The Valparaiso Beacons Fan Zone Forum

This is how the official standings look after the first weekend of play.
(http://s30.postimg.org/xx961ayld/Screen_shot_2014_01_05_at_1_07_05_PM.png)

But it's not really accurate.  At least, it's not as accurate as would be helpful.  For instance, you would assume from looking at this that Green Bay is first in the conference and Milwaukee third.

But they're not.  Not really.  Hear me out:  Winning at home is simply something that should be done, right?  Holding serve.  And when you can steal one on the road, you've REALLY done something.  Everyone knows these basic postulates.

However, the standings, as constructed, don't bear this reality out, for a couple reasons:
--With 9 teams, there will be games-in-hand, the importance of which every hockey fan knows;
--though the league tries to balance home and away as best they can, there will be slight imbalances that will only be fully rectified by the final standings.  Some teams will play more on the road first, and some more at home.

As we saw with the HL non-con standings, home-court is a better advantage if you're a better team.  For instance, it didn't do a whole lot for UIC in the non-con, as we saw.  And Wright St still has yet to lose at home, although it might help if they played a team with more than four people on their roster.  (And they have yet to win on the road, by the way.)  But it's still important.

These standings give one point for winning on the road, and subtract one for losing at home.  That is why CSU is in first place--because not only did they win on the road, they've still got all 8 home games left, as you can see.  And while Green Bay is technically in first place, they still have all 8 road games left.  But so does Milwaukee--and they've already lost at home.  Therefore, even though the "official" standings have them third--because of why?  Non-conference wins?  How do they help you win the HL?  Oh, that's right, they don't.

Here's where the league really stands after the first batch of games.  Sorted by the road "points" system, then by overall wins, then by games played (the fewer the better because more chances to win).

Below the standings, you see the conference game by game results.  Reading across finds you the result of the game for the home team (in the rows) versus the away team (in the columns).

I'll keep this updated throughout the year, if you find it useful.
(http://s11.postimg.org/tjafnec4j/Seed_Cast.jpg)

Apostle, you missed your true calling.  Not sure what that is but I think is may be as our new defensive coordinator analyzing what a player scratching a certain area prior to certain plays indicates.  Kind of like Money Ball.  Valpo needs you!  Lot's of folks can play the organ/guitar/piano/ banjo etc, and do it with grace and spirituality.  Few can put colors and numbers into charts like you!!   :thewave:

Brad Stevens has Drew Cannon as his numbers guru. I think Apostle could do the same for another team/program.

Pretty colors

I really like the +/- system presented by LAA ... it's something I've looked at for several years.  It is especially useful for the Horizon this year where the teams appear very balanced and home court advantage is often (so far, at least) a big impact on outcomes.  Well done.

Quote from: vu72 on January 05, 2014, 02:28:34 PMApostle, you missed your true calling.

:)  My wife might disagree!

Quote from: chef on January 05, 2014, 03:21:16 PMI think Apostle could do the same for another team/program.

Well, only for Valpo.  I couldn't use my powers for evil.
(Hey, chef [& STL & zvillehaze], I saw Jeff Furlin yesterday.  He was down on vacation with his saintly mother and daughter Gia!)

Quote from: HC on January 05, 2014, 04:03:07 PMPretty colors

You know, it does make everything better.  It looks like I put more thought into it, doesn't it?

Quote from: EddieCabot on January 05, 2014, 06:38:25 PMWell done.

Thank you.  Means a lot. If you've been thinking of this for a while, I'm sure you have ideas to improve, if you care to share.

Thanks all of you for the nice feedback.  This is my second-proudest day on the board!

Quote from: EddieCabot on January 05, 2014, 06:38:25 PMIt is especially useful for the Horizon this year where the teams appear very balanced and home court advantage is often (so far, at least) a big impact on outcomes.

Yeah, great point!  That is what prompted me to do it this year, because, with all apologies to UWGB, it does look wide open.

Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on January 05, 2014, 08:01:03 PM

Quote from: EddieCabot on January 05, 2014, 06:38:25 PMIt is especially useful for the Horizon this year where the teams appear very balanced and home court advantage is often (so far, at least) a big impact on outcomes.

Yeah, great point!  That is what prompted me to do it this year, because, with all apologies to UWGB, it does look wide open.

Agreed.  It points out that even though UWGB is 2-0 and YSU is 0-2, there's not much separation because neither team has either a.) lost at home, or b.) won on the road, so no blood has been drawn.

What your tie-breaker ranking does is recognize that if YSU plays their next two games at home and UWGB plays their next two on the road, UWGB is in a better position because YSU has to win both to remain at 0 points (and could fall to -1 or -2 with losses), while UWGB could remain at 0 by losing both (and could go to +1 or +2 with wins). 

As for suggestions, I dug through your tie-breaking approach and think it makes sense.  Logically, I arrived there by a slightly different path, but we got to the same place.  Kudos for taking the time to lay this out in such detail ... I think this will be useful as the season progresses. 

Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on January 05, 2014, 01:43:54 PMTherefore, even though the "official" standings have them third--because of why?  Non-conference wins?  How do they help you win the HL?  Oh, that's right, they don't.

IMO, this statement may or may not be true depending upon the strength of overall conference parity in any given year since RPI can potentially be used as a tournament seeding tie-breaker.

See:  http://www.horizonleague.org/blog/horizon-league-mens-basketball-tournament-scenarios-tie-breakers?page=8&sport_id=2 (http://www.horizonleague.org/blog/horizon-league-mens-basketball-tournament-scenarios-tie-breakers?page=8&sport_id=2)

Well, true and good--I thought about that, but it's not necessarily true in that it's RPI, not non-con wins, per se.

I mean, look at Oakland (3 D1 non-con wins against 10 losses; RPI 149) vs. Wright State (twice as many wins; RPI almost twice Oakland's). 

Extreme example to be sure, and winning of course affects (not effects) RPI.  But as we've seen, "wins" and "RPI" have a facebook relationship set to "complicated".

Speaking of RPI, look at the Summit at #13 now!  I never thought that I would see the day when the HL was only 1 spot higher than the Summit.  If they keep that up, the SL may pass the HL next year while adding ORU (if they don't lose anyone).

http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html (http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html)

Well, it never fails to amaze me there can be disparate results when theoretically everyone is using the same formula, but the official RPI (used as tiebreaker in the HL for example, as alluded to above) says we're 13, they 14.

(It appears the interloper there is the American Athletic Conference, which isn't even included in the "Real time rpi" list...)

RPIForecast has the Summit at 18 (and us at 14) by season's end.

Quote from: valpotx on January 06, 2014, 05:56:07 PM
Speaking of RPI, look at the Summit at #13 now!  I never thought that I would see the day when the HL was only 1 spot higher than the Summit.  If they keep that up, the SL may pass the HL next year while adding ORU (if they don't lose anyone).

http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html (http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html)

Lol North Dakota State is 21 RPI and UNO is 70. That's a clear case of RPI not passing the smell test. RPI Forecast has the two leagues at 13 and 14 with, of course, a more accurate expected RPI from UND and UNO.

Interesting game in Ohio tonight.  With 9:03 left, Hain scored.  No one else for YSU would score--except for Kendrick Perry, of course, who got the last 12 YSU points, including 5 in the last 38 seconds to turn a 66-62 loss into a 67-66 win (traditional 3 point play FTW).

Wow.  On the strength of which, I give you week 2:
(http://s28.postimg.org/i6ay813j1/Seed_Cast.jpg)
The main difference from the actual standings this week is that Milwaukee is overrated there on the strength of their home losses.

Added a "points per game" to balance out teams that have played different amounts of games.  blah blah etc.

(http://s22.postimg.org/ojkc16a35/Seed_Cast.jpg)
Obviously, WSU lucked into a weakened CSU team at precisely the right time.

VU @ YSU will do a lot to sort out contender/pretender status...

This may surprise some people...maybe most.

(http://s22.postimg.org/iti3aq5qp/Seed_Cast.jpg)

Valparaiso is in 2nd place on the strength of their road win this week.  The fact that they looked bad in Cleveland--have you considered that everyone looks bad in Cleveland?  (In general, not in basketball.  That's why people take their talents to Florida, LBJ and everyone's grandparents included).

So, if Valpo in 2nd bothers you, consider this:  if they lose to UWGBPHX on Wed, then they'll fall out of 2nd on my chart (because number of games played).

But if/when they WIN then they'll also be in 2nd place on the actual standings as well (pending whatever other people are doing between now and then.)

Unfortunately, even though we reach the halfway point this week, we begin the second half before all teams have completed the first half, so it's really hard to tell.

I added a rank, last week's rank, and put the dates of this week's upcoming games in there, because that's helpful, I think.

So here's an interesting look:

(http://s14.postimg.org/425cvf6hd/Seed_Cast.jpg)

You'll notice two games not counted yet.

Because with the YSU @ Oakland game tonight, we can look at EXACTLY the moment when all the teams hit the halfway point, and compare apples to apples.

Milwaukee will think they're better than this, because the real standings say so, but they're not.  They are among the league's "Weak Five".
(http://s13.postimg.org/k52o3rmfr/Seed_Cast.jpg)
Reason:  they only have 2 home games left, one of which is against Valpo.  On the flip side, they have four games on the road, so if they're actually among the league's best they will have the chance to prove it.

On the flip side of that, they have to go to WSU, YSU, and GB. So good luck with that.

"All" that has to happen for Valpo to win:  win out, and have GB lose on the road to CSU.    24% possible, I say.

RPIForecast says 0.43% though :)  Almost 11% that GB wins out; 0.91 that VU does.

But wouldn't that make up for 2012's end? :)

Game of the WEEK:   CSU @ WSU.  Winner moves up in great position; loser pretty much NO BYE FOR YOU.

