With the amount of turnovers we had during the first half of this game it got me wondering where we have ranked in the past 5-6 years in turnovers per game. You can't help but notice a trend upwards (worse) since Bryce took over. The theory of us being "young" doesn't hold water as last year's experienced team was plagued by turnovers also. I actually think last year's team underachieved greatly due to the frequency of turnovers.
If Bryce is wanting to take this program to the next level as he says he has to figure this out. We are giving too many possessions away to win meaningful games. No matter how good our FG% is we keeping giving away scoring chances and we are losing because of it. Are we running the right offense? Do we not focus on the right things in practice? Are we trying to play at a pace we shouldn't be playing at?
2013-2014 332 out of 334 96% thru 2/27/14
2012-2013 245 out of 345 71%
2011-2012 238 out of 338 70%
2010-2011 195 out of 336 58%
2009-2010 175 out of 334 52.3%
2008-2009 225 out of 330 77.7%
2007-2008 83 out of 338 24.5%
Source is from NCAA's ranking summary site. http://web1.ncaa.org/stats/StatsSrv/ranksummary (http://web1.ncaa.org/stats/StatsSrv/ranksummary)
Thank you for these stats. It helps me with the argument I have been making that this is the worst team I have watched in my 15 years of Valpo fandom. Even though we lost a lot in 2009-2010, I equate my rankings based on how frustrating we are to watch. I would rather see us playing fundamental basketball and missing shots, than throwing the ball away. Obviously, winning is great by itself, but winning ugly is not enjoyable to me either.
I won't miss this group of seniors. Dority is alright...pretty selfish though. Coleman, moussa, and Bobby are all below average in my book.
Sent from my NX008HD8G using Tapatalk
I would imagine the turnover numbers will decrease. I decided to look at how often each player, excluding Chadwick and Davidson, per 40 minutes of playing time.
Gueye - 1 turnover per 7.33 minutes of play
Carter - 1/9.83 mins
Williams - 1/11.61
Capobianco - 1/12.39
Dority 1/14.63
Yeo 1/14.81
Peters 1/14.93
Adekoya 1/15.23
Fernandez 1/17.56
Coleman 1/18.09
I think the stats speak for themselves. 3 of the top 5 in amount of time between turnovers are seniors. Also the worst culprit was Moussa and Vashil who plays the same position no less, was one of our most consistent players in this aspect of the game. There was only one senior, who was in the top 5 in not turning over the ball. I really think we'll see these numbers get better since some of our worst offenders were seniors.
Is it true that there are only 334 teams now? I wouldn't think 11 teams left D-1 after last year
Quote from: valpotx on March 01, 2014, 09:06:50 PM
Is it true that there are only 334 teams now? I wouldn't think 11 teams left D-1 after last year
According to Statsheet.com Valpo has the 13th most TOPG of 351 teams in D-1. For the past 10 years:
13-14 13th
12-13 96th
11-12 109th
10-11 148th
09-10 169th
08-09 82nd
07-08 254th
06-07 75th
05-06 172nd
04-05 111th
In any event, Chairback's original point remains the same -
turnovers have become a trademark of Valpo men's basketball.
I don't have time to look up my post on the subject, but while your stats are nice, they don't tell the full story.
The stat to look at is not TO per game, or TO per minute played. It's TO%--that is, the percentage of your possessions that end in a turnover.
That's apples-to-apples, and I assure you the picture is worse still there.
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on March 02, 2014, 07:00:15 AM
The stat to look at is not TO per game, or TO per minute played. It's TO%--that is, the percentage of your possessions that end in a turnover.
I think you will find that in comparing Valpo to the rest of the college basketball world over multiple seasons, the relative difference between turnovers/game vs. turnovers:possessions is almost nil.
Quote from: wh on March 02, 2014, 02:26:42 AM
In any event, Chairback's original point remains the same - turnovers have become a trademark of Valpo men's basketball.
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on March 02, 2014, 07:00:15 AM
That's apples-to-apples, and I assure you the picture is worse still there.
