I did this two years ago and it seemed to generate a fair amount of discussion. I will update daily (I'll try, anyways).
Notes:
- RPI numbers are direct from NCAA website
- RPI obviously is not the only tool
- We want as many upsets as possible...lots of GREEN!
- GREEN means a team has a worse RPI than Valpo (this is good)
- RED means a team has a better RPI than Valpo (this is bad)
- I will fill in details as they become available (basically, when conference tournament brackets are set)
- "Top Remaining Seed" just means conference tournament seed, not RPI ranking
- As Auto-Bids are given out, chart will be sorted by Auto-Bid RPI. Until then, sorted by date
(http://i58.tinypic.com/11s13io.jpg)
I think it is pretty simple. The HL needs either GB or Valpo to win the tournament to get a good seed. Valpo and GB also need to face off in the championship game for the RPI boost. Hats off to Oakland and CSU, but either of them winning will result in a 15 seed and a low possibility of success.
The more teams below that lose their conference tournament, the better chance at a favorable seed for Valpo/GB.
Stephen F. Austin
Murray State
Wofford
Buffalo or Central Michigan
Iona
Harvard (better if Yale wins the regular season)
Lousiana Tech or Old Dominion
UC Davis
Quote from: SanityLost17 on March 05, 2015, 10:48:08 AMHarvard (better if Yale wins the regular season)
Even better if they both lose out! But, yeah, even at the same record and same RPI, I'd take Yale over Harvard.
It seems like a #13 seed is the far most likely scenario. Iona and Wofford (and maybe Murray State) losing in the conference tournaments seem to be the only really likely cass that would push Valpo up.
Regardless, need to win Saturday and Tuesday to make it all possible.
Quote from: agibson on March 05, 2015, 11:55:58 AM
Quote from: SanityLost17 on March 05, 2015, 10:48:08 AMHarvard (better if Yale wins the regular season)
Even better if they both lose out! But, yeah, even at the same record and same RPI, I'd take Yale over Harvard.
They play each other Friday night.
Quote from: vu84v2 on March 05, 2015, 03:28:47 PM
It seems like a #13 seed is the far most likely scenario. Iona and Wofford (and maybe Murray State) losing in the conference tournaments seem to be the only really likely cass that would push Valpo up.
Regardless, need to win Saturday and Tuesday to make it all possible.
It looks like our seeding range is from the worst 12 to the worst 13 if we win out. After that it becomes a question of best available matchup for the team. I hope they don't try to do us another favor (keeping us close to home) like they did with Michigan St. Sometimes a little travel can be beneficial to the spirit. ;)
If we lose (and all these teams can beat us) we now have the healthy horses for a nice NIT run. For those that don't remember we entered the 2012 NIT with part of the team coming down with, part of the team suffering from, and the rest of the team recovering from a nasty strain of the flu (I think a couple didn't even make the road trip). I would think after that a flu shot might now be team policy. ???
Thanks for this; could it also be noted if there are other conference teams behind the red that are also red or close to it?
That is, let's say Wichita State loses, which fine, they'll at-large anyway, but to a team that's (say) 53. In effect, that pushes us down a spot rather than (say) a team at 135 winning it.
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on March 05, 2015, 08:37:05 PMThat is, let's say Wichita State loses, which fine, they'll at-large anyway, but to a team that's (say) 53. In effect, that pushes us down a spot rather than (say) a team at 135 winning it.
Last I checked WSU and UNI were both top 15 for RPI and the next MVC team was Ill St. in the mid 70's, so not likely they could jump Valpo even with the Arch Madness Championship (I know you were talking more about the concept, not only that particular example, just thought I'd clear up one I know)
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on March 05, 2015, 08:37:05 PMThanks for this; could it also be noted if there are other conference teams behind the red that are also red or close to it?
It could be, but I'm going to leave it as is, so its nice and clean. If a #1 seed loses, I'll change it to the #2 team or #3 team or whatever.
No #1 seeds lost last night, and no movement of RPI, so no update today. Things should start changing soon, however, with tournaments ramping up and the Harvard/Yale game giving one of them a one-game lead with one to play in the Ivy.
Quote from: mvandersee on March 05, 2015, 10:16:37 PMthe next MVC team was Ill St. in the mid 70's, so not likely they could jump Valpo even with the Arch Madness Championship
If Illinois State wins through against the top seeds, RPI Wizard has them at 48. So, it could be real close.
Quote from: ValpoHoops on March 05, 2015, 03:31:16 PMThey play each other Friday night.
Which is not going to help our RPI case... At least they play 200+ RPI games in their finales.
So, actually, it looks like if Yale wins out, and we beat CSU and GB (not sure if Detroit or Oakland would do it - may well _not_), we'd beat Yale by ~10 places in RPI. Go Yale!
Funny league schedule they have, Friday-Saturday games all season. Maybe good for academics. I wonder how the travel is? They're _reasonably_ compact, but...
Quote from: agibson on March 06, 2015, 07:27:53 AM
Quote from: ValpoHoops on March 05, 2015, 03:31:16 PMThey play each other Friday night.
Funny league schedule they have, Friday-Saturday games all season. Maybe good for academics. I wonder how the travel is? They're _reasonably_ compact, but...
Yeah, the Ivy has had the weekend-only league format for as long as I can remember. And you're right, they've clearly stated that it's to reduce mid week travel and missed classes. Their academics-first policies extend to most of the major sports, e.g., soccer only plays 14 games while the rest of the NCAA plays 18; Football is precluded from the FCS playoffs, etc. They will, however play midweek games against local colleges -- like maybe a Harvard - BU basketball game on a Wednesday night, but not overnight travel. Even Hockey doesn't travel mid-week except locally.
Quote from: ValpoHoops on March 05, 2015, 10:08:02 AMI did this two years ago
you did everything else 2 years ago...where've you been since?!?
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on March 06, 2015, 06:58:39 PM
Quote from: ValpoHoops on March 05, 2015, 10:08:02 AMI did this two years ago
you did everything else 2 years ago...where've you been since?!?
I've been around...reading and not posting. I haven't missed a home game in three years.
Quote from: ValpoHoops on March 06, 2015, 07:06:56 PM
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on March 06, 2015, 06:58:39 PM
Quote from: ValpoHoops on March 05, 2015, 10:08:02 AMI did this two years ago
you did everything else 2 years ago...where've you been since?!?
I've been around...reading and not posting. I haven't missed a home game in three years.
Me too! signed in as a guest but this year felt like I should make a few comments
OK, so the NCAA is a little slower in updating their RPI page than I expected, so the RPI numbers are a day old, but the seeding is correct. This will all take care of itself in the end.
As coaches would say...we've got our own business to take care of before any of that matters. Fortunately, we are fans and we don't have to listen!
The first two bids COULD be handed out tonight. The Ohio Valley (Murray State escaped last night...down 11 with under 7:00 to play) will for sure, and Yale clinches the Ivy with a win or a Harvard loss. If Yale were to lose tonight and Harvard win, they would have a one-game playoff (the Ivy League does not use tiebreakers...they play for it).
There should also be a lot of movement the next couple of days. A ton of games, across the board from the small conferences to the majors.
(http://i60.tinypic.com/20hahon.jpg)
Quote from: vu84v2 on March 05, 2015, 03:28:47 PM
It seems like a #13 seed is the far most likely scenario.
Against a #4 seeded Baylor team, perhaps? That would be fun, despite automatically eliminating a rooting interest from game 1...
First ticket punched last night with Belmont. Three more today...
Team to root for today: Illinois State (vs. Northern Iowa), Monmouth (vs. Iona), Western Carolina (vs. Wofford)
To a lesser extent: Hofstra (vs. William & Mary), Northeastern (vs. UNC-Wilmington)
Once again, RPI data is a day behind (maybe I should sleep in before doing this...), but you'll get the idea.
(http://i60.tinypic.com/2i0sxhw.jpg)
Illinois State would be around same RPI with 2 top 25 wins. Probably not getting seeded lower than a 12.
I think Belmont should be green?
I like tables and graphs, nice work!
Quote from: HC on March 08, 2015, 08:57:44 AM
I think Belmont should be green?
I like tables and graphs, nice work!
You would be correct. With the time change, I didn't get much sleep last night :'(
Am I the last one to see the ESPN March Madness promo spot? Three buzzer beaters in Tournament time... Broeckhoff's "Shot 2.0" is the middle one! and I see the game is getting "Scroll Mentions" on ESPN already.
Quote from: ValpoHoops on March 08, 2015, 07:49:44 AMMonmouth (vs. Iona)
I notice Iona did lose at Monmouth. Early in the season, by three, in a shootout. On their way to a 17-3 conference record (all their losses have been on the road).
