WHERE WE'RE AT: 5-2, obv.
WHADDATHEY THINK ABOUT THAT?
RealTimeRPI: 159th (of 347 D-I) http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_Men.html (http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_Men.html)
RPIForecast: 153rd http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Valparaiso.html (http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Valparaiso.html)
BUT WHAT DOES JEFF SAGARIN THINK?
89th with a rating of 78.
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt1213.htm (http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt1213.htm)
Let's average the 3 and come up with 133rd for right now.
WHERE THEY THINK WE'LL END UP?
RealTimeRPI: 23-6, (9-4 out-of conf; 14-2 Horizon)
RPIForecast: 84th with a record of 19-10 (9-4 OOC; 11-5 Horizon; if you just crunched the numbers and came out with a record of 20-9, well, that's math for you)
OK, BUT WHAT ABOUT STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE? Do you mind not yelling so much?
OK. I mean, ok. How's this? Much better, thanks.
SOS... So far:
308 (RealTimeRPI) ... at the top of the bottom eighth!
310 (RPIForecast)
316 (Sagarin)
WOW. I mean like, wow. Well, it gets a little better; RPIForecast thinks SOS will end up 189...
But... ...it's kind of not great when considering our OOC schedule strength...predicted to end up at 298. I mean, who predicted that we would really really need the two games against UIC to improve our RPI?
THE LOOK BACK: We lost to the two best teams we played, obv.
St. Louis (30th/RTR; 30th/RPIF; 50/Sag--average 37th) and
N------a (76th/RTR; 74th/RPIF; 128/Sag--average 93rd)
While we beat everyone else, they fall into two groups:
A Decent Win
Kent State (163rd/RTR; 136th/RPIF; 137th/Sag--average 145)
&
Pretty Much Dreck (all RTR...lacked heart/stomach to look all 3 up for each)
GA Southern (259)
Bethune-Cook (292)
Northern Ill (293)
Chicago St (328...dear God.)
Where do the upcoming teams this month fall, RPI-wise? All RTR:
IPFW (264)
New Mex (3)
Missouri St (314...ouch)
Oakland (194)
IUPUI (318...yowza)
Murray St (26)
What do they think will happen? 9-4.
IPFW: W 81-56 (RTR); Sag: VU by 17
UNM: L 68-83 (RTR); Sag: UNM by 10
MSU: W 72-68 (RTR); Sag: VU by 8
OAK: W 72-71 (RTR); Sag: VU by 1
IUPUI: W 80-57 (RTR); Sag: VU by 17
MSU2: L 74-88 (RTR); Sag: MSU by 7
Wow. That was thorough. As Joe Friday used to say,...."Just the facts, mam."
In a nutshell, we have a great opportunity to win the Horizon and the bid, which is really the goal anyway. Our seed won't go up beyond #14. We can't raise it but we can drop to 15 or 16 with a couple of horrific losses.
Quote from: crusadermoe on December 03, 2012, 05:27:25 PM
Our seed won't go up beyond #14. We can't raise it but we can drop to 15 or 16 with a couple of horrific losses.
Dear God, I hope not.
Let's say RPIForecast is right and we end up in the Dance with an RPI of around 84.
Last year that would have been good enough for ... well, crap. A 14 seed.
For someone who hates any made-up "-ology" word, especially one that begins with "bracket", I'm still going to put this in there--it seems obvious but each seed up is a big difference historically (if we could get to 13, then we're the same boat as '98):
Upset %:16-seed: 0%
15-seed: 5.4%
14-seed:14.3%
13-seed:21.4%
12-seed:31.1%
Won't bother going higher. Gosh, if we could beat UNM and (the good) MSU...
Ok...you're right. I am just frustrated by the Nebraska game still. We won't drop to #15 or lower unless we really blow some easy ones. I'm getting queasy seeing some offensive breakdowns that looked like 2004. We got a bid but lost to a #16 seed and Gonzaga match up. I still have that T-shirt with 2004 brackets.
On the up side, a win vs. Murray State could elevate us to a #13 if we win the Horizon bid with 4 or fewer conf. losses.
Two good thoughts went through my mind yesterday: 1) I think the 1998 team lost to a SLU team in January that was not even near as good as this SLU team. They still got hot late and we all know that story.
2) ESPN radio yesterday said that Rick Majerus was so respected for defensive shemes that some NBA scouts picked the SLU game to watch an NBA prospect from U. South Carolinea-Upstate play vs. SLU. If Valpo hit a brick wall on offense against SLU, maybe that was a key element? We just couldn't penetrate or get a decent shot. Their athletes seem not all to be top 50 team athletes but they play up to that level.
I'll just say this...unless Valpo beats New Mexico or Murray State...who exactly would the best win be? Unless they beat one of those teams OR there are a tremendous amount of upsets in conference tourneys, Valpo won't get any higher than a 15 seed. Quality wins matter, and to this point VU doesn't have, well, any.
I think both of you are missing my point.
Moe, I wanted to disagree with you about #14 seed, but I found that going 19-10 and ending up ca. 84 RPI (as RPIForecast has us going) would be good for only that in an average year. I wanted to prove you wrong, but as of now, actually think you are right.
Milan, you can be pessimistic all you like, but we can lose to UNM and MSU, and still lose 5-6 games in conference, and get a 14-seed. I don't think we lose 5-6 in-conference...do you?
Remember: the lowest 14-seed still has 10 teams worse than it; RTR has us 14th by power rating and 21st by RPI. Even if the RPI only improved somewhat, that's still odds-on to have a good ten teams worse than we.
Basically all these stats boil down to a more-or-less circular argument: we are better than the teams that we beat because we beat them, and we are worse than the teams that we lost to because we lost to them. If we win the games we are supposed to, and lose those we are also supposed to, then according to Sagarin at least, we'll lose 2 conference games (at UIC, at Detroit) as well as the 2 tough non-con. Thus, we'd be 25-6, plus BracketBuster and at least one if not two conf tourney games. I don't know that 27-7 with really no win to hang our hat on at the end of the day (unless BB would be) would be good enough should we lose out. If we win and get the bid, we're 28-6.
If you've filled out a bracket, when was the last time a mid-major--or heck, even a low-major--got a 15 seed with that record?
Well let's look.
2 14s last year were 27-7.
In 2011, Long Island got a 15 with a 27-5 as a low major champ (the Northeast conf).
In 2010, most similar: Oakland, as Summit champ, and a 26-8 record, still got a 14 seed.
Show of hands: who really thinks we're better off back in the Summit?
(To underscore how much of a fluid argument this is, 18 hours or so after I started this thread we are now up to 85th in Sagarin with a 78.48 rating. This is why us Bills fans love bye weeks--we can't lose!)
Quote from: crusadermoe on December 04, 2012, 09:44:54 AMESPN radio yesterday said that Rick Majerus was so respected for defensive shemes that some NBA scouts picked the SLU game to watch an NBA prospect from U. South Carolinea-Upstate play vs. SLU.
Torrey Craig?
I didn't catch the name of the prospect, but I know I heard the Majerus portion correctly.
WHERE WE'RE AT: 6-3, obv.
WHADDATHEY THINK ABOUT THAT?
RealTimeRPI: 132nd (of 347 D-I) http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_Men.html (http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_Men.html) UP 27!!!
RPIForecast: 97th http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Valparaiso.html (http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Valparaiso.html) UP 56!!!
Sagarin: 96th with a rating of 77.64 (tied with the Arizona State Fightin' Edwards). down 7.
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt1213.htm (http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt1213.htm)
Average the 3 and come up with 108th, or UP 25 places despite all the hand-wringing going on here..
