With each passing day, the likelihood increases that we are going to end up in a tie for first with GB at 13-3. Of course, we may also finish 14-2, and in that case this thread can be purged (Woooo)!
But in the event of the 13-3 tie, both Valpo and GB will have losses to each other on the road, at Cleveland State, and at Oakland (who paid those refs anyway? Kampe? :-X Couldn't have cost much more than that toupee. ::))
Therefore, the cascading tiebreaker rules will not resolve the tie, and we go to RPI.
Horizon League specifies that the RPI tiebreaker is per the College Basketball News RPI, an "outlier" in terms of RPI separation between GB and Valpo.
Anyone have any more details around which RPI we should be keeping an eye on in the next two weeks?
1. College Basketball News RPI absolutely exists. It's at this site: http://rpiratings.com/ (http://rpiratings.com/) A quick google search would have told you that.
2. Live RPI (http://www.rpiforecast.com/live-rpi.html) and the CBN RPI seem to be running the same formula nowadays. If you want you can follow that and even plug in every scenario to your hearts desire.
3. There's a 0% chance of us catching Green Bay's RPI. We're 20 slots back of them and to make up that much ground with 3 games left for just about every OOC opponent left is impossible.
So if there's no chance of reaching GB's RPI, I guess we have to like win the next three games or something.
Kyle -
Good catch - I was looking for College Basketball News RPI, not "Collegiate". Still, that's a really obscure RPI to use for a tiebreaker - too bad.
I don't know where you're getting 20 spots from - even using your link it's 48 vs. 61. We have road games at Detroit and Cle St. remaining, while GB has home games and goes to UIC.
ESPN RPI: GB 54, Valpo 64
KenPom: GB 62, Valpo 63
Sagarin: GB 65, Valpo 66
Too bad Horizon league doesn't use an RPI average, because surely (considering remaining schedule) we will be ahead in all of the three I listed above, if both teams are 13-3. The Horizon League will then be in the awkward position of resolving the tie using their obscure RPI site, when all others potentially disagree.
The HL would prefer it be in GB just based on arena size. The Resch Center can hold almost 10000 people, which is twice as big as the ARC. Thus there is more money to be made. It would be unfortunate if it came down to RPI rankings which is very subjective.
And by the way... What about head-to-head points?
That's a ridiculous item to ignore if you're going to determine home floor based on RPI instead.
Quote from: WiscoCrusader on February 19, 2015, 11:39:43 AM
Kyle -
Good catch - I was looking for College Basketball News RPI, not "Collegiate". Still, that's a really obscure RPI to use for a tiebreaker - too bad.
I don't know where you're getting 20 spots from - even using your link it's 48 vs. 61. We have road games at Detroit and Cle St. remaining, while GB has home games and goes to UIC.
ESPN RPI: GB 54, Valpo 64
KenPom: GB 62, Valpo 63
Sagarin: GB 65, Valpo 66
Too bad Horizon league doesn't use an RPI average, because surely (considering remaining schedule) we will be ahead in all of the three I listed above, if both teams are 13-3. The Horizon League will then be in the awkward position of resolving the tie using their obscure RPI site, when all others potentially disagree.
RPI is RPI. ESPN has their BPI, which is not based on the RPI formula. KenPom and Sagarin have their own formulas as well. For an average of the various ranking/rating systems, go to Massey comparison:
http://www.masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm (http://www.masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm)
He only updates his comparison rankings once a week, after the weekend games.
Collegiate Basketball News was the first publication to publicly publish RPI figures - hardly obscure. Perhaps, less relevant in this day and age with the information so widely available on the Internet, but they were putting the information out there pre-Internet days.
Quote from: StlVUFan on February 16, 2015, 12:44:38 PM
My tiebreaker spreadsheet is locked and loaded, ready for bear ... except: still waiting word on just how much Milwaukee will be involved in tie-breaker procedures. Seems fairly certain they are to be used as a common opponent, should tiebreaker rule 3 be needed, but they may also complicate 3-way ties that they ostensibly participate in.
I was told there will be something from the HL office on this today.
Kyle is right about CSU hosting if they win out, as far as I can tell, but I don't know about GB winning out (and Valpo losing at least once).
I'm sure StlVUFan will be posting info after this weekends games.
A nice history of CBN and RPI from their website:
About Collegiate Basketball News and the RPI
Collegiate Basketball News Company was established in 1991 by Jim Sukup to bring Big Ten college basketball fans a Big Ten basketball newsletter called Collegiate Basketball News. The newsletter carried the latest in what was happening around the Big Ten along with a generous helping of statistics. The statistics included full box scores for all Big Ten games played, expanded Big Ten standings, full player-by-player team statistics, conference team and conference individual statistics, and an abbreviated version of the Rating Percentage Index (RPI). The RPI portion of the newsletter was an immediate hit, and the first issue of The RPI Report was dated January 6, 1992. Collegiate Basketball News continued through the 1992-93 season, when efforts were put into producing an expanded version of The RPI Report.
Prior to the publication of the men's RPI in Collegiate Basketball News and The RPI Report during the 1991-92 season, the term Rating Percentage Index and acronym RPI were largely unknown to the general public and to many administrators at NCAA Division I schools because the RPI ratings were not distributed to NCAA member institutions. In fact, the NCAA did not even submit the RPI ratings to Division I conferences or independent institutions until 1992 (with a notable exception in 1986). The NCAA now distributes men's and women's RPI data weekly to the public in a bare-bones manner, and the full suite of RPI information to the conferences and independent schools, after the completion of the full college basketball season. Distribution was limited prior to 2005 because the NCAA keeps the RPI data confidential within the committees that use the RPI for help with NCAA tournament selection and seeding purposes.
Publication of the RPI by CBN in 1992 created a cult following among college basketball fans throughout the land, and it is now the most widely followed college basketball computer rating system in the country. The RPI is also used by the NCAA tournament selection committees for baseball (first used in 1988), women's volleyball (1992), softball (1996), men's and women's soccer (1997), and field hockey (1998).
CBN's rpiratings.com web site was established 1997 to bring college basketball fans and CBN subscribers the most up-to-date RPI information available anywhere and to pass along additional information about Division I college basketball that is unavailable elsewhere. The RPI is the best, most informative and most widely followed college basketball computer rating system in the country, and CBN is pleased to bring this information to both our loyal The RPI Report and The Women's RPI Report subscribers, and to others that visit our free content areas.
The 2009-10 college basketball season was the 16th consecutive year that CBN made the men's RPI ratings available to the Associated Press for nationwide distribution on the AP wire and the 13th consecutive season for the women. Also, the 2014-15 season is the 22nd consecutive year that CBN provided the Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook with RPI data.
