Basketball Over-Under 2023-24

talksalot · November 03, 2023, 08:05:40 PM

I remember as a kid growing up waiting for the Sears Catalog to appear in the mailbox. My siblings and I would go through all 1100 pages one at a time...

Well... NOW it's the Over Under Podcast that brings a similar joy of anticipation where the skies are always blue...

The Victory Bell and the Chef have once again not let me down with the best 52 minutes of the week...

Here are the O/U categories for the year... and I'll start. As was stated, I'll try to keep these updated periodically through the season.

Edwards - 15.5 points and rebounds - OVER
Palm - 5.7 rebounds per game - OVER
Barrett - 0.9 3ptrs per game played - UNDER
Weatherspoon - 41.6% from the floor - UNDER
Ajiboye - 1.5 Blocks and Steals/game - OVER
DeAveiro -120.5 assists for year - OVER ... IF someone will score off his passes!
Williamson - 1.5 assist / turnover ratio - OVER
Schweiger - 11.25 points per game - OVER, if he can pad the stats in the Pre-Conference
Stafford - 16.5 points per game - WAY OVER
Team Field Goals Attempted 60.5/gm - UNDER, unless they can pad the stats pre-January
All Newcomer Team for MVC - 0.5 - OVER, we have so many newcomers, the odds are with us
All League Team 1st, 2nd, 3rd - 0.5 - OVER - Darius time to Shine
Valley Road Victories - 1.5 - OVER - SIU and Evansville
Final Standing in Valley - 10.5 - UNDER (Worse) - I'll stick with the professionals on this one
Total Wins - 10.5 - OVER because optimism exudes

SO...
did you see what Loyola did to the Trinity Trolls the other day? 104-44.
did you see what South Suburban Community College did to the Trinity Christian Trolls on 11/1? 128-37
Trinity is playing Moody Bible Institute on Friday, and "East-West" on Saturday before our game on Monday.

This is not a good season for Jason Hawkins and the Trolls.

vu84v2 · November 03, 2023, 09:49:13 PM

Edwards - 15.5 points and rebounds - UNDER
Palm - 5.7 rebounds per game - UNDER
Barrett - 0.9 3ptrs per game played - OVER
Weatherspoon - 41.6% from the floor - UNDER
Ajiboye - 1.5 Blocks and Steals/game - UNDER
DeAveiro -120.5 assists for year - UNDER
Williamson - 1.5 assist / turnover ratio - UNDER
Schweiger - 11.25 points per game - UNDER
Stafford - 16.5 points per game - UNDER
Team Field Goals Attempted 60.5/gm - OVER
All Newcomer Team for MVC - 0.5 - OVER
All League Team 1st, 2nd, 3rd - 0.5 - OVER
Valley Road Victories - 1.5 - OVER
Final Standing in Valley - 10.5 - OVER (better)
Total Wins - 10.5 - OVER

vok22 · November 04, 2023, 11:01:45 AM

Edwards - 15.5 points and rebounds - UNDER
Palm - 5.7 rebounds per game - UNDER
Barrett - 0.9 3ptrs per game played - OVER
Weatherspoon - 41.6% from the floor - UNDER
Ajiboye - 1.5 Blocks and Steals/game - UNDER
DeAveiro -120.5 assists for year - UNDER
Williamson - 1.5 assist / turnover ratio - UNDER
Schweiger - 11.25 points per game - OVER
Stafford - 16.5 points per game - OVER
Team Field Goals Attempted 60.5/gm - UNDER
All Newcomer Team for MVC - 0.5 - OVER
All League Team 1st, 2nd, 3rd - 0.5 - OVER
Valley Road Victories - 1.5 - OVER
Final Standing in Valley - 10.5 - UNDER (Worse)
Total Wins - 10.5 - UNDER

AlaskaCrusader19 · November 05, 2023, 12:34:56 PM

Edwards - 15.5 points and rebounds - UNDER
Palm - 5.7 rebounds per game - UNDER
Barrett - 0.9 3ptrs per game played - UNDER
Weatherspoon - 41.6% from the floor - OVER
Ajiboye - 1.5 Blocks and Steals/game - OVER
DeAveiro -120.5 assists for year - OVER
Williamson - 1.5 assist / turnover ratio - UNDER
Schweiger - 11.25 points per game - OVER
Stafford - 16.5 points per game - OVER
Team Field Goals Attempted 60.5/gm - UNDER
All Newcomer Team for MVC - 0.5 - OVER
All League Team 1st, 2nd, 3rd - 0.5 - OVER
Valley Road Victories - 1.5 - UNDER
Final Standing in Valley - 10.5 - UNDER
Total Wins - 10.5 - OVER

