With Green Bay's loss yesterday, it's clear that we've clinched a home game in the tournament (or, OK, a double bye and a semi-final berth in Cleveland or somewhere). Of course, we'd very much prefer that game was in the semi-finals!
Maybe that (the 6th seed) was already mathematically certain - I didn't look into the who-plays-who in enough detail to be sure.
It's entirely possible that we've already clinched 5th, or even higher. But, it gets a bit murky if e.g. both we and Cleveland State lose a couple more games.
It takes us at least two more losses to lose the double bye.
Keep the wheels on this wagon, boys!
I think that StlVUFan will be keeping the seeds updated on his blog:
http://horizonleague.blogspot.com/2012/02/mens-seed-race-2102012-spotlight-on.html (http://horizonleague.blogspot.com/2012/02/mens-seed-race-2102012-spotlight-on.html)
Things are looking better for VU than was originally predicted by most in the league prior to play. That is why they play them!
Slight update last night: http://horizonleague.blogspot.com/2012/02/mens-race-for-double-byes-2122012.html (http://horizonleague.blogspot.com/2012/02/mens-race-for-double-byes-2122012.html)
If you find yourself chuckling at the complete analysis of Wright State's and Green Bay's double bye possibilities, trust me, it's only because the case was so simple ;) CSU was the only other realistic choice that I spent any time on. Milwaukee, Butler, YSU, and Detroit -- way to complicated to dive into yet (at least I thought so). After Tuesday, I plan to load my spreadsheet and get going full speed, because there will only be 13 games left.
By the way, if Green Bay hands YSU their lunch and Valpo handles UIC tomorrow, the double bye is in the bank. That's still in play, it's just now we need help. I have confidence in the Phoenix, they almost snatched victory from the jaws of defeat at Calihan yesterday. Cam Cerroni's buzzer beater went in and out and would have sent them to OT (2 missed FTs by McCallum helped, of course).
iF, we beat both Chicago teams but lay an egg against butler, do we still capture 1st seed and host? I'm trying to figure out what happens if we come back from the bracket buster flat and lose to butler.
I think we want to avoid Detroit (even though we beaten Detroit twice) and butler in the HL tournament as I believe both teams are red hot and playing their best basketball of the year.
Quote from: oklahomamick on February 13, 2012, 12:24:20 PM
iF, we beat both Chicago teams but lay an egg against butler, do we still capture 1st seed and host? I'm trying to figure out what happens if we come back from the bracket buster flat and lose to butler.
I think we want to avoid Detroit (even though we beaten Detroit twice) and butler in the HL tournament as I believe both teams are red hot and playing their best basketball of the year.
We'd be 13-5, but CSU could win out and be 14-4. We'd still get the double bye, but the 2nd round and semis would be held at the Wolstein Center. If CSU doesn't win out, however, then we'd get the 1 seed. Actually, a pretty decent shot they lose once in Wisconsin, and they still have Detroit left as well.
I'm not sure there's anybody we'd breathe a sigh of relief to play, though. I do agree with your choices. CSU could be in that list, but as long as they aren't at home, I think there's a decent chance they wilt a bit. They're really banged up (then again, so are we).
Quote from: covufan on February 13, 2012, 10:57:04 AMI think that StlVUFan will be keeping the seeds updated on his blog:
Indeed! I should have thought to check. It looks like our wheels got turning at about the same time, and we took slightly different tacks.
I think I'll leave the 2^23 comprehensive business to Jim. But, once in a while, I can't resist checking the numbers for Valpo.
Quote from: agibson on February 13, 2012, 01:07:07 PM
Quote from: covufan on February 13, 2012, 10:57:04 AMI think that StlVUFan will be keeping the seeds updated on his blog:
Indeed! I should have thought to check. It looks like our wheels got turning at about the same time, and we took slightly different tacks.
I think I'll leave the 2^23 comprehensive business to Jim. But, once in a while, I can't resist checking the numbers for Valpo.