Followers of college hoops have long known that there was no consistent and reliable source to turn to for access to the complete men's and women's Division I conference standings. Thankfully, this is no longer a problem. CBN provides complete men's and women's conference standings that are updated daily starting in late November. You will no longer need to hunt down the complete standings from many different sources that contain outdated or incorrect information. There is no need to surf through 32 different pages to get the complete conference standings. The CBN men's and women's standings are listed alphabetically by conference. Do you believe that you have spotted an error in the CBN men's or women's standings? If CBN verifies an error, we'll send you a complimentary issue of either the Men's or Women's Report!
The National Invitation Tournament (NIT) used the resources of CBN's RPI for the 13 years prior to its takeover in 2005-06 by the NCAA to help NIT committee members select teams for the nation's oldest men's Division I post-season tournament. The NIT also used the men's schedules compiled by CBN to help in their evaluation of prospective tournament teams. Also, the Women's National Invitation Tournament (WNIT) has used The Women's RPI Report since the 1998-99 season to help select teams for the post-season WNIT.
http://rpiratings.com/AboutCBN.php (http://rpiratings.com/AboutCBN.php)
An RPI tie-breaker situation requires us to lose another game, which would lower our RPI another 10 -20 places, which renders the concern about RPI sources meaningless.
We can afford to lose 1 more game, as long as we beat Cleveland State we will host the tournament. 13-3 with a sweep of CSU gives us the nod regardless if we're tied with them or Green Bay.
You all seem to just be assuming a win at Detroit on Wednesday night.
I know VU has had success playing there over the years, but I would not say that game is a gimme by any means.
One day at a time, just like Bryce and the players have been preaching. One day at a time.
We win on senior night against an injured wsu team.
We have detroit and CSU left. No matter the outcome of the Detroit game, we beat CSU and meaning we win the HL for the 3rd time in 4 seasons. Do we commit and make CSU a must win game forcing the Detroit game as a practice or warm up.
Quote from: Valpo89 on February 19, 2015, 03:00:07 PM
You all seem to just be assuming a win at Detroit on Wednesday night.
I know VU has had success playing there over the years, but I would not say that game is a gimme by any means.
One day at a time, just like Bryce and the players have been preaching. One day at a time.
:clap: :clap:
Valpo has proven (not this team, though) that there are no gimme games in the HL.
Before anyone advocates using a metric other than RPI, the other rating systems wouldn't work because they are predictive ratings. Losing by 1 is better than losing by 40, but in reality a loss is a loss. BPI factors for injured players, etc. We also know the formula for RPI. We don't for these other ones. Also using point differential would be dumb because it would encourage teams to play starters the whole game when blowing out an opponent. Nobody wants to see teams taking 3s when UIC or YSU already have given up.
So, Valpo 14-2 is easy. Winning out, including @CSU, is obviously ideal.
If Valpo finishes 13-3 then wining at CSU is pretty important. That sweep would be the tiebreaker over GB, if needed. But, we could drop one to Detroit or WSU.
If we're 13-3 with the loss coming at CSU it's tougher. We'd need the winner of CSU @ GB to lose a game.
What's more likely, CSU loses at Milwaukee? Or GB loses either to oakland or at UIC?
Tough call. Maybe CSU losing at UMW? Either way, it may be that which of those scenarios is more likely determines our rooting interest on Friday.
I sort of hate to think about the 12-4 scenarios. Maybe there are still reasonablen scenarios where we host? But obviously it takes help. And it'd probably help if we beat CSU, somehow losing both to milwaukee and at Detroit.
Here's one interesting scenario, but no good for us: Oakland wins out. GB beats CSU. We lose at CSU and one other. Does that put all four of us at 12-4 with I guess oaklands sweep of GB giving them the tie breaker: 4-2 in the head-to-head games.
I'm not sure I buy the premise, "RPI is RPI". For example, realtimerpi has had Valpo ahead of GB most of the season, and we are currently ahead by about 15 spots.
Is realtimerpi using "fake" RPI math?
To summarize the thread, is the Horizon League really saying that because GB played Wisconsin (and got crushed) and we didn't, that makes GB more deserving to be the conference champions in the event of an unresolvable tie? That's just sad... We lost by 1 at GB and won by 6 at home.
Detroit is 2-8 in their last 10 HL games. One of those wins came in overtime and the other game came on a desperation 3. If we are the team we think we are, we need to win that game and lock up the double bye. Only thing that really concerns me is that it is their senior night, so they may have a bigger crowd than usual.
Speaking of senior nights, is there any other team in the league that has to be on the road for 2 of them?
Side Note: Carter is more important for the CSU game than the Detroit game. Carter is going to need to be out there as much as humanly possible against CSU. Lean on Nickerson against detroit and then lean on Carter against CSU. Just my opinion.
Quote from: SanityLost17 on February 19, 2015, 04:51:07 PM
Side Note: Carter is more important for the CSU game than the Detroit game. Carter is going to need to be out there as much as humanly possible against CSU. Lean on Nickerson against detroit and then lean on Carter against CSU. Just my opinion.
I bet he still needs significant game minutes to get sharp.
If his toe's good, 20-25 at Detroit, 30 at CSU?
Quote from: WiscoCrusader on February 19, 2015, 04:50:15 PM
I'm not sure I buy the premise, "RPI is RPI". For example, realtimerpi has had Valpo ahead of GB most of the season, and we are currently ahead by about 15 spots.
Is realtimerpi using "fake" RPI math?
Huh? They've got us at. 63, GB at 48. About like any other RPI site, I expect.
Quote
To summarize the thread, is the Horizon League really saying that because GB played Wisconsin (and got crushed) and we didn't, that makes GB more deserving to be the conference champions in the event of an unresolvable tie? That's just sad... We lost by 1 at GB and won by 6 at home.
I wonder if they just didn't think hard about it?
Didn't like the behavior total points, or scoring differential, or similar would incentivize.
Didn't want a coin toss. I guess they could have used non-con record? But RPI might be better than that.
Quote from: WiscoCrusader on February 19, 2015, 04:50:15 PMWe lost by 1 at GB and won by 6 4 at home.
Sykes and team never gave up till the very last second.
As for the HL would rather have GB host than Valpo because of seating capacity. I disagree, Valpo can pack the house and that looks great on TV! Just my opinion.
Quote from: WiscoCrusader on February 19, 2015, 04:50:15 PM
I'm not sure I buy the premise, "RPI is RPI". For example, realtimerpi has had Valpo ahead of GB most of the season, and we are currently ahead by about 15 spots.
Is realtimerpi using "fake" RPI math?
As someone who obsesses over our RPI, this is 100% false.
