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Football Season Predictions

Started by usc4valpo, August 28, 2016, 12:28:32 PM

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usc4valpo

OK, it is time to predict the outcome for football. Let the progostics begin!!

I predict 3-8

Wins against Trinity Intl., Davidson, Butler

vu84v2

2-10, and that assumes that they are not completely decimated after their first two games against bigger and stronger opponents.

usc4valpo

vu84v2 - they only have 11 games. would you say 2-9?

VU2624

Quote from: vu84v2 on August 28, 2016, 01:20:58 PM2-10, and that assumes that they are not completely decimated after their first two games against bigger and stronger opponents.

Hate to break it to anyone but there's already some potentially serious issues in this area.

bbtds

I think they're just as likely to go 0-11 as 3-8 or 4-7. I hope for 3-8 or 4-7 but I wouldn't put any money on it. It's hard to be a Valpo football fan.

bbtds

Quote from: VU2624 on August 28, 2016, 04:13:33 PM
Quote from: vu84v2 on August 28, 2016, 01:20:58 PM2-10, and that assumes that they are not completely decimated after their first two games against bigger and stronger opponents.

Hate to break it to anyone but there's already some potentially serious issues in this area.

What exactly are you talking about? Have the injuries from practice already affected the quarterback situation?

usc4valpo

For non-scholarship football, I am expecting this futility will finally end. Valpo was 1-9 last year - I expect we get out of the cellar of the Sagarin ratings. If not, we have a huge systematic problem we need to address.

VU2624

#7
Quote from: bbtds on August 28, 2016, 08:10:48 PM
Quote from: VU2624 on August 28, 2016, 04:13:33 PM
Quote from: vu84v2 on August 28, 2016, 01:20:58 PM2-10, and that assumes that they are not completely decimated after their first two games against bigger and stronger opponents.
Hate to break it to anyone but there's already some potentially serious issues in this area.
What exactly are you talking about? Have the injuries from practice already affected the quarterback situation?

Not QB but there were a bunch of guys standing around on the sidelines without pads who would normally be playing as of late last week.

covufan

With the past several years, it has become difficult to be a VU Football optimist.  As usc4valpo noted above, we need to have turned some corner this year, or the problem may be systemic.

I'm going with 4-7.  Wins against Trinity, Davidson, @ Stetson, and Butler. 

The offense has not shown as much improvement as I would have expected with Cecchini's background, at least in points per game.  The defense needs to show a similar improvement as from the '13 to the '14 season. 

bbtds

#9
Quote from: covufan on August 29, 2016, 11:25:54 AM
With the past several years, it has become difficult to be a VU Football optimist.  As usc4valpo noted above, we need to have turned some corner this year, or the problem may be systemic.

I'm going with 4-7.  Wins against Trinity, Davidson, @ Stetson, and Butler. 

The offense has not shown as much improvement as I would have expected with Cecchini's background, at least in points per game.  The defense needs to show a similar improvement as from the '13 to the '14 season. 

And the presidential race will be a very civil contest between two typical candidates in the near future. Please!! Why so optimistic when you can see for yourself that huge improvements must be made just to get to 4-7?


Quote from: VU2624 on August 29, 2016, 09:57:44 AMNot QB but there were a bunch of guys standing around on the sidelines without pads who would normally be playing as of late last week.

Does the above statement sound like VU2624 is talking about a 4-7 team?

VU2624

If everything goes right, beating Stetson and Butler will be difficult.

FWalum

Quote from: VU2624 on August 29, 2016, 08:02:20 PM
If everything goes right, beating Stetson and Butler will be difficult.
This seems like a rather odd statement. Should it be more like... Even if everything goes right, beating Stetson and Butler will still be difficult. or If everything goes right, beating Stetson and Butler will be difficult, but doable. I don't know that I have ever heard a coach or fan say "If everything goes right :dance: we still don't have much of a chance :whiteflag:". 

Makes it seem like things are really bad, is that the way you see it?
My current favorite podcast: The Glenn Loury Show https://bloggingheads.tv/programs/glenn-show

GOVALPO!

 Well we are definitely starting the season shorthanded  receiver Frank catrine  Is out with a knee injury and two starting linebackers are suspended one maybe for multiple games so hopefully  some younger guys can step up and we can keep the injuries to a minimum the first two weeks

VU2624

Quote from: GOVALPO! on August 30, 2016, 09:57:15 AMWell we are definitely starting the season shorthanded  receiver Frank catrine  Is out with a knee injury and two starting linebackers are suspended one maybe for multiple games so hopefully  some younger guys can step up and we can keep the injuries to a minimum the first two weeks

Bunch of injuries to the WR group when I was there. Hopefully the suspensions are for minor issues.

