Teams on the Horizon League's horizon

[classof2014]

So I have noticed that many people have been discussing possible teams that we might want in the HL in the next year or two. So I cam up with a system that would rank teams that I thought were within reason. They were ranked in 1 through 21, with 1 being the best score and 21 the worst. These are only their ranking, not their actual numbers. This took quite a while for me to do. For example since Oakland was only 25 miles from Detroit they were given a ranking of 1 because they were the closest school to another HL school, while ORU was the furthest away, so they were ranked number 21 in that respect, same goes for win%* and NCAA/NIT appearances, which are both since the 2003-04 season. For Northern Kentucky, South Dakota State, North Dakota State, South Dakota, and North Dakota, they've all played time in DII during the previous 10 years, so I did not count those seasons as a part of their totals.

So, debate since I know there is a lot to debate about. What team(s) do you want to see in the HL and which teams would you not? And what are your general thoughts to the hopeful HL expansion?


Rank   Team
1   Robert Morris
2   Belmont
3   Oakland
4   Murray State
5   Niagara
6   Eastern Kentucky
7   Oral Roberts
9   Austin Peay
9   Morehead State
10   IUPUI
11   North Dakota St
12   South Dakota St
13   Northern Kentucky
14   IPFW
15   Tenn. Tech
16   Canisius
18   Tenn. Martin
18   Tenn. State
19   South Dakota
19   Western Illinois
21   North Dakota

[a3uge]

Awesome. Only gripe is that winning percentage doesn't take into account SOS, whereas RPI would. I think there an old thread where someone calculated rolling 4 year average rpi of each team.

I like ranking via geography... But what about adding stadium size and athletic spending? And then you could mash into the formula endowment, number of athletic teams weighted by importance, existence of a track, hotness of their volleyball team, number of athletic director scandals, aesthetics of their mascot head, number of basketball players who pound their chest after baskets... and then you'd end up with probably a list that looks similar to what you got anyways.


So if I were the Horizon League commissioner...

Move south 1. Murray State 2. Belmont
If not move out east 3. Robert Morris 4. Oakland. Have a feeling we're going to be stuck at 9 for awhile.

[wh]

Whatever 2 schools someone chooses, at least 1 has to have baseball or we lose our automatic bid. 

Maybe an asterisk by the name denoting baseball? 

[VULB#62]

Teams w/ Baseball in Bold

Rank   Team
1   Robert Morris
2   Belmont
3   Oakland
4   Murray State
5   Niagara
6   Eastern Kentucky
7   Oral Roberts
9   Austin Peay
9   Morehead State
10   IUPUI
11   North Dakota St
12   South Dakota St
13   Northern Kentucky
14   IPFW
15   Tenn. Tech
16   Canisius
18   Tenn. Martin
18   Tenn. State
19   South Dakota
19   Western Illinois
21   North Dakota

[classof2014]

I created a chart that encompasses every team that falls within our demographic. This stretches from Western New York to Tulsa OK. I ranked the teams based on three different criteria. 1.) Distance in miles from the closest HL team, 2.) Win percentage over the past 10 seasons*, 3.) NCAA/NIT tournament appearances over the past 10 seasons. What I did was ranked each team in each category from 1 through 21, with 1 being the highest score. If Oakland for example, they were only 25 miles from Detroit, so they were ranked #1 in that category, while for win% and ncaa/nit appearance they were ranked 7 & 9 respectively. So, they had an average score of 5.6, which came in third place overall.

*Northern Kentucky, South Dakota State, North Dakota, South Dakota State, & North Dakota, played in DII at one point over the past 10 seasons, thus those records were not included in the 10 year win percentage.


if you click it, it'll open up nicely

[vu72]

Very interesting and nicely done.  It leads us back to where we've been (wish list wise) for some time now.

[valpotx]

Where do you get the information that Oakland only has 2,800 students?  They have around 20,000 students per below.  I thought that you might be referring to the arena size at first, but then saw that you have IUPUI as 14,000, so it had to be students.  This goes for a few others you have listed as well (WIU, ORU, etc).  It is almost like you went back and forth between stadium size and student population?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oakland_University

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Illinois_University

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oral_Roberts_University

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiana_University_%E2%80%93_Purdue_University_Indianapolis

[valpopal]

Below is LeCrone's official statement in response to Loyola departure. As usual, its passive tone doesn't inspire confidence.

