Valpo at UNI Jan 5 @ 8pm

[VUGrad1314]

All I can say is thank God we finally got Belmont and Murray State on board so that we still have hope of being a multibid conference after Loyola leaves because we sure aren't doing anything ourselves to help make that happen. I wish we could actually pull our weight for once so that we wouldn't have to worry so much about getting outside help to keep the MVC viable in the quest for at large bids but that seems fundamentally impossible under Matt Lottich. If anyone wonders why I focus so much attention on expansion and realignment this is why. I feel no reason to get excited and invest too much time or energy in Valpo basketball itself as long as he remains the coach. He needs to either figure it out fast or we need a change in leadership if we want to preserve the future of the program.

[justducky]

My hope was that this would be an adequate man to man defensive team but I've already scrapped that notion. I know that Matt likes man defense and I suspect that he wanted to save any major zone adjustments until later in the season. However every 4 guard offense on the planet is giving us problems while also preventing Kithier and Krikke from seeing significant floor time together. Every team in this league can give us a good 4 guard look so what do we do and when do we do it?

I'm looking for opinions. Are we quick enough to be a good zone defense team?

Some of you have already stated that us having Ben, Thomas and Kobe on a zone offense together might not hurt despite a shortage of outside shooting threats. Anybody have any follow up comments on that?

[mj]

This keeps up and the transfers will be tranferring again.

The next game will really show what kind of team we have and possible if Lottich will be coaching next year. If we get blown out again and it appears the players have given up, then I think Lottich is toast.

We didn't look like a team tonight but rather 5 guys on the court who happened to be wearing the same uniform. Maybe it was an off night, it happens. But if this due to a chemistry or locker room issue, then I think we have larger problems.

[humbleopinion]

I'm looking for opinions. Are we quick enough to be a good zone defense team?

You might have noticed that we played some zone tonight.  It did no better than the man-to-man.  Let's hope that this game is not typical of any defense that is implemented. I doubt that any on this board would have guessed that if we kept Green is single digits, we would be beat by twenty-seven.

[usc4valpo]

1314 - I dont care about the multi bids and the MVC. As a single entity, we need to be better than what we are. It is not about the Valley to me, it's about Valpo being successful in basketball, and they have major problems to fix.

[justducky]

You might have noticed that we played some zone tonight.  It did no better than the man-to-man

Matt is a man coach who seems to throw in a little zone only to experimentally mix things up. I'm starting to think this bunch might function better primarily as a zone team mixing it up with man. Had Kithier played would it have helped? No. Our man defense might have been even worse if both our bigs had occupied the floor together.

To keep it simple I will not comment on our first half offensive befuddlement  (Jacobson 10-- Lottich 0) because defense is the larger problem. If not zone then what is the answer? This looks to be more than just poor fundamentals.

[nkvu]

1314 - I dont care about the multi bids and the MVC. As a single entity, we need to be better than what we are. It is not about the Valley to me, it's about Valpo being successful in basketball, and they have major problems to fix.

Agreed. I don't care how many bids the MVC gets if Valpo doesn't realistically have a shot at one of them. If beat downs like last night become the norm I can't get excited about watching more than one Valley team go to the dance.

[Just Sayin]

TeamRankings
Valparaiso Basketball
Predictions Update
Jan 6, 2022
•   After losing to N Iowa 92-65 yesterday, Valparaiso is now projected to finish the regular season 14-16 (7-11 MVC).
•   The odds that the Beacons make the NCAA tournament are 1%, unchanged since yesterday.
•   We currently rank Valparaiso as the #203 team in the country, and the #8 team in the MVC.
•   Next game: Sat, Jan 8 vs. #148 S Illinois. Our power ratings give the Beacons a 52% chance to win.
Bracketology Projections
Make NCAA Tournament   Get Automatic NCAA Bid   Projected Seed
(if Selected)
..........1%.......................................1%...................   15
•   Valparaiso almost certainly won't get an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament, so they need to earn an automatic bid by winning the MVC tournament.
•   As for an automatic bid ... Valparaiso has a 1% chance to win the conference tournament. The outlook is bleak, but stranger things have happened.

