Wake Forest will probably dominate Valpo on the boards.
(EDIT) This game will be on ESPNU.
If our 3 point shooters can get into some kind of groove maybe the Crusaders could pull this game out. Wake Forest is having a pretty poor year for a P5 team.
Game is on ESPNU at 9:30 AM CST (yes - the game is in the morning). Croissants with the Crusaders? Bloody Marys with Matt?
Quote from: vu84v2 on November 16, 2018, 09:48:29 PM
Game is on ESPNU at 9:30 AM CST (yes - the game is in the morning). Croissants with the Crusaders? Bloody Marys with Matt?
Sounds like a fun way to start a Sunday morning. 👍
I really think we have a shot to win this game.
Prediction: Valpo wins 71-68
Western KY knocks off West Virginia 63-57. So we could consider ourselves in 3rd place in the MBI if we can beat Wake Forest.
This also puts us in a position to defeat West Virginia in Morgantown if we can play at the top of our game and go hard at every rebound.
Quote from: bbtds on November 17, 2018, 12:40:39 AM
Western KY knocks off West Virginia 63-57. So we could consider ourselves in 3rd place in the MBI if we can beat Wake Forest.
This also puts us in a position to defeat West Virginia in Morgantown if we can play at the top of our game and go hard at every rebound.
Point taken, but I believe the way the tournament is bracketed that we are playing for 5th place. It does seem odd that 4th place (loser of the "3rd place" game between St. Joe's and WVU) would have a 1-2 record while 5th place (winner in our next game) would have a 2-1 record. A first round loss is tough in this design. Regardless, looking forward to a game with an ACC opponent that we have a chance against. Feels like this game could be a big confidence boost to the group if they come away with a W.
Quote from: VU2014 on November 16, 2018, 10:17:26 PM
I really think we have a shot to win this game.
Prediction: Valpo wins 71-68
I think 2014 may have this right. FWIW, KenPom has it 73-71 in favor of Wake.
ESPN predictor graph had us at 54% chance to win. But we will need the bigs to at least keep their bodies in the game as well as some decent shooting from the rest.
I think expecting to beat or contend well with WVa at their place is a BIG reach.
Quote from: govalpogo on November 17, 2018, 11:23:04 AM
Quote from: bbtds on November 17, 2018, 12:40:39 AM
Western KY knocks off West Virginia 63-57. So we could consider ourselves in 3rd place in the MBI if we can beat Wake Forest.
This also puts us in a position to defeat West Virginia in Morgantown if we can play at the top of our game and go hard at every rebound.
Point taken, but I believe the way the tournament is bracketed that we are playing for 5th place. It does seem odd that 4th place (loser of the "3rd place" game between St. Joe's and WVU) would have a 1-2 record while 5th place (winner in our next game) would have a 2-1 record. A first round loss is tough in this design. Regardless, looking forward to a game with an ACC opponent that we have a chance against. Feels like this game could be a big confidence boost to the group if they come away with a W.
Yes, I'm basically rewriting the MB Invitational rules and saying that the first round should not weigh as heavily as the second and final games. Valpo, in the minds of it's fans should "consider" itself in third place if it beats Wake Forest in this Invitational.
I want to point out that Valpo is a favorite in Vegas over an ACC team. Go Crusaders.
Quote from: oklahomamick on November 18, 2018, 06:43:09 AM
I want to point out that Valpo is a favorite in Vegas over an ACC team. Go Crusaders.
Who has Valpo favored? All the lines I'm seeing are Wake -1.
McMillan needs anti-testosterone treatment. Fouls a guy dribbling at the 3-pt line and then gets in a verbal pointing match with Lavender.
WAY to early to tell, but has he learned to temper his aggression at all since last year. I'm not a fan of his basketball IQ whatsoever. That is his biggest growth opportunity from a fans perspective.
Having problems with length again today...
Boy I really hope Sorolla has improved and will be 100% by conference. Otherwise we're going to lose every conference game we shoot below 40% from 3.
"Oh looky here. What's this behind my ear? Oh, looky it's the basketball. What am I supposed to do with this?"
The trials of John Kiser and his problems controlling the basketball while loosely guarded.
Great hustle by Fazekas. Stole a point or two before half.
Scratch that, four.
Nice play to end the half. Fouls are at least evening up.
First game I have been able to watch this season. A few observations over these few last seasons.
