Perhaps you'll allow me the indulgence of starting a thread for the polls, as in previous seasons.
I'm feeling optimistic, so perhaps we'll keep it in the Valpo forum this year? But, we can still mention the other teams.
The opening Mid-Major Top 25 has Valpo at #21, as mentioned elsewhere.
This must have been mentioned elsewhere too, Valpo picking up three votes in the AP poll. Good for... 47th.
Detroit effectively #27 in the Mid-Major poll. Cleveland State down at... #57. With a couple of Summit teams ahead of them (OK - SDSU's ahead of us too).
Butler's #31 in the AP Poll, and picking up votes in the Coaches' poll as well.
http://www.collegeinsider.com/new/mens-mid-major-top-25.php (http://www.collegeinsider.com/new/mens-mid-major-top-25.php)
From November 5
Record Points Previous
1. Creighton (25) 0-0 764 - Missouri Valley
2. Gonzaga (4) 0-0 709 - West Coast
3. Murray State (2) 0-0 685 - Ohio Valley
4. Drexel 0-0 619 - Colonial
5. Ohio 0-0 569 - Mid-American
6. Lehigh 0-0 506 - Patriot
7. Davidson 0-0 502 - Southern
8. Illinois State 0-0 416 - Missouri Valley
9. Belmont 0-0 415 - Ohio Valley
10. Middle Tennessee 0-0 409 - Sun Belt
11. BYU 0-0 396 - West Coast
12. South Dakota State 0-0 338 - Summit
13. St. Mary's 0-0 326 - West Coast
14. Mercer 0-0 287 - Atlantic Sun
15. Akron 0-0 277 - Mid-American
16. Bucknell 0-0 266 - Patriot
17. Northern Iowa 0-0 241 - Missouri Valley
18. Utah State 0-0 234 - WAC
19. North Texas 0-0 188 - Sun Belt
20. Wichita State 0-0 185 - Missouri Valley
21. Valparaiso 0-0 184 - Horizon
22. Iona 0-0 182 - Metro Atlantic
23. Fairfield 0-0 173 - Metro Atlantic
24. Long Beach State 0-0 156 - Big West
25. New Mexico State 0-0 151 - WAC
OTHERS RECEIVING VOTES: Loyola MD 124, Detroit 117, Oral Roberts 99, Montana 76, George Mason 34, USC Upstate 30, Old Dominion 29, Tennessee State 29, College of Charleston 25, Denver 23, LIU-Brooklyn 22, Manhattan 20, Weber State 20, Harvard 19, Wagner 18, Princeton 17, UT-Arlington 17, Delaware 16, Elon 16, Oakland 16, Savannah State 16, South Alabama 14, Siena 12, Robert Morris 10, UTSA 10, Idaho 9, UNC Greensboro 8, Santa Clara 6, Cal State Fullerton 5, Kent State 4, UNC-Asheville 4, Cleveland State 3, Evansville 3, Loyola Marymount 3, Chattanooga 2, Charleston Southern 2, Utah Valley 2, Jackson State 1, Norfolk State 1, North Dakota 1, San Diego 1, Stephen F. Austin 1, Stony Brook 1, UC Irvine 1 .
VOTING PANEL: Casey Alexander (Stetson), Murry Bartow (East Tennessee State), Randy Bennett (St. Mary's), Horace Broadnax (Savannah State), Milan Brown (Holy Cross), Will Brown (Albany), Kermit Davis (Middle Tennessee), Billy Donlon (Wright State), Bruiser Flint (Drexel), James Fox (Davidson), Tyler Geving (Portland State), Mike Gillian (Longwood), Seth Greenberg (ESPN), Steve Hawkins (Western Michigan), Willie Hayes (Alabama A&M), B.J. Hill (Northern Colorado), Dick Hunsaker (Utah Valley), James Jones (Yale), Greg Kampe (Oakland), Danny Kaspar (Stephen F. Austin), Kerry Keating (Santa Clara), Tod Kowalczyk (Toledo), Gregg Marshall (Wichita State), Greg McDermott (Creighton), Tom Moore (Quinnipiac), Jeff Neubauer (Eastern Kentucky), Jimmy Patsos (Loyola MD), Buzz Peterson (UNC-Wilmington), John Shulman (Chattanooga), Don Verlin (Idaho), Ron Verlin (Pacific).
Enjoy it while you can! Horizon League ranked #1 conference in RPI: http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html (http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html)
Fun! I guess that was before Milwaukee lost to South Carolina today.
On the other hand, RPI doesn't have an enormous amount of confidence in Valpo. It projects the team will achieve an overall record of 15-13 and 10-6 in the conference: http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_281_Men.html (http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_281_Men.html)
lucky for us they have to play the games out
Quote from: valpopal on November 11, 2012, 06:16:08 PM
On the other hand, RPI doesn't have an enormous amount of confidence in Valpo. It projects the team will achieve an overall record of 15-13 and 10-6 in the conference: http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_281_Men.html (http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_281_Men.html)
Of course, that's with losses to "top-100" RPI teams like Kent State, Cleveland State, Wright State, and Oakland! These computerized predictions, especially, can't mean much after one (or at best a few) game.
That AP Preseason poll was, I believe, from October 26th. In today's week 1 poll we didn't receive any votes. Butler hangs in at #32 with a 74-59 win over Elon.
Quote from: agibson on November 12, 2012, 02:26:01 PM
That AP Preseason poll was, I believe, from October 26th. In today's week 1 poll we didn't receive any votes. Butler hangs in at #32 with a 74-59 win over Elon.
Dead man walking.
Quote from: wh on November 12, 2012, 03:05:15 PM
Quote from: agibson on November 12, 2012, 02:26:01 PM
That AP Preseason poll was, I believe, from October 26th. In today's week 1 poll we didn't receive any votes. Butler hangs in at #32 with a 74-59 win over Elon.
Dead man walking.
They're already out of the Coaches' Poll.
Gee, I guess we should have kept our foot on the gas in our game. It appears that a 31 point win against a team picked third in their conference was not impressive enough. Perhaps if we had won by 50 (I think we could have come close). What new team came into the poll with a more impressive win?
Quote from: FWalum on November 12, 2012, 03:41:54 PM
Gee, I guess we should have kept our foot on the gas in our game. It appears that a 31 point win against a team picked third in their conference was not impressive enough. Perhaps if we had won by 50 (I think we could have come close). What new team came into the poll with a more impressive win?
I suppose the pre-season poll, in particular, is pretty ephemeral. More about people's imaginations of what various teams could accomplish.
The week 1 result probably has nothing to do with our performance. It _might_ have something to do with KVW's or Capo's injuries. More likely it's just that whatever caught the imagination of a writer or three to put us at #23-#25 on their ballot has faded, or some glint from another team replaced it.
Now that the season's started, these things do begin to seem quite mechanical. They should be more predictable from here - though I don't know how e.g. Valpo would break in. Would a Nebrasksa win be enough, or would they need an N game unbeaten streak?
Quote from: agibson on November 12, 2012, 04:39:46 PM
Quote from: FWalum on November 12, 2012, 03:41:54 PM
Gee, I guess we should have kept our foot on the gas in our game. It appears that a 31 point win against a team picked third in their conference was not impressive enough. Perhaps if we had won by 50 (I think we could have come close). What new team came into the poll with a more impressive win?
I suppose the pre-season poll, in particular, is pretty ephemeral. More about people's imaginations of what various teams could accomplish.
The week 1 result probably has nothing to do with our performance. It _might_ have something to do with KVW's or Capo's injuries. More likely it's just that whatever caught the imagination of a writer or three to put us at #23-#25 on their ballot has faded, or some glint from another team replaced it.
Now that the season's started, these things do begin to seem quite mechanical. They should be more predictable from here - though I don't know how e.g. Valpo would break in. Would a Nebrasksa win be enough, or would they need an N game unbeaten streak?
If anyone really cares, Elton Alexander from Cleveland was the guy who voted for Valpo in the week 1 poll. He dropped Valpo, Drexel, Murray State, Saint Louis and Florida State from his ballot this week in favor of Michigan, Baylor, Notre Dame, UConn and San Diego State.
http://www.pollspeak.com/component/option,com_psreport/Itemid,3/lang,en/p,49/p_1,49/r,V/r_1,V/s,22/s_1,22/t1,0/t1_1,0/t2,0/t2_1,0/v,162/v_1,162/w,2/w_1,2/ (http://www.pollspeak.com/component/option,com_psreport/Itemid,3/lang,en/p,49/p_1,49/r,V/r_1,V/s,22/s_1,22/t1,0/t1_1,0/t2,0/t2_1,0/v,162/v_1,162/w,2/w_1,2/)
FWIW, Alexander was also the only guy who didn't have Cody Zeller on his pre-season All-America ballot.
Fascinating! What's his beat? Does he cover CSU? That ballot did have a bunch of extremes. Including the only vote/votes for Valpo.
Is that info all now public, every week? I had a vague notion that one of the big polls would release e.g. one week's ballots, after the season. But that, for the most part, they were confidential.
Or is this a tabulation of info volunteered by the voters?
Valpo's unchanged in the Nov 12 Mid-major poll. Which has oddities of its own. I'll come back and annotate and comment later.
1. Creighton (25) 1-0 764 1 Missouri Valley
2. Gonzaga (4) 1-0 709 2 West Coast
3. Murray State (2) 1-0 689 3 Ohio Valley
4. Ohio 1-0 623 5 Mid-American
5. Drexel 0-1 561 4 Colonial
6. Lehigh 0-1 503 6 Patriot
7. Davidson 1-0 501 7 Southern
8. Illinois State 0-0 420 8 Missouri Valley
9. Belmont 1-0 418 9 Ohio Valley
10. Middle Tennessee 1-0 411 10 Sun Belt
11. BYU 1-0 402 11 West Coast
12. South Dakota State 0-1 334 12 Summit
13. St. Mary's 1-0 333 13 West Coast
14. Mercer 1-0 286 14 Atlantic Sun
15. Bucknell 1-0 281 16 Patriot
16. Akron 0-1 258 15 Mid-American
17. Northern Iowa 1-0 244 17 Missouri Valley
18. Utah State 1-0 231 18 WAC
19. Wichita State 1-0 184 20 Missouri Valley
20. North Texas 0-1 180 19 Sun Belt
21. Valparaiso 1-0 178 21 Horizon
22. Iona 1-0 175 22 Metro Atlantic
23. Fairfield 1-0 168 23 Metro Atlantic
24. South Alabama 1-0 136 NR Sun Belt
25. Long Beach State 1-0 122 24 Big West
OTHERS RECEIVING VOTES: George Mason 117, Detroit 115, Kent State 106, New Mexico State 61, Oral Roberts 60, Montana 56, Loyola MD 52, College of Charleston 51, USC Upstate 26, Tennessee State 25, Denver 22, Harvard 21,Manhattan 21, Savannah State 20, Weber State 20, Cleveland State 19, Elon 16, Norfolk State 16, Delaware 15, UT-Arlington 14, Coastal Carolina 12, LIU-Brooklyn 12, Wagner 12, Princeton 11, Santa Clara 6, Texas State 6, Cal State Fullerton 5, Saint Peter's 5, Idaho 4, Robert Morris 4, UTSA 3, UC Irvine 2, Chattanooga 2, Loyola Marymount 2, Utah Valley 2, Campbell 1 Jackson State 1, North Dakota 1, Sacred Heart 1, San Diego 1, Stephen F. Austin 1, Stony Brook 1 .
i'm amused by the four 0-1 teams ranked ahead of us in the poll, as well as the 0-0 illinois state redbirds... what gives?
Not sure about the four 0-1 teams, but Illinois State played last night, so their first game came after the poll. They went to 1-0, so they are even with us, for now.
Quote from: valporun on November 13, 2012, 07:34:56 AM
Not sure about the four 0-1 teams, but Illinois State played last night, so their first game came after the poll. They went to 1-0, so they are even with us, for now.
Actually 5.
Quote from: VULB#62 on November 13, 2012, 09:08:47 AM
Quote from: valporun on November 13, 2012, 07:34:56 AM
Not sure about the four 0-1 teams, but Illinois State played last night, so their first game came after the poll. They went to 1-0, so they are even with us, for now.
Actually 5.
glad somebody can count. because apparently i can't. :-[
So, we're going to lose out on the easy "X-0 record votes". Will a close loss against a lousy BCS team be overlooked compared to a hard fought win against an almost-top 25 midmajor?
I suspect we stay in the top 25, but don't gain ground. We'll see.
The voters seem to still not be taking much account of the actual games played. A few teams moved a little, but lots of losses didn't do much to the rankings.
South Alabama passed us up on the strength of their win against the ACC's Florida St.
Youngstown State and Wright State pick up some votes.
Butler's fallen out of the national polls completely.
1. Creighton (26) 3-0 769 1 Missouri Valley
2. Gonzaga (4) 3-0 744 2 West Coast
3. Ohio 3-0 665 4 Mid-American
4. Murray State (1) 3-1 636 3 Ohio Valley
5. Belmont 3-0 608 9 Ohio Valley
6. Illinois State 3-0 581 8 Missouri Valley
7. Bucknell 5-0 556 15 Patriot
8. Lehigh 1-2 512 6 Patriot
9. Northern Iowa 3-0 499 17 Missouri Valley
10. St. Mary's 3-0 430 13 West Coast
11. Middle Tennessee 2-1 414 10 Sun Belt
11. Wichita State 4-0 414 19 Missouri Valley
13. BYU 2-2 328 11 West Coast
14. South Dakota State 3-2 283 12 Summit
15. Drexel 1-2 265 5 Colonial
16. Davidson 1-2 229 7 Southern
17. South Alabama 2-0 224 24 Sun Belt
18. Akron 3-2 180 16 Mid-American
19. Mercer 2-3 179 14 Atlantic Sun
20. Utah State 2-1 174 18 WAC
21. North Texas 2-2 162 20 Sun Belt
22. Valparaiso 3-1 132 21 Horizon
23. Cal State Northridge 6-0 127 NR Big West
24. Iona 2-1 125 22 Metro Atlantic
25. Fairfield 2-1 121 23 Metro Atlantic
OTHERS RECEIVING VOTES: Long Beach State 105, Kent State 98, Detroit 75, Loyola MD 61, Hawaii 56, George Mason 53, Youngstown State 37, Oakland 30, Albany 21, Delaware 18, Tennessee Tech 17, Stephen F Austin 16, Cleveland State 14, Bradley 12, Harvard 12, UC Irvine 12, Loyola Marymount 11, Santa Clara 9, Northwestern State 9, Oral Roberts 8, William & Mary 8, Wright State 7, Ball State 6, Denver 5, Western Michigan 5, Princeton 4, Stony Brook 3, UTSA 3, Eastern Kentucky 1, UT Arlington 1, Elon 1.
The conference mix just seems odd, too.
4 MVC teams ahead of us, OK, maybe.
A couple of WCC teams, OK.
But three from the _Sun Belt_? Really?
Two each from the Ohio Valley and patriot?
Are we far enough into the season for computer rankings to mean anything? Probably not, but shall we have a look anyway?
realtimerpi.com has the Horizon League a dismal 22nd. Valpo's leading the pack at 109, UIC 125, YSU 143, CSU 152 and WSU 196 are all above 0.500 and above 200 RPI. Detroit's the tail at 317.
kenpom.com, with Pomeroy's own computer ranking, has Valpo at 95, CSU 107, YSU 123, Detroit 124, UWGB 143, WSU 176. (Loyola the tail at 250).
Whelliston's Basketball State (bbstate.com) computer ranking has WSU at 29 among "small conference" schools (70 overall), Valpo 32/76, UIC 43/97, YSU 59/123, Detroit 90/175, CSU 95/180, UWM 113/198, Loyola the tail (181/275). Three of the top 5 "small conference" schools are A10, with Butler at 4/17.
So, quite some diversity.
Quote from: agibson on November 20, 2012, 12:04:15 PM
Are we far enough into the season for computer rankings to mean anything? Probably not, but shall we have a look anyway?
realtimerpi.com has the Horizon League a dismal 22nd. Valpo's leading the pack at 109, UIC 125, YSU 143, CSU 152 and WSU 196 are all above 0.500 and above 200 RPI. Detroit's the tail at 317.
kenpom.com, with Pomeroy's own computer ranking, has Valpo at 95, CSU 107, YSU 123, Detroit 124, UWGB 143, WSU 176. (Loyola the tail at 250).
Whelliston's Basketball State (bbstate.com) computer ranking has WSU at 29 among "small conference" schools (70 overall), Valpo 32/76, UIC 43/97, YSU 59/123, Detroit 90/175, CSU 95/180, UWM 113/198, Loyola the tail (181/275). Three of the top 5 "small conference" schools are A10, with Butler at 4/17.
So, quite some diversity.
I really have a problem with the realtimerpi calculations. At this stage of the game the rankings of these teams is way too biased to their starting rpi and his method of determining that initial rpi might be scientific but in MHO not very accurate. Things get much more accurate for the realtimerpi later in the season.
Quote from: FWalum on November 20, 2012, 01:10:11 PMI really have a problem with the realtimerpi calculations. At this stage of the game the rankings of these teams is way too biased to their starting rpi and his method of determining that initial rpi might be scientific but in MHO not very accurate. Things get much more accurate for the realtimerpi later in the season.
I don't think I follow. I only quoted the straight RPI from realtimerpi. I guess they have other features: their power ratings, predictions, maybe others.
Their RPI calculation is just a straight RPI calculation, right? No magic initial information? For Valpo, at least, the number matches http://warrennolan.com/. (http://warrennolan.com/.)
There's another computer ranking, I suppose, perhaps worth including. In the Nolan Power Index Wright State is 46, YSU 83, Valpo 92, with Detroit bringing up the tail at 281. The Horizon's in 13th place overall.
So, yeah, the computer rankings are working on pretty limited information. The RPI is too, but at least the numerical of the RPI shouldn't be in dispute, right?
Sagarin has Valpo at #81 (YSU at #97, Detroit at #98), and the Horizon League is listed at #12:
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt1213.htm (http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt1213.htm)
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkc1213.htm (http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkc1213.htm)
It's just to early to look at computer rankings. Ignore them until a month into the season. Just root for the Horizon League teams to keep winning and the rest will take care of itself.
Quote from: chef on November 20, 2012, 03:40:30 PM
It's just to early to look at computer rankings. Ignore them until a month into the season. Just root for the Horizon League teams to keep winning and the rest will take care of itself.
Exactly. They're nice message board fodder, but really who cares? We're number 22 in the mid major poll...whoo hoo? Just keeping winning and the rest will take care of itself.
Quote from: chef on November 20, 2012, 03:40:30 PM
It's just to early to look at computer rankings. Ignore them until a month into the season. Just root for the Horizon League teams to keep winning and the rest will take care of itself.
Along the same lines, ESPN's Joe Lunardi has already been tweeting "last four in" and "first four out" notes. There's way too much season left to get wrapped up in this stuff right now.
Quote from: KL31NY on November 20, 2012, 04:28:57 PM
Quote from: chef on November 20, 2012, 03:40:30 PM
It's just to early to look at computer rankings. Ignore them until a month into the season. Just root for the Horizon League teams to keep winning and the rest will take care of itself.
Along the same lines, ESPN's Joe Lunardi has already been tweeting "last four in" and "first four out" notes. There's way too much season left to get wrapped up in this stuff right now.
Not to mention that Lunardi is a cartoon character as prognosticators go.
I do my best to avoid prognostications, period. Bracketology is especially something I have very interest in, even in February. Just one of the many ways that ESPN attempts (but fails) to ruin my College basketball joy.
