Valpo to be visited by MVC this week, thoughts?

[M]

Its not concerning at all.  When any team loses their best player, especially one of his caliber, they will most likely struggle.  The conference tournament loss and the loss in the NIT our next (arguably) best player was so ill he didn't practice and was just a shell of himself when he tried to play.

[UNIFTW]

You seem to have an inaccurate view of RPI, or at least of overall conference RPI. The bottom of the league playing a soft schedule is actually a good thing. Remember, RPI is 25% your own winning percentage and 50% your opponents winning percentage. Only 25% is dependent on your opponents opponents winning percentage.

Say Missouri State finishes their ooc schedule 6-6 with an RPI of 220, with a bunch of SWAC and MEAC teams on their schedule.

Drake finishes their ooc schedule 2-10 and has an RPI of 210 because they played Duke, Kansas, and Kentucky.

Which one is better for the conference? Missouri State is the team that's helping the overall RPI of the conference because they have the better win percentage (50% of everyone's RPI calculation)... NOT Drake.

Yes, the top of the league needs to schedule in a way to ensure a top 100 RPI (because arbitrary round numbers matter to selection committee), but the bottom of the league's individual RPIs are rather irrelevant. The perception of a 200 RPI loss is basically the same as a 250 RPI loss. Therefore, a good win loss record for the bottom dwellers is better for the league.

If you take a look at the MAC, they've got this down to a science. Every year their teams have a bad out-of-conference strength of schedule, but their conference RPI is usually strong. The top few teams in the league end up with really good RPI despite never beating anybody decent. The selection committee hasn't caught on to this yet and they've gotten better seeds than a lot of quality mid-majors with better out of conference wins. True, no team is built for an at-large bid in that league, but their top teams typically have great RPIs (didn't really work out this year because everyone beat up on each other).

Who you play, and in turn who your opponents play - especially conference you play twice in a year - and their RPI is important.


Look at 2006-2007 as a perfect example. The MVC finished 6th in the RPI and played an OOC SOS rank of 6th. Records/RPI  of the MVC that year?


7 SIU 26-6 SOS 29
20 CU 22-10 SOS 19
36 MSU 21-10 SOS 43
39 BU 20-12 SOS 21
86 UNI 17-13 SOS 81
100 WSU 16-14 SOS 72
114 DU 16-15 SOS 74
133 UE 14-17 SOS 90
138 ISUR 14-16 SOS 103
139 ISUB 12-18 SOS 54


Compare that to this year where the overall conference record isn't all that much worse - though it is - but the SOS ranks were


WSU 140
ISUR 124
SIU 103
UNI 99
LUC 198
EU 110
MSU 212
BU 135
ISUB 139
DU 146
Conference 11th


Sure, you still have to win to help RPI but SOS plays a MASSIVE factor in it. It's not a coincidence when that SOS mandate went away the bottom of the league fell off the table for RPI. Remember, opponent win % matters. Thus the bottom of the league playing SWAC/MEAC teams that are going to go 1-10 or 3-9 in the OOC kills their RPI, which then kills everyone's RPI. Go look at conference RPI finish and then their SOS rank. It's almost 100% match up


Conf RPI-SOS rank for this last year
1-1
2-2
3-3
4-4
5-5
6-6
7-9
8-8
9-7
10-10
11-12
12-11 - MVC
13-16
14-13
15-14
16-15
17-19
18-18
19-17 - HORIZON
20-20


Get the picture yet? Conference RPI is determined by team RPI. Team RPI is VERY heavily determined by SOS.


Since you used Drake at 2-10 but playing Duke, Kansas, and Kentucky I'll go a head on use this years schedule and remove a the 2 SWAC and 1 WAC games and add those in to see what we end up with. We end up with a total RPI of 265 and an SOS of 77. Still bad but significantly better than 314 for an RPI with an SOS of 146. That kind of domino affect through the entire league following that pattern (not to the extreme of Duke/UK/KU obviously) makes a significant difference.


Understanding the lay out of the formula is one thing. Knowing how it impacts the conference through a domino effect is another. MVC fans know this FAAR better than almost any other conference. We've watched it happen over the last 7 seasons. The records at the bottom of the league haven't really gotten any worse. But the SOS's have gotten significantly worse.

[UNIFTW]

No worries, whatsoever, on our ability to continue our winning ways.  Recruits see the championship banners hanging in our HS gym, which helps to cement strong players coming to Valpo, despite the gym.  It is not just because of the Drews, but because of the school itself, and our commitment to winning in Men's Basketball.  Coach Lottich has proven that he can recruit the same level of talent, but is also a better in-game coach than Bryce was.  We are something like 10-2 over the last 5 years against MVC teams, and 3-0 versus some very solid Murray State teams.  Our regular season championship teams would have been just as competitive in the MVC, as we were in the HL those years. 