ALSO DEAR GOD MAKE THE BAD MAN STOP HITTING ME GAME OF THE WEAK: UIC @ GB.  RPIF says UIC has a 5% chance; lose by 18.

STOP THE PRESSES: CHANGE AT THE TOP
(http://s28.postimg.org/5wnsn637x/Seed_Cast.jpg)

This won't make UWGB fans happy--or Harry Potter fans--but there's been a change in THE ORDER OF THE PHOENIX.*

Of course, the actual standings won't reflect that.  Not yet. We'll see next Saturday, because whoever wins will be hosting the tournament.

But based on their 5 road wins, and GB's stunning loss to rival UWM, Cleveland State is your new leader.

And if you think that is far-fetched, well the other part of the standings bear me out.  CSU only has to go on the road once more, and GB only gets one more home game.  (Curiously, each one is against Valpo...)

So, yeah, whoever wins GB @ CSU ... wins.  (Is there such a thing as a double-KO-loss?  because that would suit Valpo pretty well.)

Other thoughts--Can you imagine if UWM HADN'T dropped 3 home games already?

Detroit is officially out of the basement--and can keep Oakland there--this Friday.

How is Wright State like, done with their schedule already?



*Dumbledore is straight.  You're welcome.

shouldn't wvu be ahead of you? Each has 2 road games left, but wsu has already pocketed 2 extra home wins.

I like this concept, tho. Fun feature.

Quote from: Pathfinder on February 10, 2014, 01:17:04 PMshouldn't wvu be ahead of you?

they are ahead of us, because they're in the Big 12 ;)

Seriously, it's sorted first for points per game played, then by fewest losses, then by fewest games (because more opportunities for wins).  Like hockey's "game-in-hand".  Assuming you meant WSU, they can't do better than 10-6, while we can be 12-4.  So it's first based on performance, and then on potential.

Thanks for the feedback!!  It means a lot, especially from a Detroit fan I've probably cheesed off at some point :)

well, that was over quicker than a Bobby Petrino bike ride.

GB in the driver's seat.  and for the first time, my standings and the real ones are identical.  but that was bound to happen--decreasing disparity (or despairity if you're a Flame) and finally UNION.
(http://www.asymptotejournal.com/images/graph.gif)
but i'm still going to call it More Accurate^TM because that's my thing now.  if you don't like it you can kiss my asymptote.
(http://s14.postimg.org/nkifi2ri9/Seed_Cast.jpg)
For the first time, a projection of the tournament bracket.  Can't decide how to break the UDM YSU tie, but it's largely irrelevant.

Interesante, no?

(http://s18.postimg.org/tdx18i0jt/Seed_Cast.jpg)
So Detroit had a good week.  4-way logjam in the HL's eyes.  Though DET is higher in my standings, that's offset by their having the 2nd hardest last 2 games (to Valpo's, of course).  This is the "Toughness" column, figured by taking the opponent's rank, and subtracting one for road games and adding one for home.  Low score wins.  Well, "wins".

The 3-way currently breaks down as depicted in lower RH corner.  In a 4-way logjam, it would be (at this point)
5) Milwaukee (3-2, beat GB)
6) Oakland (3-2)
7) Det (2-3, beat Valpo)
8) YSU

Of these, Milwaukee has the best card (beat GB) and the easiest road.  But Detroit, as hard as they have it, are coming on strong and have both games at home, something no other HL team can say.

That's about it.

Just so everybody knows, the pretty colors are coming back for a new season.

But, since Cleveland State was the only team to pick up a road win--and that against UIC--I'm going to wait until next week when there will be more development.

A major problem this year (as far as predicting) is that last year the schedule was symmetrical--everyone played everyone else once, and then the second half of the season was as the first, just at the other team's place.

For whatever reason, this year is not.  Which might make this more useful, and it might not.

We'll see!  Enjoy being at the top, Cleve.  Other people will get to go to UIC too, you know...

Well, here we go.  But don't get mad at me.  (At least not for this!)

(http://s11.postimg.org/g7g8c901v/Screen_Shot_2015_01_12_at_8_10_57_PM.png)

This is reflecting the fact that our 3 home wins don't earn us any points in this system--we were only holding serve, as it were.  Plus we've played 4 games, while the other teams with 0 road wins have only played 3, and could do better given their game-in-hand.  What you could take me to task on is that the first sort is by PPG, obviously, but the second GP.  You might make the argument that it should go by 'most road games remaining', since that is the way to earn points.  But since home losses are the only way to LOSE points, I feel that distinction is balanced out.  Anyway, here it is!   We've got plenty of opportunities to score points in the next couple weeks.  It does worry me some that we have the fewest home games remaining at this point, but we're better than most of the rest of the league, home or away.

I leave you with the fun round-robin result thus far.

(http://s2.postimg.org/b35f57cwp/Screen_Shot_2015_01_12_at_8_11_05_PM.png)

I really REALLY like these! Great job.