valpopal · November 05, 2023, 01:51:31 PM

Edwards - 15.5 points and rebounds - UNDER
Palm - 5.7 rebounds per game - UNDER
Barrett - 0.9 3ptrs per game played - UNDER
Weatherspoon - 41.6% from the floor - UNDER
Ajiboye - 1.5 Blocks and Steals/game - OVER
DeAveiro -120.5 assists for year - UNDER
Williamson - 1.5 assist / turnover ratio - UNDER
Schweiger - 11.25 points per game - UNDER
Stafford - 16.5 points per game - UNDER
Team Field Goals Attempted 60.5/gm - UNDER
All Newcomer Team for MVC - 0.5 - OVER
All League Team 1st, 2nd, 3rd - 0.5 - OVER
Valley Road Victories - 1.5 - OVER
Final Standing in Valley - 10.5 - UNDER (11)
Total Wins - 10.5 - UNDER (10)

humbleopinion · November 05, 2023, 07:34:02 PM

Edwards - 15.5 points and rebounds - UNDER
Palm - 5.7 rebounds per game - OVER
Barrett - 0.9 3 ptrs per game played - OVER
Weatherspoon - 41.6% from the floor - UNDER
Ajiboye - 1.5 Blocks and Steals/game - OVER
DeAveiro -120.5 assists for year - OVER
Williamson - 1.5 assist / turnover ratio - OVER
Schweiger - 11.25 points per game - OVER -he'll benefit from being overlooked
Stafford - 16.5 points per game - UNDER -- defenses will learn to focus on him
Team Field Goals Attempted 60.5/gm - UNDER
All Newcomer Team for MVC - 0.5 - UNDER -- plenty of other choices (see my comment about Stafford above)
All League Team 1st, 2nd, 3rd - 0.5 - UNDER
Valley Road Victories - 1.5 - OVER -- I plan to be at the SIU and Ill St games, and I hope to leave happy
Final Standing in Valley - 10.5 - UNDER
Total Wins - 10.5 - OVER

historyman · November 06, 2023, 05:17:17 AM

Edwards - 15.5 points and rebounds - UNDER
Palm - 5.7 rebounds per game - UNDER
Barrett - 0.9 3ptrs per game played - UNDER
Weatherspoon - 41.6% from the floor - UNDER
Ajiboye - 1.5 Blocks and Steals/game - OVER
DeAveiro -120.5 assists for year - UNDER
Williamson - 1.5 assist / turnover ratio - UNDER
Schweiger - 11.25 points per game - UNDER
Stafford - 16.5 points per game - UNDER
Team Field Goals Attempted 60.5/gm - OVER
All Newcomer Team for MVC - 0.5 - UNDER (0)
All League Team 1st, 2nd, 3rd - 0.5 - OVER (1)
Valley Road Victories - 1.5 - OVER (2)
Final Standing in Valley - 10.5 - UNDER (12)
Total Wins - 10.5 - UNDER (8)

Somebody has to be rational here and a bit more pessimistic.

VUBBFan · November 06, 2023, 10:01:34 AM

Edwards - 15.5 points and rebounds - UNDER
Palm - 5.7 rebounds per game - OVER
Barrett - 0.9 3ptrs per game played - OVER
Weatherspoon - 41.6% from the floor - OVER
Ajiboye - 1.5 Blocks and Steals/game - UNDER
DeAveiro -120.5 assists for year - UNDER
Williamson - 1.5 assist / turnover ratio - UNDER
Schweiger - 11.25 points per game - OVER
Stafford - 16.5 points per game - OVER
Team Field Goals Attempted 60.5/gm - UNDER
All Newcomer Team for MVC - 0.5 - OVER
All League Team 1st, 2nd, 3rd - 0.5 - OVER
Valley Road Victories - 1.5 - OVER
Final Standing in Valley - 10.5 - OVER
Total Wins - 10.5 - OVER

covufan · November 06, 2023, 02:07:28 PM

Edwards - 15.5 points and rebounds - OVER
Palm - 5.7 rebounds per game - OVER
Barrett - 0.9 3ptrs per game played - OVER
Weatherspoon - 41.6% from the floor - UNDER
Ajiboye - 1.5 Blocks and Steals/game - OVER
DeAveiro -120.5 assists for year - OVER
Williamson - 1.5 assist / turnover ratio - OVER
Schweiger - 11.25 points per game - OVER
Stafford - 16.5 points per game - OVER
Team Field Goals Attempted 60.5/gm - OVER
All Newcomer Team for MVC - 0.5 - OVER
All League Team 1st, 2nd, 3rd - 0.5 - OVER
Valley Road Victories - 1.5 - OVER
Final Standing in Valley - 10.5 - OVER (Better) I'm going with 9th
Total Wins - 10.5 - OVER My guess is 14 before Arch Madness

Thanks for doing this!

https://media.giphy.com/media/l4FAWrsPP58254lOw/giphy.gif

talksalot · November 07, 2023, 11:29:37 AM

After calculating the huge database that comes from the blowout last night... which included sitting a bunch of our regular rotation guys for most of the second half...

