Men's soccer 2011

agibson · October 27, 2011, 01:54:32 PM

Quote from: KL31NY on October 27, 2011, 12:58:01 PM
If I'm reading the standings correctly, the worst we could do is lose out, have Butler win out, and tie for 6th with the Bulldogs gaining the head-to-head tiebreaker in that scenario. So I don't think we've clinched yet, but we are very close.

I agree that the worst we can do is tie for a tournament spot, but I think it's a little more complicated than your analysis. And, I think my earlier analysis was slightly off also.

If Valpo loses out they stay at 13 points. Detroit and Loyola can't make it there, leaving only seven teams. Butler would need to win out to get to 13 points, and for Valpo to possibly miss the tournament.

If Butler wins out, they need to beat Wright State. Then, the best Wright State can do is beat Green Bay, and tie Valpo and Butler at 13.

But, UIC and Milwaukee still need to make it to, or pass, 13 points or Valpo's in the tournament.

Milwaukee needs two wins (winning out) to achieve that: beating UIC, and bringing themselves to 14 points.

Then, the best UIC can do is to get to 13 points.

Which would leave us with Valpo, Butler, Wright State, and UIC all at 13 (otherwise Valpo's in the tournament for sure). So, a four-way tie for 4th.

Green Bay would be at 15, Milwaukee at 14. But, I guess Cleveland State could stay at 13 (or go to 14, or 16). So, it could be a five-way tie for third.

The outcome of this mess probably requires a detailed knowledge of the tiebreakers. I don't see them online.

And, any other outcome seems to guarantee Valpo a tournament spot.

So, needlesss to say, Valpo's almost certainly in the tournament. And, maybe it's even a mathematical certainty.

vu72 · October 27, 2011, 01:56:29 PM

What do we need to do to win the regular season title? The heck with trying to just get into the tourney!

agibson · October 27, 2011, 02:19:11 PM

Two wins (with games against UIC, Butler, Green Bay remaining) and Valpo hosts the conference tournament, number one seed, free and clear.

A win, a draw, and a loss against either UIC or Butler (i.e. the draw or the win against Green Bay), gets them the first seed in the clear.
In general, a win, a draw, and a loss gets Valpo first or second, without any ties.

One more win, even with two losses, gets Valpo at least a share of 2nd place. But maybe only a fourth seed, depending on tie breakers.

A draw, and two losses, still gets Valpo into the tournament - maybe even three losses does.

And, of course, they can get by with less than this with a little help from Green Bay, or others.

valporun · October 27, 2011, 02:26:39 PM

I agree with what vu72 said...let's just win the conference title, then we don't have to worry about what needs to be done to get into the conference tourney. The more time we spend trying to decipher the tiebreakers and standings, the less it takes from us cheering the men's soccer team to the conference title.

agibson · October 27, 2011, 06:02:46 PM

I figure it's more fuel for the fires of fandom. But, yes, by all means, let's win out.

VUfan · October 27, 2011, 06:50:14 PM

So which will it BB with Hillsdale or Soccer with UIC for all the marbles on Saturday?

vu72 · October 27, 2011, 07:16:56 PM

Quote from: VUfan on October 27, 2011, 06:50:14 PM
So which will it BB with Hillsdale or Soccer with UIC for all the marbles on Saturday?

Well, for some unknown reason, the men's game appears to not be on the internet either video or radio.

Very odd. The soccer game will have audio saw I will listen to the soccer game while watching the blog for the basketball game.

I sure hope this is the last game not on video.

agibson · October 27, 2011, 07:23:21 PM

Yeah, I sort of got used to having all home games on video. I guess I wouldn't be too surprised if last year's exhibitions were also no-video.

The Butler soccer game will have video, I believe. And all tournament games.

For me, it's soccer saturday night. With maybe a few minutes of basketball at half time. All this assuming I can get out of the kids' Halloween party in time!

agibson · October 29, 2011, 02:16:17 PM

Looking at the break-down of the standings, and the seeding scenarios is a little like playing fantasy sports: it creates odd cheering patterns.

If Butler managed to lose to Detroit, it would put us in the tournament even before the UIC game starts. But, Butler's up 2-0 at the half. So, probably we need to do it ourselves!

agibson · October 29, 2011, 08:54:38 PM

Whoops! I misread the tweet!

WSU won 2-1!

Valpo's tied 0 0 at end of regulation. A win guarantees at least a share of the HL title!

agibson · October 29, 2011, 08:55:38 PM

A chilly evening at Brown field. Next time: hat and gloves.

agibson · October 29, 2011, 09:08:34 PM

Valpo - your Horizon League soccer champions!*

*guaranteed at least a share of 1st

vu72 · October 29, 2011, 09:17:54 PM

FANTASTIC! GREAT NIGHT FOR VALPO

valpotx · October 29, 2011, 09:47:20 PM

Great first title, congrats men's soccer!!! Reading the box score, we won on an 80 yard free kick that skipped over the GK?

Wow, I would like to see how that looked!

sectionee · October 29, 2011, 10:36:38 PM

The crowd inside the ARC got pretty excited when the announcement was made as we were filing out! Way to go Soccer!

KL31NY · October 29, 2011, 10:44:55 PM

Quote from: valpotx on October 29, 2011, 09:47:20 PM
Great first title, congrats men's soccer!!! Reading the box score, we won on an 80 yard free kick that skipped over the GK? Wow, I would like to see how that looked!