Speaking of apples I'd love some dough filled with an apple based fruit-filling for dessert today. Oh, blimey, that is just another turnover! Oh well. It couldn't hurt to have just one more turnover.
(http://cdn.sheknows.com/articles/apple-turnover.jpg)
or could it?
(http://media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/5a/c7/8c/5ac78c75b0ccc805c484bf179f2d54b5.jpg)
Quote from: wh on March 02, 2014, 02:26:42 AMturnovers have become a trademark of Valpo men's basketball.
I agree and said this in the chat room yesterday while watching the game. Another trademark of valpo basketball is perimeter shooting. We have always shot well from 3 point line but in the second half yesterday, only had 4 attempts.
That leads me to say, against teams who high pressure at or beyond the arch, we struggle. WSU, CSU. The only teams that swept us.
Quote from: wh on March 02, 2014, 02:26:42 AMAccording to Statsheet.com Valpo has the 13th most TOPG of 351 teams in D-1. For the past 10 years:13-14 13th12-13 96th11-12 109th10-11 148th09-10 169th08-09 82nd07-08 254th06-07 75th05-06 172nd04-05 111th
The assist to turnover ratios for Lexus (1.4/1) and Keith (1.17/1) are not good but both are essentially freshman and should make great improvements. For comparison purposes only Buggs' senior season number was about 1.45 to 1 and that was easily the best for his career.
Two seasons somewhat went against the trend. In 09-10 we had a return of always good 5th yr McPherson who delivered at 1.65 to 1 and a freshman Kurth who came in at 1.5 to 1. What did Wood do that season? Less than 1 assist for every turnover. 07-08 was the high water mark for excellence with McPherson and Jarryd Loyd providing their reliable play while some guy named Jake Diebler came in at 2.71 to 1. I am not sure if VU has ever had another player in that range. What were Sykes numbers?
In response to Chairbacks' questions I think that good teams force us to play to our weaknesses by taking away the things we prefer to do. Next year as a much more experienced group we should move dramatically in a positive direction (nowhere but up from here). It is also obvious that any team that tries to play the modern game with less than 4 solid 3-point shooters on the floor all the time is at a decided disadvantage.
I'd say it's different enough. PLUS when you combine it with our DISMALLY AWFUL takeaway %:
(I refuse to say we're "13th" because that sounds like a good thing. Just remember there are 351 D1 teams, or 350 plus Chicago State.)
TURNOVER RATE:
2014: 22.1, 345th nationally (tied for 7th worst)
TURNOVERS FORCED:
2014: 15.0, 306th nationally
will update when i find where i can get the earlier numbers.
earlier rant here: http://www.valpofanzone.com/forum/index.php?topic=1720.msg41191#msg41191 (http://www.valpofanzone.com/forum/index.php?topic=1720.msg41191#msg41191)
and note TO% has gone UP 3% since then!
The piece that was really missing from this team was a dominant presence down low on offense. Last year we had KVW who pretty much scored at will in the HL. Vashil made steps in the right direction as the season went on and next year I really think he'll look like a different player.
In many games this season we sorely missed that threat under the basket for high percentage buckets and was really a big reason why this team was so streaky on offense. At times we had issues getting into the lane for those high percentage layups.
Quote from: justducky on March 02, 2014, 01:54:20 PM
In response to Chairbacks' questions I think that good teams force us to play to our weaknesses by taking away the things we prefer to do. Next year as a much more experienced group we should move dramatically in a positive direction (nowhere but up from here). It is also obvious that any team that tries to play the modern game with less than 4 solid 3-point shooters on the floor all the time is at a decided disadvantage.
No question that conference opponents discovered our weaknesses during the 1st half and exploited them in the 2nd. One example is how much space defenders have been giving Jubril. They are giving him wide open looks from 12-15' out on the baseline because they have learned he is not a scoring threat from that distance. I'm guessing that's the biggest reason he's been getting less playing time lately. That's the difference between us and a team like CSU. You don't dare sluff off anyone on their team because everyone is a scoring threat. It also makes double teaming the low post that much more difficult.
