Enrollment numbers

[David81]

Paul wake up. Not everything is sunshine and roses. Valpo is on bad trajectory and you can't say otherwise

First, let's remind ourselves, once again, that just about every college and university community outside of a charmed (=very wealthy) circle has concerns about its future. In the past 15 years, the higher ed world (like the rest of the world) has been battered by a global recession and a global pandemic. Demographics indicate a shrinking pool of traditional age students arriving sooner than later, and there's only so many distance learning master's degree programs that can be invented to fill the revenue gap. Moreover, our civic dialogue is a mess, in ways that are affecting or will affect choices that prospective students and faculty make. And in case you haven't noticed it, the earth itself has been delivering a load of very extreme climate and weather events this summer.

It's a pretty unsettling time.

Paul's annoyance may reflect what some folks regard as a sunshine and roses attitude about Valpo. But you know, for all of its challenges, VU still delivers a quality undergraduate education, better than a whole lot of places. Believe me, during my formal association with VU going back to 1977, I have not been easy on the institution, and there was a long stretch during which I was basically estranged from it. But I have come to truly appreciate its strengths. This university still gives a hoot about undergraduate learning and giving its students a good start in life.

If you have doubts about what I'm saying, then take a look at the special issue of The Torch that I linked to last December, a collection of essays from students, faculty, staff, and others on the theme, "I am Valpo." (Paul is among the contributors.) At the level the counts the most, things are still pretty darn good. That doesn't mean we disregard the many real challenges facing the institution, but it does remind us that the institution itself is worth supporting:

http://www.valpotorch.com/eedition/page_456dcb28-1c5f-5878-87be-dea654b91dfe.html

[valpopal]

What's your source on the actual numbers then? Allison Urbanzek (sp?) in the Regisrtrar has an exact number. Plus the true numbers will be once census hits after week 3

I am just reporting that I understand the actual numbers of freshmen and transfers to be just over 700, not 600 as I believe was misstated at the convocation. (As it is, the correct final numbers of almost 600 freshmen and a little over 100 transfers is less than hoped, but if the freshmen plus transfer numbers totaled only 600, we'd all be justified to worry greatly.) The graduate number was properly communicated at over 200.

[valpopal]

What's your source on the actual numbers then? Allison Urbanzek (sp?) in the Regisrtrar has an exact number. Plus the true numbers will be once census hits after week 3

I am just reporting that I understand the actual numbers of freshmen and transfers to be just over 700, not 600 as I believe was misstated at the convocation. (As it is, the correct final numbers of almost 600 freshmen and a little over 100 transfers is less than hoped, but if the freshmen plus transfer numbers totaled only 600, we'd all be justified to worry greatly.) The graduate number was properly communicated at over 200.

Received the following note from the Vice President of Enrollment and Marketing just 2 minutes after my above post:

"As the semester begins, we are excited to welcome over 600 new Beacons and over 100 transfers to campus this fall!"

[crusadermoe]

Yes, so glad to see that the VP's true headcount is 600 Freshmen PLUS 100 transfers. Padilla verbalizing a wrong number wasn't great.

The board and Moody's will be most affected by the trend in ACTUAL VU INCOME gained from tuition from this group. 

Fall 2022 student counts on VU website (per VU72 a few weeks ago)
576 Freshman
537 Sophomores
533 Juniors
700 Seniors (replaced this Fall by 600 freshmen)

[wh]

Yes, so glad to see that the VP's true headcount is 600 Freshmen PLUS 100 transfers. Padilla verbalizing a wrong number wasn't great.

The board and Moody's will be most affected by the trend in ACTUAL VU INCOME gained from tuition from this group. 

Fall 2022 student counts on VU website (per VU72 a few weeks ago)
576 Freshman
537 Sophomores
533 Juniors
700 Seniors (replaced this Fall by 600 freshmen)

100 incoming transfers is just a number until we until we how many undergrads from '22-23 aren't returning this fall. The difference between the 2 (incoming vs. outgoing) will tell the story.

[VUSupport]

Would like to see the net tuition numbers of each class cohorts. That's the true balance indicator if your enrollment numbers are down.

Also why would Padilla say wrong enrollment figures. You'd think both the president and VP of Enrollment would be on the same page.

[David81]

A large transfer class can help to offset the built-in "COVID classes" numbers that we've discussed before. Fingers crossed.

[wh]

From the VU website:

TRANSFER TO VALPO

"Every year, Valpo eagerly welcomes approximately 150 transfer students. In fact, roughly 30% of our students enter as transfers."

https://www.valpo.edu/admission-aid/transfer/

[David81]

From the VU website:

TRANSFER TO VALPO

"Every year, Valpo eagerly welcomes approximately 150 transfer students. In fact, roughly 30% of our students enter as transfers."

https://www.valpo.edu/admission-aid/transfer/

OK, my VU transcript will reveal that math was not my forte. But that strikes me as being website boilerplate with fuzzy math.