WHERE THEY THINK WE'LL END UP?
RealTimeRPI: 21-8, (9-4 out-of conf; 12-4 Horizon) two more losses than last time :(
RPIForecast: 19-10 (9-4 OOC; 11-5 Horizon; if you just crunched the numbers and came out with a record of 20-9, well, that's math for you) same as last time
WHAT ABOUT STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE?
245 (RealTimeRPI) up 63 slots!
245 (RPIForecast) up 65 slots!
293 (Sagarin) up 23 slots
Average of 261, or UP 50 slots
BONUS RPI FORECAST FACT: We have an 0.09% chance of running the table or only losing one more game!
% of a win this week:
MSU 79%
Oakland 58%
IUPUI 93%
I'll add that the average RPI of the teams that Valpo beat is 277 and they have a combined record of 14-36.
The real question is not the back/forward of VU, but now of UIC. The Flames are climbing. The HL will be no cakewalk, with 11-5 possibly winning, and 7 or 8 teams with 7 or more wins.
Sigh. Apparently I spend a lot of time on this board giving people information in which they have interest at a rate equivalent to what their savings account is currently earning, so now that someone has expressed an interest, the least I can do is...
KNOW THINE ENEMY: UIC
WHERE THEY'RE AT: 8-1.
WHADDATHEY THINK ABOUT THAT?
RealTimeRPI: 31st (of 347 D-I) http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_Men.html (http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_Men.html) (VU 132)
RPIForecast: 31st; expected finish 76th http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Illinois%20Chicago.html (http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Illinois%20Chicago.html) (VU 123 current; expected finish 97)
Sagarin: 90th with a rating of 77.98 http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt1213.htm (http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt1213.htm) (VU 96)
Average the 3 and come up with 51st.
WHERE THEY THINK THEY'LL END UP?
RealTimeRPI: 16-12, (8-4 out-of conf; 8-8 Horizon)
RPIForecast: 20-8 (10-2 OOC; 10-6 Horizon)
WHAT ABOUT STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE?
105 (RealTimeRPI) (VU 245)
108 expected finish 156 (RPIForecast) (VU 245; expected finish 203)
163 (Sagarin) (VU 293)
Average SOS 125 (VU avg. 261)
BONUS RPI FORECAST FACT: They have an 0.6% chance of running the table or only losing one more game! (six times higher than our chance)
CURRENT PREDICTIONS OF A FLAMING-CRUSADER BATTLE
RealTimeRPI:
@ UIC 67-71 L :(
@ VU 76-63 W :)
RPIForecast:
@ UIC UIC favored by 3; VU 40% chance of win
@ VU VU favored by 4+; VU 64% chance of win
TAKEAWAYS
UIC has a bit of a tough row to hoe to end their non-con:
--EMU (who recently beat Purdue, but maybe that says more about the defeated than the defeatee; 79% win prob)
--@ WIU (54% win prob)
--@ Miami (not that miami, the Roethlisberger Memorial one; 72% win prob)
--@ Toledo (51% win prob)
There's only a 15.6% chance of running that table, by my calc; a 30.7% of a 3-1 record.
Cue that awkward non-con feeling of rooting like a banshee in a game you'd otherwise care nothing about either godforsaken team except that one of these two teams will later play the team you actually care about at which time you will hope we bash their face with a VUPD billy club but right now you REALLY REALLY hope they beat this other team with said club instead.
Quote from: covufan on December 11, 2012, 12:54:21 PM
The HL will be no cakewalk, with 11-5 possibly winning, and 7 or 8 teams with 7 or more wins.
Including Green Bay, if they ever decide to wake up.
Quote from: covufan on December 11, 2012, 12:54:21 PMThe HL will be no cakewalk, with 11-5 possibly winning
RPIForecast EXPECTED HORIZON LEAGUE RESULTS as of 12/11Valpo 10-6
UIC 10-6
Detroit 9-7
YSU 9-7
CSU 8-8
WSU 8-8
Loyola 7-9
WGB 7-9
Milw 4-12
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on December 11, 2012, 01:44:50 PM
Quote from: covufan on December 11, 2012, 12:54:21 PMThe HL will be no cakewalk, with 11-5 possibly winning
RPIForecast EXPECTED HORIZON LEAGUE RESULTS as of 12/11
Valpo 10-6
UIC 10-6
Detroit 9-7
YSU 9-7
CSU 8-8
WSU 8-8
Loyola 7-9
WGB 7-9
Milw 4-12
There will be many HL games decided in the late minutes, either at the line or a long three.
Quote from: covufan on December 11, 2012, 01:49:15 PMThere will be many HL games decided in the late minutes, either at the line or a long three.
All right this is the last thing i'm doing today then i swear. gah.
FT%UIC 76.7%
WGB 75.9
VU 74.9Loyola 73.2
CSU 72.3
Detroit 71.8
YSU 69.3
WSU 67.8
Milw 65.7
3P%VU 38.3%CSU 37.6
Loyola 37
Detroit 36.2
UIC 36.2
WSU 35
Milw 30.3
YSU 30.2
WGB 28.2
BONUS ADJUSTED FG%VU 53.1%WSU 52.4
CSU 51
Loyola 50.5
Detroit 49.5
YSU 48.7
UIC 45.7
WGB 44.8
Milw 44.1
ADVANTAGE VALPO
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on December 11, 2012, 02:01:29 PMAll right this is the last thing i'm doing today then i swear. gah.
A little early to finish, then swear, isn't it?
:o
Quote from: covufan on December 11, 2012, 02:36:18 PMA little early to finish, then swear, isn't it?
:)
Been a long day and I have made it longer on myself :/
oh well all in the name of VU
Not that it means much except as a source for fun speculation and spirited discussion, but Joe Lunardi now predicts Valpo to make the NCAA tournament as a #14 seed:
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology)
A Horizon League reunion in the Elite 8 :thumbsup:
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on December 11, 2012, 02:01:29 PM
Quote from: covufan on December 11, 2012, 01:49:15 PMThere will be many HL games decided in the late minutes, either at the line or a long three.
All right this is the last thing i'm doing today then i swear. gah.
FT%
UIC 76.7%
WGB 75.9
VU 74.9
Loyola 73.2
CSU 72.3
Detroit 71.8
YSU 69.3
WSU 67.8
Milw 65.7
3P%
VU 38.3%
CSU 37.6
Loyola 37
Detroit 36.2
UIC 36.2
WSU 35
Milw 30.3
YSU 30.2
WGB 28.2
BONUS ADJUSTED FG%
VU 53.1%
WSU 52.4
CSU 51
Loyola 50.5
Detroit 49.5
YSU 48.7
UIC 45.7
WGB 44.8
Milw 44.1
ADVANTAGE VALPO
Thanks for the stats. I like our chances at the end of games. At 38% 3-pt shooting, maybe we should step out and take 3-4 more shots a game?
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on December 11, 2012, 02:01:29 PMBONUS ADJUSTED FG%
VU 53.1%
WSU 52.4
CSU 51
Loyola 50.5
Detroit 49.5
YSU 48.7
UIC 45.7
WGB 44.8
Milw 44.1
ADVANTAGE VALPO
OK, what is our defensive adjusted FG%?
Thanks!
man, we play us some pretty good defense in this here conference...
