Topics

[Not going anywhere]

Nobody really wants to talk about it, but as Paul Oren has pointed out, someone has left the program every year since 2003.  Just when people are saying "peace" and "security!" ... ye know not the day nor the hour.

Here's a totally random assessment from someone on the internet who lives like a thousand miles away, so it must be legit.

Not going anywhere ("out", in NFL injury terms)
Keith Carter
E Victor Nickerson
Darien Walker
Shane Hammink

All these people have either just sat out a year and/or have just a year of eligibility remaining.  So...in the words of Chris Rock, "never say never?  I'M saying NEVER."

Could, but doubt it ("doubtful" on the NFL gamblers' injury report)
Alec Peters -- if Bryce leaves, and he and his girlfriend break up, and possibly completely forgets who he is (be on watch for:  tattoos)
Jubril Adekoya -- lost his starting job and didn't pout, still saw a lot of PT, so you would hope not...
David Skara -- sure, this European forward won't go anywhere.  plenty of promise, outside shooting touch, good fundamentals...what?  you were talking about Sam Haänpaä?  Oh.
Tevonn Walker -- maybe a big school comes calling.  Izzo, or someone with fewer scruples, needs guys like this.
Lexus Williams -- the band still went on tour without him.  Not saying he would, but if he could go somewhere else and play immediately because of the injury redshirt?  I'm not sure if the recent NCAA loophole closure applies to this type of case.  I hope it does.
Chandler Levingston Simon -- He had a scholarship somewhere else; he may want one along with more PT.

You never know ("questionable")
Max Joseph
Nick Davidson

Obviously the writing is on the wall here for them; PT will be even scarcer than this year.  But hear me out; I have a solution that will make everyone happy.  (Not to steal from my upcoming PT thread or anything.)

OH NO HE'S GOING TO BANG REDSHIRT DRUM AGAIN ISN'T HE

Hear me out:  plan to redshirt them both (unless break glass in case of injury).  We have plenty of guards next year.  BUT the year after that, less so.  And none are coming in this year.

SO

Max Joseph would get plenty of run in 2017-19, and maybe Davidson then sees Joseph-like minutes from this year.  If not, then he might just be able to pull a Will Bogan: graduate in 3 and still have 2 to play somewhere that he'd play more.

What sayest thou?

I don't mean things like "at least our white dudes don't have terrible facial hair/haircuts" or "our shot blocker never talked trash like a punk- ".

I'm thinking one for sure:  to lose like that moves the Bryce-o-meter at least two ticks closer to "Coming back to finish business". 

Hard to imagine him leaving before next year plays out.

What else is there to take away?

[The Us]

Time to get down to brass tacks.

The Us
you should know the us by now or you're on the wrong board

The Not Us


SIBMIHHAT is "should i be mad if he hits a three?", of course.  courtesy mgoblog.  %Min is the percent of the team's minutes played, while %Poss is percent of possessions used.

further (http://mgoblog.com/content/preview-maryland-0#more):

Maryland's attack is highlighted by a couple of attacking guards. Melo Trimble has been one of the most impressive freshmen in the conference. A proficient outside shooter, Trimble gets most of his production attacking the basket—his free throw rate is over 72%, and he hits 87% of his freebies. Dez Wells, the team's lead guard, is a more selective—and more efficient—three-point shooter who also gets to the line frequently. Both are solid, not spectacular, at distributing the ball without turning it over.

Richaud Pack regained his starting role this month after briefly losing it to Jared Nickens. Like Trimble and Wells, Pack gets to the line often; unlike those two, he doesn't do much else to get the offense going, shooting 33% on both twos and threes in Big Ten play. Nickens, who rotates into the lineup frequently, is almost exclusively a three-point shooter—he hits 40% of his attempts from beyond the arc.

Stretch four Jake Layman is the third option, and a quality one at that. As you can see, he's an effective scorer from pretty much anywhere:



Layman is also a very good defensive rebounder and decent shot-blocker. He'll see a good number of his minutes at center, where Damonte Dodd—a more traditional five—starts but plays reserve-level minutes.

The team's most-utilized reserve is a familiar face: Evan Smotrycz, the former Wolverine. His game hasn't changed much, and he's really struggling from the field this season—he's shot 38% from two and 26% from three in B1G play.

Shake it off and let's go 2-1 on Senior Nights.

Pretty much everything we wanted before Wednesday night is still on the table, with the exception of having the most wins in school history before the postseason (nice but not that great) and the possible exception of an at-large bid (because that wasn't a great chance to begin with).

I say we come out sharp, eager to get the upper hand.  CSU won't be able to match at first--being from The Cleve, they always come out Flats.

Those of us who have been around for a while remember the dark days.  And now, for just the second time in school history (and the first time post-Lutheran--the first time since the Harding administration, fergodsakes!) we have reversed the days of 4-24, with a good chance to set the school record for victories before the postseason.

Certainly it turned around in much faster than a quarter-century--after all, it was less than a decade from there to our high-water mark!--but at this peak, I just thought it is nice to look at the reflection in the trough.

Fer you youngins, there was a 3-year stretch when we were 14-68. No fooling.  (And let that be a lesson to people who only want to give a coach 3 or 4 years to prove him/herself...Homer was 24-87 in his first 4 years.)

What are y'alls' favorite memories of the early 90s? 

Shouldn't be too long a thread...

SSIA

...well, except #BeatDetroit

Is it that time again?  Yes it is.

(Am I tempting fate?  Karma?  Good; those aren't real things.)

Introducing DEATH MARCH OF THE PENGUINS 2015:  The Quest To Be the Worst Team In Horizon League History Or At Least Hopefully Better Than UIC Last Year.  Throughout the conference season we'll all be watching to find whether or not YSU can at least be the best—at being the worst.  You may have thought UIC was absolutely wretched last year (and they were), but at least they won amidst the many beatings they absorbed.  No, to be truly the worst, YSU has to lose ALL their games just to tie 2003-04 Cleveland State (0-16). 

The Horizon League has also never had a team with RPI below 2004-05's Youngstown St (321 out of 327, or 1.8 percentile).  YSU is 287/351, or 18th percentile—losing out would leave them 319/351, or 9.1%.

Third: in conference play, 2004-05 YSU was outscored by 13.2 ppg; 2014-15 YSU is being outscored by 12.2 ppg. 

