I guess we'd better start a thread...
Nolan line is +10.5
Here's the recap of the last time we played 'em
http://valpoathletics.com/mbasketball/news/2015-16/15189/crusaders-ride-familiar-formula-to-win-over-cleveland-state/#.VsJ2H8v2aM8 (http://valpoathletics.com/mbasketball/news/2015-16/15189/crusaders-ride-familiar-formula-to-win-over-cleveland-state/#.VsJ2H8v2aM8)
Since that game: They lost to UIC 72-70; Lost at Home to Detroit 71-63; lost at home to Oakland 67-57 and Beat Youngstown State at Beeghly 64-59 on Saturday. Their RPI is 256
Very excited for this game at the Q in Cleveland. Should be an exciting experience for our players, regardless of Saturday's result. Bringing family, friends, and co-workers so it will be a fun time for us. Expecting that we will just crush the Vikings and get all of our frustrations out before we get the Michigan teams at home this weekend.
If anyone is going and needs any suggestions for restaurants/things to do right around the Q, I've got answers for you!
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Valpo wins 77-61
Valpo 72
CSU 61
Vegas has us at 15 pt favorites, I hope we win by 18+ after that disheartening loss.
VU-76
CSU-57
We need to not let CSU dictate the tempo, and play like every minute counts.
Valpo 72
CSU 51
I'm yawning. But I hope the team is not.
Must be exciting to play in front of thousands of clean empty seats. Those seats really generate excitement.
I didn't catch the pre-game, so was there any comment on Hammink starting in place of Skara?
Seriously. 5 home games in an NBA arena in front of 20,000 fans dressed as empty seats. Having state school money must be nice.
Quote from: vu84v2 on February 16, 2016, 06:07:22 PM
Must be exciting to play in front of thousands of clean empty seats. Those seats really generate excitement.
Good practice for the conference tournament
Quote from: VU75 on February 16, 2016, 06:15:20 PM
I didn't catch the pre-game, so was there any comment on Hammink starting in place of Skara?
Skara has been terrible. That's why Hammink is starting.
I only watched the first half but checked the stats when I got back after the game ended. I was relieved to see Skara made a few shots. I was also encouraged to see Tevo hitting a few outside shots and attacking the hoop (even though he got blocked on a few).
Stings that this game still falls in the "CSU's bad enough that winning on the road _still_ hurts our RPI"....
But nice to see Tevonn, Skara, and Alec all scoring.
Quote from: vu84v2 on February 16, 2016, 06:07:22 PM
Must be exciting to play in front of thousands of clean empty seats. Those seats really generate excitement.
Attendance listed at 1,545. Todd's estimate of 2,000 wasn't _too_ far off. I wonder how accurate his estimate of 500-600 Valpo fans was. I only saw a handful of gold shirts on ESPN3.
Why do they play these games at the Q?
I'm watching the 2nd half...they were really trying to get Vashil going on offense. He is close to breaking out on that end of the court. I think he goes double digits on Friday.
Quote from: vu84v2 on February 16, 2016, 06:07:22 PM
Must be exciting to play in front of thousands of clean empty seats. Those seats really generate excitement.
Ironically enough, the seats in the Valpo section were not clean at all. The Q hosted one of those Monster Jam shows and dust from the trucks remained in the stands on the backs, sides, under side of the seats. Our group joked about how pristine things would be if it were any other event than Cleveland State basketball.
Quote from: agibson on February 16, 2016, 09:45:32 PM
Attendance listed at 1,545. Todd's estimate of 2,000 wasn't _too_ far off. I wonder how accurate his estimate of 500-600 Valpo fans was. I only saw a handful of gold shirts on ESPN3.
Why do they play these games at the Q?
Attendance was awful, but considering the season Cleveland State has endured after the flight of Forbes, Lewis, and Grady, it seemed appropriate. I would say that there was somewhere around 100-125 Valpo fans at the game. The section behind the Valpo bench was 80-85% Valpo fans. The Cleveland State game is always a good draw for Valpo supporters (Not as good as UIC or Milwaukee, but the clear 3rd for a HL road game) and the game was a little less attended than usual due to the Tuesday night and perhaps the lack of an Alumni social/pre-game event.
Cleveland State plays these games at the Q for several reasons:
1. It's a recruiting edge. "Hey, you can come to Cleveland State, be immersed within this rejuvenated city, and play where King James plays."