Nat'l Conf EFFG% School
6 1 39.2 UIC
51 2 43.3 Youngstown State
73 3 44.3 Valparaiso
114 4 45.6 Wright State
146 5 46.6 Loyola (Chicago)
153 6 46.9 Milwaukee
245 7 49.9 Cleveland State
273 8 50.8 Green Bay
300 9 52.1 Detroit
Was going to wait until after today to update this, then realized a) we're going to win handily and b) even if we don't it doesn't matter because it won't affect RPI. SO.
WHERE WE'RE AT: 9-4, obv, tempting fate. 8-4 to the eyes of RPI. (can we start pronouncing it "rippy"? that'd be cool)
WHADDATHEY THINK ABOUT THAT?
RealTimeRPI: 176th (of 347 D-I) http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_281_Men.html (http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_281_Men.html) down 44
RPIForecast: 174th http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Valparaiso.html (http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Valparaiso.html) down 77
Sagarin: 111th with a rating of 76.69 http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt1213.htm (http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt1213.htm) down 15
Average the 3 and come up with 154th, or down 46 places.
WHAT ABOUT STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE? ye gods.
318 (RealTimeRPI) down 73
331 (RPIForecast) down 86
330 (Sagarin) down 36
Average of 326, or down 65 slots. Can't fall any further, can it? There are only 347 D-1 teams. Also, $0.10 for every reference you can find in past internet articles to our non-con as "brutal". Yeah, looks like a veritable gauntlet now, don't it?
WHERE THEY THINK WE'LL END UP?
RealTimeRPI: 18-11, (8-5 out-of conf; 10-6 Horizon) three more losses than last time
RPIForecast: same as above one more loss than last time
RPIForecast further projects an end-season RPI of 121 and SOS of 203.
BONUS RPI FORECAST FACT: We have an 0.11% chance of running the table or only losing one more game! (up .02%!)
% of a win next week:
MSU 25%
All stats from rpiforecast.com and live-rpi.com, as of 8:30 AM EST 12/31/12.
Milwaukee
Record: 4-10
But really: 2-10
RPI: 333 (There are 347 D1 teams.)
OOC RPI: 335
SOS: 284
OOC SOS: 288
Signature win: vs. #90 Davidson, 73-68
Oh so close: L vs. #235 South Carolina, 82-75, OT (USC currently ranked behind #234 South Carolina Upstate, no fakies).
How did they manage to lose to: eh, let's face it...they are so bad, no loss could be considered an upset.
Bonus RPIForecast fact: UWM is given a 31% chance of beating CSU at home. In no other game are they given even so much as a 1-in-4 shot.
Thing they are like: Your son's 5th grade basketball team, with a couple more tats and facial hairs.
Green Bay
Record: 6-7
But really: 5-7
RPI: 220
OOC RPI: 223
SOS: 209
OOC SOS: 222
Signature win: vs. #75 Marquette, 49-47.
Oh so close: L @ #190 Nevada, 71-69.
How did they manage to lose to: @ #238 Tennesee Tech, 74-68.
Bonus RPIForecast fact: There is a greater chance that they win only one more game the rest of the way (0.05%) than that they lose only two more games (0.04%).
Thing they are like: Women drivers (not so good on the road).
Cleveland St.
Record: 8-5
But really: 5-5
RPI: 131
OOC RPI: 132
SOS: 147
OOC SOS: 160
Signature win: can they get credit for playing a tough schedule? (ED: no).
Oh so close: Um...they haven't lost by fewer than 9. So. There's that.
How did they manage to lose to: they haven't lost to anyone with a lower RPI. So there's also that.
Bonus RPIForecast fact: They are at 131 but expected to be 201 when conference dust settles.
Thing they are like: A lawyer for the NHL owners/players. (Seriously, who negotiates for games with Rio [pronounced "rye-oh"] Grande, Notre Dame College [Euclid, OH], and Alabama-Huntsville? I mean besides Wittenberg.)
Youngstown St.
Record: 8-5
But really: 5-5
RPI: 178
OOC RPI: 180
SOS: 244
OOC SOS: 252
Signature win: @ #237 Georgia, 68-56. Hey, the name has to be good for something, right?
Oh so close: L to #43 NDSU, 83-80 (neutral site)
How did they manage to lose to: #216 James Madison
Bonus RPIForecast fact: I stopped caring about them a couple entries ago.
Thing they are like: Moo goo gai pan, generally pleasant and non-offensive. Except you meant to tell the girl "moo shu pork", so you're actually really disappointed.
Detroit
Record: 8-5
But really: 6-5
RPI: 89
OOC RPI: 88
SOS: 83
OOC SOS: 91
Signature win: vs. #93 Akron, 80-73
Oh so close: L @ #103 St. John's, 77-74
How did they lose to: @ #303 Bowling Green, 70-65. Ye gods.
Bonus RPIForecast fact: Coach Ray McCallum's son, Ray Jr., plays for the Titans. What, you knew that already? Oh. Well, I never claimed they were new facts.
Thing they are like: A nominally Catholic school with an overly-inflated sense of its basketball prowess.
Wright State
Record: 9-4
But really: 8-4
RPI: 179
OOC RPI: 181
SOS: 336
SOS: dot dot dot dash dash dash dot dot dot
OOC SOS: 335
Signature win: Sorry. UPS won't let you sign for wins unless they're over someone not in the bottom half of D1.
Oh so close: to having a decent schedule. And by "close to" I mean "ridiculously far from".
How did they lose to: frickin' BOWLING GREEN again!
Bonus RPIForecast fact: They have a 1-in-200 chance of winning out! (So you're sayin' there's a chance...)
Thing they are like: Their schedule is weaker than ABC's Monday nights.
UIC
Record: 9-4
But really: 8-4
RPI: 67
OOC RPI: 68
SOS: 134
OOC SOS: 142
Signature win: vs. #26 (!) Colorado St., 64-55.
Oh so close: to actually being pretty good before dropping their last three non-con to mediocre squads.
How did they lose to: @ #198 Toledo (by 19...).
Bonus RPIForecast fact: Favored by 22 in a conference game? A 97% chance of winning? Are you seriously...oh, Milwaukee, huh?...ok...seems low.
Thing they are like: UIC NON-CON == Star Wars, Episode V...except until turning into Episode I there at the end. Meesa no like that!
Loyola
Record: 9-3
But really: 8-3
RPI: 118
RIP: Realistic hopes.
OOC RPI: 115
SOS: 287
OOC SOS: 291
Signature win: @ #202 DePaul, 69-61, despite 37 points from a fifty-something Mark Aguirre.
Oh so close: Haven't lost by single digits.
How did they lose to: eh...if your worst loss is #91 South Florida... #firstworldproblems
Bonus RPIForecast Fact: Congratulations! You have managed to snag 5 games this season against teams with lower RPI than #321 Chicago State! Tell 'em what they've won! ...um...six basically meaningless games?
Thing they are like: A small flash mob that gets the message "SHOW UP PLAY BANZAI-TYPE DEFENSE FOR FORTY MINUTES LIKE CRAZY SINGING OPTIONAL" and it feels like there's like 12 guys even though only 5 show u...oh wait. That's...that's actually UIC. Whoops! My bad.
Valparaiso
Record: 10-4
But really: 9-4
RPI: 111
OOC RPI: 108
SOS: 276
OOC SOS: 279
Signature win: @ #33 Murray St, fool.
Oh so close: I still don't want to talk about it.
How did they lose: an EIGHT POINT LEAD with 58 SECONDS to play, when there's NO @#$& SHOT CLOCK and the state title is SO CLOSE they are already showing weeping Colonials on the JumboTron, and...erm. Ahem. right Bryce, wrong Valpo. Yes. Totally over that. Where were we?