OVER UNDER 2024   through 11/6 REALITY DATA   STATUS

Edwards - 15.5 points and rebounds   16+3=19   OVER
Palm - 5.7 rebounds per game   5   UNDER
Barrett - 0.9 3ptrs per game played   0-3   UNDER
Weatherspoon - 41.6% from the floor   1-9   UNDER
Ajiboye - 1.5 Blocks and Steals/game   1+2   OVER
DeAveiro -120.5 assists (3.88/GM)   6   OVER
Williamson - 1.5 assist per turnover   1 / 0   OVER
Schweiger - 11.25 points per game   9   UNDER
Stafford - 16.5 points per game   20   OVER
Team Field Goals Attempted 60.5/gm   72   OVER

Talksalot (ahem ) and CoVuFan are tied with 7 of 10 correctly prognosticated, and Historyman at 6.

GO AHEAD... tell me it's too early.... pass me the Kool Aid... and a straw. I saw a brotherhood out there. When Barrett pulled a "Diebler" EVERYone was right there. If you don't know what a "Diebler" is...sorry. Whenever Anthony or Connor took a 3? EVERYONE on the bench stood up ready to explode.

Our Starters had an AVERAGE +/- of 36.6, everyone at 30 or higher and Isaiah was a +46.

historyman · November 07, 2023, 05:20:15 PM

Quote from: talksalot on November 07, 2023, 11:29:37 AM
After calculating the huge database that comes from the blowout last night... which included sitting a bunch of our regular rotation guys for most of the second half...

OVER UNDER 2024 through 11/6 REALITY DATA STATUS

Edwards - 15.5 points and rebounds 16+3=19 OVER
Palm - 5.7 rebounds per game 5 UNDER
Barrett - 0.9 3ptrs per game played 0-3 UNDER
Weatherspoon - 41.6% from the floor 1-9 UNDER
Ajiboye - 1.5 Blocks and Steals/game 1+2 OVER
DeAveiro -120.5 assists (3.88/GM) 6 OVER
Williamson - 1.5 assist per turnover 1 / 0 OVER
Schweiger - 11.25 points per game 9 UNDER
Stafford - 16.5 points per game 20 OVER
Team Field Goals Attempted 60.5/gm 72 OVER

Talksalot (ahem ) and CoVuFan are tied with 7 of 10 correctly prognosticated, and Historyman at 6.

GO AHEAD... tell me it's too early.... pass me the Kool Aid... and a straw. I saw a brotherhood out there. When Barrett pulled a "Diebler" EVERYone was right there. If you don't know what a "Diebler" is...sorry. Whenever Anthony or Connor took a 3? EVERYONE on the bench stood up ready to explode.

Our Starters had an AVERAGE +/- of 36.6, everyone at 30 or higher and Isaiah was a +46.

historyman · November 08, 2023, 05:32:13 PM

I couldn't find Jake diving for a loose ball (there were some pics of the Valpo HS Diving team, though) but I did find this. Especially with Jake wearing the nose guarding mask after he broke his nose diving for a loose ball.

historyman · November 08, 2023, 06:05:37 PM

Quote from: historyman on November 08, 2023, 05:32:13 PM
I couldn't find Jake diving for a loose ball (there were some pics of the Valpo HS Diving team, though) but I did find this. Especially with Jake wearing the nose guarding mask after he broke his nose diving for a loose ball.

Oh, God, now all the Ohio State players will know I broke my nose in college. Why did you tell them?

talksalot · November 25, 2023, 07:37:22 PM

so... after 6 games. I believe most of the followers would be OK with a 4-2 record heading into the Valley two-step...

Here are the statistics for the O/U event through 6...