Also, we have more than 2 wins in an NCAA tournament.  We have only been competing at the current D-1 level since 1978 (I believe), and had several wins in the former 'Small College' (now D-2) format of the NCAA tourney:

I HAD TO REMOVE LINK AS I'M NOT ALLOWED TO POST OUTSIDE LINKS

That's good. I'm not overly concerned, but if you're an outsider looking at the last 30 years of Valpo basketball, more specifically the last 10 it's relatively easy to see where our concern may come in. There are some pretty striking similarities to Evansville. The Aces were "the team" of the MCC (Horizon) in the 80s - specifically late 80s early 90s. Jim Crews came in and took a team from 13-16 the year before he got there to 21-8 in year 3 and 25-6 with an NCAA berth and win in year 4. He Also made the NCAA tournament in 92 and 93 before getting an MVC invite.  From years 3-MVC move UE averaged 21 wins per year - which was greatly impacted by one 14-14 year. UE's first year in the MVC saw a 3 win drop, then another 5 win drop in year 2. Year 4 saw an NCAA first round loss, but then it was 5 win drop, 4 win drop, and by year 8 Crews was fired after going 7-21. That was 2002. Since 2002 UE has finished below .500 9 times. Only finished over .500 in conference play 3 times. Finished OVER .500 overall just 4 times. 23 years in the MVC and one NCAA bid. They finish in the PIG (play in games at the conference tournament, bottom 4 teams) more than they finish outside of the PIG.


Yes, Valpo has a better structure built around their program than UE does. So I don't really believe that drop to happen. But to those outside of the Crusader program there is historical precident that moving from top dog in the HL to the MVC doesn't go well. There is also historical precedent showing that Valpo struggles to win without a Drew in charge. 12 seasons of D1 ball before Homer showed up and the best record was 13-12 and that was the first season. Only 4 seasons of double digit wins and just the 1 winning record.


Yes, the ability to recruit and show the NITs and past NCAAs will help. As I said though, with some there is a concern that it's just 2 NCAA appearances since 2004 and only 1 year with NCAA tournament wins which was 20 years ago. A post later on also says it is a bit concerning that 4 years with Alec Peters got just 1 NCAA tournament bid. Sure, there was probably AL quality team that didn't get one because of the conference, but sometimes ALs are earned on name recognition as much/more than resume. 30-7 Valpo being left out a year after making the NCAAs half shows the name recognition is starting to fade nationally.




With all of that said - I still want you in the MVC. I think you should have been the add over Loyola a few years ago. The move would be greatly beneficial for both sides. I'd love for you to come in and be a top 3 team every year. No question. I think the natural rivalry you have with UE and Loyola would be great. I think the geographical rivals would be superb with ISUr and Bradley. I think quality of play and program rivalry with UNI would be fantastic. Valpo/UNI would be "the name" match up in the MVC. I think from a university stand point Valpo/Drake would be a potentially great rivalry as well. I want it to happen. I hope all of the potential concerns us outsiders see are false. I want them to be. I want a good team. We fans for all teams want good teams. It's why we get sooo pissed on MVC fans about UMKC, UIC, SEMO, Omaha, South Dakota, Austin Peay, etc... being considered/thrown around. We don't have time for that crap. Occasionally that mentality spills over into clouding our view of Valpo (and Murray). Don't take most of MVCFans too seriously. The site (And the old site we used to have) was over run by over the top arrogant pricks from WSU and sCUm. All we know is complete vitriol and retaliation attacks. Hopefully with those two fan bases gone we can have rivalry games, heated games, heated discussions BUT able to keep it rational and mostly cordial.

With Wichita State leaving, and Illinois State turning over it's roster, are you worried that the whole conference may start trending down, especially with new teams?

Absolutely. It's why it is vital to get this addition(s) correct. Illinois State's roster turn over is very concerning to me. Look at the players they've lost the last few years to transfer. They've lost enough talent to start a MVC champion team, and they were still MVC champions this year. Muller might be the best recruiter in the conference. He just also happens to be 1 of the 3 worst X and O coaches in the conference. His player talent trumps his coaching ability more than it doesn't though. He also has a history (as does ISUr's football team) of looking past significant legal/academic issues and not suspending/booting players that help them win.

So yes, the turnover is very concerning out of ISUr. As well as SIU and MoSU.

[VULB#62]

There has been a similar situation in the HL as discussed on our board (almost annually, I think). There have been numerous requests by posters that the HL wake up and mandate scheduling standards similar to, I believe, the A10.  I think if Valpo were to receive an MVC invitation and a condition was placed on the quality of our scheduling, we would welcome it, because Valpo understands what is needed to get to an at-large status.  And that relates to an MVC concern -- seeking a replacement for WSU that embodies a commitment to MBB as their primary driver. 

A good case in point was Matt's compilation of the 2016-17 schedule (this also relates to why we have great confidence in him, cuz he could have pulled together a creampuff schedule that would have given us another 30 win season and made HIS resume better). We had a blend of top P5s and strong mid-major foes that produced a pretty solid SOS resulting in a pretty solid RPI as a team. However, many HL teams failed to follow suit.

Purely personal opinion here:  if one were to examine why VU might be willing to switch leagues, one reason might very well be a frustration with the current league's inertia in this respect. 

[VU2014]

Ok just to layout a few things for our Non-Horizon League friends that may have concerns about Coach Lottich and the Alec Peters situation.

