Davidson's win, and near-tie with us in the RPI, highlights an issue that was on my mind already.
How are we going to look to the selection committee? Not just RPI, but our overall profile?
A replica of the sheet used by the committee as available (for Valpo) at
http://www.bbstate.com/schools/VALP/sheet (http://www.bbstate.com/schools/VALP/sheet)
So, RPI's definitely a factor. But clearly not the only one.
How do we look compared to the competition? Who is the competition?
Davidson's clearly competition. After their win tonight, their RPI is 0.5658 compared to our (pre Wright State) 0.5670.
Who else is definitely competition for seeds, or who might be?
Either with RPI's above us (LA Tech, Akron, Bucknell) in about the same neighborhood (Davidson; Denver? New Mexico State? Buknell? Stephen F. Austin?), or even from below (Harvard; Florida Gulf Coast? SD State?).
Davidson's sheet isn't updated yet
http://www.bbstate.com/schools/DAV/sheet (http://www.bbstate.com/schools/DAV/sheet)
(not that ours is final), but probably won't change substantively.
Looks like Valpo's better in almost every category.
Our records and RPI are nearly identical. Our average RPI win is better, their average RPI loss is worse. Our best wins are a little better. Their bad losses are more abundant and worse.
Their conference and non-conference SOS is worse than ours. It's actually a little hard to decide why their RPI winds up so close to ours.
I'd say we'll clearly be higher on the S curve than Davidson.
Crashing the Dance seems to think so (pre-update):
http://www.crashingthedance.com/seed.php (http://www.crashingthedance.com/seed.php)
Summarizing a bit, it seems like only three conferences have any real probability of helping us at this point. The MAC (boo Akron! plays tomorrow), the Southland (boo Stephen F. Austin! plays tomorrow), or the WAC (harder - boo LA Tech, but also Denver and New Mexico State! all play today).
Then the competition for a 13 seed seems to include:
Probably above us: Bucknell, Belmont
Probably about level with us: Davidson, Stephen F. Austin if they make it, Akron if they make it, LA Tech (or Denever or New Mexico State) if they make it, SD State
Probably below us: FL Gulf Coast, Harvard, Montana, Iona
Others have argued on this board that SD State has a quality win (New Mexico) and Davidson at least has BCS wins (even if they're hardly titans, and weren't away games) and a win over a likely tournament team, which may give them the edge. It's also been argued that our numbers look better than Davidsons in many other categories. And been pointed out that Davidson has the longest win streak in D1 basketball.
Any other feelings on the competition?
I think you've pretty much nailed it!
Let's not forget the C-USA. They only have two teams, Memphis and Southern Miss, that would finish ahead of us. Their 3rd and 4th place teams (UTEP and UCF) would both most likely be behind us on the S curve. So this is also a conference tournament to pay attention to.
Quote from: agibson on March 14, 2013, 12:32:07 PM
Summarizing a bit, it seems like only three conferences have any real probability of helping us at this point. The MAC (boo Akron! plays tomorrow), the Southland (boo Stephen F. Austin! plays tomorrow), or the WAC (harder - boo LA Tech, but also Denver and New Mexico State! all play today).
Then the competition for a 13 seed seems to include:
Probably above us: Bucknell, Belmont
Probably about level with us: Davidson, Stephen F. Austin if they make it, Akron if they make it, LA Tech (or Denever or New Mexico State) if they make it, SD State
Probably below us: FL Gulf Coast, Harvard, Montana, Iona
Others have argued on this board that SD State has a quality win (New Mexico) and Davidson at least has BCS wins (even if they're hardly titans, and weren't away games) and a win over a likely tournament team, which may give them the edge. It's also been argued that our numbers look better than Davidsons in many other categories. And been pointed out that Davidson has the longest win streak in D1 basketball.
Any other feelings on the competition?
Yes, but as I posted elsewhere, SDSU also lost to Belmont by 27, to Minnesota by 24, to Murray State by 11 and to frecking CSU Bakersfield!