INDIANAPOLIS -- A statement from Horizon League Commissioner Jon LeCrone regarding Loyola University Chicago:

"Last week, Loyola University Chicago informed the Horizon League board of its intention to withdraw from the Horizon League and accept an invitation to join the Missouri Valley Conference, effective with the 2013-14 season.

"Board members and I were in close contact with Loyola officials and the Missouri Valley Conference administration throughout the decision-making process. We thank Loyola for its many years of commitment to the progress of the Horizon League and wish Loyola and its teams, coaches and student-athletes the best as they move to the Valley.

"The Horizon League will continue to seek collaborative opportunities with its conference peers during this time of uncertainty in intercollegiate athletics. We will also continue to work proactively and aggressively on our internal and external growth plans."

[valpotx]

Any mention of whether or not their softball team gets to compete for an NCAA bid?  You would have to think that they would not be allowed to, since Butler was not given that opportunity.

[classof2014]

Where do you get the information that Oakland only has 2,800 students?  They have around 20,000 students per below.  I thought that you might be referring to the arena size at first, but then saw that you have IUPUI as 14,000, so it had to be students.  This goes for a few others you have listed as well (WIU, ORU, etc).  It is almost like you went back and forth between stadium size and student population?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oakland_University

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Illinois_University

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oral_Roberts_University

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiana_University_%E2%80%93_Purdue_University_Indianapolis

I used wikipedia, somehow must've missed a screwed up on a couple... not sure how that happened. Not too big of a deal, I didn't include size of school in with the calculations portion.

[Valposter]

Below is LeCrone's official statement in response to Loyola departure. As usual, its passive tone doesn't inspire confidence.

INDIANAPOLIS -- A statement from Horizon League Commissioner Jon LeCrone regarding Loyola University Chicago:

"Last week, Loyola University Chicago informed the Horizon League board of its intention to withdraw from the Horizon League and accept an invitation to join the Missouri Valley Conference, effective with the 2013-14 season.
U
"Board members and I were in close contact with Loyola officials and the Missouri Valley Conference administration throughout the decision-making process. We thank Loyola for its many years of commitment to the progress of the Horizon League and wish Loyola and its teams, coaches and student-athletes the best as they move to the Valley.

"The Horizon League will continue to seek collaborative opportunities with its conference peers during this time of uncertainty in intercollegiate athletics. We will also continue to work proactively and aggressively on our internal and external growth plans."

Well, glad to hear he is going to act proactively and aggressively.  I'll believe it when I see it.  I'm guessing July comes and goes with no new members announced. 

[Valposter]

Proactive?  I would settle for reactive.  All we seem to get from the HL office is inactive.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

This is such a great idea that I wish I had thought of it first.

A couple suggestions for additions to your spreadsheet?  A column denoting public/private (though it seems obvious it isn't always, plus it is important to a lot of people on here it seems), a column for average attendance, and for RPI averages?

I'd be happy to help with assimilation of data since it's easy for anyone to suggest work for someone else

[Valpo71]

Unless there is an announcement by the middle of next week, the Horizon League will, beginning in 72 days, operate with eight teams next year.  What is the League holding out for, or why are teams not interesting in joining us?  It looks like an additional Division III or NAIA team on next year's schedule.

[classof2014]

Here is the updated version. I fixed the school size and I added rpi (past 10 seasons)* as a variable, attendance I could not think of a way to normalize, since it some schools are larger, or are in a larger city, or play in a larger arena, or a large school that plays in a small arena, or has played in another arena throughout the year, and it was still considered a home game (IUPUI playing in the Canseco Fieldhouse). So there were just too many parameters but rpi I added as a part of the function.

*Schools that played in DII did not have rpis for that season, Northern Kentucky had zero rpi rankins over past 10 seasons, so they were given a rank of 21.


CLICK!

[a3uge]

Here is the updated version. I fixed the school size and I added rpi (past 10 seasons)* as a variable, attendance I could not think of a way to normalize, since it some schools are larger, or are in a larger city, or play in a larger arena, or a large school that plays in a small arena, or has played in another arena throughout the year, and it was still considered a home game (IUPUI playing in the Canseco Fieldhouse). So there were just too many parameters but rpi I added as a part of the function.

*Schools that played in DII did not have rpis for that season, Northern Kentucky had zero rpi rankins over past 10 seasons, so they were given a rank of 21.


CLICK!