Bonus RPIForecast fact: Valpo's probable win % goes up 7-tenths of a percent when Bryce takes off his jacket.
Thing they are like: The series "Lost". Starts with such hope and promise (with Rowdy as "Jack"!), excites and exhilarates you with previously unforeseen circumstances (who had UIC and Loyola as The Others?), and then trips up in weird places (...Will Bogan as John Locke?), starts disappointing you (Erik Buggs as Michael...Umm, trés obvious—they're both...uh...bad shots), but then pulls you back in with thrilling twists and turns (¿Bryce is Jacob?), building the suspense with hypotheticals (how would the smoke monster do vs. a 1-3-1 zone defense?), until suddenly...you're dead.
Oh well.
Apostle, you missed your true calling. You would have made a great comedy writer in Hollywood. Seriously, some great analysis. Now all we need to do is win!
Apostle, I won't be able to order Chinese without thinking of your analysis!
You had to bring it up: I will never get over that. It was the longest drive back from Indianapolis ever! However, maybe a psychoanalyst would suggest Bryce hasn't totally gotten over that as well, and it helps explain Bryce's fondness for slowing down the game and trying to eat up the clock when his team has a late lead. :-\
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on December 31, 2012, 08:00:19 AMHow did they lose: an EIGHT POINT LEAD with 58 SECONDS to play, when there's NO @#$& SHOT CLOCK and the state title is SO CLOSE they are already showing weeping Colonials on the JumboTron, and...erm. Ahem. right Bryce, wrong Valpo. Yes. Totally over that. Where were we?
LaPorte, if worse comes to worse, at least your RPIForecast post gave me some good belly laughs going into the new year. Just hope some of these teams actually prove to be something more than pathetic by February.
"How did they lose: an EIGHT POINT LEAD with 58 SECONDS to play, when there's NO @#$& SHOT CLOCK and the state title is SO CLOSE they are already showing weeping Colonials on the JumboTron, and...erm. Ahem. right Bryce, wrong Valpo. Yes. Totally over that. Where were we?"
I'll never get over it. Part of my immaturity, if you ask my wife.
Thanks all for the feedback. Since it was pretty much a blog post already, I made it officially one and added pictures for some humor:
http://www.valpofanzone.com/2012/12/31/horizon-league-the-non-con-2012/ (http://www.valpofanzone.com/2012/12/31/horizon-league-the-non-con-2012/)
well done, laporte. i got a pretty good laugh while also catching up on some of the non-con accomplishments and failings of the conference. :thumbsup:
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on December 31, 2012, 03:06:26 PM
Thanks all for the feedback. Since it was pretty much a blog post already, I made it officially one and added pictures for some humor:
http://www.valpofanzone.com/2012/12/31/horizon-league-the-non-con-2012/ (http://www.valpofanzone.com/2012/12/31/horizon-league-the-non-con-2012/)
Apostle's caption under the Detroit city seal:
i just feel it should be pointed out that the seal of the city of Detroit actually depicts the city on fire.Detroit City Councilwoman JoAnn Watson recognizes that the city is on fire and offers up the perfect solution:
http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/story/20264712/detroit-councilwoman-to-obama-we-supported-you-now-support-us (http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/story/20264712/detroit-councilwoman-to-obama-we-supported-you-now-support-us)
sigh...democracy ultimately fails because you get the government you voted for.
on a happier note, though, i didn't realize how much funnier pictures make things.
but the blog doesn't seem to be a really big part of this site...is that by design or happenstance?
Most, all, people go straight to this forum and skip right over the front page. Detroit was pretty close to knocking off #3 Syracuse if memory serves me right, which it might not.
Yeah, they lost by 4, after being down 40-21 at half. St. John's was a closer game though--Det actually led with under 6 to go.
Syracuse was the game Jim Boeheim took leave of his senses and went all Bob Costas Piers Morgan in the postgame.
And now, the look ahead. All stats from RPI Forecast or RealTimeRPI, as of 11:50 PM, 1/1/13.
Just because we only have 9 teams doesn't mean we can't have 4 divisions:
The Platters Division: (the great pretenders)
Green Bay (5-7; RPI 235; SOS 221)
Conference Forecast: 7-9 (RPIForecast) 6-10 (RealTime)
RPI Forecast: 189 (UP 46)
SOS Forecast: 142 (UP 79)
Toughest game: @ Valpo (20% chance)
Toss-up: @ Milwaukee (50% chance)
At home vs. Milwaukee: 77% chance
Best-case: 11-5. No, seriously. The second "1" is actually supposed to be on the left side of the dash.
Worst-case: 3-13. Bad. But not historically awful.
Chance of ending over .500: 22.81%
Cleveland St (5-5; RPI 139; SOS 181)
Conference Forecast: 6-10 (RPIForecast) 9-7 (RealTime)
RPI Forecast: 185 (DOWN 46)
SOS Forecast: 130 (UP 51)
Toughest game: @ Valpo (13% chance)
Toss-up: vs. Loyola (52% chance)
At home vs. Milwaukee: 89% chance
Best-case: 7-9. If McFadden petitions for another year of eligibility, maybe.
Worst-case: 2-14. Adding the proverbial insults to injuries.
Chance of winning more than 10 conference games: 0.5%
Wright State (8-4; RPI 178; SOS 337)
Conference Forecast: 8-8 (RPIForecast) 9-7 (RealTime)
RPI Forecast: 137 (UP 41)
SOS Forecast: 209 (UP 128!)
Toughest game: @ Valpo (27% chance)
Toss-up: vs. Valpo, @ CSU (55% chance)
At home vs. Milwaukee: 96% chance
Best-case: 12-4. They could be the best of all the mediocre schools in the league, wright?
Worst-case: 4-12. Or it could be that playing the various community colleges of Ohio proves not to be the world's best SAT-HL prep class.
Chance of 20-win season: 1.64%
Youngstown St (5-5; RPI 191; SOS 252)
Conference Forecast: 9-7 (both)
RPI Forecast: 170 (UP 21)
SOS Forecast: 223 (UP 29)
Toughest game: @ Valpo (28% chance)
Toss-up: @ WGB (45% chance)
At home vs. Milwaukee: 96% chance
Best-case: 14-2. Hey, I can't make this up. I have a system. Or rather, Jeff Sagarin does, and he lets me take it out on the weekends as long as I treat it real nice.
Worst-case: 6-10. Well, that's more likely.
Chance of ending over .500: 62.68%
Meh-be division
Loyola (9-4; RPI 122; SOS 294)
Conference Forecast: 8-8 (RPIForecast) 9-7 (RealTime)
Likely losses (RPIForecast): both to Valpo, plus @ everywhere but Milwaukee
Losses (RealTimeRPI): @ everywhere but Milwaukee
RPI Forecast: 157 (DOWN 35)
SOS Forecast: 249 (UP 45)
Toughest game: @ Valpo (22% chance)
Toss-up: vs. UIC (50% chance)
At home vs. Milwaukee: 94% chance
Best-case: 12-4. Defense is for real. Averkamp is avergood (read in Strong Bad voice).
Worst-case: 5-11. Defense is actually an M. Night Shymalayan production: scary at first; then shown to be just an apparition.
Chance of ending over .500: 88.18%
Marlon Brando Division: (coulda be a contendah)
Detroit (6-5; RPI 98; SOS 89)
Conference Forecast: 10-6 (RPIForecast) 9-7 (RealTime)
Likely losses (RPIForecast): @ everywhere but Milwaukee & WGB
Losses (RealTimeRPI): @ everywhere but Milwaukee
RPI Forecast: 65 (UP 33)
SOS Forecast: 78 (UP 11)
Toughest game: @ Valpo (22% chance)
Toss-up: vs. UIC (50% chance)
At home vs. Milwaukee: 94% chance
Best-case: 14-2. The proverbial talented team finally puts it all together. They did beat Canisius.