Quote from: ValpoHoops on March 08, 2015, 07:49:44 AM
First ticket punched last night with Belmont. Three more today...
Team to root for today: Illinois State (vs. Northern Iowa), Monmouth (vs. Iona), Western Carolina (vs. Wofford)
To a lesser extent: Hofstra (vs. William & Mary), Northeastern (vs. UNC-Wilmington)
Once again, RPI data is a day behind (maybe I should sleep in before doing this...), but you'll get the idea.
(http://i60.tinypic.com/2i0sxhw.jpg)
Palm updates daily and the numbers are rarely different from the NCAA official RPI, which often is a day behind. Valpo's RPI increased (bettered) from 67 to 59 after last night's victory:
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/nitty-gritty-report (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/nitty-gritty-report)
Valpo's 59 RPI confirmed by official NCAA RPI:
http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-rpi (http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-rpi)
The free advertising never stops for Valpo, as I noticed that as well! We will remain in front of viewers for decades to come with both Bryce and Broekhoff, so hopefully we can get another tournament highlight in the near future!
I'm not sure who to root for in the CUSA. Old Dominion seems to be a bubble team. If we think they'll get in _anyway_, I guess we want them to win the tournament? Or, actually, I guess we'd still prefer some cellar-dweller to win, to fill up the bottom of the bracket.
If we think they _won't_ get in as an at-large, I guess we want them to lose early? Because if they won the conference they'd have a better seed than us.
Not at all clear that UTEP would be a safe win, and LA Tech is likely _not_ a safe win. UAB seems OK...
I guess, to be safe, we root for someone in the 4-12 seeds to pull off a couple of upsets?
In the Southland, anybody but SFA seems probably OK.
There are three groups of teams: locks, bubble and auto-bid only.
We fall into the third group and we make up the bottom of the bracket. We want this group to be as large and as "bad" as possible. If a team is a bubble team and they lose, they don't affect our seed in any way...they were ahead of us to begin with. They may bump another team from the tournament.
Just root for the worst team to win each game and you'll be on the right track.
Quote from: ValpoHoops on March 08, 2015, 02:33:12 PMJust root for the worst team to win each game and you'll be on the right track.
Right, that'll work. But, it's a little impractical. The last seed's not going to win the conference tournament. It's more fun to work on the margins - who's the likeliest winner that we can reasonably safely root for?
For my own benefit/amusement, here's my crack at a cheering guide.
Seems like our best hopes are probably with Manhattan, and with Yale, and maybe with Sam Houston or someone over SFA.
Root for Furman over Wofford (likely 12 seed), Monday 6 PM central.
Root for Manhattan over Iona (very plausible 12 seed), Monday 8 PM central.
CUSA tournament starts Wednesday, with everybody playing Thursday, Friday, Saturday. Root for carnage basically. Maybe UAB? (Louisiana Tech's a plausible 12 seed; Old Dominion's on the edge of the bubble; even UTEP could compete with us for seeding if they win the tournament.)
Southland tournament starts Wednesday, but SFA plays Friday and Saturday. Root for Stephen F. Austin (likely 12 seed) to lose.
Root for Yale over Harvard (plausible 12 seed - though Yale _might_ not be much better for us), Saturday March 14 at the Palestra.
Quote from: agibson on March 09, 2015, 08:09:56 AM
For my own benefit/amusement, here's my crack at a cheering guide.
Seems like our best hopes are probably with Manhattan, and with Yale, and maybe with Sam Houston or someone over SFA.
Root for Furman over Wofford (likely 12 seed), Monday 6 PM central.
Root for Manhattan over Iona (very plausible 12 seed), Monday 8 PM central.
CUSA tournament starts Wednesday, with everybody playing Thursday, Friday, Saturday. Root for carnage basically. Maybe UAB? (Louisiana Tech's a plausible 12 seed; Old Dominion's on the edge of the bubble; even UTEP could compete with us for seeding if they win the tournament.)
Southland tournament starts Wednesday, but SFA plays Friday and Saturday. Root for Stephen F. Austin (likely 12 seed) to lose.
Root for Yale over Harvard (plausible 12 seed - though Yale _might_ not be much better for us), Saturday March 14 at the Palestra.
Good stuff, but you should've saved the games past Tuesday until after tomorrow's game :p
Quote from: a3uge on March 09, 2015, 08:20:50 AMGood stuff, but you should've saved the games past Tuesday until after tomorrow's game :p
We do indeed have a little more riding on that one!
Three clinched bids yesterday with North Florida, Coastal Carolina and Northern Iowa.
Three more tickets punched today. The Colonial shouldn't matter much, but definitely root for Manhattan in the MAAC (vs. Iona) and Furman in the SoCon (vs. Wofford).
In some semi-final games, root for Portland (vs. BYU) and Pepperdine (vs. Gonzaga) in the WCC (unlikely, but still a rooting interest).
For Tuesday...screw the rest, GO VALPO!
Waited today until NCAA RPI updated. Just sticking with this because its the "official" one.
(http://i58.tinypic.com/eqcaxz.jpg)
Quote from: agibson on March 09, 2015, 08:09:56 AM
For my own benefit/amusement, here's my crack at a cheering guide.
Seems like our best hopes are probably with Manhattan, and with Yale, and maybe with Sam Houston or someone over SFA.
Root for Furman over Wofford (likely 12 seed), Monday 6 PM central.
Root for Manhattan over Iona (very plausible 12 seed), Monday 8 PM central.
Furman's playing them close, at least. 2 point game with 10 minutes to play.
Quote from: agibson on March 09, 2015, 07:25:51 PM
Quote from: agibson on March 09, 2015, 08:09:56 AM
For my own benefit/amusement, here's my crack at a cheering guide.
Seems like our best hopes are probably with Manhattan, and with Yale, and maybe with Sam Houston or someone over SFA.
Root for Furman over Wofford (likely 12 seed), Monday 6 PM central.
Root for Manhattan over Iona (very plausible 12 seed), Monday 8 PM central.
Furman's playing them close, at least. 2 point game with 10 minutes to play.
Woffords going to lose by 30 in the tournament. Man.
Quote from: agibson on March 09, 2015, 07:25:51 PMFurman's playing them close, at least. 2 point game with 10 minutes to play.
Long three (not far past half-court) at the buzzer to tie. Short. Still, not bad for RPI 297 or whatever they were. Wofford likely to take a 12 seed - but maybe this win will hurt their RPI a little.
Their RPI went from 48 to 50 (Warren Nolan).
Manhattan by 10 with five minutes to play in the first half. Looks like a double technical coming on some chippiness. Maybe no ejections.
Iona's star nearly ejected? Manhattan by 11.
Both Iona and Manhattan look pretty decent. Much better than Wofford. Although it probably appears that way since neither team is playing a lick of defense.
Quote from: a3uge on March 09, 2015, 09:20:58 PM
Both Iona and Manhattan look pretty decent. Much better than Wofford. Although it probably appears that way since neither team is playing a lick of defense.
You think if you're scoring 80+ a game, with two players at 20+, you have time or energy left for defense?
Manhattan lead back to 7. Er, 5. Er, 2. Yeah, Iona can score in a hurry.
Iona's loss is a big one. They were a definite 12. If either La Tech or Stephen F. Austin don't get through, and most importantly the Crusaders win, then Valpo will be a 12 seed.
Quote from: chef on March 09, 2015, 10:33:54 PM
Iona's loss is a big one. They were a definite 12. If either La Tech or Stephen F. Austin don't get through, and most importantly the Crusaders win, then Valpo should be a 12 seed, however, we all know the selection committee could flex us geographically to do us a 'favor' and give us a 13 seed against Louisville.
FIFY
Quote from: wh on March 09, 2015, 08:15:36 PMTheir RPI went from 48 to 50 (Warren Nolan).
Quote from: agibson on March 09, 2015, 07:59:47 PMbut maybe this win will hurt their RPI a little.
very little!
Quote from: chef on March 09, 2015, 10:33:54 PM
Iona's loss is a big one. They were a definite 12. If either La Tech or Stephen F. Austin don't get through, and most importantly the Crusaders win, then Valpo will be a 12 seed.
Iona and Murray State did us favors, for sure. (Or, I guess we should say, Belmont and Manhattan!).
Presumably we're in the conversation now for a 12 seed, but it still feels like we need a lot of love to make it any kind of a sure thing: Harvard/Yale, SFA, maybe CUSA carnage.
Iona and Murray State are, predictably, resurfacing in bubble conversations. But, they're no kind of conventional at-large candidate. Not even conventional mid-major at-large candidates.
Most importantly, we've got to win tonight! Go Valpo!
Well, here we go...only one game with a strong rooting interest tonight, and I think most of us will be there...