Edwards - 15.5 points and rebounds   52-40   15.33   UNDER - barely
Palm - 5.7 rebounds per game   39   6.50   OVER - barely
Barrett - 0.9 3ptrs per game played   0-3   0   UNDER - Not wearing the boot today
Weatherspoon - 41.6% from the floor   12-36   .333   UNDER - looks comfortable
Ajiboye - 1.5 Blocks and Steals/game   8+4   2.00   OVER - earning the minutes
DeAveiro -120.5 assists (3.88/GM)   28   4.66   OVER - showing the leadership
Williamson - 1.5 assist per turnover   7 / 5   1.16   UNDER - barely
Schweiger - 11.25 points per game   71   11.8   OVER - All Freshman Team candidate
Stafford - 16.5 points per game   105   17.5   OVER - Newcomer of the Year candidate
Team Field Goals Attempted 60.5/gm   376   62.66   OVER - barely

Standings:
Leaderboard:
ME, AlaskaCrusader19, and CoVuFan with 7
HumbleOpinion, HistoryMan with 6

So we have 4 wins... and these games ahead of the valley

@ Central Michigan (2-4) Wins: South Florida, Siena, Losses: Oklahoma, ULM, Florida State, Stetson
Before Valpo: @ Ohio State

@ Virginia Tech (5-1) Wins: Coppin State, Campbell, Wofford, Boise State, Iowa State, Loss: South Carolina
Before Valpo: Auburn, Louisville

Chicago State (2-6) - 3pm December 16th Wins: Southern Indiana and Morgan State (both are winless). Losses: Bowling Green, Mercer, CalState Northridge, Southern Illinois, Northern Colorado
Before Valpo: Tennessee-Martin, Loyola, Delaware State, Stetson, St.Thomas(MN), Northwestern

Samford (4-2) 1pm Tuesday December 19th Wins: South Carolina State, Alabama State, Merrimack, North Carolina A&T; losses: Purdue (by 53) Virginia Commonwealth.
Before Valpo: Louisiana, Alabama A&M, Belmont

@Elon (3-3) Wins: East Tennessee State, IUPUIIII, Holy Cross, Losses: Wake Forest, North Dakota, Winthrop
Before Valpo: Presbyterian, Radford, NC-Greensboro, South Carolina,

Can we go 3-2 in these 5 games?

covufan · November 25, 2023, 08:03:41 PM

Quote from: talksalot on November 25, 2023, 07:37:22 PM

So we have 4 wins... and these games ahead of the valley

@ Central Michigan (2-4) Wins: South Florida, Siena, Losses: Oklahoma, ULM, Florida State, Stetson
Before Valpo: @ Ohio State

@ Virginia Tech (5-1) Wins: Coppin State, Campbell, Wofford, Boise State, Iowa State, Loss: South Carolina
Before Valpo: Auburn, Louisville

Chicago State (2-6) - 3pm December 16th Wins: Southern Indiana and Morgan State (both are winless). Losses: Bowling Green, Mercer, CalState Northridge, Southern Illinois, Northern Colorado
Before Valpo: Tennessee-Martin, Loyola, Delaware State, Stetson, St.Thomas(MN), Northwestern

Samford (4-2) 1pm Tuesday December 19th Wins: South Carolina State, Alabama State, Merrimack, North Carolina A&T; losses: Purdue (by 53) Virginia Commonwealth.
Before Valpo: Louisiana, Alabama A&M, Belmont

@Elon (3-3) Wins: East Tennessee State, IUPUIIII, Holy Cross, Losses: Wake Forest, North Dakota, Winthrop
Before Valpo: Presbyterian, Radford, NC-Greensboro, South Carolina,

Can we go 3-2 in these 5 games?

Would love to go 3-2 in these games. Massey has us favored against CMU and Chicago St, and 49% against both Samford and Elon (Southern win isn't included yet)

https://masseyratings.com/cb2024/8361

Unfortunately, T-Rank and Team Rankings has us only favored against Chicago St.

https://barttorvik.com/team.php?year=20

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/valparaiso-beacons/projections

We are playing better, but need to improve against teams like these to compete in the Valley. I'm not looking for 10-10 in the Valley,just competitive games, especially at home.

I say yes, we go 3-2 in these games.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

nkvu · November 25, 2023, 09:46:48 PM

Quote from: historyman on November 08, 2023, 05:32:13 PM
I couldn't find Jake diving for a loose ball (there were some pics of the Valpo HS Diving team, though) but I did find this. Especially with Jake wearing the nose guarding mask after he broke his nose diving for a loose ball.