Last Season Run-down:

-Lost Bryce Drew and his Assistant Coach Lottich was hired (retained as an Assistant Coach Gore)

-Following the hiring of Coach Lottich it was met positively from all the players and from the media/fans. But one of the players got caught in a power play from a Prep School coach who tried to 'strong-arm' Lottich to hire one of his coaches to the staff and Lottich said no, so that Prep School (Don Bosco Prep which the Student-Athlete attended before coming to Valpo) forced the Kid to transfer. Keep in mind this "prep school" coach also is an active agent. Just totally shady. This player David Skara was a likely starter and was going to be a key player for us this season and he publicly stated that he was excited that Coach Lottich got the job and was excited for the next season. Everyone knew privately the student athlete wanted to stay but got up in that whole.
(I highly encourage you give this article a read: http://www.nwitimes.com/blogs/sports/inside-vu-sports/the-servant-of-two-masters/article_9b8322d0-07ef-11e6-a241-f74cbb5d6508.html )

-Valpo's starting point guard Keith Carter from last year was Widely thought to get an extra year of eligibility because his freshman year he played at SLU but was the same year Rick Majerus got sick and passed away. His freshman year he played something like 40minutes total and was injured. Keith asked for a medical red-shirt year but SLU said NO because they knew he was planning on transferring. Everyone and I mean EVERYONE expected the NCAA was going to grant him that extra year of eligibility because the circumstances warranted it and the NCAA has precedents at Larger schools of granting an extra year, BUT the the NCAA denied his extra year and shocked everyone. If Keith played at Michigan State or any P6 schools it would be likely that he was granted that extra year.

-Coach Lottich brought in 3 very talented RS transfers last offseason. SF Joe Burton (4* Okie State), PG Bakari Evelyn (3* Nebraska), John Middleton (JUCO transfer). John Middleton got suspended for breaking "team rules" after only being on campus for a month I believe and he ended up transferring. We never really even knew the kid. So that is 3 scholarships down. We are expecting big things from Joe and Bakari next season. Both are projected starters.

-On top of all of that our Starting Forward Jubril Adekoya (one of our best players) turned himself in for an receiving unauthorized aid (rumor is there may have been are part his paper that was plagiarized). He self reported himself and so Valparaiso showing good will to the NCAA reported it to them and so Jubril was "out indefinitely" till the NCAA decided the punishment. There is NCAA precedents for kids sitting out 1/4-1/2 the season for that type of infraction. That took basically till the end of the season for the NCAA to rule he couldn't play the rest of the season (which is ridiculous). The F'ing team that just won the national championship had FAKE CLASSES for their "student"-athletes but still haven't punished UNC. Another case of the NCAA picking favorites (Not punishing Big $$ schools) but throwing the hammer down on the mid-majors. He only played 9 games and didn't compete in Conference play.

Keep in mind this is a kid who has already earned his degree in 3 yrs and has been twice member of Horizon League Academic Honor Roll. Went on Athletes in Action trip to Poland during summer of 2015 AND is on the NCAA Student-Athlete Leadership Forum. No priors to this and had a GREAT track record of academics and student leadership.

WH mention the perfect quote for this situation: "The NCAA is so mad at Kentucky they're going to give Cleveland State another year of probation." -Jerry Tarkanian

-Alec Peters gets hurts on Feb 4 against Green Bay when Valpo was 19-4 (9-1) at that point. He didn't know he suffered a stress fracture at the time and continue to play through discomfort. They started to rest him at the end of the season to try and see if rest could heel the injury. He eventually got ruled out the rest of the season and missed the ending of the season. Now with that already really short bench we lose our star.

-At the end of the season we had 0 PFs left on the roster & our only Bigs were 2 freshman that completely hit the freshman wall at the end of the season (just wore down).

-After losing AP, no Jubril, 2 (originally 3) RS players not playing, lost our to be starting Forward in Skara, NCAA screwed us on the Keith Carter, Valpo still managed to to tie for 1st place of the Conference Regular Season in the Horizon League.

-Now after all that we find out of 2nd best player Shane Hammink has been battling a very serious stomach virus and couldn't practice and hardly play at the end of the season. He looked horrendous in the Conference in the NIT. He gave it a try but he just wasn't healthy.

To say the least this past season the team has went through LOTS of adversity and challenges.

I could see how outsiders may think Valpo may not be the same without Alec Peters but Valpo will still be a very competitive MidMajor Team for the foreseeable future. One of thing to keep in mind is that Alec Peters was not ALEC PETERS (JR-SR) his whole entire college career. He has always been a very good player but he really developed his game over the last 4 years. He got better every single year and became better. He was better this year then he was his Junior year. We've been able to compete without having a sure thing dominate NBA caliber player like Alec at the peak of his game. (Although Ryan Broekhoff should be on an NBA roster next year) Valpo's program is not just one Player or coach. I'm very optimistic about the future. Next year may be a "reloading" year but we'd still most likely finish in the top half of the MVC with next years roster if not finish better. Lottich and the coaching staff is really recruiting some pretty talented recruits right now.

Hope this helps explain what the program has went through the last year or so. We should be pretty good team going forward.

[VU2014]

https://twitter.com/dreamarlowe85/status/855438286055030784
https://twitter.com/dreamarlowe85/status/855438622828498944
https://twitter.com/NWIOren/status/855439589779099650
https://twitter.com/cdl1018/status/855451831136395264

[oklahomamick]

Hope theres room for one more.