Can they pull off the Pu Pu Platter, the Trifecta of Awful?  Doesn't look promising, since they're not quite as gawdoffal as UIC last year, but they keep underwhelming...ladies and gentlemen, your 2015 HL YSU Penguins!

I hereby declare the previous thread to be Olde Mexico.

Let's discuss Tertullian, who I believe is the founder of Trinity International, and such here.

First, happy St. Nicholas Day.  I hope you get as big a kick out of this as I did:


Secondly, speaking of vigils for the next day, it occurred to me how many Protestant groups don't have services (almost wrote Mass) on Christmas Day.  I remember reading about a divide that occurred when a few years ago (as it does) Christmas fell on Sunday and some still didn't have Sunday/Christmas services.

I was wondering what your respective communities have as their Christmas Eve/Day schedule?

And no, I'm not jealous because I'm playing 7 Masses myself.

Well, I figured somebody's got to do it.

Want to get psyched?  Try the last two meeting recaps, but be mindful of Paul Oren's astute observation that the only two Crusaders to have played more than 4 minutes during the last 2 meetings are Vashil and Alec (!)

2012:  http://espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=323640093
2013:  http://espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=400503059

Takeaway being if it's close late, don't sweat it--we got this.

I hope.

Let's call this a corollary to the Over/Under prediction.

You predict the mpg for the whole team for the year.  Might not be what you WANT to see happen, but what you think WILL end up happening.

Here's the roster:  give it a shot before tip on Friday and predict their end-of-year minutes-per-game average.  3 sig figs, although giving just two is fine, we'll assume ".0" in that case.

Won't have to perfectly add up to 200 but should come pretty close.  This could be fun.

K Carter
EV Nickerson
T Walker
M Joseph
D Walker
D Skara
V Fernandez
N Davidson
J Adekoya
A Peters
D Chadwick

Let's say...
"on the money" -- accurate to 3 sig figs, 75 points
"close enough" -- +/- 1 mpg, 20 pts
"eh...yeah" -- +/- 1 to 3 mpg, 5 pts

how's that sound?  and yes, h-man, I'll be in on this one for sure.

[OVER or UNDER?]

ONE WEEK AWAY

Submit your answers below.  Closest to the pin could get a special prize, like one of my extra "Valpo Loves Bryce!" posters the Post-Trib made in 1994.  Because last year's champ *cough* didn't want it

No submission or editing after tipoff next Friday.

Last year's thread: http://www.valpofanzone.com/forum/index.php?topic=1621.0
Results:  http://www.valpofanzone.com/forum/index.php?topic=1621.msg44248#msg44248

OVER or UNDER?

1)  Keith Carter:  3.7 apg

2)  EV Nickerson:  15 mpg

3)  Tevonn Walker:  4.1 gs

4)  Max Joseph:  1.0 spg

5)  Darien Walker:  78% FT%

6)  David Skara:  49% 2FG%

7)  Vashil Fernandez:  2.0 bpg

8)  Nick Davidson:  45% FG%

10)  Jubril Adekoya:  4.9 rpg

11)  Alec Peters:  16.9 ppg

12)  David Chadwick:  35% 3FG%

13)  Team:  20 wins

14)  Tie-breaker--team points per game, to 3 sig figs

Interesting that Griffith has twins who are both very tall and fairly good:

http://posttrib.suntimes.com/sports/highschools/28668978-556/basketball-griffith-twins-anthony-and-tremell-murphy-getting-recruiting-attention.html#.U8bBqlagEkE

We are not mentioned, although many schools are listed as having shown interest (Chicago St the only school to offer both so far).  But it's time to start worrying about two years out, since 2014 looks like it's in the books, albeit with a banked scholarship.

Who's out there?  VerbalCommits lists no one so far...

Wondered if anyone else had an issue with clicking on the "new" post button...lately, on multiple topics across multiple boards, I am brought not to a specific post, but somewhere in the middle of the page, and then I have to scroll down.  FirstWorldProblems, I know, but wondering if Safari is letting me down or what?

I have the honor of playing the funeral Mass for Dr. Jack Ramsay at 11 this Thursday.

Because I'm on the younger side, I remember him from his articles on ESPN, but my father, a Buffalo Braves season ticket holder back in the day, is even more excited than I. 

He was a great man, and I could go on, but I'll let his son do the better job:
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10851183/dr-jack-ramsay-father-friend

And I'll post this here as a notice to myself at least--and please remind me of it come the fall if I forget his wisdom:

my sister showed me this.  i hadn't seen it since i saw it live.

and no, sis, that wasn't me shirtless, although one of them did look a bit like me.  my seats weren't quite that good.

still the single best sporting event i've ever attended.  were you there?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjIrdl_mEP0

Presented without hilarious comment, because this IS its own hilarious comment.

cuse yakety sax

My dad grew up with Jim in Lyons, NY, and thinks he must have died a thousand deaths watching this.

Just thought I would throw this up here--there's a bracket challenge!

http://www.horizonleague.org/challenge/new

Prize is "HL prize package" and "2 season tix to school of your choice".

Top bracket by school (favorite team) wins the proverbial "HL prize package".

Being me, I will fill out two: one for how I hope it will go, and one for how I think it will go.

[Athletic Department Revenue, 2013]

Athletic Department Revenue, 2013
206) Illinois-Chicago $13.65 (million)
219) Valparaiso $12.95 ($12,946,139 to be exact)
225) Youngstown St $12.55
237) Detroit $12.18
241) Milwaukee $11.78
267) Cleveland St $10.91
279) Oakland $10.38
290) Wright St $9.94
322) Green Bay $7.54
collected from http://www.bbstate.com/info/teams-revenue

Athletic Department Expenses, 2013
217) Valparaiso $12.95 (million) ($12,946,139 to be exact...hm...sounds familiar...)
223) Youngstown St $12.55
224) Illinois-Chicago $12.51
235) Detroit $11.98
239) Milwaukee $11.78
263) Cleveland St $10.91
277) Oakland $10.38
288) Wright St $9.94
323) Green Bay $7.49
http://www.bbstate.com/info/teams-budget

Valpo, YSU, Milwaukee, CSU, Oakland, and WSU just HAPPEN to all break exactly even
UIC (!) realized profit of over a million dollars from athletics; Detroit around 200K and GB about 50K.