Thanks!  I forgot that one thing I did add last year is an indication of which games were happening during the following week, so here's an update (already doing things wrong...what is this, a stat thread? : )

(http://s23.postimg.org/y9s67sq0r/Screen_Shot_2015_01_12_at_9_21_52_PM.png)

Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on January 12, 2015, 08:23:38 PMThanks!  I forgot that one thing I did add last year is an indication of which games were happening during the following week, so here's an update (already doing things wrong...what is this, a stat thread? : )

Good thing it's not the Over-Under thread or historyman would have to check each game to make sure it was correct.  ;)

EDIT: wait a minute, wait a minute......I already found a mistake.............look closely at the dates and you'll see it. hint:when is Valentine's Day?

wow.  that's...just...wow.

Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on January 12, 2015, 07:17:54 PM
Well, here we go.  But don't get mad at me.  (At least not for this!)

RAWR ANGER! UNABLE TO FIND PROPER DIRECTION TO EXPRESS ANGER!

But seriously, nice job. I love the pretty colors.

(http://s27.postimg.org/qeuva4bdv/Screen_Shot_2015_01_18_at_7_41_12_PM.png)

Yeah, CSU is first, but nobody else already got to play YSU and UIC on the road either.  That'll even out...

tsk, tsk

I don't believe Valpo was in 6th position "last week" and moved up to tied for 2nd. Valpo only played one game and beat WSU. Which would mean Valpo passed up WSU, Detroit, Oakland and tied Green Bay by winning one game. You are saying Valpo was 3-1 and in 6th place. Am I missing something?

Yes you are...in LAA's system you only get credit for road victories and lose credit for home losses. Valpo was holding serve until that win at WSU.

also we're not tied with GB.  Yet.

*cough*an update would be nice*cough* ;)

Of the 29 Horizon League games, the home team has won 20 of them. The fact that we have 2 of the 9 league road wins is great. CSU has 3 of those wins and Green Bay has 2 of them. I'm not sure if that's a good sign that we have a strong upper tier or that we don't have a good spread of talent. Either way it's good that we have 22% of the road wins!

(http://s21.postimg.org/roynp4orr/Screen_Shot_2015_01_26_at_6_13_00_PM.png)

(http://s29.postimg.org/7s7e0gilj/Screen_Shot_2015_02_01_at_2_50_34_PM.png)

As always, these standings and the real standings begin to track one another more closely until the end when they're identical.

Notice CSU and we have earned our 3 road points over the same victims...we're really, really tied.

Also note that instead of 3 tiers of teams, as it appeared a week or two ago--the Good (us, UWGB, CSU), the Bad (Oak, UDM, WSU), and the Ugly (UWM, UIC, YSU), we now have just Good (us, UWGB, CSU, & Oak) and Not Really Very Good At All (UDM, WSU, UWM, UIC, YSU).

Ok, well prove it?  The only loss by a Good team to a NRVGAA team is Oak @ UDM.

...of course now that I've said that someone will try to prove me wrong, but you won't.

GB up 12 at the Nutter at the Half...

Yep, I put 20% of my paycheck this month on GB -6.  Easy money.  Vegas was off on this one...

(http://s24.postimg.org/fuyft811h/Screen_Shot_2015_02_08_at_5_53_40_PM.png)
another exciting week of basketball.  at this point the actual standings will be more useful than these because GB is #1 due to one fewer game, etc.  But for the first time I give you the If The Season Ended Today Tournament Bracket, based on the standings at the HL website...although the tiebreaker appears to be "season record".  So, yeah, I'll take it.

(http://s16.postimg.org/4v8gnqgp1/Screen_Shot_2015_02_08_at_5_53_47_PM.png)

Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on February 08, 2015, 05:01:21 PM
(http://s24.postimg.org/fuyft811h/Screen_Shot_2015_02_08_at_5_53_40_PM.png)
another exciting week of basketball.  at this point the actual standings will be more useful than these because GB is #1 due to one fewer game, etc.  But for the first time I give you the If The Season Ended Today Tournament Bracket, based on the standings at the HL website...although the tiebreaker appears to be "season record".  So, yeah, I'll take it.

(http://s16.postimg.org/4v8gnqgp1/Screen_Shot_2015_02_08_at_5_53_47_PM.png)

Still way to early.  We have to beat Green Bay at home and Detroit on the road.  I know, I know, Detroit just lost to UIC, but Juwan Howard Jr. and company are dangerous, especially on the road.  We have done what we are supposed to, beat everyone at home. 

Then there's that little game at CSU that could very well be a winner take all.

Oh, I agree, but look at the compelling bracket that sets up--another UDM-OAK game, another OAK-VU game, just going by seeds...

and that little game starts at 9pm central, 10pm eastern.... might be a lot of (yawn) fun...

I don't want Oakland again.  We always get their best game, that's dangerous

I didn't see the defending champs, UWM in the bracket?

They've been given the banhammer for this postseason...don't get the grades, don't get to play  :thumbsup:

(http://s12.postimg.org/te6n273lp/Screen_Shot_2015_02_08_at_8_38_37_PM.png)

forgot to flog UDM sufficiently for losing to UIC at home.