Three tickets punched last night. The Horizon Champ nearly caught a big break with Furman, but alas, Wofford hung on. Manhattan did knock off Iona, so that will help the HL team, and Northeastern kept William & Mary (one of five "original" D1 teams to never go dancing - there were 160 - out of the NCAA Tournament).
[The others are Army, The Citadel, Northwestern and St. Francis (NY). St. Francis has the opportunity to get themselves off of that list tonight.]
NCAA must only update when there are "major" conferences playing games, so these numbers are a day old...most should be close.
(http://i61.tinypic.com/bfjpqx.jpg)
So currently, if the #1s win out, there are 17 teams who have to be seeded below us. There's no excuse for any green team, outside of the Harvard/Yale, winner to be higher than the Horizon League winner.
As you know there are four 13 seeds, four 14, four 15 seeds, and six 16 seeds. We could really use:
1. A big bump from winning tonight, which should happen considering the loser will be a top 75 team.
2. Gonzaga to win. They play BYU who might be a bubble team, but if the win they will have a seed ahead of us for sure at an RPI of 43. Gonzaga is already in, let's keep them in.
3. LA Tech and UC-Davis to lose.
I can see them putting the Ivy League darling in a 12 seed so they have the upset potential and the story of the "Ivy Playoff"
Quote from: Kyle321n on March 10, 2015, 01:23:46 PM2. Gonzaga to win. They play BYU who might be a bubble team, but if the win they will have a seed ahead of us for sure at an RPI of 43. Gonzaga is already in, let's keep them in.
This game won't matter. Either Gonzaga wins and BYU falls into the cesspool or bubble teams, or BYU wins and knocks a bubble team out of the tournament. The only games that matter are ones that could put a team behind us.
Lunardi still has us a #13 v Baylor in the East Jacksonville
so, of the 4 bids open tonight... #1 seeds took two of them... VALPO :) and Gonzaga. North Dakota State #117 takes the Summit 57-56... and Robert Morris #187 takes out St. Francis 66-63... (those are the rpiratings.com values). Valpo was a 59 as of Sunday.
With both Murray St and Iona losing I think we get a 12, some more help would be nice but we've done our job!
Quote from: ValpoHoops on March 10, 2015, 01:56:47 PMThis game won't matter. Either Gonzaga wins and BYU falls into the cesspool or bubble teams, or BYU wins and knocks a bubble team out of the tournament. The only games that matter are ones that could put a team behind us.
It took me a couple of minutes to convince myself of this this morning, but I'm with you. All that matters for us is filling up the bottom. We want weak teams to get in the tournament by winning upset auto-bids and floating us up. Noting else matters.
Quote from: agibson on March 09, 2015, 08:09:56 AMCUSA tournament starts Wednesday, with everybody playing Thursday, Friday, Saturday. Root for carnage basically. Maybe UAB? (Louisiana Tech's a plausible 12 seed; Old Dominion's on the edge of the bubble; even UTEP could compete with us for seeding if they win the tournament.)
Southland tournament starts Wednesday, but SFA plays Friday and Saturday. Root for Stephen F. Austin (likely 12 seed) to lose.
Root for Yale over Harvard (plausible 12 seed - though Yale _might_ not be much better for us), Saturday March 14 at the Palestra.
Man. -Nobody- plays tomorrow, and SFA not until Friday?
Quote from: talksalot on March 10, 2015, 10:41:08 PMand Robert Morris #187 takes out St. Francis 66-63
That was an interesting finish to the Robert Morris/St Francis game. St Francis was down 3 with seconds remaining and threw up a three to try and tie the game. The shooter was fouled on the three point attempt. The shooter then proceeded to miss all 3 FT attempts (the last FT on purpose) to give the game to Robert Morris. RMU got fouled and missed their FT attempt and gave SF-NY a desperation 3/4 court shot that bounced off the back of the rim.
Do you believe that player will be thinking of improving his FT % over the summer?
If he makes those FTs St Francis could have gone to OT with a chance of taking his team to their first NCAA tournament ever.
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:12458044 (http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:12458044)
Valpo RPI:
From 59
To 53 after win last night.
Sorry I gotta root for SFA. They have a great, well coached team, and besides my wife went there! I think SFA will provide some damage in the tournament.
Using the Sagarin's... and a pure "Top 4 are #1... 5-8 are #2...etc) possible opponents and their Record and ranking...
9 Utah 22 7
10 North Carolina 21 10
11 Iowa State 22 8
12 Oklahoma 21 9
13 Notre Dame 26 5
14 Baylor 22 8
15 Louisville 24 7
16 Ohio State 22 9
17 Wichita State 27 4
18 West Virginia 23 8
19 Butler 22 9
20 Michigan State 21 10
21 Texas 19 12
22 Georgetown 20 9
23 Iowa 21 10
a few interesting match-ups:
Notre Dame in Columbus
Oklahoma in Omaha
Texas in Louisville
Ohio State in Louisville
West Virginia ...out west...
I would love for Valpo to end up in Omaha with Kansas (of course, not playing Kansas). Would have to make the trip for that. I do not see Valpo being in Omaha, however, since Kansas and Wisconsin seem to be locks to go there. Neither of those teams will end up with a 12 or 13 seed in the same location.
Definitely some likelihood of drawing a Big 12 team, though it will not be Texas who will be lucky to make the play-in game. All would be tough matchups, but most could present the chance for a win.
-West Virginia is all about pressing defense and rebounding - they are the Big 12 equivalent of Cleveland State. They are the most uncomfortable team in the Big 12 to play against and watch...by far.
-Iowa State can be great if they hit their threes. They would be a team to give Kentucky some potential problems. Peters vs. Niang would be a great matchup as would Carter vs. Morris. Lots of firepower on Iowa State, but they can struggle with teams making a strong defensive effort.
-Baylor. This matchup would get the national storyline with Drew vs. Drew. Scott has done a tremendous job with this team. Gathers is an absolute beast inside and Valpo would have no one to matchup with him, but they also play good defense and have really good guards that can shoot and drive.
-Oklahoma may be the best overall team of this group, but oddly could be a better matchup for Valpo. If you can defend the two guards all game (Hield and Cousins), they don't have that great of an offensive game. Krueger is also a very good coach, but an Oklahoma - Valpo game would have the right tempo for Valpo and Valpo would not face a style or physical mismatch that could cause real problems.
Other teams that I think could be better matchups for Valpo: Butler, Georgetown, Wichita State. I do not think that Valpo would matchup well with North Carolina (too many athletes) or Notre Dame (too good offensive efficiency). Louisville seems like it could be a good matchup due to their problems, but still lots of talent and experience. And I think that Michigan State would shut down most of Valpo's options on offense and win like last time.
No matter who we play we'll be the underdogs... obviously. Valpo's chances at winning a game or two is much higher than 2 years ago. I think we're a 12 but at worst a 13. I agree teams like Iowa St, Oklahoma, and West Virginia would be good draws for us, there's a possibility of an upset there.
To me though Butler would be our best draw. Not just because it'd be a great rivalry game but they're the worst of the group, in my opinion. They aren't overly athletic and we match up well with them. If we get Butler I give our chances of winning around 35-40% while the worst draw to me would be North Carolina 10-15% chance of winning.
Well, turns out I'm not a curse this year.
Four tickets punched last night, none of which should have a significant impact on our seeding.
Tonight, one more bid - from the Patriot League - that should have little effect on our spot. After this, nothing new until Saturday.
Teams to root against in conference tournaments:
MAC: Buffalo (30), Central Michigan (75), Toledo (77)
C-USA: Old Dominion (37), Louisiana Tech (52), UTEP (73)
Big West: UC-Davis (64)
Southland: Stephen F. Austin (44)
Mountain West: Colorado State (26), San Diego State (28), Boise State (40)
Sun Belt: Georgia State (70)
And, when in doubt, cheer for the team in the dark jersey.
Based on strictly RPI, if all tournaments ended with the highest SEEDED team (not necessarily the highest RPI team) winning, we would be the "best" 13 seed.
(http://i58.tinypic.com/r1ing1.jpg)
Quote from: ValpoHoops on March 11, 2015, 10:45:22 AMMAC: Buffalo (30), Central Michigan (75), Toledo (77)
Man, I forgot all about Buffalo. And, now as I look more carefully, the whole MAC sort of smells like trouble! Four top-100 teams! (Including Kent State.)
Buffalo's RPI is inflated by losses at Kentucky and at Wisconsin. And that top-50 RPI makes everybody who beat them in the MAC (6 losses in conference) look good. Central Michigan, even, could compete with us in RPI if they win the tournament - probably Toledo and Kent State could too.
Makes me nervous. And, indeed, Buffalo does better than Central Michigan, and better than us, on Bracketmatrix. A real risk they could keep us down in the 13 line.