How fiscally wise are they compared to their peers? (spots different on the list...)
Valpo +2
YSU +2
Detroit +2
GB -1
Milwaukee -2
Oakland -2
WSU -2
CSU -4
UIC -18


Men's Basketball Expenses, 2013
116) Detroit $2.512 (million)
135) Cleveland St $2.255
143) Milwaukee $2.150
149) Wright St $2.050
171) Valparaiso $1.782
204) Illinois-Chicago $1.519
213) Green Bay $1.449
227) Oakland $1.389
278) Youngstown St $1.075
http://www.bbstate.com/info/teams-hoopsbudget

Now for the fun one:
Cost Per Win (NB: 2011-12)
52) YSU $67,197.38
59) Oakland $69,471.75
85) Valpo $80,995.95
124) Green Bay $96,605
135) CSU $102,490.50
144) Milwaukee $107,511.30
152) Detroit $114,185.55
198) WSU $157,722.23
231) UIC $189,934.38
http://www.bbstate.com/info/teams-perwin

Vanderbilt the top BCS-level team at #28--$55,948.24 p/w

Tonight had the feel of a sectional semifinal where what happened was everything that was expected, and sets up the doozy for Saturday night.

The winner has the inside track to host the conference championship.

My question to you, the 7-4 Crusader fan, is this:  who do we root for?

a)  10-2 GB, because then we have a better shot at our more realistic goal (2nd seed and double bye)--passing CSU

or

b)  9-3 CSU, because then we have a decent shot at the best goal (championship), with just a game behind both teams--each of whom we still get to play...

thoughts?

04, I notice the "Game Day" option at the front every now and then, but it's always blank.

Was there something intended for there?

It might be nice to have the video & chat there as maybe more would find it since now they have to scroll on the main screen.

MAYBE IT COULD EVEN FLASH GOLD AND BROWN WHEN LIVE

(sorry to make suggestions when i don't know anything about computers.  i'm a musician. the only thing I know about computers is that you can put the print shop floppy upside down and play the driver game.  thanks broderbund.)

[Introducing FLAMEQUEST 2014: The Quest To Be the Worst Team In Horizon League History Or At Least Hopefully Better Than Milwaukee Last Year]

Back by unpopular demand.

Introducing FLAMEQUEST 2014:  The Quest To Be the Worst Team In Horizon League History Or At Least Hopefully Better Than Milwaukee Last Year.  Throughout the conference season we'll all be watching to find whether or not UIC can at least be the best—at being the worst.  You may have thought Milwaukee was absolutely wretched last year (and they were), but at least they won amidst the many beatings they absorbed.  No, to be truly the worst, UIC has to lose ALL their games just to tie 2003-04 Cleveland State (0-16). 

The Horizon League has also never had a team with RPI below 2004-05 Youngstown St (321 out of 327, or 1.8 percentile).  UIC is 293/349, or 16th percentile—losing out would leave them 324/349, or 7.2% (RealTimeRPI says they are 294 now...). 

Third: in conference play, 2004-05 YSU was outscored by 13.2 ppg; RPI Forecast has UIC on track to be outscored by 8.2 ppg (currently losing by only 8.7 ppg).  Can they pull off the Pu Pu Platter, the Trifecta of Awful?

Doesn't look promising, since they're not quite as gawdoffal as UWM last year, but they've set the barlow and keep underwhelming...ladies and gentlemen, your 2014 HL UIC FLAMES!

As of 1/23/14
Record:  0-6
RPI:  294
Scoring margin: -8.6
NEXT GAME: @ OAK
CHANCE OF WINNING: 21%
MARGIN:  9
Thing they are like:  A great big rock teetering precariously on the precipice of a mountain.  The mountain's name is Mt. Awfuldom.

Well, I'm going to start this one, because good things happened the only other time I started a game thread.

Anton Grady did not play vs. WSU, but did this week at UIC.  Only logged 16 minutes because of fouling out, but their backup forward-type went off.

74 team points, 64 from 4 players and 10 from all else.  http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=400506635

Why does it seem we're the only balanced team in the conference?

Who'd have thought my 6-2 January would still be on the table at this point?

Does asking a lot of questions help promote conversation on posts?

I guess our collective reticence towards the rest of the season is literally indicated here, since I never start game threads, and am doing so fewer than 30 hours before tipoff.

Remember when this used to be a rivalry?
http://www.valpofanzone.com/forum/index.php?topic=1163.0 (game one)
http://www.valpofanzone.com/forum/index.php?topic=1240.0 (eh, well, game two)

People that don't know stuff don't remember:

http://msn.foxsports.com/detroit/story/detroit-oakland-renew-revilary-011114
Dana Wakiji from FSDetroit.  I mean, even the hyperlink has a typo.

Then again, given how they revile each other, maybe it's intentional.

Remember how it used to feel to hate?  Someone?  Anyone? Ah, the memories.

http://www.valpofanzone.com/forum/index.php?topic=1024.msg23467#msg23467

This is how the official standings look after the first weekend of play.


But it's not really accurate.  At least, it's not as accurate as would be helpful.  For instance, you would assume from looking at this that Green Bay is first in the conference and Milwaukee third.

But they're not.  Not really.  Hear me out:  Winning at home is simply something that should be done, right?  Holding serve.  And when you can steal one on the road, you've REALLY done something.  Everyone knows these basic postulates.

However, the standings, as constructed, don't bear this reality out, for a couple reasons:
--With 9 teams, there will be games-in-hand, the importance of which every hockey fan knows;
--though the league tries to balance home and away as best they can, there will be slight imbalances that will only be fully rectified by the final standings.  Some teams will play more on the road first, and some more at home.

As we saw with the HL non-con standings, home-court is a better advantage if you're a better team.  For instance, it didn't do a whole lot for UIC in the non-con, as we saw.  And Wright St still has yet to lose at home, although it might help if they played a team with more than four people on their roster.  (And they have yet to win on the road, by the way.)  But it's still important.

These standings give one point for winning on the road, and subtract one for losing at home.  That is why CSU is in first place--because not only did they win on the road, they've still got all 8 home games left, as you can see.  And while Green Bay is technically in first place, they still have all 8 road games left.  But so does Milwaukee--and they've already lost at home.  Therefore, even though the "official" standings have them third--because of why?  Non-conference wins?  How do they help you win the HL?  Oh, that's right, they don't.