2. Cleveland State is trying to build a casual fan base. The Q is right near many popular restaurants, clubs, a casino, among other popular establishments. Cleveland State can easily use the coat-tails of the Cavs to get people to comeback to their CSU games and people can hang out downtown before and afterwards. Also, aside from Valpo, Cleveland State only played in-state schools at the Q that would have a larger fan base in the Cleveland area and attendance wasn't awful like tonight (3671, 3261, and 2633) for the first three games and they still have Wright State to go.
3. The Wolstein Center is an atrocious relic of an arena. I do wander over to a CSU game from time to time and there are just numerous unappealing things regarding the Wolstein Center. No scoreboard over the court, the video boards don't work, the shot clocks are at bad angles to the fans and bench, the green curtain with a plastic mural of excited Cleveland State fans, etc. Some of the season ticket holders that I have talked to really like the comforts of the Wolstein Center because they have had some great experiences there, like the more casual environment, among other things... but it just is not a great place for a basketball game and really isn't in a super place for walking to/from some of Cleveland's . It is a 2nd tier concert venue and a good multi-purpose arena for indoor soccer at best.
More info here: http://www.cleveland.com/sports/csu/index.ssf/2015/08/cleveland_state_basketball_to.html (http://www.cleveland.com/sports/csu/index.ssf/2015/08/cleveland_state_basketball_to.html)
Quote from: HC on February 16, 2016, 09:55:03 PM
I'm watching the 2nd half...they were really trying to get Vashil going on offense. He is close to breaking out on that end of the court. I think he goes double digits on Friday.
In my mind, the first half was a disaster on offense. We did not play like we were trying to fix our mistakes from Saturday. We took too many low percentage shots, threes, and just looked disjointed on offense. After Saturday's game, where our inside offensive game lost all confidence and needed a boost and re-tuning, I was hoping that we could really rebuild our inside game instead of settling for iffy jump shots or a late-in-the-shot-clock three point attempt. And we just did not do that today to start.
The second half redeemed this game. More inside looks and feeds to Vashil. Much better ball movement and getting that open jumper as intended (50% from three!). However, much of this was cut short to sub out for the bench and take the foot off the gas as we do in these blow outs... so I do hope that Vashil and Valpo inside game can break out on Friday. But this game was just a rather boring game overall. I follow Valpo closely and go to the game any chance I get, but this was quite the snoozer. Must be our great defense!!!
Side Note: Any word on what is up with EVN and why he didn't play today? Apologies if I missed it, but I felt that this could have been a confidence boosting game for him as well to run the point and get some bad juju out.
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Now that this game is done, moving forward, things are simple:
Beat Oakland. You clinch part of the HL Title, a double bye in Detroit (If the apocalypse happened and Valpo/Oak/WSU all tied at 13-5 and 2-2 against the other 2 teams, it would come down to RPI), and you can breathe easy over the last three games and can work towards March goals/hopes/dreams, and that is just on Friday night. And if you slip over pesky Detroit or in Wisconsin for a game, it's no big deal, as just winning just one of those final 3 games gives you your fourth regular season title in five years.
However, if we lose on Friday, there is no room for error over the last three games and another slip up means you may have to play Wright State AND Oakland if we want to dance... just devastating.
Valpo's defense was insane. A little lapse at the end and a couple turnovers pushed the CSU score to 43... It really could have been 38.
In the three-way tie scenario, the tiebreaker is record against team(s) in 4th, then 5th, etc, right? All the way down? And only finally RPI.
Always feels feel like, "Who managed to handle the tough opponents, and slipped against a bottom feeder?".
Unfortunately, that might go to Oakland. - I'm not sure we have any left on the schedule to hypothetically lose to. And Oakland lost to everybody at home (eg YSU).
Quote from: HailVU2014 on February 16, 2016, 11:19:27 PM
Now that this game is done, moving forward, things are simple: Beat Oakland. You clinch part of the HL Title, a double bye in Detroit (If the apocalypse happened and Valpo/Oak/WSU all tied at 13-5 and 2-2 against the other 2 teams, it would come down to RPI), and you can breathe easy over the last three games and can work towards March goals/hopes/dreams, and that is just on Friday night. And if you slip over pesky Detroit or in Wisconsin for a game, it's no big deal, as just winning just one of those final 3 games gives you your fourth regular season title in five years.
However, if we lose on Friday, there is no room for error over the last three games and another slip up means you may have to play Wright State AND Oakland if we want to dance... just devastating.
