The Valparaiso Beacons Fan Zone Forum

Following is the 7-game schedule for DEC:

DEC 3 at Eastern Kentucky
DEC 6 New Mexico
DEC 10 Trinity International
DEC 13 Ball State
DEC 20 at IPFW
DEC 21 Goshen
DEC 29 at James Madison

What will our DEC record be?

We lose to Eastern Kentucky on the road but beat New Mexico at home. I do want to say 7-0 but going undefeated in a month is incredibly difficult. Although if we win our first 2 games nobody else scares me too much.

6-1.

Not 7-0 because I'm predicting one bad game in that stretch.  We'll beat the Non-D1 teams. 
Who we will lose to is irrelevant--we're so hot right now that only one team on our schedule CAN beat us--US.

Quote from: BrettD07 on November 30, 2014, 01:37:45 PMonly one team on our schedule CAN beat us--US

i didn't know the University of Suffolk was on our schedule! uh oh.

(welcome to the board : )

Welcome, BrettDO7!

Thanks guys.  Yeah, I've actually been around a while but today's my first login of the season.

It seems the "Forgot password" function is broken (it doesn't actually send an e-mail, though it "says" it does), so I had to make a new account.

Another overly enthusiastic prediction by me, at 7-0.  No one scares me on the road, and I think that being at home will get us a victory over the Lobos.  Could we truly end up 14-1 after the first 2 months? :o

I'm gonna low ball it at 5-2.  I think we will take one of two from EKU and NM and then we will have a gaff somewhere either with Ball St, IPFW, or JMU.  If we were to continue to play like this weekend shows we can, then 7-0 is a very real possibility...I'd rather be pleasantly surprised when it happens than disappointed if it doesn't. 

6-1, I think we will loose to the Lobos at home.

6-1...lose at E. Kentucky and bounce back with a close win at home over the Lobos

Loss to the Lobos seems the obvious prediction and beating the others.     

What am I missing?    The ARC is a factor......but......

Quote from: crusadermoe on November 30, 2014, 03:44:12 PM
Loss to the Lobos seems the obvious prediction and beating the others.     

What am I missing?    The ARC is a factor......but......

Remember that the Lobos aren't nearly as good this year and will be short-handed (or short-footed?) at the ARC.  Valpo will be favored in every game in December, but I voted 6-1 because it's still likely they might slip up one time with such a young team.

The other question is how many more wins will it take before Valpo cracks the top 25?  Also, is it too early to start wondering if they'll reach/exceed the school record for wins?

Valpo won't be ranked this year, we don't face enough quality teams. Our schedule is weak...

Quote from: EddieCabot on November 30, 2014, 04:50:32 PM

Quote from: crusadermoe on November 30, 2014, 03:44:12 PM
Loss to the Lobos seems the obvious prediction and beating the others.     

What am I missing?    The ARC is a factor......but......

Remember that the Lobos aren't nearly as good this year and will be short-handed (or short-footed?) at the ARC.  Valpo will be favored in every game in December, but I voted 6-1 because it's still likely they might slip up one time with such a young team.

The other question is how many more wins will it take before Valpo cracks the top 25? Also, is it too early to start wondering if they'll reach/exceed the school record for wins?

IMO we won't know if this is going to be a "special" season until the 1st half of conference play is complete.  GB and CSU were picked ahead of us and Detroit will be very competitive, as well.  There's no question that we should be better than anyone originally thought, but so might GB or CSU or Detroit.  Will some of our key new guys like T. Walker and Skara hit the proverbial "freshman wall" at some point?  What if one of our key players suffers a major injury?  How will the new players adapt to the more physical playing style of the HL? 

So many questions, so few answers... ;)

Valpo is up to #83 in the KenPom rankings today.

Regarding the top 25, I expect the Crusaders to get some votes this week (from 2 or 3 good voters paying attention to margin of victory), and 26 or 27 overall next week if we beat EKY and NM.  We would be 9-1 with some good wins.  That's got to be close.

If we do get ranked we need to beat EKY and NM and both by decent margins of victory. Our road loss to a mediocre Missouri team hurts. If we do finish December with only 1 in the loss column we could be ranked depending on how the traditional powerhouses are looking.

It would be nice to see a number next to Valpo but it really doesn't matter. Win the HL and you're in no matter what. It was a fantastic first month and it seems that everyone has made major strides this season and the newcomers are performing at a high level. The only disappointment so far has been Jubril, he has been replaced by Darien. Great first month, hopefully we can have another outstanding week and really make some heads turn throughout the country.

I'll say 3 December losses.  How can anyone pick us to beat New Mexico? It seems like every time we play a "name" program we get a case of the bright light jitters and wind up scoring something like 45 points.

Paul

Quote from: 78crusader on November 30, 2014, 05:59:44 PM
I'll say 3 December losses.  How can anyone pick us to beat New Mexico? It seems like every time we play a "name" program we get a case of the bright light jitters and wind up scoring something like 45 points.