Lottich coaching style:
1) Make no investment in individual player development
2) Do not use ball movement. Rely on individual circus shots and hope they go in.
3) ignore the concept of team basketball and how every succesful Valpo team in the past share the basketball.
4) Live and die by the 3 ball because why drive to the basket.
5) never learn from previous mistakes.
6) Energized defending and rebounding is optional.
7) No need to work on free throws, why bother. Obviously too overwhelmed with neglecting other aspects of coaching.
Disclaimer for the Lottich apologists: yes this is critical. Yes it is unfair because I am a fan who is not directly involved in the program. Yes he has had a rough start to his tenure and has had a lot of bad luck. Just observations of how the Valpo program has changed over the past few years.
At halftime the official boxscore shows the disparity in points off turnovers and second chance points is 17-2 in favor of Wake Forest. (Valpo's two points only came with the foul on Fazekas at the end of the half. For some reason, McMillan's dunk at the buzzer was not credited as points off turnover.) Those are 15 gift points!
Thought that calling the rebounding foul against Fazekas as flagrant was wrong - but Valpo will take it. Huge four point play.
Valpo looked good at the beginning because the ball was moving and it opened up the offense. Given the terrible stretch on offense (lots of bad possessions) and getting killed inside, Valpo fortunate to be down 3. Can win this game if they play defense and block out like they did in the last four minutes.
Turnovers should get better as the season progresses, but I'm concerned with Smits and Lavender TO. I think in the Monmouth win the pair had (9) TO between the two alone.
Credit Smits with a terrific game against good D-1 big man competition (not Concordia) and hope this is his turning point toward consistently being the player he has always had potential to become.
Why is Golder sitting so much? He has a good FG% and rebounds with intensity. Why is Bakari taking threes when the game is on the line? Bakari made exactly one FG all game.
The team shot under 30% (21.1%) for 3ptrs - again. Zeke still not hitting for %age. Wake hit over 40%.
Smitts came up with 7 RBs to go along with 23 pts.
And fifth, third---not the bank---place slips through the Crusaders' fingers.
Think Smits played about as well as he can today. Managed to get some shots to fall and didn't foul out. Hope he gives this kind of effort every game.
Still, giving up second chance points and not hitting 3s will be the death of this team. Cut the second chance points in half, we win. Shoot a decent percentage from 3, we win.
Good job by Smits....
Is VU just a bad shooting team? Bakari certainly hasn't found any kind of consistent shot. Maybe time to swap him and Golder in the lineup.
Can't lose both the rebounding battle and the 3 point shooting battle and expect to win very often.
Quote from: VULB#62 on November 18, 2018, 11:35:50 AM
Why is Golder sitting so much? He has a good FG% and rebounds with intensity. Why is Bakari taking threes when the game is on the line? Bakari made one FG all game.
I'm baffled by this as well. Golder became Valpo's best player after struggling to find playing time last year, and this year he again isn't starting, while Bakari and Fazekas have brought nothing to the lineup. Golder is forced to play along side Kiser and McMillan, so he's not getting ANY opportunities in transition.
Marcus should be averaging 20+ minutes a game off the bench. He had, what, 17 today and was not on the floor at all in crunch time when the team needed speed, skill, rebounding and accurate shooting.
Quote from: valpopal on November 18, 2018, 11:34:55 AM
Credit Smits with a terrific game against good D-1 big man competition (not Concordia) and hope this is his turning point toward consistently being the player he has always had potential to become.
Obviously Wake decided to pressure our outside shooting and gave Derrik one on one coverage and plenty of room to operate. With this opportunity he showed some of his potential on offense.
Quote from: VUME on November 18, 2018, 10:28:40 AM4) Live and die by the 3 ball because why drive to the basket.
This was kind of a chess match. Wake gave us the option to feed an open Smits or drive and dish against the tight outside coverage. Matt seemed to make the choice of giving Derrik the ball and the opportunity to carry the team. Yes he played very well but the scoreboard shows that we still lost. Longer term I like this approach.
If Sorolla had been available and if McMillan was just a touch further along with his development then this game would have again offered us the opportunity to play some minutes with Fazekas at the 3.
Our play at Myrtle Beach really has me excited to see what the Crusaders can do in Feb and March. I can already see where and how some of our improvements can come. I am going to continue to be very patient while we fumble along thru November.
