The Valparaiso Beacons Fan Zone Forum

Valpo Sports => Valpo Basketball => Topic started by: Pgmado on March 12, 2015, 01:46:10 AM

Title: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: Pgmado on March 12, 2015, 01:46:10 AM
Alright, let's have some fun. Who wins in a game between the 2012-13 Crusaders and the 2014-15 Crusaders. Vashil Fernandez is the only link between the two and he played a total of one minute in the 2013 Horizon League tournament.

Buggs vs. Carter

Bogan/Kenney vs. Walkers

Broekhoff vs. Peters

Van Wijk vs. Fernandez

Boggs/Dority/Coleman/Capobianco vs. Skara/Adekoya/Nickerson/Joseph

Where, if at all, does the current team have a personnel advantage? Which team is tougher? Which team wins? How much would you pay to see this game happen?

Go.
Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: valpopal on March 12, 2015, 02:58:35 AM
Quote from: Pgmado on March 12, 2015, 01:46:10 AM
Alright, let's have some fun. Who wins in a game between the 2012-13 Crusaders and the 2014-15 Crusaders. Vashil Fernandez is the only link between the two and he played a total of one minute in the 2013 Horizon League tournament.

Buggs vs. Carter

Bogan/Kenney vs. Walkers

Broekhoff vs. Peters

Van Wijk vs. Fernandez

Boggs/Dority/Coleman/Capobianco vs. Skara/Adekoya/Nickerson/Joseph

Where, if at all, does the current team have a personnel advantage? Which team is tougher? Which team wins? How much would you pay to see this game happen?

Go.


(http://i58.tinypic.com/2cz1wy9.jpg)
Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: Valpofan00 on March 12, 2015, 06:47:04 AM
2014-2015 wins. I'd pay $100.
Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: vu72 on March 12, 2015, 07:18:23 AM
I posted this on another thread yesterday:

I think this team is a fair amount better then our 12-13 team.  Let's call Rowdy and Alec a push.  Kevin would have a hard time not getting stuffed by this year's version of Vashil.  Let's also call Keith and Erik Buggs a push. I'd take Adekoye over Bobby C.  Then it's Boggs, Kenney, Dority and Bogan versus T. Walker, D. Walker, E. Victor and Max Joseph.  Oh yeah, I'll take David Skara over Jordan Coleman as well. This year's guards are faster, stronger and more athletic. (other then Erik Buggs!)
Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: elephtheria47 on March 12, 2015, 07:34:17 AM
2013 played smarter but 2015 is more talented and a more well rounded team.
Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: classof2014 on March 12, 2015, 08:22:02 AM
The 2015 is far more talented than the 2013 team. The 2013 couldn't win how the 15 team does by just being more physical, they were a finesse team and needed to hit shots in order to win, when the shots fell they looked really good but when they didn't they could lose to about anybody.

The 2013 team to me resembles more of a typical mid-major team, one star player and everyone plays well together, although they turned it over a ton. Rowdy I think is the best player between the two teams, I give senior Rowdy the edge over sophomore Alec. I think next year's version of Alec will be better than senior version of Rowdy.

What separates the 2015 Crusaders from the 2013 Crusaders is athleticism. This may be the most athletic team Valpo has had, ever. This team has a better shot at a run than the 13 team did, I think they can definitely win a few games and make some noise. They have the athleticism to compete with the power teams, can shoot from outside, and can play shutdown defense.

Don't get me wrong, the 2013 Crusaders were one of the best Valpo teams. They got us back to the NCAAs for the first time in 9 seasons and became the stepping stone for the team we have today. Without Rowdy, KVW, EB, Kenney, etc... there is no dancing this season.
Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: a3uge on March 12, 2015, 08:22:04 AM
Great hypothetical, but difficult choice. That 2011-12 team was the 4th best shooting team in the country, and were in a more difficult conference. But this 2014-15 team plays much better defense and rebounds better. The eye test seems to be 2011, but the stats say 2014.

As far as a matchup goes - I think our physical defense would give the 2011 team fits. Wait, is this game at home or on a neutral court (which would be at home right?)