Yeah, Excel only allows 2^15 or something like that, and all the Tuesday games are at night, so I'm just going to wait until all the games are over and settle for 2^13 ;)
Quote from: oklahomamick on February 13, 2012, 12:24:20 PM
I think we want to avoid Detroit (even though we beaten Detroit twice) and butler in the HL tournament as I believe both teams are red hot and playing their best basketball of the year.
I somewhat disagree with this statement. Let's say Butler or Detroit is red hot going into the tournament. I would rather play them on Saturday night after they are tired from having to play Friday night. Otherwise you risk getting a red hot team who has had a few days to rest and prepare for the Tuesday night game. Let's have the red hot team on our side of the bracket so we can make sure we take care of them! (This is all assuming we get a 1 or 2 seed)
I sold tournament seeds at the Big Dance last year. Butler bought some but their plant was just short of being the highest. When Mack fell down the Bulldogs lost their crown and couldn't shoot their way out of a Houston paper bag. I heard the paper bag was only 20% covered with holes.
Quote from: bbtds on February 13, 2012, 09:30:48 PM
I sold tournament seeds at the Big Dance last year. Butler bought some but their plant was just short of being the highest. When Mack fell down the Bulldogs lost their crown and couldn't shoot their way out of a Houston paper bag. I heard the paper bag was only 20% covered with holes.
Am i the only one confused by what you are talking about?
Quote from: DMvalpo18 on February 13, 2012, 11:15:40 PM
Quote from: bbtds on February 13, 2012, 09:30:48 PM
I sold tournament seeds at the Big Dance last year. Butler bought some but their plant was just short of being the highest. When Mack fell down the Bulldogs lost their crown and couldn't shoot their way out of a Houston paper bag. I heard the paper bag was only 20% covered with holes.
Am i the only one confused by what you are talking about?
Am I the only one who has no idea what persuades someone they are the only one who thinks something? ;)
I thought it was funny, myself. If you follow the meter it almost fits the Nursery Rhyme "Humpty Dumpty" (until the very end, when it uses way too many syllables). It was parody of Butler's 2011 NCAA tourney run.
Quote from: StlVUFan on February 13, 2012, 11:53:39 PM
Quote from: DMvalpo18 on February 13, 2012, 11:15:40 PM
Quote from: bbtds on February 13, 2012, 09:30:48 PM
I sold tournament seeds at the Big Dance last year. Butler bought some but their plant was just short of being the highest. When Mack fell down the Bulldogs lost their crown and couldn't shoot their way out of a Houston paper bag. I heard the paper bag was only 20% covered with holes.
Am i the only one confused by what you are talking about?
Am I the only one who has no idea what persuades someone they are the only one who thinks something? ;)
I thought it was funny, myself. If you follow the meter it almost fits the Nursery Rhyme "Humpty Dumpty" (until the very end, when it uses way too many syllables). It was parody of Butler's 2011 NCAA tourney run.
I was channeling my inner 'sader03 and low and behold on the Tuesday when relationships die or are cemented for life StLVuFan proves their true friendship.
Of course on the poll observation of 3-0 against teams above us in the poll because he is not in a relationship with that person it doesn't make any sense to him.
Quote from: StlVUFan on February 13, 2012, 11:55:13 PM
Quote from: valpo84 on February 13, 2012, 09:04:06 PM
And we are now 3-0 against teams ahead of us in the mid-major poll (and 4-0 against all schools receiving votes).
I see Cleveland State and Akron, but I don't see number 3.
:) :crazy: ;) :) :crazy: ;) :) :crazy: ;) :) :crazy: ;) :) :crazy: ;) :) :crazy: ;) :) :crazy: ;)
Quote from: DMvalpo18 on February 13, 2012, 11:15:40 PM
Quote from: bbtds on February 13, 2012, 09:30:48 PM
I sold tournament seeds at the Big Dance last year. Butler bought some but their plant was just short of being the highest. When Mack fell down the Bulldogs lost their crown and couldn't shoot their way out of a Houston paper bag. I heard the paper bag was only 20% covered with holes.