That and his terrible decision making when he passes the ball.
I just don't buy the theory of next year should be better in regards to TO's. Better = acceptable. It's been bad for awhile, not just this year. Something is not right.
TX made a comment about it being one of the worst teams to watch. I have found this to be true also due to the constant turnovers. It's really hard to watch them play. At the start of this year I have only missed 3 games in 25 years (one being the UNC Wilmington game with Brett Blizzard whom I wanted to see). I have not gone to 4 out of the last 5 home games. You can predict this team's moves very easily most of the game. Before a pass or drive you can call the turnover before it happens.
I will miss Dority as I think he is one tough kid and he has carried this team this season. He has to create shots on his own a lot of times when the offense stalls frequently.
I hate to say it but we will be one and done in this tourney.
Quote from: Chairback on March 02, 2014, 07:49:36 PM
I hate to say it but we will be one and done in this tourney.
Dammnnnn that hurts :'(
Quote from: Chairback on March 02, 2014, 07:49:36 PMI hate to say it but we will be one and done in this tourney.
...you do know we're playing UIC, right?
You know, the ones from FLAMEOUT 2014?
The ones who haven't won a D1 home game in nearly a year? (And won't for another 8 months, at least?)
The team that we beat by an average 20 points this year?
The team Bryce Drew's never lost to?
The team we haven't lost to IN FIVE YEARS?
I mean, there are more valid ways to express your feelings of disappointment about a team in a transitional year.
Let me just ask another question...
YOU WENT TO ALL THE GAMES IN 08-09 BUT NOT THIS ONE?
What, were you going for your Fandom Endurance Badge that year?
I would think this year is far more entertaining...starting with the fact you don't know whether Team Jekyll or Team Hyde will show up.
(Speaking of which, I'm going to go back to the BPI thread.)
I'm with LaPorte on this one. This year's team was far more exciting and interesting to watch than the 2008-2009 team. Not even close.
For one thing, that team got the 9 seed and was unsurprisingly one and done. This year's team got the 4 seed and should make it to the semis.
Quote from: HC on March 02, 2014, 02:55:25 PM
That and his terrible decision making when he passes the ball.
Interesting that you say that about Adekoya since he had better numbers in assists (more) and turnovers (less) per minute played than Peters.
Of the non guards, Jubril has the best assist to turnover ratio on the team. Plus when you consider that about half his turnovers where on illegal screens, it's hard to make an argument that he makes terrible decisions when passing the ball.
Idk, seems lately he hasn't played real well (I suppose that could be said about several people). Overall I'm very happy with his play and am excited for his future here.
3/4 games he has had more turnovers then assists. We haven't played real well these last 4 games.....
Quote from: StlVUFan on March 02, 2014, 11:38:41 PMI'm with LaPorte on this one.
you say that like it's rare
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on March 03, 2014, 07:32:26 AM
Quote from: StlVUFan on March 02, 2014, 11:38:41 PMI'm with LaPorte on this one.
you say that like it's rare
Oh.... Come on - everyone else is wonder how much you paid him..... :lol:
Following is our conference ranking for Turnovers/Game (conference games only) for the past 18 seasons:
1st is worst
13-14 1
12-13 1
11-12 3
10-11 4
09-10 3
08-09 2
07-08 4
06-07 1
05-06 5
04-05 3
03-04 2
02-03 5
01-02 7
00-01 4
99-00 3
98-99 3
97-98 6
96-97 7
Of note:
--Avg. Horizon ranking 2.6; avg. Mid Con ranking 4.2
--Last year's "1st is worst" ranking is far more puzzling than this year's, given the dramatic difference in experienced players
--Look at 96-97 and 97-98; it always helps to have a future NBA player running the point
Subsequent observation:
--We've had higher turnovers than average for the past 12 consecutive years. That says 2 things to me: (1) our turnover problem is not a recent development by any stretch, and (2) we may be drastically overrating the importance of turnovers given the number of conference championships and above average finishes we have had relative to our competition. Am I on to something here, or is this nonsensical?
