpg, .509 FG%)
PF - 6-8 freshman Bryce Nickels

Other Key Players
G – 5-11 sophomore Marcus Keene (6.5 ppg, 2.2 apg)
G – 6-4 sophomore Osandai Vaughn (19.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg at Cape Fear CC)
PF – 6-7 freshman Sidney Umude
PF/C – 6-8 senior Fletcher Larson (1.5 ppg, 1.5 rpg)

Does anyone have any further news or insight to Shane Hammink's situation? As noted in Commissioner's 2014-15 Team Previews:

QuoteStill up in the air is the fate of LSU transfer Shane Hammink, another tall (6-7) wing. Hammink, a junior from the Netherlands, averaged 11 minutes and started two games as a freshman but saw his time cut last year to just 120 minutes on the season. He is said to be seeking a waiver to play immediately but there is no word on that as we "go to press."

QuoteLSU spokesman Kent Lowe said they've been granted full releases, meaning they may transfer to the schools of their choice and in certain cases play as early as next season.  The 6-foot-7 Hammink, who is entering his junior year, has played in 47 games in his two years at LSU, averaging 1.6 points and 1.4 rebounds.

Is there any "word" on what is happening with this waiver request? 

It seems that Anthony Hickey was granted a waiver back in June to play at Oklahoma State.... was that because he was the higher profile player?  Or was it because his Dad cried foul in the Media?  Welcome to Stillwater, Anthony Hickey (http://blogs.theadvocate.com/fullcourtpress/2014/06/12/report-hickey-close-to-landing-with-oklahoma-state/) What riles me a little about this situation is that Hickey was most likely "run off" because of questionable behavior, having been suspended part of his sophomore year and also benched at the start of his Junior year.  So the "bad boy" high profile player gets the waiver and the two guys who just got "run off" because the coach wanted room on his roster have to, most likely, sit a year.  Speculation I know, but also based on perceived NCAA rulings history.

Detroit
2014: 6-10 (7th place) Horizon; 13-19 overall
Returns 74.1% of scoring (1st); 60.1% of rebounding (4th)

The Titans preview is always the hardest, because most readers are already pretty familiar with the Titans. I try to think of something to say that might be new to Titan fans. So I'll start this year with a little general talk about how much one should reasonable expect a team to improve. The Titans were, after all, just 13-19 last year, 6-10 in conference. While hopes are high this season, the Titans need to improve a lot just to contend. Leaving aside the particulars of this team, how likely is that?

These are the 25 biggest improvements in overall record, and then in conference play, in the Horizon since 2000:

Overall Improvement
1. Milwaukee 2014: 8-24 to 21-14: +11.5
2. Detroit 2010: 7-23 to 20-14: + 11
3. Cleveland State 2008: 10-21 to 21-13: + 9.5
3. Cleveland State 2011: 16-17 to 27-9: + 9.5
5. Loyola 2002: 7-21 to 17-13: + 9
6. Green Bay 2004: 10-20 to 17-11: + 8
6. UIC 2013: 8-22 to 17-15: + 8
8. Wright State 2007: 13-15 to 23-10: +7.5
8. Butler 2007: 20-13 to 29-7: +7.5
8. Wright State 2013: 13-19 to 21-12: + 7.5
8. Loyola 2013: 7-23 to 15-16: + 7.5
12. Green Bay 2014: 18-15 to 24-7: + 7
13. Wright State 2001: 11-17 to 18-11: +6.5
13. Milwaukee 2003: 16-13 to 24-8: + 6.5
13. Cleveland State 2005: 4-25 to 9-17: +6.5
13. Valparaiso 2011: 15-17 to 23-12: +6.5
13. Youngstown State 2012: 9-21 to 16-15: +6.5
13. Cleveland State 2014: 14-18 to 21-12: + 6.5
19. Milwaukee 2000: 8-19 to 15-14: +6
19. UIC 2002: 11-17 to 20-14: + 6
19. Loyola 2006: 13-17 to 19-11: +6
22. Milwaukee 2005: 20-11 to 26-6:+5.5
22. Youngstown State 2007: 7-21 to 14-17: + 5.5
22. Milwaukee 2008: 9-22 to 14-16: +5.5
22. Green Bay 2009: 15-15 to 22-11: +5.5
22. Valparaiso 2010: 9-22 to 15-17: +5.5

