Messages

This team is closer to a respectable place in the conference standings than the W-L record indicates. Most importantly, VU's best players -- guys who have had some outstanding games -- have yet to reach their ceiling, in some cases not even close. This is especially the case with players who have 2 or more seasons of eligibility. I don't know if Stafford and Darius have huge upsides, but their shooting percentages should improve next year.

A good number of the losses against middle-of-the-conference teams have been very close. Some of the big losses have included a half of very good basketball. Even at 6-16, the scoring margin deficit is only 72.7 to 68.1. Granted, that includes a blowout win over Trinity Christian (+39), but it also includes bigger losses to Illinois (-23), Drake (-18), Virginia Tech (-21), Samford (-18), and Bradley (-25).

The Trinity Christian non D-1 game doesn't count. Valparaiso currently ranks #297 in scoring margin at -6.6 (66.6-73.2).

wh - regarding talent, I disagree completely based on the rebounding numbers. Also in reality, Valpo has not been in almost every game, and this team has lost several in double figures.

True. Valpo has 9 conference defeats by a total of 88 points, a difference of 9.8 points or only 2 points from a double-digit average in all losses.

Teams with strong bigs expose the weakness of our softer inside game, as we've seen in the past two games, losing on rebounds 96-66 and points in the paint 74-38! Also, I like Sepp but his reluctance to shoot or threaten to score when he gets the ball is frustrating. He could be a better scorer than he shows or at least draw the defense to him more. His field goal percent for the year is a fine 56.5% (35-62). He's even shooting 50% (3-6) from the 3-point line as a starter in conference play. However, most times when he receives a pass he doesn't fake a shot or even look up towards the basket and the defense sags back. He is minimizing his effect as a scorer the way Darius used to do and helping the opponents' defense. In conference play he is averaging just over 3 shots per game despite playing starter minutes, and he has taken only 6 3-point shots in 10 games, again while making half of them, a very respectable percent. I am hoping with experience he will develop more aggressiveness and become a Kevin Van Wijk type of player.

Valpo  61
Drake 82

I thought that last home game, as well, but it only ended up as 1,400.  The chairback side must have been pretty sparse.  I would guess 2,000 again today, but it will probably be around 1,500

1591

It is clear which team's players have had more time to spend in the weight room, one of the disadvantages for so many freshmen. The contrast in appearance standing side by side on the court is apparent, as are the contrasting stats in rebounding (48-33)) and points in the paint (44-22) favoring Missouri State.

MS    72

VU    68

Watching the game, I wondered if we might see Coach Powell receive his first technical foul. He seemed upset with the officials a few times, especially when Stafford was injured by an SIU player running into him. The Rev's occasional glare at officials is pretty intimidating, but I am curious what it would take to make him mad enough or to think it was tactical as a motivational move to get a technical.

Some general updates with good news and reasons for optimism as we move under the 40 days until March 1 mark. Although it is still too early to come to a conclusion about enrollment for fall semester and anything can happen, the current numbers are very encouraging across the board. Despite the fact that the process of application has been delayed for most individuals since changes at the national level made FAFSA availability happen almost three months later this year (which I believe slowed football recruitment a bit), Valpo's overall numbers appear to be ahead of those at this time the past few years.

Additionally, Indiana instituted a new law this year requiring the state's seniors to file FAFSA papers unless waived by parents. The state is aiming for a 25% uptick this year over last year. This will likely result in an increase of Indiana students eligible for the college pool, the population from which VU draws many applicants. Finally, I am told the enrollment for the nursing program is extraordinarily healthy, partially because of the good publicity from the recent announcement of Valparaiso University and the University of Chicago Medicine launching a new training program together. 

While I am hopeful that you are correct, I will again state that there are three measures that are far more meaningful than any other measures: on-campus visits, acceptances, and deposits. If those measures are up (year-over-year or versus goal), then things look promising. If it is something like applications, that is far less indicative.

Yes, you say this every time, and on each occasion I assure you I would not post anything without precise knowledge of all the measures you cite.