Hopefully this discussion will be meaningless in a few weeks when we make the Sweet 16 :p
Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: Kyle321n on March 12, 2015, 09:16:06 AM
I'm guessing we're assuming both teams are 100% healthy (sans Lexus since we played this season without him entirely)

Looking at the styles of the two teams, they are quite different. 2013 pushed the tempo quite a bit more and averaged 3 more possessions per game than the 2015 squad.  2013 also shot the ball better with a 55% eFG% vs 51.4% for 2015. A strength of this year's team, limiting inside scoring, is quickly eliminated by the 2013's relying on the 3 to score. Neither team forced a lot of turnovers, but 2013 was a bit more sloppy with the ball.

Everyone would want to see Rowdy vs. Alec straight up, but we've all seen how Bryce protects his best offensive player from tough defensive assignments. In reality what we'd get is Alec vs. Kenny and Rowdy vs. Darien. Personally I think Alec eats Kenny's lunch and Darien does a solid job defensively against Rowdy. The main attraction would be KVW/Bobby vs. Vashil/Jubril. I think Bobby would actually have the biggest advantage of these 4 and he would have one of his better games. Vashil struggled a little against true bigs who were able to step out and hit a shot or two (see JJ Penoske). I think we'd get a few instances of #No3sBobby.

Guard play is tough for me judge. Tevonn hasn't shown any signs of immaturity and really looked like a junior out there. Keith really seems to cause this offense to gel and when he's out on the court with EVictor, they seems to really mesh together well.

On the other side Buggs was a fantastic distributor and, like Keith, caused the offense to really click. He was also able to handle any defensive assignment. Would EVic give him fits though? Oh definitely, but I think Buggs' speed would cause Bryce to match Keith against him. And could Will handle Tevonn defensively? I mean Tevonn would have 0 trouble defending Will, but watching Will try to defend Tevonn? That's trouble for 2013.

Key bench roles. Skara and Boggs filled two totally different roles. Skara can drive to the lane unlike anyone else on 2013's team while Boggs was a master at getting open for a quick jumper. They would be fun to watch go against each other head to head, and you probably would see it quite a bit.

   2013      Advantage      2015   
      
   Starting Guards   
   
   Buggs   
   «   
   Carter   
   Bogan   
   »»   
   T. Walker   
      
   Front Court   
   
   Broekhoff   
   =   
   D. Walker   
   Kenny   
   »»   
   Peters   
   Van Wijk   
   =   
   Fernandez   
      
   Bench   
   
   Boggs   
   =   
   Skara   
   Capobianco   
   «   
   Adekoya   
   Coleman   
   »   
   Nickerson   
   Dority   
   «   
   Joseph   

Personally I think it's a great game and if 2013 is hitting their threes it could be trouble, but played 10 times I think 2015 wins 7 of those. TWalker and Alec are just too much for 2013 to try to defend and if they switch Buggs and Bogan then I think Carter has himself a game. The best line up 2013 could put out there to defend 2015 would be Buggs (TWalker)-Dority (Carter)-Broekhoff (DWalker)-Van Wijk (Peters)-Capobianco (Vashil), but I can't think of an instance where Bryce did that and you would be emptying out all your height on the court at once. The second unit wouldn't be able to handle Evictor-Skara-Jubril up front since they would only have Coleman with any size.
Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: vu84v2 on March 12, 2015, 12:05:11 PM
I would go with 2015, as long as Tevonn Walker is included. Peters and Broekhoff is a wash. Van Wijk over Fernandez (Van Wijk's defense is better than Vashil's offense). However, Vashil's contribution on the defensive end is enormous and is critical for any success going forward. Kenney was a nice role player and more developed than Skara is at this point. The Walkers are better than Coleman, Bogan and Boggs, though I would have them as a push with Dority (all are streaky). Carter and Buggs is probably a push, but Buggs was so good at some things and so bad at others.

Two differences between the teams that could bode better for Valpo this time in the tournament: More potential options that can potentially create shots, better overall defense
Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: LaPorteAveApostle on March 12, 2015, 12:45:19 PM
I sense a Paul blogpost about that game simulator between the two teams in our future.

