The Valparaiso Beacons Fan Zone Forum

Valpo Sports => Valpo Basketball => Topic started by: 78crusader on December 07, 2012, 09:04:14 AM

Title: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: 78crusader on December 07, 2012, 09:04:14 AM
I probably should not be the one starting this thread since I do not think we are capable of beating a good team on the road, but here goes:

VU 61
New Mexico 84
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: vu72 on December 07, 2012, 09:34:41 AM
Quote from: 78crusader on December 07, 2012, 09:04:14 AM
I probably should not be the one starting this thread since I do not think we are capable of beating a good team on the road, but here goes:

VU 61
New Mexico 84

You may be right of course, but I highly doubt we will lose by 23 and could well win this one.  Their record is full of close wins including: eating Davidson by 5 (a team Loyola beat), UIC by 7, George Mason by 1, Indiana State by 9 in Over Time, and USC by 8, a team Nebraska beat by something like 15.

With the boys a lot more healthy, I will say Valpo 60 New Mexico 56.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: DMvalpo18 on December 07, 2012, 09:53:49 AM
I love the optimism 72, but with recent road performances I have to classify myself as a doubter. I'm including that intangible Valpo factor that always inhibits us from shooting well against bigger opponents on the road. Somebody brought it up earlier. Why can our program not pick up a big win on the road? So many other programs in the Horizon manage to get one every year, but for some reason not us. What's the deal? What explains it?
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: LaPorteAveApostle on December 07, 2012, 10:28:41 AM
Quote from: DMvalpo18 on December 07, 2012, 09:53:49 AMbut with recent road performances I have to classify myself as

SOMEONE WHO THINKS WE'RE  :-X ING OVERDUE.

VU 72
UNM 67
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: HC on December 07, 2012, 10:55:38 AM
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on December 07, 2012, 10:28:41 AM
Quote from: DMvalpo18 on December 07, 2012, 09:53:49 AMbut with recent road performances I have to classify myself as
SOMEONE WHO THINKS WE'RE  :-X ING OVERDUE. VU 72 UNM 67

Love it, this is were we learn how to win.  I wish this game was next weekend when Dority will be ready to go.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: vu84v2 on December 07, 2012, 11:19:00 AM
I cannot pick Valpo to win given that they have played so poorly on the road against decent opponents.  Furthermore, their offense has looked awful against IPFW and Saint Louis. 

New Mexico 68
Valpo 58

I would like to be wrong.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: VUfan on December 07, 2012, 11:23:23 AM
New Mexico 68 Valpo 55
The road woes go on. The role players do not think scoring part of that role. Buggs tries to fill the gap.  ??? Woe to him!!
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: LaPorteAveApostle on December 07, 2012, 11:53:28 AM
Quote from: HC on December 07, 2012, 10:55:38 AMI wish this game was next weekend when Dority will be ready to go.

THIS TIMES A GOOGOL


EDIT: 
EXCEPT FOR THE INCORRECT APPLICATION OF THE PAST SUBJUNCTIVE CONTRARY-TO-FACT CONDITION OF THE VERB "to be".

I wish this game were next weekend when Dority will be ready to go.

(http://iwanticewater.files.wordpress.com/2009/12/there-i-fixed-it-14.jpg)
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: valpotx on December 07, 2012, 01:05:34 PM
We still can't win a quality road game as some others have mentioned.  Luckily, I get to attempt to watch this one on a cruise ship in the Caribbean  :thumbsup:

UNM 73
Valpo 58
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: bbtds on December 07, 2012, 01:25:01 PM
New Mexico      72
Valpo              56
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: wh on December 07, 2012, 01:30:57 PM
Quote from: vu84v2 on December 07, 2012, 11:19:00 AM
I cannot pick Valpo to win given that they have played so poorly on the road against decent opponents.  Furthermore, their offense has looked awful against IPFW and Saint Louis. 

New Mexico 68
Valpo 58

I would like to be wrong.

This expresses my feelings pretty well.  Of course I, too, would like to be wrong.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: crusadermoe on December 07, 2012, 01:33:04 PM
New Mexico  87
Valpo 61

I think we will hit a low point at the "pit".  It  will be rocking due to their Top 25 rank so I think they will build a 15+ lead at the half and never look back.   

But I do give us a better than even chance of winning at Mo. State after finals week and turning things around after that. 

Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: vu72 on December 07, 2012, 01:35:28 PM
The history is obvious but this year when we played at SLU, Ryan was very ill and Capo was also hurting.  Both will be better for this game and we've had another game to get our act together.  This year's acclimation to the new guys has taken longer than last year but we also know that Richie, for example, played better as the year went on.  I expect the same for our new guys.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: milanmiracle on December 07, 2012, 04:06:44 PM
No chance here...at The Pit with an undefeated team coached by Alford. Funny.

New Mexico 78
Valpo 55

Alford's smart enough to watch the game film of St Louis and will shadow Ryan. Ryan's averaged 11pts per against Valpo's best three opponents (Kent St, Nebraska, and St Louis). Not saying its all his fault, but it's reality. When Ryan can't score Valpo struggles.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: 78crusader on December 07, 2012, 05:07:12 PM
OK so I began this thread by saying VU loses by 23.

My secret hope is that for once we come out with something other than a defeatist, we-can't-win attitude, play well, and hold NM to maybe a 6 or 8 point win.  Maybe that would give us something to build on going forward.

Paul
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: covufan on December 07, 2012, 05:26:39 PM
I agree that our road record against teams that are either comparable or better has not been as good as most here would like to see.  I do think we can beat Missouri St. and Oakland, and with some luck Murray St.  It would be great to see a win in the Pit, but most likely not going to happen.

New Mexico   75
Valpo            69

I'm hoping that I'm wrong and we have a made 3 here, an O-board there, a favorable whistle here, some D-boards and limited turnovers, and win!
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: wh on December 07, 2012, 05:31:30 PM
Early line from 2 services - NM by 9 1/2 and 10
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: StlVUFan on December 07, 2012, 05:53:23 PM
Quote from: 78crusader on December 07, 2012, 05:07:12 PM
OK so I began this thread by saying VU loses by 23.

My secret hope is that for once we come out with something other than a defeatist, we-can't-win attitude, play well, and hold NM to maybe a 6 or 8 point win.  Maybe that would give us something to build on going forward.

Paul
I'm as frustrated with constant failure against high profile, but not highly ranked teams on their home court as you are, but I really don't think you are enough of a mind-reader to discern what their attitude was going in to the game (neither am I, neither is anyone else).
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: valpopal on December 07, 2012, 06:18:05 PM
So far the team has followed my preseason (and December) predictions for every game, and I am afraid this weekend will not be different. New Mexico will win at home, and the week-long final exams break will be just what is needed to rest some folks and prepare for Dority's arrival on the scene.

Valparaiso    59
New Mexico  71
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: HC on December 07, 2012, 06:19:09 PM
Got my haircut today, thanks Matt.  That is pretty much a guaranteed Valpo Victory #itsonlyweirdifitdoesn'twork
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: mj on December 07, 2012, 07:33:20 PM
Not expecting much from the boys tomorrow night. Can't hit the 3 until the last few minutes of the game. Too many turnovers. Bad defense. I think we lose by 19.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: justducky on December 07, 2012, 08:38:36 PM
I think we play a bit better than at St. Louis but still lose by 10. Lets say 68-58 with a little better showing from Buggs and Capo (I hope).
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: crusadermoe on December 07, 2012, 09:55:45 PM
 I think we can play a LOT better than at SLU and still lose by 20+.   
The place will be rocking.    What other sports attractions are there on par with the Lobos for a 400 mile radius?
But I hope I'm wrong.    Stay within 10 points and it's a real upward move.


Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: Smj on December 07, 2012, 09:59:18 PM
I keep looking at this thread and I just can't give my prediction.....   good luck team - I'll be rooting go VU no mater what!   (just play well and have fun)
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: LaPorteAveApostle on December 07, 2012, 10:53:05 PM
Low-down on New Mexico...hate to say it, but they seem overrated.

Beating them is like beating Notre Dame in football, 1994-2011:  you get more credit than you actually deserved for it, which is great.

UNM (9-0):  #18 AP / #20 USA Today
Even the polls are hedging their bets a bit, however, as they're the second-lowest rated undefeated team in the polls (Wichita State the other).

KenPom:  UNM #35.    http://kenpom.com/ (http://kenpom.com/)
Sure, we're at #95; while the polls are meant to be a measure of how you've been, KenPom and advanced stats are meant to be predictive.  Thus:

MATCHUP
Luck...We're facing a luckier team than we are--but that's not hard.  UNM's "luck factor" rating places them at #112, in the top third--whereas ours puts us at #219, which should please Truth, but might seem high to those of us who have watched our travails on the road in horror.  "Luck" is an assessment of where a team should be based on how it played vs. its record.  We should be a little better than 6-2, which is both true and sad, hard and bitter, and they shouldn't be undefeated.  As Ken Pomeroy puts it himself (http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/ratings_explanation (http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/ratings_explanation))
Quotea team that is very lucky (positive numbers) will tend to be rated lower by my system than their record would suggest.
Hence, the prediction that they are overdue to come down and we to come up.  To back that up, RPIForecast says they have played well enough to be somewhere between 6-3 and 7-2.

Tempo...Controlling tempo will be key.  You don't need to run to be successful--undefeated Michigan is ranked #7 but #327 in tempo, whereas old friends Longwood are #14 in tempo but #346 of 347 DI teams.  UNM is #115, but we are #248.  If we can slow it down and play defense like we are capable of, we stand a much better shot than trying to go into the Pit Of Despair and play more up-tempo...proverbial coach-speak:  "we're playing right into their hands".

BOTTOM LINE:  RPIForecast gives us a 26% chance, which, better than nothing.

fact 1:  they only beat UIC by 7.
fact 2:  the other closest team to us they played, George Mason, they beat by 1.
fact 3:  they've only played one team better than those 2 (Connecticut).

WE CAN DO THIS PEOPLE.  PAGING TOMMY LASORDA.  NO NOT YOU TEX.  THE REAL DEAL.

BONUS STAT #1:  There's a 0.02% chance we go 11-15 the rest of the season. (RPIForecast)

BONUS STAT #2:  There's a 0.01% chance we WIN OUT!

Dumb and Dumber 'There's a Chance' (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA#)
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: wh on December 07, 2012, 11:45:34 PM
Fresh perspective on things.  Nice post.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: DMvalpo18 on December 07, 2012, 11:58:17 PM
LaPortAveApostle, Brilliant sir. I like it.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: MattCarter on December 08, 2012, 07:43:36 AM
Quote from: HC on December 07, 2012, 06:19:09 PMGot my haircut today, thanks Matt.  That is pretty much a guaranteed Valpo Victory #itsonlyweirdifitdoesn'twork
Short hair cuts create a more level surface to allow for better rotation of Rowdy's three point shot
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: Smj on December 08, 2012, 08:52:50 AM
I know we have a thread on watching games but i am wondering if anyone has any info on how we can watch today's game on TV?
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: LaPorteAveApostle on December 08, 2012, 09:01:40 AM
SMJ:  http://www.vipboxsports.eu/basketball/111965/1/valparaiso-vs-new-mexico--live-stream-online.html (http://www.vipboxsports.eu/basketball/111965/1/valparaiso-vs-new-mexico--live-stream-online.html)

wh, DMV:  thank you.

Matt, my long-lost singing buddy:  While I want to believe you, the kid still looks like this.
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Q0Kwh-GIDh0/SZgePmiPGmI/AAAAAAAAB0o/oIGzG5R7SoQ/s400/ryan+broek.jpg)

So.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: HC on December 08, 2012, 09:04:17 AM
Maybe is already been mentioned, New Mexico hasn't lost a home game in December in 8 years. Valpo is a 10 point dog today. This is a recipe for an upset.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: Cliston94 on December 08, 2012, 09:15:35 AM
I would love to see Valpo actually beat somebody it isn't supposed to beat, but until it actually happens again (and I think the last time was probably when VU beat Ohio State in, what, 2001-02?), I'll believe it when I see it. This program is a good, solid mid-major program, but it never built on the momentum of its Sweet 16 run the way other programs such as Gonzaga, Xavier and Butler have done. I'm not sure why, but it just hasn't happened. It's a chicken-and-egg thing, but Valpo is never going to be on that level if it can't start winning these kinds of games. VU just always seems to play badly against most of the top teams or "name" teams on its schedule. The game at Nebraska was a disgrace. Nebraska's slow and not especially talented, but VU came out and played without any kind of confidence, poise or discipline; I couldn't believe the bad shots, the airballs, the turnovers. It was awful. The Crusaders finally made a run at the end only when it was too late -- i.e., when the pressure was off, and they stopped being psyched out and just played basketball. And that, I think, is the key: they get on a Big Ten team's court, or up against a Top 20 team, and they make a bunch of mental mistakes they don't make against schools "on their level." It's a head game. When they can get past this psychological barrier they seem to have, they'll start winning some of these games. Until then -- New Mexico 77, Valpo 54.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: vuweathernerd on December 08, 2012, 11:23:13 AM
as much as i'd love to see a win, i don't see it happening on the road against a ranked opponent. not with how flat we've looked in recent games.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: MattCarter on December 08, 2012, 01:50:20 PM
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on December 08, 2012, 09:01:40 AMSMJ:  http://www.vipboxsports.eu/basketball/111965/1/valparaiso-vs-new-mexico--live-stream-online.html (http://www.vipboxsports.eu/basketball/111965/1/valparaiso-vs-new-mexico--live-stream-online.html) wh, DMV:  thank you. Matt, my long-lost singing buddy:  While I want to believe you, the kid still looks like this. (http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Q0Kwh-GIDh0/SZgePmiPGmI/AAAAAAAAB0o/oIGzG5R7SoQ/s400/ryan+broek.jpg) So.
But HC looks sharp!  Quit beein' so snooty.  Just like back in da day when ya got all the good solos.  Couldn't give a brother a chance at all.  I'd like to say we made fun of ya or had a clever nickname, alas we didn't plan ahead.   :thumbsup:
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: LaPorteAveApostle on December 08, 2012, 03:43:53 PM
Quote from: MattCarter on December 08, 2012, 01:50:20 PMI'd like to say we made fun of ya or had a clever nickname, alas we didn't plan ahead.

literally laughing :)

thanks bro.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: Smj on December 08, 2012, 08:25:52 PM
Turnovers....  Totally unforced....    (9 first half turnovers)
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: milanmiracle on December 08, 2012, 09:42:15 PM
Quote from: Smj on December 08, 2012, 08:25:52 PM
Turnovers....  Totally unforced....    (9 first half turnovers)

Well, from what I can tell Ryan is carrying the team as he has 13 of their 25 points.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: vu84v2 on December 08, 2012, 10:00:52 PM
3:45 left.  1 Offensive rebound and 23 turnovers.  To be a very good mid-major program, you have to be much much better than that.  This team looks lost on offense and has for many games this season.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: leftcoast on December 08, 2012, 10:09:44 PM
Perhaps one of you long time Valpo fans/posters could answer this question - why does Valpo always play to expectations?  The BB teams (past 10 years, or so) lose to the better out of conference teams they play and usually beat the mid-major teams they are expected to.  Rarely an upset in either the win or loss column. Am I off base here or is there a culture of mediocrity? Still living off the Sweet 16 run? Should fans be satisfied with simply being a competitive Horizon league team? 
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: truth219 on December 08, 2012, 10:10:45 PM
Valpo is a 1 trick pony
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: mj on December 08, 2012, 10:11:51 PM
23 turnover. Ben Boggs didn't even show up. This team is a mess right now. Thank goodness Ryan showed up or the score would have looked like the women's game against Louisville.

