Poll
Question:
How many conf. games will we win in January?
Option 1: 8
votes: 3
Option 2: 7
votes: 11
Option 3: 6
votes: 7
Option 4: 5
votes: 2
Option 5: <5
votes: 2
Half of our 16 conference games are in January - 4 at home/4 on the road:
Wed, Jan 2 Loyola-Chicago
Fri, Jan 4 Cleveland State
Wed, Jan 9 @Illinois-Chicago
Sat, Jan 12 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Thu, Jan 17 @Detroit
Sat, Jan 19 Wright State
Wed, Jan 23 Green Bay
Wed, Jan 30 @Youngstown State
Other than still too many turnovers, I think we are definitely starting to come together. I'm going to go out on a limb a little bit and say we will win our 4 home games and 3 of the 4 games on the road. 3 of the 4 away games will be difficult, no doubt - UIC, Detroit and YSU. I think we can beat YSU and their short bench, and split with Detroit and UIC.
4 home wins a split on the road, hope I'm wrong!
In the preseason I optimistically predicted Valpo would go 10-4 in the non-conference, 12-4 in conference, win the Bracketbuster, and win the conference tournament. The team has held to my expectations thus far, so I will stick with that and suggest 6-2 in the first half of conference play. Most of all, I just hope everyone stays healthy.
3 out of 4 on the road and at home. Loyola or Cleveland State trips Valpo up at home as the team is still trying to come together and limit its turnovers. Potential upside to 7.
If Cleveland State trips up Valpo at the ARC, we've got problems. The injury plagued Vikings have lost their last two games against D-I opponents by 34 to St. Bonaventure and by 30 to Akron. They're 0-5 on the road. Now Loyola, they're very scary home or away.
Quote from: chef on December 30, 2012, 09:14:45 AM
If Cleveland State trips up Valpo at the ARC, we've got problems. The injury plagued Vikings have lost their last two games against D-I opponents by 34 to St. Bonaventure and by 30 to Akron. They're 0-5 on the road. Now Loyola, they're very scary home or away.
Then it's almost guaranteed we'll lose to the Vikings at home. :)
No matter what, it could be a trap game. I would never over look a Gary Waters' team. He's not going to pack up his bags and leave Valpo before he puts up a real fight.
Waters:
"Well, Valpo sure does have a lot of players that can score. They have so many veteran players who can score and have transfered in they should call this Grand Central Station."I'll say 7-1 for the heck of it. This Valpo team certainly is capable of it. Almost every one (except maybe 1 or 2) of the 8 games will be close. The games will come down to the last 2 or 3 plays. Maybe the Crusaders have finally turned a corner and will slowly turn the number of turnovers down which would help the most. It was great to see Ryan breakout on the road and actually score a bunch.
i voted optimistically for 6-2. i think yesterday's gutsy win at murray state will really help on the road in conference.
The only games Valpo could lose in conference play are at Detroit, at YSU and at GB.
Quote from: HC on December 30, 2012, 09:20:01 PM
The only games Valpo could lose in conference play are at Detroit, at YSU and at GB.
Does this mean these are the only three HL teams tougher to beat at home than Oakland?
This site http://www.rpiforecast.com/index2.html (http://www.rpiforecast.com/index2.html) runs 10,000 simulations using Sagarin's rankings. Based on that, the most likely result is Valpo, Detroit, and UIC finishing in a three way tie for first at 10-6. Not endorsing, just informing.
6-2 in January.
Sliman, are you comparing the way our team played at Oakland with the way they played in their last 3?
Oakland is better then their record, just like UIC's record is not a reflection of their ability. I'm saying the only three places I personally could see Valpo having trouble is those three.
If anyone else wants to vote in the opinion poll, the opportunity is still there until tomorrow (Wed) at 6a Central.
To the 3 supreme optimists who predicted 8-0, I'm pulling for you all the way!
Go Crusaders!
Quote from: wh on January 02, 2013, 06:07:52 AM
To the 3 supreme optimists who predicted 8-0, I'm pulling for you all the way!
Go Crusaders!
boy wouldn't that make for a great start to the conference season!
Not sure what our January record will turn out to be. I think the three-game road swing (@UIC, @UWM, and @Detroit) will probably be the most important three-game stretch we will play during the conference season. We need to win 2 out of those 3 games, I think, to contend for the title.
Paul
I didn't vote but just for the record I'll go with 7-1 and that loss will not be tonight vs Loyola.
I didn't vote in time either, but will say 7-1, with a loss at Detroit.
I'm one of the 3 optimists (maybe the other 2 are the same 2 that also predicted the MSU win?). I just feel really good about the dimension Dority gives to the team, and how they are starting to gel.
The more you get into advanced stats, the better we look. I'll try to work some more of them into the preview.
Who really knows what team will show up? This Crusader team could go 7-1 or 4-4 in January. The only thing we know for sure is they won't go 8-0 in January. I think we all hoped for 8-0 but there was no real chance Valpo had of winning all the January games. Maybe it was good to get that home conference loss out of the way.
Until we see some offensive flow and some decent 3-point shooting every game will be an adventure. But if the 3s starting hitting, maybe lose just 2-3 more.
I always thought Jay Harris had a ceiling in his game, but the guy was a dead-eye 3-pt shooter who could get you 6 or 9 points really fast.
Quote from: chef on December 30, 2012, 09:14:45 AMNow Loyola, they're very scary home or away.
The prophetic chef!
Quote from: crusadermoe on January 06, 2013, 08:39:16 AM
Until we see some offensive flow and some decent 3-point shooting every game will be an adventure. But if the 3s starting hitting, maybe lose just 2-3 more.
I always thought Jay Harris had a ceiling in his game, but the guy was a dead-eye 3-pt shooter who could get you 6 or 9 points really fast.
Jay Harris shot 32.1% from 3 as a freshman, while the team hit at the same rate.
Jay shot 29.2% from 3 as a sophomore (the worst of any regular other than Buggs), while the team hit 34.0%
This year's team is hitting 35.6% from 3.
Yes, Jay could get you 6 or 9 points really fast, but the vast majority of his time here, he wasn't hitting those shots.
Jay always seemed like he could shoot the 3 much better than he did, but he took so many wild and far out shots that it brought his % down. I don't miss him or Edwards
Man, two different threads currently discussing Jay Harris' (in)ability from 3-pt land.
If you're reading this, man, we are so totally over you. :)
Yeah, it's a slow week. Except for the Horizon expansion rumors on the other thread.
Game last night in Miami was such a snooze.
Who would have thought after the opening loss to Loyola that we would be within 1 more win of a 7-1 1st half? I will post a "Looking to February" poll immediately following the YSU game. Go Crusaders!