Opponents Non Conference Schedule

[oklahomamick]

I hear you and we'll said. 


Does their program need the big paydays?  Maybe the university needs it to keep not only the bball team afloat but all athletic programs.  Although they should be saving a lot of money in travel compared to the summit league days. 



Let's send this to oakland's AD and kempe.  At least copy and paste it to their fan forum. 

[EddieCabot]

The league office needs to force Oakland to quit prostituting itself for $85,000 paydays and get on board with the rest of the league.       

Speaking of which, has anyone heard from LeCrone lately?  He's been very quiet, especially when it comes to important topics like scheduling and league expansion.

On a side note, are we still sure that adding Oakland to replace Loyola was a net positive for the league? 

[valpo64]

wh you hit the nail on the head..."King Kampe" and his ego just seem to get in the way...I too am tired of hearing every interview or comment about him include the comment about scheduling the "big" programs to prepare his team for the conference schedule.  His record in the Horizon speaks clearly of the success, or should we say lack of success, his approach has done for his program.   His problem is that he is his biggest fan.

[historyman]

Speaking of which, has anyone heard from LeCrone lately?  He's been very quiet, especially when it comes to important topics like scheduling and league expansion.

Shhhhh! I hav twoo bwe wery kwiet. I'm hwunting gwolden gwizzlies.

[Kyle321n]

There's 3 more D1 non-con games left, but since our non-con is done let's break down the rest of the league's schedule. I'll be using KenPom's rankings for this because I like them best (obviously)

#42 Green Bay (10-3)
Average Opponent: 158
Average Win: 169
Average Loss: 67 (4, 68 and 129)
Best Win: #68 Georgia State (Home)
Worst Lost: #129 UC Irvine (Neutral/Las Vegas)
Remaining: Wed, vs 343 Chicago St.

#77 Valparaiso (13-2)
Average Opponent: 202
Average Win: 216.6
Average Loss: 130.5 (89 and 172)
Best Win: #91 Eastern Kentucky (Away)
Worst Lost: #172 Missouri (Away)

#135 Cleveland St. (6-8)
Average Opponent: 156.4 (3 teams in the top 20 are lifting this up)
Average Win: 252.5 (1 win over a sub-200 team)
Average Loss: 108.3
Best Win: #136 San Francisco (Home)
Worst Lost: #324 Savannah St. (Away)

#147 Wright St. (8-6)
Average Opponent: 164.4
Average Win: 189.5
Average Loss: 139.3
Best Win: #124 Belmont x2 (Home/Away)
Worst Lost: #245 Cal St. Fullerton (Neutral, Spartanburg NC)

#159 Detroit (6-7)
Average Opponent: 139
Average Win: 219.5
Average Loss: 93
Best Win: #96 Toledo (Away)
Worst Lost: #275 UCF (Away)
Remaining: Tue, vs 203 Oral Roberts

#202 Oakland (4-10)
Average Opponent: 115.2
Average Win: 222
Average Loss: 83.2
Best Win: #96 Toledo (Home)
Worst Lost: #238 Western Carolina (Away)

#230 Youngstown St. (8-6)
Average Opponent: 203
Average Win: 279.2
Average Loss: 139.6
Best Win: #212 South Dakota (Away)
Worst Lost: #329 Kennesaw St. (Home)
Remaining: Wed, vs 261 Northern Kentucky

#266 Milwaukee (5-9)
Average Opponent: 175.4
Average Win: 223
Average Loss: 159.5
Best Win: #157 Louisiana-Lafayette (Neutral, Las Vegas)
Worst Lost: #312 IUPUI (Home)

#315 UIC (3-11) We gave away the wrong Chicago team.
Average Opponent: 178.5
Average Win: 291.5
Average Loss: 158
Best Win: #275 UCF (Home)
Worst Lost: #285 Grand Canyon (Home)

[SanityLost17]

Does Old Dominion have as close to the perfect schedule that a mid-major can have?  I think so! 

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Old%20Dominion.html

Their RPI is 12 and their SOS is 36 and did not play a single Duke, North Carolina, Kentucky, Ohio State, Kansas, Arizona, etc.  They played mid-major teams that are likely to be at the top of their conferences, A10 competition, and sub-par BCS schools.  HL schools would probably have to go on the road 1-2 more games than Old Dominion, but this is a schedule to model ourselves after.   

What do you think our record would be if we played this schedule?  My guess is 3 loses to LSU, VCU, and Illinois State.  That gives us 1 more loss then we have now and our RPI would be in the low 40's instead of the 70's.

All of the AD's should meet for a weekend of pizza and beer and analyze teams who schedule like this.  This is the secret.  Even if your team goes .500 with this schedule you still have an RPI under 150 to start conference play!     

[Kyle321n]

Now let's take a look at the scheduling for the conference.