The Worldwide Leader blows.
http://deadspin.com/5929361/how-espn-ditched-journalism-and-followed-skip-bayless-to-the-bottom-a-tim-tebow-story (http://deadspin.com/5929361/how-espn-ditched-journalism-and-followed-skip-bayless-to-the-bottom-a-tim-tebow-story)
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on November 21, 2012, 10:02:43 AM
The Worldwide Leader blows.
http://deadspin.com/5929361/how-espn-ditched-journalism-and-followed-skip-bayless-to-the-bottom-a-tim-tebow-story (http://deadspin.com/5929361/how-espn-ditched-journalism-and-followed-skip-bayless-to-the-bottom-a-tim-tebow-story)
The Worldwide Leader has been crap for years, my friend. Welcome on board.
Maybe this was posted at some point. ESPN the Mag ranked all 320+ teams pre-season.. Obviously they would not know all of the teams.
#25 SLU, #26 New Mexico #50 Murray State, Detroit #83, Valpo #107 Neb. #151 NIU and Chicago State real bad at #300+ Ga State was #260ish. So we havent' proven much yet except we can lose to mediocities.
More to follow. .
We didn't play Georgia State, we played Georgia Southern
Valpo moves up to 16th in the latest College Insider Mid-Major Top 25: http://www.collegeinsider.com/new/mens-mid-major-top-25.php (http://www.collegeinsider.com/new/mens-mid-major-top-25.php)
To dump the rest of the list (CI doesn't obviously archive them):
No change in the top 8. 9-14 rotate a little bit. More significant changes below that. Including our move up to #16. I guess the voters like wins, even against relatively weak opponents?
I'm a little amazed that some of these teams (South Dakota State? Lehigh?) are still so high.
Detroit didn't get a single vote.
Update: November 26th, 2012
1. Creighton (26) 6-0 768 1 Missouri Valley
2. Gonzaga (5) 6-0 750 2 West Coast
3. Ohio 5-0 690 3 Mid-American
4. Murray State 4-1 639 4 Ohio Valley
5. Belmont 5-1 591 5 Ohio Valley
6. Illinois State 5-1 552 6 Missouri Valley
7. Bucknell 5-1 541 7 Patriot
8. Lehigh 4-2 532 8 Patriot
9. Wichita State 6-0 479 11 Missouri Valley
10. Middle Tennessee 4-1 458 11 Sun Belt
11. BYU 4-2 444 13 West Coast
12. Saint Mary's 4-2 408 10 West Coast
13. South Dakota State 4-2 353 14 Summit
14. Northern Iowa 3-3 351 9 Missouri Valley
15. Davidson 3-3 334 16 Southern
16. Valparaiso 5-1 326 22 Horizon
17. Akron 3-2 293 18 Mid-American
18. Utah State 3-1 213 20 WAC
19. Mercer 3-3 187 19 Atlantic Sun
20. Drexel 2-4 132 15 Colonial
21. Loyola MD 5-1 116 NR Metro Atlantic
22. North Texas 3-3 109 21 Sun Belt
23. Cal State Northridge 6-1 107 23 Big West
24. Santa Clara 5-0 84 NR West Coast
25. Pacific 3-3 56 NR Big West
OTHERS RECEIVING VOTES: Hawaii 55, Kent State 51, George Mason 43, Wright State 39, Stephen F. Austin 36, Eastern Kentucky 32, Bradley 27, Iona 27, Cal Poly 25, Southern Illinois 23, Louisiana Tech 22, North Dakota State 22, South Alabama 20, Long Beach State 15, Albany 14, Cleveland State 13, College of Charleston 13, Western Michigan 12, Montana 10, Oral Roberts 10, Fairfield 9, Harvard 9, Saint Peter's 8, Arkansas State 7, Northeastern 5, Niagara 4, Columbia 3, Vermont 2, Youngstown State 2, Bryant 1, Elon 1, Stony Brook 1, UT-Arlington 1.
A few other tidbits.
New Mexico enters the overall ratings at 25/23, based on their win over Connecticut. UNM's at RPI 5.
Butler's picking up votes again. (RPI 6 )
Of course, RPI's are still rapidly fluctuating. At the moment UIC (86) is ahead of us (103).
And here's an oddity. BBstate.com currently has UIC ranked 10th among small conference schools, 38th overall? Not sure where that came from. Valpo's at 24/78.
I think the only reason why Lehigh and South Dakota State are still so high is because they were their conference's champion for the NCAA bid. If it weren't for that, not sure that either team would be in the teens of this poll.
Quote from: agibson on November 27, 2012, 12:32:56 PM
Of course, RPI's are still rapidly fluctuating. At the moment UIC (86) is ahead of us (103).
On the strength of (now 6-1) UIC's win at Northwestern they're up to 55th in RPI. Without playing any additional games, (5-1) Valpo's down to 147 (still good for second in the Horizon League...).
Quote from: agibson on November 27, 2012, 12:32:56 PM
New Mexico enters the overall ratings at 25/23, based on their win over Connecticut. UNM's at RPI 5.
Butler's picking up votes again. (RPI 6 )
Of course, RPI's are still rapidly fluctuating. At the moment UIC (86) is ahead of us (103).
And here's an oddity. BBstate.com currently has UIC ranked 10th among small conference schools, 38th overall? Not sure where that came from. Valpo's at 24/78.
UNM's now 8-0, 18/20 in the polls and RPI #3. Butler's RPI #8 and receiving votes in both polls. Murray State's RPI #27 and receiving votes in both polls.
UIC's now RPI #33. Pomeroy still has them well down in the Horizon League pack. Whelliston's BBState.com has UIC _6th_ among small conference schools (including the A10) and _26th_ overall. That seems a bit much, but then again I've been saying that for a while and UIC's been winning games.
Valpo's down at RPI #161, behind Cleveland State at #146. Valpo's down to 43/112 on BBstate.com.
Can UIC crack the mid-major poll? They should definitely at least receive votes this week. I guess I'll be surprised, but not shocked, if they make the top-25. They might well deserve to (I still wonder exactly what BBState sees...). And, if they keep winning, the'll obviously make it in. A win over Colorado State on Saturday should do it for sure.
Will Valpo fall? I expect we'll stay in the top 25. Maybe hold approximately static. Maybe fall a few places.
Well, color me surprised. The voters are more fungible than I thought. UIC's in at #23. From not receiving votes last week.
Feels a little bad to slip below Akron, but we'll have to earn our way back up.
Update: December 3rd, 2012
1. Gonzaga (30) 8-0 774 2 West Coast
2. Wichita State 8-0 728 9 Missouri Valley
3. Creighton (1) 7-1 685 1 Missouri Valley
4. Murray State 5-1 671 4 Ohio Valley
5. Ohio 6-1 651 3 Mid-American
6. Illinois State 5-1 593 6 Missouri Valley
7. Bucknell 7-1 571 7 Patriot
8. Lehigh 6-2 525 8 Patriot
9. Belmont 5-2 508 5 Ohio Valley
10. Saint Mary's 5-2 458 12 West Coast
11. Middle Tennessee 5-2 436 10 Sun Belt
12. South Dakota State 6-2 407 13 Summit
13. BYU 5-3 396 11 West Coast
14. Northern Iowa 4-3 363 14 Missouri Valley
15. Davidson 4-3 318 15 Southern
16. Arkon [sic] 4-2 286 17 Mid-American
17. Utah State 4-1 255 18 Big West
18. Valparaiso 5-2 232 16 Horizon
19. Louisiana Tech 7-1 169 NR WAC
20. College of Charleston 5-2 135 NR Southern
21. Loyola MD 7-2 130 21 Metro Atlantic
22. UIC 6-1 107 NR Horizon
23. Eastern Kentucky 7-0 86 NR Ohio Valley
24. Cal State Northridge 6-2 71 23 Big West
25. Albany 6-2 61 NR America East
OTHERS RECEIVING VOTES: Cleveland State 46, Florida Gulf Coast 44, Stephen F. Austin 43, Mercer 38, George Mason 34, Santa Clara 25, Western Kentucky 22, Western Michigan 22, North Dakota State 21, Indiana State 20, Pacific 17, North Texas 14, Oral Roberts 14, Southern Illinois 14, Bradley 11, Kent State 11, San Fransisco 11, Jacksonville State 10, Hawaii 8, Iona 7, Wright State 6, Drexel 5, Loyola Chicago 5, Radford 3, Vermont 3, Bryant 2, Eastern Michigan 2, Sacramento State 1, Stony Brook 1.
Valpo is #20 in the new Mid-Major poll. This week last year, Valpo was #22 in the same poll, and that was before three of the bad December losses.
http://www.collegeinsider.com/mens-mid-major-top-25.php (http://www.collegeinsider.com/mens-mid-major-top-25.php)
To amplify that a little bit.
Update: December 10th, 2012
1. Wichita State (24) 9-0 737 2 Missouri Valley
2. Creighton (1) 9-1 732 3 Missouri Valley
3. Gonzaga (6) 9-1 727 1 West Coast
4. Murray State 7-1 670 4 Ohio Valley
5. Bucknell 8-1 634 7 Patriot
6. Lehigh 8-2 554 8 Patriot
7. Ohio 7-2 539 5 Mid-American
8. Belmont 6-2 517 9 Ohio Valley
9. Saint Mary's 6-2 510 10 West Coast
10. Illinois State 6-3 475 6 Missouri Valley
11. Middle Tennessee 7-2 465 11 Sun Belt
12. Northern Iowa 6-3 397 14 Missouri Valley
13. BYU 6-3 378 13 West Coast
14. South Dakota State 8-3 330 12 Summit
15. Utah State 5-1 308 17 WAC
16. UIC 8-1 296 22 Horizon
17. Davidson 5-4 288 15 Southern
18. Eastern Kentucky 9-0 244 23 Ohio Valley
19. Akron 4-3 211 16 Mid-American
20. Valparaiso 6-3 164 18 Horizon
21. Louisiana Tech 8-2 132 19 WAC
22. Albany 8-2 120 25 America East
23. Loyola MD 8-3 93 21 Metro Atlantic
24. Western Kentucky 8-2 66 NR Sun Belt
25. North Dakota State 8-2 52 NR Summit
OTHERS RECEIVING VOTES: Stephen F Austin 49, College of Charleston 45, Florida Gulf Coast 44, Oral Roberts 36, Cal State Northridge 30, Wright State 25, Indiana State 22, Bradley 21, Eastern Michigan 20, Long Beach State 15, Jacksonville State 12, North Texas 12, Weber State 12, Stony Brook 10, Pacific 9, UNC Ashville 9, Montana 8, Detorit 7, Loyola Chicago 7, Santa Clara 7, Western Illinois 6, Cleveland State 5, San Fransisco 5, Elon 4, Evansville 4, Western Michigan 4, George Mason 3, Canisius 2, Robert Morris 2, Bryant 1, Northwestern State 1.
6 of the 9 teams in the conference are at least getting votes. that's got to say something about the conference as a whole, despite some of those losses that have led to the 'the sky is falling' mentality of a few people around here...
Quote from: vuweathernerd on December 12, 2012, 02:13:15 PM6 of the 9 teams in the conference are at least getting votes. that's got to say something about the conference as a whole, despite some of those losses that have led to the 'the sky is falling' mentality of a few people around here...
I've never been a fan of rankings, and I don't think the sky is falling, but we are a decent-but-not-elite mid-major team so far this year. If we were to play a schedule of power conference teams, or even teams in a mid-power conference such as the A-10, we would lose 90 percent of the games. Fortunately, we play in a low-power conference.
Quote from: atkins on December 12, 2012, 04:42:52 PMIf we were to play a schedule of power conference teams, or even teams in a mid-power conference such as the A-10, we would lose 90 percent of the games. Fortunately, we play in a low-power conference.
If we were an A-10 member this year we would be top half with a winning record (if fully healthy) minimum. I will let others debate our placement in the real power conferences.
Quote from: justducky on December 12, 2012, 05:04:15 PM
Quote from: atkins on December 12, 2012, 04:42:52 PMIf we were to play a schedule of power conference teams, or even teams in a mid-power conference such as the A-10, we would lose 90 percent of the games. Fortunately, we play in a low-power conference.
If we were an A-10 member this year we would be top half with a winning record (if fully healthy) minimum. I will let others debate our placement in the real power conferences.
I'm as frustrated as the next guy with our performances in the 3 losses. That said, I am confident that this team WILL put the pieces together and be better than last year. Later in the month I'll start a prediction poll for our conference record, but I'll say right now that my personal prediction will be to improve on last year's 14-4.
Quote from: justducky on December 12, 2012, 05:04:15 PM
Quote from: atkins on December 12, 2012, 04:42:52 PMIf we were to play a schedule of power conference teams, or even teams in a mid-power conference such as the A-10, we would lose 90 percent of the games. Fortunately, we play in a low-power conference.
If we were an A-10 member this year we would be top half with a winning record (if fully healthy) minimum. I will let others debate our placement in the real power conferences.
And what would you base that on? You do realize that Valpo has exactly one win over the RPR top 200 (#153)? Right now the A10 has 3 teams with an RPI below 153. That means the other 13 would be the best wins on Valpo's resume.
As for the power conference...Valpo can't beat anybody in a power conference (see Nebraska), so I can't see them finishing in anything but the bottom of a BCS conference. Of course that would change if they were actually IN a power conference, as they'd get used to playing those teams.
That doesn't mean I don't want them to step up to that level, but the results so far say it's unlikely.
Quote from: milanmiracle on December 12, 2012, 07:57:29 PMAnd what would you base that on? You do realize that Valpo has exactly one win over the RPR top 200 (#153)? Right now the A10 has 3 teams with an RPI below 153. That means the other 13 would be the best wins on Valpo's resume.
Ok Milan, because I knew that you would likely respond and I might have even baited you into it; I will not now complain about wasting my time telling you things that you already know. So lets start this by agreeing to throw all that early season RPI crap out of our mutual window because it has no meaning. We can start treating RPI with a little respect about early to mid February. In fact there are today several A-10 schools that I would argue could rise significantly between now and then, but many others should be far lower. So what is your arguement, that since we have lost on the road to two teams we should have lost to, blew another opportunity because we were short 2 1/2 people (Neb and Buggs injury) and other than that haven't played anybody thusly we are a crap team?
My take is that at full strength we would match up favorably or competitively against all of the A10 at the ARC and against almost all of them on the road. We bring back a successful veteran team to which key additions have been made, and it should be a team that is hungry for greater things. Good returning teams that make solid additions rarely regress and usually take big steps forward. When such a team does stall or fall (barring injury) it is most often a problem of confidence, coaching, or the coaching of confidence. Bryce has a big job on his hands in the next few weeks to make sure that this gets turned around now, or else the confidence thing could turn into a tailspin death spiral with predictable results. I do not expect this to happen but if it does then I think those of you who are worried about Bryce being snatched away to a big time job may have much, much less to worry about.
Milan, I have never tried that personal message feature to see if it works, but maybe we could set up a little half time recreational, air clearing, barking match in an attempt to find out why we so frequently disagree. Anyway if you are interested lets see what we can do. I should be at the ARC for most of the remaining big games and a few that are not so big. Hey, this isn't an attempt to flush me out without camouflage is it? ;)
Quote from: justducky on December 13, 2012, 01:22:29 AMGood returning teams that make solid additions rarely regress and usually take big steps forward. When such a team does stall or fall (barring injury) it is most often a problem of confidence, coaching, or the coaching of confidence. Bryce has a big job on his hands in the next few weeks to make sure that this gets turned around now, or else the confidence thing could turn into a tailspin death spiral with predictable results. I do not expect this to happen
When this Valpo team mentioned above does actually show up for a game you will let me know, okay? I have not seen them play yet. What I have seen is a team that has way too many turnovers, has games where nobody shows up to score except Broekhoff and gets behind way too far against quality competition. Screw the "we're not at full strength yet" crap. Every team in the NCAA is dealing with injuries, sickness and the like. This is what is so frustrating for VU fans this year. We know this team has much more potential but just doesn't have the intestinal fortitude to bring it out of themselves.
Somehow I have more enthusiasm for this when I expect us to be moving _up_ in the polls. We actually did this/last week. But probably not next.
It is a little funny that, in a year when the Horizon feels like it has more 200+ teams than 200-, we've consistently had five teams picking up votes.
Update: December 17th, 2012
1. Creighton (23) 10-1 764 2 Missouri Valley
2. Gonzaga (7) 10-1 730 3 West Coast
3. Wichita State 9-1 721 1 Missouri Valley
4. Murray State (1) 8-1 682 4 Ohio Valley
5. Bucknell 9-1 644 5 Patriot
6. Lehigh 8-2 586 6 Patriot
7. Saint Mary's 7-2 549 9 West Coast
8. Illinois State 7-3 494 10 Mid-American
9. BYU 7-3 487 13 West Coast
10. Belmont 7-3 486 8 Ohio Valley
11. Ohio 7-3 431 7 Mid-American
12. Middle Tennessee 7-3 423 11 Sun Belt
13. South Dakota State 9-3 353 14 Summit
14. Utah State 6-1 350 15 WAC
15. UIC 9-1 348 16 Horizon
16. Northern Iowa 6-4 302 12 Missouri Valley
17. Davidson 6-4 274 17 Southern
18. Valparaiso 7-3 230 20 Horizon
19. Eastern Kentucky 9-1 209 18 Ohio Valley
20. Albany 9-2 192 22 America East
21. Loyola MD 9-3 115 23 Metro Atlantic
22. Santa Clara 8-2 98 NR West Coast
23. Akron 4-4 97 19 Mid-American
24. Western Kentucky 8-3 70 24 Sun Belt
25. North Dakota State 9-3 69 25 Summit
OTHERS RECEIVING VOTES: Stephen F Austin 49, Louisiana Tech 48, Florida Gulf Coast 42, Detroit 33, Indiana State 27, Jacksonville State 24, Cal State Northridge 21, Western Michigan 20, Bradley 17, George Mason 16, Oral Roberts 14, Stony Brook 13, Weber State 12, William & Mary 8, Loyola Chicago 7, Wright State 6, Robert Morris 4, College of Charleston 3, Eastern Michigan 3, Bryant 1, Northwestern State 1, Pacific 1, San Fransisco 1.
This may get shaken up more than a little tomorrow (Murray State lost... twice? South Dakota State won at New Mexico before losing at North Dakota State. UIC lost twice more on the road. We beat Murray State, etc.). Let me grab last week's before it disappears.
Updated: December 24th, 2012
1. Creighton (26) 11-1 769 1 Missouri Valley
2. Gonzaga (4) 11-1 746 2 West Coast
3. Wichita State (1) 11-1 694 3 Missouri Valley
4. Lehigh 9-2 656 6 Patriot
5. Murray State 11-2 641 4 Ohio Valley
6. Bucknell 11-2 600 5 Patriot
7. Illinois State 9-3 578 8 Missouri Valley
8. Belmont 8-3 561 10 Ohio Valley
9. Utah State 9-1 489 14 WAC
10. Saint Mary's 8-3 484 7 West Coast
11. Middle Tennessee 9-3 457 12 Sun Belt
12. BYU 8-4 438 9 West Coast
13. South Dakota State 10-4 383 13 Summit
14. Ohio 8-4 353 11 Mid-American
15. Santa Clara 11-2 304 22 West Coast
16. Northern Iowa 7-5 283 16 Missouri Valley
17. UIC 9-3 246 15 Horizon
18. Davidson 6-5 198 17 Southern
18. Valparaiso 9-4 198 18 Horizon
20. Loyola MD 9-3 165 21 Metro Atlantic
21. Akron 6-4 130 23 Mid-American
22. Eastern Kentucky 10-2 120 19 Ohio Valley
22. North Dakota State 10-3 120 25 Summit
24. Albany 9-3 108 20 America East
25. Stephen F. Austin 9-1 55 NR Southland
OTHERS RECEIVING VOTES: Louisiana Tech 54, Canisius 34, Cal State Northridge 25, Fairfield 24, George Mason 23, Jacksonville State 23, Detroit 19, Western Kentucky 18, Indiana State 12, Loyola Chicago 10, William & Mary 10, Western Michigan 9, Stony Brook 8, Florida Gulf Coast 7, Oral Roberts 6, Western Illinois 6, Wright State 4, Northwestern State 2, Robert Morris 2, Weber State 2, Bryant 1.