As another indicated, Crusaders can lose one more (either Wright State or Detroit) as long as we beat Cleveland State. If we win against WSU and Detroit, but then lose to Cleveland State, we can still hope for an Oakland win over the Green Bay at the end off the season!
However, I think this team would be better served being in 3rd place than 2nd. I'd rather have a big win at home before going to Green Bay or Cleveland as compared to a bye the first week.
The only way we have a home game before the championship is if we're the #1 seed.
But the third place team plays Friday and Saturday... the 2nd place team only has to play on Saturday... those semi final games are played at the home court of the #1 seed...
If Valpo wins the top seed... the Friday games will be in the ARC
if Valpo is NOT the top seed... we play in an empty gym somewhere against the winner of one of the Tuesday play in games....
PS... Welcome to the Forum!
Quote from: covufan on February 19, 2015, 12:00:05 PM
Quote from: StlVUFan on February 16, 2015, 12:44:38 PM
My tiebreaker spreadsheet is locked and loaded, ready for bear ... except: still waiting word on just how much Milwaukee will be involved in tie-breaker procedures. Seems fairly certain they are to be used as a common opponent, should tiebreaker rule 3 be needed, but they may also complicate 3-way ties that they ostensibly participate in.
I was told there will be something from the HL office on this today.
Kyle is right about CSU hosting if they win out, as far as I can tell, but I don't know about GB winning out (and Valpo losing at least once).
I'm sure StlVUFan will be posting info after this weekends games.
On my blog, possibly here.
I tried something new this year, tried to automate a little more, but it's still a long process. There are a ton of 2-way ties and a few 3-way ties still unresolved, and some of them have to be resolved via RPI.
One thing I'm doing is pretending that Milwaukee is eligible unless it comes to resolving a tie between them and one other team. I still haven't heard for sure how they're dealing with this. I figure all of their conference games count for other teams, so we should pretend that they are eligible until all the seeds are determined, then just drop them and move everybody beneath them up one slot.
I'm kinda confused by the whole Milwaukee situation. If they are note eligible for the tournament, then won't there only be 8 seeds and #3 doesn't get a single bye anymore? Maybe I missed this post somewhere else.
Quote from: gamelord on February 20, 2015, 07:22:38 PM
I'm kinda confused by the whole Milwaukee situation. If they are note eligible for the tournament, then won't there only be 8 seeds and #3 doesn't get a single bye anymore? Maybe I missed this post somewhere else.
Yes there will only be 8 teams, but actually it means that 3 AND 4 get a single bye. 5 hosts 8 and 6 hosts 7.
Is it me, or is this like the fourth thread to rehash the same scenarios? (better: scenarii)
I figured this was the definitive thread.
But, it does have competition from Opponents' Scoreboard or whatever it's called.
So, like HC said on the other thread, the CSU victory @ UWGB gives us a pretty good shot at a #2 seed consolation prize, if we can't win @CSU.
And, I think it makes it pretty hard for us to fall to the #4 seed. But, it may still be possible.
Here's a quick go at it:
1)Valpo ends 14-2, #1 seed
2)Valpo ends 13-3, with win at CSU, Valpo #1 seed
3)Valpo ends 13-3, with loss at CSU
a)CSU wins @UMW, CSU has tiebreaker with UWGB sweep, Valpo #2 seed
b)CSU loses @UMW, Valpo #1 seed
4)Valpo ends 12-4
a)Valpo still takes the #1 seed if we win at CSU
(we'd have the tiebreaker over CSU with the sweep; that sweep should work as a tiebreaker over either Green Bay or Oakland, as well; and for any three-way tie involving us)
b)If we lose at CSU, CSU's sweep of Green Bay gives them the tiebreaker over us. Our win over CSU at the ARC gives us the tiebreaker over GB. If Oakland wins out, their sweep at GB would give them the tiebreaker over us. So, we could be #2 or #3 seed.
5)Valpo ends 11-5
One of Green Bay or Oakland will have at least 5 losses. We have the tiebreaker over Green Bay with our win over CSU, at the ARC. If Oakland loses @UWGB and ends 11-5, Oakland would have losses to Milwaukee and Detroit, we'd have losses to Wright State and Detroit. It might depend on how Milwaukee gets handled in the tiebreakers, or how Wright State finishes relative to Milwaukee. But _probably_ our sweep of Milwaukee would give us the #3 seed?
Quote from: gamelord on February 20, 2015, 07:22:38 PM
I'm kinda confused by the whole Milwaukee situation. If they are note eligible for the tournament, then won't there only be 8 seeds and #3 doesn't get a single bye anymore? Maybe I missed this post somewhere else.
Everything you wanted to know about the tournament bracket, tie breaking procedure, etc. - complete with updated standings:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Horizon_League_Men's_Basketball_Tournament (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Horizon_League_Men's_Basketball_Tournament)
Something I hadn't considered from the CSU board:
I take that back we clinch #3 seed but not #2 because If we lost to Valpo and Oakland wins out (which means winning at GB) Oakland would get #2 seed
Read more: http://clevelandstatehoops.proboards.com/thread/1053/game-29-green-bay?page=7#ixzz3SMMddEXT (http://clevelandstatehoops.proboards.com/thread/1053/game-29-green-bay?page=7#ixzz3SMMddEXT)
You guys are thinking to hard, make Bill Potter earn his paycheck! Just cheer for a Milwaukee win tomorrow over CSU then Valpo just has to win 2/3.
You guys are thinking too hard, make Bill Potter earn his paycheck! Just cheer for a Milwaukee win tomorrow over CSU then Valpo just has to win 2/3 just win out, and then everyone else can worry about this crap.
I think my head is going to explode!!!!!!!! Could someone go over those scenarios one more time? And again, where does UWM fit it? LOL Just win out and don't worry...be happy!
http://youtu.be/d-diB65scQU
Well, at 12-2 with the win over WSU that eliminates any 4 seed scenarios, and any Milwaukee seeding confusion as it affects our own seed.
#1, 2, or 3 it is.
And why not 1?
Quote from: agibson on February 20, 2015, 11:56:03 PM
So, like HC said on the other thread, the CSU victory @ UWGB gives us a pretty good shot at a #2 seed consolation prize, if we can't win @CSU.
And, I think it makes it pretty hard for us to fall to the #4 seed. But, it may still be possible.