Worst-case: 8-8. The proverbial dysfunctional team makes Eli Holman look like he wasn't the freakin' problem, man. They did lose to Bowling Green.
Chance of ending over .500: 88.18%
UIC (8-4; RPI 70; SOS 134)
Conference Forecast: 10-6 (RPIForecast) 9-7 (RealTime)
Likely losses (RPIForecast): @ everywhere but Milwaukee and ?
Losses (RealTimeRPI): @ everywhere but Milwaukee
RPI Forecast: 70 (same!?!)
SOS Forecast: 123 (UP 11)
Toughest game: @ Valpo (34% chance)
Toss-up: @ Loyola (50% chance)
At home vs. Milwaukee: 97% chance
Best-case: 14-2. The class of the league, potentially: have beaten 2 top-100 teams already, and acquitted themselves better @ UNM than Valpo.
Worst-case: 9-7. The class is actually GEO 104, "Rocks for Jocks".
Chance of winning out: 0.04%
Valparaiso (9-4; RPI 110; SOS 278)
Conference Forecast: 10-6 (both)
Likely losses (RPIForecast): @ UIC, @ Detroit, @ YSU, @ WSU (and two more they don't feel like sharing apparently)
Losses (RealTimeRPI): @ UIC, @ Detroit, @ YSU, @ CSU, @ WSU, @ Loyola
RPI Forecast: 97 (up 13)
SOS Forecast: 179 (up 99)
Toughest game: @ Detroit, @ UIC (37% chance)
Toss-up: @ Loyola (51% chance)
At home vs. Milwaukee: 97% chance
Best-case: 16-0. This team, this league—could very well happen: if they can win at Murray St., why not UIC or Detroit? Or, contra RealTime: how does that team lose 6 of 8 road games?
Worst-case: 9-7. New parts don't continue to gel; injuries or delayed Mayan apocalypse, I suppose.
Fun fact: Has 3 of conference's top 5 in rebounding rate, more than 100 min played (Capobianco #1, Broekhoff #3, Van Wijk #5)
Chance of winning out: 0.03%
D-II division
Milwaukee (2-10; RPI 330; SOS 269)
Conference Forecast: 2-14 (both)
Likely wins (RPIForecast): ?
Likely wins (RealTimeRPI): vs. Green Bay (and ???)
RPI Forecast: 331 (DOWN 1)
SOS Forecast: 216 (UP 53)
Toughest game: @ Valpo (3% chance)
Toss-up: the jump ball vs. CSU
At home vs. Milwaukee: 50% chance
Best chance: vs. CSU (32% chance)
Best-case: By the standard I've been using, 0-16. Let's say 3-13 just to be kind.
Worst-case: 0-16, easily.
Chance of going 7-9: 0.01%
Chance of losing out: 10.8% (!)
AND Introducing PANTHERQUEST 2013: The Quest To Be the Worst Team In Horizon League History. Throughout the conference season we'll all be watching to find whether or not Milwaukee can at least be the best—at being the worst. You may have thought Loyola was absolutely wretched last year (and they were), but at least they won a game amidst the 17 beatings they absorbed. No, to be truly the worst, Milwaukee has to lose ALL their games just to tie 2003-04 Cleveland State (0-16).
The Horizon League has also never had a team with RPI below 2004-05 Youngstown St (321 out of 327, or 1.8 percentile). Milwaukee is 330/345, or 4.3 percentile—losing out would leave them 340/345, or 1.4% (RealTimeRPI says they are 335 now...). In conference play, 2004-05 YSU was outscored by 13.2 ppg; RPI Forecast has UWM on track to be outscored by 13.0 ppg. Can they pull off the Pupu Platter, the Trifecta of Awful?
STAY TUNED TO THE HORIZON LEAGUE NETWORK FOR THE ANSWER TO THESE AND ALL IMPORTANT QUESTIONS NOT INVOLVING THE WORD "FISCAL".
SHORT ATTENTION SPAN THEATRE VERSION
(Breakdown for the TL;DR Crowd)
Due to R(p)ise
Green Bay up 46 (235 to 189)
WSU up 41 (178 to 137)
Detroit up 33 (98 to 65)
YSU up 21 (191 to 170)
Valpo up 13 (110 to 97)
Meh
UIC (no change at 70)
Milwaukee down 1 (330 to 331! Wheeee!)
Inches and Falling
CSU down 46 (139 to 185)
Loyola down 35 (122 to 157)
Prpidictions
Detroit 65
UIC 70
Valpo 97
WSU 137
Loyola 157
YSU 170
CSU 185
Green Bay 189
Milwaukee 331
RPI Forecast Results
1. Valparaiso 10-6
UIC 10-6
Detroit 10-6
4. YSU 9-7
5. Loyola 8-8
WSU 8-8
7. Green Bay 7-9
8. CSU 6-10
9. Milwaukee 2-14
Yeah, I'm aware that's statistically impossible, but I can't help it that RPI Forecast rounds all the darn time.
A rising tide lifts all SOS boats, especially the ones that were almost sunk
WSU up 128 (337 to 209)
Valpo up 99 (278 to 179)
Green Bay up 79 (221 to 142)
Milwaukee up 53 (269 to 216)
CSU up 51 (181 to 130)
Loyola up 45 (294 to 249)
YSU up 29 (252 to 223)
Detroit up 11 (89 to 78)
UIC up 11 (134 to 123)
whew! now let's HOOP IT UP people! before bigDwsu scoffs and says "predictions? i spit on your predictions because we have JULIUS MAYS!!! HAHAHaa--what? well @#%"
Green Bay is better then most are giving them credit for, in the same way UIC is worse then what many think. If I hadn't bought a new house last night I'd wager a dinner that UIC finishes tied with or behind Green Bay. I suppose I could wager a fish fry.
Btw, I laughed pretty hard reading that last part. No offense there bigD
i find it amusing that the uic part says they likely lose both to valpo, but then the valpo section says we lose at uic. editorial oversight somewhere?
nerd, are you suggesting that the RPI Forecast was written by someone at Bleacher Report?
Thanks, HC.
Looking at the numbers again, both sites predict a VU/UIC split. Sorry about that.
Quote from: valporun on January 02, 2013, 11:15:21 AM
nerd, are you suggesting that the RPI Forecast was written by someone at Bleacher Report?
i made no such suggestion, but you can read into it however you want.
WHERE WE'RE AT: 11-5. 10-5 to the eyes of RPI. (seriously. try it: "rippy"? trés cool.)
WHAT'S HAPPENED SINCE THE LAST TIME YOU ACTUALLY UPDATED THIS: MSU (W) Loyola (@#$&) CSU (W)
WHADDATHEY THINK ABOUT US NOW?
RealTimeRPI: 121 (of 347 D-I) http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_281_Men.html (http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_281_Men.html) UP 55!
RPIForecast: 113 http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Valparaiso.html (http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Valparaiso.html) UP 61!
Sagarin: 93 with a rating of 77.86 http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt1213.htm (http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt1213.htm) UP 18!
Average the 3 and come up with 109, or up 45 places. Basically we're back to where we were on the second update (post 8 on this thread) ... yea?
WHAT ABOUT STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE?
238 (RealTimeRPI) up 80
246 (RPIForecast) up 85
299 (Sagarin) up 31
Average of 271, or up 55 slots.