Valpo moves up 6 spots to number 12 and stands as the only Horizon League team in the new Mid-Major Top 25 poll as we get set for conference play:
http://www.collegeinsider.com/mens-mid-major-top-25.php (http://www.collegeinsider.com/mens-mid-major-top-25.php)
Quote from: valpopal on December 31, 2012, 06:54:52 PM
Valpo moves up 6 spots to number 12 and stands as the only Horizon League team in the new Mid-Major Top 25 poll as we get set for conference play:
http://www.collegeinsider.com/mens-mid-major-top-25.php (http://www.collegeinsider.com/mens-mid-major-top-25.php)
When did we return to the Summit League? ;)
wh, must have been a back door deal, hiding behind Boise St. returning to the Mountain West? :P
Yeah, they're not exactly known for their careful editing. Valpo the second biggest climber of the week, on their win in Murray. We're now at our highest position of the year. Murray State drops to 9th.
(Second biggest climber unless you count Indiana State, entering the poll at number 21). The biggest climber is North Dakota State, by virtue of beating South Dakota State. UIC drops out of the top 25, after losing on the road at Toledo, notching the third of three consecutive losses (but only one new this week). Northern Iowa saw the single biggest drop.
In the AP and Coaches' Poll we've got Butler at 17/20, and New Mexico at 20/23.
In other rankings, the League's RPI has been cleaned up a bit, sitting solidly at #12. UIC's down to 70, Detroit at 99 (with league-leading SOS at 89), Valpo 114, Loyola 123. Green Bay's at 235, and Milwaukee still languishes at 330. Among computer rankings, Pomeroy and Sagarin have Valpo on top (87, 79) while BBstate.com has UIC at 66 to Valpo's 91.
And then, for the archive, the mid-major top 25.
Update: December 31st, 2012
1. Creighton (26) 12-1 769 1 Missouri Valley
2. Gonzaga (4) 12-1 747 2 West Coast
3. Wichita State (1) 12-1 696 3 Missouri Valley
4. Bucknell 12-2 642 6 Patriot
5. Saint Mary's 11-3 637 10 West Coast
6. Lehigh 9-3 591 4 Patriot
7. Utah State 10-1 571 9 WAC
8. BYU 10-4 566 12 West Coast
9. Murray State 9-3 494 5 Ohio Valley
10. Illinois State 9-4 476 7 Missouri Valley
11. Middle Tennessee 10-3 459 11 Sun Belt
12. Valparaiso 10-4 416 18 Summit [sic]
13. Belmont 9-4 395 8 Ohio Valley
14. North Dakota State 11-3 323 22 Summit
15. Santa Clara 11-3 318 15 West Coast
16. South Dakota State 10-5 277 13 Summit
17. Akron 8-4 222 21 Mid-American
18. Davidson 7-5 191 18 Southern
19. Ohio 8-5 170 14 Mid-American
20. Albany 10-3 144 24 America East
21. Indiana State 8-4 104 NR Missouri Valley
22. Stephen F. Austin 10-1 101 25 Southland
23. Eastern Kentucky 10-3 99 22 Ohio Valley
24. Fairfield 9-5 92 NR Metro Atlantic
25. Bryant 7-4 86 NR Northeast
OTHERS RECEIVING VOTES: Western Illinois 73, UIC 65, Louisiana Tech 49, Loyola MD 40, Northern Iowa 40, Detroit 29, George Mason 23, Loyola Chicago 22, Jacksonville State 18, Canisius 17, Western Kentucky 12, Cal State Northridge 11, William & Mary 10, Montana 9, Weber State 9, Harvard 8, Robert Morris 8, Stony Brook 8, Bradley 7, Florida Gulf Coast 7, Mercer 6, Western Michigan 5, College of Charleston 4, Wright State 4, Elon 2, Oral Roberts 2, Southern 2, Cal State Fullerton 1, Northwestern State 1.
For what it is worth: Ryan has been selected StatSheet Horizon League Player of the Week (Kevin an honorable mention) and Bobby has been chosen StatSheet Horizon League Sixth-Man of the Week (Jordan a runner-up):
http://valpodaily.com/valparaiso-basketball/conf-potw/ryan-broekhoff-wins-statsheet-horizon-player-week-december-31st-2012 (http://valpodaily.com/valparaiso-basketball/conf-potw/ryan-broekhoff-wins-statsheet-horizon-player-week-december-31st-2012)
I'm sure Gonzaga will be the new number 1 with their win at Oklahoma State last night. They have had a stellar season thus far.
Despite losing at home, Valpo only drops 2 spots to #14. Great show of respect for the Horizon.
http://www.collegeinsider.com/mens-mid-major-top-25.php (http://www.collegeinsider.com/mens-mid-major-top-25.php)
Yeah, I'm surprised we didn't drop further. I was prepared for as low as #20. Maybe the sky isn't really falling ;)
Detroit enters the poll for the first time this season.
In the AP and USA Today polls, Gonzaga's at 9/8, Creighton at 13/11 (flipping their order, below), Butler's at 14/17, Wichita State enters at 23/RV and New Mexico drops to 25/RV (having lost at... wait for it... St. Louis).
Update: January 7th, 2013
1. Creighton (23) 14-1 765 1 Missouri Valley
2. Gonzaga (8) 15-1 750 2 West Coast
3. Wichita State 14-1 713 3 Missouri Valley
4. Bucknell 13-3 656 4 Patriot
5. Saint Mary's 12-3 617 5 West Coast
6. Utah State 13-1 600 7 WAC
7. BYU 12-4 577 8 West Coast
8. Murray State 11-3 553 9 Ohio Valley
9. Lehigh 9-4 494 6 Patriot
10. Belmont 11-4 463 13 Ohio Valley
11. North Dakota State 13-3 440 14 Summit
12. Middle Tennessee 12-4 398 11 Sun Belt
13. Akron 9-4 348 17 Mid-American
14. Valparaiso 11-5 330 12 Horizon
15. Ohio 9-5 316 19 Mid-American
16. Santa Clara 12-4 310 15 West Coast
17. Stephen F. Austin 12-1 262 22 Southland
18. Eastern Kentucky 12-3 193 23 Ohio Valley
19. South Dakota State 11-6 162 16 Summit
20. Davidson 8-6 161 18 Southern
21. Bryant 9-4 134 25 Northeast
22. Western Illinois 12-3 92 NR Summit
23. Indiana State 9-5 78 21 Missouri Valley
24. Fairfield 10-6 77 24 Metro Atlantic
25. Detroit 10-5 66 NR Horizon
OTHERS RECEIVING VOTES: Illinois State 51, Louisiana Tech 50, Albany 42, Loyola MD 41, UIC 35, Loyola Chicago 30, Northern Iowa 28, Wright State 28, Stony Brook 27, Weber State 22, Montana 21, College of Charleston 20, Western Michigan 19, Harvard 18, Vermont 18, Bradley 16, George Mason 15, Canisius 7, Oral Roberts 7, Kent State 6, Northwestern State 6, Niagara 5, Hawaii 4, Florida Gulf Coast 2, Southern 2.
Interesting to note that there are 3 Summit teams, yet their conference RPI is 18th versus the HL at 12th. Also, WIU is 5-0 in conference??
Quote from: valpotx on January 08, 2013, 03:10:34 AM
Interesting to note that there are 3 Summit teams, yet their conference RPI is 18th versus the HL at 12th. Also, WIU is 5-0 in conference??
But for a prior commitment, I was going to stop in at Western Hall to see UIC's game there on my way back from the Oakland game (the next day, obviously).
Yeah, I've been surprised at them, too.
New weekly Horizon League basketball wrap-up show:
http://www.horizonleague.org/blog/mens-basketball-weekly---january-8.html (http://www.horizonleague.org/blog/mens-basketball-weekly---january-8.html)
I haven't seen this posted. The College Hoops Daily All-Conference Picks for the 1st Half of the Season:
HORIZON
G: Ray McCallum (Detroit)
G: Kendrick Perry (Youngstown State)
F: Ryan Broekhoff (Valparaiso)
F: Ben Averkamp (Loyola IL)
C: Alec Brown (WI Green Bay)
I'd still pick Broekhoff over McCallum, especially since Ryan has twice been conference player of the week. Also, Kevin's stats are about the same as Alec Brown's (pts/gm KVW 12.1 - AB 11.5, rebs/gm (KVW 5.5 - AB 6.7), despite Brown averaging 5 more minutes per game thus far.
http://www.collegehoopsdaily.com/all-conference-picks-for-the-1st-half-of-the-season/ (http://www.collegehoopsdaily.com/all-conference-picks-for-the-1st-half-of-the-season/)
The all name team. KVW was going to have the toughest time repeating with a prospect like Alec Brown playing the same position.
Valpo stays at #14. Wright State at #23 and Detroit receiving votes.
http://www.collegeinsider.com/mens-mid-major-top-25.php (http://www.collegeinsider.com/mens-mid-major-top-25.php)
Quote from: valpopal on January 09, 2013, 03:48:05 PM
I haven't seen this posted. The College Hoops Daily All-Conference Picks for the 1st Half of the Season:
HORIZON
G: Ray McCallum (Detroit)
G: Kendrick Perry (Youngstown State)
F: Ryan Broekhoff (Valparaiso)
F: Ben Averkamp (Loyola IL)
C: Alec Brown (WI Green Bay)
I'd still pick Broekhoff over McCallum, especially since Ryan has twice been conference player of the week. Also, Kevin's stats are about the same as Alec Brown's (pts/gm KVW 12.1 - AB 11.5, rebs/gm (KVW 5.5 - AB 6.7), despite Brown averaging 5 more minutes per game thus far.
http://www.collegehoopsdaily.com/all-conference-picks-for-the-1st-half-of-the-season/ (http://www.collegehoopsdaily.com/all-conference-picks-for-the-1st-half-of-the-season/)
Side-by-side comparison between KVW and Brown:
http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?p2=alec-brown&p1=kevin-van-wijk (http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?p2=alec-brown&p1=kevin-van-wijk)
Among big names in the HL in preseason polls, Alec Brown has to be the biggest underachiever by far. For all intents and purposes, he has been in a season long slump. At 7-1, incredibly he is shooting an anemic 39% from the field. Earlier in the season he was completely neutralized by several OOC opponents with bigger players than he typically sees in the HL. He seems to be coming around as of late, now that he has a clear size advantage. Right now he isn't 1st team anything. He's another guy living on reputation. In his case he was projected by some NBA scouting services to be a 2nd round draft choice. He's no more a 2nd rounder right now than Ray, Jr. is a 1st rounder.
That said, to date Kevin has not been playing like a 1st teamer, either.
Wow, WIU is 14-3 now. I never thought that I would see the day...
It's a big IF that we go to the tourney this year, but since it looks like Butler would be a 4 seed with current projections, I thought that it would be fun to speculate. What if we are a 13 seed, and they are a 4 seed? I would absolutely love if the committee placed us against them, and increase our run to 5 in a row :)
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology)
Quote from: valpotx on January 15, 2013, 11:34:34 AMWow, WIU is 14-3 now. I never thought that I would see the day...
Their SOS is even worse than ours! The RPI version has them ranked #324 to our #282.
Quote from: valpotx on January 15, 2013, 12:12:13 PM
It's a big IF that we go to the tourney this year, but since it looks like Butler would be a 4 seed with current projections, I thought that it would be fun to speculate. What if we are a 13 seed, and they are a 4 seed? I would absolutely love if the committee placed us against them, and increase our run to 5 in a row :)
Boy - do I love that thought.... We wouldn't come in feeling like an underdog.
Brown's top-line stats are superficially OK (11.9 points, 6.8 rebounds) but anybody watching games or looking more deeply into the stats knows he's no first teamer at this point. But I probably wouldn't go with KVW either.
I'd say:
Broekhoff (POY)
McCallum
Perry
Averkamp
Damian Eargle of Youngstown
Quote from: Pathfinder on January 16, 2013, 11:04:42 AMBut I probably wouldn't go with KVW either.
What do you think of Van Wijk now? ;D
Possible first teamer? You would probably want Minnerath as a first teamer despite his poor defense.
Quote from: Smj on January 15, 2013, 11:25:42 PM
Quote from: valpotx on January 15, 2013, 12:12:13 PM
It's a big IF that we go to the tourney this year, but since it looks like Butler would be a 4 seed with current projections, I thought that it would be fun to speculate. What if we are a 13 seed, and they are a 4 seed? I would absolutely love if the committee placed us against them, and increase our run to 5 in a row :)
Boy - do I love that thought.... We wouldn't come in feeling like an underdog.
With Valpo now leading the Horizon, they'll be appearing this week in the "bracketology" from Lunardi, Palm and others. They might not be matched up with Butler, but they'll certainly be in the vicinity.
With two wins, Valpo could also be moving up the mid-major rankings. Several teams above them, like Creighton and Gonzaga, lost so I'd expect them to be top-12ish or so. Not sure if they'll get votes in the AP or Coaches poll, but if they keep winning, they'll be back there soon.
I'd say KVW has put himself right back into the first teamed conversation.
Quote from: HC on January 20, 2013, 10:38:08 PM
I'd say KVW has put himself right back into the first teamed conversation.
It seems we have rediscovered the big guy. Looking for him MUCH more in the post the last two games. Hope the trend continues.
Quote from: EddieCabot on January 14, 2013, 05:58:17 PM
Valpo stays at #14. Wright State at #23 and Detroit receiving votes.
http://www.collegeinsider.com/mens-mid-major-top-25.php (http://www.collegeinsider.com/mens-mid-major-top-25.php)
Just to continue the tradition of archiving the whole list here, before it disappears. Last weeks, which will disappear with today's update.
Update: January 14th, 2013
1. Creighton (24) 16-1 768 1 Missouri Valley
2. Gonzaga (7) 16-1 751 2 West Coast
3. Bucknell 14-3 687 4 Patriot
4. Utah State 14-1 669 6 WAC
5. Wichita State 15-2 624 3 Missouri Valley
6. BYU 14-4 602 7 West Coast
7. Saint Mary's 13-4 587 5 West Coast
8. Belmont 13-4 498 10 Ohio Valley
9. Lehigh 11-4 495 9 Patriot
10. North Dakota State 15-3 450 11 Summit
11. Murray State 12-4 444 8 Ohio Valley
12. Middle Tennessee 14-4 429 12 Sun Belt
13. Akron 11-4 375 13 Mid-American
14. Valparaiso 13-5 353 14 Horizon15. Stephen F. Austin 14-1 340 17 Southland
16. Ohio 11-5 278 15 Mid-American
17. Easten Kentucky 14-3 273 18 Ohio Valley
18. Western Illinois 14-3 212 22 Summit
19. South Dakota State 13-6 202 19 Summit
20. Davidson 9-6 169 20 Southern
21. Bryant 11-4 138 21 Northeast
22. Louisiana Tech 14-3 137 NR WAC
23. Wright State 13-4 68 NR Horizon24. Weber State 10-3 60 NR Big Sky
25. Montana 10-4 48 NR Big Sky
OTHERS RECEIVING VOTES: Stony Brook 46, Santa Clara 44, Albany 42, Evansville 36,
Detroit 31, Indiana State 31, Illinois State 25, Northern Iowa 22, Vermont 17, Long Beach State 15, Harvard 13, Northeastern 11, Northwestern State 11, College of Charleston 10, Iona 10, Jacksonville State 10, Kent State 7, Oral Roberts 7, UNC Ashville 7, Loyola MD 6, Florida Gulf Coast 5, Mercer 4, Southern 4, Fairfield 2, San Diego 1.
http://www.collegeinsider.com/mens-mid-major-top-25.php (http://www.collegeinsider.com/mens-mid-major-top-25.php) for Monday, January 21 (Billy Donlon is the HL voter)
1. Gonzaga (27) 17-2 771 2 West Coast BBuster: Not Playing
2. Wichita State (2) 17-2 740 5 Missouri Valley BBuster: Home
3. Bucknell (1) 16-3 699 3 Patriot BBuster: Not Playing
4. Creighton (1) 17-2 692 1 Missouri Valley BBuster: Away
5. Belmont 15-4 631 8 Ohio Valley BBuster: Home
6. Saint Mary's 15-4 619 7 West Coast BBuster: Home
7. BYU 15-5 572 6 West Coast BBuster: Not Playing
8. Lehigh 12-4 504 9 Patriot BBuster: Not Playing
9. Middle Tennessee 16-4 498 12 Sun Belt BBuster: Not Playing
10. Stephen F. Austin 16-1 453 15 Southland BBuster: Away
11. Murray State 14-4 451 11 Ohio Valley BBuster: Home
12. Utah State 14-3 408 4 WAC BBuster: Home
13. Akron 13-4 396 13 Mid-American BBuster: Home
14. Valparaiso 15-5 374 14 Horizon BBuster: Home
15. North Dakota State 16-4 341 10 Summit BBuster: Away
16. Ohio 13-5 305 16 Mid-American BBuster: Away
17. Bryant 13-4 245 21 Northeast BBuster: Not Playing
18. Eastern Kentucky 15-4 235 17 Ohio Valley BBuster: Away
19. South Dakota State 15-6 218 19 Summit BBuster: Away
20. Western Illinois 15-4 196 18 Summit BBuster: Home
21. Louisiana Tech 16-3 146 22 WAC BBuster: Not Playing
22. Weber State 13-3 109 24 Big Sky BBuster: Away
23. Montana 12-4 102 25 Big Sky BBuster: Away
24. Davidson 11-7 79 20 Southern BBuster: Home
25. Albany 16-4 68 NR America East BBuster: Away
OTHERS RECEIVING VOTES: Indiana State 47 (H), Wright State 32 (H), Santa Clara 30 (NP), Vermont 18 (H), Stony Brook 16 (NP), Niagara 11 (H), Northeastern 11 (NP), Columbia 8 (NP), Detroit 8 (A), Harvard 8 (NP), New Mexico State 7 (NP), Southern 7 (NP), Evansville 5 (A), Oral Roberts 5 (H), Denver 4 (A), Long Beach State 4 (H), Northern Iowa 2 (H), North Carolina Central 1 (NP).
15 of the top 43 are not participating in the Buster.
What'd Stephen F. Austin do? Win a couple of low RPI home games? It's like the voters just noticed they had only one loss. And failed to notice the #314 SOS. And that four of those 16 wins are non-D1. I notice they picked up votes in the USA Today Coaches' poll, also.
The Southland absolutely sucks as a basketball conference. ORU should win that conference every year. In baseball and football it would be a different story
Sun 1:01PM ET / Jan 20, 2013
StatSeed is StatSheet's postseason projections for all of Division I, including the NCAA Tournament, National Invitation Tournament (NIT), College Basketball Invitational (CBI), and the CollegeInsider.com Postseason Tournament (CIT). Read more about how StatSeed is calculated.
StatSheet is now projecting Valparaiso to be a 14 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Crusaders are currently on track for an automatic bid and will need it to retain the invite as they're #78 in the StatSheet StatRank. They have a 15-5 overall record and a 5-1 record in the Horizon. Over the last four games, Valparaiso looked strong with wins against Wright State, Detroit, Milwaukee, and UIC.
Valparaiso has a 2-3 record against the RPI Top 100 that includes an 0-2 record against the RPI Top 50 and an 0-1 record against AP ranked teams. While the Crusaders have no quality wins, they're weighed down by two bad losses including RPI #167 Loyola (Chicago) and RPI #181 Oakland.
NBC's brackets currently have Valpo as a #14 seed matched up against a #3 seed named...Butler. Wouldn't it be nice to imagine?
http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/01/22/latest-bracket-arizona-grabs-no-1-seed-in-west-region/ (http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/01/22/latest-bracket-arizona-grabs-no-1-seed-in-west-region/)
That would be a dream matchup for us. We are not intimidated at all by them, and regardless of Clarke, I think we beat them again
Valpo also a 14 per Lunardi.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology)
Also a 14 per Jerry Palm's latest, matched up with IU.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology)
One more:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/college-basketball/news/20130122/bracket-watch/index.html (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/college-basketball/news/20130122/bracket-watch/index.html)
I like the SI matchup.... Creighton, in Kansas City advancing to North Carolina... Not sure about the picks... they have Butler as a 2, on the same line with Arizona, Louisville and Florida? Really?