Gosh, the gap between the haves and have-nots has rarely been so clear.  What I mentioned last week still applies--the only win the bad teams have over the good is UDM vs. Oakland...

Quote from: oklahomamick on February 08, 2015, 06:37:03 PMI didn't see the defending champs, UWM in the bracket?

Do you sit back and laugh your head off after you post these questions?


They seem like innocent questions but this is your third "you-don't-know-but-you-should-know" question?

Quote from: historyman on February 08, 2015, 09:05:43 PM

Quote from: oklahomamick on February 08, 2015, 06:37:03 PMI didn't see the defending champs, UWM in the bracket?

Do you sit back and laugh your head off after you post these questions?


They seem like innocent questions but this is your third "you-don't-know-but-you-should-know" question?

;D  I was being sarcastic, it was a joke.  What were the other two questions, "I should have known?"

I miss UWM. Their fans would get really upset if you referred to them as a commuter school.

Quote from: oklahomamick on February 08, 2015, 09:21:12 PM

Quote from: historyman on February 08, 2015, 09:05:43 PM

Quote from: oklahomamick on February 08, 2015, 06:37:03 PMI didn't see the defending champs, UWM in the bracket?

Do you sit back and laugh your head off after you post these questions?

They seem like innocent questions but this is your third "you-don't-know-but-you-should-know" question?

;D  I was being sarcastic, it was a joke.  What were the other two questions, "I should have known?"

I remember a question about why Adekoya wasn't playing against some opponent and since the party on Lind Lane situation had been discussed forever it seemed very obvious. There was another one but I can't seem to remember it.

I honestly missed that one.  I think those discussions were on the non basketball tab and I missed it.  I remember seeing things from alumni's Facebook who still live in valpo in regards to the bust but that was it. 


The uwm was a joke.  Should have put the smilie face on.....


The not understanding kempe red shirting more than most coaches is a honest question.   

Quote from: HC on February 08, 2015, 05:22:18 PM
Then there's that little game at CSU that could very well be a winner take all.

we may be getting a little ahead of ourselves, but this could be a very accurate prediction.

(http://s24.postimg.org/j9sabuu5x/Screen_Shot_2015_02_15_at_9_16_13_PM.png)

GB still on top, because they have a game in hand. I know...I think this system is more accurate at the beginning of a season but less so as you go on, and then finally they're identical.  But if we win the games we're supposed to, then it won't matter coming up.

Only change in the prospective bracket is that now UIC would host WSU.  Yes, that's how far WSU has fallen, that now UIC will host a first-round playoff game.

Our win at WSU looks a lot less impressive when FOUR OTHER TEAMS IN CONFERENCE have it too (and counting).

(http://s21.postimg.org/5v1vu8frr/Screen_Shot_2015_02_15_at_9_16_24_PM.png)

(http://s30.postimg.org/mtcurw175/Screen_Shot_2015_02_22_at_10_50_24_PM.png)

well the win at UWM looks to be pretty impressive now.

here's the bracket--I would rather see Oakland in the 4 spot, but that'll be decided this week...

(http://s11.postimg.org/yfnq1yyoj/Screen_Shot_2015_02_22_at_10_52_37_PM.png)

OK... 8 games left in the HL regular season... PICK THE WINNERS

2/25    Valpo @ Detroit                                 valpo
2/25    Youngstown State @ Oakland            oakland

2/26   Milwaukee @ Wright State                  wright
2/26   Green Bay @ UIC                               GB

2/27   Valpo @ Cleveland State                    valpo

2/28:  Oakland @ Green Bay                        GB (but only because it's senior night)
2/28:  Wright State @ UIC                           wright
2/28:  Milwaukee @ Youngstown State        milwaukee (last game of the year)

Valpo @ Detroit  --- Valpo
Youngstown St @ Oakland --- Oakland

Milwaukee @ Wright St --- Milwaukee
Green Bay @ UIC --- Green Bay

Valpo @ Cleveland St --- Valpo

Oakland @ Green Bay --- Green Bay
Wright St @ UIC --- UIC
Milwaukee @ Youngstown St --- Milwaukee

Quote from: talksalot on February 23, 2015, 08:21:33 AM
OK... 8 games left in the HL regular season... PICK THE WINNERS

2/25    Valpo @ Detroit                                 valpo
2/25    Youngstown State @ Oakland            oakland

2/26   Milwaukee @ Wright State                  wright
2/26   Green Bay @ UIC                               GB

2/27   Valpo @ Cleveland State                    valpo

2/28:  Oakland @ Green Bay                        GB (but only because it's senior night)
2/28:  Wright State @ UIC                           wright
2/28:  Milwaukee @ Youngstown State        milwaukee (last game of the year)

I think this should be a new thread, but here's mine.