Was running the radio broadcast for WVUR. Our announcer made it sound like someone from either team got a head on it for a misdirection. Talking with him afterwards, he said that the players were bunched so close near the header that it was near impossible to tell who tipped it. I think that, or possibly if it was identified as a UIC touch, is why Smith gets the goal on the free kick.

Congrats to the team and congrats to Smith. First career goal gives Valpo its first HL title. Great timing!

agibson · October 29, 2011, 11:11:53 PM

Quote from: KL31NY on October 29, 2011, 10:44:55 PM
Quote from: valpotx on October 29, 2011, 09:47:20 PM
Great first title, congrats men's soccer!!! Reading the box score, we won on an 80 yard free kick that skipped over the GK? Wow, I would like to see how that looked!

Was running the radio broadcast for WVUR. Our announcer made it sound like someone from either team got a head on it for a misdirection. Talking with him afterwards, he said that the players were bunched so close near the header that it was near impossible to tell who tipped it. I think that, or possibly if it was identified as a UIC touch, is why Smith gets the goal on the free kick.

I'd like to see the video! From the stand it was sort of: free kick, scrum, .... hesitation... ball's in the back of the net! Hurray! No announcement, at the soccer game, about clinching the HL - but a few of the fans seemed to have it figured out. And, apparently, Coach Avery let the players know right after the game.

Chatting with one of the reserves, who might have been field level... he saw about as much as I did.

Chatting with one of the players who was in the scrum: apparently Chad Sult almost got a piece of the free kick. The goalie thought he was going to and.... came out for it? The ball sailed (bounced?) into the net.

Was a bit mysterious from the stand, and I'd love to see the video. I also didn't think it was as far back as 80 yards. I thought it was at about midfield (e.g. the 50 yard line), so about 60 yards out. Anyhow, very long!

Go Valpo!

agibson · October 30, 2011, 02:06:34 PM

So, of course, Valpo's seeding scenarios are now a lot simpler. I assume we hold the tie-breaker over Wright State, since we won head-to-head. We tied with Cleveland State, and I'm not sure what the second tie-breaker is.

If Cleveland State fails to beat bottom-of-the-table Detroit, Valpo holds the conference championship without contest.

If Cleveland State beats Detroit, Valpo needs some kind of result (a win or a draw) against one of its last two opponents: Butler or Green Bay. Or, we need to hold the tie-breaker over Cleveland State (maybe we already do - who knows?).

2nd-6th place are still a real mess.

It would be good to host the tournament (the semi-finals, the finals), for sure. But, probably equally important is to carry some momentum into that tournament. The team definitely wants to go to the NCAA's. Valpo's got a ton of momentum right now - let's add two it with two more results (Wednesday hosting Butler, Saturday at Green Bay) to close the season.

KL31NY · October 30, 2011, 04:30:27 PM

I believe for most sports in the HL that the second tie-breaker is "Best Result." Using VU-CSU as an example, if they tie for first, they next go to the third place team, the highest team remaining after the tie, and see who had a better result against them between the Crusaders and Vikings.

The big issue is that roughly half of the conference can finish in 3rd under this scenario, and there might be a tie or two, so it's too big a headache right now to figure it out. Best to wait after Wednesday, if we even need this discussion by then.

agibson · October 31, 2011, 10:39:22 AM

The media coverage of the men's soccer team's accomplishments has been... mixed. In a local market with a strong coverage of high school soccer (and strong high school sports coverage, generally).

On Sunday, I think the Times skipped the story entirely (but did carry few-sentences capsules for soccer games from Calumet College, etc.). The Post Trib seems to have run the AP few-sentence capsule.

This morning the Times did run a nice piece, starting on front page of Sports, on the men's and women's teams, celebrating the men, and preparing for the women's post-season match-up tomorrow
http://www.nwitimes.com/sports/college/valparaiso-university/article_38705930-9a88-5450-a6fd-4944f9bcf878.html

(Thanks!)

The Post Tribune, by contrast... ran a nice piece on women's bowling successful (and historic) weekend
http://posttrib.suntimes.com/sports/colleges/8512676-419/vu-wins-first-bowling-tourney-in-program-history.html

(Congrats to them! And, I gather, the Post Trib has a significant history of bowling coverage. Fair enough. Hopefully they'll also pick it up on the soccer.)

VUfan · November 02, 2011, 10:00:26 PM

1-1 Valpo Butler first HL title!

vu72 · November 02, 2011, 10:21:24 PM

Congrats indeed!!! Now, hopefully on to our first Horizon NCAA slot!!

valporun · November 02, 2011, 10:28:19 PM

Quote from: vu72 on November 02, 2011, 10:21:24 PM
Congrats indeed!!! Now, hopefully on to our first Horizon NCAA slot!!

It was a great match. I didn't catch all of it, but the defense was strong, minus the missed mark on the Butler goal. I hope the team's attitude and togetherness stays very strong. This is quite the switch in attitude from the men's soccer teams we saw at Valpo, isn't it, valpotx?

valpotx · November 02, 2011, 10:43:19 PM

Congrats on an outright championship! It would be great to get an NCAA bid to boot, but we at least knocked down the first hurdle! Now it is time for our ascension up the conference cup standings, no more second to last or last. Our teams have consistently been middle of the standings in all sports at least, but it is the lack of championships that have made us 9 or 10th in all sports each year since entering.

Definitely an upgrade from when we were in school. I always liked the soccer guys, but they never seemed to be able to do what the Avery coached team has been doing the last few years.

setshot · November 03, 2011, 08:13:32 AM

Feels good. Congratulations and continued success in the HL tournament.

Men's soccer 2011

sectionee