Let's assume a total undergraduate enrollment of 2,400 (last fall's figure: 2,355 https://www.valpo.edu/institutional-effectiveness/files/2022/09/Headcount_FA22.pdf)

That 30% assertion would mean some 720 undergraduates enrolled via transfer. They'd need a lot more than an average of 150 transfer students annually to get to that number...rather, some 240 transfers assuming everyone comes to VU after 1 year elsewhere.

In other words, the numbers don't add up.

[vu72]

Also why would Padilla say wrong enrollment figures.

It wasn't Padilla, it was Provost Johnson.  Still a valid question however.

[vu84v2]

Net transfers is the key number - not incoming transfers. Further, net tuition (or discount rate) is another key number.

In regards to Provost Johnson, anyone can misspeak when in front of an audience. I hope that Valpo sends an internal correction (or just the right numbers).

[crusadermoe]

I sure hate to pick at numbers or be paranoid.  But the Provost is an engineer and it's hard for me to think he slipped a tongue on such a key number.

My only concern is that the VP of enrollment literally said "600 new crusaders," and not "600 freshmen."  Let's hope it meant freshmen. But since that email was meant as a key clarification of such an important matter, it should have been more precise than using the term, "new crusaders."  Even though the census is the final number, 100 and "almost 600" are very round numbers, it could have at least rounded to the nearest 10. 

[vu84v2]

I sure hate to pick at numbers or be paranoid.  But the Provost is an engineer and it's hard for me to think he slipped a tongue on such a key number.

My only concern is that the VP of enrollment literally said "600 new crusaders," and not "600 freshmen."  Let's hope it meant freshmen. But since that email was meant as a key clarification of such an important matter, it should have been more precise than using the term, "new crusaders."  Even though the census is the final number, 100 and "almost 600" are very round numbers, it could have at least rounded to the nearest 10. 

(Laughing) As someone with an engineering degree, I have had more than a few slips of the tongue. But, again, it is important for Valpo to clarify the figure.

Did he actually say "new crusaders"? That would be an even bigger slip of the tongue.

[vu72]

I won't bother with the "crusader" comment.

Here is an article which only adds to the enrollment questions. The article says one thing and the attached information from the University says another.  Let's take the Universities numbers as fact:

Again, I presume these include both freshman and transfers which totals 779. I doubt Christ College students would be double counted. If you add another 200 grad students the numbers start to look much better.

https://valpo.life/article/valparaiso-university-welcomes-a-new-class-to-campus/

Oh, and the GPA of 3.72 is impressive as well!

[crusadermoe]

Oops.  It said "600 new Beacons."

We can dream that some day soon our "new beacons" (all bodies") will serve as a "Thousand Points of Light" each fall 

At least it is a bright group?  I am just getting started....   

[valpopal]

The confusion continues. The message distributed by the Vice President for Enrollment and Marketing yesterday stating there are "over 600 new beacons and over 100 transfers" further listed the following breakdown of numbers for freshmen and transfers:

CAS 290
COB  94
COE 126
NHP 183
CC.   86

Total 779 (maybe as low as 693 if all CC students are accounted for as majors elsewhere)

Yet, on the university website, the page linked below also dated yesterday uses the Provost's language: "Of the 602 students joining the campus community, 94 are coming in as transfer students...." I believe this language is an error and should be 602 freshmen plus 94 transfers (696 total), since I have been informed the current freshmen plus transfer numbers more closely resemble 700 and the grad numbers exceed 200. https://www.valpo.edu/news/2023/08/23/valparaiso-university-welcomes-a-new-class-to-campus/

The Valpo Life article posted by vu72 seems to use the university web page numbers, but I believe it is a bit more accurate in its language, separating "over 600 new students" and then listing transfers as just "students": "Of the students joining the campus community, 94 are coming in as transfer students." However, the numbers in this article do not match its accompanying graphic, which reflects the Vice President's numbers I cited above.

[78crusader]

Two thoughts -

First, it shouldn't be hard to let people know in a clear manner how many new students have arrived on campus.

Second, the NHP number of 183 new students - which to me is surprisingly high - lends support to my position that a new nursing building, not a new arena, should be the top priority for the university at this point in time.

Paul

[78crusader]

If the NHP headcount is lower this year than last year, that adds even more support to my position that a new NHP should be top priority. Local community colleges have way upped their game on NHP facilities and I can't help but conclude they are taking away kids that would otherwise consider VU.

Paul

[David81]

We may have to wait until the dust settles and the 2023 version of this document (which I also posted above) is available:
https://www.valpo.edu/institutional-effectiveness/files/2022/09/Headcount_FA22.pdf

[crusadermoe]

(...in a hushed and reverent PBS tone) 
At dawn it seems cloudy on the horizon.  But as the fog lifts over the waves, we can see more clearly and be able to accurately count our "NEW BEACONS" more easily.