Something happened in the championship game against Detroit last year that's still with this team. Since then this team has played like crap. We need to turn this around soon.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: vu84v2 on December 08, 2012, 10:18:36 PM
leftcoast - I never think that Valpo's problems are a lack of effort.  Frankly, its always there.  I also don't think that they get psychologically overwhelmed when they play in a big road arena (no more than anyone else does). 

I think that the problem Valpo often has is that there are not enough options down low offensively and not enough overall offensive options.  Broekhoff is clearly a very good D1 player, but a good defensive team from a major conference takes him away (and he still went for 24 tonight).  Van Wijk is a nice mid-major player, but he can't match up with larger and more mobile big men - he goes from being a 15-20 ppg scorer to 8-10.  Having a point guard that can shoot would really help too, but the other guards don't create their own shot and they are not quick enough to beat guards and small forwards from major teams.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: KL31NY on December 08, 2012, 10:19:28 PM
Any idea who was guarding Williams? We somehow kept their leading scorer from making a field goal, he scored five points, all at the free throw line
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: truth219 on December 08, 2012, 10:27:40 PM
Effort alone doesn't get you anywhere, gotta have talent. I agree we've been lost since detroit ran us out of the arc.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: valpopal on December 08, 2012, 10:32:43 PM
Unbelievable: Valpo loses to a top-20 team in front of 16,000 fans on their court, and a few people here are panicked. The team stats are respectable, shooting about 50% from the field and 45% from the 3-point line, and rebounding was almost even. The difference was turnovers plus fouls, many of which resulted from the turnovers. I don't know what everyone expected, but I called it a 12-point loss in my prediction, which is what it would have been if Buggs hadn't given that last second foul. Valpo is not a top-20 team, but we will be in contention for the Horizon League championship, which is the main goal, and I don't expect to see 23 turnovers in conference games.

As I mentioned in my predictions, the week-long final exams break will be welcome, hopefully allowing players to get healthy and Dority to join the team. The span of games after finals and before the New Year will be a transition period preparing for conference play, and the real season begins with the first conference game in January. I expected nothing more nor less. In fact, the team's won-lost record at this point is exactly as I expected. Would I have liked a big upset? Sure. But realistically this team is focused on getting to the NCAA tournament through a regular season and conference tournament title, and they are still on track at this point.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: truth219 on December 08, 2012, 10:40:21 PM
Quote from: valpopal on December 08, 2012, 10:32:43 PM
Unbelievable: Valpo loses to a top-20 team in front of 16,000 fans on their court, and a few people here are panicked. The team stats are respectable, shooting about 50% from the field and 45% from the 3-point line, and rebounding was almost even. The difference was turnovers plus fouls, many of which resulted from the turnovers. I don't know what everyone expected, but I called it a 12-point loss in my prediction, which is what it would have been if Buggs hadn't given that last second foul. Valpo is not a top-20 team, but we will be in contention for the Horizon League championship, which is the main goal, and I don't expect to see 23 turnovers in conference games.

As I mentioned in my predictions, the week-long final exams break will be welcome, hopefully allowing players to get healthy and Dority to join the team. The span of games after finals and before the New Year will be a transition period preparing for conference play, and the real season begins with the first conference game in January. I expected nothing more nor less. In fact, the team's won-lost record at this point is exactly as I expected. Would I have liked a big upset? Sure. But realistically this team is focused on getting to the NCAA tournament through a regular season and conference tournament title, and they are still on track at this point.

You must like watching valpo play in the CBI tournament, because one loss in the conferance tourney and that's where we will be. Its not the fact that we lost to a ranked opponent. It the fact that we looked like a bad basketball team.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: HC on December 08, 2012, 10:51:19 PM
Not a terrible performance, except on the offensive end by everyone not named Broekhoff.  Over 20 turnovers is not acceptable regardless of who you are playing.  http://sectionee.blogspot.com/2012/12/game-wrap-up-new-mexico.html (http://sectionee.blogspot.com/2012/12/game-wrap-up-new-mexico.html)

I'm excited to see Dority play Saturday and hope that these next couple weeks this team will really mesh together and guys will figure out what the heck they are supposed to be doing on the court.  We need someone to score when Ryan is resting or triple teamed.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: 78crusader on December 08, 2012, 10:52:55 PM
Fellas, we're just not gonna have the kind of year we were expecting/hoping for.

Paul
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: HC on December 08, 2012, 10:57:41 PM
How about them UIC Flames  :o

Kevin has played ok, but when Ryan needs a breather there hasn't been anyone able to fill in for those few minutes.  Other teams don't have to keep looking around for that scorer.  Who's it going to be? Will hit a couple early shots tonight, Boggs didn't do anything offensively, Capo can't play many minutes yet, Coleman isn't the streaky shooter Jay was, and Rossi is MIA.  If they can't find the answer we will be looking up at a couple teams in the conference standings.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: Smj on December 08, 2012, 11:01:03 PM
Quote from: 78crusader on December 08, 2012, 10:52:55 PM
Fellas, we're just not gonna have the kind of year we were expecting/hoping for.

Paul

I am starting to accept this... But I would just like to see an upset.   

We just look lost out there.   This many seniors should not turnover the ball this much.   also, other players need to step up - Ryan's back has got to be getting sore from carrying the team.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: valpopal on December 08, 2012, 11:06:05 PM
Quote from: truth219 on December 08, 2012, 10:40:21 PM
Quote from: valpopal on December 08, 2012, 10:32:43 PM
Unbelievable: Valpo loses to a top-20 team in front of 16,000 fans on their court, and a few people here are panicked. The team stats are respectable, shooting about 50% from the field and 45% from the 3-point line, and rebounding was almost even. The difference was turnovers plus fouls, many of which resulted from the turnovers. I don't know what everyone expected, but I called it a 12-point loss in my prediction, which is what it would have been if Buggs hadn't given that last second foul. Valpo is not a top-20 team, but we will be in contention for the Horizon League championship, which is the main goal, and I don't expect to see 23 turnovers in conference games.

As I mentioned in my predictions, the week-long final exams break will be welcome, hopefully allowing players to get healthy and Dority to join the team. The span of games after finals and before the New Year will be a transition period preparing for conference play, and the real season begins with the first conference game in January. I expected nothing more nor less. In fact, the team's won-lost record at this point is exactly as I expected. Would I have liked a big upset? Sure. But realistically this team is focused on getting to the NCAA tournament through a regular season and conference tournament title, and they are still on track at this point.

You must like watching valpo play in the CBI tournament, because one loss in the conferance tourney and that's where we will be. Its not the fact that we lost to a ranked opponent. It the fact that we looked like a bad basketball team.