You're tie breaker in a 3 way tie is a little more complicated than just going to RPI after we're tied at 2-2. Let's say we win vs. Oakland and we end up in a 3 way tie with Oakland and WSU at 13-5. The next tie breaker is record against next best team in the league, which at that point would be Green Bay at 12-6. Oakland went 2-0 vs. Green Bay while WSU and Valpo went 1-1 so Oakland is the regular season champion. Since Valpo and WSU are still tied I'm not sure if it'd go to H2H or the next best team, which is Milwaukee. Either way WSU went 2-0 vs. Milwaukee and Valpo and Valpo went 1-1 vs. Milwaukee. So either way we're still the 3 seed. We need to win 2 games to guarantee a double bye right now.
http://horizonleague.blogspot.com/2016/02/hlmbb-1-seed-possibilities-valpo.html (http://horizonleague.blogspot.com/2016/02/hlmbb-1-seed-possibilities-valpo.html)
Quote from: Kyle321n on February 17, 2016, 09:26:40 AM
Quote from: HailVU2014 on February 16, 2016, 11:19:27 PM
Now that this game is done, moving forward, things are simple: Beat Oakland. You clinch part of the HL Title, a double bye in Detroit (If the apocalypse happened and Valpo/Oak/WSU all tied at 13-5 and 2-2 against the other 2 teams, it would come down to RPI), and you can breathe easy over the last three games and can work towards March goals/hopes/dreams, and that is just on Friday night. And if you slip over pesky Detroit or in Wisconsin for a game, it's no big deal, as just winning just one of those final 3 games gives you your fourth regular season title in five years.
However, if we lose on Friday, there is no room for error over the last three games and another slip up means you may have to play Wright State AND Oakland if we want to dance... just devastating.
You're tie breaker in a 3 way tie is a little more complicated than just going to RPI after we're tied at 2-2. Let's say we win vs. Oakland and we end up in a 3 way tie with Oakland and WSU at 13-5. The next tie breaker is record against next best team in the league, which at that point would be Green Bay at 12-6. Oakland went 2-0 vs. Green Bay while WSU and Valpo went 1-1 so Oakland is the regular season champion. Since Valpo and WSU are still tied I'm not sure if it'd go to H2H or the next best team, which is Milwaukee. Either way WSU went 2-0 vs. Milwaukee and Valpo and Valpo went 1-1 vs. Milwaukee. So either way we're still the 3 seed. We need to win 2 games to guarantee a double bye right now.
Appreciate the clarification. So some of the argument still stands: Oakland + 1 is the better option than must-wins over Det/UWM/UWGB.
I'll look at it this way: Our magic numbers (our wins, plus other teams' losses) for clinching things...
To clinch a double bye, we must "eliminate" two of the three teams.
To clinch the league outright, we must "eliminate" them all.
These
DO NOT factor in tiebreaks...those are still messy...as we've learned. These simply factor in us guaranteeing a better record than the other teams.
Team | Magic Number |
Oakland | 3 |
Wright State | 2 |
Green Bay | 1 |
Quote from: Kyle321n on February 17, 2016, 09:26:40 AMSince Valpo and WSU are still tied I'm not sure if it'd go to H2H or the next best team, which is Milwaukee.
Once a multi-way tie is reduced to a two-way tie it goes back to head-to-head. So, Valpo had better avoid it. But, I'm not sure I want to spend any more time thinking about scenarios where we pick up another two or three losses. I'm happy to leave that to stlvu!
The tiebreaker procedures are on page two of the Horizon League basketball weekly release
e.g.
http://hln.s3.amazonaws.com/sports/releases/2/release.pdf?1455314469 (http://hln.s3.amazonaws.com/sports/releases/2/release.pdf?1455314469)
I don't know if that's the official version, or not. It's maybe not worded (or spell-checked) as crisply as it might be, but hopefully the intent is clear.
Yeah, the only tiebreaker we win for 1st place is if we beat Oakland on Friday. Common Opponents is a danger zone for us ;)
Quote from: StlVUFan on February 17, 2016, 10:47:42 AM
http://horizonleague.blogspot.com/2016/02/hlmbb-1-seed-possibilities-valpo.html (http://horizonleague.blogspot.com/2016/02/hlmbb-1-seed-possibilities-valpo.html)
Impressive! And, despite what I said about leaving the Valpo multi-loss scenarios to you, I can't resist poking at a puzzle.
Isn't there at least one scenario where Wright State gets the #1 seed out of a three-way 13-5 tie?