So how many freakin' Beacons are there? 
And how bright are they? Brighter at times than others? 
When you welcome them, do they arrive by sea or by land?

[wh]

From the VU website:

TRANSFER TO VALPO
"Every year, Valpo eagerly welcomes approximately 150 transfer students. In fact, roughly 30% of our students enter as transfers."
https://www.valpo.edu/admission-aid/transfer/

1. 100 incoming transfers appears to be alarmingly low. According to College Transfer Net there were 143 transfers a year ago. Valpo's website references an average of 150/yr. Valpo's ad in CTN claims 200/year. I also vaguely recall seeing somewhere that Valpo has an incoming transfer rate of 9%. IF 9% is accurate, "normal" would be in the 175-200 range.

2. I repeat, whether it's 600 or 700 shining new faces, it doesn't mean anything until we know how many of last year's underclassmen didn't return. For all anyone knows 200 former students may have transferred out, resulting in a net transfer loss of 100.

3. Bottom line. I think people may be reading too much into a 1-off, feel-good greeting to new students. That said, I understand the burning desire to know the bottom line. I'm as interested as the next person, believe me. Hopefully, it all turns out well and we can breathe a sigh of relief. Despite my criticisms of how we got here, Valpo remains a great academic institution with multiple assets and a credible recovery plan.

[crusadermoe]

That all makes sense.  Appreciate the insights! 

Guess we see in September. And statistically there's really no reason to over-analyze increases or decreases of 10% in such a small sample size of students.  See you after the census.  We will know the number of "new Beacons."   Good lord on the mascots. 

FYI the website (being pushed out on Facebook) still says 602 students 94 of whom are transfers.

 

[wh]

Yes, all will become clear once the official documents are set.

Wh, I actually am not too concerned about a further huge drop-off in retention. Maybe it could sink a little because of general factors like incoming students just being less and less prepared for college emotionally or academically.

Last year's big drop down to 77% seemed severe for Valpo, and I imagine that sort of steep decline wouldn't continue. You know I am usually a cynic- but I think this year was surely for student retention and morale better than the preceding ones. In 2020/21/22, campus life was mostly staff crying in hallways and roomates' programs getting discontinued, lots of confusion, lots of students support resources evaporating.... and then the big drop in retention. This past 2022/23 year did have the "negativity" of the Art Museum controversy, but I think that was most likely to be actually discouraging to faculty or staff for whom it seemed another indicator that the Administration will gut anything and everything to fund their investment plan of the year -- whereas students don't have those kind of meta-worries about the future of higher ed. To most students, it was probably either a neutrally juicy and interesting campus drama, or if they opposed the art sale on principle, then an angrily energizing rallying point that got the blood flowing. But I just don't think the energy around Brauer was all that bad for student campus experience. A little controversy can even help campus culture insofar as it gets students to look up from Tiktok and pay attention to campus community. The 2020-22 controveries were just depressing and soulsucking. The 2022-23 Brauer and BBall controversies were at least interesting!

So in a rare glass-half-full impulse, I would hope that retention and transfer rates stay stable where they were in the %70s... Fingers crossed

Hopefully, you would agree that turning Valpo's financial woes into a national spectacle potentially jeopardized recruiting and retention.

[David81]

So if folks are interested in digging into past year's enrollment numbers, there's a treasure trove of data posted by the University here:
https://www.valpo.edu/institutional-effectiveness/institutional-research/longitudinal-enrollment-data/

I was poking around while wondering whether it's possible to suggest a ballpark enrollment figure that would support a sustainable institution, with an option to grow but not dependent upon it to survive. Of course there are countless other factors to be taken under consideration, reliant upon info not known to members of this Forum generally.

The numbers by college did confirm to me a point I've asserted earlier, namely, that the different divisions of the University basically need each other, even if their educational missions are not all in harmony. That's what a "comprehensive" category university is, a (hopefully) healthy mix of liberal arts and professional programs, concentrated on undergraduate education, but also offering a fairly wide degree of graduate programs, usually at the master's and professional levels.

FWIW, after perusing those numbers, I'd toss out a suggestion that if VU can reach a point of holding relatively steady at between 2,600-2,800 undergraduate students and between 500-700 graduate students, then it should be in OK shape.

[VUSupport]

I think what is the most troubling of all this enrollment figures is that not everyone is on the same page. From Official VU Facebook posts which is run by the VP of Enrollment and Marketing Office and the Provost, you'd think they'd have the same message. I mean get your  together people. The new VP of Enrollment and Marketing is way in over her head on this and to have split verbiage on enrollment figures is very disturbing. Once again I trust Allison Urbanczyk in the Registrar's Office to give the true enrollment figures.