Am i the only one confused by what you are talking about?
I just assumed that he might have been hittin the sauce again and that one of his freinds Like STL VU needed to step foreward and give or get him some help.
Quote from: DMvalpo18 on February 13, 2012, 11:15:40 PM
Quote from: bbtds on February 13, 2012, 09:30:48 PM
I sold tournament seeds at the Big Dance last year. Butler bought some but their plant was just short of being the highest. When Mack fell down the Bulldogs lost their crown and couldn't shoot their way out of a Houston paper bag. I heard the paper bag was only 20% covered with holes.
Am i the only one confused by what you are talking about?
(http://cache.gawkerassets.com/assets/images/39/2011/10/applause.gif)
Quote from: StlVUFan on February 13, 2012, 11:53:39 PM
Quote from: DMvalpo18 on February 13, 2012, 11:15:40 PM
Quote from: bbtds on February 13, 2012, 09:30:48 PM
I sold tournament seeds at the Big Dance last year. Butler bought some but their plant was just short of being the highest. When Mack fell down the Bulldogs lost their crown and couldn't shoot their way out of a Houston paper bag. I heard the paper bag was only 20% covered with holes.
Am i the only one confused by what you are talking about?
Am I the only one who has no idea what persuades someone they are the only one who thinks something? ;)
I thought it was funny, myself. If you follow the meter it almost fits the Nursery Rhyme "Humpty Dumpty" (until the very end, when it uses way too many syllables). It was parody of Butler's 2011 NCAA tourney run.
(http://cache.gawkerassets.com/assets/images/39/2011/10/wtfkells.gif)
...im still trying to figure out what an F150 is ;D
Quote from: drewsaders11 on February 14, 2012, 06:57:16 PM
...im still trying to figure out what an F150 is ;D
(http://www.midwestsportsfans.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/mj-laughing.gif)
Was thinking the SAME thing! lol
Teamrankings also has some predictions for HL seeds for Valpo:
http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/valparaiso-crusaders/projections (http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/valparaiso-crusaders/projections)
Quote from: covufan on February 15, 2012, 09:07:50 AM
Teamrankings also has some predictions for HL seeds for Valpo:
http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/valparaiso-crusaders/projections (http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/valparaiso-crusaders/projections)
cool find. but it doesn't look like they fully updated after last night's game.
Quote from: covufan on February 15, 2012, 09:07:50 AM
Teamrankings also has some predictions for HL seeds for Valpo:
http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/valparaiso-crusaders/projections (http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/valparaiso-crusaders/projections)
That 97.1 % is the mathematical probability, all scenarios being equal. I got that much done last night. CSU has a 2+% chance and Butler has about a .1 % chance of hosting.
What are the scenarios for CSU and BU to host? My guess is that CSU has to win out and finish above us and w/ Butler we're probably talking some crazy, but somehow possible "best win" tiebreaker scenario...
Quote from: KL31NY on February 15, 2012, 11:37:09 AM
What are the scenarios for CSU and BU to host? My guess is that CSU has to win out and finish above us and w/ Butler we're probably talking some crazy, but somehow possible "best win" tiebreaker scenario...
Still working on them ;) CSU has to win out and have Valpo lose out, that much is for sure. Butler can host if we lose out, they win out, CSU obviously loses at least 1, and somehow the tiebreaker makes it to YSU. I actually left my spreadsheet at home or I could tell you exactly what those are. Actually, I think that if Butler wins out, Valpo loses out, CSU loses out, YSU wins out, and Detroit loses at least 1 more, YSU would be all alone in 3rd place and would be the first common opponent to break the tie between Butler and Valpo.
One thing that Valpo should do when it hosts the HL Tourney is to show the rest of the HL how to host by allowing the fans to intermingle at get togethers of some kind. The intermingling of the fans of different teams is what made the Mid-Con Tourney a fun experience.