2/25    Valpo @ Detroit
2/25    Youngstown State @ Oakland

2/26   Milwaukee @ Wright State
2/26   Green Bay @ UIC

2/27   Valpo @ Cleveland State

2/28:  Oakland @ Green Bay
2/28:  Wright State @ UIC
2/28:  Milwaukee @ Youngstown State

and there is a new "Predictions" thread... can someone move these two posts?   don't know how to do that...

Quote from: talksalot on February 23, 2015, 09:14:05 AMand there is a new "Predictions" thread... can someone move these two posts?   don't know how to do that...

It is reassuring to know that I am not the only dummy on this board.

I had someone take this picture of me because I couldn't figure out how to take a selfie.

(https://clarkbunch.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/crash-testing-dummies.jpg?w=640)

another year in the books:

(http://s4.postimg.org/m8odoqx7x/Screen_Shot_2015_02_28_at_9_59_32_PM.png)

and, speaking of "week finis", how about YSU, everybody?  rimshot.mp3

also, how sad would it be to be a YSU or WSU season ticket holder?  one win the last 2 months.  they even had the gall to beat each other while on the road. that's...that's something.

(http://s22.postimg.org/dwml5w01t/Screen_Shot_2015_02_28_at_10_00_47_PM.png)

everyone who had "UIC hosting a playoff game this decade" in the pool, now's your chance to collect...what?  oh.  well it rolls over to next year then.

For the people that were bragging on Loyola being 10-2 to start the season, and the 'right choice' for the MVC, they finished 7-10 in conference, and 17-12 overall.  Valpo was obviously the better option ;)

I wished it would have happened....I know Wichita st. and N. Iowa are a league above us but I'm sure we could find a way to beat them from time to time as we did butler in their hay day.  The rest of mvc we could edge out.

Isn't there suppose to be news about additions to the HL shortly after March madness?  Wish the news was valpo leaving for mvc not that n. Kentucky was joining the HL. 

Since LAA is gone I'll take over this since it's always fun to look at.

(http://s12.postimg.org/ym74pae9p/Capture1.png)

(http://s12.postimg.org/delh1op19/Capture2.png)

Should Milwaukee be +1 instead of -1? 2 home losses, 3 road wins? Perhaps I misunderstand the system.

Standings get a little funny when teams like Oakland don't believe in home court advantage.

Quote from: hailcrusaders on February 01, 2016, 03:14:16 PMStandings get a little funny when teams like Oakland don't believe in home court advantage.

Happily Valpo's also no great respecter of home-court advantage this season.

Quote from: hailcrusaders on February 01, 2016, 03:14:16 PM
Should Milwaukee be +1 instead of -1? 2 home losses, 3 road wins? Perhaps I misunderstand the system.

Yep. I screwed up the math in my head on that one. It's fixed in the post.

Week 6 Standings

Week 7 Standings

Don't look now, but Green Bay is setting themselves up for run on a double bye. They finished their road schedule this weekend and while they currently have 6 losses only one of those have come at the Resch. The problem for this version of the standings, they can't gain anymore points, only lose points. On the other side of the ledger, Detroit has finished their home schedule, so they can move up the alternate standings easily with wins, that said the 5-4 record on the Dickie V court doesn't bode well for a good final 4 games.

Congrats to UIC and Northern Kentucky. They went a whole week without gaining or losing a point.

UIC has the longest current win streak....let that soak in for a minute

I remain optimistic, but this whole thing could unravel for us.  Oakland is thumping Wright State tonight and I don't see Oakland losing again in the regular season unless we beat them Friday night.  If we don't, then we would have to sweep our road trip at Milw and GB in order to hold remain alone at the top --assuming we take care of Cleveland St tomorrow night and Detroit on Senior Day.  If we lose to Oakland and then lose one of those other four games, we would likely wind up in a tie for the title.  That is bad since Oakland would get the #1 seed since they own the tiebreaker -- they beat Wright St twice and we didn't.

That means Wright St would probably get the #3 seed, and to win the league tournament we would have to beat WSU and Oakland on consecutive nights -- and the way we've been playing, that is not a bet that I would jump at.

Paul

Quote from: historyman on February 02, 2016, 04:08:38 PMI could see UIC with Odiase and Dixson making a nice run at the end of the season and in the tournament as the Flames did with Harris last year. Please knock out Oakland and Detroit in that order.  ;)

Quote from: HC on February 15, 2016, 05:02:40 PM
UIC has the longest current win streak....let that soak in for a minute

I think someone here pretty much said this would happen.

I'm glad winning the second half against us kick started their run. Good thing we had that 20 point lead in the first half.

Week 7.5 Standings

Figured with every team playing games in the first half of the week we needed a half week update. That and there was some shifting in the middle of the pack. Oakland, with the win vs. WSU jumps up to the 3rd spot.

Kind of hard to believe in a stretch of 3 games against UIC, Valpo and Oakland (at home) the only game that Wright State won was at Valpo. It shows how truly unique the road and home records have been for HL teams this year.  The only team with a perfect record is Oakland ON the ROAD.