[valpopal]

It seems to me it was suggested to the Murray State President and Athletic Director that they clear the way with the Board of Directors and economically so that an invitation to the MVC would and could be accepted. The MVC doesn't want to extend an offer without guarantee of acceptance, which would be embarrassing. Valpo next?

[VU2014]

Hope theres room for one more.

Murray State mentioned they haven't received a invite yet. But you can almost guarantee that talks have happened privately.

This Board Meeting is almost the first public address by the school. They are basically laying out the case the for Murray State to get an invite. I'm sure every MVC President will watch this. This was almost talking to them and also saying that they will leave the OVC if given an offer to the MVC.

I'm sure the MVC will be taking a visit to Murray State some time in the next few weeks. MVC will probably take another visit to Valpo also.

Damn I wish our Valpo Board Meetings were open to the public! I believe our board meets next week.

Here's hoping there is room for both Valpo and Murray State to get an invite! The MVC would be stronger with both as opposed to just one getting an invite. We still don't know if they will expand to 10-11 or even possibly 12.

[vu84v2]

Wow - VU2014 provided quite the history. I would add that Valpo in the last two seasons has beaten BYU (twice), Alabama, Rhode Island (twice), Saint Mary's, Florida State and Oregon State. They played Oregon tough for long stretches twice on Oregon's home floor. You could argue that Peters was the key (and he was/is a great player), but if you look at each of those games you will see a wide variety of players stepping up (Peters was double-teamed throughout this season). With the exception of Tevonn Walker, the players that made those games happen will all be gone next year. However, I would agree with previous posters about Burton and Evelyn and would add that the program and Lottich are committed to maintaining that level of competitiveness. I would argue that Valpo's recruiting effectiveness has overall been good, but will get better with Valpo in the MVC. Getting Peters was not a one time thing.

Peters would have been a strong candidate for MVC player of the year if Valpo had been in the MVC. Valpo's previous top player (Ryan Broekhoff) would have been first team all-MVC if Valpo had been in the MVC when he played. And the pre-Peters teams with Broekhoff and company were over .500 against Butler.

I see posts from people of other MVC schools raising concerns about the post-Drew era. I would argue that there are indeed three 'eras' of Valpo D1 basketball.

-Pre-Drew era (pre-1987): No commitment to college athletics.
-Drew era: Started with no commitment to college athletics, but the success that happened after awhile with Homer (and then Bryce and Scott) showed the university how valuable having a strong mid-major college basketball program was to the university's reputation and the student environment.
-Post-Drew era (started last summer): Continued commitment by elevating a high quality young coach (Lottich).

Bottom line regarding Valpo if you look at it as another MVC program: Valpo will likely be a consistent RPI 40-90 team, though this next season I could see that being worse due to the need to integrate new players into the system (but that could be improved by having a stronger overall conference schedule). Most seasons, wins against Valpo will look like quality wins and there would only be rare seasons in which playing them would have a negative RPI (or whether better metric you prefer) effect. Valpo and the MVC is a really good fit for all parties.

[RacerJoeD]

It seems to me it was suggested to the Murray State President and Athletic Director that they clear the way with the Board of Directors and economically so that an invitation to the MVC would and could be accepted. The MVC doesn't want to extend an offer without guarantee of acceptance, which would be embarrassing. Valpo next?

I think this is spot on, but the "slush fund" is really not the big item. It does clear the way for easy payment of the exit fee, but that wasn't the difficult part. The important part was the commitment to increase athletic funding to meet loss of revenue from exit, cost of entrance, increased travel and competition needs. Huge slam dunk from a Racer fan's perspective. You guys are up.

[crusaderjoe]

My $.02 on this hasn't really changed yet. 

Unless Murray's football situation has been resolved, and by resolved I mean that:

Murray State will be allowed to complete in the OVC as a football only member for a set period of duration, and by virtue of same they will not be sued by the OVC as an entity or by any other member institution for breach of contract or in any other capacity because of their move to the MVC; or

Murray State will compete as an FCS Independent while maintaining their current fall FCS football schedule, and by virtue of same they will not be sued by the OVC as an entity or by any other member institution for breach of contract or in any other capacity because of their move to the MVC,

I just can't see them entering the MVC for the 2017-2018 season.  Anything less is unresolved.  The next coming weeks should be very interesting!

[vu84v2]

A few comments about Murray State (whom I hope is a conference member with Valpo in the very near future).

-Nice campus with lots of good people. My impression is that they know who they are (secondary state university) and place a high emphasis on teaching quality for a state school.
-Facilities outside of basketball and any other sports they play in their basketball stadium (and football, if they were to transfer to the MVFC) will be an issue for Murray State. When I was there in the fall of 2015, I saw a women's soccer game against SLU being played in a field between buildings with no seating (just a hill). Basketball stadium is new, modern and on campus.
-Compared to Valpo or most current or recent MVC schools, Murray, KY is remote. It is a city of about 35,000 people (slightly larger than Valparaiso) with no real population center closer than Paducah, KY (about 45-50 minute drive). To get there, you either fly to Paducah, KY and drive 50 minutes or fly to Nashville and drive two hours. It is not a bad bus ride from SIU, but would be a long ride from any other school.