Quote from: VULB#62 on November 18, 2018, 11:35:50 AM
Why is Golder sitting so much? He has a good FG% and rebounds with intensity. Why is Bakari taking threes when the game is on the line? Bakari made exactly one FG all game.
The team shot under 30% (21.1%) for 3ptrs - again. Zeke still not hitting for %age. Wake hit over 40%.
Smitts came up with 7 RBs to go along with 23 pts.
I am a bit disappointed with Bakari's selfish early shot clock hoists from deep. The problem we have is that he's as close to a team leader as we have, right? Or who?
How do we take a leader off the court in a game where we are consistently playing from behind?
Honestly our best lineup is probably
Lavender
Freeman
Golder
Fazekas
Smits (sub Sorolla)
In that lineup we only have 2 guys that can actually dribble drive or distribute though and that's a problem playing from behind.
Golder might be seeing less minutes because he doesn't have strong handles?
Bakari looks lost on offense. We sure do handle the ball well...AT NEAR THE MID COURT LINE!!!! Will we have ANY 3-point shooters this year?
If we can shoot the ball and rebound just a little better this team can and should win a lot of games. I know it gets harder and harder to discuss and take moral victories but I'm very encouraged by what I saw today. The second half defense was stellar and the crunch time offense was great until the last 30 seconds. Too many little plays (missed layups missed rebounds threes that rattled out turnovers) went against us while Wake Forest hit some tough shots down the stretch. We could also stand to get a little better on rotations\closeouts but that wasn't the big story today.
Bakari and Golder are better players than they showed today. They will improve. Golder needs more PT
Fazekas is a better shooter than he's shown so far. This was just his fourth game back from sickness\injury that essentially sapped him of two years. By conference time he should be close to becoming the player we all think he can be.
Javon looks great. I expect big things from him.
Nobody can stay with Sackey. Once he harnesses that speed and plays more under control he will be a force.
Smits was our second half offense and had a great game. But he has got to get better on defense and on the glass (though this was actually one of his better rebounding games) we all know he can score in bunches.
Lavender played well. He hit some big shots to keep us in it and generally made good decisions with the ball.
I love Kiser's heart hustle grit effort toughness rebounding and defense but I'm honestly good if I never saw him play another minute. We have guys that can play the same level of defense but who can actually contribute something on offense. Maybe I'm being too hard on him but I view him as a net negative when he's on the floor. That said there's a lot to be said about the intangibles he brings and I honestly think the team might lose something if he were to be completely phased out. I like him a lot I just don't know if he brings enough to the table. Very conflicting player for me.
I think the new muscle has affected McMillan's shot. It looks really flat and I don't remember it looking that bad last year. I'm good with him not shooting any more threes until his shot adjusts to his new muscle. We need him to be a force inside anyway. The shooting and ball handling are just a bonus. Until that shot improves and can be safely relied upon, he is best utilized as a post player. That said I firmly believe that his shot will come around and once it does he will be an absolute nightmare for opposing bigs to guard.
This team fought like hell against a more talented team with multiple top 100 recruits on its roster. They have nothing whatsoever to be ashamed of. With a few improvements this team will win a lot of games. This is not a bottom tier MVC team. They may not be a top contender this year (maybe they could be nobody's really separated themselves yet) but they will be a factor in the race this year and will make life difficult for opposing teams all season. Say what you will of Lottich's shortcomings but his teams fight scrap and battle on defense like few others. I just hope that eventually (hopefully very soon) all this effort translates to results for their sake so that they have unassailable tangible objective proof of the strides they are making that we can all see as we watch this team grow. I believe that those results are coming soon. As much as delving into moral victories sucks and can get tiresome I'm encouraged by what I've seen so far and I hope you are too. Brighter days and better seasons are ahead of us. Keep the faith and as always Go Valpo!
I thought Golder not playing at the end could have been the difference. He brings energy and can hit a three. Also could have used Jay again for defense.
Quote from: VUME on November 18, 2018, 10:28:40 AM
First game I have been able to watch this season. A few observations over these few last seasons.
Lottich coaching style:
1) Make no investment in individual player development
2) Do not use ball movement. Rely on individual circus shots and hope they go in.
3) ignore the concept of team basketball and how every succesful Valpo team in the past share the basketball.
4) Live and die by the 3 ball because why drive to the basket.
5) never learn from previous mistakes.
6) Energized defending and rebounding is optional.
