Illinois State at Valpo Game Thread, Sat., Feb.1st, 7:00p CT, ESPN3

[justducky]

Coach L is doing a great job in utilizing his bench strength and promoting cohesive team play.   Fun to watch!   We are due to surprise somebody any day now.

Well yeah, I would think that  but all the MVC analytics and backward reflecting rankings show us to be an also ran (Just Sayin has us for only 1 more victory) so who are we to argue? Obviously getting a pre season MVC second team all conference player back along with the other banged up starters healthy isn't going to help us at all. I mean we were bad, so we are bad, so we will continue to be bad. What part of that airtight logic do you not understand?   

For any of you who may need the above translated---------I think we are about ready to hit our stride and get hot.

[NativeCheesehead]

And this is what i love about sports. While there will always be debate, the results are the results. Your record is your record.

For all of us (most of this board) who have staked a position in the Great Lottich Debate, we're about to find  out who's right. The rest of this season may be the most important stretch of Valpo B-ball since the NIT run.

[Just Sayin]

Coach L is doing a great job in utilizing his bench strength and promoting cohesive team play.   Fun to watch!   We are due to surprise somebody any day now.

Well yeah, I would think that  but all the MVC analytics and backward reflecting rankings show us to be an also ran (Just Sayin has us for only 1 more victory) so who are we to argue? Obviously getting a pre season MVC second team all conference player back along with the other banged up starters healthy isn't going to help us at all. I mean we were bad, so we are bad, so we will continue to be bad. What part of that airtight logic do you not understand?    For any of you who may need the above translated---------I think we are about ready to hit our stride and get hot.

Your hope is merely wishful speculation. Nothing wrong with that. Gotta have hope that the team will be successful.  My prediction is based on facts. Yes those facts represent what occurred in the past. But they have shown over and over what this team has actually done, how they have performed on a consistent (or inconsistent) basis and the picture of this team which has developed is that they aren't one of the top teams in the MVC. They can be expected to perform roughly in the same way that they have actually performed during the past 23 games. Can that change? Of course, but probably not significantly. It's highly unlikely given their actual record of performance to date. Does Fazekas change the dynamics of this team? Yes, most likely in a positive way. Do they seem to be coming together in ways they have not shown in previous games? Yes, but most teams get better as the season progresses. However, even with the addition of an impact player like Fazekas,  you can't turn the entire ship around on a dime and this team is what the team has proved itself to be. They have proved on the court game after game that they are a solid 7th place team in the MVC at this time. I just don't see how that will change barring some miracle. But heck, we can dream. I'd love to see them go 9-0, make the dance and win a game or two. But really? This year, this team? Ain't gonna happen. Maybe next year or the year after.

[vu72]

Coach L is doing a great job in utilizing his bench strength and promoting cohesive team play.   Fun to watch!   We are due to surprise somebody any day now.

Well yeah, I would think that  but all the MVC analytics and backward reflecting rankings show us to be an also ran (Just Sayin has us for only 1 more victory) so who are we to argue? Obviously getting a pre season MVC second team all conference player back along with the other banged up starters healthy isn't going to help us at all. I mean we were bad, so we are bad, so we will continue to be bad. What part of that airtight logic do you not understand?    For any of you who may need the above translated---------I think we are about ready to hit our stride and get hot.

[/b]

Your hope is merely wishful speculation. Nothing wrong with that. Gotta have hope that the team will be successful.  My prediction is based on facts. Yes those facts represent what occurred in the past. But they have shown over and over what this team has actually done, how they have performed on a consistent (or inconsistent) basis and the picture of this team which has developed is that they aren't one of the top teams in the MVC. They can be expected to perform roughly in the same way that they have actually performed during the past 23 games. Can that change? Of course, but probably not significantly. It's highly unlikely given their actual record of performance to date. Does Fazekas change the dynamics of this team? Yes, mostly likely in a positive way. Do they seem to be coming together in ways they have not shown in previous games? Yes, but most teams get better as the season progresses. However, even with the addition of an impact player like Fazekas,  you can't turn the entire ship around on a dime and this team is what the team has proved itself to be. They have proved on the court game after game that they are a solid 7th place team in the MVC at this time. I just don't see how that will change barring some miracle. But heck, we can dream. I'd love to see them go 9-0, make the dance and win a game or two. But really? This year, this team? Ain't gonna happen. Maybe next year or the year after.