They are currently ranked in the top 10 so why not a 2 seed?
Quote from: HC on January 22, 2013, 09:21:05 PM
They are currently ranked in the top 10 so why not a 2 seed?
Valpo a 14 and Butler a 2???? It's almost as if you're insinuating that Butler is head and shoulders better than Valpo.
They are what they are, and they will probably move up another spot with Louisville losing again.
But, we'd definitely take um to the wood shed in a head to head matchup. :thumbsup:
Glad I stopped by. The turn in this thread is comical. :lol:
I suppose we'll move up 1-3 places in the mid-major polling this week. Stephen Austin and Murray State, not too far above us, notched losses. And Utah State's in free fall.
#12? #13? There's only one five loss team above us in the polls...
Bleacher report expects us to run the table in conference and go 17-1
Quote from: truth219 on January 28, 2013, 01:16:02 PM
Bleacher report expects us to run the table in conference and go 17-1
Link? "Bleacher Report expects..." could very well be " Some high school kid expects..."
http://m.bleacherreport.com/articles/1498535-ncaa-basketball-rankings-mid-major-rankings-for-week-13/page/15 (http://m.bleacherreport.com/articles/1498535-ncaa-basketball-rankings-mid-major-rankings-for-week-13/page/15)
Quote from: truth219 on January 28, 2013, 01:16:02 PM
Bleacher report expects us to run the table in conference and go 17-1
Not quite. "After watching the Crusaders continually find ways to win, it would not be surprising to see them run the table and finish 17-1."
I would not be surprised either, but I don't expect us to win out. Looking forward to the next 5 weeks!
Quote from: covufan on January 28, 2013, 02:34:45 PM
Quote from: truth219 on January 28, 2013, 01:16:02 PM
Bleacher report expects us to run the table in conference and go 17-1
Not quite. "After watching the Crusaders continually find ways to win, it would not be surprising to see them run the table and finish 17-1."
I would not be surprised either, but I don't expect us to win out. Looking forward to the next 5 weeks!
looking at our schedule, it wouldn't be necessarily surprising, but i wouldn't bet on it either. besides the bracketbuster, we still have detroit coming to the arc, and they beat us by 20 in their last visit. and road games at green bay, wright state, and (i'm probably gonna take flak for this) loyola. we could win out, or we could lose up to 4 games the rest of the way. nothing from that range would really surprise me.
Quote from: truth219 on January 28, 2013, 01:16:02 PM
Bleacher report expects us to run the table in conference and go 17-1
Friends don't let friends read Bleacher Report...
mentioned at the bottom of this article, almost on the pyramid!
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/blog/eye-on-college-basketball/21620773/pyramid-for-only-second-time-this-year-a-change-at-the-top (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/blog/eye-on-college-basketball/21620773/pyramid-for-only-second-time-this-year-a-change-at-the-top)
Quote from: vuweathernerd on January 28, 2013, 03:31:11 PMQuote from: covufan on January 28, 2013, 02:34:45 PMQuote from: truth219 on January 28, 2013, 01:16:02 PMBleacher report expects us to run the table in conference and go 17-1
Not quite. "After watching the Crusaders continually find ways to win, it would not be surprising to see them run the table and finish 17-1." I would not be surprised either, but I don't expect us to win out. Looking forward to the next 5 weeks!
looking at our schedule, it wouldn't be necessarily surprising, but i wouldn't bet on it either. besides the bracketbuster, we still have detroit coming to the arc, and they beat us by 20 in their last visit. and road games at green bay, wright state, and (i'm probably gonna take flak for this) loyola. we could win out, or we could lose up to 4 games the rest of the way. nothing from that range would really surprise me.
I would put Loyola in the large mid range mix in the HL. I would include Detroit (great offense, not enough discipline and below average head coach), Green Bay, Wright State (showing some scoring weaknesses but above average head coach), Youngstown St. and UIC.That leaves Milwaukee & Cleve. St. in the low range and of course Valpo has earned itself the high range alone.
Quote from: Valpo2010 on January 28, 2013, 03:40:10 PM
Quote from: truth219 on January 28, 2013, 01:16:02 PM
Bleacher report expects us to run the table in conference and go 17-1
Friends don't let friends read Bleacher Report...
Beyond the usual generalizations about B/R's poor journalistic practices, does anyone know anything specific about this specific author of this specific article and why he lacks credibility?
Quote from: wh on January 28, 2013, 05:18:10 PM
Quote from: Valpo2010 on January 28, 2013, 03:40:10 PM
Quote from: truth219 on January 28, 2013, 01:16:02 PM
Bleacher report expects us to run the table in conference and go 17-1
Friends don't let friends read Bleacher Report...
Beyond the usual generalizations about B/R's poor journalistic practices, does anyone know anything specific about this specific author of this specific article and why he lacks credibility?
Nobody does. Isn't that the point? A newspaper or website spends time detailing the credentials of their writers.
Quote from: bbtds on January 28, 2013, 05:22:27 PM
Quote from: wh on January 28, 2013, 05:18:10 PM
Quote from: Valpo2010 on January 28, 2013, 03:40:10 PM
Quote from: truth219 on January 28, 2013, 01:16:02 PM
Bleacher report expects us to run the table in conference and go 17-1
Friends don't let friends read Bleacher Report...
Beyond the usual generalizations about B/R's poor journalistic practices, does anyone know anything specific about this specific author of this specific article and why he lacks credibility?
Nobody does. Isn't that the point? A newspaper or website spends time detailing the credentials of their writers.
Quote from: wh on January 28, 2013, 05:18:10 PM
Quote from: Valpo2010 on January 28, 2013, 03:40:10 PM
Quote from: truth219 on January 28, 2013, 01:16:02 PM
Bleacher report expects us to run the table in conference and go 17-1
Friends don't let friends read Bleacher Report...
Beyond the usual generalizations about B/R's poor journalistic practices, does anyone know anything specific about this specific author of this specific article and why he lacks credibility?
http://bleacherreport.com/users/150584-jesse-kramer (http://bleacherreport.com/users/150584-jesse-kramer)
Yes. He's literally still in high school.
Quote from: wh on January 28, 2013, 05:18:10 PMBeyond the usual generalizations about B/R's poor journalistic practices, does anyone know anything specific about this specific author of this specific article and why he lacks credibility?
I hate that you made me give it more clicks to find the same info out.
author of such articles as
"Complete Preview for Loyola (Md.) Greyhounds vs. Manhattan Jaspers"
"LIU Basketball: How Julian Boyd's Season-Ending Injury Affects NEC Title Race"
Man--the stuff I am giving away for free on this site could be getting me DOLLARZ on Bleacher Report...
Lehigh got punished more than I expected for losing to Lafayette (they also beat #7 Bucknell), and we jump all the way to #10!
Utah State's really getting killed - they were nationally ranked in the _big_ polls just a couple of weeks ago, right? I guess they had multiple key injuries?
Update: January 28th, 2013
1. Gonzaga (29) 19-2 773 1 West Coast
2. Wichita State (2) 19-2 743 2 Missouri Valley
3. Belmont 17-4 668 5 Ohio Valley
4. Creighton 18-3 667 4 Missouri Valley
5. Saint Mary's 17-4 632 6 West Coast
6. Middle Tennessee 18-4 617 9 Sun Belt
7. Bucknell 17-4 576 3 Patriot
8. BYU 16-6 536 7 West Coast
9. Akron 15-4 513 13 Mid-American
10. Valparaiso 16-5 452 14 Horizon
11. Louisiana Tech 18-3 438 21 WAC
12. Stephen F. Austin 16-2 420 10 Southland
13. Lehigh 14-5 404 8 Patriot
14. Ohio 15-5 381 16 Mid-American
15. Murray State 15-5 327 11 Ohio Valley
16. Montana 14-4 252 23 Big Sky
17. North Dakota State 16-5 233 15 Summit
18. South Dakota State 16-6 232 19 Summit
19. Eastern Kentucky 16-5 204 18 Ohio Valley
20. Davidson 13-7 161 24 Southern
21. Western Illinois 16-5 127 20 Summit
22. Bryant 13-6 107 17 Northeast
23. Northeastern 13-7 89 NR Colonial
24. Stony Brook 15-5 80 NR America East
25. Niagara 13-8 73 NR Metro Atlantic
OTHERS RECEIVING VOTES: Indiana State 68, Utah State 58, Santa Clara 52, Weber State 29, Harvard 15, Northwestern State 14, Western Michigan 14, New Mexico State 13, Oral Roberts 12, Vermont 12, Denver 11, Wright State 9, Iona 8, Long Beach State 8, Albany 7, Elon 7, Southern 7, Detroit 5, Robert Morris 5, North Carolina Central 3, Charleston Southern 2, Loyola (MD) 1 .
Oh, to have Nebraska, Oakland and Loyola back :(
Quote from: VULB#62 on January 28, 2013, 06:32:47 PM
Oh, to have Nebraska, Oakland and Loyola back :(
No kidding. We'd be 19-2 and likely ranked in the full top 25.
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on January 28, 2013, 05:56:27 PM
Quote from: wh on January 28, 2013, 05:18:10 PMBeyond the usual generalizations about B/R's poor journalistic practices, does anyone know anything specific about this specific author of this specific article and why he lacks credibility?
I hate that you made me give it more clicks to find the same info out.
author of such articles as
"Complete Preview for Loyola (Md.) Greyhounds vs. Manhattan Jaspers"
"LIU Basketball: How Julian Boyd's Season-Ending Injury Affects NEC Title Race"
Man--the stuff I am giving away for free on this site could be getting me DOLLARZ on Bleacher Report...
How is this evidence of anything? The web has a gazillion amateur sports journalists and bloggers that report about every sport under the sun, including a couple of regular posters on this forum, pantheruwm in Milw, etc., etc. Some are trying to make money from it, others not. What makes the Bleacher Report any less credible than anyone else in this amateur arena?
Not a big deal either way, but I just never have understood the negativism.
They have been sipping too much of that Haterade.
Quote from: vuweathernerd on January 28, 2013, 07:31:42 PM
Quote from: VULB#62 on January 28, 2013, 06:32:47 PM
Oh, to have Nebraska, Oakland and Loyola back :(
No kidding. We'd be 19-2 and likely ranked in the full top 25.
And we could have lost to Kent State, Detroit and Wright State.
Quote from: vusupporter on January 28, 2013, 07:47:52 PM
Quote from: vuweathernerd on January 28, 2013, 07:31:42 PM
Quote from: VULB#62 on January 28, 2013, 06:32:47 PM
Oh, to have Nebraska, Oakland and Loyola back :(
No kidding. We'd be 19-2 and likely ranked in the full top 25.
And we could have lost to Kent State, Detroit and Wright State.
Very true. Always important to have that perspective.
Quote from: vusupporter on January 28, 2013, 07:47:52 PM
Quote from: vuweathernerd on January 28, 2013, 07:31:42 PM
Quote from: VULB#62 on January 28, 2013, 06:32:47 PM
Oh, to have Nebraska, Oakland and Loyola back :(
No kidding. We'd be 19-2 and likely ranked in the full top 25.
And we could have lost to Kent State, Detroit and Wright State.
very true
Quote from: wh on January 28, 2013, 07:38:33 PMNot a big deal either way, but I just never have understood the negativism.
Well, then I'll just have to post these for the Nth time on this forum until you actually read them.
Bleacher Report is unequivocally awful. At writing. At editing. At what they've done to the business model of sportswriting on the internet.
http://www.sfweekly.com/2012-10-03/news/bleacher-report-sports-journalism-internet-espn-news-technology/ (http://www.sfweekly.com/2012-10-03/news/bleacher-report-sports-journalism-internet-espn-news-technology/)
http://deadspin.com/5780983/bleacher-report-uses-japan-earthquake-as-excuse-for-sports-slideshow (http://deadspin.com/5780983/bleacher-report-uses-japan-earthquake-as-excuse-for-sports-slideshow)
The latter one comes from Deadspin, which is like Walmart making fun of QVC, but if it's true...
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on January 28, 2013, 08:43:31 PM
Quote from: wh on January 28, 2013, 07:38:33 PMNot a big deal either way, but I just never have understood the negativism.
Well, then I'll just have to post these for the Nth time on this forum until you actually read them.
Bleacher Report is unequivocally awful. At writing. At editing. At what they've done to the business model of sportswriting on the internet.
http://www.sfweekly.com/2012-10-03/news/bleacher-report-sports-journalism-internet-espn-news-technology/ (http://www.sfweekly.com/2012-10-03/news/bleacher-report-sports-journalism-internet-espn-news-technology/)
http://deadspin.com/5780983/bleacher-report-uses-japan-earthquake-as-excuse-for-sports-slideshow (http://deadspin.com/5780983/bleacher-report-uses-japan-earthquake-as-excuse-for-sports-slideshow)
The latter one comes from Deadspin, which is like Walmart making fun of QVC, but if it's true...
Now that you bring them to my attention, I do kind of recall seeing them before. They're interesting, no doubt, but I'm having a little problem understanding why Turner Broadcasting would pay $200 Million less than 6 months ago to purchase Bleacher Report. That's seems like a lot of money for a highly reputable business organization to pay for an enterprise with such abominable journalistic practices. That's the problem with on-line "news reporting" in general. You never know whether the critics are any more credible than those they're criticizing.
Quote from: wh on January 28, 2013, 10:55:18 PMYou never know whether the critics are any more credible than those they're criticizing.
Good point. I suppose to be honest it would apply to myself as well :/
Quote from: wh on January 28, 2013, 10:55:18 PMThey're interesting, no doubt, but I'm having a little problem understanding why Turner Broadcasting would pay $200 Million less than 6 months ago to purchase Bleacher Report.
Turner Broadcasting:
During 1984, Turner initiated Cable Music Channel, now defunct.
Turner initiated Cartoon Network on Thursday, October 1, 1992.
During 2003, Philip I. Kent succeeded Jamie Kellner as chairman. The WB Network was acquired during 2001 while Kellner was chairman, but returned to Warner Bros. during 2003 with the departure of Kellner.
During May 2006, Turner Broadcasting, which already owned 50% of Court TV, purchased the remaining half from Liberty Media.
Interactive/broadband sites
AdultSwim.com
CartoonNetwork.com
CNN.com
HLNtv.com
iReport.com
TBS.com
TCM.com
TNT.tv
truTV.com
TheSmokingGun.com
bleacherreport.com
thingx.com
Not everything TBS/Turner Broadcasting has done has been successful. Although I do admit that they certainly have been successful with many of their ventures. We'll have to wait and see what happens with BleacherReport.com
I think the problem with Bleacher Report is that it is an amateur site slickly packaged to look like a professional one.
I heard Will Carroll, formerly with SI, on a radio show today and he indicated he's now at Bleacher Report. He seemed to indicate they would be merging with the CNNSI sports department in the near future ... I guess will see if that adds credibility to Bleacher Report or not.
For those following Bracketology, Valpo continues to show up as a #14 seed in brackets from CBS(Palm), ESPN(Lunardi), SI(Glockner) and NBCSports (Rob Dauster). Two of them (don't remember which) have a first round matchup with Butler, which would certainly be interesting. One of them (NBC?) shows Valpo and Miami in a NIT rematch. Still early, but interesting to follow.
Quote from: zvillehaze on January 29, 2013, 05:14:05 PM
I heard Will Carroll, formerly with SI, on a radio show today and he indicated he's now at Bleacher Report. He seemed to indicate they would be merging with the CNNSI sports department in the near future ... I guess will see if that adds credibility to Bleacher Report or not.
For those following Bracketology, Valpo continues to show up as a #14 seed in brackets from CBS(Palm), ESPN(Lunardi), SI(Glockner) and NBCSports (Rob Dauster). Two of them (don't remember which) have a first round matchup with Butler, which would certainly be interesting. One of them (NBC?) shows Valpo and Miami in a NIT rematch. Still early, but interesting to follow.
bracketology is one of the stupidest schemes in college basketball. and duncenardi might be the biggest crock of the bunch. for mid-major conferences, all they do is plug in the leader of the conference, rather than who they think will win the auto-bid. it's best to ignore these faux brackets entirely until the week preceding selection sunday, when things start to actually matter, imo.
Valpo's RPI had fallen to 84 before the loss, and, on the loss (on the road, thankfully)... down to 91. Detroit RPI currently at 87, and will pull _well_ ahead of us if they hang on to the win on the road at Wright State. And, of course, they'll be just half a game back.
I suppose we'll stay above one hundred if we win at home against Milwaukee, but this isn't helping our Bracketbuster standing...
Is the summit league a better conference the HL this year? They have 3 teams in the mid-major top 25 and the HL only has one.
You got a look, perhaps, at IUPUI, IPFW, and UNO, right? Three RPI 300+ teams compare to the Horizon's lone dog. We don't even have anyone in the 200's at the moment.
In the last years, they've often enough had two or three decent or even pretty good teams. But, enough dogs to keep their average RPI low, and their conference RPI ranking in the 20's. This year and last it's been up a little: 18 this year, 16 last. (Compared to the Horizon's 12 and 13).
In the Sagarin's the Horizon is ranked 12th while the Summit is 21st. As agibson said, it's the bottom that is pulling them back. right now the Horizon has two teams in the 200's while the Summit has three in the 300's and one at 299! Meanwhile our best two ranked 71 and 85 while their's are 75 and 94.
We fell two slots on our loss at YSU.
Eastern Kentucky's at 29rd, adding some weight to the argument that their RPI is a bit inflated (relative to Sagarin, polls, etc.). Detroit's at 33rd, which conflicts a bit with their standing in the Sagarin, and RPI.
Update: February 4th, 2013
1. Gonzaga (30) 21-2 774 1 West Coast
2. Belmont 19-4 718 3 Ohio Valley
3. Creighton (1) 20-3 715 4 Missouri Valley
4. Wichita State 19-4 652 2 Missouri Valley
4. Saint Mary's 19-4 652 5 West Coast
6. Middle Tennessee 20-4 619 6 Sun Belt
7. Bucknell 19-4 583 7 Patriot
8. BYU 18-6 552 8 West Coast
9. Akron 17-4 526 9 Mid-American
10. Louisiana Tech 19-3 499 11 WAC
11. Stephen F. Austin 18-2 427 12 Southland
12. Valparaiso 17-6 383 10 Horizon
13. Lehigh 16-5 372 13 Patriot
14. Montana 16-4 333 16 Big Sky
15. Murray State 16-5 323 15 Ohio Valley
16. Ohio 15-6 298 14 Mid-American
17. North Dakota State 18-5 265 17 Summit
18. South Dakota State 18-6 248 18 Summit
19. Davidson 15-7 223 20 Southern
20. Western Illinois 17-5 127 21 Summit
21. Bryant 15-6 115 22 Northeast
22. Stony Brook 17-5 86 24 America East
23. Harvard 12-6 82 NR Ivy
24. Northeastern 14-8 65 23 Colonial
25. Elon 15-7 61 NR Southern
OTHERS RECEIVING VOTES: Niagara 57, Indiana State 56, Santa Clara 53, Eastern Kentucky 46, Weber State 23, New Mexico State 17, Western Michigan 17, Detroit 15, Oral Roberts 12, College of Charleston 10, Northwestern State 10, Vermont 10, Denver 9, Utah State 9, Long Beach State 8, Jacksonville State 6, North Carolina Central 6, Northwestern State 4, Albany 2, Loyola MD 2, Southern 2, Florida Gulf Coast 1.
It was good to see that Cleveland State will be playing WIU. Even though WIU's RPI is low, it would be good for a middle pack CSU team to beat one at the top of the Summit.