Exactly, one loss in the conference tournament and we don't go to the NCAA tournament, which would be true no matter what happened tonight or in any game this season! That is the realistic view. Despite a below par performance, Valpo shot better than New Mexico in field goals and 3-point shots, just about tied on rebounds, and tied on fast break points and second-chance points; but our weakness was on turnovers and foul calls, which created a 12-point difference, just about the final spread in the game. If we really were a bad basketball team, a top-20 team would have dominated all those stats.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: StlVUFan on December 08, 2012, 11:07:09 PM
Quote from: truth219 on December 08, 2012, 10:40:21 PM
Quote from: valpopal on December 08, 2012, 10:32:43 PM
Unbelievable: Valpo loses to a top-20 team in front of 16,000 fans on their court, and a few people here are panicked. The team stats are respectable, shooting about 50% from the field and 45% from the 3-point line, and rebounding was almost even. The difference was turnovers plus fouls, many of which resulted from the turnovers. I don't know what everyone expected, but I called it a 12-point loss in my prediction, which is what it would have been if Buggs hadn't given that last second foul. Valpo is not a top-20 team, but we will be in contention for the Horizon League championship, which is the main goal, and I don't expect to see 23 turnovers in conference games.

As I mentioned in my predictions, the week-long final exams break will be welcome, hopefully allowing players to get healthy and Dority to join the team. The span of games after finals and before the New Year will be a transition period preparing for conference play, and the real season begins with the first conference game in January. I expected nothing more nor less. In fact, the team's won-lost record at this point is exactly as I expected. Would I have liked a big upset? Sure. But realistically this team is focused on getting to the NCAA tournament through a regular season and conference tournament title, and they are still on track at this point.

You must like watching valpo play in the CBI tournament, because one loss in the conferance tourney and that's where we will be. Its not the fact that we lost to a ranked opponent. It the fact that we looked like a bad basketball team.

Exactly no one here, least of all valpopal, likes watching Valpo playing in the CBI tournament, or even the NIT tournament.  No one yearns more for an upset over a ranked team than me.  I take a backseat to absolutely no one.

If our way of dealing with such disappointment disappoints you, that's too bad.  Speaking only for myself, I'm too busy watching this season unfold (as I try to do every season) to feel embarrassed about it.  I heard every unforced error (I even saw one or two in the GIF-like video stream I saw of the 2nd half, but that's another story), and am happy with exactly none of them.

But, since I'm not the center of the Valpo universe, I see no usefulness in ranting about how awful we are, as if I'm owed something.  I prefer to enjoy whatever I can get from the sport of Mid-Major, under-the-radar College Basketball, seeing players trying to deal with a multitude of challenges that are thrust upon them, all while going to class and earning a degree, which at the Mid-Major level I do *not* believe is a farcical idea.  I thrill at the victories and feel anguish at the defeats, but I consider all of it a gift.

Sorry for the rant.  That's just me, but I'm with valpopal and therefore presumed to feel that retort was aimed at me as well.  I don't expect you to see it the same way, of course.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: milanmiracle on December 08, 2012, 11:10:08 PM
Quote from: truth219 on December 08, 2012, 10:40:21 PM
Quote from: valpopal on December 08, 2012, 10:32:43 PM
Unbelievable: Valpo loses to a top-20 team in front of 16,000 fans on their court, and a few people here are panicked. The team stats are respectable, shooting about 50% from the field and 45% from the 3-point line, and rebounding was almost even. The difference was turnovers plus fouls, many of which resulted from the turnovers. I don't know what everyone expected, but I called it a 12-point loss in my prediction, which is what it would have been if Buggs hadn't given that last second foul. Valpo is not a top-20 team, but we will be in contention for the Horizon League championship, which is the main goal, and I don't expect to see 23 turnovers in conference games.

As I mentioned in my predictions, the week-long final exams break will be welcome, hopefully allowing players to get healthy and Dority to join the team. The span of games after finals and before the New Year will be a transition period preparing for conference play, and the real season begins with the first conference game in January. I expected nothing more nor less. In fact, the team's won-lost record at this point is exactly as I expected. Would I have liked a big upset? Sure. But realistically this team is focused on getting to the NCAA tournament through a regular season and conference tournament title, and they are still on track at this point.

You must like watching valpo play in the CBI tournament, because one loss in the conferance tourney and that's where we will be. Its not the fact that we lost to a ranked opponent. It the fact that we looked like a bad basketball team.

Yep, I said as much before the season ever started...this entire year comes down to the HL tournament. Even then, who knows. You would think that winning the conference and playing the championship game on your home court would get you to the dance. We all know how that turned out.

This team is good enough to beat average to bad mid majors, but that's about it. The best win is over Kent State (RPI 149) and the lossess are vs. 79, 52, 5. They have managed to beat 241,308, 334, 281, 278 however. They're a team that beats who they are supposed to beat, and will put up a good record because of a crappy schedule but that's about it. There's only one more chance to beat a decent team (Murray State), and then the conference games begin. UIC has an RPI of 40, so that might help but...since they're a conference opponent, it's not really the same.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: milanmiracle on December 08, 2012, 11:12:29 PM
Quote from: Smj on December 08, 2012, 11:01:03 PM
Quote from: 78crusader on December 08, 2012, 10:52:55 PM
Fellas, we're just not gonna have the kind of year we were expecting/hoping for.

Paul

I am starting to accept this... But I would just like to see an upset.   

We just look lost out there.   This many seniors should not turnover the ball this much.   also, other players need to step up - Ryan's back has got to be getting sore from carrying the team.

My hat's off to Ryan for tonight. He hasn't played well in the last couple of "big" games, so it was nice to see him carry Valpo tonight. He didn't have any help, but maybe that will be the spark he needs for the HL tournament. He's going to have to carry them there too.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: milanmiracle on December 08, 2012, 11:14:12 PM
Quote from: valpopal on December 08, 2012, 11:06:05 PM
Quote from: truth219 on December 08, 2012, 10:40:21 PM
Quote from: valpopal on December 08, 2012, 10:32:43 PM
Unbelievable: Valpo loses to a top-20 team in front of 16,000 fans on their court, and a few people here are panicked. The team stats are respectable, shooting about 50% from the field and 45% from the 3-point line, and rebounding was almost even. The difference was turnovers plus fouls, many of which resulted from the turnovers. I don't know what everyone expected, but I called it a 12-point loss in my prediction, which is what it would have been if Buggs hadn't given that last second foul. Valpo is not a top-20 team, but we will be in contention for the Horizon League championship, which is the main goal, and I don't expect to see 23 turnovers in conference games.

As I mentioned in my predictions, the week-long final exams break will be welcome, hopefully allowing players to get healthy and Dority to join the team. The span of games after finals and before the New Year will be a transition period preparing for conference play, and the real season begins with the first conference game in January. I expected nothing more nor less. In fact, the team's won-lost record at this point is exactly as I expected. Would I have liked a big upset? Sure. But realistically this team is focused on getting to the NCAA tournament through a regular season and conference tournament title, and they are still on track at this point.

You must like watching valpo play in the CBI tournament, because one loss in the conferance tourney and that's where we will be. Its not the fact that we lost to a ranked opponent. It the fact that we looked like a bad basketball team.

Exactly, one loss in the conference tournament and we don't go to the NCAA tournament, which would be true no matter what happened tonight or in any game this season! That is the realistic view. Despite a below par performance, Valpo shot better than New Mexico in field goals and 3-point shots, just about tied on rebounds, and tied on fast break points and second-chance points; but our weakness was on turnovers and foul calls, which created a 12-point difference, just about the final spread in the game. If we really were a bad basketball team, a top-20 team would have dominated all those stats.

Wasn't it pointed out earlier that New Mexico doesn't blow people out?
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: valpopal on December 08, 2012, 11:14:33 PM
Quote from: 78crusader on December 08, 2012, 10:52:55 PM
Fellas, we're just not gonna have the kind of year we were expecting/hoping for.