Wel we are about to find out. We FINALLY are at full strength.  We have a LOAD of potential--think about losing to Loyola at 3 WITHOUT Ryan or beating a very good Toledo team with Clay, Gordon and Krikke providing a combined 2 points!  Tomorrow will tell us pretty much everything regarding our chances for a top 6 season.  I'm convinced that if JFL can get his shot back and we see solid defense and continued contributions across the team, that we CAN avoid Thursday and win a couple of games.

[FWalum]

Coach L is doing a great job in utilizing his bench strength and promoting cohesive team play.   Fun to watch!   We are due to surprise somebody any day now.

Well yeah, I would think that  but all the MVC analytics and backward reflecting rankings show us to be an also ran (Just Sayin has us for only 1 more victory) so who are we to argue? Obviously getting a pre season MVC second team all conference player back along with the other banged up starters healthy isn't going to help us at all. I mean we were bad, so we are bad, so we will continue to be bad. What part of that airtight logic do you not understand?    For any of you who may need the above translated---------I think we are about ready to hit our stride and get hot.

Your hope is merely wishful speculation. Nothing wrong with that. Gotta have hope that the team will be successful.  My prediction is based on facts. Yes those facts represent what occurred in the past. But they have shown over and over what this team has actually done, how they have performed on a consistent (or inconsistent) basis and the picture of this team which has developed is that they aren't one of the top teams in the MVC. They can be expected to perform roughly in the same way that they have actually performed during the past 23 games. Can that change? Of course, but probably not significantly. It's highly unlikely given their actual record of performance to date. Does Fazekas change the dynamics of this team? Yes, most likely in a positive way. Do they seem to be coming together in ways they have not shown in previous games? Yes, but most teams get better as the season progresses. However, even with the addition of an impact player like Fazekas,  you can't turn the entire ship around on a dime and this team is what the team has proved itself to be. They have proved on the court game after game that they are a solid 7th place team in the MVC at this time. I just don't see how that will change barring some miracle. But heck, we can dream. I'd love to see them go 9-0, make the dance and win a game or two. But really? This year, this team? Ain't gonna happen. Maybe next year or the year after.

Are you talking about Valpo or Bradley... With the exception of "winning a game or two" in the dance, isn't that exactly what Bradley did last year? So when Valpo started out 5-1 last year you would have said that they were an upper level MVC team based on actual performance? I agree that it is unlikely that we will end up in the top 4 of conference, but anything is still possible. If the team that played Arkansas (even without Ryan) shows up to play the remainder of our games then who knows were we finish. Maybe we are this year's Bradley. 

[justducky]

For all of us (most of this board) who have staked a position in the Great Lottich Debate, we're about to find  out who's right. The rest of this season may be the most important stretch of Valpo B-ball since the NIT run.

Yup! No more excuses. The Lottich engine has been totally rebuilt and needs tested in the straightaway. How powerful and reliable this 10 cylinder model proves is anybodies guess.

Your hope is merely wishful speculation.

Quickly changing the subject, I'm guessing that you may be watching the huge stock market gyrations as closely as I am. If you would be so kind please let me know what you are selling (so that I can buy), and what you are buying (so that I can sell). Please hurry! Time is of the essence.

I'm convinced that if JFL can get his shot back and we see solid defense and continued contributions across the team, that we CAN avoid Thursday and win a couple of games.

If we get and stay fully healthy and are still a Thursday team then I would certainly consider showing Matt the door. I might even consider throwing him against it. 