It would be interesting to see this compared with possessions per game. We're probably playing at a faster tempo than some of the previous years; is this a factor?
I think the number one factor is the style of play of the point guard. Guys like Bryce Drew, Dwayne Toatley and Greg Tonagel were incredibly sure handed with the ball and great decision makers on where the ball needs to go. Ali Berdiel, Jarryd Loyd, and Erik Buggs were more risk takers. Notice that Berdiel, Loyd and Buggs rank among our all-time leaders in assists and turnovers. This year has been a combination of a lot of things, with the incredible amount of illegal screens at the top of the list.
Quote from: sliman on March 03, 2014, 10:43:38 AMIt would be interesting to see this compared with possessions per game. We're probably playing at a faster tempo than some of the previous years; is this a factor?
Again, that's why TO% is the stat that tells you the most: because tempo-free.
22.1% of our possessions end in a turnover. There are 345 D1 teams that do better than that.
/story
Quote from: FWalum on March 02, 2014, 11:47:18 PM
Quote from: HC on March 02, 2014, 02:55:25 PM
That and his terrible decision making when he passes the ball.
Interesting that you say that about Adekoya since he had better numbers in assists (more) and turnovers (less) per minute played than Peters.
I would say that Jubril's issue may have been that he held on to the ball too long or made easy passes too quickly. He didn't shoot very often and I remember many times Jubril standing at the edge of the arc (sans "h") trying to figure out what to do with the ball. Unless Adekoya had a lane to the basket he was 2 to 3 seconds wasted off the shot clock. I will say there were times Jubril made some awesome moves around the basket and got us points in crucial situations.
Quote from: bbtds on March 03, 2014, 01:30:55 PM
Quote from: FWalum on March 02, 2014, 11:47:18 PM
Quote from: HC on March 02, 2014, 02:55:25 PM
That and his terrible decision making when he passes the ball.
Interesting that you say that about Adekoya since he had better numbers in assists (more) and turnovers (less) per minute played than Peters.
I would say that Jubril's issue may have been that he held on to the ball too long or made easy passes too quickly. He didn't shoot very often and I remember many times Jubril standing at the edge of the arc (sans "h") trying to figure out what to do with the ball. Unless Adekoya had a lane to the basket he was 2 to 3 seconds wasted off the shot clock. I will say there were times Jubril made some awesome moves around the basket and got us points in crucial situations.
Both Nickerson and Adekoya came here wanting to play some 3 and I would assume that it has been Victors' primary focus to date and is Jubrils' off season challenge to improve their 3 point shooting. Having either forward position only shooting 22% or lower from 3 is just unthinkable in today's game. I can not even imagine how we could win conference next year or how we could ever put both of them on the floor together if both are shooting under 28% from 3. We will have to get the floor properly spread for Lexus and Keith to exploit the room that will be left in the middle. Even Michael Jordan didn't do so well taking it to the middle going 1 on 3. It is also much easier to drive around a defender guarding you closely than one who gives you plenty of room and the deep passing lanes also open up better, with both reducing turnovers.
As much as I already like Jubril and look forward to seeing Victor play it remains their responsibility to provide what the team will need or we will be seeing a lot more of Clay at the 3 and Alec at the 4 than we now expect.
Quote from: justducky on March 03, 2014, 04:43:28 PM
Quote from: bbtds on March 03, 2014, 01:30:55 PM
Quote from: FWalum on March 02, 2014, 11:47:18 PM
Quote from: HC on March 02, 2014, 02:55:25 PM
That and his terrible decision making when he passes the ball.
Interesting that you say that about Adekoya since he had better numbers in assists (more) and turnovers (less) per minute played than Peters.