I think what I appreciate most in the difference between the two teams is the feel in the respective years.

2013 we were expected to win, nearly every game we played.  Those are some heavy expectations.  The way in which we won the tournament was awesome, and the feeling of returning to the Dance, whence we had been gone too long?  Wonderful, particularly since Valpo fans had come to believe a bid was almost a birthright for a decade in there.

But this year was better because it was such a surprise.  Everyone and their favorite Clinton had already set their sights on 2016.  Exceeding expectations is so much more fun than wearing the burden thereof! (a subtle warning for next year...)
Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: talksalot on March 12, 2015, 01:44:29 PM
Who's going to officiate this game?  "the Let'em play" crew we had Tuesday? or the "Hand's off" crew we had at Oakland?  The 2013 team hit free throws.

oh... Can I be the announcer?  [so I don't have to pay the $100?] [or $95 with a $5 concession voucher]

Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: hailcrusaders on March 12, 2015, 01:56:35 PM
I made a Strat-o-matic-like card and dice of all ten '11-'12 HL teams in my spare time a year or so ago that plays reasonably well. Since it is statistics-based, it is hard to account for every nuance of individual matchups (KVWs moves, muscle, and experience vs. Vashils length, or Tevonn's grittiness and hustle) that do not show up in the box score. But, if I ever get around to making '12-13 and '14-15 Valpo teams, I'll let you all know how a head to head matchup goes lol.
Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: Kyle321n on March 12, 2015, 02:24:15 PM
Quote from: talksalot on March 12, 2015, 01:44:29 PM
Who's going to officiate this game?  "the Let'em play" crew we had Tuesday? or the "Hand's off" crew we had at Oakland?  The 2013 team hit free throws.

oh... Can I be the announcer?  [so I don't have to pay the $100?] [or $95 with a $5 concession voucher]



I think we're going to get either 2013 version of you or 2015 version to announce the game, depending on who the home team is.

As for the officiating I think that would only effect the 2013 team, the 2015 team has learned to adjust, as seen by Tuesday night's game where they came in playing less physical and in the second half seemed to beef up a little.
Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: sliman on March 12, 2015, 02:43:56 PM
I'll go with 2015 because I think they rebound better an play better defense than the '13 team, especially working together on defense better than the '13 team which often was slow rotating to cover for a teammate as I recall.  At the same time, '13 probably had better outside shooters (except for Eric, of course) which would have forced the defense further from the basket than we've had to play most of this year (something that could be a factor depending upon whom we play in the tournament).  Vashil is far more effective when he's got help than if he's having to guard someone one-on-one.
Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: LaPorteAveApostle on March 12, 2015, 03:17:18 PM
Anyone else, though, think that a great deal of the difference between the two teams is due to the sloggification of college basketball since?

If they were to play under the 2013 rules, I think that year would win.  If it were called like it is these days (assuming that's vaguely consistent, of course), 2015 would win.

They were both successful despite different styles because that's the environment under which they thrived.
Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: nkvu on March 12, 2015, 03:34:30 PM
Interesting to compare senior Rowdy to sophomore Alec. I give an edge to senior Rowdy. Rowdy is a touch quicker and a better ball handler. He could take a defensive rebound, dribble the length of the court and slam it. I don't think Alec is quite there yet. Alec is a bigger body but Rowdy had a knack for rebounding, a real nose for the ball. I'd call that a push. The one part I would give an edge to Alec is around the rim. Alec can use his left hand and Rowdy couldn't. I don't know how many times I remember Rowdy getting a step driving to his left but would then have to give up the advantage because he had to come back to his right hand at the rim. I hope he has been working on that as a pro. Again edge to Rowdy for his all around game.