StatSheet Horizon 6th Man of the Week: Valparaiso's Bobby Capobianco
Senior Bobby Capobianco, a 6-9 forward, played an average of 17 minutes over two games for the Crusaders. In an 80-68 loss to Youngstown State, Capobianco got 3 points and 4 rebounds. During a strong 71-40 win over Milwaukee, he racked up 8 points and 9 rebounds.
This is the second StatSheet Horizon 6th Man of the Week honor for Bobby Capobianco. Jerran Young, a junior forward from Wright State, is runner up. Evan Bruinsma, a junior forward from Detroit, earns honorable mention. Including this week, Valparaiso has 4 StatSheet Horizon Player of the Week wins this season.
http://valpodaily.com/valparaiso-basketball/conf-potw/bobby-capobianco-wins-statsheet-horizon-sixth-man-week-february-4th-2013 (http://valpodaily.com/valparaiso-basketball/conf-potw/bobby-capobianco-wins-statsheet-horizon-sixth-man-week-february-4th-2013)
Quote from: valpotx on February 05, 2013, 10:35:46 AM
It was good to see that Cleveland State will be playing WIU. Even though WIU's RPI is low, it would be good for a middle pack CSU team to beat one at the top of the Summit.
I'm thinking very much of catching that game on my way back from the Valpo-EKU game (CSU-WIU is in the evening), since I have no warp drive to get me all the way down to Murray in time to catch Nate Wolters (crap! >:( ).
Hmm.. can we pass BYU today? Maybe.
It'll be hard to pass a lot of these small conference teams - playing relatively weak schedules from here on out. Maybe some will stumble in the Bracketbuster. (Of course, our schedule was relatively weak in the non-conference, so our RPI is low compared to some of these teams polling as our peers....).
Ryan is Horizon League Player of the Week for the 4th time this season, and Bobby is Newcomer of the Week: Congrats!
http://www.horizonleague.org/blog/valpos-broekhoff-capobianco-and-wsus-young-collect-weekly-honors.html (http://www.horizonleague.org/blog/valpos-broekhoff-capobianco-and-wsus-young-collect-weekly-honors.html)
I know a lot of games remain, but surely Ryan is the heavy favorite for HL player of the year.
Unless there is a drastic change over the last 5 games, it would be a travesty if Rowdy does not get it for the second year in a row. I can all but guarantee that Ray Sr plays Ray Jr so many minutes in ridiculous blowouts, in order to pad the stats for his son, and possible NBA draft position.
You are assuming that Ray Sr has any say in who plays ... Am I the only one who thinks Ray Sr is coaching his last year at UDM?
You think they will fire Ray Sr? The man took them to the tourney last year and has a chance at doing it again this year.
Quote from: talksalot on February 11, 2013, 01:29:51 PMYou are assuming that Ray Sr has any say in who plays ... Am I the only one who thinks Ray Sr is coaching his last year at UDM?
Why would they fire the guy who led them to their first NCAA appearance in 15 years? I mean the whole Asst. Coach/AD scandal probably won't touch him since it was technically over his head.
Kyle, you bring up a good point, but as is the case with changes in the AD's office, it often means changes in the coaching staff for the money sport at the institution.
Quote from: talksalot on February 11, 2013, 01:29:51 PMYou are assuming that Ray Sr has any say in who plays ... Am I the only one who thinks Ray Sr is coaching his last year at UDM?
I think he's only coaching at UDM until his son either leaves the program or exhausts his eligibility. Of course that will be up to the new Athletic Director when UDM names a permanent one. Jason Horn is the current interim AD. Although I'm sure Horn is getting a lot of oversight from the president's office after the scandal that put Horn in the interim position.
Indications are Ray Jr. will forego his Sr. year of eligibility and enter the NBA draft after this season.
If Ray Sr. leaves, then Detroit may lose the monopoly of scummy players in the Midwest who consistently get technicals, run up the score, dunk while up 20 on the final possession, or write songs about thrift shops.
Quote from: bbtds on February 11, 2013, 02:05:06 PMI think he's only coaching at UDM until his son either leaves the program or exhausts his eligibility.
Where does he plan on going afterwards?
I think he is gone when his son leaves. Here is an article on Jr. http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/50395/damian-lillard-ray-mccallum-and-the-key-to-nba-success-for-mid-major-point-guards (http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/50395/damian-lillard-ray-mccallum-and-the-key-to-nba-success-for-mid-major-point-guards)
I don't think they mention his disappearing act in the game against Valpo earlier this year. Maybe they are just going with the idea that he was defended by an NBA caliber defender in Erik Buggs. #BeatDetroit
Give me a break, wow! Did he only watch the one game against UWM? Very impressive that he kept his poise against a team that is 5-20...because he sure as heck had absolutely 0 poise against us in helping Detroit blow a 22 point lead. Saying Ray is impressive in interviews means zilch, as he is less than impressive overall on the court. He becomes a black hole for the ball at certain points in a game, and disappears the next. What a joke :lol:
Quote from: a3uge on February 11, 2013, 02:17:29 PMIf Ray Sr. leaves, then Detroit may lose the monopoly of scummy players in the Midwest who consistently get technicals, run up the score, dunk while up 20 on the final possession, or write songs about thrift shops.
I have had inklings of this before, but this settles it: you, sir, are someone I can see myself having a beer with at pass times or something. whatever they call it these days anyway. well done.
and the best part: Jr. is the leading scorer in the HL, at 18.5 or something. Ryan is second at 16.8, but I calculated the exact numbers today, and because of the vast disparity in their minutes, Ryan scores 21.13 per 40 and Ray 21.06 / 40. So he can't even claim to be the best scorer.
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on February 11, 2013, 03:34:48 PMQuote from: a3uge on February 11, 2013, 02:17:29 PMIf Ray Sr. leaves, then Detroit may lose the monopoly of scummy players in the Midwest who consistently get technicals, run up the score, dunk while up 20 on the final possession, or write songs about thrift shops.
I have had inklings of this before, but this settles it: you, sir, are someone I can see myself having a beer with at pass times or something. whatever they call it these days anyway. well done. and the best part: Jr. is the leading scorer in the HL, at 18.5 or something. Ryan is second at 16.8, but I calculated the exact numbers today, and because of the vast disparity in their minutes, Ryan scores 21.13 per 40 and Ray 21.06 / 40. So he can't even claim to be the best scorer.
Stacks, and it's pretty awesome.
Although, I should've done this before, but KVW tracks your stacks at 22.3 / 40 (!)
Quote from: agibson on February 11, 2013, 10:49:43 AMHmm.. can we pass BYU today? Maybe.
Exactly this. We pass BYU with their pair of losses. Otherwise, 7-16 aren't too much changed.
Update: February 11th, 2013
1. Gonzaga (30) 23-2 774 1 West Coast
2. Saint Mary's (1) 21-4 719 4 West Coast
3. Middle Tennessee 22-4 681 6 Sun Belt
4. Creighton 20-5 643 3 Missouri Valley
5. Belmont 20-5 627 2 Ohio Valley
6. Wichita State 20-5 603 4 Missouri Valley
7. Akron 19-4 578 9 Mid-American
8. Bucknell 20-4 570 7 Patriot
9. Louisiana Tech 21-3 543 10 WAC
10. Stephen F. Austin 20-2 474 11 Southland
11. Valparaiso 19-6 427 12 Horizon12. Montana 18-4 397 14 Big Sky
13. Lehigh 17-5 359 13 Patriot
14. BYU 18-8 358 8 West Coast
15. Murray State 18-5 348 15 Ohio Valley
16. Ohio 17-6 326 16 Mid-American
17. Davidson 17-7 257 19 Southern
18. Indiana State 16-8 209 NR Missouri Valley
19. Western Illinois 18-5 197 20 Summit
20. North Dakota State 19-6 192 17 Summit
21. South Dakota State 19-7 186 18 Summit
22. Bryant 16-6 103 21 Northeast
23. Northeastern 16-8 100 24 Colonial
24. Vermont 16-7 63 NR America East
25. New Mexico State 17-8 50 NR WAC
OTHERS RECEIVING VOTES: Denver 46, Eastern Kentucky 29, Harvard 26, Northwestern State 24, College of Charleston 20, Elon 16, Stony Brook 16, Robert Morris 15, Santa Clara 14, Utah State 13, Weber State 11,
Detroit 10, Florida Gulf Coast 10, Western Michigan 10, North Carolina Central 8, Norfolk State 5,
Wright State 5, Jacksonville State 3, Long Beach State 3, Niagara 2, Albany 1, Hartford 1, Northern Iowa 1, Oakland 1, Southern 1.
Quote from: valpopal on February 11, 2013, 11:01:21 AM
Ryan is Horizon League Player of the Week for the 4th time this season, and Bobby is Newcomer of the Week: Congrats!
http://www.horizonleague.org/blog/valpos-broekhoff-capobianco-and-wsus-young-collect-weekly-honors.html (http://www.horizonleague.org/blog/valpos-broekhoff-capobianco-and-wsus-young-collect-weekly-honors.html)
The article mistakenly says this is the 3rd time Ryan has won the award this year. 4 POW awards in 14 weeks - amazing! Pre-season POY nominee Ray McCallum has 1. But who's counting? ;)
For the Bracket watchers, Valpo still a #14 at ESPN and CBSSports and up to #13 at NBCSports and CNNSI.
Here's one that hasn't been referenced before ... http://www.bustingthebracket.com/2013/02/bracket-breakdown_11.html (http://www.bustingthebracket.com/2013/02/bracket-breakdown_11.html) Shows Valpo as the most highly rated #14. Also interesting because it's easy to see the teams currently rated ahead on the #13 and #12 lines, so you know who Valpo needs to pass to get a higher seed.
Quote from: EddieCabot on February 12, 2013, 02:17:32 PMso you know who Valpo needs to pass to get a higher seed
The usual suspects, I suppose. His 12 and 13 lines contain six of the nine teams ahead of us in the mid-major poll, for example.
Quote from: EddieCabot on February 12, 2013, 02:17:32 PM
For the Bracket watchers, Valpo still a #14 at ESPN and CBSSports and up to #13 at NBCSports and CNNSI.
Here's one that hasn't been referenced before ... http://www.bustingthebracket.com/2013/02/bracket-breakdown_11.html (http://www.bustingthebracket.com/2013/02/bracket-breakdown_11.html) Shows Valpo as the most highly rated #14. Also interesting because it's easy to see the teams currently rated ahead on the #13 and #12 lines, so you know who Valpo needs to pass to get a higher seed.
[/b]
Yeah, if you believe these sources. Right now in the Sagarin's Valpo is ranked 80th in the 12th highest ranked conference out of 32. We are currently ranked higher than 14 conference leaders and very slightly behind Belmont and SF Austen. Those are certainly two we want to get beat in their tourneys. So if my math is right (and I'm still not sure about how the added teams figure into this) there needs to be 12 teams ranked worse than us for us to get a 13 and 16 to get a 12. With a couple of upsets, and in conferences where the current leader wouldn't get an at-large bid, we have a shot at a 12 (probably need to win out) but a 13 seems fairly safe. Remember, the committee continues to say that rpi isn't the only factor, that's why I think Sagarin's is a better tool. We'll find out.
Quote from: vu72 on February 12, 2013, 03:07:14 PM
Quote from: EddieCabot on February 12, 2013, 02:17:32 PM
For the Bracket watchers, Valpo still a #14 at ESPN and CBSSports and up to #13 at NBCSports and CNNSI.
Here's one that hasn't been referenced before ... http://www.bustingthebracket.com/2013/02/bracket-breakdown_11.html (http://www.bustingthebracket.com/2013/02/bracket-breakdown_11.html) Shows Valpo as the most highly rated #14. Also interesting because it's easy to see the teams currently rated ahead on the #13 and #12 lines, so you know who Valpo needs to pass to get a higher seed.
[/b]
Yeah, if you believe these sources. Right now in the Sagarin's Valpo is ranked 80th in the 12th highest ranked conference out of 32. We are currently ranked higher than 14 conference leaders and very slightly behind Belmont and SF Austen. Those are certainly two we want to get beat in their tourneys. So if my math is right (and I'm still not sure about how the added teams figure into this) there needs to be 12 teams ranked worse than us for us to get a 13 and 16 to get a 12. With a couple of upsets, and in conferences where the current leader wouldn't get an at-large bid, we have a shot at a 12 (probably need to win out) but a 13 seems fairly safe. Remember, the committee continues to say that rpi isn't the only factor, that's why I think Sagarin's is a better tool. We'll find out.
I think I saw this posted somewhere else, but there will be six #16 seeds, so Valpo needs to be better than 14 (6+4+4) teams to be a 13 seed and better than 18 to get a 12 seed. As you point out, RPI is only one of the tools used. I believe most of the mock brackets are based upon where teams stand today, so Valpo certainly has the opportunity to improve their position by continuing to win games. I may be wrong, but I believe Sagarin is a forward looking "predictive" tool, so it may be more representative of how things will look when the season ends.
We don't need to worry about "rooting" for teams to lose conference games. We need to win the HL Tournament (that would be step 1) and then have a bunch of upsets in the conference tournament...aka, #1 seeds losing.
I suppose there are two sides to the coin.
You can take the best team from a bad conference and tarnish their representation. So, let them pick up a couple of bad conference losses and bruise their RPI. Then, when they make it into the tournament, they'll earn a lower seed.
Or, let the current front-runner run away with the regular season (so long as they have no chance at an at-large). Then, let them get upset in the conference tournament.
Either way can work, maybe depending on the conference and teams in question.
Wins on the road sure help your RPI. Valpo just edges Detroit, moving ahead of them for the first time in a while. Valpo 73, Detroit 74, UIC 107.. UMW 312.
Quote from: EddieCabot on February 12, 2013, 02:17:32 PM
For the Bracket watchers, Valpo still a #14 at ESPN and CBSSports and up to #13 at NBCSports and CNNSI.
Here's one that hasn't been referenced before ... http://www.bustingthebracket.com/2013/02/bracket-breakdown_11.html (http://www.bustingthebracket.com/2013/02/bracket-breakdown_11.html) Shows Valpo as the most highly rated #14. Also interesting because it's easy to see the teams currently rated ahead on the #13 and #12 lines, so you know who Valpo needs to pass to get a higher seed.
It sure would make for an interesting discussion at one of the Drew Family get-togethers if Valpo beat out the highest positioned #12. And if the two teams ever met in the big dance it would be the Super Bowl of college basketball match-ups. Hopefully the lights won't go out at the venue.
A quick look at today's numbers shows us at W.N.-70, Sag-68, K.P-69, and R-time 73. That might be the tightest range of any team in div-1 basketball, so I guess it must be pretty accurate. In contrast our 2010-11 team was maybe 43'rd at this time with its lowest number while its highest may have been Sag at something like 85 or 90 and might have been even higher.
Also of interest is that RealTime now has us as their favorite to win in each of our last 5 games, albeit by only 1 point at both Loyola and Green Bay. This is interesting because at the time of the Youngstown S. loss they had us pegged at 11 -5 in HL play. Just goes to show that when you start to win they predict you to win and if you start to lose they can see no end to it. So for any of their methodologies are late season surge teams accurately measured?
Quote from: justducky on February 15, 2013, 11:56:07 AMA quick look at today's numbers shows us at W.N.-70, Sag-68, K.P-69, and R-time 73. That might be the tightest range of any team in div-1 basketball, so I guess it must be pretty accurate. In contrast our 2010-11 team was maybe 43'rd at this time with its lowest number while its highest may have been Sag at something like 85 or 90 and might have been even higher.
Interesting!
bbstate.com is still an outlier. It turns out to be rather generous to a bunch of small conference schools. They've got Stephen T. Austin, LA Tech, MTSU, Akron, St. Mary's, and Belmont all in the top 25 (and Gonzaga too, but Butler's at 27 as the best of the A10). Anyhow, bbstate.com has Valpo at #43.
I think the numbers are starting to converge. Here are the Sagarins and BPI (ESPN's deal). Both are very similar. The numbers I'm reporting are for Valpo and conference LEADERS (highest ranked in Sagarin's), that are similar or worse than Valpo. Thus, if they hold true--and I'm thinking with Valpo running the table--in the Sagain's we are better than 16 conference leaders and in the BPI better than 13 but in a virtual dead heat with two others. Very interesting to me in that many are almost identical while others are off some.
[b]School [/b] Sagarin[/ BPI
Valpo 68 69
SF Austen 69 68
Denver 73 66
Bucknell 80 59
Davidson 81 82
South Dakota State 99 121
Princeton 107 109
Weber State 109 88
Stoney Brooke 110 101
Iona 113 106
George Mason 118 119
Long Beach State 124 161
Mercer 131 141
Robert Morris 161 162
NC Asheville 167 152
NC Central 176 137
Texas Southern 206 192
So, according to Sagarin, all things considered, we could be a 12. By BPI, a 13, very close to a 12. We need to keep winning anf get some help in conference tourneys.
Quote from: vu72 on February 15, 2013, 03:25:17 PM
I think the numbers are starting to converge. Here are the Sagarins and BPI (ESPN's deal). Both are very similar. The numbers I'm reporting are for Valpo and conference LEADERS (highest ranked in Sagarin's), that are similar or worse than Valpo. Thus, if they hold true--and I'm thinking with Valpo running the table--in the Sagain's we are better than 16 conference leaders and in the BPI better than 13 but in a virtual dead heat with two others. Very interesting to me in that many are almost identical while others are off some.
[b]School [/b] Sagarin[/ BPI
Valpo 68 69
SF Austen 69 68
Denver 73 66
Bucknell 80 59
Davidson 81 82
South Dakota State 99 121
Princeton 107 109
Weber State 109 88
Stoney Brooke 110 101
Iona 113 106
George Mason 118 119
Long Beach State 124 161
Mercer 131 141
Robert Morris 161 162
NC Asheville 167 152
NC Central 176 137
Texas Southern 206 192
So, according to Sagarin, all things considered, we could be a 12. By BPI, a 13, very close to a 12. We need to keep winning anf get some help in conference tourneys.
I think it would be pretty accurate to say the following: (all assuming we win the conference tourney)
If we win out... We are a 12
If we lose 1... We are a 13
If we lose 2... We are a 14
I think this is how it will play out... Anybody have a different opinion?
I won't be happy about it, and haven't run any numbers, but a 14 won't shock me even if we win out.
If we lose a game or two? I don't exclude a 15.
But, again, I haven't run the numbers.
I believe someone mentioned that we would have an RPI of around 53 if we win out...there is no way that we get a 14 with that RPI, compared to these other conferences. I say that a 13 seed is realistic in this scenario
Apparently loonardi bumped us to a 13 in his bracketology while the guy at CBS still has us as a 14 and playing butler in the first round
Quote from: valpotx on February 15, 2013, 05:00:18 PM
I believe someone mentioned that we would have an RPI of around 53 if we win out...there is no way that we get a 14 with that RPI, compared to these other conferences. I say that a 13 seed is realistic in this scenario
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Valparaiso.html (http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Valparaiso.html)
53 matches RPI Forecast's latest predicted RPI, assuming we win out. The one loss case is harder - I'm not sure that site lets you separate the "lose in the final" vs. "lose one in the regular season and win the tournament" cases - they give different RPI's at least if the loss comes on the road. But, the weighted average of those two cases seems to be RPI 62.
Reminding myself of our tournament history, we've had every seed from 12 to 16.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valparaiso_Crusaders_men%27s_basketball#NCAA_tournament (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valparaiso_Crusaders_men%27s_basketball#NCAA_tournament)
One thing good about the HL tournament format is you'll likely get two good RPI games. Valpo had far to many Mid-Con tournament openers against a 4-26 Chicago State team, which were RPI killers. Of the seven games remaining, there's not a bad RPI game, as long as Valpo wins out. If they can win out, they'll be 27-6 with an RPI of no worse than 50. It's hard to imagine a 14 seed under that scenario.