There were 18 non D-1 home games in the conference. I can accept that as part of the scheduling, it's normal to get some non D-1s on your schedule, even the power 5 do it. We didn't lose any of these games which is acceptable. Any loss would be devastating for our conference's reputation. You don't lose at home to an inferior opponent.

There were 18 Neutral court games in the conference. That's pretty nice to get that many tourney/showcase invites for the conference. The average opponent in these games were 215. That kind of sucks since you usually expect a higher class of opponent in those games. We went 12-6 in these games with an average win of 232.8. The best win was Valpo's defeat of #104 Murray St

We were able to schedule 35 home games in the conference (~4 per team). That's rough. You expect to have to get a lower opponent to come to your court to play you and that's exactly what happened. An average of 202.5 ranked teams came to play in home buildings. Our best win was Green Bay's victory over #68 Georgia St. We went 19-16 at home with an average win of 238.5.

There were 3 losses at home I could count as inexcusable losses. As a conference we shouldn't lose to teams ranked over 275. UIC lost to #285 Grand Canyon, Milwaukee lost to #312, and Youngstown St. lost to #329 Kennesaw St. That hurts us as a conference.

There were no real "shocking" wins at home. If Milwaukee pulled off an upset vs. #4 Wisconsin that would have counted. Instead they got their doors blown off 93-54. Detroit also played #13 Wichita St and lost, this was a return game from the BracketBusters game two years ago when Detroit was a returning tournament team.

We had to go out and play 54 games on the road this season. Usually you'd like to see more home games than road games, but right now we're at the point that teams don't want to come to our stadium for fear of either losing to what they see as a low quality opponent or hurting RPI by beating a lower level opponent. The average road opponent was ranked 121.1. As is often the case when you go on the road we struggled with a 14-40 record. The average victory was over an opponent ranked 180.7 with our best road win coming in Green Bay's victory over #78 Miami.

While going out on the road is difficult, you really shouldn't lose to any team ranked higher than 275. Again we lost 3 games to this caliber of opponent; Detroit vs. #275 UCF, Milwaukee vs #292 SIU-Edwardsville, and Cleveland St vs. #324 Savannah St.

Here's a breakdown against the different caliber of opponent

1-50	0-14
51-100	5-14
101-125	5-9
125-150	3-7
151-200	3-2
201-225	4-7
226-250	6-2
251-275	4-3
275+	15-5
Non D-1	18-0
D1 Record	45-62

Analysis: Until that 251+ record is undefeated our conference is going to be in the middling teens for RPI and our conference champion will either have to have an Oakland-like schedule and go 10-4, or run the table in conference play with a schedule like ours to ever see a seed higher than 10. Even then we should probably have 45% of our schedule in the 101-200 range not the 28% we have right now.

[historyman]

My guess is 3 loses to LSU, VCU, and Illinois State.

I don't think we would lose to Illinois St. They beat IPFW by 20+ but that was at Normal. They lost to Murray St in KY and barely beat YSU in OT at Redbird Arena. With Peters having all his buddies attending from the Peoria area I don't think we lose that game.

[SanityLost17]

My guess is 3 loses to LSU, VCU, and Illinois State.

I don't think we would lose to Illinois St. They beat IPFW by 20+ but that was at Normal. They lost to Murray St in KY and barely beat YSU in OT at Redbird Arena. With Peters having all his buddies attending from the Peoria area I don't think we lose that game.

Either way, doesn't matter.  The key to my argument is that whether we would have 2, 3, or even 4 losses, our SOS would be very respectable and our RPI would be better than it is now, and you can't label a single game on that schedule as "unwinnable".   

[Kyle321n]

The Ill St. game was in the Virgin Islands. It'd be a long trip from Washington, IL to get there.

It's not like Old Dominion is that far ahead of us in the rankings. They are #50 in KenPom and we're #77. If we had won the Missouri game we'd be ahead of them for sure and possibly ahead of Green Bay at #42. Would have, could have, should have. Right now our schedule is lacking the key top 25 game they have, otherwise it's pretty similar. Trade Arkansas Pine Bluff for a San Diego St, SMU, George Washington or Butler and we've got practically the same SOS.

[classof2014]

Chances are if GB doesn't win the HL tournament they won't get an invite, the same holds true for Valpo. The only way this is a 2 bid league is if either GB or Valpo goes undefeated or just one loss in conference play and loses in the championship to the other.

If I were a betting man I'd say GB isn't dancing this season, I don't think they are coached well enough to go undefeated or just one-loss in the HL. Chances are they'll be 14-2 to 12-4 in HL play, more likely 12-4 and lose in the semi's to Wright State. This is why teams like Wright State and Valpo have been among the better in the league and have been to the HL championship game in the last 3 seasons if you combine the two.

In order to win the league you need good coaching, Donlon and Drew are the two best in the league. So it'll be Valpo vs WSU in the HL championship.