7) No need to work on free throws, why bother. Obviously too overwhelmed with neglecting other aspects of coaching.
Disclaimer for the Lottich apologists: yes this is critical. Yes it is unfair because I am a fan who is not directly involved in the program. Yes he has had a rough start to his tenure and has had a lot of bad luck. Just observations of how the Valpo program has changed over the past few years.
I think you were watching a different team. Thanks for posting though.
In summary, I thought Myrtle Beach was a very good performance. Considering our poor shooting and lack of rebounding, I would have predicted blowouts. When Sorolla returns we will have a bit more defense in the middle.
We won a game and we kept both of the losses close vs. an ACC team and the favorite to win the American conference (WKY).
I'll take it!
Quote from: vu84v2 on November 18, 2018, 10:31:03 AM
Thought that calling the rebounding foul against Fazekas as flagrant was wrong - but Valpo will take it. Huge four point play.
Valpo looked good at the beginning because the ball was moving and it opened up the offense. Given the terrible stretch on offense (lots of bad possessions) and getting killed inside, Valpo fortunate to be down 3. Can win this game if they play defense and block out like they did in the last four minutes.
I thought that the Fazekas call was right on, per the rule that the announcers were talking about. Fazekas was camped under the rebound, not even having to box anyone out, and the WF player undercut him on the way down. He wasn't making a play on the ball at all.
The opposite call against Valpo was complete crap. It was a general foul, but not the same as the Fazekas situation, as they tried to make it out to be. We were actively boxing the guy out to get the rebound, when the WF player tried to jump over/around Lavender. Lavender WAS trying to make a play on the ball by boxing out. Power 5 pressure on that one to also call it a flagrant.
Quote from: valpotx on November 18, 2018, 04:13:36 PM
Quote from: vu84v2 on November 18, 2018, 10:31:03 AM
Thought that calling the rebounding foul against Fazekas as flagrant was wrong - but Valpo will take it. Huge four point play.
Valpo looked good at the beginning because the ball was moving and it opened up the offense. Given the terrible stretch on offense (lots of bad possessions) and getting killed inside, Valpo fortunate to be down 3. Can win this game if they play defense and block out like they did in the last four minutes.
I thought that the Fazekas call was right on, per the rule that the announcers were talking about. Fazekas was camped under the rebound, not even having to box anyone out, and the WF player undercut him on the way down. He wasn't making a play on the ball at all.
The opposite call against Valpo was complete crap. It was a general foul, but not the same as the Fazekas situation, as they tried to make it out to be. We were actively boxing the guy out to get the rebound, when the WF player tried to jump over/around Lavender. Lavender WAS trying to make a play on the ball by boxing out. Power 5 pressure on that one to also call it a flagrant.
Even so the game was lost when we fouled the shooter on the four point play that doubled their lead. That or when Valpo committed that boneheaded foul when they had the guy dead to rights for a ten second violation
Was Bradford unavailable or is he still hurting (or just that far in the doghouse or down the depth chart)? I know he's just as streaky a shooter as anyone else we got.
Quote from: M on November 18, 2018, 05:27:49 PMWas Bradford unavailable or is he still hurting (or just that far in the doghouse or down the depth chart)?
Just a guess but he looked not to be 100% and there seems to be no pressing need to hurry his full return. Lavender has already shown me that a full strength Micah will be facing more bench time than I had imagined. If Bradford is physically ready I would look for Matt to give him some significant playing time vs SIUE. Whenever you have 2 players redshirting everybody else needs to be healthy.
Just my observation but I thought Micah was moving around a little bit stiff as he walked up and down by the bench.
Definitely not moving fast, but being on the bench there was no need to hurry. Will find out soon enough.
Quote from: VUGrad1314 on November 18, 2018, 02:02:52 PMI think the new muscle has affected McMillan's shot. It looks really flat and I don't remember it looking that bad last year. I'm good with him not shooting any more threes until his shot adjusts to his new muscle. We need him to be a force inside anyway. The shooting and ball handling are just a bonus. Until that shot improves and can be safely relied upon, he is best utilized as a post player. That said I firmly believe that his shot will come around and once it does he will be an absolute nightmare for opposing bigs to guard.
One huge hole that you left out about Mileek is his unnecessary fouling which knocks him out of the game. We need him in the game longer. Playing aggressively with 3 fouls in the first half just can't happen anymore. It's such foolish and plain stupid play. I do believe Mileek can become an absolute nightmare for opposing bigs to guard but if it's only for a few minutes in the first half it means very little to the team.