Paul

Not sure what everyone else was expecting, but this is exactly what I expected up to this point—losses to Nebraska, St. Louis, and New Mexico on their courts, wins in the other games, and I am still hoping for a 10-4 record by January, though I'd be satisfied with 9-5, plus a conference title. So far, nothing is different from what I expected in my preseason predictions (except that Bobby had surgery and Ryan has Mono). 
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: valpopal on December 08, 2012, 11:18:02 PM
Quote from: milanmiracle on December 08, 2012, 11:14:12 PM
Quote from: valpopal on December 08, 2012, 11:06:05 PM
Quote from: truth219 on December 08, 2012, 10:40:21 PM
Quote from: valpopal on December 08, 2012, 10:32:43 PM
Unbelievable: Valpo loses to a top-20 team in front of 16,000 fans on their court, and a few people here are panicked. The team stats are respectable, shooting about 50% from the field and 45% from the 3-point line, and rebounding was almost even. The difference was turnovers plus fouls, many of which resulted from the turnovers. I don't know what everyone expected, but I called it a 12-point loss in my prediction, which is what it would have been if Buggs hadn't given that last second foul. Valpo is not a top-20 team, but we will be in contention for the Horizon League championship, which is the main goal, and I don't expect to see 23 turnovers in conference games.

As I mentioned in my predictions, the week-long final exams break will be welcome, hopefully allowing players to get healthy and Dority to join the team. The span of games after finals and before the New Year will be a transition period preparing for conference play, and the real season begins with the first conference game in January. I expected nothing more nor less. In fact, the team's won-lost record at this point is exactly as I expected. Would I have liked a big upset? Sure. But realistically this team is focused on getting to the NCAA tournament through a regular season and conference tournament title, and they are still on track at this point.

You must like watching valpo play in the CBI tournament, because one loss in the conferance tourney and that's where we will be. Its not the fact that we lost to a ranked opponent. It the fact that we looked like a bad basketball team.

Exactly, one loss in the conference tournament and we don't go to the NCAA tournament, which would be true no matter what happened tonight or in any game this season! That is the realistic view. Despite a below par performance, Valpo shot better than New Mexico in field goals and 3-point shots, just about tied on rebounds, and tied on fast break points and second-chance points; but our weakness was on turnovers and foul calls, which created a 12-point difference, just about the final spread in the game. If we really were a bad basketball team, a top-20 team would have dominated all those stats.

Wasn't it pointed out earlier that New Mexico doesn't blow people out?

Yes, which is why I pointed to dominating the "stats", as the quote you highlighted clearly states.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: Smj on December 08, 2012, 11:26:50 PM
Quote from: valpopal on December 08, 2012, 11:14:33 PM

Not sure what everyone else was expecting, but this is exactly what I expected up to this point—losses to Nebraska, St. Louis, and New Mexico on their courts, wins in the other games, and I am still hoping for a 10-4 record by January, though I'd be satisfied with 9-5, plus a conference title. So far, nothing is different from what I expected in my preseason predictions (except that Bobby had surgery and Ryan has Mono). 

I guess I just thought we would look a "bit" more polished as a team.   Lots of experience so I wanted to see us pull out a big win - like a bunch of other HL teams have.   Kent game was a bit of a fluke - great game to watch but we really got lucky.   If we had beat Nebraska I would probably feel different now but it is hard cuz I really want to see them do well ....   But I am DEFINITELY NOT embarrassed by this loss....
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: atkins on December 09, 2012, 12:11:18 AM
This game was actually closer than I had predicted.  I had Valpo losing by 20.  Valpo's shooting kept it in the game.  But giving up so many turnovers is just unacceptable for a senior-laden lineup.  I tend to agree with the posters who have expressed disappointment at Valpo's effort and progress this year.  They really aren't that much better than last year, and at times they have played much worse.  It is really perplexing how the team has appeared to regress.

We'll likely have a good Horizon season.  If we're "on" during the tournament, we will win it and get a 14 seed tops.  Then, we will be blown out in our first game.  Washed, rinsed, and repeated. 

I am looking forward to the new class of recruits, and hopefully, they will have the fire in their eyes.  They will, however, also need some help inside, and right now, we have very little to offer them. 

Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: rink on December 09, 2012, 02:14:43 AM
Ah, more irrelevance. Just five more years and we'll reach two straight decades of NCAA nothingness. Good times. Heaven forbid that a few devoted posters express a tiny bit of impatience. I guess we all deal with disappointment differently, but my god, it's been year after year after decade after year after year of our program failing to do anything nationally recognizable as impressive. We've had the opportunities. We've had the talent. At some point it gets to be insufferable, no? Unless your aspirations are only for the mild satisfactions of modest, anonymous successes.

It would be refreshing to hear all of Valpo nation rise up and exclaim, When are we going to bleeping take advantage of one of these opportunities to reclaim some attention?
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: truth219 on December 09, 2012, 07:38:17 AM
You have to have lowered expectations
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: StlVUFan on December 09, 2012, 10:06:14 AM
Quote from: rink on December 09, 2012, 02:14:43 AMHeaven forbid that a few devoted posters express a tiny bit of impatience.

Nobody is forbidding any such thing.  It was one of these few "devoted posters" you cited who disparaged those of us who deal with disappointment differently.

I have no problem with you feeling the way you do about it, but try to tell me what I'm "happy with" and I'm going to correct you.  That's all.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: valpopal on December 09, 2012, 10:13:54 AM
Quote from: truth219 on December 09, 2012, 07:38:17 AM
You have to have lowered expectations

You have to know the difference between "hopes" and "expectations."
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: VULB#62 on December 09, 2012, 11:19:27 AM
 :deadhorse:

Can we get past this and move on?  Missouri State is next -- they're 2-7 and have played an interesting mix of non names and big names.  Nuther road game.  We gonna finally snap out of this road rut? Maybe someone needs to start a fresh string.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: milanmiracle on December 09, 2012, 11:30:43 AM
Quote from: valpopal on December 09, 2012, 10:13:54 AM
Quote from: truth219 on December 09, 2012, 07:38:17 AM
You have to have lowered expectations

You have to know the difference between "hopes" and "expectations."

This is way off topic, but here goes...

We have people all over the map on here with hopes and expectations. There were posts earlier saying this could be the best Valpo team ever, and there are yet others who don't think they'll make the tournament. I think most people expect them to win 20 games, and finish in the top half of the conference. After that, opinions vary wildly.

My issue with this team is they're maddingly consistent. They beat who we think they can, and lose to those teams they should. There's no real hope for doing something great...like going to the Sweet 16.

That being said, sometimes I think we overlook the facts of Valpo basketball. They had one year of NCAA success and it took an Indiana Mr. Basketball and future NBA player to do it. Since then, it's been one and done (if at all) in the NCAA tourney and blowout losses to higher seeds. The last BCS win was over Washington in some made up post season tournament. Prior to that...who knows?

I hope they have a run in them like Butler, but I expect them to lose in the HL tournament and go to either the NIT or CBI. The only saving grace is the rest of the HL is pretty bad, so there's a chance for 1 or 2 seed. They coudn't possibly lose on their home floor twice, could they? In short, those are my hopes and expectations.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: Smj on December 09, 2012, 11:36:29 AM
Quote from: truth219 on December 09, 2012, 07:38:17 AM
You have to have lowered expectations

http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=bHq12lIYJME&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DbHq12lIYJME (http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=bHq12lIYJME&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DbHq12lIYJME)
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: crusaderjoe on December 09, 2012, 11:49:26 AM
I admit it--I thought this team could be one of the best VU has had over the last 25 years.  I'm not one to get overzealous about expectations, but man this year I honestly thought we were going to make some major noise.  I suppose it's still possible given that we are still waiting for some missing pieces, but after we laid an egg at Nebraska, didn't even show up in St. Louis, used a miracle to win in Toldeo and beat everyone else with an RPI in the 900s, I am not sure anymore.  With what this team has as far as experience, depth and BCS talent, a 9-5 record or hell even a 10-4 record is a salvage at best, IMO.  It's not a success--no way no how.  Maybe I have too high expectations this year.