Best bet? Hope for carnage starting Thursday in the MAC tournament (it's been chalk so far) and somebody like Akron winning out. Realistically? Maybe Kent State can knock off Buffalo, and then lose to Central Michigan. Or, even more realistically, hope for Central Michigan over Buffalo (they've already beat them twice) on Saturday.
Buffalo would be 5-3 against RPI 51-100 if they won. We're 3-1. Similar numbers of bad losses. Much too close for comfort, and I'd be afraid of the committee just going with RPI. (Buffalo's ahead of us in the Sagarin too, though not by nearly as much as in the RPI).
Buffalo's not gotten any love in the national polls, or even in the mid-major coaches' poll. But, an RPI of 27 would be awfully hard to ignore.
Quote from: classof2014 on March 11, 2015, 09:27:54 AM
No matter who we play we'll be the underdogs... obviously. Valpo's chances at winning a game or two is much higher than 2 years ago. I think we're a 12 but at worst a 13. I agree teams like Iowa St, Oklahoma, and West Virginia would be good draws for us, there's a possibility of an upset there.
To me though Butler would be our best draw. Not just because it'd be a great rivalry game but they're the worst of the group, in my opinion. They aren't overly athletic and we match up well with them. If we get Butler I give our chances of winning around 35-40% while the worst draw to me would be North Carolina 10-15% chance of winning.
Agree on both counts. I have watched Butler play a few times and they make very few mistakes but are not very athletic. They play that slow down lock down defense which keeps game close both ways. Lunardi has us as a 12 playing North Carolina in Seattle. Not good on many fronts.
Not to start a controversy, but I think this team is a fair amount better then our 12-13 team. Let's call Rowdy and Alec a push. Kevin would have a hard time not getting stuffed by this year's version of Vashil. Let's also call Keith and Erik Buggs a push. I'd take Adekoye over Bobby C. Then it's Boggs, Kenney, Dority and Bogan versus T. Walker, D. Walker, E. Victor and Max Joseph. Oh yeah, I'll take David Skara over Jordan Coleman as well.
Quote from: agibson on March 11, 2015, 11:15:56 AM
Quote from: ValpoHoops on March 11, 2015, 10:45:22 AMMAC: Buffalo (30), Central Michigan (75), Toledo (77)
Man, I forgot all about Buffalo. And, now as I look more carefully, the whole MAC sort of smells like trouble! Four top-100 teams! (Including Kent State.)
Buffalo's RPI is inflated by losses at Kentucky and at Wisconsin. And that top-50 RPI makes everybody who beat them in the MAC (6 losses in conference) look good. Central Michigan, even, could compete with us in RPI if they win the tournament - probably Toledo and Kent State could too.
Makes me nervous. And, indeed, Buffalo does better than Central Michigan, and better than us, on Bracketmatrix. A real risk they could keep us down in the 13 line.
Best bet? Hope for carnage starting Thursday in the MAC tournament (it's been chalk so far) and somebody like Akron winning out. Realistically? Maybe Kent State can knock off Buffalo, and then lose to Central Michigan. Or, even more realistically, hope for Central Michigan over Buffalo (they've already beat them twice) on Saturday.
Buffalo would be 5-3 against RPI 51-100 if they won. We're 3-1. Similar numbers of bad losses. Much too close for comfort, and I'd be afraid of the committee just going with RPI. (Buffalo's ahead of us in the Sagarin too, though not by nearly as much as in the RPI).
Buffalo's not gotten any love in the national polls, or even in the mid-major coaches' poll. But, an RPI of 27 would be awfully hard to ignore.
Everyone should take a look at how the MAC scheduled their non-con as a whole this year. We need to emulate it to the best of our ability. Every team in the conference has at least 6 loses in conference play, yet still have a bunch of teams with RPI's under 100. Had 3 teams broke away from the pack and only had 2-3 loses a piece in conference, you could be looking 3 bid league. As it is Buffalo could be this years VCU of 2011. A team nobody thought would get an at large, but does.
The definition of "gaming the system" from the American Quack College Dictionary 2015 Ducky Press -First Edition
Quote from: SanityLost17 on March 11, 2015, 07:00:26 PMEveryone should take a look at how the MAC scheduled their non-con as a whole this year. We need to emulate it to the best of our ability. Every team in the conference has at least 6 loses in conference play, yet still have a bunch of teams with RPI's under 100. Had 3 teams broke away from the pack and only had 2-3 loses a piece in conference, you could be looking 3 bid league. As it is Buffalo could be this years VCU of 2011. A team nobody thought would get an at large, but does.
So your solution to a flawed system is to figure how to out game the master gamers. I would suggest that the master gamers are the cause of todays mid major scheduling nightmare and to join that movement will only make its ultimate solution more difficult. As I have said before it is time for some united thought and actions from all mid majors. The every man or conference for himself approach is doomed to failure with an eventual decline for all but a few.
Quote from: SanityLost17 on March 11, 2015, 07:00:26 PM
Quote from: agibson on March 11, 2015, 11:15:56 AM
Quote from: ValpoHoops on March 11, 2015, 10:45:22 AMMAC: Buffalo (30), Central Michigan (75), Toledo (77)
Man, I forgot all about Buffalo. And, now as I look more carefully, the whole MAC sort of smells like trouble! Four top-100 teams! (Including Kent State.)
Buffalo's RPI is inflated by losses at Kentucky and at Wisconsin. And that top-50 RPI makes everybody who beat them in the MAC (6 losses in conference) look good. Central Michigan, even, could compete with us in RPI if they win the tournament - probably Toledo and Kent State could too.
Makes me nervous. And, indeed, Buffalo does better than Central Michigan, and better than us, on Bracketmatrix. A real risk they could keep us down in the 13 line.
Best bet? Hope for carnage starting Thursday in the MAC tournament (it's been chalk so far) and somebody like Akron winning out. Realistically? Maybe Kent State can knock off Buffalo, and then lose to Central Michigan. Or, even more realistically, hope for Central Michigan over Buffalo (they've already beat them twice) on Saturday.
Buffalo would be 5-3 against RPI 51-100 if they won. We're 3-1. Similar numbers of bad losses. Much too close for comfort, and I'd be afraid of the committee just going with RPI. (Buffalo's ahead of us in the Sagarin too, though not by nearly as much as in the RPI).
Buffalo's not gotten any love in the national polls, or even in the mid-major coaches' poll. But, an RPI of 27 would be awfully hard to ignore.
Everyone should take a look at how the MAC scheduled their non-con as a whole this year. We need to emulate it to the best of our ability. Every team in the conference has at least 6 loses in conference play, yet still have a bunch of teams with RPI's under 100. Had 3 teams broke away from the pack and only had 2-3 loses a piece in conference, you could be looking 3 bid league. As it is Buffalo could be this years VCU of 2011. A team nobody thought would get an at large, but does.
I think the MAC has done a better job in 2 areas relative to your point:
1. The MAC is out recruiting the HL right now. They don't have any outstanding teams like N. Iowa and Wichita State, but 2/3 of MAC teams have a winning record, opposed to 1/3 of HL teams.
2. The MAC is doing a better job of scheduling the best OOC opponents they think they can beat. They didn't over schedule like Oakland or under schedule like Valpo and others.
Of the two areas, recruiting will always be more important than scheduling - by far. Valpo is a good example. We did a bad job of OOC scheduling, we played conference opponents that did a bad job of OOC scheduling, and we played conference opponents with losing records (all of which are theoretical RPI killers), yet we finished with an RPI of 53 because we won 25 of 30 D-1 games. There is no substitute for winning, and that takes talent.
The MAC knew what it was doing for scheduling.
Buffalo "gamed the system" by getting blown out by Wisconsin and Kentucky, which actually significantly increased their RPI. Their best OOC win was a home win against SD State, whom had an RPI in the 90s. The rest of the games were filled with relatively easy games. It's the best schedule a mid-major can come up with, but difficult to actually get there. The rest of the MAC teams scheduled weaker OOC, but won a lot of games. Actually, there were SEVEN MAC teams with a worse OOC SOS than Valpo. But since each team's W/L record was high, their SOS actually increased overall during the conference season, meaning everyone's RPIs got a bit of a jump.
This graphic might help explain what's going on:
(http://i.imgur.com/adiSjVp.png)
The Horizon actually had a better OOC RPI average than the MAC. But the MAC is 10 in overall RPI (ahead of even the MW). We're 16th (below the Ivy League and Big West). Check this out:
(http://i.imgur.com/j5hJnvU.png)
This explains a lot. They had really weak OOC opponents (literally the worst in all of college basketball), and we had really strong OOC opponents. They won a lot more games. Are the two conferences really THAT different talent-wise? Probably not as much as the numbers suggest. That SD State win by Buffalo was actually one of the best wins the MAC had. EMU beat 88 Michigan on the road (team that was playing terrible enough to lose to NJIT, so hold your horses). They only had 4 OOC wins in the top 100 (88, 93, 97, 98) with 12 teams. We had a better OOC win than anyone in the MAC (Murray State). Total, the HL had 6 top 100 OOC wins with 9 teams. So it's not like they're knocking off top teams and dominating.