VU2624

Quote from: FWalum on August 30, 2016, 08:43:16 AM
Quote from: VU2624 on August 29, 2016, 08:02:20 PMIf everything goes right, beating Stetson and Butler will be difficult.
This seems like a rather odd statement. Should it be more like... Even if everything goes right, beating Stetson and Butler will still be difficult. or If everything goes right, beating Stetson and Butler will be difficult, but doable. I don't know that I have ever heard a coach or fan say "If everything goes right :dance: we still don't have much of a chance :whiteflag:". Makes it seem like things are really bad, is that the way you see it?

At full strength, this team will have a tough time beating Stetson and Butler. I'm not sure how much more plain I can be. I'm not a coach of this team and, in general, tend to step back and make as honest assessment of the situatio whether that qualifies as good, bad or otherwise

vu72

Quote from: VU2624 on August 30, 2016, 10:14:47 AM
Quote from: FWalum on August 30, 2016, 08:43:16 AM
Quote from: VU2624 on August 29, 2016, 08:02:20 PMIf everything goes right, beating Stetson and Butler will be difficult.
This seems like a rather odd statement. Should it be more like... Even if everything goes right, beating Stetson and Butler will still be difficult. or If everything goes right, beating Stetson and Butler will be difficult, but doable. I don't know that I have ever heard a coach or fan say "If everything goes right :dance: we still don't have much of a chance :whiteflag:". Makes it seem like things are really bad, is that the way you see it?

At full strength, this team will have a tough time beating Stetson and Butler. I'm not sure how much more plain I can be. I'm not a coach of this team and, in general, tend to step back and make as honest assessment of the situatio whether that qualifies as good, bad or otherwise

I'm not a coach either.  Just wondering, after stepping back, on what basis do you think winning or losing a game will be difficult or impossible?  Every team in the PFL faces the same non-scholarship issues of kids quiting or tranfering.  Are you evaluating based on past performance alone?  Just curious.   :crazy:
Season Results: CBI/CIT: 2008, 2011, 2014  NIT: 2003,2012, 2016(Championship Game) 2017   NCAA: 1962,1966,1967,1969,1973,1996,1997,1998 (Sweet Sixteen),1999, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2013 and 2015

Vinny

As long as the transfer rate stays the same and the team is heavily relying on freshmen to fill some important roles, it'll be difficult to turn things around.

I hope I'm wrong, but nothing about this team tells me it should be anything better than 2-9.

vu72

Quote from: Vinny on August 30, 2016, 12:53:49 PM
As long as the transfer rate stays the same and the team is heavily relying on freshmen to fill some important roles, it'll be difficult to turn things around.

I hope I'm wrong, but nothing about this team tells me it should be anything better than 2-9.

You sound like you are much closer to the program then most of us.  I counted 45 upperclassmen and 15 red-shirt freshman.  That's 60 kids with experience with the system.  Granted I only counted 6 seniors.  I'm assuming you feel key players left the program and that freshman, although talented, can't replace them.  Is this a fair assessment of your opinion?
Season Results: CBI/CIT: 2008, 2011, 2014  NIT: 2003,2012, 2016(Championship Game) 2017   NCAA: 1962,1966,1967,1969,1973,1996,1997,1998 (Sweet Sixteen),1999, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2013 and 2015

VU2624

Quote from: vu72 on August 30, 2016, 10:27:09 AM
Quote from: VU2624 on August 30, 2016, 10:14:47 AM
Quote from: FWalum on August 30, 2016, 08:43:16 AM
Quote from: VU2624 on August 29, 2016, 08:02:20 PMIf everything goes right, beating Stetson and Butler will be difficult.
This seems like a rather odd statement. Should it be more like... Even if everything goes right, beating Stetson and Butler will still be difficult. or If everything goes right, beating Stetson and Butler will be difficult, but doable. I don't know that I have ever heard a coach or fan say "If everything goes right :dance: we still don't have much of a chance :whiteflag:". Makes it seem like things are really bad, is that the way you see it?
At full strength, this team will have a tough time beating Stetson and Butler. I'm not sure how much more plain I can be. I'm not a coach of this team and, in general, tend to step back and make as honest assessment of the situatio whether that qualifies as good, bad or otherwise
I'm not a coach either.  Just wondering, after stepping back, on what basis do you think winning or losing a game will be difficult or impossible?  Every team in the PFL faces the same non-scholarship issues of kids quiting or tranfering.  Are you evaluating based on past performance alone?  Just curious.   :crazy:

Defensively, the team lost a few of their better players and I'm not sure the depth will there to make up for it. Offensively, they struggled last year and I'm not sure the improvements have been made which will allow them to do any better. Factoring in the opponents, I think it will be difficult to win those two games.