WHERE THEY THINK WE'LL END UP?
RealTimeRPI: 18-11, (9-4 out-of conf; 9-7 Horizon) same record, but one more conf loss than last time
RPIForecast: 19-10 (10-6 conf) one more win than last time
RPIForecast further projects an end-season RPI of 105 and SOS of 180.
BONUS RPI FORECAST FACT: We have an 0.03% chance of running the table!
% of a win next week:
@ UIC 39% (-3.2 pts); RealTime: UIC 70-59
@ UWM 85% (+11.9 pts); RealTime: VU 71-64
WHERE WE'RE AT: 16-5. 15-5 to the eyes of RPI. ("rippy". it saves time, too. think about it.)
WHAT'S HAPPENED SINCE THE LAST TIME YOU ACTUALLY UPDATED THIS: @UIC, @Milw, @Det, vs. WSU, vs. GB (all WINS)
WHADDATHEY THINK ABOUT US NOW?
RealTimeRPI: 85 (of 347 D-I) RealTime (http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_281_Men.html) UP 36!
RPIForecast: 86 RPIForecast (http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Valparaiso.html) UP 27!
Sagarin: 82 with a rating of 78.98 Sagarin (http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt1213.htm) UP 13!
ESPN / BPI: 72 with a rating of 68.4 ESPN BPI (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/teamId/2674)
Average the 4 and come up with 81, or up 28 places. Obviously as the systems get more data there is far less discrepancy between them (compare with earlier posts, above, or just take my word for it).
WHAT ABOUT STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE?
234 (RealTimeRPI) up 4
230 (RPIForecast) up 16
233 (Sagarin) up 66
135 (ESPN BPI)
Average of 208, or up 63 slots. And you wonder why I prefer BPI???
WHERE THEY THINK WE'LL END UP?
RealTimeRPI: 20-9, (9-4 out-of conf; 11-5 Horizon) two more wins than last time!
RPIForecast: 21-8 (12-4 conf) two more wins than last time!
RPIForecast further projects an end-season RPI of 78 (up 28!) and SOS of 185 (down 5).
It should be noted that for some reason RealTime thinks we'll go 5-4 the rest of the way, which means it is D-U-M dum (losses @YSU, @WSU, @Loyola, and @WGB), and for some other dumb reason RPI Forecast thinks we'll go 6-3 the rest of the way, even though it NEVER gives us less than a 50% win chance (lowest is @WGB, 51%).
This is why computers will never take over the world. (Also because Macs have no "delete" key.)
BONUS RPI FORECAST FACT: We now have an 2.83% chance of running the rest of conference table!
DOUBLE-BONUS: That means there's a greater chance of going 9-0 than 2-7 or worse (2.43%).
% of a win next couple weeks:
@ YSU 61% (+3.2 pts); RealTime: YSU 68-67
vs. UWM 93% (+16.2 pts); RealTime: VU 81-55
vs. UIC 86% (+11.7); RealTime: VU 73-62.
Interesting footnote: Our BPI is higher, I am reasonably sure, simply because of LaVonte. How, you might ask? He is considered one of our top players by BPI/ESPN, and the fact that he was missing for nine games discounts all those losses in that span.
HOWEVA, he is considered one of our top players simply because he is in top 5 in MPG and has now played half our games. He is JUST a tenth of a minute ahead of KVW, and of course as we all know KVW is picking up steam, and LVD might be losing a bit of minutage.
This inevitable passing would actually result in us taking a hit on BPI that would put us down, perhaps around where everyone else ranks us, UNLESS someone else falls out of the top 5 and behind LVD. It's extremely unlikely to be Rowdy or Buggy. So it would have to be Bogan or Kenney, except that the former is playing even MORE lately (season average, 24.5; 27.3 MPG in-conference), and ditto for Kenney (season average 24.2; 27.4 MPG in-conference). Meanwhile, LVD is playing less (season average, 23.4; 20.6 MPG in-conference). Perhaps Boggs back at full strength could cut into Bogan's or Kenney's minutes? Or simply LVD being fully healthy and more integrated into what we're doing?
And how interesting is that that something like this affects so much else?
So of COURSE RPI Forecast updates their numbers moments after I wrote this. (I have now updated everything above, so.)
Life.
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on January 25, 2013, 11:47:58 AM
WHERE WE'RE AT: 16-5. 15-5 to the eyes of RPI. ("rippy". it saves time, too. think about it.)
WHAT'S HAPPENED SINCE THE LAST TIME YOU ACTUALLY UPDATED THIS: @UIC, @Milw, @Det, vs. WSU, vs. GB (all WINS)
WHADDATHEY THINK ABOUT US NOW?
RealTimeRPI: 85 (of 347 D-I) RealTime (http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_281_Men.html) UP 36!
RPIForecast: 86 RPIForecast (http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Valparaiso.html) UP 27!
Sagarin: 82 with a rating of 78.98 Sagarin (http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt1213.htm) UP 13!
ESPN / BPI: 72 with a rating of 68.4 ESPN BPI (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/teamId/2674)
Average the 4 and come up with 81, or up 28 places. Obviously as the systems get more data there is far less discrepancy between them (compare with earlier posts, above, or just take my word for it).
WHAT ABOUT STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE?
234 (RealTimeRPI) up 4
230 (RPIForecast) up 12
233 (Sagarin) up 66
135 (ESPN BPI)
Average of 208, or up 63 slots. And you wonder why I prefer BPI???
WHERE THEY THINK WE'LL END UP?
RealTimeRPI: 20-9, (9-4 out-of conf; 11-5 Horizon) two more wins than last time!
RPIForecast: 21-8 (12-4 conf) two more wins than last time!
RPIForecast further projects an end-season RPI of 78 (up 28!) and SOS of 185 (down 5).
It should be noted that for some reason RealTime thinks we'll go 4-4 the rest of the way, which means it is D-U-M dum (losses @YSU, @WSU, @Loyola, and @WGB), and for some other dumb reason RPI Forecast thinks we'll go 5-3 the rest of the way, even though it NEVER gives us less than a 50% win chance (lowest is @WGB, 51%).
This is why computers will never take over the world. Also because Macs have no "delete" key.
BONUS RPI FORECAST FACT: We now have an 2.83% chance of running the rest of conference table!
DOUBLE-BONUS: That means there's a greater chance of going 9-0 than 2-7 or worse (2.43%).
% of a win next couple weeks:
@ YSU 61% (+3.2 pts); RealTime: YSU 68-67
vs. UWM 93% (+16.2 pts); RealTime: VU 81-55
vs. UIC 86% (+11.7); RealTime: VU 73-62.
Interesting footnote: Our BPI is higher, I am reasonably sure, simply because of LaVonte. How, you might ask? He is considered one of our top players by BPI/ESPN, and the fact that he was missing for nine games discounts all those losses in that span.
HOWEVA, he is considered one of our top players simply because he is in top 5 in MPG and has now played half our games. He is JUST a tenth of a minute ahead of KVW, and of course as we all know KVW is picking up steam, and LVD might be losing a bit of minutage.
This inevitable passing would actually result in us taking a hit on BPI that would put us down, perhaps around where everyone else ranks us, UNLESS someone else falls out of the top 5 and behind LVD. It's extremely unlikely to be Rowdy or Buggy. So it would have to be Bogan, except that he is playing even MORE lately (season average, 24.5; 27.3 MPG in-conference), and ditto for Kenney (season average 24.2; 27.4 MPG in-conference). Meanwhile, LVD is playing less (season average, 23.4; 20.6 MPG in-conference). Perhaps Boggs back at full strength could cut into Bogan's or Kenney's minutes? Or simply LVD being fully healthy and more integrated into what we're doing?