Quote from: valpo4life on March 14, 2013, 01:25:50 PM
Let's not forget the C-USA. They only have two teams, Memphis and Southern Miss, that would finish ahead of us. Their 3rd and 4th place teams (UTEP and UCF) would both most likely be behind us on the S curve. So this is also a conference tournament to pay attention to.
Good! Memphis was undefeated in conference, but so was Norfolk State (OK - not a _very_ close analogy, but...).
Southern Miss is playing now (up 50-41 at almost the end of the 3rd quarter), Memphis plays in the quarterfinals tonight.
Quote from: agibson on March 14, 2013, 01:37:12 PM
Quote from: valpo4life on March 14, 2013, 01:25:50 PM
Let's not forget the C-USA. They only have two teams, Memphis and Southern Miss, that would finish ahead of us. Their 3rd and 4th place teams (UTEP and UCF) would both most likely be behind us on the S curve. So this is also a conference tournament to pay attention to.
Good! Memphis was undefeated in conference, but so was Norfolk State (OK - not a _very_ close analogy, but...).
Southern Miss is playing now (up 50-41 at almost the end of the 3rd quarter), Memphis plays in the quarterfinals tonight.
They play quarters in CUSA? That's odd.
YIKES! So if I read this crashing the dance site right, are we a low 14 seed (according to them)?
Quote from: Kyle321n on March 14, 2013, 01:39:55 PM
They play quarters in CUSA? That's odd.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaphor (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaphor)
And barely, at that!
Quote from: agibson on March 14, 2013, 01:42:57 PM
Quote from: Kyle321n on March 14, 2013, 01:39:55 PM
They play quarters in CUSA? That's odd.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaphor (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaphor)
And barely, at that!
Odd phrasing. "With 10 minutes to play" would have been more common for CBB. ;)
Quote from: walldozer on March 14, 2013, 01:41:43 PM
YIKES! So if I read this crashing the dance site right, are we a low 14 seed (according to them)?
http://www.crashingthedance.com/seed.php (http://www.crashingthedance.com/seed.php)
Yeah, I said the same thing at first. Their labeling is a little weird.
Where they say "Seed lines 13 to 16" is probably right in the middle of 12.
For me it's easiest to count from the bottom. Assuming, for now, that there are no geographical or conference shenanigans, etc. that affect seeding. So, 63-68 are 16's. 59-62 are 15's. 55-58 are 14's. 51-54 are 13's. Then the at-larges start to matter.
So, they've got us as the highest 14.
For the at-larges, I think they'd give Belmont and Akron real 12 seeds, and make LaSalle, Oregon, St. Mary's, and Virginia play-in.
Quote from: Kyle321n on March 14, 2013, 01:46:16 PM
Quote from: agibson on March 14, 2013, 01:42:57 PM
Quote from: Kyle321n on March 14, 2013, 01:39:55 PM
They play quarters in CUSA? That's odd.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaphor (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaphor)
And barely, at that!
Odd phrasing. "With 10 minutes to play" would have been more common for CBB. ;)
You're cramping my poetic stylings ;)
Quote from: agibson on March 14, 2013, 01:47:35 PMYeah, I said the same thing at first. Their labeling is a little weird.
I haven't cared enough to figure it out, 'Dozer, but they only have the bottom 4 as 16 seeds, when in fact the bottom *6* are, so that is what makes us actually a 13 by their own labeling.
(By "figure it out" i mean where the extra 4 in the 68-64 comes from....)
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on March 14, 2013, 01:57:20 PMI haven't cared enough to figure it out, 'Dozer, but they only have the bottom 4 as 16 seeds, when in fact the bottom *6* are, so that is what makes us actually a 13 by their own labeling.
(By "figure it out" i mean where the extra 4 in the 68-64 comes from....)
I suppose that's about right. If I had to guess, I'd say that they took 12x4 = 48, and wrote "Seed lines 13 to 16" below that. When most years at least some of the 12's will be at-large play-ins, so that it takes more than 48 teams to fill the 12 seeds.
I'm 95% sure that on their S-curve we're the top 14 seed, as number 55 overall.