[wh]

5. The MVC needs Valpo? False. It would be nice, but the league has been around for 110 years. It's the second oldest conference in the country behind only the B10. If done correctly the MVC can survive, and thrive, at 9. Valpo and MUSU are added benefits.

I don't know if this is just bluster, or if you're in need of a serious reality check. Either way, the facts simply don't support the positive perception you're trying to paint about your conference as it is currently positioned:

8.6  MVC's avg. conf. RPI ranking for 10 seasons prior to Creighton leaving.
12   MVC's avg. conf. RPI ranking for the past 4 seasons since Creighton left.
16   MCV's current RPI ranking, minus Wichita State. 

If the MVC were a business (something I understand) instead of an athletic conference, we would be using labels like "in serious decline" and "at a tipping point."  Rather than contending something unsupported by reality - "...if done correctly the MVC can survive, and thrive, at 9" - you should be saying ...if our conference makes another mistake like they did 4 years ago, we may never pull out of our current swan dive. 

As to who needs whom more (Valpo or the MVC), I don't much care what MVC fans think about Valpo one way or the other.  Contrary to the MVC, Valpo basketball will continue to prosper either way. It has become a high profile, nationally recognized mid-major program despite having "high school" facilities that people love to mock.  It has prospered without the glitz and glitter of "big city lights" that some fans believe is so critical to basketball success.  The University has already changed leagues once and dominated in both. These factors in combination give me a pretty high level of confidence that Valparaiso men's basketball will continue to prosper whether it stays in the 18th ranked conference or moves to the 16th.   


 

[UNIFTW]

My $.02 on this hasn't really changed yet. 

Unless Murray's football situation has been resolved, and by resolved I mean that:

Murray State will be allowed to complete in the OVC as a football only member for a set period of duration, and by virtue of same they will not be sued by the OVC as an entity or by any other member institution for breach of contract or in any other capacity because of their move to the MVC; or

Murray State will compete as an FCS Independent while maintaining their current fall FCS football schedule, and by virtue of same they will not be sued by the OVC as an entity or by any other member institution for breach of contract or in any other capacity because of their move to the MVC,

I just can't see them entering the MVC for the 2017-2018 season.  Anything less is unresolved.  The next coming weeks should be very interesting!

Here's the deal with MSU football and changing conferences.


1. The MVC doesn't sponsor football. It has nothing to do with this. Though I'm sure discussions about the MVFC making a place for them, or finding them a new home are involved.


2. They couldn't leave OVC football this year no matter what. Schedules are set. Football schedules aren't as able to be modified as basketball schedules. They are set years in advance. The OVC likely makes them ineligible for the conference titles - which doesn't matter for MSU anyway. They can't join the MVFC before 2020. MVFC conference schedules are set through 2019. It's why North Dakota isn't joining the MVFC from the Big Sky until 2020, even though they are joining the Summit from the Big Sky in 2018.


The options for MSU football are this:


A. Continue in the OVC as an affiliate member "full time". This helps the OVC keep it's perfect round robin schedule for the conference, and limits number of OOC games that need to be filled, which is very tough in the FCS.


B. Continue in the OVC until 2020 as an affiliate that is ineligible for the conference automatic bid to the playoffs. This is what happens in almost every situation. It is what North Dakota is doing in the Big Sky - and UND won the Big Sky last year. It's what happened when Georgia State, Coastal Carolina, App State, Georgia Southern, Texas, State, Old Dominion, etc... all moved from their conferences to the FBS but had to play in the old league for a year or two during the transition. It is what Liberty is now doing with their move from the Big South to FBS Independent status.


C. They can join the PFL, though it will probably take a year or two for them to be able to do that due to schedules. This would allow more money to be put into basketball and other sports the MVC wants to be good. They would be in the same league as Drake and Valpo. It makes for a nice hom.


D. Drop football - very unlikely


E. Play indy - which is a death sentence in the FCS. would lead lead to D.






With UND joining the MVFC in 2020 that league is going to be at 11. Adding MSU would allow for a 12 team league with a faux-divisional set up.

[crusaderjoe]

My $.02 on this hasn't really changed yet. 

Unless Murray's football situation has been resolved, and by resolved I mean that:

Murray State will be allowed to complete in the OVC as a football only member for a set period of duration, and by virtue of same they will not be sued by the OVC as an entity or by any other member institution for breach of contract or in any other capacity because of their move to the MVC; or

Murray State will compete as an FCS Independent while maintaining their current fall FCS football schedule, and by virtue of same they will not be sued by the OVC as an entity or by any other member institution for breach of contract or in any other capacity because of their move to the MVC,

I just can't see them entering the MVC for the 2017-2018 season.  Anything less is unresolved.  The next coming weeks should be very interesting!

Here's the deal with MSU football and changing conferences.


1. The MVC doesn't sponsor football. It has nothing to do with this. Though I'm sure discussions about the MVFC making a place for them, or finding them a new home are involved.