Winning out would mean we won 17 of our last 18. It would mean 3 more wins against top 100 RPI teams. (Detroit, EKU, and most likely Detroit again) Add in a couple low RPI upsets of bubble teams in conference tournaments and perhaps a late season collapse or two from some major conference bubble teams. I would like to think that would be enough for a 12. However, I can see why they wouldn't give us one. (coughNebraskaOaklandLoyolacoughcough)
Now, I really don't think we are going to win out. I think we will lose 1 more. So it probably doesn't matter.
Quote from: agibson on February 15, 2013, 05:07:50 PM
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Valparaiso.html (http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Valparaiso.html)
53 matches RPI Forecast's latest predicted RPI, assuming we win out. The one loss case is harder - I'm not sure that site lets you separate the "lose in the final" vs. "lose one in the regular season and win the tournament" cases - they give different RPI's at least if the loss comes on the road. But, the weighted average of those two cases seems to be RPI 62.
I suppose it's worth considering Detroit's seeding potential, as well. With their stronger SOS, their RPI will likely end out the season better than ours.
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Detroit.html (http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Detroit.html)
If they finish fairly well, win or lose in the tournament, they could be in the 40's, 30's, apparently even in the 20's.
Quote from: chef on February 15, 2013, 05:13:27 PM
One thing good about the HL tournament format is you'll likely get two good RPI games. Valpo had far to many Mid-Con tournament openers against a 4-26 Chicago State team, which were RPI killers. Of the seven games remaining, there's not a bad RPI game, as long as Valpo wins out. If they can win out, they'll be 27-6 with an RPI of no worse than 50. It's hard to imagine a 14 seed under that scenario.
So, are you saying you'd rather have two good RPI games versus playing UWM again? Enjoy it this year, because I'm pretty sure wh will be petitioning to get the double-bye format eliminated since it was put in place for the sole benefit of Butler and is no longer needed. ;)
Quote from: vuweathernerd on February 15, 2013, 05:03:47 PM
Apparently loonardi bumped us to a 13 in his bracketology while the guy at CBS still has us as a 14 and playing butler in the first round
Palm updated today and still has the Valpo-Butler matchup he's had for the past several weeks ... as a NW Indiana resident, it's probably a matchup he's hoping for. http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology) I think Valpo has done enough to earn something better than a 14, obviously.
And for those who predicted Butler would finish 3rd-5th in the A-10 and be lucky to make the NIT, Palm is currently showing six A-10 teams in his bracket, and a 7th as his first team out. That league is pretty strong this year.
Quote from: zvillehaze on February 15, 2013, 06:06:37 PM
Quote from: chef on February 15, 2013, 05:13:27 PM
One thing good about the HL tournament format is you'll likely get two good RPI games. Valpo had far to many Mid-Con tournament openers against a 4-26 Chicago State team, which were RPI killers. Of the seven games remaining, there's not a bad RPI game, as long as Valpo wins out. If they can win out, they'll be 27-6 with an RPI of no worse than 50. It's hard to imagine a 14 seed under that scenario.
So, are you saying you'd rather have two good RPI games versus playing UWM again? Enjoy it this year, because I'm pretty sure wh will be petitioning to get the double-bye format eliminated since it was put in place for the sole benefit of Butler and is no longer needed. ;)
It's the double bye that seems so unfair. I would not be opposed to a change to a single bye for the top 7 seeds (which means #9 at #8 would be the only first round game) even if Valpo finishes #1. I think the home court advantage of the 2nd and 3rd rounds and possibly the championship game would be enough benefit for the #1 seed. If more teams are added to the HL more teams can be added to the first round.
I was really feeling the spirit of RLH when I wrote that. God bless his soul. Someone has to keep carrying the "no double bye" mantra.
Quote from: zvillehaze on February 15, 2013, 06:17:38 PMValpo-Butler matchup
Not happening in the first round. Butler will be a double-digit seed unless they run their table.
book it.
Haze...just so you understand. In the Mid-Con, Valpo would play an awful CSU team in the opening round and then still have to win two more games. It was not out of the ordinary to start the Mid-Con tournament 60th in the RPI and finish the Mid-Con tournament 65th in the RPI. That would never happen as the top seed in the Horizon League. I have also stated from day one I have no problem with the Horizon League Tournament format. It rewards the teams that finish in the top 2 in the regular season. Everybody knows that going in. Thus, technically every school is on an even playing field. Additionally, it assures that the team that reaches the NCAA Tournament will have improved their RPI during the Horizon League Tournament.
Quote from: chef on February 15, 2013, 10:38:55 PM
Haze...just so you understand. In the Mid-Con, Valpo would play an awful CSU team in the opening round and then still have to win two more games. It was not out of the ordinary to start the Mid-Con tournament 60th in the RPI and finish the Mid-Con tournament 65th in the RPI. That would never happen as the top seed in the Horizon League. I have also stated from day one I have no problem with the Horizon League Tournament format. It rewards the teams that finish in the top 2 in the regular season. Everybody knows that going in. Thus, technically every school is on an even playing field. Additionally, it assures that the team that reaches the NCAA Tournament will have improved their RPI during the Horizon League Tournament.
We're in agreement ... I was just trying to get wh riled up. ;D
Some argue the format isn't "fair", but as you point out, every team has an equal shot at earning byes and hosting games. Like it or not, the format does a better job of "protecting" the RPI of its best teams. It's also proven that a lower seeded team (CSU, Detroit) can win the tournament if they get hot.
Another argument has been that you could have a three-way tie for first and those teams would have vastly different outcomes. That lessens a bit this year with the #3 seed getting 1 bye, but I actually like the WCC format for awarding several tiers of byes. http://www.wccsports.com/ot/12-wcc-tournament-central.html (http://www.wccsports.com/ot/12-wcc-tournament-central.html)
Quote from: zvillehaze on February 18, 2013, 12:05:08 PM
Quote from: chef on February 15, 2013, 10:38:55 PM
Haze...just so you understand. In the Mid-Con, Valpo would play an awful CSU team in the opening round and then still have to win two more games. It was not out of the ordinary to start the Mid-Con tournament 60th in the RPI and finish the Mid-Con tournament 65th in the RPI. That would never happen as the top seed in the Horizon League. I have also stated from day one I have no problem with the Horizon League Tournament format. It rewards the teams that finish in the top 2 in the regular season. Everybody knows that going in. Thus, technically every school is on an even playing field. Additionally, it assures that the team that reaches the NCAA Tournament will have improved their RPI during the Horizon League Tournament.
We're in agreement ... I was just trying to get wh riled up. ;D
Some argue the format isn't "fair", but as you point out, every team has an equal shot at earning byes and hosting games. Like it or not, the format does a better job of "protecting" the RPI of its best teams. It's also proven that a lower seeded team (CSU, Detroit) can win the tournament if they get hot.
Another argument has been that you could have a three-way tie for first and those teams would have vastly different outcomes. That lessens a bit this year with the #3 seed getting 1 bye, but I actually like the WCC format for awarding several tiers of byes. http://www.wccsports.com/ot/12-wcc-tournament-central.html (http://www.wccsports.com/ot/12-wcc-tournament-central.html)
My only arguments against the format have been: (a) as a fan, I miss attending every single tournament game from start to finish, all in one venue, and (b) what is truly a larger argument against a larger problem, namely the very phenomenon that has made it so hard for a conference like the HL to compete for at-large bids (even harder in the Mid-Con).
(a) isn't important, except to selfish fans like me ;)
(b) isn't resolvable as far as I can tell, so I'm fine with the format in that context.
It is a compromise to the fundamental principle of competition: 2 teams going against each other without any artificial handicaps; i.e., 2 teams on a level playing field where the only thing holding 1 team or the other back is their own performance in that game. That way, when the favored team wins, they can say they didn't need to benefit from extra rest or anything like that. I guess they do benefit from playing a lower seeded team rather than a higher seeded team, so okay, my vision is not a perfect one ;)
But I don't see any way to solve the problem I've elucidated, so I can't complain too much.
A lot of losses this week, so we only fall one place, to number twelve. All the losses do allow Davidson, a team that only won, to move from seventeen all the way to ten.
Detroit, deservedly, reenters the list. The Horizon's seemed underrepresented for a while.
Update: February 18th, 2013
1. Gonzaga (31) 25-2 775 1 West Coast
2. Middle Tennessee 23-4 728 3 Sun Belt
3. Wichita State 22-5 682 6 Missouri Valley
4. Saint Mary's 22-5 674 2 West Coast
5. Akron 21-4 640 7 Mid-American
6. Creighton 21-6 618 4 Missouri Valley
7. Belmont 20-6 585 5 Ohio Valley
8. Louisiana Tech 23-3 576 9 WAC
9. Bucknell 21-5 517 8 Patriot
10. Davidson 19-7 472 17 Southern
11. Stephen F. Austin 21-3 462 10 Southland
12. Valparaiso 20-7 415 11 Horizon
13. Montana 19-5 383 12 Big Sky
14. BYU 19-8 361 14 West Coast
15. Ohio 19-6 343 16 Mid-American
16. Lehigh 18-6 292 13 Patriot
17. South Dakota State 21-7 258 21 Summit
18. Murray State 18-7 231 15 Ohio Valley
19. Western Illinois 19-6 182 19 Summit
20. Detroit 18-9 142 NR Horizon
21. Denver 17-8 131 NR WAC
22. Weber State 19-5 99 NR Big Sky
23. North Dakota State 20-7 82 20 Summit
24. Stony Brook 19-6 76 NR America East
25. Indiana State 16-10 56 18 Missouri Valley
OTHERS RECEIVING VOTES: Eastern Kentucky 51, New Mexico State 42, Northwestern State 23, Northeastern 21, Bryant 20, Harvard 20, Utah State 20, Long Beach State 19, Northern Iowa 18, Vermont 18, Elon 7, Oakland 5, Oral Roberts 5, Mercer 5, Norfolk State 5, Western Michigan 5, College of Charleston 3, Florida Gulf Coast 2, Santa Clara 2, Southern 2, Albany 1, Niagara 1.
In ESPN's bracketology, we dropped down to the 14 seed against 3 seed Kansas @ K.C.
and you can ask Detroit how that worked for them last year...
Quote from: StlVUFan on February 18, 2013, 12:40:32 PM
My only arguments against the format have been: (a) as a fan, I miss attending every single tournament game from start to finish, all in one venue, and (b) what is truly a larger argument against a larger problem, namely the very phenomenon that has made it so hard for a conference like the HL to compete for at-large bids (even harder in the Mid-Con).
(a) isn't important, except to selfish fans like me ;)
(b) isn't resolvable as far as I can tell, so I'm fine with the format in that context.
I finally understand point (a) a bit after my daughter travelled to Sioux Falls last year for the Summit tournaments (men's & women's) and had a blast. As for (b), I don't really think the tourney format can create a multi-bid league out of a league that doesn't have multiple teams with at-large quality resume's. If you have two or more really good teams, then protecting their RPIs with tournament byes makes sense.
With that said, the Horizon's members are obviously free to use the location and format that best suits them.
Quote from: zvillehaze on February 19, 2013, 05:20:09 PM
Quote from: StlVUFan on February 18, 2013, 12:40:32 PM
My only arguments against the format have been: (a) as a fan, I miss attending every single tournament game from start to finish, all in one venue, and (b) what is truly a larger argument against a larger problem, namely the very phenomenon that has made it so hard for a conference like the HL to compete for at-large bids (even harder in the Mid-Con).
(a) isn't important, except to selfish fans like me ;)
(b) isn't resolvable as far as I can tell, so I'm fine with the format in that context.
I finally understand point (a) a bit after my daughter travelled to Sioux Falls last year for the Summit tournaments (men's & women's) and had a blast. As for (b), I don't really think the tourney format can create a multi-bid league out of a league that doesn't have multiple teams with at-large quality resume's. If you have two or more really good teams, then protecting their RPIs with tournament byes makes sense.
From the conference's point of view, I very much agree. That's not the point of view I was thinking of, of course ;)
Oh the Mid Con days... Fun announcing every game at the Mark of the Quad Cities...(aka, ValpoWest)... and taking the train to Kansas City to watch every game there... great road trip. I think it's nice that the HL gives the extra home game as a perk for coming in 3 4 5 6 in the conference...#2 does get the shaft... but remember our Students will once again be on spring break (3-2 thru 3-17)... we certainly will need the locals to come out en masse ...
and I hope I don't have to beg for a crowd on the 26th. Senior Night... Clinch Night !
Quote from: talksalot on February 19, 2013, 09:28:51 PM#2 does get the shaft...
The #2 seed may not get a home game but that double bye is worth more than 1 home game, for sure. Also the #3 seed now gets a single bye which means, at least this year, no home game. They play their first game at the host's, #1 seed's, place.
Most recent update has us as a 13 seed against Wisconsin. That is a matchup I would not complain about at all :)
#12 per ESPN's Mid-Major Report
http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/76865/mid-major-report-power-rankings-10 (http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/76865/mid-major-report-power-rankings-10)
QuoteValparaiso (21-7, 11-3 Horizon). The Crusaders are still on top of the Horizon League despite losing a war with Detroit over the weekend.
Detroit is #14. Not easy to make a case that we should be ahead of any of the top 11, either.
I've corrected the "last week's ranking" numbers, which had several errors on the website.
Surprisingly little change to the top 12, given the Bracketbuster. Creighton got hit surprisingly hard for losing at St. Mary's. And Stephen Austin sort of inexplicably moved up a bit. Other than that, not much changed.
Valpo still in 12th. Moved up sort of half a place.
Update: February 25th, 2013
1. Gonzaga (31) 27-2 775 1 West Coast
2. Middle Tennessee 25-4 729 2 Sun Belt
3. Wichita State 24-5 690 3 Missouri Valley
4. Saint Mary's 24-5 686 4 West Coast
5. Akron 22-4 653 5 Mid-American
6. Belmont 22-6 609 7 Ohio Valley
7. Louisiana Tech 24-3 588 8 WAC
8. Stephen F. Austin 23-3 522 11 Southland
9. Bucknell 23-5 520 9 Patriot
10. Davidson 21-7 490 10 Southern
11. Creighton 21-6 486 6 Missouri Valley
12. Valparaiso 22-7 447 12 Horizon
13. Murray State 20-7 342 18 Ohio Valley
14. Montana 19-6 340 13 Big Sky
15. BYU 20-9 320 14 West Coast
16. Denver 18-8 271 21 WAC
17. Ohio 20-7 270 15 Mid-American
18. Weber State 20-5 251 22 Big Sky
19. Stony Brook 21-6 149 24 America East
20. South Dakota State 21-9 136 17 Summit
21. Western Illinois 19-7 118 19 Summit
22. Detroit 18-10 117 20 Horizon
23. Lehigh 18-8 113 16 Patriot
24. Harvard 17-7 75 NR Ivy
25. Norfolk State 18-10 60 NR MEAC
OTHERS RECEIVING VOTES: Indiana State 47, Eastern Kentucky 46, New Mexico State 44, North Dakota State 26, Utah State 25, Robert Morris 15, Long Beach State 14, Niagara 14, Northwestern State 13, Northeastern 11, North Carolina Central 9, Mercer 8, Northern Iowa 7, Southern 7, Western Michigan 7, Bryant 6, College of Charleston 4, Santa Clara 4, Elon 3, Vermont 2, Albany 1, Army 1, Gardner-Webb 1, Jacksonville State 1, Lafayette 1, Loyola MD 1.
Quote from: agibson on February 25, 2013, 09:46:37 PMAnd Stephen Austin sort of inexplicably moved up a bit.
Yeah, at first I was going to say, "but SFA easily won their toughest game yet--the BB road game at the Dirtbags"
but, Bucknell beat Lehigh on the road, to avenge an earlier loss. and lehigh's a better team.
hm.
A freaking MEAC team is in the top 25 at 18-10?? That is an absolute joke over some of the 'receiving votes' teams
Quote from: valpotx on February 26, 2013, 03:30:35 AM
A freaking MEAC team is in the top 25 at 18-10?? That is an absolute joke over some of the 'receiving votes' teams
Speaking of jokes, look at Stephen F. Austin. They're No. 8 with a seemingly impressive record of 23-3. What their record doesn't show is that 4 of their 23 wins are over D-2 teams, and 13 of their 19 D-1 wins are over teams with losing records. Their conference (Southland) RPI - is 25th of 32. Oh, this is the "power" conference for which Oral Roberts left the Summit to join.
I agree, as SFA is not good. We would beat them by 20+, just as we did EKU. The Southland is a joke basketball conference, and always has been
Quote from: valpotx on February 26, 2013, 10:13:51 AM
I agree, as SFA is not good. We would beat them by 20+, just as we did EKU. The Southland is a joke basketball conference, and always has been
I owuldn't be to sure about that. I watched them beat Long Beach State at LBS, by 8 during the BB. They looked pretty good as LBS always is running and gunning.
Their games have been played on Fox Sports Southwest occasionally, and they are not as good as their record indicates each time I have watched them. I liken them to WSU this year, at best. The Southland is a piss poor basketball conference, as evidenced by 7 of their 10 teams being sub-200 in RPI, and most with losing records.
Quote from: vu72 on February 26, 2013, 10:45:56 AMI owuldn't be to sure about that.
agreed. they DID beat Oklahoma on the road. that's one more top-50 scalp than we have.
Quote from: valpotx on February 26, 2013, 10:13:51 AM
I agree, as SFA is not good. We would beat them by 20+, just as we did EKU. The Southland is a joke basketball conference, and always has been
Quote from: vu72 on February 26, 2013, 10:45:56 AM
Quote from: valpotx on February 26, 2013, 10:13:51 AM
I agree, as SFA is not good. We would beat them by 20+, just as we did EKU. The Southland is a joke basketball conference, and always has been
I owuldn't be to sure about that. I watched them beat Long Beach State at LBS, by 8 during the BB. They looked pretty good as LBS always is running and gunning.
Does that make Stephen F Austin the one good team in a joke conference. It seems that statement matches what people used to say about Valpo when it was in the Mid-Con. People would say that the Mid-Con was a joke conference but we knew that Valpo was the good team in a joke conference.
Or is that just totally off base, valpotx?
Is SFA no good because they play in a joke conference?
Can a joke conference have one good team that makes it to the Big Dance often because the conference is a joke conference like Valpo was in the Mid-Con?
SFA is no good because SFA is not good ;). I don't care what their record, mid-major ranking, or RPI says. They would get whooped by Valpo this year, and just about any other year. I have seen them play on TV several times, and it is nothing special.
Quote from: valpotx on February 26, 2013, 10:13:51 AM
I agree, as SFA is not good. We would beat them by 20+, just as we did EKU. The Southland is a joke basketball conference, and always has been
Quote from: vu72 on February 26, 2013, 10:45:56 AM
I wouldn't be to sure about that. I watched them beat Long Beach State at LBS, by 8 during the BB. They looked pretty good as LBS always is running and gunning.
I guess you two can agree to disagree. I have not seen SFA play. But with that record and playing well against the Sooners and The Beach I don't understand why valpotx thinks the Six Million $ Man (get it? Steve Austin!) is so bad. Maybe loyalty to SFA doesn't go beyond Austin City Limits. Which would be a shame because SFA is in Nacogdoches. ;)
It might also be that I don't respect the school in anything, as it is basically a party school with some classes that happen to occur every now and then :). Seriously though, they are a middle pack HL team. We would beat LBSU by double digits as well. In regards to Oklahoma, I can't say anything about them, since we don't play up to the BCS schools the last few years. On the whole, we would beat SFA by 20 at home, and 8-10 on the road
Quote from: bbtds on February 26, 2013, 03:42:07 PMMaybe loyalty to SFA doesn't go beyond Austin City Limits. Which would be a shame because SFA is in Nacogdoches. ;)
Interesting to note that the Southland's two best teams (Stephen F. Austion and Northwestern State) are located in the "sister cities" of Nacogdoches, TX and Natchitoches, LA. For my fellow old folks on the board, Northwestern State was the site of Jim Croce's last concert ... he was killed in a plane crash leaving Natchitoches in 1973.