Improvement in Conference Play
1. Cleveland State 2008: 3-13 to 12-6: +8
1. Youngstown State 2012: 2-16 to 10-8: +8
3. Green Bay 2004: 4-12 to 11-5: +7
3. Detroit 2010: 2-16 to 9-9: +7
3. Cleveland State 2014: 5-11 to 12-4: + 7
6. Loyola 2002: 2-12 to 9-7: + 6
6. Wright State 2004: 4-12 to 10-6: +6
6. Cleveland State 2005: 0-16 to 6-10: +6
9. Wright State 2007: 8-8 to 13-3: +5
9. Valparaiso 2010: 5-13 to 10-8: +5
9. UIC 2013: 3-15 to 7-9: + 5
9. Loyola 2013: 1-17 to 5-11: + 5
13. Loyola 2005: 4-12 to 8-8: +4
13. Butler 2006: 7-9 to 11-5: +4
13. Green Bay 2009: 9-9 to 13-5: +4
13. Wright State 2013: 7-11 to 10-6: + 4
13. Green Bay 2014: 10-6 to 14-2: + 4
13. Milwaukee 2014: 3-13 to 7-9: + 4
19. Cleveland State 2000: 6-8 to 9-5: +3
19. UIC 2000: 2-12 to 5-9: +3
19. Milwaukee 2002: 7-7 to 11-5: +3
19. Youngstown State 2007: 4-12 to 7-9: +3
19. Butler 2010: 15-3 to 18-0: +3
19. Milwaukee 2011: 10-8 to 13-5: +3
19. Cleveland State 2011: 10-8 to 13-5: +3

Some observations:
•   Combining the two lists, there are 34 teams total, or about 2 teams a year that improve by at least 5.5 games overall or 3 games in conference play. About half those teams had records better than last year's Titans in the year before their improvement.
•   That means that there are 17 teams - just over one per season - that improved by both 5.5 games overall and 3 games in conference in one year.
•   A three game improvement in conference would put the Titans at just 9-9. A five and a half game overall improvement would leave the Titans at 19-14 on the season. While obviously the Titans could be better, that latter number strikes me as a pretty realistic top assessment. I do think the Titans could be 4-5 games better in conference play.
•   No team appears on a list in consecutive years, except for Valpo, which went from 9-22 overall in 2009 to 15-17 in 2010 and to 23-12 in 2011. That bodes poorly for those hoping for better records from Milwaukee, Cleveland State, and Green Bay, which each appeared on both lists last season. Of course, Green Bay doesn't need to get better to win it all.
•   Of 23 teams that improved by more than 5 games overall between 2000 and 2013, only 8 improved at all the following season. The biggest such improvement was 6.5 games by Valpo in 2011. Cleveland State improved by 3.5 games in 2009; UIC by 3 games in 2003; Milwaukee by 2.5 games in 2009; Butler by 2 games in 2008; Loyola by 1 game in 2007; YSU in 2013 and Milwaukee in 2001 by just half a game.
•   Of 22 teams that improved by 3 or more games in conference play, only four -Valpo in 2011, Butler in 2007, Milwaukee in 2003 (all two games better), and Detroit in 2010 (+1) improved again the next season. Recognizing that each team is different, these last three bullets are more reasons I am not high on Milwaukee this year. Teams that improve as Milwaukee did last year rarely improve their record again the next season.
•   Improvement of 5 or more games in conference, the minimum I think the Titans would need to have a shot at the regular season title, has occurred on average two to three times every 3 years (12 times in 15 years total). It happened once last year, twice in 2013, and once in 2012.
•   In the 8 seasons included in which the league has had 9 teams playing 16 conference games, the league champ has averaged 13 wins. Reaching 13 conference wins would require a 7 game improvement, which has occurred just 5 times in the 15 years – but three times in the last five seasons.
•   The Titans would need to improve by 7 wins overall, or a minimum of 6.5 games, to get to 20 wins. That has happened 18 times in the 15 seasons, but 5 times in the last two seasons.

Sum that all up, it seems likely but by no means certain that one Horizon team will probably put up that type of 3 game improvement in conference, and 7 games overall, in 2015. If I were to name the Horizon team most likely to show that type of improvement, it would have to be Detroit, probably followed by Valpo. So that's good. But for the Titans to be that team, several players will have to step up.