I would say that Jubril's issue may have been that he held on to the ball too long or made easy passes too quickly. He didn't shoot very often and I remember many times Jubril standing at the edge of the arc (sans "h") trying to figure out what to do with the ball. Unless Adekoya had a lane to the basket he was 2 to 3 seconds wasted off the shot clock. I will say there were times Jubril made some awesome moves around the basket and got us points in crucial situations.
Both Nickerson and Adekoya came here wanting to play some 3 and I would assume that it has been Victors' primary focus to date and is Jubrils' off season challenge to improve their 3 point shooting. Having either forward position only shooting 22% or lower from 3 is just unthinkable in today's game. I can not even imagine how we could win conference next year or how we could ever put both of them on the floor together if both are shooting under 28% from 3. We will have to get the floor properly spread for Lexus and Keith to exploit the room that will be left in the middle. Even Michael Jordan didn't do so well taking it to the middle going 1 on 3. It is also much easier to drive around a defender guarding you closely than one who gives you plenty of room and the deep passing lanes also open up better, with both reducing turnovers.
As much as I already like Jubril and look forward to seeing Victor play it remains their responsibility to provide what the team will need or we will be seeing a lot more of Clay at the 3 and Alec at the 4 than we now expect.
I would love for someone (maybe chef??) to tell us what to expect from Nickerson. My guess is that he will be a bigger version of Jordan Coleman. Take a look at the team picture:
http://www.valpoathletics.com/mbasketball/roster/ (http://www.valpoathletics.com/mbasketball/roster/)
Nickerson is standing next to Jubril. If he isn't two inches taller it's mighty close. So you have (I hope) a 6'7"(6'8"??) athletic guy who can drive to the hoop and defend. I think he might help solve several issues.
What are we supposed to expect out of Nick Davidson for the next 3 years?
I have watched Nickerson shooting alone or working with a staff member on 5 or 6 different occasions. He definitely has 3-pt. range and is excellent from the baseline from any distance. He has excellent form, as well. That said, I have yet to see him shoot off the run, stop and pop, juke or anything else other than shooting undefended, spot-up jump shots with his feet set and unlimited time to unload.
Nickerson transferred from Charlotte and is taller than Valpo's other 3's. How could he not be better? We would have won the Saint Louis, Detroit @ Valpo, Mercer and quite possibly ETSU games if Victor had played this season. After all he was in the ESPN top 100 for his HS class of 2008. There I got that out of the way.
Now let's take Victor at face value and if he's very good then that is a bonus and if he is average let's not jump on anyone for thinking he should have been better. Nickerson will be who he is. Let's repeat that. Nickerson will be who he is. Not worse or better.
Quote from: historyman on March 03, 2014, 06:22:40 PMHS class of 2008
no way that's true. There I got that out of the way.
Confirmation: http://www.valpoathletics.com/mbasketball/roster/2013-14/6563/e-victor-nickerson/ (http://www.valpoathletics.com/mbasketball/roster/2013-14/6563/e-victor-nickerson/)
Quotehelped squad to state championship as a freshman in 2008
why does that matter? rankings from 2011 are more helpful and accurate today than 2008.
also, "'X' will be who he is. Not worse or better" is tautological...how does that advance any discussion?
Quote from: historyman on March 03, 2014, 06:22:40 PMNickerson transferred from Charlotte and is taller than Valpo's other 3's. How could he not be better? We would have won the Saint Louis, Detroit @ Valpo, Mercer and quite possibly ETSU games if Victor had played this season. After all he was in the ESPN top 100 for his HS class of 2008. There I got that out of the way.
If this is true then we should all meet just behind the VU bench as the UIC game ends so that we can carry Victor off the floor in anticipation of his future glory! Even if we lose to UIC we will still have plenty to celebrate. :thumbsup: Maybe we can carry historyman off too just for bringing this to our attention!
Quote from: Valpofan00 on March 03, 2014, 05:01:04 PMWhat are we supposed to expect out of Nick Davidson for the next 3 years?
What I was expecting and what I am now expecting are two very different things. Some players do mature and peak earlier than others and in those cases their accumulation of basketball knowledge will continue at the group pace but their execution skills may grow much slower. So how does Nick now fit in?