[VUGrad1314]

There's an argument to be made that Fazekas turns a lot of these losses we've suffered into wins. I think with a healthy Fazekas we would be in a very different position right now. Patience guys. We're close. Very close. We may not see it this year, we may end up in seventh place. But if we can stay together and avoid the transfer bug, I have a hard time not seeing us as a factor in the MVC race from the jump next year. At large contender? That might be a bit much to say. Top 4 or 5 team with potential to be much more? You bet. We're getting there. It took Loyola like a solid 4-5 years to get where they needed to go. We're in year 3 and making great progress. I know this isn't an apples to apples comparison because we don't have Wichita State to beat the crap out of us and hand us two losses like Loyola did when they were building but have a look at this:

2013-2014 Loyola: 10-22 4-14 10th place MVC Beat Bradley in St Louis MVC RPI Rank: 11
2017-2018 Valpo: 15-17 6-12 10th Place MVC Winless in St Louis MVC RPI Rank: 8

2014-2015 Loyola: 24-13 8-10 6th Place MVC WON CBI Beat Indiana St in St Louis MVC RPI Rank: 9
2018-2019 Valpo: 15-18 7-11 9th Place MVC Beat Indiana St in St Louis MVC NET Rank: 14 (Remember this was the Me-first Year and started 5-1 we could have and should have been much better than this)

2015-2016 Loyola: 15-17 7-11 8th place MVC Beat Bradley in St Louis MVC RPI Rank: 13
2019-2020 Valpo: 12-11 5-5 Result TBD MVC NET Rank: 11

2016-2017 Loyola 18-14 8-10 5th place MVC Winless in St Louis MVC RPI Rank: 12
2020-2021 Valpo: TBD MVC NET Rank: 11

2017-2018 Loyola: 32-5 15-3 1st Place MVC WON ARCH MADNESS MADE FINAL 4 MVC RPI Rank: 8
2021-2022 Valpo: TBD

Conclusions: It took until year 5 for Loyola to crack the .500 mark in conference. We have a chance to do it in year 3 and arguably should have done it in year 2. It's hard to glean much from the standings because Wichita State was so dominant but I still say our numbers compare quite favorably when you look at overall results. League strength has fluctuated wildly for the MVC so it's hard to say who had the stronger MVC to contend with. My point is that we're not that far off the trajectory our predecessor set in their first five years. I'm not saying we're going to make a final 4 anytime soon but if we can get invited maybe a postseason tournament wouldn't be a bad idea. I think it would be a good step for the growth of the program We should go on the road though. Our problem is winning on the road. We should focus on getting better at that if we do decide on postseason play assuming it is an option for us. My point in doing all of this is that we're not that far off and next year should be much better.

[VUGrad1314]

Coach L is doing a great job in utilizing his bench strength and promoting cohesive team play.   Fun to watch!   We are due to surprise somebody any day now.

Well yeah, I would think that  but all the MVC analytics and backward reflecting rankings show us to be an also ran (Just Sayin has us for only 1 more victory) so who are we to argue? Obviously getting a pre season MVC second team all conference player back along with the other banged up starters healthy isn't going to help us at all. I mean we were bad, so we are bad, so we will continue to be bad. What part of that airtight logic do you not understand?    For any of you who may need the above translated---------I think we are about ready to hit our stride and get hot.

Your hope is merely wishful speculation. Nothing wrong with that. Gotta have hope that the team will be successful.  My prediction is based on facts. Yes those facts represent what occurred in the past. But they have shown over and over what this team has actually done, how they have performed on a consistent (or inconsistent) basis and the picture of this team which has developed is that they aren't one of the top teams in the MVC. They can be expected to perform roughly in the same way that they have actually performed during the past 23 games. Can that change? Of course, but probably not significantly. It's highly unlikely given their actual record of performance to date. Does Fazekas change the dynamics of this team? Yes, most likely in a positive way. Do they seem to be coming together in ways they have not shown in previous games? Yes, but most teams get better as the season progresses. However, even with the addition of an impact player like Fazekas,  you can't turn the entire ship around on a dime and this team is what the team has proved itself to be. They have proved on the court game after game that they are a solid 7th place team in the MVC at this time. I just don't see how that will change barring some miracle. But heck, we can dream. I'd love to see them go 9-0, make the dance and win a game or two. But really? This year, this team? Ain't gonna happen. Maybe next year or the year after.