Here's where the league really stands after the first batch of games.  Sorted by the road "points" system, then by overall wins, then by games played (the fewer the better because more chances to win).

Below the standings, you see the conference game by game results.  Reading across finds you the result of the game for the home team (in the rows) versus the away team (in the columns).

I'll keep this updated throughout the year, if you find it useful.

[In the rematches, we have been net-outscored by 21 points, or basically we lose a point a game in the rematch.]

Call me crazy, but before I criticize--or praise--teenagers playing a game for free, I'd rather look at the grown men who already have degrees who are paid to coach the game.

Today's focus is on the REMATCH.  We just lost by 28 to a team that we beat by 15 last month.  Obviously that's the worst swing in recent memory, but how representative is it?

Take a look at this chart:

Here we have all the in-season rematches Bryce has taken part in.  I've separated them by where they took place, because obviously, home-court advantage (HCA).

Now, Sagarin thinks that HCA is worth around 4 points in MCBB.  Now, whether we get more or less HCA at the ARC...that is a whole other topic.

Bryce has had 22 games that pitted his team against a team they had played earlier in the year (note the 4 '3-peats' in the file, due to playing the last two HL tourneys at home.  These are considered as separate pairs, i.e. Games 1 & 2 and Games 2 & 3)

In the rematches, we have been net-outscored by 21 points, or basically we lose a point a game in the rematch.  This may or may not be statistically significant.  If we'd just lost by 7 yesterday, there would be no difference, for example, so it may just be noise.

Look at the games where we first played at home.  We lose an average of 7.33 ppg on the rematch.  But since we'd expect to lose 8 anyway (4 for our home + 4 for theirs), that's well within the realm of expectation, and even slightly better.

Now, the games played first on the road.  We gain 4.8 ppg on the rematch.  But we'd have expected to GAIN 8 this time, so that's not as great.

The other two, home-then-home, are HL tourney games from 2012.  Remember that Butler game?  Nored crying on the bench?  That was great.  Juuuuuust stop the memories right there.  Mmm.  Yep.  Nothing happened after that, for sure.

Anyway those are good games to look at because the court didn't change.  We were better in one but decidedly not in whatever that other one was.

2011-12 lost 33 points on 4 road rematches, about what you'd expect (8 a game).  And curiously they netted 33 points on 4 road rematches, to break even.  Then of course the tourney.  Oh well.  Negative 8 for the year, but over 10 games, so less than a point a game.

2012-13 actually GAINED 10 points net on four road rematches, which is not what you'd expect at all.  Then they gained another 20 on home rematches.  This is a net gain of 3 points per rematch, quite a bit better than the year before.

Part of the problem in measuring things, however, is that they cannot be done in isolation.  Is it coaching that improved 4 ppg in rematches from 2012 to 2013?  Or was it the players becoming older/better?  Probably a combination of both, since Bryce was going from Year One to Year Two (a huge gain hopefully), and a lot of the players were going from Year 3 to 4.

(All we have this year for several weeks is yesterday's debacle.)

So, finally, let's look at Bryce--his record in rematches, and then the score vs. expectations (that is to say, the margin of victory or loss the first time, recalculated for HCA).

Bryce has lost 3 road rematches that he won the first half of.
He has won 2 road rematches that he lost the first half of.
He has swept them both 4 times.

Bryce has lost 1 home rematch that he won the first half of (Detroit last year...soundofteethgritting.mp4)
He has won 2 home rematches that he'd lost the first half of.
He's swept the other 8 pairs. 

Takeaway: he's never lost twice to the same team in the same year.  He's 4-4 in expectations (beating a team they'd lost to vs. losing to a team they'd beaten).

This would be a good place (heck, there's never a bad time) to mention that he's won 3 straight against Butler, and VU 4 in a row.

Finally, Bryce vs. "the spread", i.e. the 8-ppg expectations of HCA: 10-12
2011-12:  5-6
2012-13: 5-5
This year: 0-1

[Who are the people whose Crusader debuts are those to which you have MOST looked forward?]

Well, the long wait is over, and Keith Carter is suiting up soon in the Sunshine State.  (try saying that five point four times fast)

Certainly it's a highly anticipated debut, for a number of reasons:
--it's a midseason addition to a good team (usually a team debuts all together)
--he's a transfer from a good program
--and also, HE'S GOOD you guys.

Got me thinking--who are the people whose first game in the Brown and Gold you have anxiously looked forward to?  And who paid off and then some?  I think back to Bryce, obviously.   

Then there were people that maybe weren't as touted but should have been (Brandon Wood).

There were those that were looked forward to and maybe weren't as good as the hype, but still good (Kenny Harris).

Then those who were hyped but really could have saved us all the drama (Tony Falu, Mo Kone--maybe Rob Harden, peoples?).

Who are the people whose Crusader debuts are those to which you have MOST looked forward? 

(A preposition at the end of a sentence is something up with which I will not put)

[School Stats]

Thought I'd put up a post (sticky, 04?) with helpful links.  Can add as others see fit?  Please suggest below.

School Stats
VU Record Book:
http://www.valpoathletics.com/media/basketball-men/Media%20Guide%20Info/Record%20Book.pdf

Season-by-season (only this millennium):
http://www.valpoathletics.com/mbasketball/statisticsalltime/

Team & Individual Stats
BBState fascinating site--watch your pageviews because free are apparently limited!
HL Page http://www.bbstate.com/conferences/HL
VU Page http://www.bbstate.com/teams/VALP
Stats/Splits http://www.bbstate.com/teams/VALP/stats/_/PPG

sports-reference
VU page http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/valparaiso/2014.html
HL page http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/conferences/horizon/2014.html

Statsheet has pretty much everything, just laid out unattractively
VU Page http://statsheet.com/mcb/teams/valparaiso?season=2013-2014
Team Stat Page http://statsheet.com/mcb/teams/valparaiso/team_stats?type=all
Players http://statsheet.com/mcb/teams/valparaiso/players

ESPN helpful game-by-game schedule look
VU Page http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/2674/valparaiso-crusaders
Player Stats http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/stats/_/id/2674/valparaiso-crusaders
by average and raw totals

National Rankings
RPI Forecast
HL Page http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/Horz.html
VU Page http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Valparaiso.html

credit to covufan:
Sagarin rankings:
http://sagarin.com/sports/cbsend.htm

Massey College Basketball:
Composite Ranking across sites http://www.masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm
Massey Ratingshttp://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=cb&sub=NCAA I
VU Page http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8361&s=203290

Teamrankings:
Predictive Rankingshttp://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/ranking/predictive-by-other
HL Projections scroll downhttp://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/projections/standings/

RealTimeRPI
http://realtimerpi.com/ncaab/281_Men.html?Valparaiso

One of the many cool things about this board is the ability to embed images, and hyperlinks, etc.  Youtube and other videos automatically embed.