As I recall, Jake wasn't much of a shooter in his first couple years, but by his last year he was maybe our only outside threat. Could Darius develop that way?

valpotx · November 26, 2023, 01:23:39 AM

Diebler was a scorer and solid 3 point shooter in HS, and was hesitant to shoot his first few seasons at Valpo. Pretty similar to what Seth Colclasure ended up doing at Valpo. Not sure that Darius directly compares

nkvu · November 26, 2023, 02:38:37 AM

Quote from: valpotx on November 26, 2023, 01:23:39 AM
Diebler was a scorer and solid 3 point shooter in HS, and was hesitant to shoot his first few seasons at Valpo. Pretty similar to what Seth Colclasure ended up doing at Valpo. Not sure that Darius directly compares

Only to the extent that in their first couple of years neither player could hit the lake from the end of the pier from the field, yet maybe now Darius like Diebler in their third year are starting to hit hit some shots from the field.

talksalot · November 26, 2023, 07:01:06 AM

Quote from: talksalot on November 25, 2023, 07:37:22 PM
@ Virginia Tech (5-1) Wins: Coppin State, Campbell, Wofford, Boise State, Iowa State, Loss: South Carolina
Before Valpo: Auburn, Louisville

and, At noon (CT) on Sunday, VT will be on ESPN in the Championship Game of the "ESPN Invitational" against Florida Atlantic.

historyman · December 08, 2023, 01:45:48 PM

Quote from: talksalot on November 26, 2023, 07:01:06 AM
Quote from: talksalot on November 25, 2023, 07:37:22 PM
@ Virginia Tech (5-1) Wins: Coppin State, Campbell, Wofford, Boise State, Iowa State, Loss: South Carolina
Before Valpo: Auburn, Louisville

and, At noon (CT) on Sunday, VT will be on ESPN in the Championship Game of the "ESPN Invitational" against Florida Atlantic.

Per Virginia Tech website Valpo at Virginia Tech on Saturday December 9 it is 12:00 noon Eastern time (11:00 a.m. CT)

https://hokiesports.com/sports/mens-basketball/schedule

historyman · December 09, 2023, 10:50:58 AM

Current as of December 9, 2023 (before VA Tech game)

Edwards 14.7 points & rebounds UNDER

Palm 5 rebounds UNDER

Barrett 0 for 4 threes (probably be removed) UNDER

Weatherspoon 20 for 59 .339 UNDER

Ajiboye 8 blocks/9 games . 889 UNDER

DeAveiro 45 for 9 games x 31 games = 155 assists (on target for) OVER

Williamson 10 assists / 6 TOs 1.667 OVER

Schweiger 11.8 pts per game OVER

Stafford 18.8 pts per game OVER

Team FGs Attempted 568/9 63.1 OVER

All Newcomer MVC Team TBD

All League Team TBD

Valley Road Victories TBD

Final Standing in Valley TBD

Final Standing in Valley TBD

Total Wins 4 wins, 9 gms 13.778 per 31 gms (before Valley season) OVER

historyman · December 09, 2023, 06:50:23 PM

you know when you have 5 or fewer correct you could have flipped a coin & done just as well.

Yes, folks, if you throw out the Barrett item it's 10 applicable items., I have 4 correct!!! :-(

talksalot · December 20, 2023, 09:45:53 AM

Updating through game #12 - Samford...

Edwards - 15.5 points and rebounds   106+72   14.83   UNDER
Palm - 5.7 rebounds per game   46   4.18   UNDER
Barrett - 0.9 3ptrs per game played   1/3   .33   UNDER
Weatherspoon - 41.6% from the floor   27/77   .377   UNDER
Ajiboye - 1.5 Blocks and Steals/game   10+9   1.58   OVER
DeAveiro -120.5 assists (3.88/GM)   67   5.58   OVER
Williamson - 1.5 assist per turnover   12/6   2.00   OVER
Schweiger - 11.25 points per game   130   10.8   UNDER
Stafford - 16.5 points per game   194   16.2   UNDER
Team Field Goals Attempted 60.5/gm   744   62.00   OVER

There are 10 categories...

Historyman with 8 Missed on DeAveiro and Williamson
ValpoPal with 7 Missed the same two, plus the shots per game
Vu84v2 and Humble Opinion with 6

Merry Christmas to one and all

historyman · December 20, 2023, 12:57:13 PM

Quote from: talksalot on December 20, 2023, 09:45:53 AMHistoryman with 8 Missed on DeAveiro and Williamson

Very happy to be missing on De and Sherm.

valpopal · December 20, 2023, 01:31:04 PM

Quote from: historyman on December 20, 2023, 12:57:13 PM
Quote from: talksalot on December 20, 2023, 09:45:53 AMHistoryman with 8 Missed on DeAveiro and Williamson

Very happy to be missing on De and Sherm.

Same here. I didn't expect DeAveiro to be leading the team with 33 minutes per game to get so many assists, but his increase in scoring has made that possible. Also, Jahari (I think you meant Jahari rather than Sherm) has been very impressive with his discipline to avoid turnovers, especially as a freshman, averaging only 1 turnover every 30 minutes of playing time!