On the win over YSU Valpo's RPI rank goes from 66.... to 65. YSU rises from 190 to 182 on the loss.
Detroit's is unchanged at 61 on beating Loyola.
Quote from: agibson on February 26, 2013, 10:19:45 PMOn the win over YSU Valpo's RPI rank goes from 66.... to 65.
Here's why RPIForecast has some bugs (not Buggs) to work out on the conf tourney side:
--click "without" and you see that if we win over GB we are forecasted to rise to 62.8.
--click "with" and you see that if we win over GB AND WIN BOTH TOURNEY GAMES we are forecasted to be 65.2
Now what kind of sense does that make?
None. That's just about impossible. If Valpo plays Wright State in the semis and Detroit in the finals, the Crusader's opponents record will pick up about 12-14 wins over .500. Again 50% of your RPI is your opponent's record. Thus it is not possible to beat two teams well over .500 and not have your RPI improve.
Quote from: chef on February 27, 2013, 02:37:49 PM
None. That's just about impossible. If Valpo plays Wright State in the semis and Detroit in the finals, the Crusader's opponents record will pick up about 12-14 wins over .500. Again 50% of your RPI is your opponent's record. Thus it is not possible to beat two teams well over .500 and not have your RPI improve.
I think you're basically right - and there must probably be something messed up with RPI Forecasts' RPI calculation. (If nothing else, they seem not to have the conference seeding completely straight. No huge surprise. But, they still have open possibilities for Detroit playing two, three, or even four games in the HL tourney.)
Beating Wright State and Detroit, even at home, will surely improve our RPI, and our RPI rank.
I don't know why we'd trust the rest of their engine, necessarily. But, they now have us as 53% likely to take the auto-bid, with Detroit 34%.
Is there a chance that WSU etc playing the lower seeds will hurt their SOS and their RPI which will in turn hurt our RPI? Or am I thinking too much again?
Well, you're right. But whoever we play will have just played Milwaukee.
The stench will be palpable, but since we've already played them twice, this is more like a single ply of toilet paper on our shoe than a bath in the peanut-butter-and-whatzit that one VU frat had back in the (late 80s? early 90s?).
The YSU win actually cost us 3 spots in the Sagarin's. Could have been worse. Detroit lost 11 spots with the Loyola win.
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on February 27, 2013, 07:02:31 PM
Well, you're right. But whoever we play will have just played Milwaukee.
The stench will be palpable, but since we've already played them twice, this is more like a single ply of toilet paper on our shoe than a bath in the peanut-butter-and-whatzit that one VU frat had back in the (late 80s? early 90s?).
WSU or GB will finish as the #4 seed and play Milwaukee(#9) at home on Tue, March 5. If GB/WSU win they will then play the winner of the #6/#7 game at the ARC on Fri, March 8. Valpo will then take on the winner of the #4/#9/#6/#7 game at the ARC on Sat, March 9. That doesn't necessarily mean that team that Valpo plays will have just played Milwaukee. It could be #6 or #7 who will have
not played #9 (Milw) or it could be #4 who would have beaten #6 or #7 before playing #1 (Valpo). Most likely Milwaukee loses their first round game on the road at # 4.
Quote from: agibson on February 26, 2013, 10:19:45 PM
On the win over YSU Valpo's RPI rank goes from 66.... to 65. YSU rises from 190 to 182 on the loss.
Detroit's is unchanged at 61 on beating Loyola.
Our RPI just improved to 63.
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on February 27, 2013, 09:00:03 AMHere's why RPIForecast has some bugs (not Buggs) to work out on the conf tourney side:
--click "without" and you see that if we win over GB we are forecasted to rise to 62.8.
--click "with" and you see that if we win over GB AND WIN BOTH TOURNEY GAMES we are forecasted to be 65.2
Now what kind of sense does that make?
They can't possibly know who our opponents will be (unless they have some kind of time machine) so they must be figuring some sort of average of probability, best and worst case scenarios, into the rpi calculation.
Quote from: FWalum on February 27, 2013, 11:29:59 PM
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on February 27, 2013, 09:00:03 AMHere's why RPIForecast has some bugs (not Buggs) to work out on the conf tourney side:
--click "without" and you see that if we win over GB we are forecasted to rise to 62.8.
--click "with" and you see that if we win over GB AND WIN BOTH TOURNEY GAMES we are forecasted to be 65.2
Now what kind of sense does that make?
They can't possibly know who our opponents will be (unless they have some kind of time machine) so they must be figuring some sort of average of probability, best and worst case scenarios, into the rpi calculation.
Our RPI is 63. The wh-developed Collegiate RPI Analytical Prognosticator (commonly referred to as CRAP) indicates that if we beat Green Bay and win the HL Tournament (including a game against Detroit) our RPI will be in the 50-55 range.
My thought is this...I currently don't give a CRAP about the RPI calculations from any of these websites and numbers junkies. I just want to see Valpo play in the NCAA tournament again, make it happen regularly, and see that help with butts in the seats at the ARC, and tradition building of a solid NCAA garnering program again. Once we start getting spots on the Dance card again, then I'll give a hint of CRAP to the RPI calculations, but right now, I just want a Dance card!!!
Quote from: valporun on February 28, 2013, 07:36:06 AM
My thought is this...I currently don't give a CRAP about the RPI calculations from any of these websites and numbers junkies. I just want to see Valpo play in the NCAA tournament again, make it happen regularly, and see that help with butts in the seats at the ARC, and tradition building of a solid NCAA garnering program again. Once we start getting spots on the Dance card again, then I'll give a hint of CRAP to the RPI calculations, but right now, I just want a Dance card!!!
Extremely well played. :clap: :thewave:
Quote from: valporun on February 28, 2013, 07:36:06 AM
My thought is this...I currently don't give a CRAP about the RPI calculations from any of these websites and numbers junkies. I just want to see Valpo play in the NCAA tournament again, make it happen regularly, and see that help with butts in the seats at the ARC, and tradition building of a solid NCAA garnering program again. Once we start getting spots on the Dance card again, then I'll give a hint of CRAP to the RPI calculations, but right now, I just want a Dance card!!!
I agree, but in defense of the number crunchers it is also important to know where we stand against our peers if the goal is to become a program that can be chosen as an at large candidate in those years when you don't win the conference tournament or if we want to be considered for a multi-bid conference.
ESPN bracketology has Valpo as a 14 seed against Louisville in Lexington KY.
They just love this match-up. It has been his pick for that seeding for just about each bracket
Quote from: wh on February 28, 2013, 06:16:50 AM
Quote from: FWalum on February 27, 2013, 11:29:59 PM
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on February 27, 2013, 09:00:03 AMHere's why RPIForecast has some bugs (not Buggs) to work out on the conf tourney side:
--click "without" and you see that if we win over GB we are forecasted to rise to 62.8.
--click "with" and you see that if we win over GB AND WIN BOTH TOURNEY GAMES we are forecasted to be 65.2
Now what kind of sense does that make?
They can't possibly know who our opponents will be (unless they have some kind of time machine) so they must be figuring some sort of average of probability, best and worst case scenarios, into the rpi calculation.
Our RPI is 63. The wh-developed Collegiate RPI Analytical Prognosticator (commonly referred to as CRAP) indicates that if we beat Green Bay and win the HL Tournament (including a game against Detroit) our RPI will be in the 50-55 range.
I applaud WH for calling his system CRAP. That is ingenious. :clap: :clap: :clap: :bowdown: :bowdown: :bowdown:
Quote from: agibson on February 27, 2013, 02:50:43 PMthere must probably be something messed up with RPI Forecasts' RPI calculation
And I may have found something, now that the math is easier with but one game to play. As of today:
Current: 66
Expected: 67.4
BUT
Expected RPI with win: 63.1
Expected RPI with loss: 71.8
So how does the "expected" of 67.4 compute, since it's going to be either 63 or 72?
The mathematically gifted among you have already calculated that 67.4 is the average of 63.1 and 71.8.
But we can't split the game.
If I had a guess it would be that the "expected" rpi would be the one we would having entering the game. It's predicting our rpi to drop by 1 or 2 before we take on GB
yeah, I considered that, before I realized that that number, throughout the year, has been a prediction of where we'd end up at the end of the year.
In fact, all of the "expected" stats in that column are of that nature:
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Valparaiso.html (http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Valparaiso.html)
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on March 01, 2013, 10:11:07 AM
Quote from: agibson on February 27, 2013, 02:50:43 PMthere must probably be something messed up with RPI Forecasts' RPI calculation
And I may have found something, now that the math is easier with but one game to play. As of today:
Current: 66
Expected: 67.4
BUT
Expected RPI with win: 63.1
Expected RPI with loss: 71.8
So how does the "expected" of 67.4 compute, since it's going to be either 63 or 72?
The mathematically gifted among you have already calculated that 67.4 is the average of 63.1 and 71.8.
But we can't split the game.
Certain people on this board have been giving credibility to these "expected" numbers for days (weeks) now, when common sense said they can't possibly be accurate. You have finally uncovered the secret that rather than a sophisticated calculation developed by a mathematical wizard, it's the wizard of oz deciding to split the difference between 2 either/or numbers and call it "projected." That's why I came up with my own common sense (CRAP) projection, which I maintain is far more accurate than anything else I have seen quoted on this board.
By the way, I'm looking to buy 1 of 2 homes - 1 is $200,000, the other $300,000. How much money do I "project" having to spend? $250,000, of course! lol
Quote from: wh on February 28, 2013, 06:16:50 AMOur RPI is 63. The wh-developed Collegiate RPI Analytical Prognosticator (commonly referred to as CRAP) indicates that if we beat Green Bay and win the HL Tournament (including a game against Detroit) our RPI will be in the 50-55 range.
Quote from: wh on March 01, 2013, 02:46:31 PMThat's why I came up with my own common sense (CRAP) projection, which I maintain is far more accurate than anything else I have seen quoted on this board.
I think this CRAP idea has both merit and potential so I would advise you to copyright the Collegiate RPI Analytical Prognosticator title and we will do our best to help you get it off the ground. Your goal should then be for an appearance on ESPN where they ask the following 2 questions. "What is this CRAP and how does this CRAP work?"
From now on when people ask me "who gives a CRAP?" I will say, "why my friend wh of course."
Are you in search of investors? Because I know a few people who are would like a piece of CRAP.
http://www.rpiforecast.com/live-rpi.html (http://www.rpiforecast.com/live-rpi.html)
Quote
Rank Team RPI W-L Conf SOS Rk SOS AWP Rk AWP OOC W-L OOC RPI OOC SOS
58 Detroit 0.5691 18-11 Horz 97 0.5366 82 0.6667 6-7 76 18
62 Valparaiso 0.5653 23-7 Horz 175 0.4904 26 0.7899 10-4 78 231
Both teams gained today, though when I looked at it the first time, Detroit was ranked 59th. When I went back to it a few minutes later, they had advanced to 58th.
I was surprised we didn't gain more - but it looks like we had dropped to 66 (or so) before the win.
Quote from: agibson on March 02, 2013, 11:29:55 PM
I was surprised we didn't gain more - but it looks like we had dropped to 66 (or so) before the win.
We actually spent about 30 minutes at 61, until BYU won and traded places with us again.
Quote from: StlVUFan on March 03, 2013, 12:28:16 AM
Quote from: agibson on March 02, 2013, 11:29:55 PM
I was surprised we didn't gain more - but it looks like we had dropped to 66 (or so) before the win.
We actually spent about 30 minutes at 61, until BYU won and traded places with us again.
We were at 61 with Baylor at 60... When Baylor lost I came back Alabama who was at 63 had taken that 60 spot without even playing a game. RPI is weird.
(http://www.easymemes.com/uploads/memes/76257_JtIeNxFDCkcCheA.jpg)
Valpo RPI #62
Baylor RPI #63
Did anyone predict that pre-season?
According to Nolan the WAC is at this moment .0002 away from moving into the 12th position ahead of the HL.
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2013/conferencerpi (http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2013/conferencerpi)
Quote from: FWalum on February 28, 2013, 10:17:25 AMI agree, but in defense of the number crunchers it is also important to know where we stand against our peers if the goal is to become a program that can be chosen as an at large candidate in those years when you don't win the conference tournament or if we want to be considered for a multi-bid conference.
I agree, as I also look to the computer rankings for comparisons. As for an at-large berth, we need to be in the top 40 of RPI or other polls (the NCAA selection committee uses more than RPI). To be considered for an at-large, we need to be in top 50. I use the Massey comparison rankings, which averages most of the rankings and polls.
http://www.masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm (http://www.masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm)
Quote from: covufan on March 05, 2013, 09:46:53 AM
Quote from: FWalum on February 28, 2013, 10:17:25 AMI agree, but in defense of the number crunchers it is also important to know where we stand against our peers if the goal is to become a program that can be chosen as an at large candidate in those years when you don't win the conference tournament or if we want to be considered for a multi-bid conference.
I agree, as I also look to the computer rankings for comparisons. As for an at-large berth, we need to be in the top 40 of RPI or other polls (the NCAA selection committee uses more than RPI). To be considered for an at-large, we need to be in top 50. I use the Massey comparison rankings, which averages most of the rankings and polls.
http://www.masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm (http://www.masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm)
Right now I'm liking Nolan:
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2013/npi (http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2013/npi)
Valpo was 60 RPI pretty much all day. Valpo was down .01 to Alabama. Looked at all Big South teams impacted by Alabama (was at 59) and of course, Coastal Carolina had a .01 impact. There was a brief time where Coastal Carolina lost and Valpo was exactly tied with Alabama (they had a presumable alphabetical tiebreaker). Then Alabama lost, so Valpo moved up the full spot to sit at 59. Detroit is now at 58. Funny how close they are.
Old news, but let me slap this up for posterity.
Valpo continues to be outside of any upward momentum.
Wright State did pick up one #25 vote.
Update: March 4th, 2013
1. Gonzaga (31) 29-2 775 1 West Coast
2. Middle Tennessee 27-4 730 2 Sun Belt
3. Saint Mary's 26-5 692 4 West Coast
4. Louisiana Tech 24-3 653 7 WAC
5. Belmont 24-6 642 6 Ohio Valley
6. Stephen F. Austin 24-3 577 8 Southland
7. Creighton 24-7 572 11 Missouri Valley
8. Akron 23-5 568 5 Mid-American
9. Bucknell 25-5 534 9 Patriot
10. Davidson 23-7 522 10 Southern
11. Wichita State 24-7 487 3 Missouri Valley
12. Valparaiso 24-7 441 12 Horizon
13. Montana 20-6 354 14 Big Sky
14. Denver 19-8 352 16 WAC
15. Weber State 22-5 315 18 Big Sky
16. BYU 21-10 309 15 West Coast
17. Stony Brook 23-6 269 19 America East
18. Ohio 21-8 249 17 Mid-American
19. South Dakota State 22-9 178 20 Summit
20. Western Illinois 21-7 134 21 Summit
21. Murray State 20-9 127 13 Ohio Valley
22. Lehigh 20-8 125 23 Patriot
23. Detroit 20-11 103 22 Horizon
24. Norfolk State 19-10 64 25 MEAC
25. Robert Morris 20-9 46 NR Northeast
OTHERS RECEIVING VOTES: New Mexico State 40, Eastern Kentucky 38, Northern Iowa 27, Evansville 22, Princeton 21, Indiana State 19, North Dakota State 18, College of Charleston 11, Long Beach State 11, North Carolina Central 8, Bryant 6, Northwestern State 5, Gardner-Webb 4, Niagara 4, Western Michigan 4, Elon 3, Northeastern 2, Tennessee State 2, Utah State 2, Hartford 1, Harvard 1, Mercer 1, Rider 1, Santa Clara 1, Wright State 1.
Hey,
Football guy wondering about that list.
Middle Tennessee of the Sun Belt #2 ??? #2 ???
Creighton of the MVC # 7 ???
Wichita State of the MVC #11 ???
Detroit #23 ???
Doesn't make sense to me. Looking for guidance and logic.
And, on the win Valpo's RPI rises... to 60. Not sure this should count as a home win if talksalot can't get behind us.
At least we've passed Detroit (who falls to 65).
The collection just behind us isn't bad either.
61 is Alabama on their half court buzzer beater.
62 is Baylor knocking off Kansas and keeping their NCAA hopes alive.
63 is Stephen T. Austin who will be tough competition for NCAA seeding.
64 Stanford.. I've got no story.
Home Win, for sure... I don't take credit for this one... that home CROWD was the catalyst for this win No Doubt !! First time ever with 15 "currently verifiable" wins at home in the same season... It wasn't too bad tonight doing both teams enthusiastically, unfortunately a little too easy at time for GB...
Someone will argue about the 1944-45 and the 1923-24 teams that had enough wins on their record to possibly break the 15-at-home or 10-on-the-road records... but ONE of the must be broken this year...research research research... something for the off-season.
Every bracketology I've seen has Valpo as a 14.
Quote from: oklahomamick on March 10, 2013, 09:34:33 AM
Every bracketology I've seen has Valpo as a 14.
The ESPN BPI rankings list has us at a 13. http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/type/tournament (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/type/tournament)
Well, well well... look who is receiving vote(s) in the AP Poll:
Others receiving votes: Saint Mary's 117, Butler 105, North Carolina 49, Colorado State 48, Temple 20, Belmont 13, UNLV 7, Wichita State 6, Kentucky 5, Oregon 4, Valparaiso 1, Villanova 1
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings/_/year/2013/poll/1/week/19 (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings/_/year/2013/poll/1/week/19)
Special thanks to John Feinstein of National Public Radio (one of three "national" voters along with Dick Vitale and Seth Davis) for the vote :thumbsup:
That sounds like it is a quality vote :)
Nice!
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/specials/interactives/_sports/top25_basketball/voters/men.html?SITE=AP (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/specials/interactives/_sports/top25_basketball/voters/men.html?SITE=AP)
Who was it last time? Elton Alexander of the Plain Dealer? With us at #23 in the preseason poll?
I can't help but note that Stephen T. Austin, who will likely compete with us for seeds, picked up a vote in the coaches' poll. (And has received votes in three other weeks this season.)
Who is Stephen T. Austin? An oil broker in Nebraska or some Wall Street guy? I know there is a school in Texas called Stephen F. Austin, and he has a bit of history behind him...
Quote from: agibson on March 11, 2013, 01:38:17 PM
Nice!
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/specials/interactives/_sports/top25_basketball/voters/men.html?SITE=AP (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/specials/interactives/_sports/top25_basketball/voters/men.html?SITE=AP)
Who was it last time? Elton Alexander of the Plain Dealer? With us at #23 in the preseason poll?
I can't help but note that Stephen T. Austin, who will likely compete with us for seeds, picked up a vote in the coaches' poll. (And has received votes in three other weeks this season.)
Ouch, that is sacrilege!!!! The Texas founders are rolling over in their graves, including Stephen F. Austin. ;)
Clearly I'm better off going back to my usual practice of leaving out the middle initial.
As for the mid-major poll, I'm afraid Valpo may _remain_ stuck at 12.
LA Tech did drop two games on the road, but to the other top teams in the WAC (who's again passed us as a conference). I don't see them falling all the way to 12, but who knows.
Similarly I don't imagine that Wichita State falling in the MVC title game is enough to allow us to pass them - but maybe.
Quote from: ValpoHoops on March 11, 2013, 01:27:45 PMSpecial thanks to John Feinstein of National Public Radio (one of three "national" voters along with Dick Vitale and Seth Davis) for the vote
I'm sure that the victory over Cuonzo Martin's Missouri State Bears has stuck in Dick's mind and keeps Valpo in his thoughts over other teams. I find John Feinstein very capable of looking outside all the hype and really evaluating the teams. His reports on NPR are extremely fascinating.