And how interesting is that that something like this affects so much else?
Thanks! It is fasinating. I'm exhausted thinking about all the work you put in on it!
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on January 25, 2013, 11:47:58 AMAlso because Macs have no "delete" key.
Is delete on a PC like backspace, but deletes the character to the right?
The mac has a "delete" key (at least this one), but it deletes the character to the left of the cursor, which function might be handled by "backspace" on a PC keyboard? That key, on a mac, sits where the "backspace" key does on a PC.
So, yeah, on a mac you can delete to the left, but not so easily to the right. Is that an important missing feature?
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on January 25, 2013, 11:47:58 AM
It should be noted that for some reason RealTime thinks we'll go 4-4 the rest of the way, which means it is D-U-M dum (losses @YSU, @WSU, @Loyola, and @WGB), and for some other dumb reason RPI Forecast thinks we'll go 5-3 the rest of the way, even though it NEVER gives us less than a 50% win chance (lowest is @WGB, 51%).
Very informative!
You might want to add 1 to the win column. ;)
Quote from: agibson on January 25, 2013, 03:01:20 PMSo, yeah, on a mac you can delete to the left, but not so easily to the right. Is that an important missing feature?
I don't know. I own Macs :)
Quote from: wh on January 25, 2013, 04:05:32 PM
Very informative!
You might want to add 1 to the win column. ;)
Good eye! Corrected, and thanks.
Quote from: vu72 on January 25, 2013, 02:57:00 PMhanks! It is fasinating. I'm exhausted thinking about all the work you put in on it!
Thanks for the kind words. Good to know it matters!!
My opinion is that we are playing well and some of our best basketball of the year. With that said, I wish we didn't have a week off. We are hot right now. I wish we were playing this weekend in order to take advantage of our hot hand.
Just got back from a wireless vacation (i.e., I didn't have any internet). Left the day before the Detroit game and the first thing I went to upon my return was to check the Detroit result. Cool! Was even happier to see the win string growing as well.
But then I reviewed all the box scores and noted that Capo's minutes seem to be really drying up. Any reason beyond not playing well?
He gets in foul trouble quickly, I don't know if he wasn't feeling 100% but he just looks slow.
It'd be nice if he could play a few more minutes to spell KVW, who thankfully has not been in any foul trouble.
Quote from: VULB#62 on January 27, 2013, 10:19:39 AM
Just got back from a wireless vacation (i.e., I didn't have any internet). Left the day before the Detroit game and the first thing I went to upon my return was to check the Detroit result. Cool! Was even happier to see the win string growing as well.
But then I reviewed all the box scores and noted that Capo's minutes seem to be really drying up. Any reason beyond not playing well?
In the Detroit game, Bobby played only 9 minutes because he was ejected. (However, that turned out to be a benefit because his ejection was the turning point in the game and Kevin got more minutes to achieve a career high, which won the game.) In the Wright State game, Bobby played only 5 minutes, but he had 3 fouls in that short time and he seemed to have difficulty with the match-ups. In the Green Bay game, Bobby played 16 minutes, which is above his average, and he did well, getting 7 points and 5 rebounds while shooting 3-5, including a 3-point shot. I don't see any reason for concern.
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on January 25, 2013, 11:47:58 AMInteresting footnote: Our BPI is higher, I am reasonably sure, simply because of LaVonte. How, you might ask? He is considered one of our top players by BPI/ESPN, and the fact that he was missing for nine games discounts all those losses in that span.
HOWEVA, he is considered one of our top players simply because he is in top 5 in MPG and has now played half our games. He is JUST a tenth of a minute ahead of KVW, and of course as we all know KVW is picking up steam, and LVD might be losing a bit of minutage.
This inevitable passing would actually result in us taking a hit on BPI that would put us down, perhaps around where everyone else ranks us, UNLESS someone else falls out of the top 5 and behind LVD. It's extremely unlikely to be Rowdy or Buggy. So it would have to be Bogan or Kenney, except that the former is playing even MORE lately (season average, 24.5; 27.3 MPG in-conference), and ditto for Kenney (season average 24.2; 27.4 MPG in-conference). Meanwhile, LVD is playing less (season average, 23.4; 20.6 MPG in-conference). Perhaps Boggs back at full strength could cut into Bogan's or Kenney's minutes? Or simply LVD being fully healthy and more integrated into what we're doing?
Interesting that now, the MPG has shaken out this way, due to some WEIRD injury- or blowout- or both-related statlines since i left like this:
@YSU Kenney, 6 min
vs. MILW Van Wijk, 13 min
vs. UIC Van Wijk, 6 min
@CSU Dority, 7 min
Top 5: (objective: keep Dority there, although you'd think BPI would be used mostly for BracketBuster at this point)
Broekhoff 31.8
Buggs 27.1
Bogan 25.1
Kenney 23.4
Dority 23.1
KVW 22.6
As the season goes on, it becomes more clear to me how valuable Erik and Will are to this team, and how hard it will be to replace Erik.
The only player who I can think of who had anywhere the shear speed of Erik is Jaryd Loyd. Erik is faster but not as good of a shot. Still, he is as good of a on ball defender as we have ever had. Will has proven to be the next best on ball defender and has found his shot. These two will be next to impossible to replace. Expect less next year as our kids mature. this is OUR year.
Does anyone remember ANYBODY who could go coast to coast like Erik?? Truly impressive and very big time!
I have know idea about Keith Carter ot Lexus Williams, but Dority is no Erik Buggs. If he is the point guard next year we will have problems, or maybe, I'm just spoiled by the talent and incredible hard work of one Erik Buggs.
Looking ahead at the schedules for the HL...I think GB has the easiest schedule... despite the fact that they are horrible on the road...They could sweep out...I Hope the March 2nd games are meaningless for VU... Detroit @ UIC 1pm Central, Youngstown State @ Wright State 1pm Central... and VU @ Green Bay at 2pm Central. (Oh, CSU@LUC also at 3pm).
Valpo
@ WSU
H UDM
@ LUC
H YST
@ GB
Detroit
H CSU
@ VU
H LUC
@UIC
Wright
H VU
@ CSU
@UIC
H YST
GB
@ CSU
@YST
@UWM
H VU
Youngstown
H UWM
H GB
@ VU
@WSU
UIC
@ LUC
@ UWM
H WSU
H UDM
CSU
@ UDM
H GB
H UWM
H WSU
@ LUC
Loyola
@ UWM
H UIC
H VU
@ UDM
H CSU
UWM
H LUC
@ YST
@CSU
H UIC
H GB
Quote from: talksalot on February 10, 2013, 09:28:35 PM
Looking ahead at the schedules for the HL...I think GB has the easiest schedule... despite the fact that they are horrible on the road...They could sweep out...I Hope the March 2nd games are meaningless for VU... Detroit @ UIC 1pm Central, Youngstown State @ Wright State 1pm Central... and VU @ Green Bay at 2pm Central. (Oh, CSU@LUC also at 3pm).
Valpo
@ WSU
H UDM
@ LUC
H YST
@ GB
Detroit
H CSU
@ VU
H LUC
@UIC
Wright
H VU
@ CSU
@UIC
H YST
GB
@ CSU
@YST
@UWM
H VU
Youngstown
H UWM
H GB
@ VU
@WSU
UIC
@ LUC
@ UWM
H WSU
H UDM
CSU
@ UDM
H GB
H UWM
H WSU
@ LUC
Loyola
@ UWM
H UIC
H VU
@ UDM
H CSU
UWM
H LUC
@ YST
@CSU
H UIC
H GB
As challenging as our final 5 games are, we should be favored in all 5. If we play to our potential (which we seem to be getting closer to), we very well could run the table. Not saying we will, but I do think we are peaking at the right time.