Week 8 Standings

Yeah, we'll get a 8.5 on Friday since we've got 4 games in the middle of the week. Oakland and Green Bay swapped places in the different look with a W in UIC.

As we close the season, Oakland, Green Bay and Milwaukee can no long gain points with all their games remaining at home. Valpo, Wright State, Detroit, Northern Kentucky and UIC can't lose points with their games all remaining on the road. Hey, look at that you've got travel partners (GB/Mil, Valpo/UIC, WSU/NKU) all in the same category and travel partners in the opposite categories (Detroit and Oakland) since said travel partners play each other to end the season.

so... here's my guess at the tournament seedings with some assumptions on the final league record

#1  Valpo   16  2
#2  Oakla   13  5  with a win at the ORena Friday night against Detroit
#3  Wright  13  5  loses tie breaker with Oakland, Grizzlies were 2-0 against the Raiders
#4  GreenB 11  7 One win and one loss this weekend
#5  Milwke  10  8 One win and one loss this weekend
#6  Detroit   9  9  One loss this weekend
#7  NorKy   7  11 Two wins this weekend on the road in NE Ohio
#8 YoungSt 5  13 Two losses this weekend
#9  UIC       3  15 Two losses this weekend
#10 Cleve   3  15 Two losses this weekend, loses tiebreak to UIC.  They beat each other, both split with NorKy.  UIC's win over Wright is better than Cleve's win over Youngstown

so the Saturday matchups at Historic JLA - Eastern Times

Game 1:    #4 Green Bay vs #9 UIC - Noon Saturday  March 5
Game 2:    #5 Milwaukee vs #8 Youngstown State - 2:30pm Saturday March 5
                           Winners play each other at 1PM on Sunday March 6

Game 3:   #3 Wright State vs #10 Cleveland State - 5PM Saturday March 5
Game 4:   #6 Detroit Vs #7 Northern Kentucky - 7:30pm Saturday March 5
                            Winners play each other at 3:30PM on Sunday March 6


IF DETROIT BEATS OAKLAND... things change quite a bit...
#1  Valpo    16  2
#2  Wright   13  5  with two wins in NE Ohio this weekend
#3  Oaklan  12  6 
#4  GreenB 11  7 One win and one loss this weekend
#5  Detroit  10  8 One win this weekend, wins tie break over UWM because of a win against Wright
#6  Milwau  10  8  One loss and one win this weekend
#7  NorKy   7  11 Two wins this weekend on the road in NE Ohio
#8 YoungSt 5  13 Two losses this weekend
#9  UIC       3  15 Two losses this weekend
#10 Cleve   3  15 Two losses this weekend, loses tiebreak to UIC.  They beat each other, both split with NorKy.  UIC's win over Wright is better than Cleve's win over Youngstown

Quote from: talksalot on February 23, 2016, 08:30:37 AMIF DETROIT BEATS OAKLAND... things change quite a bit...
#1  Valpo    16  2
#2  Wright   13  5  with two wins in NE Ohio this weekend
#3  Oaklan  12  6 
#4  GreenB 11  7 One win and one loss this weekend
#5  Detroit  10  8 One win this weekend, wins tie break over UWM because of a win against Wright
#6  Milwau  10  8  One loss and one win this weekend
#7  NorKy   7  11 Two wins this weekend on the road in NE Ohio
#8 YoungSt 5  13 Two losses this weekend
#9  UIC       3  15 Two losses this weekend
#10 Cleve   3  15 Two losses this weekend, loses tiebreak to UIC.  They beat each other, both split with NorKy.  UIC's win over Wright is better than Cleve's win over Youngstown

I have a feeling that Detroit would like nothing better than to knock Oakland out of the double bye and give them the same home turf advantage that Oakland would have in the HL tourney. Go Titans!

I'm guessing Olympia Entertainment would like nothing better!   

and with the games last night... the bottom of my bracket projections fall apart on my predictions...

#7  NorKy   6  12
#8 YoungSt 5  13

Both teams are 5-12 right now, and will play each other on Saturday at Beeghly.  Winner gets the 7 loser gets the 8

#9  UIC       3  15  finishes at Green Bay and at Milwaukee
#10 Cleve   4  14 CSU's win over NorKy, put them in the driver's seat for the 9 seed, they finish up Saturday with Wright State.

So these two will flip in the final standings.... probably.

I believe that NKU isn't eligible to play in the conference tourney, correct?

Quote from: valpotx on February 28, 2016, 12:29:39 AM
I believe that NKU isn't eligible to play in the conference tourney, correct?

Nope. NKU will be in the HL tourney. If they won the tourney however, they would be ineligible for the NCAA tournament and the runner up in the HL would be the NCAA representative. This is just like Southern-Texas Southern in the SWAC last year I believe. There is official proof somewhere but I cannot find the article anymore.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk

Sometimes, the Horizon League web site just gets things wrong.


