Now what? How does this team continue to improve?

[justducky]

With our turnover numbers in decline this team is just now starting to perform at the level I was expecting to see a month ago, but from here how do they get better? The seniors are now playing like seniors except for Boggs who might have been turf-toed  into obscurity. Does anyone have some idea about his condition because a healthy Ben should be playing more minutes than Coleman even if Matt has driven him from his starting position?

At this point in the season team improvement would seem to be as equally important as securing home court advantage and would argue against the safe strategy of playing our starters 28+ minutes per game. With all their flaws I still like what I see from Capo, Coleman, Dority and Fernandez but they need more time on the floor. They need to not hesitate when wide open. We can play things safe until HLT time and maybe only lose 2 more games or maybe we can reshuffle the deck a bit and keep the Horizon League guessing at the risk of maybe losing 4 or 5. I hate falling into a predictable stagnant pattern of play even when it is working. How do we get better?

No guts no glory! Playing it safe might get us to the NCAA but I want to get there and win. Is a drop from a 13 to an at worst 15 seed that important? What do you folks think? Is the risk worth the reward?

[agibson]

s a drop from a 13 to an at worst 15 seed that important?

15 seeds are 6-113 overall.
13 seeds are 29-111 overall.

It matters.

[a3uge]

s a drop from a 13 to an at worst 15 seed that important?

15 seeds are 6-113 overall.
13 seeds are 29-111 overall.

It matters.

It could be the difference between playing Syracuse or Butler/Gonzaga. Think about it.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

To jump on the dogpile:

In the 4-13 split, the 13 wins 21.4% of the time (24-88)

In the 2-15 split, the 15 wins 5.4% of the time (6-106)

We're 4 times better off as a 13.

Here's your chance in your game based on your seed (historically). 
Past performance is no guarantee of future results

12 seed:  31.1%, or 50% better than a
13 seed:  21.4%, or 50% better than a
14 seed: 14.3%, or 265% better than a
15 seed:  5.4%, or INFINITELY BETTER THAN a
16 seed:  0

[FWalum]

They need to not hesitate when wide open.

This has been one of the things that I noticed since the beginning of the season. Chef and I talked about it when I was up for the IPFW game. During the first half of the Detroit game the color announcer kept talking about how hesitant our shooters looked, especially that Matt Kenney looked unprepared to shoot, even fumbling around with the ball when he had open looks. This seems to have improved as the team continues to gain confidence from the two comeback victories.  Confidence reduces turnovers and improves shooting percentages.  I also like the fact that we are playing a much better inside out game than we were earlier in the season. Ball movement and looking into the post has really improved.


Ditto to what agibson, a3uge and LaPorteAveApostle said about the 13 vs 15 seed.

[valpo84]

1. Intensity. We still have huge minutes where it looks like they are bored. Last 5 mins of games we have been strong. Need to turn in a 40 minute performance.

2. Defense. With intensity can be better defense. We need to start doing better at switches. When to switch and not leave mismatches with bigs v Buggs. Put teams away earlier. That also gets more minutes for bench. Vashii needs more defensive minutes as he provides an interesting shot alterer and 5 more fouls.

3. Coleman and Dority need to shoot better. Coleman looked better v GB, but Dority's shot is off.

4. Find ways to get Ryan easy buckets early to help loosen his shot. Last 2 games it took til 2d half. If he gets a layup, he seems to shoot from 3 easier. Run Carolina backdoor alley-oop early in the game or other back doors. Seeemed like we ran more O sets like that last year. Experiment there rest of the way.

5. Last 5 minutes of 1st half need to be improved. Last year, we were very efficient last 5 of 1st half. This year we seem to let other teams dictate especially last 2 mins. See points 1 and 2.

[vu72]

s a drop from a 13 to an at worst 15 seed that important?

15 seeds are 6-113 overall.
13 seeds are 29-111 overall.

It matters.

Matters? Are you kidding? A 15 plays a 2. A 2, by definition and rankings means a top 8 team.  Everyone ranked in the top 20 is in automatically.  Now a 13 matches up against a 4, which means a top 20 team.  If we get there we might be a 12 depending on other conferences and upsets. So right now, according to the Sagarin's, the Horizon is ranked 12th out of 31 auto bid leagues.  If that holds true (we are very close to 11th), there would be 19 or 20 conferences ranked lower. Just considering that we would be an 11.  Unfortunately several conferences ranked lower than the Horizon have conference leading teams ranked higher than Valpo, but not much. Presently there are 12 conference leaders ranked lower than Valpo, so if that held, we could get a 13.  If there are upsets in the conference tourneys, right now, say, Akron doesn't win the MAC or Belmont doesn't win the OVC, or Bucknell doesn't win the Patriot, or SF Austin doesn't win the Southland, then their replacments would be ranked lower than us.  If all those upsets happened then we would move up to a 12, maybe an 11.  It's doubtful but possible but I'm thinking a 13 at this point--IF, we win the darn thing!

It could be the difference between playing Syracuse or Butler/Gonzaga. Think about it.