Wondering how hard it is to embed tweets?  I noticed that Twitter has a code to embed, but I can never make it work, so I just cut and paste.

If it's easy to do great; if not no sweat we can just keep on like normal.

Just to have a convenient place to stick them all for reference.  First up?  Your friend and mine...

http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20131107/SPORTS0203/311070050/1004/SPORTS/Carlton-Brundidge-steps-into-big-shoes-with-Detroit

Outlook: There are simply too many questions (experience, perimeter shooting, post game) for Detroit to challenge for the Horizon League title. If the pieces fall into place — if Brundidge can be consistent at the point and the Titans are successful as more of a transition team that relies more on endurance and a deeper bench than the half-court game — Detroit could finish .500 in the league and pull off a surprise or two in the league tournament.

Obviously, Bryce. (MBB)

And (apparently less obviously than it should be) Legendary Lloyd McClendon. (baseball)

Maybe Zobeck since he's in the League. (futbol)

Real football has a few guys who might lay claim to it (though I would think there's one easy choice).

Who else?  Who would you nominate for the most famous/outstanding alumnus or alumna in each sport at Valpo?

Ground rules:
--I use "alumnus/alumna" loosely in the sense that as long as they played here, not "they possess a sheepskin saying Valparaiso on it"
--This is "famous" in the "athletic achievements" sense, not "oh there was that one guy who played football and founded eBay" or something.

[I should've done this last year]

So originally this was to have been a much longer post (and, wh, it'd've pushed a certain one down the front page) but I just kind of jumped the shark.

But inspired by MJ's excellent and helpful post on Comings and Goings, I revived a little bit and am putting it here for your edification.  This is a look at this year based on minutes played last year.  If I cared to go back and do career minutes, well then I'd be a little ridiculous.  Obviously this doesn't count players that will make an impact, whether they be transfers becoming eligible (Brundidge), impact freshmen (Peters), JUCO types (Dauda).  But when it comes to D1, well, I'll leave it to the John Wooden of game-show hosts.


Those of you who are hard-core VU fans and would point out that I should've done this last year, well,


Those of you that would point out that I've never had a statistics course, well, you know what?  I never had a math class above track 2 pre-cal in HS.  So there. 

(But I did ace the math on the SAT & the GRE.  Plus I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express once.)

PREMISE:  Experience is good. 
More experience is better. 
Better players with experience are better than players with experience because obviously.



Obviously WSU has the most returning minutes, by a long shot.  There is a tight group from 2 (CSU) thru 5 (Oakland), but a disparity with how many points per 40 minutes those players returning have scored (this is a simple sum).  Obviously Detroit and VU lost the most, but Detroit returns almost as much as Green Bay!

Well, you say, not all experience is GOOD experience.  What about the heavy minute loggers?  After all, GB's Sykes & Brown logged more minutes than all the returnees for Detroit or Valpo.  Add in Fouse and Mays and that's more minutes than Detroit AND Valpo returning, just in 4 Phoenix.

There are 10 players in the Horizon League who averaged more than 30 mpg last year.  3 of them play for Oakland.  Those three players (Bader, Petros, Mondy), bring almost enough scoring to match a Green Bay team if it had 2 Sykeses and a Brown (or 2 Browns and a Sykes)...now there's a scary thought.  And for all the talk about Green Bay, YSU's Perry and Belin are about the (scoring) equal of Sykes and Brown. 

Cleveland's number of 20+ minute players is equal to WSU's, but their scoring was much higher.  These numbers might appear to be skewed by the injury to Anton Grady (i.e. if he hadn't been injured, everyone else's minutes and points would likely have suffered), but because he's back now, it's fair to count his mpg (27) and his pts/40 (20.3).  This bodes well for the Cleve, as well as returning 7 players who averaged more than 10 mpg. 

Wright State's 9 returnees of 10+ mpg is astounding; Detroit had just 6 players who averaged that many all of last year, and though Valpo also had 9 players last year who did so, obviously only 3 of those are back.  Again, you could make the case that the Darling injury skews those numbers somewhat.  WSU is the only team in the Horizon that didn't even have a 30+ mpg player last year (Arcenaux topped out at 29.9).  This is a product of their system, which skews the pts/40 (but it's simply handy as a stat, not a be-all).

From the looks of this at least, Youngstown is underrated by returning minutes and scoring, coming in 3rd in almost every way you sort these 8 columns. 

Oakland's big 3 are just that--a big 3, as only one other returnee averaged 10 mpg (Dante Williams).  So while they have a core unmatched in this league (#1 in pts per 40 by 30 mpg players) they are thin elsewhere (falling to 4th in 20- and 10-mpg). It will be interesting to see how Bader and Co. adjust (and are adjusted to).

UIC has Hayden Humes, and otherwise stats that look like Valpo's.

Milwaukee has experience (not good) but some.  I mean that girl who dated around in your high school had a lot of experience too--experience getting dumped.  It's scarring, so look for Milwaukee to have a different coach to take them to the next prom.  No wait, terrible analogy, since Milwaukee won't be going to the Dance until the Clinton administration.

(And I mean Chelsea. coldshudder.gif)

So of course it looks drab for Detroit and Valpo in this light, but here's the kicker:  they are 1st and 2nd, respectively, when you look at the quality of points per minute returning (points per 40) over (minutes returning over 40), and are the only 2 teams over a point a minute.  Of course, this has a lot to do with pace of play, so you'd expect this--a rising tide of possessions lifts all scorers.  Green Bay is last (half as many points per minute as Detroit).  So for all the fuss about the big 2 returning, it'll depend on everyone else producing to make them end up top where half of people thought they'd be (or else they'll end up at the bottom where the other half thought).