Detroit loses 4 seniors from last year's 7th place team, including its top two rebounders. The most important loss is forward Evan Bruinsma (12.5 points, 7.7 rebounds). Center Ugochukwu Njoku was also a contributor this year, averaging just 4.1 points but 5.8 rebounds. Jermaine Lippert started a few games but averaged just 9 minutes and 1.8 points per game, and Olumide Solanke rarely played. You can see from Bruinsma's and Njoku's numbers that the Titans have a lot of rebounding to replace, and Bruinsma was the team's only reliable scorer after Juwan Howard. But I was a bit surprised to see, when I calculated the figures, that the Titans actually have a higher percentage of scoring returning than any other Horizon team (and a lot more than any team except Green Bay), and a higher combined scoring/rebounding percentage than any team except for Green Bay. And the Titans have as much incoming talent as any team in the league. This explains why most preseason publications are slating the Titans for the top 4 in the league (six of eight so far have placed the Titans 3rd or 4th).

But the Titans' talent does not configure neatly. Detroit has a slew of combo guards, guard/forwards, and forward/guards, but no classic point guard and not much bulk in the front line. Both a look at the roster, and the word filtering out of Titans practices suggest that Detroit is aiming to play a fast, run and gun style that takes advantage of their raw talent and the squad's depth. But such small teams typically rely on high shooting percentages to make it work, and Detroit was not a good shooting team last year, finishing dead last in the Horizon in three point shooting and overall shooting percentage, and ahead only of last place UIC in 2 point shooting percentage. Furthermore, UD's highest percentage shooters were the graduates Lippert, Njoku, and Bruinsma. And Coach Ray McCallum has tended to favor teams with a more classic lineup, including a big, true center when possible- I don't know if he's ever really had the small, run and shoot team. In the end, the Titans probably have the least predictable lineup in the Horizon, and it will be a challenge for the coaches to find the right mix from a talented bunch.

The Titans got a little head start on finding the right mix with a 4-game trip to Canada this summer, where the Titans won all 4 games, if not with ease, then without a great deal of drama. The Titans experimented with numerous lineups on the trip so it didn't give us a huge idea of what the coaches might be thinking, beyond our own observations of who did what.

The one given for the Titans is Juwan Howard, who averaged 18.3 points last season. Howard is the only player who is among the top 10 returning conference players in points, rebounds, and assists per game. He and Green Bay's Jordan Fouse are the only two among the top 10 returning players in both blocks and steals. After Kiefer Sykes, Howard is the leading preseason contender for Player of the Year. He's the rock, and a good one to build around.

The Titans' other returning starters are sophomore guards Jarod Williams and Matthew Grant. Entering the season, I rank Williams as the surest things on the Titans after Howard. Williams cracked the starting lineup 4 games in to last season, and went on to be selected to the Horizon All-Freshman team. Watching the Titans' Canada games on TV, I thought Williams looked especially good. He seemed confident that he could do what he wanted to do when he wanted to do it, and asserted himself as the team's floor general. Williams averaged 12.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 4.3 assists on the trip, while shooting 57% from the floor. His running mate Grant moved into the starting lineup midway through last season, giving the Titans a starting backcourt of true freshmen for the first time in over 30 years. He is the Titans top returning scorer (7.9 ppg) after Howard.

I won't be at all surprised, however, if junior Carlton Brundidge gets the nod to start with Williams. A top 100 recruit in high school, "CB" fell behind Trey Burke at Michigan, and then transferred to Detroit after his freshman year. Last year CB's season went through three stages. Through the Titans first 8 games, CB averaged 10.9 ppg, but he took over 10 shots a game to do it, hitting just 35% from the floor. I'm not a big fan of pop psychiatry, but during this period, my impression was that CB was pressing, putting too much pressure on himself to pick of the slack for the semi-expected early departure of Ray McCallum and the unexpected early departure of Jason Calliste, and perhaps to prove himself as that "top 100" recruit who had signed with Michigan. After that, although CB stayed in the starting lineup a few more games, his minutes were cut and he entered phase two of the season. Over the next 15 games, he seemed totally out of sorts, uncertain and tentative. He shot a lot less, and averaged just 5.6 points per game, shooting under 33% and having his four highest turnover games of the season. During the last 5 games of this phase, he scored a total of just 15 points on 6 of 24 shooting. This phase ended against UIC, when he scored 2 points in a season low 11 minutes of action. Two nights later CB scored 15 points in an 86-78 loss to Cleveland State, launching the final segment of his season. Over the final 9 games, CB averaged 9 points on fewer than 6 shots per game, hitting 52% from the field. He also knocked down his last 18 free throw attempts of the season. This strong finish, and his new slimmed down look, gives me hope Carlton has his groove back. Brundidge does most of his damage driving through traffic in the lane, but to do that effectively he needs to connect on a higher percentage of three pointers (.286 last year). Otherwise defenders back a half step off him and Brundidge's first step is not quick enough to pass that first man. He also needs to hit free throws – he gets to the line far more than the other Titan guards, but until his late spurt, his free throw percentage last season was hovering below 60 percent. Whoever starts at the 2-guard, both Grant and Brundidge will get major minutes.