I know historically VU doesn't play well on the road against ranked opponents.  But this year it seems that Valpo really curls up into the fetal position away from home.  How is that even possible with five seniors?  Is it the 2005-2006 season all over again? 
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: mj on December 09, 2012, 01:50:18 PM
Considering our success last year and the fact that we returned our entire team (mostly), I felt that we had a chance to make some noise this year. The problem is that this year's team is playing like the final 2 games of last season. It's the same stupid mistakes over and over again. 23 turnovers for a team that starts 5 seniors. Really? It's the stupid turnovers like not catching passes or letting the ball go between your hands that really start to add up. Who's to blame for this? The players or the coaches?
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: valpopal on December 09, 2012, 03:35:46 PM
Last year, there was lots of griping on the board about losses in December to IPFW, Oakland, and IUPUI; yet, the team managed to surpass expectations once the conference regular season began. This year, the exact same kind of comments are being expressed about losses to Nebraska, St. Louis, and New Mexico. Let's hope the team follows last year's pattern and plays better during the conference season (and adds a tournament championship win). In any case, at least this year's complaints are about losses to a higher grade of opponents. I guess that is a sure signal of improvement and increased respect that bring about higher hopes and greater expectations!  ;)
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: StlVUFan on December 09, 2012, 04:01:20 PM
Quote from: rink on December 09, 2012, 02:14:43 AMIt would be refreshing to hear all of Valpo nation rise up and exclaim, When are we going to bleeping take advantage of one of these opportunities to reclaim some attention?

If you listened to the postgame show last night, you heard exactly that from the only folks who matter: the coaching staff.  What impact the rest of us could have is beyond me.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: vu72 on December 09, 2012, 04:42:27 PM
Quote from: 78crusader on December 07, 2012, 05:07:12 PM
OK so I began this thread by saying VU loses by 23.

My secret hope is that for once we come out with something other than a defeatist, we-can't-win attitude, play well, and hold NM to maybe a 6 or 8 point win.  Maybe that would give us something to build on going forward.

Paul

So, did you watch the game?  I did.  We were down by 3 at half and had it within 10 before having to foul to try to catch up.  Hardly a 23 point (or bigger as predicted by others).

These are very tough games all played on the road.  Anyone will tell you how difficult it is to win on the road particularly against top 20 teams.  We hung with these guys and I could see much better team play that what I saw against Nebraska or SLU.  We will get better the more we pklay together and add Dority.
No one we play this year will blow us out.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: LaPorteAveApostle on December 09, 2012, 08:09:14 PM
Quote from: Smj on December 09, 2012, 11:36:29 AMhttp://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=bHq12lIYJME&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DbHq12lIYJME
EXACTLY what I was thinking, smj.  well-played.

Quote from: mj on December 09, 2012, 01:50:18 PMConsidering our success last year and the fact that we returned our entire team (mostly), I felt that we had a chance to make some noise this year.
I think that this is at the heart of every VU fans' regret right now.  We just expected so much for this year, especially since last year exceeded expectations, it was only natural guardedly optimistic to think "Butler 2010", but

Quote from: valpopal on December 09, 2012, 03:35:46 PMLast year, there was lots of griping on the board about losses in December to IPFW, Oakland, and IUPUI; yet, the team managed to surpass expectations once the conference regular season began. This year, the exact same kind of comments are being expressed about losses to Nebraska, St. Louis, and New Mexico.
This is true.  And for everyone predicting a conference tourney loss, well, I have to ask:  have you SEEN the rest of this conference?

Yeah, I saw you, UIC.  And I ain't skeered.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: EddieCabot on December 09, 2012, 10:13:02 PM

Game story from the Post Trib ... http://posttrib.suntimes.com/sports/16894469-556/valparaiso-puts-up-a-fight-but-turnovers-prove-costly-against-new-mexico.html (http://posttrib.suntimes.com/sports/16894469-556/valparaiso-puts-up-a-fight-but-turnovers-prove-costly-against-new-mexico.html) .

Bryce doesn't seem too upset, points out how good the opponent was and states the team is getting better.  He's not nearly as panicked as several posters are.  The story also mentions the "challenging non-conference schedule" Valpo is facing.  That was a good move by Bryce, IMO ... by loading up the non-con schedule, he gave his team a shot to build an at-large resume and earn a top-25 ranking.  If things didn't work out (due to unknowns like Capobianco's surgery and Broekhoff's illness), he still has given his team some great experience and they will be better when the league season rolls around.

On another note, it looks like the NWI just used an AP game story ... does Oren not cover road games?
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: valporun on December 09, 2012, 10:30:58 PM
Paul might have had to cover high school games in the area. New Mexico is a bit of a trek for the NWI Times to have to pay the bill for.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: milanmiracle on December 09, 2012, 10:51:49 PM
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on December 09, 2012, 08:09:14 PM
This is true.  And for everyone predicting a conference tourney loss, well, I have to ask:  have you SEEN the rest of this conference?

Yeah, I saw you, UIC.  And I ain't skeered.

Yea, and I also saw a disfunctional Detroit team come into Valpo and kick the tar out of them in the HL championship game too. It's not so much about the other teams as it is about Valpo.

UIC has demonstrated the ability to beat at least one decent team, while Valpo has not. Detroit still has McCallum, and while we don't care for him much, he can still get hot and take over a game. There's nobody on this roster who can guard him either. Right now UIC has 4 wins over the RPI top 200, including beating Northwestern. Valpo on the other hand has 1 win over the top 200 (Kent State).  It's a long season, and until Dority plays I am holding out hope (yes, this is hopeful, haha). I suspect that Valpo will end up with 20+ wins, but will they win when it matters. Nothing they have done so far demonstrates they can beat good/decent teams.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: wh on December 09, 2012, 11:07:02 PM
"I knew this was going to be a grind tonight and I thought our guys did a tremendous job in each twenty minutes guarding," New Mexico coach Steve Alford said. "We knew that they would probably slow things down a little bit which is fine. We have been able to play versatile styles. I really appreciate the effort by our guys."

Read more here: http://www.thenewstribune.com/2012/12/08/2396043/recap-new-mexico-vs-valparaiso.html#storylink=cpy (http://www.thenewstribune.com/2012/12/08/2396043/recap-new-mexico-vs-valparaiso.html#storylink=cpy)

Why in the world would we think we need to slow the game down against NM, as if we're playing top ranked Duke at the United Center (in whatever year that was).  These guys barely beat Indiana State and UIC, and I doubt they did anything "gimmicky."  So what did we get for what we were trying to do?  Working deep into the shot clock in far too many possessions leading to steals, illegal picks, moving screens, jump balls, balls thrown out of bounds, players stepping out of bounds, and forced shots at the end of the shot clock.  We had a TO% (TO's/Possessions) of 35.4, higher than any game in the past 2 seasons.  More than 1 in every 3 trips down the court resulting in a turnover, and yet Bryce is pleased that they're getting better.  Could the players possibly believe that, knowing they're throwing the ball away a third of the time? 

