Tiebreaker Scenario

[FWalum]

For all of you that are unaware, the real authority on this is StlVUFan.  Go to his blog http://horizonleague.blogspot.com/. He has been breaking it down for years.

[talksalot]

Which Puts CSU in the #4.  There is no scenario that I can make out where CSU moves to #3.

[SanityLost17]

For NCAA tournament seeding purposes.  We want to see CSU and GB.  They have the 2 best RPI's and winning against them will give us our best chance at a solid seed.

So, I guess I am rooting for Green Bay to win tonight, even though I really don't like the idea of playing CSU twice in a row!  Remember we played Green Bay twice in a row a few years back, and after killing them the 1st time, we needed a desperation 3 to win the tournament game.   

[talksalot]

on the StlFan blog...   which means the Commish's posting from last Sunday was wrong on the OAK/CSU opportunities.


Valpo's win over CSU clinched the 1 seed and hosting duties. And with that, all RPI ties are gone.

Today's Green Bay-Oakland game settles the remainder of the top 4 seeds. If Green Bay wins, they get the 2 seed, Oakland gets the 3 seed, and CSU gets the 4 seed (Oakland wins the tiebreaker with CSU because they split with Valpo while CSU was swept by Valpo0.

If Oakland beats Green Bay, Oakland gets the 2 seed, CSU gets the 3 seed, and Green Bay gets the 4 seed (CSU wins the tiebreaker since they swept Green Bay).

[valpotx]

Yes, if Oakland wins, GB is the 4.  They and CSU would be 11-5, and CSU beat GB both games.  Oakland would be 12-4 and not a part of the tie-breaker anymore. 

I would much rather play CSU or Detroit over GB, as well.  GB has other players that can hurt you besides Sykes.  Our length really bothers CSU and Waters is a bumblef*ck, and Detroit has Howard Jr/Bass and that is about it, while Ray Sr is also a bumblef*ck.  Wardle is a piece of crap, but he is a good play/defense schemer against Valpo.

[wh]

***I don't want to play CSU because it's hard to beat a team 3 times in a row.
***I don't want to play GB because they take away our inside game better than anyone in the league and you never know when Sykes might go off.
***I don't want to play Oakland because they have some sort of bizarre ability to hit desperation 3's (seems satanic) when we're trying to close out the game.

Who does that leave - Detroit maybe?  Detroit just beat us so their confidence level...........

Why can't just do things like the Ivy League? 

[hailcrusaders]

How much credence do we put into the "can't beat a good team 3 times" adage w respect to CSU?

[valpotx]

None at all.  As a player, you don't even think about it.  Both teams are going to be trying to advance in the tourney, and it won't be a thought in any of our player's minds that beating someone 3 times is hard. 

[agibson]

That makes sense, but, I suppose, it might not be psychological.  It might just be reality.  That after two failures they're bound to find some way to beat your defense, or stymie your offense, etc.

Not sure I buy it.  My thoughts always tend first two statistics.  The first two games give you a good prediction of who the better team is.  Surely this is the logic that applies to teams at very different levels.  It should be pretty easy to beat UIC x3.

[classof2014]

No matter how you put it winning the tournament won't be an easy task. We have the best chance but Oakland, GB, and CSU all can beat us. I'm hoping we wind up playing Detroit in the semis, they beat us on their court but we played an awful game. We can beat the other 3 and I think we match up the best with GB, they are an awful shooting team and need to get to the rim to score and that's the strength of our defense. It's great to have a week off now. Gives them some time to celebrate winning the regular season but come Monday its back to work.

To me the most likely teams to come out of the HL are:

1. Valpo: home court advantage
2. CSU: There defense keeps games really tight
3. Oakland: They can score with the best of them and have a very solid team
4. Green Bay: If Sykes plays at his best they can beat anyone but they also aren't a very complete team, can't shoot, and are awful from the FT line
5. Detroit: To me the dark horse. I'm highly doubtful they'll win the tournament but out of the bottom seeds they're the ones that can make some noise. I can see them making it to the semis and that's as far as they get.

[justducky]

Maybe I worry too much but I do not like the fact that we will sit for 8 long days while everyone else will have to play either today and or Tuesday or Friday. Too much rest can be just as bad as having none. This is one of the things I have never liked about the double bye.

[valpo4life]

talksalot, the section you referenced earlier today from the Commish was indeed correct. You just misinterpreted that's all.

As far as the too much rest argument, Bryce will have them go at it in practice probably on Wednesday being the peak. The part I like about this is now we have a week where there is no game preparation need in practice, all the time can be devoted to us getting better as a team which doesn't get to happen a whole lot during the year.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Craig Hammel from the Horizon League posted on twitter last night after our win the scenarios. Which is where I got my information for my post.

Given the choice between an official from the league and some dude on UDM's blog who we only know by his screen name...

...you gotta go with the random dude, right?

[hailcrusaders]

Oakland:
Scary because... they can get hot in a hurry with their outside shooting. Kampe is one of the better in-game coaches in the league. Petros can match Vashil's height. Grizzlies have something to prove.
Not scary because... we wouldn't face them until the final, if they get that far. They don't play all that well on the road. The more games they have to play (esp. if they get the 3 seed), the more tired they'll be, and they aren't real deep.