BTW, Mileek isn't shooting any worse than Fazekas (1 for 5) and Evelyn (1 for 7) from three. He just wasn't in the game long enough to get more 3 point shots. No one for Valpo hit more than one three pointer.
Quote from: crusadermoe on November 18, 2018, 03:04:19 PMWe won a game and we kept both of the losses close vs. an ACC team and the favorite to win the American conference (WKY).
WKY is picked to win CUSA, rather than the American.
I don't know much about these box out rules, etc. but my read on the situation was very similar to what valpotx is saying.
https://www.valpofanzone.com/forum/index.php?topic=3277.msg105811#msg105811
On the Fazekas play it didn't seem like a conventional box out at all - the Wake player slid in late, undercutting him. The commentator's analysis of that play seemed off base, almost like they were talking about another Wake player and a conventional box out.
The flagrant on Lavender was ridiculous. He had position on his man, was boxing him out cleanly when the player went airborne over his back and the refs decided to let the Wake bench make the call for them. If that's the new rule, then getting good position for a rebound no longer has value if the opponent can just initiate contact, flip over your back and get a flagrant call.
I didn't see it. But if he went over Lavender's back trying for a rebound, it should have gone the other way and Lavender should have been at the line.
https://twitter.com/nwipreps/status/1064378605105491968
Quote from: VU2014 on November 20, 2018, 07:00:30 PM
https://twitter.com/nwipreps/status/1064378605105491968
Western Kentucky would have been far more of a "marquee" win than Wake Forest, and I don't know if I would have classified either of them as a marquee win for Valpo.
Quote from: IrishDawg on November 20, 2018, 07:39:53 PMWestern Kentucky would have been far more of a "marquee" win than Wake Forest, and I don't know if I would have classified either of them as a marquee win for Valpo.
If we can define "marquee" as an at-large or better opponent then I would have to agree. By that measure we may not even have a marquee opponent on our schedule. WKU has a long shot chance to reach this status after they regain their point guard at semester break.
They have some good recruits, but will probably win 4 games in the ACC this year. Similar to the Nebraska game a few years ago, this was a prime chance to take out a P5 program
Quote from: justducky on November 20, 2018, 08:06:46 PM
Quote from: IrishDawg on November 20, 2018, 07:39:53 PMWestern Kentucky would have been far more of a "marquee" win than Wake Forest, and I don't know if I would have classified either of them as a marquee win for Valpo.
If we can define "marquee" as an at-large or better opponent then I would have to agree. By that measure we may not even have a marquee opponent on our schedule. WKU has a long shot chance to reach this status after they regain their point guard at semester break.
Wake has six four star players and a five star. They have size and experience.
Quote from: VU2014 on November 20, 2018, 07:00:30 PM
https://twitter.com/nwipreps/status/1064378605105491968
You can't complain about mid majors not getting respect if crappy programs like Wake Forest are elevated to "marquee" status for simply existing in a conference. They've had 3 winning seasons in the past 10 years with 2 tournament appearances, so perhaps Wake Forest picked up a marquee win over Valpo as well.
It's one thing for mid majors to fight for respectability amongst the national media and fans of power conference teams... but many mid major fans seem to have an inferiority complex that elevates a team like Wake Forest over a quality mid major like WKU. This continues throughout the year until Selection Sunday, where everyone cries for the disrespected mid majors. Even then, we hear odd narratives like "Monmouth beat several P5 teams like Rutgers."
Any time you can get a win over ACC team it's an accomplishment in my book.
Quote from: VU2014 on November 21, 2018, 04:58:45 PM
Any time you can get a win over ACC team it's an accomplishment in my book.
BINGO
This sure makes me feel a heck of a lot worse about not taking care of business against Wake Forest down in Myrtle Beach.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore?gameId=401082720
Quote from: VUGrad1314 on November 23, 2018, 10:06:25 PM
This sure makes me feel a heck of a lot worse about not taking care of business against Wake Forest down in Myrtle Beach.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore?gameId=401082720
Valpo hangover.
Quote from: VU2014 on November 21, 2018, 04:58:45 PM
Any time you can get a win over ACC team it's an accomplishment in my book.
Should have scheduled Pitt last year.