Here are the top all 10 returning scorers in points per minute, over 30 mpg played:
1) Bader (Oak) 23.1
2) Perry (YSU) 19.6
3) Brown (GB) 18.43
4) Sykes (GB) 18.38
5) Aaron (UWM) 16.2
6) Mondy (Oak) 15.3
7) Petros (Oak) 14.8
8) Belin (YSU) 14.5
9) Lee (CSU) 13.5
10) Humes (UIC) 12.5

Here are the top 10 returning scorers in points per minute, over 20 mpg played:
1) Bader (Oak) 23.1
2) Grady (CSU) 20.3
3) Perry (YSU) 19.6
4) Darling (WSU) 18.5
5) Brown (GB) 18.43
6) Sykes (GB) 18.38
7) Forbes (CSU) 18.0
8) Aaron (UWM) 16.2
9) Dority (Valpo) 16.1
10) Mondy (Oak) 15.3

Here are the top 10 returning scorers in points per minute, over 10 mpg played:
1) Bader (Oak) 23.1
2) Grady (CSU) 20.3
3) Perry (YSU) 19.6
4) Darling (WSU) 18.5
5) Brown (GB) 18.43
6) Sykes (GB) 18.38
7) Young (WSU) 17.99
8) Forbes (CSU) 17.95
9) Hain (YSU) 16.5
10) Yoho (WSU) 16.24

And the Nick Shelton Memorial Gunnin' For It Award goes to Stephen Gossard of WSU who played just 15 minutes over 6 games all year, but scored 7 points, for an average pts/40 of 19.2.  Second place goes to Detroit's Olumide Solanke whose 4 points in 9 minutes (over 7 games) would have been 18.5/40 if Coach McCallum had just emptied his bench like a normal compassionate human (er...well, at the beginning of the game, since it's per 40 : )

I have all kinds of raw data in an Excel sheet, so if you want to find some fun numbers (rebounding?) just let me know.

Just thought it might be fun to see what people have or had.

(You can upload pics at http://postimage.org/ and simply pasting the "direct link" code within the image button, to embed which will be easier and better than attaching them.)

Here's a blast from the previous millennium:

[OVER or UNDER?]

Submit your answers below.  Closest to the pin will get, I don't know, a special prize, like one of my extra "Valpo Loves Bryce!" posters the Post-Trib made in 1994.

No submission or editing after tipoff Friday

OVER or UNDER?

1)  Keith Carter:  5.0 apg

2)  Jordan Coleman:  9.5 ppg

3)  LaVonte Dority:  80% FTs

4)  Bobby Capobianco:  75 3PT att

5)  Moussa Gueye:  2.0 bpg

6)  Clay Yeo:  20 mpg

7)  Vashil Fernandez:  6.5 rpg

8)  Lexus Williams:  0.8 spg

9)  Nick Davidson:  redshirt?  yes or no

10)  Jubril Adekoya:  22 games played

11)  Alec Peters:  45% FG%

12)  David Chadwick:  35% 3FG%

13)  Team:  20 wins

14)  Tie-breaker--team points per game, to 3 sig figs

No, not the kind that takes place every day on this board, but by people more intelligent than we are (who knew they even existed?):

http://www.ncregister.com/daily-news/after-five-centuries-of-division-catholics-and-lutherans-consider-their-com/

Thought this was interesting and wanted some Lutheran feedback.  Haven't read the new document, but will soon.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/25/sports/ncaafootball/college-footballs-most-dominant-player-its-espn.html?ref=ncaafootball&_r=0

Won't often find me recommending the NYT, but this line seemed to echo something that we've mentioned on these pages.

But of 340 Division I colleges, the athletic departments at only 23 generate enough revenue to cover their expenses, according to a report that Daniel Fulks of Transylvania University prepared for the N.C.A.A. in May.

Interesting article.

I'm sorry...I have to inflict this on everyone else.  (It's like "paying it forward" but with hazing.)

what with all the talk about BCS schools, it should be mentioned that they don't have ALL the advantages:  we don't have one of these.

Purdue Rap Video

http://valpoathletics.com/mbasketball/news/2013-14/12794/diebler-departs-crusader-coaching-staff/

Congrats, man, but I believe I speak for everyone here, not just as a Michigan Man, when I say "the hell with OSU"

Since a good deal of the Internet exists solely for people to give advice to people who are happier than they themselves are, I thought that with the conclusion of the spring sports schedule we might delve into what we feel the boys need to work on in order to hit the ground running in October.

So what are your prescriptions for the lads?

I'll start and say that if we're really going to "go large" then Capo will need to improve his jump shooting, especially 3s, because I have a feeling there will be more attempts than 17 this year.

(I'm reminded of Charles Barkley, barking at A.C. Green [kind of like the black Bryce Drew in certain non-basketball ways] at the line, "Hey, A.C., if God is so good, then why didn't he give you a jump shot?")

[he got his law degree from Valpo]

http://www.buffalonews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20130602/SPORTS/130609848/two-bills-drive-1004

I was reading this article on NFL superagent Eugene Parker, who's easily one of the best in the business, and certainly one of the most respected.

What I didn't know is that he got his law degree from Valpo.

Is this common knowledge?  This guy should be giving commencement addresses and stuff.  In the words of Ron Burgundy,

http://posttrib.suntimes.com/sports/20131285-556/basketball-matt-thomas-named-new-valpo-boys-coach-candy-wilson-leaves-boone-for-valpo-jv.html

For those who haven't seen it yet.  Matt was a couple years ahead of Bryce, and I remember him filling in for Bryce when ... perhaps when Bryce was still having heart problems?  We were 8-14 his freshman year--one of the rare times he's ever been a part of a losing team.

Regardless, I digress.  I do remember, even though this is 20+ years ago, that a sports writeup was less than complimentary and a parent of another teammate, or neighbor? (a mother I'm pretty sure) wrote in impassioned defense of his work ethic and how hard he worked, etc.

He will be successful as well. 106-14 as the JV coach. 

Also interesting that Candy Wilson, a successful girls' coach for Boone Grove, left to become JV at VHS, unless Joe Otis is just keeping her seat warm.

I do worry about what will happen to my friend -- our friend! -- Jeannette Gray though.