[a3uge]

Chances are if GB doesn't win the HL tournament they won't get an invite, the same holds true for Valpo. The only way this is a 2 bid league is if either GB or Valpo goes undefeated or just one loss in conference play and loses in the championship to the other.

This is interesting. I ran an RPI Wizard, and an undefeated season would mean a ~40 RPI with a 27-3 record for Valpo (assuming a loss at home to GB in the championship game). With a 26-4 record assuming a loss on the road @GB, the RPI drops to 46.

Green Bay going undefeated would be a 27 RPI with a 26-4 record, or 34 RPI with a 25-5 record assuming the conf loss is @ Valpo.

In 2013, Southern Miss had a 31 RPI, but wasn't an at-large, and the next year, had a 34 RPI and still didn't make it. Toledo also with a 38 didn't make it. Harvard had a 35 RPI record in 2010 and didn't make it.

But Iona in the MAAC with a 40 RPI and a 25-7 record did it in 2011. It really depends on how many teams lose their conf tourneys, and how strong the bubble teams are. So theoretically, I think you might be right with Valpo losing only 1 more game, and GB losing 2 more games, but it's not going to happen. This conference has historically played each other very tight. Valpo's best HL team lost to YSU and Loyola, Detroit's best HL team lost 5 conference games and had a buzzer beater vs Loyola, and Green Bay last year lost to UWM and a freshman Valpo team before losing to UWM again at home, in the conference tourney, yes, with two NBA players, at home, to UWM, in the conference tournament.

[covufan]

Chances are if GB doesn't win the HL tournament they won't get an invite, the same holds true for Valpo. The only way this is a 2 bid league is if either GB or Valpo goes undefeated or just one loss in conference play and loses in the championship to the other.

If I were a betting man I'd say GB isn't dancing this season, I don't think they are coached well enough to go undefeated or just one-loss in the HL. Chances are they'll be 14-2 to 12-4 in HL play, more likely 12-4 and lose in the semi's to Wright State. This is why teams like Wright State and Valpo have been among the better in the league and have been to the HL championship game in the last 3 seasons if you combine the two.

In order to win the league you need good coaching, Donlon and Drew are the two best in the league. So it'll be Valpo vs WSU in the HL championship.

The team getting the at-large bid would also need to be in the top 40 in RPI, preferably in the top 35.

[justducky]

My guess is 3 loses to LSU, VCU, and Illinois State.

I don't think we would lose to Illinois St. They beat IPFW by 20+ but that was at Normal. They lost to Murray St in KY and barely beat YSU in OT at Redbird Arena. With Peters having all his buddies attending from the Peoria area I don't think we lose that game.

Either way, doesn't matter.  The key to my argument is that whether we would have 2, 3, or even 4 losses, our SOS would be very respectable and our RPI would be better than it is now, and you can't label a single game on that schedule as "unwinnable".   

For next season we need to keep in mind for our scheduling that that there might be no team in the country that I would classify as being unbeatable! I think if we take 4 of these "unwinnable" road games we get 1 win and maybe with a little luck- well who knows? I don't care how it is structured and accomplished but next years team deserves the best challenge we can find them and I am not going to be prepared to listen to a bunch of excuses in August explaining the poor quality of our opponents!

Get err done!

[oklahomamick]

Problem with next years schedule is that more than 60% of it is already completed.  When sitting the schedule you have some games already guaranteed through previous contracts.  Have to keep in mind travel budget. Opportunity cost of playing a st.louis might be not flying  to Green Bay or etc.  do we find someone that would be willing to pay us to come play? (Oakland strategy).  There are a lot of variables and different combinations when setting the schedule.  I used to set the non conference schedule when I coached soccer at oru.  And talk about a tough budget...especially being so geographically isolated from other di men's soccer programs. 

[StlVUFan]

Oakland's 3-10 D-1 OOC record includes predestined losses to 6 teams: Iowa State, Michigan State, Arizona, Pittsburgh, Clemson and Maryland.

Not for nothing, but 2 of those losses were anything but predestined as it turned out.

At least he's not playing Duke, North Carolina, or Kansas every year.  Those are what I would call predestined losses.  This year's game against the Spartans was ghastly, but in years past they've come darn close to upsetting them (I don't blame him for playing MSU every year anyway, there's a relationship there).

I'm not a big fan of playing such games, either.  On top of everything else, there's a decent chance you're going to get hosed repeatedly by the zebras (this year's Pitt game, for example) -- that for me, by the way, is what makes the prostitution analogy so vivid and compelling.

There's one good way to put an end to this practice: win some of these games.  I guarantee the big boys will "solve" this "problem" for us, if that happens.  Until then, you've got to come up with a solution that meets Kampe's reasons for doing this.  I do hate the whole "it gives our players a chance to play in great arenas so they can tell stories to their grandkids" argument, and I also remember Kampe hinting that he would tone this down now that he's in the HL (though you've got to remember that coaches start building schedules a few years in advance, so this will take time).