To go with the three combo guards, the Titans have a slew of #2/#3 players. Senior Brandan Kearney was a national top-150 recruit out of high school. His defense helped him break into Michigan State's rotation late in his freshman season. As a sophomore, he was averaging 17 minutes a game, but was apparently dissatisfied with his lack of an offensive role and decided to transfer mid-season. But as I've noted elsewhere, the mid-season transfer is a tough move – you come in when everybody else has been playing in games for 6 weeks, putting you a step behind, and by the time the rust is off the season is almost over. Kearney joined Arizona State last December but averaged just 6 minutes a game, in part due to the surprisingly strong play of freshman Egor Koulechov and juco transfer (and brief Titan verbal commit) Shaq McKissic. Disillusioned, Kearney returned to Detroit. At 6-6, with a good three point shot and enough ball-handling ability to play the point in a pinch, Kearney could be a match-up nightmare in the Horizon. But mainly, expect Kearney to be called on to shut down the other big shooting guards/wings in the league, such as OU's Max Hooper, Wright State's Joe Thomasson, and Milwaukee's Austin Arians.

Red shirt freshman Paris Bass is a 6-7 G/F with a 7 foot wingspan, who handles the ball well enough there's been some talk of him playing the point (though that is unlikely). Bass was considered a run-of-the-mill mid-major prospect as his senior year began, but he just kept growing as a senior and began dominating play in the spring semester. Still, it was thought that Bass, who was young for the Class of '13, would likely go prep for a year to fill out his gangly frame and make sure his academics were in order. A big summer on the AAU circuit brought him a bunch of offers, including high mid-majors such as Rhode Island and Illinois State, and had high majors including UConn and Memphis eyeing him for their class of 2014. The word among mid-majors was to get him in 2013, because if he went prep for a year, he'd have high majors all over him for 2014. Detroit got him, but he ended up redshirting anyway. He'll be good. The Sporting News has predicted him as Horizon Freshman of the Year. Of course TSN has also predicted the Titans to finish 8th, far and away the worst of any publication so far – so take the bitter with the sweet.

Also available is 6-5 junior Anton Wilson, who averaged 7 points per game last season while hitting 40% of his three-point attempts. Wilson was at one time a Rivals 150 recruit in high school, though his stock dropped as a senior. He's a streak shooter, and how much he plays this year will depend on him knocking down the shots. When he's on, he's got a beautiful stroke. In December 6-7 Colorado transfer Chris Jenkins joins the Titans. Jenkins was red-shirted as a freshman, and then enrolled in school for a few days last fall before deciding to transfer. The result of those few fall classes in Boulder was to cost Jenkins a semester of eligibility – his transfer sit out year didn't begin until spring semester. Jenkins was a first team All-Stater and a three star recruit at UD Jesuit high, but by the time he's eligible in December it will be two and a half years without playing in regular season games. The staff is said to be very high on Jenkins, but we'll say it again – that mid-season transfer is tough, and it will likely take Jenkins a while to reach his stride.

For classic forwards, besides Howard, the Titans have 6-6, 223 lb. senior Patick Onwenu, who averaged 4.3 points and 4 rebounds last season. Onwenu was very impressive in Canada, averaging 15.5 points, 6 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks in under 20 minutes per game, while shooting 57%. The Titans also landed both of Michigan's 2014 first team Class A All-State forwards this year in 6-6, 231 lb. Aaron Foster Smith (23 points and 12 rebounds at Taylor Truman) and 6-6 242 lb. Jaleel Hogan (16.8 points, 13.6 rebounds at Mt. Pleasant). Both will have a chance to earn minutes right away. Foster-Smith has generally been a slightly higher rated prospect, but Hogan's bulk may get him more playing time as a frosh. If Hogan played more above the rim, he'd be at Michigan State. Foster-Smith has a complete game.

Finally, the Titans have two skinny centers who should both get playing time. Patrick Ackerman is a 6-10 transfer from Penn State. Ackerman is tall but thin - he'll not provide a strong low post presence. 6-9 Youssoupha Kane joins the Titans from Western Nebraska CC, where he averaged 10 points and 8 rebounds. While both should get minutes, the Titans will often not have a center on the floor.