Valpo  62
S. Ill.  76

Some general updates with good news and reasons for optimism as we move under the 40 days until March 1 mark. Although it is still too early to come to a conclusion about enrollment for fall semester and anything can happen, the current numbers are very encouraging across the board. Despite the fact that the process of application has been delayed for most individuals since changes at the national level made FAFSA availability happen almost three months later this year (which I believe slowed football recruitment a bit), Valpo's overall numbers appear to be ahead of those at this time the past few years.

Additionally, Indiana instituted a new law this year requiring the state's seniors to file FAFSA papers unless waived by parents. The state is aiming for a 25% uptick this year over last year. This will likely result in an increase of Indiana students eligible for the college pool, the population from which VU draws many applicants. Finally, I am told the enrollment for the nursing program is extraordinarily healthy, partially because of the good publicity from the recent announcement of Valparaiso University and the University of Chicago Medicine launching a new training program together. 

The Sunday NWI Times had a brief AP article five sentences long topped by a file photo of Schwieger and a headline of "Valparaiso Defeats UIC" six pages deep into its sports section. This may seem minimal, but usually there isn't even a story, and it is a start to resumption of recognition by local media. Winning can do that. 

There is no doubt that the atmosphere and energy of the team, led by Coach Powell and exhibited here in the locker room, has changed dramatically. This level of celebrating might be infrequent now, and it will take time plus a steady diet of winning to fully transfer that atmosphere to the stands or elevate attendance above last night's 1400; however, if anyone can do it, Powell is the guy.


[tweet]1748877105549471834[/tweet]

Valpo is near the bottom of Div-I in scoring efficiency at #335 (85.6 pts. per 100 possessions). I think they can win this game and I am hopeful; however, until they prove the offense has improved, I am reluctant to pick them for a win: UIC 71, VU 67

I don't understand why Latinos or Latinas want to be referred to as Latinx, but if that's their preference, fine, it doesn't cost me anything to change a letter. Are we to the point now that people are too sensitive about what they're called AND people are too sensitive about having to call people something else?

I have been in academic forums and meetings where discussion occurred about use of "Latinx" in university messages. I have objected because those group members strongly reject the term themselves. It is not "their preference." ABC News reported as recently as 2023: "Only 23% of U.S. adults who self-identify as Hispanic or Latino had heard of the term Latinx, according to a 2020 Pew Research Center poll. Just 3% use it to identify themselves, the poll found." However, the academics and university administrators in meetings with me, believing they knew better what was good for the group in question, insisted upon "Latinx."

Further from ABC News: "In December 2021, the League of United Latin American Citizens, the oldest Hispanic and Latino civil rights organization in the U.S., and Congressman Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., stated they would no longer use the term 'Latinx' because it was offensive to some and failed to prove it had a wide acceptance."

"'When Latino politicos use the term it is largely to appease white rich progressives who think that is the term we use,' Gallego tweeted." 

Difference in the game was Evansville having a few more FTs. Valpo had more FGs than Evansville.

That is misleading. Valpo had only 1 more field goal while making 10 more attempts, all outside 3-point misses where Valpo was 11-27 (41%) and Evansville was 10-16 (63%). Both teams had 17 2-point field goals. Therefore, the  Evansville edge in free throws largely came from VU fouls on drives inside that likely would have been field goals, which explains not only the fewer field goals recorded for Evansville but also their higher number of free throws. The difference in the game was the percentage performance from the 3-point line: 10-16 gives an efficiency of an amazing 30 points in 16 attempts (94% in 2-point terms) while 11-27 is an efficiency of 33 points in 27 attempts (61% in 2-point terms), decent but no match.

The assumption that the fouled shots would have created more FGs is misleading. So my analysis and your analysis fall into a to each his own way of looking at things. However, in pure numbers, it was the free throw difference which led to the difference in the score.