One more ticket punched last night, in the Patriot League, where 4th-seeded Lafayette got the win.
No Championship games now until Saturday, but a lot of #1 seeds will get their tournaments under way today and tomorrow, so there could be a lot of movement.
(http://i61.tinypic.com/29lbazq.jpg)
Teams from major conferences I'm rooting to pull off super unlikely upsets: TCU, Creighton or Marquette, Florida St., Penn St. or Minnesota, South Carolina or Tennessee, Colorado, the bottom 4 remaining seeds of the A10, and the bottom 3 remaining seeds of the AAC. If all of them pull off their crazy upsets that would likely move us up 2 seed lines.
Quote from: Kyle321n on March 12, 2015, 09:40:29 AM
Teams from major conferences I'm rooting to pull off super unlikely upsets: TCU, Creighton or Marquette, Florida St., Penn St. or Minnesota, South Carolina or Tennessee, Colorado, the bottom 4 remaining seeds of the A10, and the bottom 3 remaining seeds of the AAC. If all of them pull off their crazy upsets that would likely move us up 2 seed lines.
Not sure I follow. Are you asking these teams to have an upset in their conference tournament first or second round, or are you rooting for these teams to actually win their conference tournament?
If you're rooting for the latter (which I admire), you'll be done rooting before Saturday afternoon.
Our best rooting chances are for SF Austin and La Tech to lose in their respective tournaments. That would possibly moves us up one or two spots.
Quote from: covufan on March 12, 2015, 10:21:44 AMAre you asking these teams to have an upset in their conference tournament first or second round, or are you rooting for these teams to actually win their conference tournament?
He's just giving a best-case, perfect-world idea of what he would like to see happen if every single game went the way we would want. We all know it won't, but a guy can hope...
Quote from: covufan on March 12, 2015, 10:21:44 AM
Quote from: Kyle321n on March 12, 2015, 09:40:29 AM
Teams from major conferences I'm rooting to pull off super unlikely upsets: TCU, Creighton or Marquette, Florida St., Penn St. or Minnesota, South Carolina or Tennessee, Colorado, the bottom 4 remaining seeds of the A10, and the bottom 3 remaining seeds of the AAC. If all of them pull off their crazy upsets that would likely move us up 2 seed lines.
Not sure I follow. Are you asking these teams to have an upset in their conference tournament first or second round, or are you rooting for these teams to actually win their conference tournament?
If you're rooting for the latter (which I admire), you'll be done rooting before Saturday afternoon.
Our best rooting chances are for SF Austin and La Tech to lose in their respective tournaments. That would possibly moves us up one or two spots.
Oh it's a crazy pipe dream. I also want to see the one bid leagues have upsets of 1 seeds so we continue to move up.
Granted if we want the best shot of making a little bit of a run a 12 seed would probably be best. That way we would play a 5 seed then the 4-13 winner. By the time you get to the sweet 16 there's a chance the 1 could have been beaten by an 8-9 so you could have another good match up.
If you end up at the 11 you'd most likely face a 3 in the second round and if you get the 10 seed you're up against a 2 which is no good for us.
Iona and Murray State have done us favors by losing, so far.
Quote
Buffalo's RPI is inflated by losses at Kentucky and at Wisconsin. And that top-50 RPI makes everybody who beat them in the MAC (6 losses in conference) look good. Central Michigan, even, could compete with us in RPI if they win the tournament - probably Toledo and Kent State could too.
Makes me nervous. And, indeed, Buffalo does better than Central Michigan, and better than us, on Bracketmatrix. A real risk they could keep us down in the 13 line.
Best bet? Hope for carnage starting Thursday in the MAC tournament (it's been chalk so far) and somebody like Akron winning out. Realistically? Maybe Kent State can knock off Buffalo, and then lose to Central Michigan. Or, even more realistically, hope for Central Michigan over Buffalo (they've already beat them twice) on Saturday.
I guess we'll call Akron over Kent State a success. It gets rid of Kent, Akron's not going to pass us in RPI, and Akron's already beat Buffalo once this year.
Even if our RPI is up to 52, it'd sure be nice for Akron to win out. Or, barring that, we'd like Buffalo to at least lose (to Akron, or to Central Michigan or Toledo).
Quote
CUSA tournament starts Wednesday, with everybody playing Thursday, Friday, Saturday. Root for carnage basically. Maybe UAB? (Louisiana Tech's a plausible 12 seed; Old Dominion's on the edge of the bubble; even UTEP could compete with us for seeding if they win the tournament.)
Old Dominion losing to the boys from Murfreesboro is good. It probably knocks out their at-large hopes (doesn't much affect us one way or the other), and gets them out of the competition for the at-large, giving a better shot to one of the lesser teams.
Rice must have come on strong in the second half, to finish within six of LA Tech.
We could maybe survive a UTEP win, but it'd be uncomfortably close. UAB seems to have barely survived Western Kentucky, but it'd be really good if they could somehow win two more.
So far Davis and Georgia State have come out consistently below us on brackets. But, their RPI's will get a boost if they win their tourneys... So:
How about the Big West? Looks like Davis could still compete with us on RPI. We'd just as soon they lose today, to Hawaii, on ESPNU, 8:30 PM. (I notice they re-seed their tournament, not so good for RPI...). Or they could lose Saturday on ESPN2.
In the Sun Belt, it looks like Georgia State, also, can compete on RPI. We'd like them to lose Saturday, or Sunday in the final.
So, overall, here's what I see.
We'd sure take MTSU continuing their run, and knocking off UTEP (could compete for 12 seed) at 3:00 PM Friday on CBSSN.
We'd like SFA (likely 12 seed) to lose Friday at 5 PM, ESPN3. Or Saturday 8:30 PM ESPN2.
We'd love UAB to knock off LA Tech (plausible 12 seed) Friday at 5:30 PM, CBSSN.
We'd like Buffalo (likely 12 seed) to lose Friday at 8 PM to Akron, and preferably for Akron to win Saturday as well, on ESPN2.
We'd like Georgia State (possible competition on RPI) to lose Saturday at noon on ESPN3. Or Sunday in he final.
We'd like Harvard (plausible 12, with historic appeal) to lose to Yale, I think, at 3 PM, Saturday, ESPN3. But, either one could be trouble.
And, as mentioned, the Southland, MAC, and Big West finals are Saturday as well. And the Sun Belt final Sunday.
It seems like the Horizon, Southland, Southern, CUSA, Ivy, and MAC, Big West, and Sun Belt, are competing for three 12 seeds...
Probably we ought to be looking more at selection team sheets, and head-to-head comparisons. But, we can still get some help from most of these conferences.
Could we even fall to a low 13? Or even in discussion for a 14? The RPI's could certainly tighten up, if the top RPI teams win their tourneys...
Overall: we still feel like a 13 to me. But, I've not looked much at head-to-head comparisons.
No table update today. But, not a lot of RPI movement last night.
Today, EVERY SINGLE #1 SEED THAT REMAINS PLAYS. All of them.
So, quite possibly a lot of movement for tomorrow.
Quote from: ValpoHoops on March 13, 2015, 03:30:51 PM
Today, EVERY SINGLE #1 SEED THAT REMAINS PLAYS. All of them.
I'm not looking to far into it, but I'm going to go ahead and root for all of them to lose.
MTSU is through! UTEP is down, and we have two more chances to knock off LA Tech.
Quote from: ValpoHoops on March 13, 2015, 03:30:51 PM
Today, EVERY SINGLE #1 SEED THAT REMAINS PLAYS. All of them
Except GA State?
Quote from: agibson on March 13, 2015, 07:22:34 PM
Quote from: ValpoHoops on March 13, 2015, 03:30:51 PM
Today, EVERY SINGLE #1 SEED THAT REMAINS PLAYS. All of them
Except GA State?
Ah, you got me. I have the wrong dates for their semi and final on my spreadsheet.
"All #1 SEEDS PLAY TODAY (or possibly tomorroe)"
Quote from: agibson on March 13, 2015, 06:00:20 PM
MTSU is through! UTEP is down, and we have two more chances to knock off LA Tech.
UAB led by as much as 14. But, it's going to overtime.
UTEP and Louisiana Tech both lose!!! C-USA Final is UAB (RPI 139) vs Middle Tennessee (RPI 128), both teams with 15 losses. Big help!
RPIs according to RPIforecast.com
Lost by ten, with a huge foul differential. Practically an Oakland scenario.