Quote from: bbtds on March 11, 2013, 04:58:26 PM
Quote from: ValpoHoops on March 11, 2013, 01:27:45 PMSpecial thanks to John Feinstein of National Public Radio (one of three "national" voters along with Dick Vitale and Seth Davis) for the vote
I'm sure that the victory over Cuonzo Martin's Missouri State Bears has stuck in Dick's mind and keeps Valpo in his thoughts over other teams. I find John Feinstein very capable of looking outside all the hype and really evaluating the teams. His reports on NPR are extremely fascinating.
One more reason to support public radio...
Quote from: humbleopinion on March 11, 2013, 07:14:49 PM
Quote from: bbtds on March 11, 2013, 04:58:26 PM
Quote from: ValpoHoops on March 11, 2013, 01:27:45 PMSpecial thanks to John Feinstein of National Public Radio (one of three "national" voters along with Dick Vitale and Seth Davis) for the vote
I'm sure that the victory over Cuonzo Martin's Missouri State Bears has stuck in Dick's mind and keeps Valpo in his thoughts over other teams. I find John Feinstein very capable of looking outside all the hype and really evaluating the teams. His reports on NPR are extremely fascinating.
One more reason to support public radio...
WFYI gets my money here in Indy.
Quote from: agibson on March 11, 2013, 02:03:28 PMAs for the mid-major poll, I'm afraid Valpo may _remain_ stuck at 12.
Up to #10 FWIW
Indeed! I'd missed Akron's loss to Kent State. That dropped them six slots, and below us. Wichita State's loss in the MVC title game caused them, a little surprisingly, to swap places with us.
Wright State, deservedly, picks up some more votes. While Detroit hangs around in the top 25.
Update: March 11th, 2013
1. Gonzaga (31) 30-2 775 1 West Coast
2. Saint Mary's 27-5 719 3 West Coast
3. Belmont 26-6 695 5 Ohio Valley
4. Creighton 27-7 688 7 Missouri Valley
5. Stephen F. Austin 26-3 629 6 Southland
6. Middle Tennessee 28-5 627 2 Sun Belt
7. Bucknell 27-5 559 9 Patriot
8. Louisiana Tech 26-5 541 4 WAC
9. Davidson 25-7 521 10 Southern
10. Valparaiso 25-7 474 12 Horizon
11. Wichita State 26-8 463 11 Missouri Valley
12. Denver 21-8 455 14 WAC
13. Montana 23-6 412 13 Big Sky
14. Akron 24-6 380 8 Mid-American
15. Weber State 24-5 336 15 Big Sky
16. Ohio 23-8 290 18 Mid-American
17. South Dakota State 23-9 259 19 Summit
18. Western Illinois 22-7 220 20 Summit
19. BYU 21-11 215 16 West Coast
20. Stony Brook 24-7 151 17 America East
21. Norfolk State 21-10 111 24 MEAC
22. New Mexico State 21-10 94 NR WAC
23. Murray State 21-10 86 21 Ohio Valley
24. Detroit 20-12 56 23 Horizon
25. Florida Gulf Coast 24-10 50 NR Atlantic Sun
OTHERS RECEIVING VOTES: Eastern Kentucky 29, Lehigh 26, Wright State 21, Harvard 20, North Dakota State 16, College of Charleston 15, Evansville 15, Indiana State 13, North Carolina Central 11, Northwestern State 11, Florida International 10, LIU-Brooklyn 10, Northern Iowa 10, Albany 8, Pacific 8, Long Beach State 7, Western Michigan 7, Lafayette 5, Mount St. Mary's 5, Robert Morris 5, Utah State 5, Iona 4, Albany 3, Princeton 3, Western Kentucky 1, Vermont 1
With Warren Nolan down I'm mixing and matching RPI sources here a little, but these might be accurate.
On the win... we climb from 60 to 59. 0.5670 to 0.5713.
Louisiana Tech... 46
Akron... 51
Bucknell... 52
Davidson... 61
Baylor... 63
Stephen F. Austin.. 64
South Dakota State... 65
(Detroit.. 67)
Wright State... climbs from 141 to 139 on the loss.
Hopefully we get the 13 seed nod over SDSU!
What is hurting us is we do not have a quality win. SD St beat New Mexico at New Mexico. I think that gives them the edge.
Quote from: valpocleveland on March 13, 2013, 06:03:50 AM
What is hurting us is we do not have a quality win. SD St beat New Mexico at New Mexico. I think that gives them the edge.
Unfortunately, I think that's going to be the tiebreaker in most instances. That's a good win too. Valpo's quality win...(cue crickets).
Either way it won't matter too much, I'd rather have the right matchup over a better seed.
Quote from: valpocleveland on March 13, 2013, 06:03:50 AM
What is hurting us is we do not have a quality win. SD St beat New Mexico at New Mexico. I think that gives them the edge.
It would be a little odd for SDSU to get a 13 over us for a couple of reasons. In other computer rankings they are a fair amount below us, Sagarin for example, has us at 66 while SDSU is 94. Their strength of schedule is #233. Yes, they beat New Mexico but we weren't at full strength. They also lost to Belmont by 27, Minnesota by 24 and Murray State by 11. Finally, they lost to CSU Bakersfield (talk about a bad loss) who isn't even in a conference. Given many of their wins were against a far inferior conference, I sure don't see them getting the nod over us. I doubt we are in any trouble of getting a 13. Like tx though, I'd love to see them in Austin!
Quote from: vu72 on March 14, 2013, 01:02:44 PM
Quote from: valpocleveland on March 13, 2013, 06:03:50 AM
What is hurting us is we do not have a quality win. SD St beat New Mexico at New Mexico. I think that gives them the edge.
It would be a little odd for SDSU to get a 13 over us for a couple of reasons. In other computer rankings they are a fair amount below us, Sagarin for example, has us at 66 while SDSU is 94. Their strength of schedule is #233. Yes, they beat New Mexico but we weren't at full strength. They also lost to Belmont by 27, Minnesota by 24 and Murray State by 11. Finally, they lost to CSU Bakersfield (talk about a bad loss) who isn't even in a conference. Given many of their wins were against a far inferior conference, I sure don't see them getting the nod over us. I doubt we are in any trouble of getting a 13. Like tx though, I'd love to see them in Austin!
And this will be very interesting to me, because I think it could go either way. I don't know if there's a wrong answer here, but the question will be how much of a credit/penalty will there be for conference play.
The top four in the Summit actually have a better RPI than the top for in the Horizon according to RealTime RPI, but just barely. The Summit is 65,69,121, and 152 vs. The Horizon of 59 (Valpo), 67, 136, and 161. The big difference is the bottom feeders, as the Summit has all the rest of their teams at 241 or lower. The Horizon League only has 2 below that threshold. Does the committee care about beating bad teams vs. really bad teams? Hmm...
Does all that trump beating New Mexico? I don't know. One other thing to consider, is Nate Wolters. While it shouldn't matter, I suspect having an NBA prospect might get you a nod with all things being equal.
Quote from: milanmiracle on March 14, 2013, 01:40:00 PM
The Summit is 65,69,121, and 152 vs. The Horizon of 59 (Valpo), 67, 136, and 161.
That's pretty selective, though. Conferences are the sum of their parts, not just some members.
It's like cross-country:
if you counted the top one or two runners, HL wins.
if you counted the top three or four, Summit wins.
if you counted the top five, or six, or seven etc....the HL wins.
It shouldn't be that close if it matters that the HL is the #12 (avg RPI 169) conference and the Summit is #19 (avg RPI 199).
In fact, since December, only for one day has the Summit been any higher than #17.
Seems like a good time to redeploy...
(http://www.easymemes.com/uploads/memes/76127_5WxLsg5BRmTqo7l.jpg)
CBSSports has a decent tool for comparing the details of teams here: http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison)
Lots of good discussions here, but in my opinion, the overal RPI ranking of conferences isn't really a factor in seeding. What I'm trying to say is that it obviously impacts overall SOS and RPI, but beyond that, the committee doesn't really look at conference affiliation. Their task is to select the "best teams" and seed those teams based upon what they've achieved.
The SDSU vs. Valpo comparison is an interesting example, because in overal SOS and RPI, the two teams are very close (Valpo a slight edge in both). SDSU's conference SOS (306) is well below Valpo's (210), but their OOC SOS (48) is significantly better than Valpo's (230). In the past, the committee has tended to focus on (or at least mention) the OOC SOS, because those are the games that teams have control over.
There are a hundred different ways to look at these things ... trying to guess how the committee will evaluate things is anyone's guess.
USAToday has us at a 13 against #4 K-State.
Quote from: zvillehaze on March 14, 2013, 04:56:53 PMLots of good discussions here, but in my opinion, the overal RPI ranking of conferences isn't really a factor in seeding. What I'm trying to say is that it obviously impacts overall SOS and RPI, but beyond that, the committee doesn't really look at conference affiliation. Their task is to select the "best teams" and seed those teams based upon what they've achieved.
Ding!! The committee will look at raw numbers, not the conference affiliation.
(http://oi47.tinypic.com/28h2a8m.jpg)
they are 22-9. We're 25-7. Doesn't seem that close to me.
Admittedly, they have a slightly better OOC RPI, 66 to 78, but they're way worse and we're perfectly consistent (both 78s).
If they are ahead of us it is because of That Win, which, in the words of Jerry to George, "is a pretty big matzo ball"
Quote from: VULB#62 on March 14, 2013, 05:01:58 PM
USAToday has us at a 13 against #4 K-State.
One place had the K-State game in Kansas City. I wouldn't want to play K-State there, even though it is Missouri.
Quote from: covufan on March 15, 2013, 01:45:03 PM
Quote from: VULB#62 on March 14, 2013, 05:01:58 PM
USAToday has us at a 13 against #4 K-State.
One place had the K-State game in Kansas City. I wouldn't want to play K-State there, even though it is Missouri.
at least that's the good side of the line :)
Lunardi keeping us at a 13 against Arizona this time, while moving SDSU to a 13, and NMSU to a 14
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology)
USAToday agrees with Lunardi now: Valpo #13 v. #4 AZ =in the West.
You won't believe who got our vote in the AP Poll.
That's right.... Montana!
You won't believe who gave it to them.
John Feinstein, how could you!
I assume the mid-major poll's not done for the year? But maybe they're taking a week or two off before a final poll?
The last couple of years I seemed to trail off at the end of the season, so I'm not actually sure when they stop voting.
For fun, let me prefix last week's poll with their NCAA seed.
More games were played after this, but using this one removes the possibility of the NCAA Selection Committee biasing the coaches/coaching staffs polled.
Quote from: agibson on March 11, 2013, 09:33:40 PMUpdate: March 11th, 2013
#1 1. Gonzaga (31) 30-2 775 1 West Coast
#11 2. Saint Mary's 27-5 719 3 West Coast
#11 3. Belmont 26-6 695 5 Ohio Valley
#7 4. Creighton 27-7 688 7 Missouri Valley
NIT #5 5. Stephen F. Austin 26-3 629 6 Southland
#11 6. Middle Tennessee 28-5 627 2 Sun Belt
#11 7. Bucknell 27-5 559 9 Patriot
NIT #5 8. Louisiana Tech 26-5 541 4 WAC
#14 9. Davidson 25-7 521 10 Southern
#14 10. Valparaiso 25-7 474 12 Horizon
#9 11. Wichita State 26-8 463 11 Missouri Valley
NIT #3 12. Denver 21-8 455 14 WAC
#13 13. Montana 23-6 412 13 Big Sky
#12 14. Akron 24-6 380 8 Mid-American
CIT 15. Weber State 24-5 336 15 Big Sky (Is this actually pronounced Weeber?!)
NIT #6 16. Ohio 23-8 290 18 Mid-American
#13 17. South Dakota State 23-9 259 19 Summit
CBI 18. Western Illinois 22-7 220 20 Summit
NIT #3 19. BYU 21-11 215 16 West Coast
NIT #7 20. Stony Brook 24-7 151 17 America East
NIT #8 21. Norfolk State 21-10 111 24 MEAC
#13 22. New Mexico State 21-10 94 NR WAC
nada? 23. Murray State 21-10 86 21 Ohio Valley
NIT #6 24. Detroit 20-12 56 23 Horizon
#15 25. Florida Gulf Coast 24-10 50 NR Atlantic Sun
OTHERS RECEIVING VOTES: CIT Eastern Kentucky 29, CBI Lehigh 26, CIT Wright State 21, #14 Harvard 20,CBI North Dakota State 16, CBI College of Charleston 15, CIT Evansville 15, NIT #6 Indiana State 13, North Carolina Central 11, #14 Northwestern State 11, Florida International 10, #16 LIU-Brooklyn 10, CIT Northern Iowa 10, Albany 8, #15 Pacific 8, NIT #7 Long Beach State 7, CBI Western Michigan 7, Lafayette 5, Mount St. Mary's 5, NIT #8 Robert Morris 5, Utah State 5, Iona 4, Albany 3, Princeton 3, #16 Western Kentucky 1, CBI Vermont 1
Some connection, certainly. And some real disconnects.
http://college-basketball.si.com/2013/03/19/perception-grandstanding-and-the-non-mystery-of-scheduling/ (http://college-basketball.si.com/2013/03/19/perception-grandstanding-and-the-non-mystery-of-scheduling/)
Interesting analysis of the MWC "gaming" the RPI system (or just being better than the SEC and ACC this year) includes these really important paragraphs:
QuoteThe RPI is not some secret sauce formula. It's an overly simplistic and widely public metric. A team's rank is of comprised 25 percent of their record (adjusted, with flawed math, for home/away results), 50 percent of their composite opponents' record, and 25 percent of their opponents' composite record. For the latter two categories, just add up wins and losses. This is the easiest thing in the world to calculate, and quite simple to "rig" in your favor. All you have to do is avoid teams that are going to be really bad, and beat the teams you should beat. The Mountain West doesn't have the guarantee game budgets of truly high-major programs, nor an endless supply of bad D-I teams close by who are willing to take a check for a beating. So they played smarter schedules and more non-DI teams, and this is the result.
It's not baseless perception that the Mountain West was a better conference than the SEC or ACC this season. It's based almost entirely on how the leagues did in nonconference play, which sets up self-fulfilling situations (good and bad) in league play in terms of RPI. In a league like the Mountain West, where homecourt advantage is so pronounced, it's even more self-fulfilling.
Almost a decade ago, the NCAA made an adjustment to the RPI formula to try to incentivize teams to play more road games. Of course, they screwed up the math such that the new formula rewards "not losing at home" more than it does "winning on the road," at least for what its primary purpose is: sorting teams that may make the NCAAs.
The formula adjustment for Factor I (your winning percentage) now credits you with 0.6 wins for a home win and 1.4 wins for a road victory. Likewise, you get 1.4 home losses for an actual home defeat and 0.6 losses for an away loss. That sounds like a reasonable plan until you realize that the target demographic — NCAA tournament-caliber teams — are all way above .500. As such, when you split two games (.500 overall), you want that impact to be as small as possible on your overall adjusted record, as determined by the RPI formula.
If you win at home and lose the away game, you would get an extra 0.6-0.6 added into your overall adjusted record. If you do it the other way, you get 1.4-1.4 added to your totals. If you are well above .500 overall, like all these NCAA caliber teams are, adding the 1.4-1.4 into the record drags you down more than the 0.6-0.6 does. In simple terms, losing home games (for 1.4 losses in your adjusted Factor I) is the worst thing you can do, and it's way more harmful than adding 1.4 wins to the ledger is helpful.
So the Mountain West compiled a great nonconference mark and then, because very few teams win on the road in that league, they basically supersized the impact of playing only good and decent teams in league play. Throw in the 14 non-DI games and they gamed the RPI formula to a remarkable extent this season. But they did it through smarter scheduling and performance on the court, not through any voodoo or imaginary media agenda that supports smaller leagues. And, honestly, the committee saw through some of it.
Here's the March 18 poll. (Though I'm pretty sure it didn't appear until at least the 19th.) Maybe this will be the last of the year?
Update: March 18th, 2013
1. Gonzaga (31) 31-2 775 1 West Coast
2. Belmont 26-6 717 3 Ohio Valley
3. Creighton 27-7 692 4 Missouri Valley
4. Saint Mary's 27-6 672 2 West Coast
5. Bucknell 28-5 634 7 Patriot
6. Middle Tennessee 28-5 626 6 Sun Belt
7. Stephen F. Austin 27-4 551 5 Southland
8. Davidson 26-7 546 9 Southern
9. Valparaiso 26-7 524 10 Horizon
10. Louisiana Tech 26-6 463 8 WAC
11. Wichita State 26-8 461 11 Missouri Valley
12. Montana 25-6 460 13 Big Sky
13. Akron 26-6 424 14 Mid-American
14. South Dakota State 25-9 362 17 Summit
15. Denver 21-9 328 12 WAC
16. Weber State 26-6 299 15 Big Sky
17. Ohio 24-9 257 16 Mid-American
18. BYU 21-11 223 19 West Coast
19. New Mexico State 24-10 223 22 WAC
20. Stony Brook 24-7 153 20 America East
21. Albany 24-10 124 NR America East
22. Norfolk State 21-11 89 21 MEAC
23. Detroit 20-12 88 24 Horizon
24. Northwestern State 23-8 64 NR Southland
25. Florida Gulf Coast 24-10 51 25 Atlantic Sun
OTHERS RECEIVING VOTES: Murray State 36, Pacific 32, Eastern Kentucky 31, Wright State 27, North Dakota State 26, Harvard 20, LIU-Brooklyn 17, Western Illinois 17, Indiana State 13, Evansville 12, Long Beach State 7, Lafayette 5, Northern Iowa 5, Robert Morris 5, College of Charleston 4, Iona 4, James Madison 2, Western Michigan 2, North Carolina Central 1, Southern 1, Utah State 1, Western Kentucky 1
Was there any mention of Florida Gulf Coast in the poll before this poll on March 18? Were they even in the "Others Receiving Votes" section?
N/R on March 10 to #25 on March 11. Never mentioned before March 11.
Valpo winds up 13th in final Mid-Majors poll. Detroit is 24th.
http://www.collegeinsider.com/mens-mid-major-top-25.php (http://www.collegeinsider.com/mens-mid-major-top-25.php)
Passed by Florida Gulf Coast... OK.
Update: April 10th, 2013
1. Wichita State (30) 30-9 774 11 Missouri Valley
2. Gonzaga (1) 32-3 745 1 West Coast
3. Creighton 28-8 709 3 Missouri Valley
4. Saint Mary's 28-7 673 4 West Coast
5. Belmont 26-7 622 2 Ohio Valley
6. Middle Tennessee 28-6 579 6 Sun Belt
7. Bucknell 28-6 558 5 Patriot
8. Stephen F. Austin 27-5 538 7 Southland
9. Davidson 26-8 526 8 Southern
10. Florida Gulf Coast 26-11 490 25 Atlantic Sun
11. Louisiana Tech 27-7 426 10 WAC
12. BYU 24-12 420 18 West Coast
13. Valparaiso 26-8 411 9 Horizon
14. Montana 25-7 333 12 Big Sky
15. Weber State 30-7 331 16 Big Sky
16. Denver 22-10 326 15 WAC
17. Akron 26-7 273 13 Mid-American
18. South Dakota State 25-10 235 14 Summit
19. Stony Brook 25-8 162 20 America East
20. Ohio 24-10 153 17 Mid-American
21. Harvard 20-10 150 NR Ivy
22. New Mexico State 24-11 149 19 WAC
23. Albany 24-11 90 21 America East
24. Detroit 20-13 75 23 Horizon
25. Robert Morris 24-11 56 NR Northeast
OTHERS RECEIVING VOTES: Mercer 43, Northwestern State 36, Pacific 33, Eastern Kentucky 31, Santa Clara 24, Norfolk State 15, Northern Iowa 13, Evansville 12, Indiana State 11, Murray State 10, Lehigh 8, Wright State 8, North Dakota State 7, LIU Brooklyn 6, George Mason 5, James Madison 5, Western Illinois 2, Elon 1, Southern 1.