Are you talking about Valpo or Bradley... With the exception of "winning a game or two" in the dance, isn't that exactly what Bradley did last year? So when Valpo started out 5-1 last year you would have said that they were an upper level MVC team based on actual performance? I agree that it is unlikely that we will end up in the top 4 of conference, but anything is still possible. If the team that played Arkansas (even without Ryan) shows up to play the remainder of our games then who knows were we finish. Maybe we are this year's Bradley. 

As long as UNI gets in too in that scenario so that we have a shot at tournament credits I'd be very happy with that scenario. In my previous post I advocated for postseason play for Valpo this year in any form we can get it as a means of learning to win on the road.

For all of us (most of this board) who have staked a position in the Great Lottich Debate, we're about to find  out who's right. The rest of this season may be the most important stretch of Valpo B-ball since the NIT run.

Yup! No more excuses. The Lottich engine has been totally rebuilt and needs tested in the straightaway. How powerful and reliable this 10 cylinder model proves is anybodies guess.

I'm convinced that if JFL can get his shot back and we see solid defense and continued contributions across the team, that we CAN avoid Thursday and win a couple of games.

If we get and stay fully healthy and are still a Thursday team then I would certainly consider showing Matt the door. I might even consider throwing him against it. 

I've softened considerably on my hard line fire Lottich stance. I think he's fine even if we end up a PIG team at this point. This team is growing and I'm afraid to lose what the next few years could be because this year didn't turn out as well as we had hoped. With everything we faced this past offseason the fact that we're even discussing being a 3rd 4th 5th 6th place team in this conference is pretty remarkable. Weren't we picked 9th anyway?

[Just Sayin]

Coach L is doing a great job in utilizing his bench strength and promoting cohesive team play.   Fun to watch!   We are due to surprise somebody any day now.

Well yeah, I would think that  but all the MVC analytics and backward reflecting rankings show us to be an also ran (Just Sayin has us for only 1 more victory) so who are we to argue? Obviously getting a pre season MVC second team all conference player back along with the other banged up starters healthy isn't going to help us at all. I mean we were bad, so we are bad, so we will continue to be bad. What part of that airtight logic do you not understand?    For any of you who may need the above translated---------I think we are about ready to hit our stride and get hot.

Your hope is merely wishful speculation. Nothing wrong with that. Gotta have hope that the team will be successful.  My prediction is based on facts. Yes those facts represent what occurred in the past. But they have shown over and over what this team has actually done, how they have performed on a consistent (or inconsistent) basis and the picture of this team which has developed is that they aren't one of the top teams in the MVC. They can be expected to perform roughly in the same way that they have actually performed during the past 23 games. Can that change? Of course, but probably not significantly. It's highly unlikely given their actual record of performance to date. Does Fazekas change the dynamics of this team? Yes, most likely in a positive way. Do they seem to be coming together in ways they have not shown in previous games? Yes, but most teams get better as the season progresses. However, even with the addition of an impact player like Fazekas,  you can't turn the entire ship around on a dime and this team is what the team has proved itself to be. They have proved on the court game after game that they are a solid 7th place team in the MVC at this time. I just don't see how that will change barring some miracle. But heck, we can dream. I'd love to see them go 9-0, make the dance and win a game or two. But really? This year, this team? Ain't gonna happen. Maybe next year or the year after.

Are you talking about Valpo or Bradley... With the exception of "winning a game or two" in the dance, isn't that exactly what Bradley did last year? So when Valpo started out 5-1 last year you would have said that they were an upper level MVC team based on actual performance? I agree that it is unlikely that we will end up in the top 4 of conference, but anything is still possible. If the team that played Arkansas (even without Ryan) shows up to play the remainder of our games then who knows were we finish. Maybe we are this year's Bradley. 

I would have said what the numbers showed. They may or may not have been one of the best teams after only five games. They might not have had better numbers relative to all other teams in the conference even with a winning record.  I typically disclaim the validity of early numbers. What would I have said about last year's team after 23 games?  That's enough time to say with confidence where a team stands.
I didn't do this analysis in prior years but it would have been interesting to see the numbers Bradley had the year they won.  It might not have been all that surprising. 