Overall I think 2015 would take a 10 game series 6 games to 4 due to greater length at key positions, tougher defense, and more athleticism. But man it would be fun to watch.
Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: talksalot on March 12, 2015, 04:52:57 PM
Noise?

how about the Valpo-B***Ler game...from 2011...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_XiVuZX6f0U (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_XiVuZX6f0U)
Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: Chairback on March 12, 2015, 08:45:28 PM
2013 team turned the ball over way too much for an experienced team.  I also think they never clicked as a team and didn't play up to their potential.  To me they never got better from the 1st preseason game.   The loses at home to Loyola and Detroit should not have happened.  Plus the championship game was hard to watch as I believe we had 25+ TO's in the game.

You can't compared a senior Rowdy vs a sophomore Alec.  Alec, although excellent, is still developing.  Rowdy could do it all his junior and senior years.

I say the 2014-2015 wins.  Buggs could not shoot and T Walker would take the lane away from him.  Nickerson and Skara would be hard for 2013 reserves to guard.
Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: usc4valpo on March 12, 2015, 09:29:26 PM
14-15 team.  I think these guys can advance in the tournament, I cannot say that about the 12-13 team.
Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: SanityLost17 on March 12, 2015, 09:40:35 PM
Bryce is a much better coach in 2015.  In close games, he would out coach the 2013 version of himself. 
Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: LaPorteAveApostle on March 12, 2015, 10:04:30 PM
Good point.  2015 Bryce would still have his jacket on when 2013 Bryce used his last TO.
Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: justducky on March 12, 2015, 11:45:36 PM
Quote from: Chairback on March 12, 2015, 08:45:28 PM2013 team turned the ball over way too much for an experienced team.  I also think they never clicked as a team and didn't play up to their potential.  To me they never got better from the 1st preseason game.
Pretty much true with the reasons that they never really clicked being their lack of speed on offense, slower defensive foot speed, and inexplicable turnover numbers.

Quote from: Chairback on March 12, 2015, 08:45:28 PMYou can't compared a senior Rowdy vs a sophomore Alec.  Alec, although excellent, is still developing.
True, but we can compare a sophomore Alec and a sophomore Rowdy and Alec wins this in a landslide. Anyway that 7 of 10 number for the 14-15 team sounds just about perfect.
Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: a3uge on March 13, 2015, 09:18:59 AM



Quote from: Chairback on March 12, 2015, 08:45:28 PM
2013 team turned the ball over way too much for an experienced team.  I also think they never clicked as a team and didn't play up to their potential.  To me they never got better from the 1st preseason game.   The loses at home to Loyola and Detroit should not have happened.  Plus the championship game was hard to watch as I believe we had 25+ TO's in the game.

Well they did win us our first HL title and got us back into the tournament, but you're right - tons of potential for much more. We had a fairly decent OOC schedule with a chance for a quality win against New Mexico and SLU and it didn't happen. Dropping games to Nebraska and Oakland were disappointing, but we did have a good win at Murray State. The RPIs may have been essentially the same, but the difference seems to be the conference in 2013 was much better - 6 teams above .500 vs only 3 this year.

Quote from: justducky on March 12, 2015, 11:45:36 PM
Pretty much true with the reasons that they never really clicked being their lack of speed on offense, slower defensive foot speed, and inexplicable turnover numbers.

Quote from: Chairback on March 12, 2015, 08:45:28 PMYou can't compared a senior Rowdy vs a sophomore Alec.  Alec, although excellent, is still developing.
True, but we can compare a sophomore Alec and a sophomore Rowdy and Alec wins this in a landslide. Anyway that 7 of 10 number for the 14-15 team sounds just about perfect.

I think we'd have to compare sophomore Alec with senior Rowdy, otherwise you could elevate LVD and and Vashil to seniors as well.

Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: vu72 on March 13, 2015, 09:32:21 AM
This year's team is just much bigger--assuming the regular playing rotations.  T Walker and W Bogan are about the same size.  Carter and Buggs are "about" the same size. Alec and Rowdy are about the same size. Vashil is bigger then Kevin. And D Walker is about the same size as Matt Kenney.  Now, on to the reserves.  Dority, Capo, Boggs and Coleman.  Versus Jabril, Skara, E Victor and Max Joseph.  Not only is this year's team bigger, it is also much more athletic and more muscular.