Paul

You might be right, but, you also thought we would have a difficult time beating Drake!  ;)

Cannot argue with vu72! :)

Quote from: vu72 on November 30, 2014, 06:16:21 PM

Quote from: 78crusader on November 30, 2014, 05:59:44 PM
I'll say 3 December losses.  How can anyone pick us to beat New Mexico? It seems like every time we play a "name" program we get a case of the bright light jitters and wind up scoring something like 45 points.

Paul

You might be right, but, you also thought we would have a difficult time beating Drake!  ;)

Yes, what vu72 said :).  This isn't Alford's UNM anymore.  They recently lost to USC at home by 12, which is a team that lost at home to Portland State, Akron, and Penn State.  We have a very good chance of beating them at home, regardless of our traditional 'freezing up' against name programs.  With a top player also out for UNM, it only makes it more likely.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/167/new-mexico-lobos (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/167/new-mexico-lobos)

I'll be at the New Mexico game so I can't help but predict we'll go undefeated

This team has learned to play defense and roles on offence. As long Mr. Peters leads this team can go far.  6-1  ;D

Quote from: WiscoCrusader on November 30, 2014, 05:47:22 PMValpo is up to #83 in the KenPom rankings today. Regarding the top 25, I expect the Crusaders to get some votes this week (from 2 or 3 good voters paying attention to margin of victory), and 26 or 27 overall next week if we beat EKY and NM.  We would be 9-1 with some good wins.  That's got to be close.

A big welcome to WiscoCrusader also. Have you been lurking like myself and BrentD07 did before posting for the first time?

Quote from: VUfan on November 30, 2014, 08:46:49 PMThis team has learned to play defense and roles on offence. As long Mr. Peters leads this team can go far.  6-1  ;D

If you watched the highlights of the Valpo/Murray game at the end of the first half you see Alec Peters with his arm on Keith Carter's shoulder talking to him and encouraging him as they walk off the court. That is the kind of leadership we will be getting from Alec both on and off the basketball court for another 2 plus years.

I picked 6-1.  Would love to see 7-0, but this team is too young and we have not been a team in the past that could win all of the games we "should" win.  Would love to be wrong this year! 

I went 6-1... but I'm glad I don't have to say which one... gotta tell you... I hate playing IPFW...but with the game in their campus-gym, I like it more.... just something about that FW Coliseum that just irks me.  (SUU)

Reminder - You have until tomorrow (Wed.) at 11a CT to cast your vote.

I'm sticking to a 1 loss month again. New Mexico is good.

Final call for any last minute voters.  The poll automatically locks at 11a.

A byproduct of winning 8 of nine is that we are now favored to win most of our future games:

http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8361&s=267615 (http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8361&s=267615)

http://realtimerpi.com/ncaab/281_Men.html?Valparaiso (http://realtimerpi.com/ncaab/281_Men.html?Valparaiso)

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/valparaiso-crusaders/projections (http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/valparaiso-crusaders/projections)

Quote from: covufan on December 04, 2014, 11:22:30 AM
A byproduct of winning 8 of nine is that we are now favored to win most of our future games:

http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8361&s=267615 (http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8361&s=267615)

http://realtimerpi.com/ncaab/281_Men.html?Valparaiso (http://realtimerpi.com/ncaab/281_Men.html?Valparaiso)

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/valparaiso-crusaders/projections (http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/valparaiso-crusaders/projections)

Wow, Massey has us going 28-3 and RealTime and TeamRankings has us going 29-1. KenPom has us losing 3 more games, which seems most realistic of these projections.

Here's KenPom's (I'd link to it, but it's subscription based.)
(https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7479/15947151505_2192a445c3_o.png)

The little numbers between the score prediction and the % of victory is how many possessions are projected for the match up.

Quote from: Kyle321n on December 04, 2014, 01:23:29 PMKenPom has us losing 3 more games, which seems most realistic of these projections.

From your screen cap, KenPom is predicting 11-5 in league and 24-7 overall.  RPI Forecast is predicting only 6 total losses (12-4 league record), so it's pretty similar. 

I don't know much about how these all work, but I assume that they're still moving around a bit this early in the season.

Quote from: EddieCabot on December 04, 2014, 02:41:07 PM

Quote from: Kyle321n on December 04, 2014, 01:23:29 PMKenPom has us losing 3 more games, which seems most realistic of these projections.

From your screen cap, KenPom is predicting 11-5 in league and 24-7 overall.  RPI Forecast is predicting only 6 total losses (12-4 league record), so it's pretty similar. 

I don't know much about how these all work, but I assume that they're still moving around a bit this early in the season.

This is from the W-L they have. Their overall uses the chance to win and adds it all up to figure out all that jazz. KenPom has us winning 493% of the 600% of our OOC games and 1110% of the 1600% of our conference games which is why he has us at 24-7 (11-5).