[4throwfan]

There's an argument to be made that Fazekas turns a lot of these losses we've suffered into wins. I think with a healthy Fazekas we would be in a very different position right now. Patience guys. We're close. Very close. We may not see it this year, we may end up in seventh place. But if we can stay together and avoid the transfer bug, I have a hard time not seeing us as a factor in the MVC race from the jump next year. At large contender? That might be a bit much to say. Top 4 or 5 team with potential to be much more? You bet. We're getting there. It took Loyola like a solid 4-5 years to get where they needed to go. We're in year 3 and making great progress. I know this isn't an apples to apples comparison because we don't have Wichita State to beat the crap out of us and hand us two losses like Loyola did when they were building but have a look at this:

2013-2014 Loyola: 10-22 4-14 10th place MVC Beat Bradley in St Louis MVC RPI Rank: 11
2017-2018 Valpo: 15-17 6-12 10th Place MVC Winless in St Louis MVC RPI Rank: 8

2014-2015 Loyola: 24-13 8-10 6th Place MVC WON CBI Beat Indiana St in St Louis MVC RPI Rank: 9
2018-2019 Valpo: 15-18 7-11 9th Place MVC Beat Indiana St in St Louis MVC NET Rank: 14 (Remember this was the Me-first Year and started 5-1 we could have and should have been much better than this)

2015-2016 Loyola: 15-17 7-11 8th place MVC Beat Bradley in St Louis MVC RPI Rank: 13
2019-2020 Valpo: 12-11 5-5 Result TBD MVC NET Rank: 11

2016-2017 Loyola 18-14 8-10 5th place MVC Winless in St Louis MVC RPI Rank: 12
2020-2021 Valpo: TBD MVC NET Rank: 11

2017-2018 Loyola: 32-5 15-3 1st Place MVC WON ARCH MADNESS MADE FINAL 4 MVC RPI Rank: 8
2021-2022 Valpo: TBD

Conclusions: It took until year 5 for Loyola to crack the .500 mark in conference. We have a chance to do it in year 3 and arguably should have done it in year 2. It's hard to glean much from the standings because Wichita State was so dominant but I still say our numbers compare quite favorably when you look at overall results. League strength has fluctuated wildly for the MVC so it's hard to say who had the stronger MVC to contend with. My point is that we're not that far off the trajectory our predecessor set in their first five years. I'm not saying we're going to make a final 4 anytime soon but if we can get invited maybe a postseason tournament wouldn't be a bad idea. I think it would be a good step for the growth of the program We should go on the road though. Our problem is winning on the road. We should focus on getting better at that if we do decide on postseason play assuming it is an option for us. My point in doing all of this is that we're not that far off and next year should be much better.

1314, I appreciate the post.  And the side-by-side comparison is interesting.  However, I'm uncomfortable with the comparison.  I don't like benchmarking other teams, even if the other team is a former VU team.

It seems that this team should strive for getting better, and being the best that they can be.  But, if we compare the team's yoy improvement to Loyola in the MVC, or even with Valpo when it joined the HL, then there is an opportunity for complacency if the benchmark is matched or exceeded.  I'd rather that the team set its own goals, and then engage a plan to meet THOSE goals. 

Besides, I frankly thank that Loyola's in-conference yoy improvement in the MVC is not that impressive.

[VUGrad1314]

You can make that argument for the first four years but what they've done since is pretty gosh darn great. Tell you what: This Valpo team's goal is at least a final four. Git 'er done guys! Is that better?  No really I get your point I'm just providing facts to urge patience with the program as a whole because I think we're getting to a point where we're about to compete and be pretty darn good. And to be fair my goal IS to see this team in a final four and I hope the team also views themselves that way.

[justducky]

Are you talking about Valpo or Bradley...  With the exception of "winning a game or two" in the dance, isn't that exactly what Bradley did last year? So when Valpo started out 5-1 last year you would have said that they were an upper level MVC team based on actual performance? I agree that it is unlikely that we will end up in the top 4 of conference, but anything is still possible. If the team that played Arkansas (even without Ryan) shows up to play the remainder of our games then who knows were we finish. Maybe we are this year's Bradley.  