On paper, the talent is there, but most of these guys have not yet lived up to the scouting reports. Kearney, Wilson, and Brundidge were all Rivals 150 players in high school, but have yet to establish themselves as more than adequate bench players. Ackerman played just 83 minutes in two seasons at Penn State; Jenkins not at all in one at Colorado. I wouldn't be surprised if the freshmen forwards get 10 or minutes a game this year, but I wouldn't expect it. The redshirt frosh Bass will get PT, but we'll have to see what he does with it. Onwenu probably won a starting spot with his performance in Canada, but he's going to be asked to do quite a bit more than he's done in the past.

For the Titans to make major improvement, the guards need to shoot better, especially from behind the arc. Brundidge actually has the 7th highest shooting percentage in conference play of returning Horizon players, but he shot just 28.6% from behind the line on the season. Grant, whose three point shot was supposed to be a strength, hit just 30.8% of the three-point attempts, and Williams was a dismal 24.5%. All three shot even worse on threes in conference play.

The Titans have players who will cause a lot of match up problems; they shoot free throws well; they have depth; they have Juwan Howard. Whether that's enough to contend we will have to see. For now, put them in that mosh of teams (with Valpo, Oakland, Milwaukee, and Wright State) who will contend for spots 3-7 in the conference standings, with the Titans more likely near the top of that group.

Likely Starters:
G - 6-2 soph Jarod Williams (7.7 points, 2.0 assists)
G - 6-2 junior Carlton Brundidge (7.5 ppg).
F - 6-6 senior Juwan Howard (18.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, .344 3P%; 83.9% FT)
F – 6-6 senior Patrick Onwenu (4.3 ppg, 4 rpg)
C - 6-10 junior Patrick Ackerman (transfer, Penn State)

Other Key Players
G – 6-1 soph Matthew Grant (7.9 points)
G/F – 6-7 RS freshman Paris Bass
G – 6-6 senior Brandan Kearney (1.2 ppg at Arizona State)
G/F – 6-7 RS sophomore Chris Jenkins (transfer, Colorado)
G/F – 6-5 junior Anton Wilson (7.0 ppg; 40.2% 3P%)

Man, their roster is a beautiful mess.

Excellent point about expected improvement, year over year.  It's simply not realistic to peg your team to win 10-12 more games, almost no matter who you are. 

It'd be interesting to see the flip side...how much worse were people able to get? :/

Some schlub finally finished his preview: http://www.midmajormadness.com/horizon-league/2014/11/5/6998415/2014-2015-horizon-league-preview (http://www.midmajormadness.com/horizon-league/2014/11/5/6998415/2014-2015-horizon-league-preview)

Quote from: Kyle321n on November 05, 2014, 03:53:26 PM
Some schlub finally finished his preview: http://www.midmajormadness.com/horizon-league/2014/11/5/6998415/2014-2015-horizon-league-preview (http://www.midmajormadness.com/horizon-league/2014/11/5/6998415/2014-2015-horizon-league-preview)

You Rock!


(http://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--JItSDAsa--/mgfp9g49ktpoacxz7bar.jpg)

Quote from: Kyle321n on November 05, 2014, 03:53:26 PM
Some schlub finally finished his preview: http://www.midmajormadness.com/horizon-league/2014/11/5/6998415/2014-2015-horizon-league-preview (http://www.midmajormadness.com/horizon-league/2014/11/5/6998415/2014-2015-horizon-league-preview)

It will be interesting to see which hairstyle Matt Tiby starts the season and which hairstyle he ends it with.



(http://dy.snimg.com/story-image/0/0/193347/193347-650-366.jpg)   (http://pantheru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/group1.png)

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/college/2014/11/11/oakland-prove-naysayers-wrong-tougher-horizon/18864987/ (http://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/college/2014/11/11/oakland-prove-naysayers-wrong-tougher-horizon/18864987/)

Quote"This schedule is like none we've ever had," Kampe said. "We play six consecutive games at home (Nov. 19-Dec. 3) early and then we go on the road.

...whose fault is that?...I wonder...

QuoteThis season Kampe expects Felder to average 18 to 20 points along with 6-7 assists and Petros to average a double double.

We'll ask VU fans about the over/under on that.

QuoteKampe said he wants Hooper to attempt about 10 3s a game.

Good luck with that.

Although "Max Hooper" has got to be one of the all-time best b-ball names.  (Sorry, Artis Cleveland.)