Obviously, there are a lot more positives going on than I have the ability to understand as a fan.   
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: valporun on December 10, 2012, 09:58:48 AM
It's possible that compared to some of the styles New Mexico played in their first 9 games of the season, teams were trying to speed up the game in a way they couldn't do, so instead of speeding it up, we took the opposite approach by toning it down a smidge, and it beat us rather than New Mexico. Not sure what positives were shown, as I don't have the same video/film capabilities that Bryce and the coaching staff do, but I'd love to be able to go thru our games, and see what good and bad happened in each game to get an idea of what needs to be worked on, besides our guards creating opportunities for themselves to have shots, create openings, and do things with the ball that make them look like productive guards, and not "guys in jerseys looking clueless".
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: agibson on December 10, 2012, 10:44:17 AM
Quote from: EddieCabot on December 09, 2012, 10:13:02 PMOn another note, it looks like the NWI just used an AP game story ... does Oren not cover road games?

Sometimes they'll run a piece with a "Staff" by line or some such.  Presumably that means it's collaborative.  But, it's also seemed like what they do if noone's actually present at the game - someone watches on video (or even just audio?), maybe phones up a coach or a player or three, and writes a piece.

I wonder if the Post Tribune quotes from Bryce came from the post-game press conference, or from a phone call?  Were they present in person?
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: Pgmado on December 10, 2012, 11:30:42 AM
I was not at the New Mexico game and the paper ran the wire copy. With the late start there was no way to get the story in the paper.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: vu84v2 on December 10, 2012, 11:38:43 AM
It is not that I am surprised that Valpo lost to New Mexico (and also Saint Louis).  It is just the way that they are playing.  The style of both games seems to have been, "long possessions, slow down the game, maybe we can keep it close and get some breaks in the end".  This is not what I would expect from what should be a very good mid-major team.  The team should have consistent offensive flow and always have multiple options to score on the floor - resulting in good shots on a majority of possessions. 

I don't think that the attitude of the individuals is bad (I am sure that it is good), but the team attitude and how it is translating to strategy on the floor will not result in anything special this year.  Not sure that it can be changed at this point, but teams do get better as the season rolls on towards March.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: agibson on December 10, 2012, 12:26:54 PM
I don't know that our pace was anything special against New Mexico - we seem to generally be aiming for a lot of passing and a good shot, normally deep into the shot clock.

I don't _quite_ trust Whellistone's statistics here (he seems to be mishandling to the OT game against Kent?).  But, he claims that our average pace is 65.9 possessions (241st in the country) while New Mexico's is a hair faster at 67.4 (169th in the country).  We've been extraordinarily steady, with the Georgia Southern game (61 possessions) being maybe the only slight outlier.

New Mexico's mixed it up a bit more playing fast against Davidson, Portland, Mercer (76, 78, 77 possessions) and slow against UConn, USC (61, 62).  We were just a little below average for them.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: 78crusader on December 10, 2012, 02:48:09 PM
I for one am down on this team.  I bought into the pre-season hype.  I started to think some of our D1 transfers were Karl Malone and Larry Bird.

I will admit that valporun and other "positive thinkers" have raised some good points.  For instance, these games are, after all, tough road games.  And, as pointed out, last year we had a rough December before righting the ship. 

Having said that, what I take away from these positive posts is (1) these are tough games, so it's no surprise if we lose them, and (2) the Horizon League is a lousy league this year, so don't worry, we'll win the conference and get into the NCAAs no matter what happens this month.

There are a lot of responses to make.  For starters, sure these are tough games -- but do we really have to lose ALL of them?  As pointed out by other posters, can't we ever beat a good team, a BCS team, a "name" team, whatever you want to call it?  Or are we simply content in beating up the likes of IPFW and Northern Illinois? It has been YEARS since we beat a BCS team -- Washington, in some made-up, no-one-cares tournament.  As for the HL, I'd say we have less than a 50/50 shot at this moment of winning the league.  And if we do, then what?  A #15 or even a #16 seed, with an invitation to suffer a 40 or 50 point loss to IU/Duke/Louisville/Ohio State.  How in the world does that advance VU basketball?

This weekend we play at Missouri State, a 2-7 club that has only beaten Philander Smith and Malone (I'm not making this up).  ORU beat them by 20.  If Mo State doesn't finish last in the Mo Valley, they'll finish 9th.  This is a game that we should win, no excuses.  We'll see.  If we lose this game, I say grab the life jackets 'cause this is a sinking ship.

Paul

Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: crusadermoe on December 10, 2012, 03:19:48 PM
I will just summarize my frustration briefly.

Last year started even more poorly but it was a total re-build and Bryce was a first year coach.  That made sense.

This year we had so many returning players and lost just Richie and Jay Harris.   All the hype said that Bobby C. and Coleman would be adequate or better.

Essentially we have the same players.   They are one year older and stronger, but they are worse in performance?   
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: justducky on December 10, 2012, 04:11:10 PM
Quote from: milanmiracle on December 09, 2012, 11:30:43 AMWe have people all over the map on here with hopes and expectations. There were posts earlier saying this could be the best Valpo team ever, and there are yet others who don't think they'll make the tournament. I think most people expect them to win 20 games, and finish in the top half of the conference. After that, opinions vary wildly.
We have a long way to go but  you can still count me in that first group that believes it could all come together for some great things. The overall underperformance (senior turnovers?) so far leaves me just as baffled as the rest of you, but if we can find ways to win at Missouri St and Oakland while introducing Dority to the mix we may someday be able to look back at the last 10 days and see it as the turning point.

So my white flag will remain in my back pocket until I can see all of the puzzle pieces, healthy and fully integrated; aligned on the floor under the Bryce Drew master plan. My hopes and expectations are that he can take this talented, deep, versatile, senior-led group and figure out ways to get some big wins.

If on the other hand we continue to sputter and stall and you see me start to waiver on my conviction then it might be advisable to start heading to the door early so that you don't get caught-up in a mad stampede for the exits.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: agibson on December 10, 2012, 04:12:04 PM
Quote from: crusadermoe on December 10, 2012, 03:19:48 PMThey are one year older and stronger, but they are worse in performance?

What's your response to the "optimist" position that we're _not_ any worse than we were last December?
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: covufan on December 10, 2012, 04:29:49 PM
Quote from: valpopal on December 08, 2012, 11:14:33 PM
Quote from: 78crusader on December 08, 2012, 10:52:55 PM
Fellas, we're just not gonna have the kind of year we were expecting/hoping for.

Paul

Not sure what everyone else was expecting, but this is exactly what I expected up to this point—losses to Nebraska, St. Louis, and New Mexico on their courts, wins in the other games, and I am still hoping for a 10-4 record by January, though I'd be satisfied with 9-5, plus a conference title. So far, nothing is different from what I expected in my preseason predictions (except that Bobby had surgery and Ryan has Mono). 
Not sure what others were expecting either.  Of our out of conference road schedule (7 games), the early season predictions had us as underdogs in each game.  I was expecting 2-3 wins, and hoping for a fourth (Nebraska).  We could still get three out of those 7 games, and maybe get some luck with Murray St.  A 10-4 record before HL play is what I expected, and still a very real possibility.  This team will need to develop, just as last season's did during HL play.  I fully expect for this team to compete for the HL championship, and hope for a better result in the HL tournament. 

What expectations did others have?  A perfect season?
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: milanmiracle on December 10, 2012, 05:16:24 PM
Quote from: covufan on December 10, 2012, 04:29:49 PM
Quote from: valpopal on December 08, 2012, 11:14:33 PM
Quote from: 78crusader on December 08, 2012, 10:52:55 PM
Fellas, we're just not gonna have the kind of year we were expecting/hoping for.