I'd not noticed the tournament was being played in Birminghham, hone of the 4th seed UAB.
Tough way for LA Tech to go out, but good for us.
Conference USA: 14 team, 1 bid league
MAC: 12 team, 1 bid league (probably) and always historically
12 and 14 team mid major conferences may work for football, but terrible for basketball.
Somebody help me with my memory.
2010-11 Butler as national runner up has lost at YSU, at VU, at WSU and home and away to UWM. The HL is ranked as the 8th or 9th best conference ahead of the MVC. I do not remember their OOC losses or overall record but had they lost the HL championship game were they viewed as an at-large lock? I seem to recall their RPI being between 38-45. Were they an 8 or 9 seed? Could we have been a 2 bid league that year?
Alright everyone, we have a major conference team to root for: Auburn. 13 seed in the SEC and 100+ RPI
Why?
I'm also rooting for peace in the middle east, congress to get along, and someone to leave a briefcase full of $100,000 in front of my apartment.
"Lamar was a two-time state yelling champion, who had dreams of someday finding a box of money."
Quote from: Kyle321n on March 13, 2015, 11:52:04 PM
Alright everyone, we have a major conference team to root for: Auburn. 13 seed in the SEC and 100+ RPI
Maybe. But, against KY? To whom they lost (ok - on the road) by 35?
It does look like their RPI would remain uncompetitive, but they'd be 4-4 against the top 50, and talk about a quality win. There would be fireworks , for sure. But, it'd be pretty hard to put them on the 13 line.
Quote from: agibson on March 13, 2015, 08:02:27 PM
And four of those are still playing (buffalo/central mich, Harvard/Yale, GA State, SFA).
Nice to be solidly in a 12 seed on Bracketmatrix at the moment. Hopefully it lasts.
I'm not excited about the head-to-head against any of Buffalo, Central Michigan, Harvard, or Yale.
In the MAC, do we prefer the team with the elite-level RPI? Or the team with three top-50 wins?
I think the 12 seed is going to be a tough call. Paul Oren seems to think LA Tech losing was enough, but I think it's going to be far from clear during the Selection Show.
A small update to the spreadsheet today. I will update a few times throughout the day as bids are clinched and semi-final games are played.
I think this should help clear up some of the rooting interest thoughts.
Interesting tidbit from the SWAC: There will be a title game played Saturday night but Texas Southern has already clinched the automatic bid because both teams from the other semi-final (Alabama State and Southern) are ineligible for post-season play. So, the Texas Southern/Prairie View semi-final was the de facto title game.
Top Seeds to lose Friday: Louisiana Tech (CUSA), Virginia (ACC), NC Central (MEAC), Montana (Big Sky), UC-Davis (Big West).
Note 1: Teams remaining is simply sorted by seed, not by RPI.
Note 2: All times listed are CENTRAL
(http://i58.tinypic.com/2gyan40.jpg)
Oakland get's a home game in the post-season...
and
Cleveland State accepts a road game in the CIT... last year they lost at Ohio 64-62 in the opening round of the CIT.
Looks like cheer against Purdue, Rhode Island, and U Conn. Those would be bad surprises and big upsets. Right?
Otherwise it seems pretty like we are slotted for better or for worse.
Am I reading this right? Seems unlikely any of the 3 teams above win.
Quote from: crusadermoe on March 14, 2015, 11:34:41 AM
Looks like cheer against Purdue, Rhode Island, and U Conn. Those would be bad surprises and big upsets. Right?
Otherwise it seems pretty like we are slotted for better or for worse.
Am I reading this right? Seems unlikely any of the 3 teams above win.
Wrong. Those games actually shouldn't affect us a lot. If the teams you listed win, their respective RPI's will likely be ahead of ours, and the other teams in their leagues are ahead of us to begin with, thus their auto-bid team will slot in ahead of us on the seed list.
Bubble teams DO NOT AFFECT our seeding...they are not part of the "bracket fillers" that fill in the bottom of the seed list. We need as many teams to be in the "bracket fillers" group as possible...which will put more teams below us. We are not in competition for seeding with bubble teams.
We need to root for teams like Wyoming, Montana, Sam Houston State, Auburn and anyone from the Sun Belt not named Georgia State.
Quote from: ValpoHoops on March 14, 2015, 11:44:51 AMWe need to root for teams like Wyoming, Montana, Sam Houston State, Auburn and anyone from the Sun Belt not named Georgia State.
Don't really think you can root for Auburn either. If they would somehow win the tournament it would be hard to place them as a 13 seed or lower.
Quote from: FWalum on March 14, 2015, 11:57:54 AM
Quote from: ValpoHoops on March 14, 2015, 11:44:51 AMWe need to root for teams like Wyoming, Montana, Sam Houston State, Auburn and anyone from the Sun Belt not named Georgia State.
Don't really think you can root for Auburn either. If they would somehow win the tournament it would be hard to place them as a 13 seed or lower.
In 2008, Georgia finished with a 17-16 record after winning the SEC Tournament. You may recall that they had to win two games on Sunday after a tornado hit the Georgia Dome late Saturday night. They were given a 14 seed.
Auburn would be 17-19, and would have a similar SEC record (4-14, UGA in 2008 was 4-12). I believe they would be seeded similarly.
I also believe it won't matter because Kentucky isn't going to lose to Auburn.
agreed. but glad to see that Auburn drew blood first as it will likely be their last blow against Kentucky today. Noticed CBC sports still has us a 12 but now against Butler...entirely beatable.
Update following the Ivy final. Still looking like we will be straddling the 12/13 line. If the seed list was based strictly on RPI, we would need to "beat" 18 teams to be a 12, and right now, we are ahead of 13 teams that have clinched, with a couple more to fall in behind as well.
(http://i62.tinypic.com/i5ah4i.jpg)
Harvard it is. Of course, past years' successes aren't supposed to count for anything.
Looks like they're just a touch behind us in RPI (52 Warren Nolan to our 50).
4-1 against RPI 51-100 (Yale 65 x2 , Massachusetts 81, Northeastern 86) to our 3-1 (Green Bay 55x2, Murray State 64). A loss against Virginia to boost their RPI. 20-7 D1 with a 137 SOS. To our 25-5 with 223 SOS. They have more losses 101-200 (4 to our 2), we have an extra 200+ loss.
Going to be close.
The comparison with SFA looks very grim. We definitely would like them to lose. They have a sparkling 35 RPI, only a single 200+ loss, and their _only_ other losses are to the top-50. They have our same three 50-100 wins (Sam Houston x2, Memphis) and would add a fourth. They have three top-50 losses to pad their RPI. 187 SOS to our 223.
It's hard to see how we'd be seeded ahead of them.
The comparison with Wofford looks somewhat better. Depending on your perspective. RPI 47, SOS 203 to our 50 and 223. Four losses to RPI 51+, compared to our 5. But, looking in more detail, it doesn't look great. They have a win at NC State (RPI 40) - for some that will put them over the top. And a win against 51 Iona. A win at Sam Houston State (top-100) and losses at top-100 William and Mary and Stanford. Losses at top-50 Duke and WV to pad their RPI.
Call it a toss-up against Harvard, probably give a slight edge to Wofford, and we lose to SFA. Competing for three #12 seeds.
It'd also be interesting to compare to Central Michigan and Buffalo (or the winner) and Georgia State.
Wyoming Wins!!! You have GOT to love those brown and gold unis!!! Inching closer to a for sure 12!!
Quote from: vu72 on March 14, 2015, 07:04:00 PM
Wyoming Wins!!! You have GOT to love those brown and gold unis!!! Inching closer to a for sure 12!!
Wyoming will be a very interesting case. A champion from a larger conference. The MWC is the #11 league, while the HL is #16.
Valpo: 3-1 vs. Top 100 (three games vs. Green Bay, Murray State)
Wyoming: 5-3 vs. Top 100, and all of those games are against teams in the top 42.
I have to think Wyoming will be higher than Valpo on the Seed List...unfortunately, I don't think this one helps us.
Quote from: ValpoHoops on March 14, 2015, 07:22:43 PM
Quote from: vu72 on March 14, 2015, 07:04:00 PM
Wyoming Wins!!! You have GOT to love those brown and gold unis!!! Inching closer to a for sure 12!!
Wyoming will be a very interesting case. A champion from a larger conference. The MWC is the #11 league, while the HL is #16.
Valpo: 3-1 vs. Top 100 (three games vs. Green Bay, Murray State)
Wyoming: 5-3 vs. Top 100, and all of those games are against teams in the top 42.
I have to think Wyoming will be higher than Valpo on the Seed List...unfortunately, I don't think this one helps us.
Well, up to this point you have based everything on RPI. Ours is lower.