Also agree that Rowdy as a senior is a more complete player then Sophomore Alec, although I don't recall Rowdy ever being able to post up like Alec does.  Both are/were very good rebounders. This year's team has about an 8 rebound edge over the full year's opponents.  Doubt the 12-13 team was anywhere close to that.
Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: classof2014 on March 13, 2015, 09:33:07 AM
To me Nov. 2012 version beats Nov 2014 version but the March 15 beats March 13 team. This year's team improved much more than the 2012/13 team did. Part of that is due to there being so many young/new faces on the team and in January the team found their identity. During the last month or so they took care of the ball and really seemed to complement one another really well.

The 2013 team was much more predictable which I think it made it easier to gameplan against for opposing teams. Erik couldn't shoot from outside nor the FT line, so give him space on the perimeter and if he drives the lane be physical, KVW would post up on every offensive possession, not that it's a bad thing but like most centers/#5 forwards they aren't much of a shooter, Rowdy you knew on offense he'd either shoot the 3 or cut to the rim, he was by far the hardest to guard because of this and was by far the best player on the team, he created the most matchup problems. Will Bogan, primarily a 3 point threat didn't score much doing other things but he could shoot 3s. Matt Kenney, he was either on or off, he could get very sloppy with the ball so pressure him and he'll likely turn it over.  Our reserves couldn't shoot real well that season, LVD found his stroke senior year and was phenomenal but junior version of LVD wasn't anything special, this was also the year of #No3sBobby, and Jordan Coleman was kinda sorta there.

The 2015 version is much more athletic and much better defensively. The 13 team was one of the best 3 point shooting teams in the country. This season we were mediocre, Alec was are main threat from beyond the arc and he had an amazing year shooting near 50% from outside, he could also post up when the 3s weren't falling which created matchup nightmares offensively. Both Darien and Tevonn were able to hit enough 3s to keep the defense honest which opened up lanes to the basket. Our 2 PGs were much better shooters that Erik was, Erik I thought did a great job running the offense and defensively was I would say was about equal at PG, perhaps a slight edge to EVN.

To me what separates the two teams is the ability to get to the rim and score. Tevonn, Darien, EVN could all cut to the basket to score while still being able to hit outside shots. They weren't great shooters but good enough. Our reserves are much stronger as well. Jubril and #BobbyNo3s are similar both have a poor outside shot but if left open will take that shot, Jubril I think was a bit more reluctant to take the shot than Bobby. LVD vs KC/EVN the current duo is better than LVD. Skara is significantly better than Coleman was.

Not saying I expect to win a game or two in the tournament but this team is much more likely to. The 2013 team was much more of a stereotypical mid-major program; this team isn't. If the 3s weren't falling for the 13 team then we were in big trouble, while this year we can do it in a variety of ways. This team is much more capable of making a run in the tournament.
Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: vu84v2 on March 13, 2015, 10:33:04 AM
Whatif sports site does simulated games between teams based on stats. They do not have 2014-2015 in the site yet. I ran the 2012-2013 team against the 2001-2002 team (next best Valpo team available) with the lineups adjusted to account for likely playing time (i.e. no minutes for Falu). In three games, 2001-2002 won all three times. Barton and Broekhoff always had similar games, but Stovall or Ortiz would always come up with the difference making performances.
Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: a3uge on March 13, 2015, 10:34:22 AM
Hopefully the 2015 team is a much better NCAA tourney team than the 2013 team was. Only two players showed up for that game - Buggs and Boggs. Rowdy and KVW were terrible that game. Rowdy shot worse than Alec did last game and was missing shots by a mile. I'll give KVW a bit of a pass - Nix and Payne are abnormal physical specimens.

The 2012 loss kind of stung a bit more after that game. We could have gained some legitimate postseason experience that year, and maybe could have played a bit more loose.
Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: classof2014 on March 13, 2015, 11:04:21 AM
That team lived by the 3 and died by the 3.