2. They couldn't leave OVC football this year no matter what. Schedules are set. Football schedules aren't as able to be modified as basketball schedules. They are set years in advance. The OVC likely makes them ineligible for the conference titles - which doesn't matter for MSU anyway. They can't join the MVFC before 2020. MVFC conference schedules are set through 2019. It's why North Dakota isn't joining the MVFC from the Big Sky until 2020, even though they are joining the Summit from the Big Sky in 2018.


The options for MSU football are this:


A. Continue in the OVC as an affiliate member "full time". This helps the OVC keep it's perfect round robin schedule for the conference, and limits number of OOC games that need to be filled, which is very tough in the FCS.


B. Continue in the OVC until 2020 as an affiliate that is ineligible for the conference automatic bid to the playoffs. This is what happens in almost every situation. It is what North Dakota is doing in the Big Sky - and UND won the Big Sky last year. It's what happened when Georgia State, Coastal Carolina, App State, Georgia Southern, Texas, State, Old Dominion, etc... all moved from their conferences to the FBS but had to play in the old league for a year or two during the transition. It is what Liberty is now doing with their move from the Big South to FBS Independent status.


C. They can join the PFL, though it will probably take a year or two for them to be able to do that due to schedules. This would allow more money to be put into basketball and other sports the MVC wants to be good. They would be in the same league as Drake and Valpo. It makes for a nice hom.


D. Drop football - very unlikely


E. Play indy - which is a death sentence in the FCS. would lead lead to D.






With UND joining the MVFC in 2020 that league is going to be at 11. Adding MSU would allow for a 12 team league with a faux-divisional set up.

Good stuff.  Just a couple of points:

1)  I think we agree that MSU football, at least for the Fall of 2017, needs to be resolved before a move to the MVC can be made.  How this issue is resolved or negotiated by the OVC and MSU is anyone's guess.

2)  With respect to the bolded comments you wrote above, I'm not sure I agree with you.  While technically true, that statement is more relevant to Valparaiso than it is to Murray State in this analysis because VU's football is a non-counter; that is, its fall football schedule and fall football conference affiliation remain completely unaffected by a move to the MVC absolutely.  We're Drake, part deux. Move along, nothing to see here from a Valpo football point of view if we were to make the move to the MVC this year. This isn't necessarily the case for Murray State.  Football in some capacity has to be relevant in this analysis for MSU regardless if it is not sponsored by the MVC.  From an MVC point of view, your comment is accurate.  From an MSU view?  Not sure, IMO.

[vu84v2]

UNIFTW - Thanks for your thoughtful posting. It is good to have your insights in the conversation.

You raise interesting thoughts about football playing into this with Murray State (at Valpo, most everyone is very basketball centric). They are a very average FBS team, but they are a true FBS program and my understanding is that they have a decent environment given their population base. I can't see them moving up to FCS, but I also cannot see them moving to the PFL. In the PFL, Murray State would squash most of the teams like a bug (Valpo included) and I don't see the PFL teams agreeing to have that strong of a conference member. Furthermore, I would think that Murray State seems themselves more akin to Indiana State or SIU in football and would be hard pressed to have regular conference opponents like Drake, Valpo and many of the other very small FBS teams. FBS independent seems like a non-starter, so that leaves the MVFC or playing football only in the OVC. It does not seem likely that the OVC would agree for Murray State to leave in all sports other than football, but remain a member in good standing for football (maybe I am wrong). That leaves a transition for Murray State to the MVC to include membership at some point in the MVFC. I can see Murray riding out several years of limbo in football to make the overall transition, but I don't see them not having a plan for football as part of an agreement.

[elephtheria47]

Murray State isnt having that meeting/conversation if the offer wasnt on the table. Appears to be a done deal with MSU. Is the MVC adding 1, 2, or more?

MSU administration answered the call. Will the administration of Valpo? Having home and homes with Murray State, UNI, Ill st, etc would be NICE.

[vu84v2]

Murray State isnt having that meeting/conversation if the offer wasnt on the table. Appears to be a done deal with MSU. Is the MVC adding 1, 2, or more?

MSU administration answered the call. Will the administration of Valpo? Having home and homes with Murray State, UNI, Ill st, etc would be NICE.

It could be based on an agreed to deal, but it is also very likely that the parties at Murray State that are negotiating with the MVC need to determine with the board of regents what their negotiation range and limits are. The same process would also happen with Valpo. There is no way this is as simple as "MVC makes an offer with demands and the invitee votes" or "Invitee makes a proposal and the MVC decides". Furthermore, while I would love Valpo to be in the MVC and think that it is a really good fit for all parties, Valpo should not give away the farm to do so.

[bigmosmithfan1]

I see posts from people of other MVC schools raising concerns about the post-Drew era. I would argue that there are indeed three 'eras' of Valpo D1 basketball.

-Pre-Drew era (pre-1987): No commitment to college athletics.

Absolutely this. Look, if someone wants to make the argument that VU is unproven in the post-Drew era, go for it. We have one year of sample size, and it's pretty good, but there's no way to prove/disprove it at this point. It's not that the program isn't capable of a backslide (literally every mid-major program is!), but looking pre-Drew era for your evidence is an apples-to-oranges comparison.