Green Bay:
Scary because... Keifer, Love, Mays. Play well down low, can force TOs. Sykes won't go down without a fight his senior year.
Not scary because... banged up a bit? We play well with them (only lost by 1 on the road).

CSU:
Scary because... "can't beat a team three times", if you buy into it. Plays physical, can match our style. I think Waters is a better coach than we give him credit for. We'll probably get them Saturday.
Not scary because...have to get through Detroit first if they get the 4. Haven't been playing all that well of late.

[a3uge]

Tell the "its hard to beat a team 3 times in a season" to Butler. We completely destroyed them that game. Hoping for something similar this year.

[agibson]

the section you referenced earlier today from the Commish was indeed correct. You just misinterpreted that's all.

Can happen to anybody.  The rules are a bit intricate, at can make your head spin after a while.  For a while, I'd totally forgotten that now _we_ were the chief tiebreaker.  That our sweep of CSU now puts them on the _losing_ end of many tiebreaker scenarios.

[agibson]

For NCAA tournament seeding purposes.  We want to see CSU and GB.  They have the 2 best RPI's and winning against them will give us our best chance at a solid seed.

GB for sure.  I would have thought CSU vs. Oakland wouldn't make much of a difference.  But, RPI Forecast/Wizard suggests that it does.  Home wins over GB and CSU could push us 66 --> 48. While GB and OAK would only be 66 --> 52.  Something like Oakland and Detroit might net us merely 61st place in the RPI.

That said, we're going to get to play 4/5/8 and then 2/3/6/7.  And, it looks like GB and CSU are guaranteed to be on opposite sides of the bracket (can't be 2-3).  So, our ideal case should remain alive through tonight.

Ideally, I guess, if we're just trying to maximize our RPI, GB wins to boost their RPI, which is good so long as we play them.

All of this might change on an OAK win, boosting their RPI.  But maybe it won't change the calculus too much.
 

[oklahomamick]

Green Bay: Scary because... Keifer, Love, Mays. Play well down low, can force TOs. Sykes won't go down without a fight his senior year. Not scary because... banged up a bit? We play well with them (only lost by 1 on the road).

Watching the Oakland/UWGB game and Sykes is back.  It's not the same Sykes as we saw in the our two games.  He lookes determined when going to the rim and he's hitting his jumpshots.  10 points in the first 10 minutes. 

Its fun watching these two very small but  athletic guards go against each other.  (Felder and Sykes)

[agibson]

Its fun watching these two very small but  athletic guards go against each other.  (Felder and Sykes)

Definitely.  They're using a ton of their teams' possessions.

This PBP guy's a bit odd - it's like he has a lousy view of the court.  He keeps saying, half-surprised, "ref said his foot was on the line" when they're just deep 2's - Sykes straddling the line, etc.  Not really close at all.

[hailcrusaders]

Tell the "its hard to beat a team 3 times in a season" to Butler. We completely destroyed them that game. Hoping for something similar this year.

While you're at it, tell it to Broekhoff and co. in 2012, or LVD last spring.

I don't know if I believe in the adage in all honesty. Generally if you beat a team twice, it's because you're better than them. That said, if you win two tight games against a team that's right there with you, perhaps a few calls/bounces went your way the first few times that might not the third...

[a3uge]

Tell the "its hard to beat a team 3 times in a season" to Butler. We completely destroyed them that game. Hoping for something similar this year.

While you're at it, tell it to Broekhoff and co. in 2012, or LVD last spring.

I don't know if I believe in the adage in all honesty. Generally if you beat a team twice, it's because you're better than them. That said, if you win two tight games against a team that's right there with you, perhaps a few calls/bounces went your way the first few times that might not the third...

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

[hailcrusaders]

Tell the "its hard to beat a team 3 times in a season" to Butler. We completely destroyed them that game. Hoping for something similar this year.

While you're at it, tell it to Broekhoff and co. in 2012, or LVD last spring.

I don't know if I believe in the adage in all honesty. Generally if you beat a team twice, it's because you're better than them. That said, if you win two tight games against a team that's right there with you, perhaps a few calls/bounces went your way the first few times that might not the third...

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

Well yes. Everyone who has taken a statistics class can tell you about the independence of variables. I'm just saying that you can't count on beating a team by five points every time. If you keep playing them, they'll beat you eventually. That doesn't mean that GB or Oakland are any less likely to beat us than CSU is, but we certainly think less of the Vikings just because we eked out Ws before.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Well, it might not be CSU to begin with, because GB winning sets up a Detroit-CSU game...Detroit's beaten them once already this year?

[valpo4life]

I'm happy with getting CSU on our side of the bracket. GB and Oakland each have players (Sykes and Felder) who can win a game by themselves. Or at the very least keep them in it. Stay away from them and go against a team we just built some confidence against again. Assuming they get by Detroit, of course.

[crusadermoe]

Ditto that.