That day they died by the 3. If I recall we had plenty of open looks but they weren't falling. My guess is that Izzo adjusted the gameplan to pack it in, don't recall the defense Michigan St played it's only a guess. Due to that we were missing a ton of outside shots. We were only 7-25 from outside and 19-54 for the game, so nearly 50% of our shots were 3s, and 3 of the 3s were made by Boggs.

My guess is that Izzo basically told his team if they keep missing we'll let them keep shooting.

Sadly, that game was probably their worst performance of the year.
Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: atkins on March 13, 2015, 01:40:27 PM
This thread is fun.  Interesting to see the analyses of the various players' strengths and weaknesses.  We were abysmal against Michigan State and looked like a team of middle schoolers against a high school varsity team.  Ryan had a terrible game (which was unusual for Ryan), but Alec has similarly looked lost during some big games against good teams this year.  Of course, Alec is only a sophomore, so he cannot be expected to be on all of the time.  I do think that Ryan is the more-complete basketball player, but Alec has many weapons, as well. 

My only hope is that we do not have to play a game against any large school with one of the fifty states in its name.  In that event, we might as well warm up the bus before halftime. 
Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: a3uge on March 13, 2015, 02:15:04 PM
Quote from: atkins on March 13, 2015, 01:40:27 PM
My only hope is that we do not have to play a game against any large school with one of the fifty states in its name.  In that event, we might as well warm up the bus before halftime.

(https://gatsiesheikar.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/headdesk.png)
Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: Kyle321n on March 13, 2015, 02:20:56 PM
Quote from: a3uge on March 13, 2015, 02:15:04 PM
Quote from: atkins on March 13, 2015, 01:40:27 PM
My only hope is that we do not have to play a game against any large school with one of the fifty states in its name.  In that event, we might as well warm up the bus before halftime.

(https://gatsiesheikar.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/headdesk.png)

I hope we don't play a school who has one of the 50 state capitals in it's name. Do you know how good Carson City Community College is? And don't underrate Juneau Area College of Knifework and Associate  Silver Smiths.
Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: Valpower on March 13, 2015, 02:40:55 PM
Quote from: classof2014 on March 13, 2015, 11:04:21 AM
That team lived by the 3 and died by the 3.

That day they died by the 3. If I recall we had plenty of open looks but they weren't falling. My guess is that Izzo adjusted the gameplan to pack it in, don't recall the defense Michigan St played it's only a guess. Due to that we were missing a ton of outside shots. We were only 7-25 from outside and 19-54 for the game, so nearly 50% of our shots were 3s, and 3 of the 3s were made by Boggs.

My guess is that Izzo basically told his team if they keep missing we'll let them keep shooting.

Sadly, that game was probably their worst performance of the year.
Letting a mid-major shoot from outside, even the best ones, has got to be a pretty standard we-dare-you strategy from majors.  It's a pretty good gamble that mid-majors will be dealing with the most jitters and, thus, will not shoot well initially.  Now, if they do hit those early ones, they've got a good chance of turning the tables later in the game.  Whereas the tourney environment may not be as daunting to major programs, pesky mid-majors staying close in the waning minutes of the game must be throat-tightening.
Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: covufan on March 13, 2015, 03:03:14 PM
Quote from: a3uge on March 13, 2015, 02:15:04 PM
Quote from: atkins on March 13, 2015, 01:40:27 PM
My only hope is that we do not have to play a game against any large school with one of the fifty states in its name.  In that event, we might as well warm up the bus before halftime.

(https://gatsiesheikar.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/headdesk.png)
This is one season where this statement is just not true.  From the bracketmatrix.com site, I wouldn't want these five (but we shouldn't get them):

1 Kentucky
1 Virginia
2 Wisconsin
2 Arizona
2 Kansas

I think we can compete, but would rather not play these teams:

3 Maryland
3 Iowa State
3 Oklahoma
4 North Carolina

I think we can upset these teams:

4 Northern Iowa
5 West Virginia
5 Utah
6 Arkansas

I'm ready for these teams, whenever we might play them in the tournament:

7 Michigan State
7 Virginia Commonwealth
7 Iowa
8 Ohio State
8 Oregon
9 North Carolina State
9 LSU
10 Colorado State
10 Georgia
10 Oklahoma State
11 Texas
11 Mississippi  ** I think we'd get much publicity if we were to play Ole Miss in the second round
12 Indiana

Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: a3uge on March 13, 2015, 03:14:20 PM
Quote from: Valpower on March 13, 2015, 02:40:55 PM
Quote from: classof2014 on March 13, 2015, 11:04:21 AM
That team lived by the 3 and died by the 3.