Regular Season Record Projection
Current Record   Projection For Remaining Games   Projected     Final Record
8-7(1-2 MVC)                    6-9(6-9 MVC)                              14-16(7-11 MVC)
•   The more precise final record expectation for Valparaiso is 13.7 wins and 16.3 losses, slightly worse than the rounded projection above.
•   Based on our projections, the Beacons will most likely finish the regular season with a record between 15-15 and 13-17.

[Just Sayin]

Team Rankings:

Next game: Sat, Jan 8 vs. #148 S Illinois. Our power ratings give the Beacons a 52% chance to win.

Pomeroy:
Chance for Valpo to win:
47%

Massey:
Win Probability   Valpo 37%   

[valpopal]

Eron's vlog of the UNI trip. "Not the outcome we expected," he reports in an understatement. Also, the players express desire for upgrades to the ARC.

[Just Sayin]

Eron's vlog of the UNI trip. "Not the outcome we expected," he reports in an understatement. Also, the players express desire for upgrades to the ARC.

What time in the video do players discuss desire for ARC upgrades?

[Just Sayin]

Largest increase/decrease in KenPom rankings change after yesterday's games.

Alcorn St. +27
Valpo -19

Northern Iowa +13

[VUGrad1314]

So now it's gotten to the point where even the players are complaining about our sub par facilities. Is the administration listening? Is there a plan in place? When will it be enacted? We can't paper over our shortcomings with winning and success anymore. The time for action is now (really it was even before now) We really  have to move soon if we don't want to become perpetually mediocre). Upgrade\get new facilities and we probably need a new coach if we want to save the program.

[Valpo89]

perpetually mediocre.

I think we're already there.

[usc4valpo]

If Valpo has low funds, perhaps the MVC should not focus right now on multiple bids and have schools donate to Valpo for better facilities, which will strength Valpo and the conference to ensure multiple bids in the long term.

[Old Timer]

Could not watch game last night. Perhaps that was a break. However, being a glutton for punishment I watched the replay concentrating on the defense. Although our on ball defense is fair, our off ball help defense is non existent. If we do help, our next rotation to help is slow or not there resulting in a layup. We generally play tight even on the week side resulting in a wide open middle and a susceptibility to the back door and no opportunity to help. We tend to stand stiff legged and do not move. Do not seem to communicate well. Many other fundamental mistakes. Will a zone help? Not likely as we don't move, communicate, or above all rotate. When I have seen our zones, we generally have a weak rebounding position because of lack of rotation.

Yes, the players make mistakes. What you do and are taught in practice will be reflected on the floor. Judging from our performance I question what teaching is going on. That being said a road trip to Northern Iowa has always been tough for Valpo. I have no use for any comments regarding Valpo facilities as the fundamentals we need could be developed in the worst YMCA gymnasium.

[wh]

Humbleopinion pointed out that UNI is better than their record indicates. I don't know enough about their injury/eligibility situation to say. I do know about ours, however:

0-3   1st 3 games of the season without Ben and Kobe
4-2   next 6 games with Ben, but not Kobe
4-1   last 5 games with Ben and Kobe (our only loss was by 1 point after leading all the way)

I can easily envision a 12-2 record right now instead of 8-6 with a full complement of key players been from the beginning. Of course, we're not 12-2, but I expect a 12-2 favored-to-win type performance tonight, not an 8-6 gee I hope we can stay with them, little engine that couldn't persona.

After giving it considerable thought, I believe that the team failed to live up to my expectations last night. 

[justducky]

our off ball help defense is non existent. If we do help, our next rotation to help is slow or not there resulting in a layup. We generally play tight even on the week side resulting in a wide open middle and a susceptibility to the back door and no opportunity to help. We tend to stand stiff legged and do not move. Do not seem to communicate well. Many other fundamental mistakes. Will a zone help? Not likely as we don't move, communicate, or above all rotate. When I have seen our zones, we generally have a weak rebounding position because of lack of rotation.

Got it! We can't play zone because we can't play man and we can't play man because it requires movement, communication and coaching. So we are stuck until an effort is made to get us unstuck. I'm looking for simple answers so when should we get out and push? 

[NativeCheesehead]

Man, I fell asleep early last night and dreamed we got curb stomped in the backwoods of Iowa. Whew!  Anyway, what time is the game tongiht?

[valpotx]

If they win, we are more likely to get donors to upgrade Facilities, so I view that as on the players, as well