Because Nick was the cornerstone first commitment that then helped bring in Clay, Lexus, and Jubril (all of which he knew) I do not think he will want to leave "his class" for greener pastures. Somebody brought up Seth Colclasure as an example of someone who stuck around for 4 years to develop his skills and earn his playing time and I think Nick might fit that mold.
I think if E. Victor is healthy he'll be a big part of the team next season. He's very athletic and plays with a real high motor. He's 3-pt shot is more than adequate. His biggest strength is how hard he plays. Unfortunately he's going to miss a lot of time on the court this summer because of an injury.
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on March 03, 2014, 06:44:05 PMQuote from: historyman on March 03, 2014, 06:22:40 PMHS class of 2008
no way that's true. There I got that out of the way. Confirmation: http://www.valpoathletics.com/mbasketball/roster/2013-14/6563/e-victor-nickerson/ (http://www.valpoathletics.com/mbasketball/roster/2013-14/6563/e-victor-nickerson/) Quotehelped squad to state championship as a freshman in 2008
why does that matter? rankings from 2011 are more helpful and accurate today than 2008. also, "'X' will be who he is. Not worse or better" is tautological...how does that advance any discussion?
Whatever claim was made it was made in a very facetious way. It didn't matter if it's true or not. Victor will still be Victor at Valpo. If you of all people can't advance discussion without inflating these players reputation beyond their ability to fulfill that reputation than I don't know who can. I'm just asking for some rational thinking for the discussion.
Back to turnovers.
When I look at turnovers, I ususally look at turnover margin, which takes into account the pace of play and our ability to cause turnovers on the other team. Here are some recent stats:
Year Turnover Margin NCAA Rank
2014 -4.4 342
2013 -1.3 260
2012 -2.6 310
2011 0.9 113
2010 -0.3 191
2009 0.0 165
|
As others have stated, turnovers are really this teams achilles heal. Our ranking in the HL for TO margin is of course last. The surprising thing is that VU is 3.4 TOs per game more than any other team. We are giving up more than three posessions per game to each team, sometimes more.
The other areas that need attention are Assist/TO ratio and personal fouls per game, where we rank 284 and 282, respectively.
To be fair, this team should also be commended on their NCAA ranking in the following categories:
FG% Defense: ranked 23rd
FT%: ranked 35th
Rebound Margin: ranked 29th
Blocked shots/game: ranked 35th
stats from: http://web1.ncaa.org/stats/StatsSrv/ranksummary?sportCode=MBB (http://web1.ncaa.org/stats/StatsSrv/ranksummary?sportCode=MBB) click on Division I, then this season, then most recent week, then find Valpo to get stats.
Quote from: covufan on March 04, 2014, 03:56:38 PM
Back to turnovers.
When I look at turnovers, I ususally look at turnover margin, which takes into account the pace of play and our ability to cause turnovers on the other team. Here are some recent stats:
Year Turnover Margin NCAA Rank
2014 -4.4 342
2013 -1.3 260
2012 -2.6 310
2011 0.9 113
2010 -0.3 191
2009 0.0 165
|
As others have stated, turnovers are really this teams achilles heal. Our ranking in the HL for TO margin is of course last. The surprising thing is that VU is 3.4 TOs per game more than any other team. We are giving up more than three posessions per game to each team, sometimes more.
The other areas that need attention are Assist/TO ratio and personal fouls per game, where we rank 284 and 282, respectively.
To be fair, this team should also be commended on their NCAA ranking in the following categories:
FG% Defense: ranked 23rd
FT%: ranked 35th
Rebound Margin: ranked 29th
Blocked shots/game: ranked 35th
stats from: http://web1.ncaa.org/stats/StatsSrv/ranksummary?sportCode=MBB (http://web1.ncaa.org/stats/StatsSrv/ranksummary?sportCode=MBB) click on Division I, then this season, then most recent week, then find Valpo to get stats.