Here's a quick go at it:
1)Valpo ends 14-2, #1 seed
2)Valpo ends 13-3, with win at CSU, Valpo #1 seed
3)Valpo ends 13-3, with loss at CSU
a)CSU wins @UMW, CSU has tiebreaker with UWGB sweep, Valpo #2 seed
b)CSU loses @UMW, Valpo #1 seed
4)Valpo ends 12-4
a)Valpo still takes the #1 seed if we win at CSU
(we'd have the tiebreaker over CSU with the sweep; that sweep should work as a tiebreaker over either Green Bay or Oakland, as well; and for any three-way tie involving us)
b)If we lose at CSU, CSU's sweep of Green Bay gives them the tiebreaker over us. Our win over CSU at the ARC gives us the tiebreaker over GB. If Oakland wins out, their sweep at GB would give them the tiebreaker over us. So, we could be #2 or #3 seed.
When it comes to RPI, there is no need anymore to wait for the weekly official NCAA number or use other RPI's that attempt to figure it (mimic) in the same way as the NCAA does. The NCAA now publishes it on a daily basis.
One note of interest since last night's game won by Cleveland State is that Valpo jumped (or ducked to miss the fall) Green Bay by one place in the official RPI.
See:
[http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-rpi]
If CSU loses today, we just have to win one of the next two?
After looking at the rpl I think we lost 3 spots after our win against wsu.
Yes. if CSU loses they will have 4 losses and GB would have 4 losses. 1 out of 2 wins for Valpo gives them the regular season title outright. Thus, the CSU-Milwaukee game is a big game. If CSU wins, the Valpo-Detroit game becomes moot for the regular season title since the winner of the CSU-Valpo game would win the regular season title regardless. Of course, winning out for Valpo would be the best scenario for a potential NCAA seeding.
Anyone have any predictions they'd like to share? Does Milwaukee stamd a chance?
I think Milwaukee has about a 25% chance of winning. They have not played well, but have some good players that could rise to the occasion.
According to RPIForecast.com, Milwaukee has a 32% chance of winning.
What channel is the game on
200 on comcast
Streaming OK on http://americansportsnet.com (http://americansportsnet.com)
Milwaukee up 4 at the half.
Quote from: vu84v2 on February 22, 2015, 01:42:18 PM
Yes. if CSU loses they will have 4 losses and GB would have 4 losses. 1 out of 2 wins for Valpo gives them the regular season title outright. Thus, the CSU-Milwaukee game is a big game. If CSU wins, the Valpo-Detroit game becomes moot for the regular season title since the winner of the CSU-Valpo game would win the regular season title regardless. Of course, winning out for Valpo would be the best scenario for a potential NCAA seeding.
Yep, a Milwaukee win (and they lead at the half) would give us some breathing room. It would let us clinch at a Detroit, which would then make our game at CSU moot (and probably a sort of a trap game?).
I can't take anymore trap games....
Milwaukee better pull out this W
Quote from: Valpofan02 on February 22, 2015, 03:56:00 PM
Milwaukee better pull out this W
Enh. It'd be gravy. I'm certainly not counting on it. And I certainly don't trust them in a close finish. If they're going to win, they'd better get a lead back now, and build it.
Panoske just hit 2 quick 3s, Mil up 2 at the u4 to 2nd half. The announcers aren't bad either, good game. Hopefully Mil can hold on here.
LETSSS GOOO PANTHERS
Milwaukee up 8 with 9 seconds left. I like their chances.
Yep....uwm won. We need to beat Detroit wednesday.
Milwaukee wins! Looking good for Valpo at the #1 if we beat DET?
Gravy anyone? Wooooooo. Just need one win in last two games to ice this thing. If we lose both the tiebreakers are insane, but I don't expect to need to worry about that anymore!
This couldn't have worked out any better for us. CSU plays really well and knocks off GB, then Milwaukee plays with pride to knock off CSU. If we don't seize the opportunity against Detroit, our guys need a gut check....
Quote from: vu84v2 on February 22, 2015, 01:56:02 PM
I think Milwaukee has about a 25% chance of winning. They have not played well, but have some good players that could rise to the occasion.
Penoske and Tiby sure came through with threes when the game didn't mean much to them except pride. Anybody really glad the Panthers screwed themselves out of an HL tourney position?
Quote from: bbtds on February 22, 2015, 04:54:34 PM
Quote from: vu84v2 on February 22, 2015, 01:56:02 PM
I think Milwaukee has about a 25% chance of winning. They have not played well, but have some good players that could rise to the occasion.
Penoske and Tiby sure came through with threes when the game didn't mean much to them except pride. Anybody really glad the Panthers screwed themselves out of an HL tourney position?
Very. They could've won the league again. Reminds me of last year.
From the CSU board:
Listening on the radio: Waters just told the refs: "I knew you guys were going to cost us a championship."
Leaving Panoski completely unguarded on 5 3-pt. baskets might have had something to with it...LOL
Quote from: wh on February 22, 2015, 05:06:50 PM
From the CSU board:
Listening on the radio: Waters just told the refs: "I knew you guys were going to cost us a championship."
Leaving Panoski completely unguarded on 6 3-pt. baskets might have had something to with it...LOL
They also constantly carry on about all of their "what if" close loses. Newsflash...Everyone has close wins loses! You are only allowed 1 "woulda-coulda-shoulda" post per season. Don't keep repeating yourself, it is annoying!
Darn, I've already used my "shoulda-coulda-woulda."
How about win and it will be!!! no Shouda-coulda-woulda Crap!!!
Assuming we take care of business this week (big if, I know), who would everyone rather see as the 4 seed in semis? Most likely either Oakland or GB
Oakland can shoot the 3 better and makes them more dangerous. We can pack it on greeen bay.
Quote from: hailcrusaders on February 22, 2015, 07:23:15 PM
Assuming we take care of business this week (big if, I know), who would everyone rather see as the 4 seed in semis? Most likely either Oakland or GB
Man I was just about to post this. I'd say Green Bay but unfortunately I think we will see Oakland. Man I cant stand Oakland! They give us their best game everytime we play them!
Quote from: Valpofan00 on February 22, 2015, 07:57:37 PM
Quote from: hailcrusaders on February 22, 2015, 07:23:15 PM
Assuming we take care of business this week (big if, I know), who would everyone rather see as the 4 seed in semis? Most likely either Oakland or GB
Man I was just about to post this. I'd say Green Bay but unfortunately I think we will see Oakland. Man I cant stand Oakland! They give us their best game everytime we play them!
If they both win all their games until they meet up in their last game will that game decide who's the 3rd and 4th seed?
Quote from: Valpofan00 on February 22, 2015, 07:59:23 PMIf they both win all their games until they meet up in their last game will that game decide who's the 3rd and 4th seed?
I think it depends. Either Oakland or GB, as winner, could take the second seed, depending on how things turn out. And, if Oakland loses at GB but winds up 11-5 they could have the tie-breaker over CSU (not getting swept by us), and CSU could fall to #4.