In the meantime, isn't this precisely the means by which Butler rose to national prominence?  I'm not extremely familiar with their history prior to Valpo entering the conference, but wasn't there a time when they played a similar schedule (only they didn't walk into big venues all starry-eyed with scrapbooks for future descendants)?

[bbtds]

I do hate the whole "it gives our players a chance to play in great arenas so they can tell stories to their grandkids" argument, and I also remember Kampe hinting that he would tone this down now that he's in the HL (though you've got to remember that coaches start building schedules a few years in advance, so this will take time).

This is not exactly what Kampe said. He said that he had planned to scale back the schedule when he got in the HL but he then decided not to pull back because the players really enjoyed playing these teams in the big arenas and the AD said he was happy with the income. Kampe caved to the forces at OU--recruiting and budget needs.

[VULB#62]

I do hate the whole "it gives our players a chance to play in great arenas so they can tell stories to their grandkids" argument, and I also remember Kampe hinting that he would tone this down now that he's in the HL (though you've got to remember that coaches start building schedules a few years in advance, so this will take time).

This is not exactly what Kampe said. He said that he had planned to scale back the schedule when he got in the HL but he then decided not to pull back because the players really enjoyed playing these teams in the big arenas and the AD said he was happy with the income. Kampe caved to the forces at OU--recruiting and budget needs.

Something easily addressed if the HL commissioner and the member schools mandated a more HL-oriented scheduling policy. "Hey, you want in on the HL, adhere to our rules or find another conference." Ah, but, unfortunately there aren't many rules.

[valpopal]

Here are some of the Oakland Athletic Director's comments on this topic from their fan board:


I have read through the recent conversations on non-conference scheduling philosophies as it pertains to men's basketball. Please understand this is very complex issue because there are so many competing interests for a mid-major like Oakland. To list them in no particular order: financial, time away from the classroom, right number of home games, student-athlete experiences, perceived or actual recruiting advantages, exposure in the multimedia, the availability or scheduling of the O'Rena around University events, no competitions during finals week, the right mix for RPI purposes, any value to regional rivals, what could help marketing and ticket sales, playing in historic venues, paying or receiving game guarantees, etc.

That said, and being transparent, my personal philosophy is two fold. First, as a program, do what you believe will put you in a RPI advantage situation and allow the growth of the team to occur to put the team in the best position to succeed in the conference. Second, and of lesser importance, and this is very difficult to accomplish these days, create a home/road slate of games that makes sense in terms of relatively equal numbers and spaced out strategically through November and December.

My personal philosophy is that I think everything needs to be BALANCED in the non-conference schedule. I do think you need to play a few Power 5/ BCS level institutions because it does help the maturation of a team, and exposes a team to what they would likely face in any post-season play. There is tremendous value to playing these games and Coach Kampe has done a very nice job in securing these games on the one hand, and being competitive in the vast majority, on the other. But, and again this is my personal opinion, I also think you need to play more schools that are similar to where you are as a program to use as a gauge, and you can define this in terms of your own relative institutional position or the competition that you would likely see in the Horizon League. Again, this is in line with the preparation of the team mentality for conference play.

Here is the caveat. For those years that you believe you have a special team, then you may schedule up in hopes of putting a possible "at large" resume together. For years that there are a few more questions, then I think you take that into account. I believe the right philosophy is a balanced approach but that it ultimately does account for "special years." If you look at Butler's success a few years ago, their non-conference schedule became more ambitious in lock step with the relative strength of those Butler teams, and they did that while being a member of the Horizon League.

One item that is proven, and does not make much intuitive sense I grant you, is that local or regional teams playing at the O'Rena do not draw substantially better than other 'less known" programs outside of our Metro Series "frenemy" UDM. Hence, while fans may suggest playing more MAC or Missouri Valley or Conference X schools would help in attendance, that does not necessarily show up in the bottom line, at least when reviewing recent history. I also think that the gap is shrinking between institutions and this year, there have been more major upsets than in previous years. This is a long way of saying, winning in Division I is hard, and there are no easy games. As a preface, even the "best laid plans" can go up in smoke.

Read more: http://goldengrizzlyhoops.proboards.com/thread/1509/oakland-ad?page=4#ixzz3Nbv7xu3K

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Interesting.  I kind of feel either he is talking out of both sides of his mouth, though, or he has a serious difference of opinion from Kampe on the topic.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

http://www.valpofanzone.com/2015/01/02/horizon-league-the-non-con-2014/

Cross-posting my annual write-up over here too--hope you enjoy, learn something, are amused.  Whatever. 

Let's go get 'em, Crusaders!