Bottom line: In the last three years Your stats (which I like) say that Bryce has got to adjust his coaching approach. His O is too prone to TOs. Makes sense to me. But, then, I am a FB guy who belives that the base is the defense and you just need to score 1 point more than the other guy.
Food for thought:
(http://s29.postimg.org/x2nqfxt7r/Untitled_spreadsheet_Sheet1.jpg)
While this year was as bad as we thought, it hasn't been so awful always. Here's the last 7 years. Bold indicates the best performance during the period and italics the worst.
2008 was our best year (and remains the last time we won a postseason game). This year was even worse than 2009 404 YEAR NOT FOUND, if you can believe it. Because while the raw numbers were worse that year (TO/PG and TO%), everyone else got much better (i.e. posting 2009's raw numbers in 2014 would have been even worse) at ball control in the intervening five years.
We gave away 4.2 possessions a game that we did not get back. We averaged 1.017 points per possession this year. So we gave away 4.27 points per game. Let's say 4 points a game, just for simplicity's sake, and I'm not looking at each individual game, which would be more accurate, because, obviously. We'll just look at the result.
For the record that would have meant we would have won
--Mercer (because no OT)
--St. Louis
--Detroit, and
--Columbia.
We'd be 22-12 and still playing, having posted our second-best record in the last 7 years. You could even make the case that we'd have beaten OHIO (4-pt loss) and be 23-11, with FIVE victories over teams in the Dance.
(Instead, with so many turnovers, we can barely beat a dance team. but i digress.)
Finally (and I thought about posting this in coaching) but I posted the averages for this span under each coach.
We have half a turnover more per game under Bryce. Doesn't seem like much, but it takes us from the very middle of the pack under Homer down to the 23rd percentile. Turnover % is 7.4% higher under Bryce, and the fall even more severe (from just upper-half to bottom septile, if that's a thing).
Under Homer, we never gave up as much as a net TO/pg, and even finished net POSITIVE in 2011! But Bryce is looking at almost 3 TO/pg.
Just for fun (and by fun i mean "a dong-punch to your soul"): those TOs last year were worth 1.6 ppg and possibly two more wins (Nebraska & Oakland) for a record of (gulp) 28-6.
Year 1 of the B-Drew era, the TO diff was worth 2.64 ppg and possibly two MORE wins (Oakland AG'IN, and Milwaukee I) for a record of 24-10.
So Bryce Drew is 66-36 (.647), but could be 75-27 (.735) if we had just broke EVEN on turnovers with our opponents. Ye gods.
Quote from: historyman on March 04, 2014, 12:40:07 PM
If you of all people can't advance discussion without inflating these players reputation beyond their ability to fulfill that reputation than I don't know who can. I'm just asking for some rational thinking for the discussion.
As I have stated before...rational thinking when it comes to Valpo basketball isn't exactly a strength of this group.
Quote from: milanmiracle on March 23, 2014, 05:22:26 PMAs I have stated before...rational thinking when it comes to Valpo basketball isn't exactly a strength of this group.
perhaps posting that beneath 500+ words of (mostly) sober statistical analysis of trends of the last seven years wasn't the best place to position such a statement
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on March 23, 2014, 08:04:15 PM
Quote from: milanmiracle on March 23, 2014, 05:22:26 PMAs I have stated before...rational thinking when it comes to Valpo basketball isn't exactly a strength of this group.
perhaps posting that beneath 500+ words of (mostly) sober statistical analysis of trends of the last seven years wasn't the best place to position such a statement
touché. Well played sir. ;D
That being said the point is still valid.
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on March 23, 2014, 08:04:15 PM
Quote from: milanmiracle on March 23, 2014, 05:22:26 PMAs I have stated before...rational thinking when it comes to Valpo basketball isn't exactly a strength of this group.
perhaps posting that beneath 500+ words of (mostly) sober statistical analysis of trends of the last seven years wasn't the best place to position such a statement
OK, since you were fishing for a compliment allow me to give it. I might have even spent 15 minutes thinking about it after I read it (most of your posts require more like 15 milliseconds ::) ). You assembled lots of good information but from it I have been able to conclude very little that has not been already said that might help reverse the trend. There are a great many factors which contribute to these elevated numbers so there are a great number of issues in need of attention before the trend is reversed.