Oakland does not have depth. If we are #1 and they are #4 they are going to have to play us on 24 hours rest. Several of their players play 36-40 minutes a game. I like our odds against them. Also, no way Hayes hits that many 3's against us agian.
Quote from: agibson on February 22, 2015, 08:08:34 PM
Quote from: Valpofan00 on February 22, 2015, 07:59:23 PMIf they both win all their games until they meet up in their last game will that game decide who's the 3rd and 4th seed?
I think it depends. Either Oakland or GB, as winner, could take the second seed, depending on how things turn out. And, if Oakland loses at GB but winds up 11-5 they could have the tie-breaker over CSU (not getting swept by us), and CSU could fall to #4.
I do not want to play CSU, if we have to I'd like it to be for the championship..
So are we officially Co-HL season champs at this point? If so are we now guaranteed at least an NIT bid?
Quote from: Chairback on February 22, 2015, 08:28:34 PM
So are we officially Co-HL season champs at this point? If so are we now guaranteed at least an NIT bid?
Co-champs, yes. I'm sure they only give one NIT auto-bid, and I'm 95% sure that'll go to whoever hosts the tournament.
Quote from: SanityLost17 on February 22, 2015, 08:12:58 PM
Oakland does not have depth. If we are #1 and they are #4 they are going to have to play us on 24 hours rest. Several of their players play 36-40 minutes a game. I like our odds against them. Also, no way Hayes hits that many 3's against us agian.
Agreed. Hayes had the game of his life for them to just stay in the game. Although I want to throw this into the conversation, Detroit as the 5 seed can easily take down whoever ends up in the 4 spot. With that game being on a neutral court, anything could happen there.
I'd like to watch a Detroit/Oakland game in person...hopefully they'd bring a bunch of their fans down with them!
i just posted the bracket (current) in the HL Standings thread, but will repost here...I'd much rather play Oakland in the semis than either CSU or GB. We'll see this week...
(http://s11.postimg.org/yfnq1yyoj/Screen_Shot_2015_02_22_at_10_52_37_PM.png)
Following is every current tie-breaking scenario for every tournament seed. Great job, Commissioner!
Re: Conference Season Scoreboard
Postby Commissioner » Sun Feb 22, 2015 11:37 pm
Cleveland's loss today to Milwaukee dramatically alters the possibilities for the Horizon year-end standings and seedings. What had looked pretty straightforward with a CSU win--Valpo plays at CSU for first and second; Oakland plays at Green Bay for 3rd and 4th--now offers up a boatload of possibilities.
Remember, the basic HL tiebreaker is simple. First, it's head to head. If the teams split, then look at which team has the best victory in league play- in other words compare the two against the 3rd place team, then the 4th place team, and so on down until one team has more wins than the other.
1. Valparaiso clinches the league title by winning at Detroit next Wednesday or at Cleveland State next Friday. That's the easy one.
2. If Valpo loses to both Detroit and CSU, and Oakland loses against Youngstown or at Green Bay, Valpo and Cleveland State would tie. CSU would own the tie breaker by virtue of having beaten Green Bay twice.
3. If Valpo loses out, and Oakland wins out, Valpo, CSU, and Oakland will be tied for first at 12-4. The teams split their meetings with each other, so we go to the second tiebreaker. Here, CSU and Oakland will both have defeated 4th place Green Bay twice, but Valpo beat them just once. Now it is down to CSU and Oakland. Each split with 5th place Milwaukee. Each split with 6th place Detroit. Each swept 7th, 8th, and 9th place UIC, Wright State, and YSU. So the resort to the final tiebreaker-- the team with the highest RPI is declared the regular season champ and hosts the tournament. As of this writing, CSU has an RPI of 126, and Oakland an RPI of 135. The RPI Wizard predicts that in this scenario, CSU would finish at 106, and Oakland at 112. That's close enough that they could swap depending on what their various non-conference opponents do in the next week. The loser of that duel would then be the second seed, since both CSU and Oakland will hold the tie breaker over Valpo by virtue of their wins over Green Bay.
4. If Valpo loses out and Green Bay wins out, Valpo, Green Bay, and CSU will be tied for the title. CSU would then be the league champ by virtue of a 3-1 record in head to head match ups between the three. Valpo would take second place, since it beat CSU once while Green Bay lost to CSU twice. Green Bay would be third and Oakland 4th.
5. A two way tie between Valpo and CSU would result if Valpo loses out and the winner of Oakland @ Green Bay loses its other remaining game (Green Bay @ UIC; YSU @ Oakland). CSU would again hold the tiebreaker by virtue of sweeping Green Bay. Valpo would be the #2 seed. Oakland would be the #3 seed unless it loses to both Green Bay and UIC, in which case Green Bay would be the #3 seed and Oakland #4.
Phew.
Now assume scenario 1 above - Valpo wins the outright title. What about 2nd, 3rd, and 4th?
6. If Cleveland State and Green Bay both win out, each will finish 12-4. CSU will be the #2 seed and get the double bye by virtue of sweeping Green Bay during the season. Green Bay will be #3 and Oakland #4.
7. If Cleveland State and Oakland both win out, each will finish 12-4. Each will have a split with Valpo and a sweep of Green Bay, then same as scenario 3 above - the higher RPI will be seeded #2, the other #3, Green Bay #4.
8. If CSU beats Valpo and both Green Bay and Oakland lose one game, CSU will be the #2 seed, Oakland #3, Green Bay #4.
a. If either Green Bay or Oakland loses out, the winner of Oakland @ Green Bay will be #3, the loser #4.
9. If CSU loses to Valpo, and either Green Bay or Oakland wins out, the Oakland-Green Bay winner will be seeded #2. The Oakland-Green Bay loser will be the #3 seed if it wins its other game. If it loses its other game, CSU will be the #3 seed.
10. If CSU loses to Valpo and the winner of Oakland @ Green Bay drops it other game, and the loser wins its other game, the three teams will be 11-5. If Oakland won the Green Bay game, Oakland will be the #2 seed, CSU #3, Green Bay #4. If Green Bay beat Oakland, CSU will be the #2 seed, Oakland #3, Green Bay #4.
Are you with me? Here is the easy part:
11. Detroit is the 5th seed. Period.
The bottom 3 are confusing. Wright State plays @ UIC and hosts Milwaukee; UIC hosts Wright State and plays @ Green Bay; YSU plays @ Oakland, and hosts Milwaukee.