I said "likely" would have created more field goals, which is undeniable and not misleading at all, especially when the total disparity in field goals was only 1. "Pure numbers" is the misleading part, since how those numbers were attained is the most important "difference" in the flow of the game and its outcome. Similarly, if a team were to win a game by 5 points and had 6 more free throw makes, but those were in the final 30 seconds on intentional fouls by the trailing team trying to catch up, the "pure numbers" would suggest free throws were the difference, but the flow of the game that led to the outcome would be completely different.

Difference in the game was Evansville having a few more FTs. Valpo had more FGs than Evansville.

That is misleading. Valpo had only 1 more field goal while making 10 more attempts, all outside 3-point misses where Valpo was 11-27 (41%) and Evansville was 10-16 (63%). Both teams had 17 2-point field goals. Therefore, the  Evansville edge in free throws largely came from VU fouls on drives inside that likely would have been field goals, which explains not only the fewer field goals recorded for Evansville but also their higher number of free throws. The difference in the game was the percentage performance from the 3-point line: 10-16 gives an efficiency of an amazing 30 points in 16 attempts (94% in 2-point terms) while 11-27 is an efficiency of 33 points in 27 attempts (61% in 2-point terms), decent but no match.

Stats reveal the story in the past three games and the difference in scores can be attributed to a schizophrenic 3-point percent by Valpo's opponents. In the two losses, Southern Illinois (8-15) and Evansville (10-16) surprisingly shot north of 50% from the outside. Valpo (11-27, a decent 40.7%) actually made more 3-pointers than Evansville, but Evansville's percent was an incredible 62.5%! The VU victory in between happened due to Illinois State shooting an awful 1-18 from the 3-point line, a miserable 5.6%, while Valpo neared their average with a 4-12 (33%). For the season, opponents are shooting a reasonable 33.8%. In fact, although VU is shooting a lower level at the 3-point line (31.5%), the overall number of made 3-pointers is remarkably even, 125 for opponents and 123 for Valpo.   

Valpo 68
Evan  74

Today is Coach Powell's birthday, but I think he got his biggest gift a little early last night as this moment of honest emotion displays.


[tweet]1746698897739719122[/tweet]

Not too often that 59 points will win a game, but fortunately that was good enough today, and it earned a long awaited celebration!
[tweet]1746677642961580113[/tweet]

[2]

The game is at 2pm CT.

I'm sure that everyone has their personal opinion on my state's undocumented worker/illegal immigrant (whichever word you choose to use) busing to other states, but if the Federal government is responsible for protecting our borders, and Texas bears the brunt of the costs in the government failing to do so, just because we are on the border, I've always felt it very fair that all other states need to support such folks equally.  Is it inhumane to bus folks to random spots that they might not want to go?  Yes.  Should all 50 states share the costs and crisis equally, versus just the border states?  Absolutely.

I am not sure how this specifically relates to enrollment numbers, but I agree with most of your commentary. However, I would disagree with the conclusion that "all 50 states should share the costs equally," which according to a report this week on CNN has reached into billions of dollars. The last I looked, 11 states and the District of Columbia have formally declared themselves to have "sanctuary status": California, Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Vermont. Hold them to their word.

Valpo 65
Ill St. 73

Valpo is on track for the worst season since the last-place teams of Homer's early years: 89-90 (4-24, 1-11), 90-91 (5-22, 2-14), 91-92 (5-22, 2-14). Nevertheless, many seem willing to weather the storm with a trust that better days are ahead and history will repeat itself with success for Roger the way Homer found it. Like others, I'm also remaining positive toward Roger and his players even as the team drops into the 300s of the NET rankings. I am giving them a pass this year.

However, my good will does not extend to those who allowed the program to deteriorate and did not recognize the need to improve on and off the court when VU entered the MVC, as some members on here warned repeatedly, so that Valpo basketball became a shell of what it was. This season is a reminder that the program's national reputation, which had been built steadily for a couple of decades, was wasted. It is regrettable that the status has returned to those seasons more than 30 years ago. VU should never have reached this low point.