Since milan would like to limit us to rational thought I am only going to predict that from where we now stand (near the bottom of Div. 1) there is only one direction that we can go. I think. ???
I admit it: This is a very dumb question to much smarter BB aficionados that me -- Given our limited resources (i.e., no 5 star players) why don't we play like Columbia (within our limits, but with intensity and focus)? Columbia has now advanced to the third round of the CIT doing what they do -- boring play but few turnovers and tough defense.
Quote from: justducky on March 23, 2014, 10:16:03 PMSince milan would like to limit us to rational thought I am only going to predict that from where we now stand (near the bottom of Div. 1) there is only one direction that we can go. I think.
Not fishing--no need. Though yes, my posts seem to either require 15 or 0.15, nothing in between.
I think what we have to hope for is what you're hinting at--regression to the mean--otherwise we have a trend. I think in our favor we have freshmen running point and big men who alternately have trouble setting screens or catching cleanly in the post. If (as) that improves, as you say, nowhere to go. If it doesn't significantly improve, then I think you have to entertain the narrative of a "players' coach" who encourages free-thinking, risk-taking, etc.
regression to the mean: our hope for 2015!
poet.
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on March 22, 2014, 08:23:17 PM
Food for thought:
(http://s29.postimg.org/x2nqfxt7r/Untitled_spreadsheet_Sheet1.jpg)
While this year was as bad as we thought, it hasn't been so awful always. Here's the last 7 years. Bold indicates the best performance during the period and italics the worst.
2008 was our best year (and remains the last time we won a postseason game). This year was even worse than 2009 404 YEAR NOT FOUND, if you can believe it. Because while the raw numbers were worse that year (TO/PG and TO%), everyone else got much better (i.e. posting 2009's raw numbers in 2014 would have been even worse) at ball control in the intervening five years.
We gave away 4.2 possessions a game that we did not get back. We averaged 1.017 points per possession this year. So we gave away 4.27 points per game. Let's say 4 points a game, just for simplicity's sake, and I'm not looking at each individual game, which would be more accurate, because, obviously. We'll just look at the result.
For the record that would have meant we would have won
--Mercer (because no OT)
--St. Louis
--Detroit, and
--Columbia.
We'd be 22-12 and still playing, having posted our second-best record in the last 7 years. You could even make the case that we'd have beaten OHIO (4-pt loss) and be 23-11, with FIVE victories over teams in the Dance.
(Instead, with so many turnovers, we can barely beat a dance team. but i digress.)
Finally (and I thought about posting this in coaching) but I posted the averages for this span under each coach.
We have half a turnover more per game under Bryce. Doesn't seem like much, but it takes us from the very middle of the pack under Homer down to the 23rd percentile. Turnover % is 7.4% higher under Bryce, and the fall even more severe (from just upper-half to bottom septile, if that's a thing).
Under Homer, we never gave up as much as a net TO/pg, and even finished net POSITIVE in 2011! But Bryce is looking at almost 3 TO/pg.
Just for fun (and by fun i mean "a dong-punch to your soul"): those TOs last year were worth 1.6 ppg and possibly two more wins (Nebraska & Oakland) for a record of (gulp) 28-6.
Year 1 of the B-Drew era, the TO diff was worth 2.64 ppg and possibly two MORE wins (Oakland AG'IN, and Milwaukee I) for a record of 24-10.
So Bryce Drew is 66-36 (.647), but could be 75-27 (.735) if we had just broke EVEN on turnovers with our opponents. Ye gods.
I was thinking of what to fix for breakfast when I happen to read this post about turnovers. I haven't seen a post from Laporte like this in a while.
Also it reminded me this basketball season there will be some deamons to exorcize.
Also, I'm suddenly very hungry. hmmmmmmm!