12. If UIC or WSU wins out, it will be the #6 seed.
13. In the event of a three way tie between YSU, WSU, and UIC (this requires YSU winning out, and the winner of UIC/WSU losing its other game):
a. If UIC beats Wright State, UIC will be the #6 seed, YSU #7, and Wright State #8
b. If WSU beats UIC, YSU will be #6, UIC #7, and WSU #8
14. Two way tie breakers:
a. UIC and WSU tie: UIC is #6, WSU #7, YSU #8.
b. UIC and YSU tie with 4 wins:
i. UIC beats Green Bay: Wright State is #6, UIC #7, YSU #8
ii. UIC beats Wright State: YSU is #6, UIC #7, Wright State #8.
c. WSU and YSU tie with 4 wins:
i. WSU beats MIlwaukee: UIC is #6, YSU #7, Wright State #8.
ii. WSU beats UIC: YSU is #6, WSU #7, UIC #8.
d. UIC and YSU tie with 3 wins: Wright State is #6, YSU #7, UIC #8
e. WSU and YSU tie with 3 wins: UIC is #6, YSU #7, WSU #8, unless YSU loses to Oakland, but only if Detroit finishes with a higher RPI than Milwaukee.
Got it? Good.
My head is spinning.
Quote from: a3uge on February 23, 2015, 07:41:46 AM
My head is spinning.
Ditto.
We will take care of things this week. I have confidence in this team.
A very thorough analysis! Is that from the CSU board? I certainly didn't check it all. The one case I thought might be missing, that I'd mentioned recently with CSU 4th seed , is in fact there, hiding at #9.
The rpiratings.com (the official HL site hosted by the Colleagiate Basketball News folks)... through games 2/22...(only D1 games count)
Rank Team W L SS Rk RPI
62. Green Bay 19 7 .5089 132 .5686
65. Valparaiso 22 4 .4465 287 .5660
123. Cleveland St. 15 12 .4956 159 .5238
134. Oakland 13 14 .5297 106 .5191
207. Detroit 11 17 .5027 145 .4795
215. Wright St. 9 17 .5163 121 .4748
229. Milwaukee 10 16 .5112 129 .4695
279. Youngstown St. 8 18 .4770 207 .4394
308. Illinois-Chicago 5 22 .4939 166 .4181
I don't know what's worse, a team who will probably be hosting a tournament home game is ranked 308 in RPI or our SoS is ranked 287...
This is though because I think a loss before the tournament can be a good reminder before it really matters
so... I dis-assembled the Commissioners blog from a few days ago, and took out all of the things that did not or cannot happen... here's what's left:
Postby Commissioner » Sun Feb 22, 2015 11:37 pm
1. Valparaiso clinches the league title ...by winning at Detroit next Wednesday or at Cleveland State next Friday.
That's the easy one.
Now assume scenario 1 above - Valpo wins the outright title. What about 2nd, 3rd, and 4th?
9. If CSU loses to Valpo, and either Green Bay or Oakland wins out, the Oakland-Green Bay winner will be seeded #2. The Oakland-Green Bay loser will be the #3 seed if it wins its other game.
11. Detroit is the 5th seed. Period.
The bottom 3 are confusing.
Current status:
WSU 3-12
UIC 3-12
YSU 2-13
Today's games:
WSU @ UIC at 1PM CT
MIL @ YSU at 6PM CT
14. Two way tie breakers:
d. UIC and YSU tie with 3 wins: Wright State is #6, YSU #7, UIC #8
e. WSU and YSU tie with 3 wins: UIC is #6, YSU #7, WSU #8, (unless YSU loses to Oakland [which they did], but only if Detroit #207 finishes with a higher RPI than Milwaukee #229 so they will.)
Got it? Good.
Quote from: covufan on February 23, 2015, 08:18:46 AMMy head is spinning.
Which Scenario applys now? :crazy:
Quote from: VUfan on February 28, 2015, 08:21:00 AM
Quote from: covufan on February 23, 2015, 08:18:46 AMMy head is spinning.
Which Scenario applys now? :crazy:
as long as we are hosting, I don't care much about 2-8 (or Milw)!
Top 5 if Green Bay wins at home against Oakland today:
Valpo
GB
OAK
CSU
DET
Top 5 if Oakland beats Green Bay today
Valpo
Oak
GB
CSU
DET
Bottom 3 seeds depend on the outcome of the WSU@UIC and MIL@YSU games today at 1pm and 7pm respectively.:
14. Two way tie breakers for the bottom 3 seeds:
d. UIC and YSU tie with 3 wins: Wright State is #6, YSU #7, UIC #8
e. WSU and YSU tie with 3 wins: UIC is #6, YSU #7, WSU #8,
so here are the 4 possible game outcomes
WSU and MIL win:
6 WSU
7 UIC
8 YSU
UIC and MIL win:
6. UIC
7. WSU
8. YSU
WSU and YSU win:
6. WSU
7. YSU
8. UIC
UIC and YSU win:
6. UIC
7. YSU
8. WSU
so it looks like we'll be playing detroit or cleveland state again. Interesting.
I think we all agree that Detroit is the only threat lurking below the top 4. Great to be the king, ain't it?
Barring a huge upset in quarters we get CSU or Detroit in the semis. I'd take that over Green Bay. Their defense is rock solid. And Oakland goes on hot streaks.
Quote from: talksalot on February 28, 2015, 08:32:28 AM
Top 5 if Oakland beats Green Bay today
Valpo
Oak
GB
CSU
DET
Doesn't CSU have the first tiebreaker over GB, head-to-head? Seems like GB would fall to 4.
That they do. If Oakland wins, GB becomes the 4. If GB wins, CSU becomes the 4
Quote from: valpo4life on February 28, 2015, 09:43:21 AMThat they do. If Oakland wins, GB becomes the 4. If GB wins, CSU becomes the 4
Not the way I read the Commish's breakdown...
Here's the section I was using:
9. If CSU loses to Valpo, and either Green Bay or Oakland wins out, (which one of them will) the Oakland-Green Bay winner will be seeded #2. The Oakland-Green Bay loser will be the #3 seed if it wins its other game (which they both did) . If it loses its other game, CSU will be the #3 seed.
and a slight addition to the bottom-seeds scenarios... for ummmmm... clarification.
The bottom 3 are confusing.
Current standings:
WSU 3-12
UIC 3-12
YSU 2-13
Today's other games:
WSU @ UIC at 1PM CT
MIL @ YSU at 6PM CT
If YSU beats Milwaukee, there would be a tie.
a. UIC and YSU tie with 3 wins: Wright State is #6, YSU #7, UIC #8
b. WSU and YSU tie with 3 wins: UIC is #6, YSU #7, WSU #8,
If Milwaukee beats YSU, YSU is #8 and they travel to Detroit.;
The winner of the WSU/UIC game is #6 and the loser is #7.... and they play each other again on Tuesday on today's winner's court.