Paul

Not sure what everyone else was expecting, but this is exactly what I expected up to this point—losses to Nebraska, St. Louis, and New Mexico on their courts, wins in the other games, and I am still hoping for a 10-4 record by January, though I'd be satisfied with 9-5, plus a conference title. So far, nothing is different from what I expected in my preseason predictions (except that Bobby had surgery and Ryan has Mono). 
Not sure what others were expecting either.  Of our out of conference road schedule (7 games), the early season predictions had us as underdogs in each game.  I was expecting 2-3 wins, and hoping for a fourth (Nebraska).  We could still get three out of those 7 games, and maybe get some luck with Murray St.  A 10-4 record before HL play is what I expected, and still a very real possibility.  This team will need to develop, just as last season's did during HL play.  I fully expect for this team to compete for the HL championship, and hope for a better result in the HL tournament. 

What expectations did others have?  A perfect season?

I am not terribly surprised by the results, but I guess I was hoping for an "upset" or two. The record is pretty much what I figured it would be at this point but since everybody not named Nebraska, New Mexico, Murray State and St. Louis is craptastic how can anybody be impressed? How bad are the teams on this schedule? Of the teams Valpo beat they have an average RPI of 277. That's counting Kent State at 153 in that average. If you pull out Kent St  the average RPI is 301. Of course they have a good record, they're playing BAD teams. How about the outstanding records of 14-36 for the teams Valpo beat. Again take out Kent State and it's 9-31. Not exactly a "tough" out of conference schedule now is it?
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: EddieCabot on December 10, 2012, 09:24:12 PM
Quote from: wh on December 09, 2012, 11:07:02 PM
"I knew this was going to be a grind tonight and I thought our guys did a tremendous job in each twenty minutes guarding," New Mexico coach Steve Alford said. "We knew that they would probably slow things down a little bit which is fine. We have been able to play versatile styles. I really appreciate the effort by our guys."

Read more here: http://www.thenewstribune.com/2012/12/08/2396043/recap-new-mexico-vs-valparaiso.html#storylink=cpy (http://www.thenewstribune.com/2012/12/08/2396043/recap-new-mexico-vs-valparaiso.html#storylink=cpy)

Why in the world would we think we need to slow the game down against NM, as if we're playing top ranked Duke at the United Center (in whatever year that was).  These guys barely beat Indiana State and UIC, and I doubt they did anything "gimmicky."  So what did we get for what we were trying to do?  Working deep into the shot clock in far too many possessions leading to steals, illegal picks, moving screens, jump balls, balls thrown out of bounds, players stepping out of bounds, and forced shots at the end of the shot clock.  We had a TO% (TO's/Possessions) of 35.4, higher than any game in the past 2 seasons.  More than 1 in every 3 trips down the court resulting in a turnover, and yet Bryce is pleased that they're getting better.  Could the players possibly believe that, knowing they're throwing the ball away a third of the time? 

Obviously, there are a lot more positives going on than I have the ability to understand as a fan.

I admit I couldn't watch the game, but I think wh makes a lot of valid points here.  It seems like Buggs, Kenney and Coleman all excel in transition, so it does seem strange that Valpo would intentionally slow the tempo.  Also, if the plan was to slow the game down, why wouldn't Bryce utilize his bigger lineups more?  Wouldn't they be more effective in a half court game?  KVW, Capobianco and Fernandez got just 45 minutes combined.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: LaPorteAveApostle on December 10, 2012, 09:47:55 PM
Quote from: EddieCabot on December 10, 2012, 09:24:12 PMKVW, Capobianco and Fernandez got just 45 minutes combined.

Rhymes with "bowel trouble"
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: Smj on December 11, 2012, 12:29:19 AM
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on December 10, 2012, 09:47:55 PM
Rhymes with "bowel trouble"

[sarc]
Not sure about the rhyming rules but I don't think it works when the word "trouble" is both in the result and the original...    How about "bowel stubble" or "towel rubble" or "too many f@&$ing fouls" (sorry gave it away with the last one)
[/sarc]
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: KL31NY on December 11, 2012, 10:52:30 AM
Ryan Broekhoff between the legs assist (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agt4ldQ3RRE#)
Sick! (pun definitely intended, take care Rowdy!)

Other observations based on the audio on the video:

Why is it not synced up? It's almost a full second ahead of the video
How can you consider the lane "the painted area" if there is no color?
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: chef on December 11, 2012, 11:24:49 AM
You know what's almost as great as the play...Ryan's reaction. He just sprints back on defense. There's no "look at me, I just made the best play of the season."
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: covufan on December 11, 2012, 01:22:47 PM
Quote from: EddieCabot on December 10, 2012, 09:24:12 PMKVW, Capobianco and Fernandez got just 45 minutes combined.
And you would expect how many???

From the team stats, these three average 49 minutes combined, and you think 45 is some great deviation from 49???  Are you expecting 120 minutes combined?
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: LaPorteAveApostle on December 11, 2012, 01:37:28 PM
Quote from: covufan on December 11, 2012, 01:22:47 PMFrom the team stats, these three average 49 minutes combined

He's right.  49.4, to be exact: I have
Capo at 13.8;
Vashil at 12.4;
KVW at 23.2.

Furthermore, KVW fouled out at 5:01; Capo at 9:25.  If they hadn't, they'd have at least their season average (bearing in mind that they are sharing minutes in the frontcourt anyway, but the foul trouble meant no overlapping). 

Thus, they normally overlap one another about 10 min a game; this game 5.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: EddieCabot on December 11, 2012, 04:51:17 PM
Quote from: covufan on December 11, 2012, 01:22:47 PM
Quote from: EddieCabot on December 10, 2012, 09:24:12 PMKVW, Capobianco and Fernandez got just 45 minutes combined.
And you would expect how many???

From the team stats, these three average 49 minutes combined, and you think 45 is some great deviation from 49???  Are you expecting 120 minutes combined?

It just seemed like many people were expecting Valpo to use a bigger lineup once Capobianco was back, especially against teams with the size of New Mexico.  I guess they (and me) were wrong.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: valpopal on December 11, 2012, 05:30:12 PM
Quote from: EddieCabot on December 11, 2012, 04:51:17 PM
Quote from: covufan on December 11, 2012, 01:22:47 PM
Quote from: EddieCabot on December 10, 2012, 09:24:12 PMKVW, Capobianco and Fernandez got just 45 minutes combined.
And you would expect how many???

From the team stats, these three average 49 minutes combined, and you think 45 is some great deviation from 49???  Are you expecting 120 minutes combined?

It just seemed like many people were expecting Valpo to use a bigger lineup once Capobianco was back, especially against teams with the size of New Mexico.  I guess they (and me) were wrong.

Bobby is not full strength yet. If we talk in generalizations, I am hoping that when he is fully healthy, Bobby and Kevin will get about 24 minutes each, and Vashil will get about 12 minutes: total of 60 minutes. Of course, that would vary based upon the lineup of the opponent and any foul trouble during the game.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: truth219 on December 11, 2012, 05:53:52 PM
When is bobby going to be 100% to you.
Title: Re: 12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico
Post by: LaPorteAveApostle on December 11, 2012, 06:33:07 PM
[snarc] Assuming that's a question, [/snarc] I don't think it's relevant when any of us think he's "ready".  A hernia is a serious injury to your core, to the extent that people are still supposing it's an issue for Alex Rossi over twenty-two months after his surgery.

I know you seem anxious to judge Capo without accepting any excuses, but to me, that's a pretty good one.


Also, as far as two big men, this analysis from MGoBlog on UM BBall seemed, well, vaguely familiar:
QuotePlaying two posts has not really been a good idea when you've got a 6'6" guy who can get up and shoot threes at the four, so [Coach Beilein] hasn't done it.