To refresh my memory I looked up the  2018-2019 Braves record.Correct that they did start conference play at 0-5 while we went 5-1. A movement was actually growing to get Wardle his money. Things then changed when they went 9-4 down the stretch for a 9-9 finish and an ending NET (post tournaments) of 176 and RPI of 162. I forget the whole story but I think they were shorthanded early and it took some time for the team to gain traction. Hmmmm----Sound familiar?

[FWalum]

Are you talking about Valpo or Bradley... With the exception of "winning a game or two" in the dance, isn't that exactly what Bradley did last year? So when Valpo started out 5-1 last year you would have said that they were an upper level MVC team based on actual performance? I agree that it is unlikely that we will end up in the top 4 of conference, but anything is still possible. If the team that played Arkansas (even without Ryan) shows up to play the remainder of our games then who knows were we finish. Maybe we are this year's Bradley. 

I would have said what the numbers showed. They may or may not have been one of the best teams after only five games. They might not have had better numbers relative to all other teams in the conference even with a winning record.  I typically disclaim the validity of early numbers. What would I have said about last year's team after 23 games?  That's enough time to say with confidence where a team stands.
I didn't do this analysis in prior years but it would have been interesting to see the numbers Bradley had that year they won.  It might not have been all that surprising. 

Honestly, I was being a little sarcastic. My point was that this is not all that simple. I have said before that one little thing can change the fortunes of an entire season, things that coaches have little or no control over and other things that should be under their control. Alec Peters' stress fracture (not controllable), Joe Burton flunking out (much more controllable). I personally think there is little doubt that this team's record would be much better if Ryan had not broken and dislocated the wrist. Can that change?? Things will have to improve based on what I have seen in the last few games. We are still impatient and look for JFL to bail us out in many possessions. Numerous occasions when Ryan was wide open or being hugged by his man and we did not have the court awareness to see the advantages that were created by having Ryan on the floor. Lets all hope this improves tonight.

[Just Sayin]

Are you talking about Valpo or Bradley... With the exception of "winning a game or two" in the dance, isn't that exactly what Bradley did last year? So when Valpo started out 5-1 last year you would have said that they were an upper level MVC team based on actual performance? I agree that it is unlikely that we will end up in the top 4 of conference, but anything is still possible. If the team that played Arkansas (even without Ryan) shows up to play the remainder of our games then who knows were we finish. Maybe we are this year's Bradley. 

I would have said what the numbers showed. They may or may not have been one of the best teams after only five games. They might not have had better numbers relative to all other teams in the conference even with a winning record.  I typically disclaim the validity of early numbers. What would I have said about last year's team after 23 games?  That's enough time to say with confidence where a team stands.
I didn't do this analysis in prior years but it would have been interesting to see the numbers Bradley had that year they won.  It might not have been all that surprising. 

Honestly, I was being a little sarcastic. My point was that this is not all that simple. I have said before that one little thing can change the fortunes of an entire season, things that coaches have little or no control over and other things that should be under their control. Alec Peters' stress fracture (not controllable), Joe Burton flunking out (much more controllable). I personally think there is little doubt that this team's record would be much better if Ryan had not broken and dislocated the wrist. Can that change?? Things will have to improve based on what I have seen in the last few games. We are still impatient and look for JFL to bail us out in many possessions. Numerous occasions when Ryan was wide open or being hugged by his man and we did not have the court awareness to see the advantages that were created by having Ryan on the floor. Lets all hope this improves tonight.

A win tonight would certainly give this team a whole lotta confidence going forward.  The time is ripe for a major turnaround as others have noted us being at full strength.   We'll see. 

[justducky]

The time is ripe for a major turnaround as others have noted us being at full strength.

#1, (8-2) #2, (7-3) and #3 (7-3) are our immediate obstacles in descending order. Time for Lottich and the team to step up and make a statement. 

[VUBBFan]

https://twitter.com/ValpoBasketball/status/1224843125941776385