That day they died by the 3. If I recall we had plenty of open looks but they weren't falling. My guess is that Izzo adjusted the gameplan to pack it in, don't recall the defense Michigan St played it's only a guess. Due to that we were missing a ton of outside shots. We were only 7-25 from outside and 19-54 for the game, so nearly 50% of our shots were 3s, and 3 of the 3s were made by Boggs.

My guess is that Izzo basically told his team if they keep missing we'll let them keep shooting.

Sadly, that game was probably their worst performance of the year.
Letting a mid-major shoot from outside, even the best ones, has got to be a pretty standard we-dare-you strategy from majors.  It's a pretty good gamble that mid-majors will be dealing with the most jitters and, thus, will not shoot well initially.  Now, if they do hit those early ones, they've got a good chance of turning the tables later in the game.  Whereas the tourney environment may not be as daunting to major programs, pesky mid-majors staying close in the waning minutes of the game must be throat-tightening.

On the flip side, upsets happen. All the time. Irrationality. Like Jabari Parker and Duke getting knocked off by MERCER. In that game, Mercer made just 5 threes. Lower seeds have 0 pressure to win, and higher profile teams have added pressure to not suffer an embarrassing loss. Having watched at least 20 minutes of every single Thurs-Friday tournament game for the past 3 years, I can tell you that higher profile teams are just as likely to play tight, if not tighter in the first half before stepping on the gas pedal in the second half. It happens to even the 1 seeds every so often, and often to the 2 seeds. Talent most often wins out, but I don't think nerves are exclusive to mid majors. With that said, there are certain teams that just don't get upset in the early rounds like Michigan State.
Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: wh on March 13, 2015, 03:47:05 PM
Quote from: covufan on March 13, 2015, 03:03:14 PM
I'm ready for these teams, whenever we might play them in the tournament:

7 Michigan State
7 Virginia Commonwealth
7 Iowa
8 Ohio State
8 Oregon
9 North Carolina State
9 LSU
10 Colorado State
10 Georgia
10 Oklahoma State
11 Texas
11 Mississippi  ** I think we'd get much publicity if we were to play Ole Miss in the second round
12 Indiana

No Butler on your "I'm ready for these teams" list?


Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: Kyle321n on March 13, 2015, 03:52:05 PM
Quote from: wh on March 13, 2015, 03:47:05 PM

No Butler on your "I'm ready for these teams" list?


I wasn't a geography major, but I don't know the state of Butler. Is that one of those western ones out by the Dakotas?
Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: wh on March 13, 2015, 03:58:08 PM
Quote from: Kyle321n on March 13, 2015, 03:52:05 PM
Quote from: wh on March 13, 2015, 03:47:05 PM

No Butler on your "I'm ready for these teams" list?


I wasn't a geography major, but I don't know the state of Butler. Is that one of those western ones out by the Dakotas?

Butler is one of the 7 extra states that Obama visited:

Obama Claims He's Visited 57 States (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpGH02DtIws#)

Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: covufan on March 13, 2015, 04:48:55 PM
Quote from: wh on March 13, 2015, 03:58:08 PM
Quote from: Kyle321n on March 13, 2015, 03:52:05 PM
Quote from: wh on March 13, 2015, 03:47:05 PM

No Butler on your "I'm ready for these teams" list?


I wasn't a geography major, but I don't know the state of Butler. Is that one of those western ones out by the Dakotas?

Butler is one of the 7 extra states that Obama visited:

Obama Claims He's Visited 57 States (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpGH02DtIws#)


Wow!  That is impressive.  Visiting 57 states!  I'm sure he meant to say 47, but still??!?  I remember when Bush the elder was campaigning on Labor Day (can't remember if it was '88 or '92), and said "September 7th, a day that will live in infamy".  I'm sure glad most of my mistakes were not caught on camera and loaded on YouTube!