Quote from: talksalot on February 28, 2015, 10:17:49 AM
Quote from: valpo4life on February 28, 2015, 09:43:21 AMThat they do. If Oakland wins, GB becomes the 4. If GB wins, CSU becomes the 4
Not the way I read the Commish's breakdown...
Craig Hammel from the Horizon League posted on twitter last night after our win the scenarios. Which is where I got my information for my post.
Oakland wins and they are the 2, CSU is the 3 and GB is the 4.
GB wins and they are the 2, Oakland is the 3, and CSU is the 4.
Quote from: talksalot on February 28, 2015, 10:23:03 AM
Here's the section I was using:
9. If CSU loses to Valpo, and either Green Bay or Oakland wins out, (which one of them will) the Oakland-Green Bay winner will be seeded #2. The Oakland-Green Bay loser will be the #3 seed if it wins its other game (which they both did) . If it loses its other game, CSU will be the #3 seed.
You even acknowledge here that GB and Oakland both won its other game, and in that case the loser of that game is the 3 seed...
For all of you that are unaware, the real authority on this is StlVUFan. Go to his blog http://horizonleague.blogspot.com/ (http://horizonleague.blogspot.com/). He has been breaking it down for years.
Which Puts CSU in the #4. There is no scenario that I can make out where CSU moves to #3.
For NCAA tournament seeding purposes. We want to see CSU and GB. They have the 2 best RPI's and winning against them will give us our best chance at a solid seed.
So, I guess I am rooting for Green Bay to win tonight, even though I really don't like the idea of playing CSU twice in a row! Remember we played Green Bay twice in a row a few years back, and after killing them the 1st time, we needed a desperation 3 to win the tournament game.
on the StlFan blog... which means the Commish's posting from last Sunday was wrong on the OAK/CSU opportunities.
Valpo's win over CSU clinched the 1 seed and hosting duties. And with that, all RPI ties are gone.
Today's Green Bay-Oakland game settles the remainder of the top 4 seeds. If Green Bay wins, they get the 2 seed, Oakland gets the 3 seed, and CSU gets the 4 seed (Oakland wins the tiebreaker with CSU because they split with Valpo while CSU was swept by Valpo0.
If Oakland beats Green Bay, Oakland gets the 2 seed, CSU gets the 3 seed, and Green Bay gets the 4 seed (CSU wins the tiebreaker since they swept Green Bay).
Yes, if Oakland wins, GB is the 4. They and CSU would be 11-5, and CSU beat GB both games. Oakland would be 12-4 and not a part of the tie-breaker anymore.
I would much rather play CSU or Detroit over GB, as well. GB has other players that can hurt you besides Sykes. Our length really bothers CSU and Waters is a bumblef*ck, and Detroit has Howard Jr/Bass and that is about it, while Ray Sr is also a bumblef*ck. Wardle is a piece of crap, but he is a good play/defense schemer against Valpo.
***I don't want to play CSU because it's hard to beat a team 3 times in a row.
***I don't want to play GB because they take away our inside game better than anyone in the league and you never know when Sykes might go off.
***I don't want to play Oakland because they have some sort of bizarre ability to hit desperation 3's (seems satanic) when we're trying to close out the game.
Who does that leave - Detroit maybe? Detroit just beat us so their confidence level...........
Why can't just do things like the Ivy League? ;)
How much credence do we put into the "can't beat a good team 3 times" adage w respect to CSU?
None at all. As a player, you don't even think about it. Both teams are going to be trying to advance in the tourney, and it won't be a thought in any of our player's minds that beating someone 3 times is hard.
That makes sense, but, I suppose, it might not be psychological. It might just be reality. That after two failures they're bound to find some way to beat your defense, or stymie your offense, etc.
Not sure I buy it. My thoughts always tend first two statistics. The first two games give you a good prediction of who the better team is. Surely this is the logic that applies to teams at very different levels. It should be pretty easy to beat UIC x3.
No matter how you put it winning the tournament won't be an easy task. We have the best chance but Oakland, GB, and CSU all can beat us. I'm hoping we wind up playing Detroit in the semis, they beat us on their court but we played an awful game. We can beat the other 3 and I think we match up the best with GB, they are an awful shooting team and need to get to the rim to score and that's the strength of our defense. It's great to have a week off now. Gives them some time to celebrate winning the regular season but come Monday its back to work.
To me the most likely teams to come out of the HL are:
1. Valpo: home court advantage
2. CSU: There defense keeps games really tight
3. Oakland: They can score with the best of them and have a very solid team
4. Green Bay: If Sykes plays at his best they can beat anyone but they also aren't a very complete team, can't shoot, and are awful from the FT line
5. Detroit: To me the dark horse. I'm highly doubtful they'll win the tournament but out of the bottom seeds they're the ones that can make some noise. I can see them making it to the semis and that's as far as they get.
Maybe I worry too much but I do not like the fact that we will sit for 8 long days while everyone else will have to play either today and or Tuesday or Friday. Too much rest can be just as bad as having none. This is one of the things I have never liked about the double bye.
talksalot, the section you referenced earlier today from the Commish was indeed correct. You just misinterpreted that's all.
As far as the too much rest argument, Bryce will have them go at it in practice probably on Wednesday being the peak. The part I like about this is now we have a week where there is no game preparation need in practice, all the time can be devoted to us getting better as a team which doesn't get to happen a whole lot during the year.
Quote from: valpo4life on February 28, 2015, 10:47:30 AMCraig Hammel from the Horizon League posted on twitter last night after our win the scenarios. Which is where I got my information for my post.
Given the choice between an official from the league and some dude on UDM's blog who we only know by his screen name...
...you gotta go with the random dude, right?
Oakland:
Scary because... they can get hot in a hurry with their outside shooting. Kampe is one of the better in-game coaches in the league. Petros can match Vashil's height. Grizzlies have something to prove.
Not scary because... we wouldn't face them until the final, if they get that far. They don't play all that well on the road. The more games they have to play (esp. if they get the 3 seed), the more tired they'll be, and they aren't real deep.
Green Bay:
Scary because... Keifer, Love, Mays. Play well down low, can force TOs. Sykes won't go down without a fight his senior year.
Not scary because... banged up a bit? We play well with them (only lost by 1 on the road).
CSU:
Scary because... "can't beat a team three times", if you buy into it. Plays physical, can match our style. I think Waters is a better coach than we give him credit for. We'll probably get them Saturday.
Not scary because...have to get through Detroit first if they get the 4. Haven't been playing all that well of late.
Tell the "its hard to beat a team 3 times in a season" to Butler. We completely destroyed them that game. Hoping for something similar this year.