Quote from: vu72 on March 14, 2015, 07:34:38 PM
Quote from: ValpoHoops on March 14, 2015, 07:22:43 PM
Quote from: vu72 on March 14, 2015, 07:04:00 PM
Wyoming Wins!!! You have GOT to love those brown and gold unis!!! Inching closer to a for sure 12!!
Wyoming will be a very interesting case. A champion from a larger conference. The MWC is the #11 league, while the HL is #16.
Valpo: 3-1 vs. Top 100 (three games vs. Green Bay, Murray State)
Wyoming: 5-3 vs. Top 100, and all of those games are against teams in the top 42.
I have to think Wyoming will be higher than Valpo on the Seed List...unfortunately, I don't think this one helps us.
Well, up to this point you have based everything on RPI. Ours is lower.
That's why I keep saying "if the Seed List was based strictly on RPI". If it was, we are certainly ahead of them, but I think they will get slotted higher than us.
I just chose to use RPI as my metric of choice because it's readily available, and rather than guess, I just sort by the numbers.
Quote from: ValpoHoops on March 14, 2015, 07:22:43 PM
Quote from: vu72 on March 14, 2015, 07:04:00 PM
Wyoming Wins!!! You have GOT to love those brown and gold unis!!! Inching closer to a for sure 12!!
Wyoming will be a very interesting case. A champion from a larger conference. The MWC is the #11 league, while the HL is #16.
Valpo: 3-1 vs. Top 100 (three games vs. Green Bay, Murray State)
Wyoming: 5-3 vs. Top 100, and all of those games are against teams in the top 42.
I have to think Wyoming will be higher than Valpo on the Seed List...unfortunately, I don't think this one helps us.
Very interesting! It probably also can't hurt us, unless something funny happens with the play-in games, maybe.
Wyoming seems to have topped out at a 72 RPI, way off our 50 RPI pace. But, everyone's always said it's more about your _opponents'_ RPI.
They do have 5 RPI 100+ losses, to our 4. (Though we have an extra 200+.) Their SOS is, of course, considerably better.
23-9 record to our 25-5.
It's just so unfair to compare big conference teams to mid-majors, like this. Yes, they have 5 RPI top-50 winds (and three losses). But two of the wins are at home, and two are on a neutral court. And they all come after January 1. Our top-50 RPI games, if we had any, would be in November and December and on the road.
I don't know if they have "signature" wins, but those five top-50's are probably going to put them past us.
Not that Wyoming hurts us, per se, but it begins to feel to me that if we get a 12, it's going to be because of Bryce. Either just name rec, or recognizing that we have a quality coach which might give us an edge in tournament games (here I'm assuming they've not thought _too_ hard about Bryce's record against the top-50, over his coaching years). Or, maybe because somebody fills in the committee about our injury situation, and claims that we're going to be healthy in the tournament. Not that it would have given us any signature, or top-50, wins. But, if we were always healthy it might have burnished our record a bit...
But, mostly, I'm expecting a 13.
Automatic bid teams can not be placed into the play-in games unless they are the bottom four teams. The "Last Four In" are placed in Dayton, usually as 11-13 seeds, wherever they fall in the bracket.
We will not be playing in Dayton.
I count 18 we're ahead of--again, just based on your RPI numbers:
- Harvard
- Northeastern
- ND St
- Belmont
- Albany
- Lafayette
- Tx So
- Coastal Carolina
- UAB
- N Flo
- Manhattan
- Rob Morris
- Hampton
- Wyoming
- Big Sky winner
- WAC winner
- Big West winner
- Sun Belt winner
Plus, CMU could still pull it out over UB; and Sam Houston could make his last stand (at the Alamodome?). That would help in case some (even they themselves) have a more attractive overall resumé.
IT COULD HAPPEN
Quote from: ValpoHoops on March 14, 2015, 07:48:53 PM
Automatic bid teams can not be placed into the play-in games unless they are the bottom four teams. The "Last Four In" are placed in Dayton, usually as 11-13 seeds, wherever they fall in the bracket.
We will not be playing in Dayton.
Sure, we're not going to Dayton.
Quote
Very interesting! [I don't think this Wyoming win's going to help us...] It probably also can't hurt us, unless something funny happens with the play-in games, maybe.
What I was considering is whether Wyoming's win might perhaps affect the play-in seeds in a way detrimental to us. I'd been assuming a single 12-12 play-off game, leaving three 12 seeds open to bottom-filler automatic qualifiers. Perhaps Wyoming could push a second pair of at-large teams to another 12-12 playoff, leaving just two 12 seeds for AQ's.
That may not be possible, either, given the accounting of bottom-fillers...
Hoops, I understand and agree that we won't really know till tomorrow. The committee might be faced with a similar situation should SFA win tonight. Let me explain: Wyoming has an RPI of 80 versus our 51. A difference of 29. As you point out however, they play is a better conference--not WAY better but better. In the same way, if SFA wins, their RPI will be about 35 versus our 51, a difference of only 16, and, we play in a WAY better conference. They may have some issues...
Quote from: agibson on March 14, 2015, 08:14:18 PMWhat I was considering is whether Wyoming's win might perhaps affect the play-in seeds in a way detrimental to us. I'd been assuming a single 12-12 play-off game, leaving three 12 seeds open to bottom-filler automatic qualifiers. Perhaps Wyoming could push a second pair of at-large teams to another 12-12 playoff, leaving just two 12 seeds for AQ's.
This is one of the biggest areas that it seems many folks don't understand.
There are a finite number of spots in the tournament...and every "auto bid only" team fills the bottom of that list. A team stealing a bid DOESN'T knock teams down the seed list, it knocks a bubble team off of it.
Because of where we are, we count UP from the bottom trying to figure out our seed, rather than a team like Duke who counts down from the top. All Wyoming did is add another team to that mix and knock a bubble team to the NIT. For our purposes, just forget about the at large teams and where they get seeded...we just need to fall ahead of as many as possible.
Quote from: vu72 on March 14, 2015, 08:16:10 PM
Hoops, I understand and agree that we won't really know till tomorrow. The committee might be faced with a similar situation should SFA win tonight. Let me explain: Wyoming has an RPI of 80 versus our 51. A difference of 29. As you point out however, they play is a better conference--not WAY better but better. In the same way, if SFA wins, their RPI will be about 35 versus our 51, a difference of only 16, and, we play in a WAY better conference. They may have some issues...
Exactly. Wyoming will probably end up moving up 10 spots or so in the RPI tonight...I'm basing solely on opinion that I think they will fall ahead of us...SFA will be close as well. I really think in the 12/13 area, its going to come down to geography quite a bit (especially given those three teams being from vastly different areas of the country). And, undoubtedly, there will be a 12 seed who plays a 5 seed they don't match up with well, while at the same time there is a 13 that really likes who they get.
Looks like Buffalo will pull it out.
But, if it's true that the committee cares more about your opponents' RPI than your own, Buffalo winning could be good for us. Apart from their RPI (32 or better, buffered by losses to KY and WI), the head-to-head looks somewhat favorable for us.
Until tonight, against ~68 Central Michigan, their best win was 91 SD State, or home and away against 93 Kent State.
We definitely want SFA and Georgia State to lose!
Jerry Palm just released his latest bracket... he has these 5-12-site matchups
Georgetown Gets winner of PIG: Mississippi / BYU Jacksonville
Arkansas Harvard Portland
Louisville Wofford Jacksonville
Butler Valpo Seattle
Update following MAC title game.
Root for Sam Houston State and Montana tonight.
(http://i58.tinypic.com/2dhiwar.jpg)
Quote from: ValpoHoops on March 14, 2015, 08:26:39 PMThere are a finite number of spots in the tournament...and every "auto bid only" team fills the bottom of that list. A team stealing a bid DOESN'T knock teams down the seed list, it knocks a bubble team off of it.
Because of where we are, we count UP from the bottom trying to figure out our seed, rather than a team like Duke who counts down from the top. All Wyoming did is add another team to that mix and knock a bubble team to the NIT. For our purposes, just forget about the at large teams and where they get seeded...we just need to fall ahead of as many as possible.
Yeah, I was thinking there might be an exception around the at-large play-in games. But, on closer look, I think probably not. I mean, they _are_ a little different. They require two at-large teams, who may not be adjacent on the overall "seed list", naturally, to be put onto the same line. Maybe there's a chance that it knocks one of the AQ's who would have gotten a 12 seed _up_ to the 11 seed.
But, indeed, I don't think Wyoming can hurt us.
Quote from: agibson on March 14, 2015, 06:44:29 PMThe comparison with SFA looks very grim.
SFA up by 12 with about 10 minutes to go.
Go SHST!
Last update for the evening. Apparently, its nice out and the idiot golfers want to remember how terrible they are at the game, so someone has to be there to get them range balls...