If you have a different opinion that's fine however I'd like to hear why you'd think things will be better other than blind optimism.

vu72

#19
Quote from: VU2624 on August 30, 2016, 02:27:08 PM
Quote from: vu72 on August 30, 2016, 10:27:09 AM
Quote from: VU2624 on August 30, 2016, 10:14:47 AM
Quote from: FWalum on August 30, 2016, 08:43:16 AM
Quote from: VU2624 on August 29, 2016, 08:02:20 PMIf everything goes right, beating Stetson and Butler will be difficult.
This seems like a rather odd statement. Should it be more like... Even if everything goes right, beating Stetson and Butler will still be difficult. or If everything goes right, beating Stetson and Butler will be difficult, but doable. I don't know that I have ever heard a coach or fan say "If everything goes right :dance: we still don't have much of a chance :whiteflag:". Makes it seem like things are really bad, is that the way you see it?
At full strength, this team will have a tough time beating Stetson and Butler. I'm not sure how much more plain I can be. I'm not a coach of this team and, in general, tend to step back and make as honest assessment of the situatio whether that qualifies as good, bad or otherwise
I'm not a coach either.  Just wondering, after stepping back, on what basis do you think winning or losing a game will be difficult or impossible?  Every team in the PFL faces the same non-scholarship issues of kids quiting or tranfering.  Are you evaluating based on past performance alone?  Just curious.   :crazy:

Defensively, the team lost a few of their better players and I'm not sure the depth will there to make up for it. Offensively, they struggled last year and I'm not sure the improvements have been made which will allow them to do any better. Factoring in the opponents, I think it will be difficult to win those two games.

If you have a different opinion that's fine however I'd like to hear why you'd think things will be better other than blind optimism.

Blind optimism?  Me??  I do think we will be better than last year and look for a minimum of three wins and more likely four.  Why?  First let's look back on what happened last year.  We started out young and after the first couple of games got a lot younger via injuries. At one point we were starting seven true freshman.  Those freshman are now game tested sophomores--still young, but bigger and stronger than last year.  We won't wear down quit so quickly and, we have much better depth on both sides of the ball. The wearing down was very evident in that in the San Diego, Dayton, Butler and Morehead games we were within a touchdown or less at half time and our kids just didn't have the size or experience to fight it out for the entire game.  Next we have Ryan Clark who was thrown into action last year, not playing at all in the first two games, and now has a full year and  lots of game experience under his belt going into his junior year.  Clark stayed around all summer to hit the weights and work and learn in the film room.

On the defensive side of the ball your are correct in that we lost two very key guys.  We do however return the entire backfield and have added much depth the may help replace some of the losses we had due to graduation.
Season Results: CBI/CIT: 2008, 2011, 2014  NIT: 2003,2012, 2016(Championship Game) 2017   NCAA: 1962,1966,1967,1969,1973,1996,1997,1998 (Sweet Sixteen),1999, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2013 and 2015

VU6957

A agree with the 3-8 this year while they will be competitive in most PFL games.  Next year they are 5-6 or 6-5 and year after compete for a PFL championship.  Coaching staff has only completed their 2nd full recruiting class.  The turnover rate for their first full class was good and I expect same for future.  As the younger kids mature and return they will get bigger and better each year.  If they have not arrived by year after next then you can through in the towel and talk doom and gloom for perennial losing program.

Vinny

I'm not any more in tune to the program than most on here (I would assume). Was around much more during the Macchi years- early to mid 2000s. I try and make it to one if not two games a year. Attended the Stetson game at home last season, was at Butler three years ago for the game we wish we could all forget. But I follow the team closely and listen to the radio broadcast as often as I can.

My comment about the transfers had to do with quality as much as quantity. Looking at the defectors from this past season, many were touted by the coaching staff to be big-time playmakers - McPherson, Choudrey and Underwood. Yes, that's going to happen at the non-scholarship D-1/D-3 football level, but it seems to hit Valpo more than any other PFL program.

I think Cecchini is right when he says "yes, we're a year older, but we're not three years older." Last year, the PFL seemed to be divided into three levels: 1) San Diego, Dayton, Jacksonville, Morehead State 2) Butler, Drake, Campbell, Marist 3) Stetson, Valpo, Davidson.

I don't believe we've gotten better enough to make the leap into the second category this year.
 

VU2624

Legend left, at least in part, because he was significantly injured. I think he tore his ACL. He wouldn't have recovered in time to play this season. I'm not sure that's really a defection. In all honesty, they have a lot more back than I expected or has been in the past.

vu72

It will be a very tall task against Illinois State.  Currently ranked in the top 10 FCS, they played for the championship against NDSU in 2014.  I'm thinking a 35 point loss, 42-7.
Season Results: CBI/CIT: 2008, 2011, 2014  NIT: 2003,2012, 2016(Championship Game) 2017   NCAA: 1962,1966,1967,1969,1973,1996,1997,1998 (Sweet Sixteen),1999, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2013 and 2015

VUOR63

I hope we pound the rock instead of trying to implement a glitzy no huddle/fast break offense that leads to lopsided scores.  I don't even know who the running backs are but it's not rocket science--get north and south and take 38 seconds between plays.  The key to success this year is keeping the defense off the field.

I remember losing to USD a couple years ago on a hail mary.  I think Coach C is astute enough to figure out ways to stay in games.