I'm imagining Milwaukee finishing alone in 4th with an 11-7 record, and then WSU being the only team of the three (Valpo, Oakland, WSU) to sweep Milwaukee.
Milwaukee has to win out, Green Bay has to lose a couple, and Detroit has to lose one. But, maybe that can all happen without messing up the there-way 13-5 tie?
I have to check later to see if I covered it, but off the top of my head, Valpo would have to beat Oakland on Friday for that to be possible.
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Also I think Milwaukee would have to be alone in 4th. Otherwise Oakland would still have it because of their sweep of GB. I can't check this right now, so there's a chance I'm wrong on this part.
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Quote from: StlVUFan on February 17, 2016, 12:49:46 PMI have to check later to see if I covered it, but off the top of my head, Valpo would have to beat Oakland on Friday for that to be possible.
That's right. It's the 13-5 scenario where every team has swept one other. Valpo sweeps Oakland, Oakland sweeps Wright State, Wright State sweeps Valpo. They're all 2-2 in the three-way tie for first.
The additional losses, to bring it to 5, would be: WSU losses to UIC, Detroit, GB; Valpo losses to Detroit, Milwaukee, GB; Oakland losses to YSU, NKY, Milwaukee.
And, if Milwaukee ended up alone in 4th (11-7, without spoiling any of the above; with Detroit picking up at least one more loss and GB two), then Wright State gets the #1 seed. (And Valpo the #3, presumably, almost certainly losing on the tie-breaker with Oakland).
I think it's possible, but I've not checked everything.
And yeah, I've not checked other related cases (is there more than this one?). But, I think it might work if Milwaukee's alone in 4th.
I think it is too, as long a Milwaukee is all alone in 4th.
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Quote from: StlVUFan on February 17, 2016, 01:07:49 PM
I think it is too, as long a Milwaukee is all alone in 4th.
If Milwaukee is alone in 4th and we're 2-2 vs WSU and Oakland that's alright for us as WSU is 2-0 vs Milwaukee. That'd land us in the 2 seed as we'd have the tie break against Oakland (1-1 vs Milwaukee, us 1-1 vs. Milwaukee) Because we'd have to go 0-3 against Green Bay, Detroit and Milwaukee and they are the only ones who can be legitamately in 4th we'd be in second only in the Milwaukee situation. If it's Detroit, then it goes to Oakland (would be 2-0 in the scenario) leaving us in the 3 seed and I already laid out Green Bay above. It's not possible to have a 3 way tie at the top and have YSU in 4th place, they would need to lose to WSU and that would give them 10 losses eliminating them from 4th.
Quote from: Kyle321n on February 17, 2016, 01:29:51 PMIf Milwaukee is alone in 4th and we're 2-2 vs WSU and Oakland that's alright for us as WSU is 2-0 vs Milwaukee. That'd land us in the 2 seed as we'd have the tie break against Oakland (1-1 vs Milwaukee, us 1-1 vs. Milwaukee)
How does that give us the tie-breaker over Oakland?
Quote from: agibson on February 17, 2016, 01:41:52 PM
Quote from: Kyle321n on February 17, 2016, 01:29:51 PMIf Milwaukee is alone in 4th and we're 2-2 vs WSU and Oakland that's alright for us as WSU is 2-0 vs Milwaukee. That'd land us in the 2 seed as we'd have the tie break against Oakland (1-1 vs Milwaukee, us 1-1 vs. Milwaukee)
How does that give us the tie-breaker over Oakland?
We'd be 2-0 vs Oakland
Quote from: Kyle321n on February 17, 2016, 01:45:44 PM
Quote from: agibson on February 17, 2016, 01:41:52 PM
Quote from: Kyle321n on February 17, 2016, 01:29:51 PMIf Milwaukee is alone in 4th and we're 2-2 vs WSU and Oakland that's alright for us as WSU is 2-0 vs Milwaukee. That'd land us in the 2 seed as we'd have the tie break against Oakland (1-1 vs Milwaukee, us 1-1 vs. Milwaukee)
How does that give us the tie-breaker over Oakland?
We'd be 2-0 vs Oakland
Ah, right, of course. It may be a hair too early/complicated to pursue this with any confidence! At least without a lot of time and care invested. But, hey, it's part of the end-of-season fun.
Quote from: agibson on February 17, 2016, 12:08:27 PMIsn't there at least one scenario where Wright State gets the #1 seed out of a three-way 13-5 tie?
I see what you're saying now. What I wrote insisted that Wright State had to have a better record than Oakland. I believe I did miss the case you mentioned.