If you publicize it on these fan message boards that would be a huge boost to these HL Tournament fan get togethers.
Thanks to StlVUFan for the early confirmation about the race projections.
Quote from: StlVUFan on February 15, 2012, 02:40:06 PM
Quote from: KL31NY on February 15, 2012, 11:37:09 AM
What are the scenarios for CSU and BU to host? My guess is that CSU has to win out and finish above us and w/ Butler we're probably talking some crazy, but somehow possible "best win" tiebreaker scenario...
Still working on them ;) CSU has to win out and have Valpo lose out, that much is for sure. Butler can host if we lose out, they win out, CSU obviously loses at least 1, and somehow the tiebreaker makes it to YSU. I actually left my spreadsheet at home or I could tell you exactly what those are. Actually, I think that if Butler wins out, Valpo loses out, CSU loses out, YSU wins out, and Detroit loses at least 1 more, YSU would be all alone in 3rd place and would be the first common opponent to break the tie between Butler and Valpo.
Good idea from bbtds. Would definitely enjoy that if we could get something together. A lot of people inside Athletics and out have said great things about the Mid-Con experiences, so it'd be nice to try for some of that here.
Quote from: bbtds on February 15, 2012, 03:36:24 PM
One thing that Valpo should do when it hosts the HL Tourney is to show the rest of the HL how to host by allowing the fans to intermingle at get togethers of some kind. The intermingling of the fans of different teams is what made the Mid-Con Tourney a fun experience.
If you publicize it on these fan message boards that would be a huge boost to these HL Tournament fan get togethers.
Now enough from me for a while. I think I've posted in three separate sections of the forum in less than 10 minutes. POSTING OVERLOAD ;D
Quote from: KL31NY on February 15, 2012, 09:52:05 PM
Now enough from me for a while. I think I've posted in three separate sections of the forum in less than 10 minutes. POSTING OVERLOAD ;D
nonsense. your contributions are very insightful, especially as a current student. there's never been a large number of active students posting at any given time, and that's a resource that as such doesn't get well utilized.
With tonight's Detroit win over WSU, Butler's miniscule chance at the 1 seed disappeared completely. The tourney will either be at the ARC or at the Wolstein Center.
bbtds, you should work with the athletic department or alumni relations to put some kind of a gathering together at a local establishment for HL fans, even though doesn't work as well for the students, since it is during spring break again, right? Nothing wrong with you and some friends working together to do this, and maybe take some of the burden off the athletic department.
It's great to know the best parts of the HL Tourney can now only be found in Valpo or Cleveland.
Not True... the championship would run through the home court of whomever has the highest remaining seed.
I predict a Hinkle Championship game. 8)
Quote from: Nildogg on February 17, 2012, 05:50:40 PM
Not True... the championship would run through the home court of whomever has the highest remaining seed.
I predict a Hinkle Championship game. 8)
I guess this could be true if Butler and someone other than CSU or Valpo win at Valpo.
Quote from: covufan on February 17, 2012, 06:03:19 PM
Quote from: Nildogg on February 17, 2012, 05:50:40 PM
Not True... the championship would run through the home court of whomever has the highest remaining seed.
I predict a Hinkle Championship game. 8)
I guess this could be true if Butler and someone other than CSU or Valpo win at Valpo.
That's why I said the best
parts of the tourney can only go through Valpo or Cleveland. The semifinals are the best games because the players leave more on the court during the semifinals than they do in the final game.
Quote from: Nildogg on February 17, 2012, 05:50:40 PM
Not True... the championship would run through the home court of whomever has the highest remaining seed.
I predict a Hinkle Championship game. 8)
Well, yeah, there is that, but we were talking about Friday and Saturday.
Quote from: Nildogg on February 17, 2012, 05:50:40 PM
Not True... the championship would run through the home court of whomever has the highest remaining seed.
I predict a Hinkle Championship game. 8)
Too bad Butler will lose before they get there. I think you should just shoot for 2013-2014...