Quote from: valpo4life on February 28, 2015, 12:03:00 PMthe section you referenced earlier today from the Commish was indeed correct. You just misinterpreted that's all.
Can happen to anybody. The rules are a bit intricate, at can make your head spin after a while. For a while, I'd totally forgotten that now _we_ were the chief tiebreaker. That our sweep of CSU now puts them on the _losing_ end of many tiebreaker scenarios.
Quote from: SanityLost17 on February 28, 2015, 10:57:13 AMFor NCAA tournament seeding purposes. We want to see CSU and GB. They have the 2 best RPI's and winning against them will give us our best chance at a solid seed.
GB for sure. I would have thought CSU vs. Oakland wouldn't make much of a difference. But, RPI Forecast/Wizard suggests that it does. Home wins over GB and CSU could push us 66 --> 48. While GB and OAK would only be 66 --> 52. Something like Oakland and Detroit might net us merely 61st place in the RPI.
That said, we're going to get to play 4/5/8 and then 2/3/6/7. And, it looks like GB and CSU are guaranteed to be on opposite sides of the bracket (can't be 2-3). So, our ideal case should remain alive through tonight.
Ideally, I guess, if we're just trying to maximize our RPI, GB wins to boost their RPI, which is good so long as we play them.
All of this might change on an OAK win, boosting their RPI. But maybe it won't change the calculus too much.
Quote from: hailcrusaders on February 28, 2015, 12:30:56 PMGreen Bay: Scary because... Keifer, Love, Mays. Play well down low, can force TOs. Sykes won't go down without a fight his senior year. Not scary because... banged up a bit? We play well with them (only lost by 1 on the road).
Watching the Oakland/UWGB game and Sykes is back. It's not the same Sykes as we saw in the our two games. He lookes determined when going to the rim and he's hitting his jumpshots. 10 points in the first 10 minutes.
Its fun watching these two very small but athletic guards go against each other. (Felder and Sykes)
Quote from: oklahomamick on February 28, 2015, 01:44:39 PMIts fun watching these two very small but athletic guards go against each other. (Felder and Sykes)
Definitely. They're using a ton of their teams' possessions.
This PBP guy's a bit odd - it's like he has a lousy view of the court. He keeps saying, half-surprised, "ref said his foot was on the line" when they're just deep 2's - Sykes straddling the line, etc. Not really close at all.
Quote from: a3uge on February 28, 2015, 01:01:48 PM
Tell the "its hard to beat a team 3 times in a season" to Butler. We completely destroyed them that game. Hoping for something similar this year.
While you're at it, tell it to Broekhoff and co. in 2012, or LVD last spring.
I don't know if I believe in the adage in all honesty. Generally if you beat a team twice, it's because you're better than them. That said, if you win two tight games against a team that's right there with you, perhaps a few calls/bounces went your way the first few times that might not the third...
Quote from: hailcrusaders on February 28, 2015, 02:46:58 PM
Quote from: a3uge on February 28, 2015, 01:01:48 PM
Tell the "its hard to beat a team 3 times in a season" to Butler. We completely destroyed them that game. Hoping for something similar this year.
While you're at it, tell it to Broekhoff and co. in 2012, or LVD last spring.
I don't know if I believe in the adage in all honesty. Generally if you beat a team twice, it's because you're better than them. That said, if you win two tight games against a team that's right there with you, perhaps a few calls/bounces went your way the first few times that might not the third...
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy
Quote from: a3uge on February 28, 2015, 02:49:33 PM
Quote from: hailcrusaders on February 28, 2015, 02:46:58 PM
Quote from: a3uge on February 28, 2015, 01:01:48 PM
Tell the "its hard to beat a team 3 times in a season" to Butler. We completely destroyed them that game. Hoping for something similar this year.
While you're at it, tell it to Broekhoff and co. in 2012, or LVD last spring.
I don't know if I believe in the adage in all honesty. Generally if you beat a team twice, it's because you're better than them. That said, if you win two tight games against a team that's right there with you, perhaps a few calls/bounces went your way the first few times that might not the third...
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy (http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy)
Well yes. Everyone who has taken a statistics class can tell you about the independence of variables. I'm just saying that you can't count on beating a team by five points every time. If you keep playing them, they'll beat you eventually. That doesn't mean that GB or Oakland are any less likely to beat us than CSU is, but we certainly think less of the Vikings just because we eked out Ws before.
Well, it might not be CSU to begin with, because GB winning sets up a Detroit-CSU game...Detroit's beaten them once already this year?
I'm happy with getting CSU on our side of the bracket. GB and Oakland each have players (Sykes and Felder) who can win a game by themselves. Or at the very least keep them in it. Stay away from them and go against a team we just built some confidence against again. Assuming they get by Detroit, of course.
Ditto that.
Thanks to the 20-pt GB victory over Oakland...and UIC 15-point victory at home over WSU.
We are down to ONE HL regular season game tonight.
Here are the known seeds:
1. Valpo Game 2 Saturday night - 8:30pm Central - ESPN-U (For Playback at 10:30pm Central)
2. GB Game 1 Saturday night - 6pm Central - ESPN-U
3. OAK Game 1 Friday Night - 6pm Central - ESPN-3
4. CSU Game 2 Friday Night - 8:30pm Central - ESPN-3
5. DET Hosting lower seed Tuesday of WSU or YSU - 6PM Central - ESPN-3
6. UIC Hosting higher seed Tuesday of WSU or YSU - 7PM Central - ESPN-3
Leaving tonight's game in Youngstown to decide the bottom two seeds.
MIL win:
7. WSU
8. YSU
YSU win:
7. YSU
8. WSU
so regardless, UIC is the 6 seed.
How is game-2 played before game-1 ??? Wouldn't we playing the 8:30 game on live TV?
ooops. just fixed it.... the first game is the second one on TV... so the announcers for the Valpo game cannot (or should not) talk about who the winner plays...since the earlier game won't have aired yet.
We need to channel Al Davis - Just win Baby!
Quote from: talksalot on February 28, 2015, 03:50:43 PM
Here are the known seeds:
1. Valpo Game 2 Saturday night - 8:30pm Central - ESPN-U (For Playback at 10:30pm Central)
2. GB Game 1 Saturday night - 6pm Central - ESPN-U (For Playback at 10:30pm Central)
Further fixed it for you. ;)
Quote from: FWalum on February 28, 2015, 10:52:39 AM
For all of you that are unaware, the real authority on this is StlVUFan. Go to his blog http://horizonleague.blogspot.com/ (http://horizonleague.blogspot.com/). He has been breaking it down for years.
:-[
Actually, the real authority is probably Craig Hammel, since he's the one who *has* to get it right ;)
But thanks. ;D