I'm thinking that since Butler is neither a state nor a city, I'm going with these 7 states (from the projected NCAA Tournament field):

Louisville  (KY, Papa John's State)
Wichita State (KS, State of Confusion)
Georgetown (DC, Colonial State)
Southern Methodist (TX, a 'Southern' state, right?)
Providence (RI, Divine State)
San Diego State (CA, Dude State)
Boise State (ID, Smurf State)
Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: justducky on March 13, 2015, 04:52:13 PM
So if Butler St, Baylor St, Louisville St, and Providence St actually existed could we compete with any of them?   ???
Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: wh on March 13, 2015, 04:57:13 PM
Quote from: covufan on March 13, 2015, 04:48:55 PM
Wow!  That is impressive.  Visiting 57 states!  I'm sure he meant to say 47...

Of course he did, but 47 would not have provided any cover for my egregious error!  ;)




Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: covufan on March 13, 2015, 05:11:27 PM
Quote from: wh on March 13, 2015, 04:57:13 PMOf course he did, but 47 would not have provided any cover for my aggregous error! 
And here I thought you were posting to set up the use of the '57 States' video!
Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: FWalum on March 13, 2015, 05:29:16 PM
Quote from: covufan on March 13, 2015, 03:03:14 PMThis is one season where this statement is just not true.  From the bracketmatrix.com site, I wouldn't want these five (but we shouldn't get them):

1 Kentucky
1 Virginia
2 Wisconsin
2 Arizona
2 Kansas

I think we can compete, but would rather not play these teams:

3 Maryland
3 Iowa State
3 Oklahoma
4 North Carolina

7 Michigan State
7 Iowa
8 Ohio State
9 North Carolina State
9 LSU

I think we can upset these teams:

4 Northern Iowa
5 West Virginia
5 Utah
6 Arkansas
6 Butler

I'm ready for these teams, whenever we might play them in the tournament:

7 Virginia Commonwealth
8 Oregon
10 Colorado State
10 Georgia
10 Oklahoma State
11 Texas
11 Mississippi  ** I think we'd get much publicity if we were to play Ole Miss in the second round
12 Indiana I think IU is a head case waiting to happen
Unfortunately for us this is a real case of confidence.  I don't buy that we should be playing loose because we don't have anything to lose.  For some reason we feel a ton of pressure to beat power conference teams and rarely seem to play to our potential. Do we feel pressure to recreate the old magic?  I don't know but it certainly seems to be the case.
Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: valpopal on March 17, 2015, 01:13:27 AM

Oren plays a simulated game between 2013 and 2015 teams. Final Score   2015: 62    2013: 58

http://www.nwitimes.com/blogs/sports/valparaiso-university/simulating-the-crusaders-vs/article_31e4292a-cc5c-11e4-aae9-9f9da0196f94.html (http://www.nwitimes.com/blogs/sports/valparaiso-university/simulating-the-crusaders-vs/article_31e4292a-cc5c-11e4-aae9-9f9da0196f94.html)


(http://i59.tinypic.com/349batc.jpg)
Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: LaPorteAveApostle on March 17, 2015, 07:05:30 AM
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on March 12, 2015, 12:45:19 PMI sense a Paul blogpost about that game simulator between the two teams in our future.
(https://31.media.tumblr.com/2e5cb3526991dd6be4b3795c69ad069b/tumblr_inline_n5jykjF7P81r5fgj8.gif)
Title: Re: 2013 vs. 2015
Post by: historyman on March 17, 2015, 08:22:37 AM
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on March 17, 2015, 07:05:30 AM
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on March 12, 2015, 12:45:19 PMI sense a Paul blogpost about that game simulator between the two teams in our future.
(https://31.media.tumblr.com/2e5cb3526991dd6be4b3795c69ad069b/tumblr_inline_n5jykjF7P81r5fgj8.gif)

You had the '15 team also? Me too!