And to think we generally remember Craig Hodges for his ignominious record as head coach at Chicago State...

or for

When the Chicago Bulls visited the White House after winning the 1992 NBA Championship, Hodges dressed in a dashiki and delivered a hand-written letter addressed to then President George H. W. Bush, expressing his discontent at the administration's treatment of the poor and minorities.[15]
Hodges also criticized his Bulls teammate Michael Jordan for not using his fame to draw attention to social and political issues, and said Jordan was "bailing out" for not being politically outspoken.[16]
In 1996, Hodges filed a $40 million lawsuit against the NBA and its then 29 teams, claiming they blackballed him for his association with Louis Farrakhan and criticism of "African-American professional athletes who failed to use their considerable wealth and influence to assist the poor and disenfranchised."[12] After he was waived by the Bulls in 1992, he did not receive an offer or a tryout from a single NBA team, even though he was only 32 years old and still able to contribute to contenders. The lawsuit claimed that Bulls assistant coach Jim Cleamons told him that the team was troubled by his criticism of players' lack of involvement in inner-city communities.[15] The suit also claimed Billy McKinney, the director of player personnel for the Seattle SuperSonics initially showed interest in Hodges in 1992, and then shortly after backed away, telling Hodges he could do nothing because "brothers have families, if you know what I mean." While a Bulls official said Hodges was waived as he was getting old and could not play defense, head coach Phil Jackson said, "I also found it strange that not a single team called to inquire about him. Usually, I get at least one call about a player we've decided not to sign. And yes, he couldn't play much defense, but a lot of guys in the league can't, but not many can shoot from his range, either."[12]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Craig_Hodges

[Erick Locke]

According to VerbalCommits, the only extant offer at this point is Erick Locke.

6'0, 180 lb PG from Oak Park (transferred for jr & sr seasons after 2 years at Brooks College Prep.)
Lost to perennial power Proviso East 67-48 in the Schaumburg sectional final.  Scored 15 in the semi to get them there, Oak Park's first sectional final in 20 years, then added a game-high 21 in the final, 5 boards and 6 steals.  16 of the 21 were in the 2nd half, so you could take it either way:  "still a battler" or "just an opportunist".
Jr year honors: All-conference; honorable mention All-State.

From Brad Spencer, sports editor at OakPark.com:

Incoming junior transfer Erick Locke, a 6-foot guard who played at Brooks College Prep in Chicago under his father, Bobby, last season, already has several Division I offers on the table, including from Valparaiso, UIC, and Chicago State. Other schools that have shown interest in Locke are Santa Clara, Western Michigan, Northern Illinois and Wright State.

Add Tulsa and every other DI Chicago school to that interest list (DePaul, Loyola, etc.  Bradley too)

On the transfer:

Last month [May 2012], Bobby Locke was fired from the head coaching position at Brooks, and the Chicago Tribune recently reported it was due to residency issues that involved his son. The Lockes apparently live in Oak Park, but listed the Chicago address of a relative so Erick could be eligible to attend Brooks, according to the Tribune report.

...so...how many people LIVE in Oak Park but lie fabricate addresses & the truth to attend school in Chicago?  Isn't that supposed to be happening the other way around?

Freshman year stats (all I could find, and that's just for 7 games!): 24.3 ppg, 6.1 apg, 3.9 rpg, 3.4 spg

Highlight tape:
Class Of 2014 Erick Locke Is About That Life! One Of Top Scorers In The Country!

Basically an LVD Jr, from 'the City', to the build, to the game.  It will be interesting to see whether the (assumed) emergence of Keith Carter (and Lexus Williams) deter him at all; then again, speaking of LVD, perhaps he ends up as an offense-creator rather than initiator (note the ability to draw contact and finish in the video above), and so finally like LVD ends up a Vinnie Johnson-style 2 rather than a Chauncey Billups-style 1.

[Ryan Fazekas]

Who better to kick this thread off with than Ryan Fazekas?

6'7, 185 lb wing from MC Marquette. 
Lost to Clay Yeo and Triton in the sectional championship.
Soph stats: 14.3 ppg, 7.7 rpg, and an Broekhoffesque 91% from the free throw line. 
Second team all-area to the NWI times, who had this to say:

He produces inside and outside, but a feathery touch that extends to the arc and his ability to handle the ball like a guard has drawn the attention of several Big Ten schools.

Has interest from Michigan and IU, but in a (now year-old) interview with UMHoops had this to say:

Fazekas listed Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana, Ohio State, Xavier, Northwestern, Oregon, New Mexico, Purdue along with "bunch of other small schools" when prompted for a school list but also mentioned his scholarship offer from Valparaiso.

"It felt good when they offered me. I was only 14 years old. I never expected to be offered that young," recalled Fazkekas. "This is only my fourth year playing and I'm still developing. I felt ecstatic when they offered me. But I'm still looking for options and I'm going to keep my options open for a while."

Fazekas has visited Valparaiso, Michigan, Michigan State and Indiana noting that he plans to attend camps at both Butler and Michigan this summer.

Freshman highlight reel:
Ryan Fazekas 6'6" 185 lbs. Class of 2015 G/F

Bottom line:  an amazing shooter.  Though he could easily end up 6'9, he has the skills/handle/range/general look of a 2 or 3 and so has the potential to be a nightmare mismatch there.  But could he be the next Rowdy if Alec Peters has a lock on the job?

There are other things to talk about right now, but we haven't talked much about a major thing going down:

What started four years ago as a simple, if big-dreaming, lawsuit – former UCLA basketball great Ed O'Bannon suing over the NCAA's continued use of his likeness, long after his 1996 graduation, in a video game – has snowballed into a legal challenge of college sports' entire economic model.

I'm not sure how it will affect mid-major, basketball-only schools like our HL--but it will...

Later in the article, our own Setshot's true identity is exposed :

Last week, a cadre of college administrators, including Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany, Texas athletic director DeLoss Dodds and Wake Forest president Nathan Hatch, submitted written declarations in an effort to persuade the judge from granting class action. They were mostly filled with gloom-and-doom predictions of what would happen should colleges have to actually share any of the money with current or past players.

Much of the media attention has focused on Delany claiming the Big Ten would never comply and instead would "take steps to downsize the scope, breadth and activities of their athletic programs," he wrote. "Several models exist ... such as Division III."

This is more for the off-season, but since that won't be for a while I didn't want to forget

[1) whenever Appling spins, he puts it in his right hand. SO easy to steal his ice cream that way.]