Two more seeds were clinched during Saturday's action in Horizon League men's basketball. Youngstown State clinched the number seven seed with its win over Northern Kentucky. The Norse secured the eight seed.Cleveland State and UIC are the only remaining teams in the Horizon League that do not know their seed heading into the final day of regular season play. UIC will be the nine seed for Motor City Madness with a win at Green Bay, but if the Flames fall to Phoenix, Cleveland State will be the nine seed and UIC will be the 10 seed.


Swap out "Milwaukee" for "Green Bay" ... and "Panthers" for "Phoenix" and it's now correct.

Game 1:    #4 Green Bay vs #9 ________________ - Noon Saturday  March 5  (Probably Cleveland St)
Game 2:    #5 Milwaukee vs #8 Northern Kentucky - 2:30pm Saturday March 5
                           Winners play each other at 1PM on Sunday March 6

Game 3:   #3 Wright State vs #10 ____________ - 5PM Saturday March 5  (probably UIC)
Game 4:   #6 Detroit Vs #7 Youngstown State - 7:30pm Saturday March 5
                            Winners play each other at 3:30PM on Sunday March 6

In the Regular Season:

Green Bay Swept Cleveland State
Milwaukee Split with Northern Kentucky
Wright State Split with UIC
Detroit Swept Youngstown State

Quote from: HailVU2014 on February 28, 2016, 01:04:27 AMNKU will be in the HL tourney. If they won the tourney however, they would be ineligible for the NCAA tournament and the runner up in the HL would be the NCAA representative. This is just like Southern-Texas Southern in the SWAC last year I believe. There is official proof somewhere but I cannot find the article anymore.

I found this article from the original announcement last spring...

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/2015/05/11/northern-kentucky-university-officially-joins-horizon-league/27111971/ (http://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/2015/05/11/northern-kentucky-university-officially-joins-horizon-league/27111971/)

Northern Kentucky University has unanimously approved its membership in the Horizon League and will begin participation July 1.

Two days after The Enquirer revealed the university's impending vote to change leagues, NKU's Board of Regents approved the move in a special meeting Monday at the Student Union and closed the chapter on a three-year affiliation with the Atlantic Sun Conference.

As coaches and media members looked on, Norse officials ratified membership in the Midwestern-centric Horizon League with Cleveland State, Detroit Mercy, Illinois at Chicago, Oakland (Mich.), Valparaiso, Wisconsin-Green Bay, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Wright State and Youngstown State.

"We'd officially like to welcome you to the Horizon League," commissioner Jon LeCrone said in an ensuing press conference.


The Norse compete in 17 of the Horizon League's 19 sports. Athletic director Ken Bothof said the conference is a perfect fit for NKU in terms of the student-athlete experience, alumni engagement, potential for rivalries, opportunities to generate ticket revenue and exposure for sponsors in the media market.

Bothof said NKU will save an estimated $255,000 annually in travel with the league change. Those savings will allow the university to meet the Horizon League's $1.15 million entry fee in four years. Details of the Norse's Atlantic Sun exit fees have not yet been determined.

Last week the league announced a partnership with Olympia Entertainment to host the men's basketball tournament in Detroit for the next five years.

NKU's reclassification to Division I will be complete in 2016-17 when it is eligible to compete in NCAA tournaments. Norse teams will compete in full Horizon League schedules next school year.



"This is an institution on the rise, and our horizon has never been brighter," Mearns said.

Why would the conference allow an ineligible team to compete for the conference tourney?  I know that they are eligible in all other sports, but think that M/W basketball has to wait one more year.  It looks bad for the conference if they were somehow to get hot, and then your tourney winner can't play in the NCAA tourney!

      VALPO HORIZON LEAGUE RECORDS
      Home Record     Road Record      Overall Record

             H-Ws   H-Ls    R-Ws R-Ls   Total-Ws Ls
2015-16   8      1          8       1          16    2
2014-15   8      0          5       3          13   3
2013-14   5      3           4       4          9    7
2012-13   6      2           7       1         13    3
2011-12   8      1           6       3          14    4
2010-11   7      2           5       4          12    6
2009-10   6      3           4       5          10    8
2008-09   4      5           1       8          5    13
2007-08   5      4           4       5          9    9

So, we were known as the 'Monsters of the Mid-Con.'  What should we call ourselves now that we own the Horizon League?  Should we be the 'Heroes of the Horizon?'  It's amazing to think that we have won 13 regular season titles in the last 21 seasons.

Quote from: valpotx on February 28, 2016, 11:07:33 PMSo, we were known as the 'Monsters of the Mid-Con.'  What should we call ourselves now that we own the Horizon League?  Should we be the 'Heroes of the Horizon?'  It's amazing to think that we have won 13 regular season titles in the last 21 seasons.

Yes, and we have been in the HL for 9 years and won 4 of them.  We are ready for the next step.

HL records set by Valpo this year. - Scoring margin, +14.7 - Rebounding average, 43.6 - Rebounding margin, +13.0

Final Standings

As we finish the season we see the "different look" matches up with the real life standings. That's always exciting and this is again a fun exercise.