Awesome... wondering if RPI/winning percentage reaches too far back. Robert Morris has been improving since 10 years ago, which they were terrible. They've turned into a program that hadn't broken 200 RPI from 2000-2007, but since the 2007 season they've had 5 20+ win seasons. There should be more merit in the RPI/winning percentage of the last 5 years, and wondering if you could do something like average the 10 year and 5 year numbers.

http://www.collegerpi.com/subs/cgi/tmrpihist.cgi?T184

[classof2014]

Awesome... wondering if RPI/winning percentage reaches too far back. Robert Morris has been improving since 10 years ago, which they were terrible. They've turned into a program that hadn't broken 200 RPI from 2000-2007, but since the 2007 season they've had 5 20+ win seasons. There should be more merit in the RPI/winning percentage of the last 5 years, and wondering if you could do something like average the 10 year and 5 year numbers.

Probably could've but it all seemed to even itself out anyways. I wanted to include history since people will look pretty far back so I felt 10 was a good cutoff, it might give the team a chance who had 2 or 3 down years over the past 5 but the previous 5 they were really good. I might just slash the years in half to see what the results are but the top 10 will probably stay just about the same.

[wh]

Proactive?  I would settle for reactive.  All we seem to get from the HL office is inactive.

Very well put...

[blackpantheruwm]

Proactive?  I would settle for reactive.  All we seem to get from the HL office is inactive.

I got texted/called by three different people saying "Did you see the Valpo board? Best quote ever."

Well done.

[Valposter]

Proactive?  I would settle for reactive.  All we seem to get from the HL office is inactive.

I got texted/called by three different people saying "Did you see the Valpo board? Best quote ever."

Well done.

Thanks  blackpantheruwm and wh.........just keeping it real and calling 'em as we see 'em.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Not to make more work, 2014, but could you also show your raw data?  I understand that Belmont has the #1 RPI and postseason appearances in the chart, but I don't know what that number is, so as to compare it to schools currently in the HL as well.

Also, generally when ties are made, everyone ties at the highest possible number, not the lowest (looking at all the 21s in your NCAA/NIT line); not doing so will artificially deflate everyone with such a number and spoil comparisons.  E.g.:

1)  Valpo 27
t2)  UIC 21
t2)  Loyola 21
t4)  UWGB 19
t4)  UWM 19
t4)  WSU 19
t7)  Detroit 7
t7)  Oakland 7
t7)  CSU 7

not
1)  Valpo 27
t2)  UIC 21
t2)  Loyola 21
t4)  UWGB 19
t4)  UWM 19
t4)  WSU 19
t9)  Detroit 7
t9)  Oakland 7
t9)  CSU 7

That said, thank you for updating it--this is quite instructive.

[historyman]

Could you give it some nice pretty colors too.   

[LaPorteAveApostle]

AAAAAAAAAAAAAND

A SHRUBBERY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[covufan]

Proactive?  I would settle for reactive.  All we seem to get from the HL office is inactive.

Very well put...

Been away for a few days.  Indeed, very well put!

[Western4Life]

I have been reading for a while about the HL's need for new additions.

Oakland makes too much sense not to invite. However, do Valpo fans really think UIPUI and IPFW are better than WIU? None are elite but really? We are projected below both when we have higher attendance than both combined and a far better overall program currently. WIU would be an ideal fit because of so many reasons. Sadly I don't feel consideration will be given. Replace an IL school with an IL school. Keep travel simple with WIU. Football would be fine considering we are patched into the MVFC already (like YSU). Baseball at Western has a new coach and should see improvement. Soccer is competitive, a new field house will fix track/cc & tennis issues.

Western has a capital campaign that will put over 15 million into the football stadium renovation (completion finally) in the next year or two. It is already slated that a new arena for basketball will be built in the next capital drive (2020 roughly). Playing on campus this year whilst competitive we had a very solid number of people showing up.

Come on' I freaking miss the Valpo games. I know we both have bigger and more traditional rivals but seeing the Crusaders in Macomb again would do me some good.

Keep the possible additions logical. Murray St. can't move football so they are a no. UNK is promising. Robert Morris won't love the travel included and I dare say all schools need to bring things a little closer to home (travel for students is way out of line IMO). XDSU are great competition and such but horrible locations to travel too. Just a fair warning.

I hope Western can get in on this conversation a little bit more. With a more reasonable conference affiliation recruiting etc will be so much easier. I just don't see the SL making it through all of this. Honestly, I don't even seen Valpo staying in the HL, as soon as the MVC knows they can't get SLU/Dayton expect a call with UIC or Belmont.