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/college/2014/11/11/detroit-mercy-preview-howard-jr-makes-titans-tick/18872145/ (http://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/college/2014/11/11/detroit-mercy-preview-howard-jr-makes-titans-tick/18872145/)

nothing really interesting here.  was going to say "kind of like the team itself!" but, hey, JHJr last year.  still ouch.

I didn't think this deserved it own thread so I put it here with other previews. From the Indy Star. The Star recently laid off about 1/3 of their staff so the coverage will not be getting better for sure.

Valparaiso

Last year: 18-16 (9-7 in Horizon League)

Skinny: Bryce Drew's fourth season as head coach will be in pursuit of the program's fifth straight winning season, but the loss of four seniors is a big ask. One of the projected replacements, guard Lexus Williams, suffered a season-ending knee injury in the summer. Forward Alec Peters led the team in scoring 12 times last season, was Valpo's highest-scoring freshman in 15 years (12.7 points) and was named to the Horizon's All-Freshman team. In an eight-day stretch, Crusaders host New Mexico (Dec. 6) and Ball State (Dec. 13).

Follow Curt Cavin on Twitter at @curtcavin.

http://www.indystar.com/story/sports/2014/11/12/state-college-basketball-preview-iupui-poised-improvement/18908823/ (http://www.indystar.com/story/sports/2014/11/12/state-college-basketball-preview-iupui-poised-improvement/18908823/)

Oh yes, someone who's twitter profile list Auto Racing first then "other sports" second. I'm trusting his judgement  :P

Quote from: Kyle321n on November 12, 2014, 02:14:13 PM
Oh yes, someone who's twitter profile list Auto Racing first then "other sports" second. I'm trusting his judgement  :P

Because it is publicity for the way Valpo is perceived through out the rest of the state, it is worth taking a look see. If for no other reason than to see what is not getting written about VU.

Quote from: bbtds on November 12, 2014, 03:05:19 PM

Quote from: Kyle321n on November 12, 2014, 02:14:13 PM
Oh yes, someone who's twitter profile list Auto Racing first then "other sports" second. I'm trusting his judgement  :P

Because it is publicity for the way Valpo is perceived through out the rest of the state, it is worth taking a look see. If for no other reason than to see what is not getting written about VU.

I'm not knocking you. I'm just saying I'm going to take his word with a grain of salt. Saying that the loss of 4 seniors is a "big loss" is terrible reporting since 3 of those seniors weren't starters. Hell by the end of the season Coleman hardly played and with Nickerson coming in I think that's an upgrade. Losing Bobby and Moussa will hurt depth, but if Vashil and Jubril step up like we hope they do then the depth loss won't show as bad. Dority is the only one I'm really concerned about losing when you couple it with Lexus's injury. The way that's written makes is sound like we're in for a losing season. If we are under 20 wins this season it's a disappointment. If we're under .500 then it's pretty much a disaster of a season.

Quote from: Kyle321n on November 12, 2014, 03:10:40 PMSaying that the loss of 4 seniors is a "big loss" is terrible reporting since 3 of those seniors weren't starters.

A "big loss" would have made more sense.  A "big ask" is...is not English.

That's how people make a big ask of themselves.

I'm almost certain that Curt Cavin was handed the assignment to write the preview, even if he doesn't know a thing about Horizon League basketball since Butler left. It's what newspapers are doing these days, even if we like it or not.

My local interest in UW-Milwaukee basketball has decided to red-shirt this season. Brock Stull, a 6-7 forward from Rockford, IL, decided to red-shirt this season with the Panthers because he wants to go to the postseason in his four years of eligibility, and since the Panthers can't go this season, he's holding out on being in Panther lineups until 2015-16. In some ways, I think this would be a good move for him, but then I wish the NCAA would also recruits that have signed NLIs to be able to go to another school with immediate eligibility if the original school was deemed ineligible for postseason play due to not meeting the APR.

Quote from: valporun on November 12, 2014, 05:47:03 PMI wish the NCAA would also recruits that have signed NLIs to be able to go to another school with immediate eligibility if the original school was deemed ineligible for postseason play due to not meeting the APR.

That's a great point, although...I wonder how Brock's teammates feel about him sitting himself out a year.

(on second thought...probably the same way the Greeks felt about Achilles in the Iliad until Patroclus' going down brought him off the DL.)

#theValpoDifference

Part of me thinks that Stull would have had a difficult time cracking the lineup. Redshirting is probably the best idea for him to gain some muscle mass and body for the inside. He was tall in high school, quick for his height, but had no body to him. I'm sure most of his teammates aren't worried about him.