1)  whenever Appling spins, he puts it in his right hand.  SO easy to steal his ice cream that way.



2)  make a really EEEEEE!!! happy face when you do so.  i hear you're good at that.



3)  the only part you'll want/need to work on is the dunk at the end. but i s'pose that's optional.



4)  BONUS GARY HARRIS PROTIP:  you can make steals on him by sagging off at just the right time to anticipate his blatantly obvious passing.


stay cool, bro.  #BallaFoLife
show?  show.
Trey Burke Steals Win

see you in the championship game.

[Congrats to Coach Dorow for officially inking her very own VU recruit!]

Figured this deserves its own thread...and if there were a previous one it would be under the previous administration.

Congrats to Coach Dorow for officially inking her very own VU recruit!

http://www.valpoathletics.com/wbasketball/news/2012-13/12435/womens-hoops-inks-isaac-to-national-letter-of-intent/


Aliyah Isaac
STATUS:  signed NLI (early period)
HEIGHT:  5'9"
POSITION:  off guard
FROM:  Richton Park, IL
ATTENDS:  Marian Catholic
AAU:  the Illinois XCitement (no wonder our kids text the way they do)
COACH DOROW SAYS:  "Aliyah is a lock-down defender and with Laura (Richards) graduating, we will be losing our most physical perimeter defender. Aliyah will not back down from her opponent. She will put pressure on people and keep them in front of her. Aliyah also handles the ball well, and she should be a perfect fit in our offensive system."

VIDEO:  from HS Cube  http://www.highschoolcube.com/students/aliyah-isaac

MARIAN CATHOLIC:  Practically in the Region, MCHS has produced a number of D1 basketball players--lately, they've been mostly women.  (For instance, MCHS '09 Kaila Turner of #2 Notre Dame!) Teammates Megan Walsh (Truman State) and Melanie Ransom (Davidson) have also signed, and there are more in this pipeline:  the team was ranked #1 preseason by the Southtown Star (in fact the team stars are actually underclass guards Teniya Page and Ashton Millender. ESCC Coach of the Year Annie Byrne has said ""It's probably easier to say which [B1G] teams aren't looking at Teniya"!). 
http://www.marianchs.com/athletics/womens-basketball/images/wbkb.jpg



Earlier this year the team put up 101 against Kenosha (WI) Tremper, led in that game by Isaac with 11.
http://seasonpass.suntimes.com/news_article/show/201984?referrer_id=681664

They were 4A Regional Champs (IL's largest classification), and more impressively, champions of the ESCC (East Suburban Catholic Conference) which produced one other 4A regional champ and 3 3A regional champs (one of whom was 2-7 in conference)!  Thursday night, MCHS won the sectional over conference rival Marist on a half-court (more like a step-back-NBA-three-distance, but who am I to spoil a great story) at the buzzer by Millender:
http://seasonpass.suntimes.com/news_article/show/230409?referrer_id=650026

Video is worth a watch.  Ransom is set to inbound, but switches out for Walsh at last second.  How often do you see that?
http://www.highschoolcube.com/highlight/oh-my-marian-catholic-s-aston--55053
This is why people love sports.  "Oh my" is right!

Video from other side of court with cool replays:  http://www.marianchs.com/athletics/womens-basketball/womens-basketball.php

(Aliyah is #23) At 30-1, they advance to Monday's Illinois Wesleyan Supersectional vs. Peoria Richwoods.

Unfortunately Isaac did not merit all-conference selection.  The ESCC credits her with 40 points, but surely that is merely the 9-game conference season.  She did not make a 3-pointer.  Isaac, however, keys the defense for a school that gave up 38 points a game over a grueling conference slate (while averaging 65 themselves).
http://www.eastsuburbancc.com/html/documents/wbkbscoring_001.pdf


SCOUTING:  MWRR, from the Montini Fall League wrap-up, 2011 (prior to her junior season):

Extremely athletic small forward is a high intensity player with an explosive first step allowing her to get easy shots in the lane. Displayed great fundamentals on the defensive end, with the lateral quickness to stifle opposing guards and the strength to body up with post players. Should work on releasing her shot at the peak of her jump and finishing through contact in the lane.

http://www.midwestrecruitingreport.com/news/article/54/Montini-Fall-League-Top-Prospect-1023.php
She was named one of 7 top performers on the day (MCHS the only school with 2).

UPSHOT:  This is a good pickup--playing where she does, she's not underscouted, and she's proven herself against tough competition for several years.  While she may never be an outside threat, or even a scoring force, she will be one of those girls who does whatever is needed on the floor without concern for glamour.  Offense wins beauty contests--defense wins championships.  Let's hope she can challenge for a rotation spot by her sophomore year and maybe even start as an upperclasswoman?  (feel free to shock us with earlier arrival dates, btw)

One of the problems about message boards, even one as cozy as our own, is that good material is quickly tamped down by the volume of new material coming out on top of them, and then we lose good, thoughtful posts, buried like Troy VIIA (if you immediately get that reference, I need to buy you a beer when I'm in Valpo next).

So I thought, after commenting for the second time about "post of the year!", how about a list of "nominees" for posts that really made a difference--that were well-written and worth remembering so as to come back to them?  Analytical or funny, verbose or concise, but let's make this the "Hall of Fame" rather than the "Hall of Really Pretty Good".

Only "rule" is that self-nomination is out, like liking your own status on Facebook.  Anybody and everybody are welcome to nominate--make sure to link to the post, though, and explain why you picked it.  (Don't immediately nominate, because it might take a day or two to make sure it "stands the test of time", but don't wait too long, like I did with the first post either, because then it's well nigh impossible to find!:)

Drudge linked to an article this week from the guy who pulls links for The Browser (of the Financial Times) who said something to the effect that 'only 1% of the writing on the internet is worth reading.  but that 1% is an embarrassment of riches'.

This article, by the extremely talented Wright Thompson, about Michael Jordan at 50, is in the top tenth of that 1 percent, even if you are a Pistons fan (like myself) and despised him growing up.

It's that good.

http://espn.go.com/espn/story/_/page/Michael-Jordan/michael-jordan-not-left-building

(Now if you'll excuse me I'm going to go worry about Mahorn or Laimbeer coming to get me for this.)

I don't know what translation the Lutherans use, but I bet the joke still works.

happy Lent, brothers