Pointing out records from the 1980s (30 years ago, BTW!) neglects to mention that Valpo was one of the most poorly funded Division I programs in the country back then. The AD would pull down a curtain over the then-empty mezzanine seats at the ARC to save $10 per game on cleaning costs. There was zero effort to fundraise for athletics or attract community support. The coaching staff had to borrow cars from the few donors the program had for recruiting trips, since VU wouldn't pay for rental cars (or flights). The only ads in the ARC were on the scoreboard, which was donated by a local 7UP bottler. The team would occasionally ride in vans on road trips instead of a charter bus. Everything was done on the cheap, and the program was in a death spiral because of it. Which is why the local newspaper used to write a nearly-annual column urging VU to drop out of Division I. I used to resent those at the time, but now I realize it was largely voicing the frustration of players and coaches that Valpo needed to step up and do it right or not do it at all. After Homer arrived and beat ND in his first season, the university finally started to get the message, and the program is operated 180 degrees difference than it was back then.

My favorite anecdote underscoring how poorly the program was run in the 1980s was when VU hosted Notre Dame for the dedication game in the ARC, and the name-plates on the scoreboard infamously read "HOME" and "NOTRE DAME". Apparently, the "VALPO" name plate didn't arrive (or someone forgot to order it), and VU was too cheap at the time to pay rush charges to have a new ones made up in time (for the dedication game of your new arena to be played in front of a full house and TV audience!) Then VU athletic staff decided to put up the ND name-plate anyway, making VU look like the no-name team in their own building.

Valpo may have the occasional bad year down the road, but those days are never, ever coming back, and records from that era shouldn't be used to indicate anything other than the complete lack of commitment the former administration had at the time.

[a3uge]

You seem to have an inaccurate view of RPI, or at least of overall conference RPI. The bottom of the league playing a soft schedule is actually a good thing. Remember, RPI is 25% your own winning percentage and 50% your opponents winning percentage. Only 25% is dependent on your opponents opponents winning percentage.

Say Missouri State finishes their ooc schedule 6-6 with an RPI of 220, with a bunch of SWAC and MEAC teams on their schedule.

Drake finishes their ooc schedule 2-10 and has an RPI of 210 because they played Duke, Kansas, and Kentucky.

Which one is better for the conference? Missouri State is the team that's helping the overall RPI of the conference because they have the better win percentage (50% of everyone's RPI calculation)... NOT Drake.

Yes, the top of the league needs to schedule in a way to ensure a top 100 RPI (because arbitrary round numbers matter to selection committee), but the bottom of the league's individual RPIs are rather irrelevant. The perception of a 200 RPI loss is basically the same as a 250 RPI loss. Therefore, a good win loss record for the bottom dwellers is better for the league.

If you take a look at the MAC, they've got this down to a science. Every year their teams have a bad out-of-conference strength of schedule, but their conference RPI is usually strong. The top few teams in the league end up with really good RPI despite never beating anybody decent. The selection committee hasn't caught on to this yet and they've gotten better seeds than a lot of quality mid-majors with better out of conference wins. True, no team is built for an at-large bid in that league, but their top teams typically have great RPIs (didn't really work out this year because everyone beat up on each other).

Who you play, and in turn who your opponents play - especially conference you play twice in a year - and their RPI is important.


Look at 2006-2007 as a perfect example. The MVC finished 6th in the RPI and played an OOC SOS rank of 6th. Records/RPI  of the MVC that year?


7 SIU 26-6 SOS 29
20 CU 22-10 SOS 19
36 MSU 21-10 SOS 43
39 BU 20-12 SOS 21
86 UNI 17-13 SOS 81
100 WSU 16-14 SOS 72
114 DU 16-15 SOS 74
133 UE 14-17 SOS 90
138 ISUR 14-16 SOS 103
139 ISUB 12-18 SOS 54


Compare that to this year where the overall conference record isn't all that much worse - though it is - but the SOS ranks were


WSU 140
ISUR 124
SIU 103
UNI 99
LUC 198
EU 110
MSU 212
BU 135
ISUB 139
DU 146
Conference 11th


Sure, you still have to win to help RPI but SOS plays a MASSIVE factor in it. It's not a coincidence when that SOS mandate went away the bottom of the league fell off the table for RPI. Remember, opponent win % matters. Thus the bottom of the league playing SWAC/MEAC teams that are going to go 1-10 or 3-9 in the OOC kills their RPI, which then kills everyone's RPI. Go look at conference RPI finish and then their SOS rank. It's almost 100% match up


Conf RPI-SOS rank for this last year
1-1
2-2
3-3
4-4
5-5
6-6
7-9
8-8
9-7
10-10
11-12
12-11 - MVC
13-16
14-13
15-14
16-15
17-19
18-18
19-17 - HORIZON
20-20


Get the picture yet? Conference RPI is determined by team RPI. Team RPI is VERY heavily determined by SOS.


Since you used Drake at 2-10 but playing Duke, Kansas, and Kentucky I'll go a head on use this years schedule and remove a the 2 SWAC and 1 WAC games and add those in to see what we end up with. We end up with a total RPI of 265 and an SOS of 77. Still bad but significantly better than 314 for an RPI with an SOS of 146. That kind of domino affect through the entire league following that pattern (not to the extreme of Duke/UK/KU obviously) makes a significant difference.