I will update tomorrow with fresh RPI numbers. The more I look at these and other numbers, the more I'm convinced that we will be a 13 seed.
(http://i57.tinypic.com/dwat5s.jpg)
I think you guys are all assuming the selection process is logical, clear cut, and straight forward. A 12 will feel better, but it really depends on the opponent. Say UNC slides to a 5 and WSU gets a 4... At this point after WSU losing to Illinois State I think I'd rather play the Shockers.
A 12 seed can be justified over Wyoming, Wofford, SFA, and Harvard. Even Buffalo... their high RPI is a joke from their conference's insanely poor SOS, and their OOC RPI is inflated by loses to Wisconsin and Kentucky.
Lunardi now has us as a 13 playing Baylor in Jville
Quote from: a3uge on March 14, 2015, 10:53:47 PMA 12 seed can be justified over Wyoming, Wofford, SFA, and Harvard. Even Buffalo...
I think we somehow stay a 12.
Quote from: valpotx on March 14, 2015, 11:25:33 PMLunardi now has us as a 13 playing Baylor in Jville
If they set us up for a game with Baylor we will first have to beat our 5 and they will have to beat their 13.
Currently sitting above 17 teams that have already clinched in RPI. Sun Belt should provide an 18th, and UCONN could possibly be a 19th. If we are ahead of 18 teams on the final seed list, we would be a 12 if the bracket slotted in perfectly.
I still think Wyoming goes above us, and UCONN would as well with a win. Still thinking 13...but I hope I'm wrong.
(http://i61.tinypic.com/110f9yx.jpg)
Quote from: ValpoHoops link=topic=2119.msg57513#msg57513
I still think Wyoming goes above us, and UCONN would as well with a win. Still thinking 13...
Connecticut's an interesting case. If you play a bunch of top 50's, how many should you win? 7-8 against the top 50, but only 8-12 against the top 100.
There'd be at least a case to keep them on the 13 line.
But, yeah. Life's not fair. Probably they pass us.
Still, I'll root for them.
Turning on GA State, at first I assumed 21s left in the -first- half!
36-36!
Ron Hunter coaching against his son in the final. Dad wins, but is injured in the celebration - helped off the floor!
That was a great game but I don't know how Green Bay lost to Georgia St.
And the head coach for hurt in the celebration. That's crazy. He had to be helped off the court
Quote from: agibson on March 15, 2015, 02:02:37 PM
Ron Hunter coaching against his son in the final. Dad wins, but is injured in the celebration - helped off the floor!
Ron Hunter coaches his son. Does not coach against him.
Quote from: ValpoHoops on March 15, 2015, 12:22:06 PM
Currently sitting above 17 teams that have already clinched in RPI. Sun Belt should provide an 18th, and UCONN could possibly be a 19th. If we are ahead of 18 teams on the final seed list, we would be a 12 if the bracket slotted in perfectly.
I still think Wyoming goes above us, and UCONN would as well with a win. Still thinking 13...but I hope I'm wrong.
(http://i61.tinypic.com/110f9yx.jpg)
Yes, they might move up past us but if they start doing that we may also move up past a coupe of teams with very similar RPIs but from conferences much worse than the Horizon, namely the Southern and Southland--Wofford and SFA. Still should be a 12
Quote from: vu72 on March 15, 2015, 02:30:10 PMYes, they might move up past us but if they start doing that we may also move up past a coupe of teams with very similar RPIs but from conferences much worse than the Horizon, namely the Southern and Southland--Wofford and SFA. Still should be a 12
I do think we have a chance to jump Wofford. I don't know that we can jump SFA though...the RPI gap is significant. Honestly, I think who goes where among about 6 teams is really down to geography.
I will be curious to see the NCAA Seed List when all is said and done to see where we ranked before they built the bracket.
Quote from: ValpoHoops on March 15, 2015, 02:04:02 PM
Quote from: agibson on March 15, 2015, 02:02:37 PM
Ron Hunter coaching against his son in the final. Dad wins, but is injured in the celebration - helped off the floor!
Ron Hunter coaches his son. Does not coach against him.
OK - makes more sense.
In alphabetical order, the following teams received an invitation to the 2015 CIT:
[SO FAR]
Bowling Green Mid-American 20–11 11–7
Canisius MAAC 16–14 11–9
Cleveland State Horizon 18–14 11–15
Dartmouth Ivy League 14–14 7–7
Eastern Illinois Ohio Valley 17–14 9–7
Eastern Kentucky Ohio Valley 19–11 11–5
Evansville Missouri Valley 19–12 9–9
Florida Gulf Coast Atlantic Sun 22–10 12–3
James Madison CAA 19–13 12–6
Incarnate Word Southland 18–10 10–8
IPFW The Summit 16–14 9–7
Monmouth MAAC 18–15 13–7
New Hampshire America East 19–12 11–5
NJIT D-I independent 18–11
Norfolk State MEAC 20–13 12–4
Northwestern State Southaland 19–12 13–5
Oakland Horizon 16–16 11–5
Portland West Coast 17–15 7–11
Saint Francis (PA) Northeast 16–15 9–9
Tennessee–Martin Ohio Valley 18–12 10–6
Texas A&M–Corpus Christi Southland 19–13 13–5
USC Upstate Atlantic Sun 23–11 8–6
Western Michigan Mid-American 20–12 10–8
CBI has not listed anyone yet...
§Format[edit]
The CIT will again use the former NIT model in which match-ups in each round are re-seeded based on the results of the previous round. All games are played on campus sites.[1]
So when you add up all the teams playing in the NCAAs, NIT, CBI and CIT, you end up with nearly half of the 351 D1s. At least I don't see any losing records in the CIT list but do see a 14-14 and 16-16 and a few teams with lonly 2 more wins then losses. Pretty lame...
Quote from: ValpoHoops on March 15, 2015, 02:39:08 PMI do think we have a chance to jump Wofford. I don't know that we can jump SFA though...the RPI gap is significant. Honestly, I think who goes where among about 6 teams is really down to geography.
I will be curious to see the NCAA Seed List when all is said and done to see where we ranked before they built the bracket.
My eyeball test suggests that Wyoming is a strong challenge but by using various RPI ratings in combination with Kenpom and Sagarin (the last 2 having different methodologies) my seed list in descending order is
#1 SFA
#2 Buffalo
#3 VU
#4 Harvard
#5 Wofford
#6 Wyoming The Sagarin number for them is 30 spots below us and KP has them 39 lower. I generally trust these 2 much more than any of the RPI numbers. Just watch! The committee will probably totally reverse my seeding order!
Quote from: justducky on March 15, 2015, 03:27:34 PM
Quote from: ValpoHoops on March 15, 2015, 02:39:08 PMI do think we have a chance to jump Wofford. I don't know that we can jump SFA though...the RPI gap is significant. Honestly, I think who goes where among about 6 teams is really down to geography.
I will be curious to see the NCAA Seed List when all is said and done to see where we ranked before they built the bracket.
My eyeball test suggests that Wyoming is a strong challenge but by using various RPI ratings in combination with Kenpom and Sagarin (the last 2 having different methodologies) my seed list in descending order is
#1 SFA
#2 Buffalo
#3 VU
#4 Harvard
#5 Wofford
#6 Wyoming The Sagarin number for them is 30 spots below us and KP has them 39 lower. I generally trust these 2 much more than any of the RPI numbers. Just watch! The committee will probably totally reverse my seeding order!
Not only does the selection committee not use Sagarin, Massey, KPOM, BPI data, they don't even SEE it. They see RPI, SOS, wins and losses.
Quote from: a3uge on March 15, 2015, 03:43:18 PMNot only does the selection committee not use Sagarin, Massey, KPOM, BPI data, they don't even SEE it. They see RPI, SOS, wins and losses.
Last time I tried that conventional approach and was totally wrong thus i am winging it from a different direction.
Hey I forgot to include Georgia St whose numbers would come in at #4 just behind VU and slightly ahead of Harvard.
Michigan State looks like they might win the Big10 tournament...
Might move them up to a 5 seed because of it.... Another Valpo vs. MSU matchup?
Quote from: SanityLost17 on March 15, 2015, 04:01:07 PM
Michigan State looks like they might win the Big10 tournament...
Might move them up to a 5 seed because of it.... Another Valpo vs. MSU matchup?
Can't. Committee avoids rematches from past 2 tournaments.
Quote from: a3uge on March 15, 2015, 04:04:14 PM
Quote from: SanityLost17 on March 15, 2015, 04:01:07 PM
Michigan State looks like they might win the Big10 tournament...
Might move them up to a 5 seed because of it.... Another Valpo vs. MSU matchup?
Can't. Committee avoids rematches from past 2 tournaments.
I know, I just wanted to scare people.