Understanding the lay out of the formula is one thing. Knowing how it impacts the conference through a domino effect is another. MVC fans know this FAAR better than almost any other conference. We've watched it happen over the last 7 seasons. The records at the bottom of the league haven't really gotten any worse. But the SOS's have gotten significantly worse.

Of course RPI and SOS are related almost 1 to 1. That's because it includes conference members. Take a look at ooc sos to RPI this year:

http://www.rpiforecast.com/live-conf-rpi.html

When it comes to mid major conferences (note I'm not including power conferences due to their scheduling abilities) there's virtually no relationship between OOC SOS and RPI. The 11th ranked Colonial had the  17th rated SOS, the 12th ranked MVC had the 12 rated schedule, and the 13th ranked Sun Belt had the 30th ranked OOC SOS. What you CAN see related is actual winning percentage - the Colonial finished with a 0.5077 percentage, the MVC 0.5031, and the Sun Belt 0.4972.

Edit: just calculated r-values for this year and they're .987 for RPI rank vs OOC W/L % rank and .497 for RPI rank vs OOC SOS rank.


Again, this boils down to the actual formula - your opponents winning percentage matters twice as much as your opponents opponents.

So Missouri State's​ W/L record is twice as important to UNI's RPI than Missouri State's opponents record (UNI's opponent's opponent).

Also, remember, your opponents W/L record impacts RPI more than their raw RPI. Take UNI's schedule - they finished with an RPI of 162 and a SOS of 102. Let's replace their W vs 144 RPI North Dakota with a win vs a better RPI team, NC State (141 RPI). UNI's RPI actually drops TEN points to 172 and their SOS actually gets worse - to 109. This is because North Dakota's W/L record is pretty good.

As for the scheduling mandate removal tanking the conference RPI... I'm sure Creighton leaving had a bit to do with it.

[VULB#62]

Just a note of interest for those of you not following the MVC board.  Jimmy is making quite a strong case for adding UWM as the 12th team in the MVC. Tex is on there duking it out with him. 

http://www.mvcfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=4679&start=36

The MVC board also seems to keep bring Belmont up.          Belmont wants to be the King of the OVC hill for now and forever.  They barely get 2000 to their games, so the only recourse is to win the Automatic Bid as the OVC champion.  They'd be competitive in the MVC but they don't want to settle for that.  They want to be solitary auto-bid on an annual basis. And if Murray state leaves for the MVC, that almost assures them of that.  Big difference in philosophy.

[a3uge]

Just a note of interest for those of you not following the MVC board.  Jimmy is making quite a strong case for adding UWM as the 12th team in the MVC. Tex is on there duking it out with him. 

http://www.mvcfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=4679&start=36

The MVC board also seems to keep bring Belmont up.          Belmont wants to be the King of the OVC hill for now and forever.  They barely get 2000 to their games, so the only recourse is to win the Automatic Bid as the OVC champion.  They'd be competitive in the MVC but they don't want to settle for that.  They want to be solitary auto-bid on an annual basis. And if Murray state leaves for the MVC, that almost assures them of that.  Big difference in philosophy.

Haven't read the Jimmy posts yet, but wasn't he a year ago complaining how awful Amanda Braun is and how terrible she's run the program?

[VU2014]

Ok now we maybe are starting to get leaks (or its just a rumor). Milwaukee is starting to get consideration now apparently.

I know MKE got some early interest from the MVC last time around but their Athletics Department is a nightmare. Its truly a mess, @PantherU mentions it a lot on twitter. Curious how real the interest is.

https://twitter.com/TribStarTodd/status/855558194403438592
https://twitter.com/HoopvilleAdam/status/855593176979124224
https://twitter.com/TribStarTodd/status/855594353821188097
https://twitter.com/FatherHarry1/status/855628597075341312

[VULB#62]

Just a note of interest for those of you not following the MVC board.  Jimmy is making quite a strong case for adding UWM as the 12th team in the MVC. Tex is on there duking it out with him. 

http://www.mvcfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=4679&start=36

The MVC board also seems to keep bring Belmont up.          Belmont wants to be the King of the OVC hill for now and forever.  They barely get 2000 to their games, so the only recourse is to win the Automatic Bid as the OVC champion.  They'd be competitive in the MVC but they don't want to settle for that.  They want to be solitary auto-bid on an annual basis. And if Murray state leaves for the MVC, that almost assures them of that.  Big difference in philosophy.

Haven't read the Jimmy posts yet, but wasn't he a year ago complaining how awful Amanda Braun is and how terrible she's run the program?

Jimmy can't stand her but it was all about her dislike for Jeter and doing everything to undermine him.  Now she has her guy in there and has tied herself to his success.  Jimmy feels that she will do whatever it takes to make him successful.  That is the angle that I see in his MVCFANS posts.  They have the arena, the enrollment, the population and there may be a new practice facility in the works, so they could be a contender.  IMO, way better than UMKC or UNO - plus it brings in Milwaukee.  He's pushing for Murray, Valpo and UWM for 12.  BUT that's on the MVC fan board -- who the heck knows what's going on in the MVC offices??.