Based on the remaining schedules, I'd say our biggest game this week is against Wright State, not Detroit.
Paul
WHERE WE'RE AT: 19-6. 18-6 to the eyes of RPI. ("rippy". i see you out there, talksalot. cheers.)
WHAT'S HAPPENED SINCE THE LAST TIME YOU ACTUALLY UPDATED THIS: L @YSU, & WINS vs. Milw, vs. UIC, @CSU
WHADDATHEY THINK ABOUT US NOW?
RealTimeRPI: 88 (of 347 D-I) RealTime (http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_281_Men.html) down 3
--Of course, consider the source. They still haven't updated the CSU game yet! (at least they predicted a one-point valpo win.) But should we really be surprised? This site blows. How much, you ask? SO MUCH SO that they are still PREDICTING a FOUR-POINT WIN for the IONA AT VALPO GAME FROM TWENTY-THREE MONTHS AGO. Don't believe me? Fine. Don't click here (http://realtimerpi.com/2010-2011/rpi_281_Men.html) then.
RPIForecast: 82 RPIForecast (http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Valparaiso.html) UP 4!
Sagarin: 80 with a rating of 78.98 Sagarin (http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt1213.htm) UP 2!
ESPN / BPI: 71 with a rating of 68.3 ESPN BPI (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/teamId/2674) UP 1!
Average the 4 and come up with 80, or up 1 place, good considering RealTimeRPI still thinks Homer is the coach.
WHAT ABOUT STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE?
226 (RealTimeRPI) up 8
230 (RPIForecast) same
220 (Sagarin) up 13
151 (ESPN BPI) down 16
Average of 207, or up one slot.
WHERE THEY THINK WE'LL END UP?
RealTimeRPI: 22-8, (9-4 out-of conf; 12-4 Horizon) one more win than last time!
RPIForecast: 22-8 (12-4 conf) same
RPIForecast further projects an end-season RPI of 73 (up 5!) and SOS of 164 (up 21). Largely up to the BracketBuster, it would seem for the latter.
SPEAKING OF?
Well, glad that you mentioned it. RealTime says we'll beat EKU 74-68 and RPIForecast gives us a 79% chance of winning--better chance than in ALL our remaining games save vs. YSU (83%). And to those of you that saw the last time we faced YSU, this is why computers will never take over the world. (Also because Macs have no right mouse button.)
BONUS RPI FORECAST FACT: We now have a 7.21% chance of running the regular season table!
DOUBLE-BONUS: That means there's less of a chance of going 6-0 than going 2-4 or worse (11.21%).
% of a win next ten daze:
@ WSU 57% (+1.9 pts); RealTime: WSU 71-66 (i hate it, but they were the ones that were right about YSU too)
vs. Detroit 62% (+3.5 pts); RealTime: VU 74-65
@ Loyola 63% (+3.5 pts); RealTime: VU 69-68.
HAHA MORE BONUS FACTAGE: the CONFERENCE TOURNEY!
RPIForecast now comes in two flavors, with or without conference tourneys: joy!!! (http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Valparaiso.html) (in Sven Hoëk voice (http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_mJ4lc_Q9Q6k/SORL0YMGQxI/AAAAAAAARpo/hfpm9WKA74Y/s400/Rnssven.gif))
Probability of auto-bid
Valparaiso 47.87% (projected record with greatest probability: 24-8, 23.36%)
Detroit 31.70% (projected record with greatest probability: 19-12, 17.12%)
Green Bay 8.55% (projected record with greatest probability: 16-15, 12.36%)
WSU 8.27% (projected record with greatest probability: 19-11, 14.66%)
YSU 1.26% (projected record with greatest probability: 15-14, 15.81%)
UIC 0.83% (projected record with greatest probability: 17-14, 14.00%)
Loyola 0.71% (projected record with greatest probability: 15-15, 20.56%)
CSU 0.14% (projected record with greatest probability: 11-17, 28.56%)
Milwaukee 0.00% (projected record with greatest probability: 4-26, 28.89%) seriously couldn't make that up. ten thousand computer scenarios couldn't find ONE in which Jordan Aaron went all Jordan Michael on the HL.
A GUY CAN DREAM CAN'T HE:
Running the table the whole rest of the way to the NCAA (poetry) would give us an RPI of 53.
And there's a 3.86% chance of it happening.
OK, this will help with the WSU game tomorrow...
Game #26 on the year...
Over the past 20 years, we are 8-1 at home, 8-3 on the road, 16-4 overall.
HL Games... We beat CSU by 18 last year on the road, we beat WSU at home 2 years ago by 2 (On February 12th), and we beat UIC 3 years ago by 1 at home.
Speaking of games played on February 12, over the past 20 years, we have played 7 times on 2/12... and we are 6-1, lone loss coming in 04-05 @ IUPUI, we are 4-0 at home and 2-1 on the road.
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on February 11, 2013, 10:15:41 AMgood considering RealTimeRPI still thinks Homer is the coach.
That is so stupid. That's like saying Frank Haith is still head coach at Miami.
Quote from: historyman on February 11, 2013, 01:09:43 PMThat is so stupid. That's like saying Frank Haith is still head coach at Miami.
Well, they didn't SAY it in so many words. I was implying that if they were still awaiting the results of the IONA game, then they must just be that behind the times.
Also I was just trying to be funny.
Looking ahead to seeding:
Here: my spreadsheet of the current conference leader of all the conferences outside of the top 10. The question: are they higher than Valpo? (According to rpiforecast.) If so, what are their chances of winning the conference tourney? If not them, are there other teams in the conference that could be ranked above us were they to get the autobid?
(http://oi45.tinypic.com/9qform.jpg)
Roughly speaking:
--If you're higher than 6 teams, you're a 15.
--If you're higher than 10, you're a 14.
--If you're higher than 14, you're a 13.
Cutting the suspense, if you're allergic to sheets with numbers: we're safely higher than 13 teams--nay, conferences, because it won't matter who wins them--they won't pass us unless we pretty much lose all our remaining games but still recover and win the tournament; and we are about equal to SFAustin.
CURRENT SEEDCAST IS:
(http://oi50.tinypic.com/2va1rw9.jpg)
Cross-checking my work, ESPN (via BPI) rates SFA as the lowest 13 and us as the highest 14 right now. Passing them would be the difference between playing Ohio St (lowest 3) and Arizona (highest 4). Not a huge difference, but a difference nonetheless.
Great post Apostle. Very helpful.
So lets hope we get it down to a
(http://cache2.allpostersimages.com/p/LRG/20/2031/AE24D00Z/posters/wilt-chamberlain.jpg)
or a
(http://cdn0.sbnation.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/4407607/20121201_jla_ag5_841.0_standard_352.0.jpg)
So basicly your rpi agrees with the bpi and not far off the Sagarin analysis. If we win out we are a 12.
Remember, the committee counts what you have done of late much more than early season stuff. Our falls happened early and on the road. Keep winning and keep improving our chances for a win in the tourney.
Teams to root against: conference leaders that are in our RPI neighborhood
where is that exactly around 83.
Coming off of you know darn well go away
Toughest game left @ GB (45%)
Chance of winning out 19.53%
Biggest threat apparently foul trouble. also flagrant elbows and bad tattoos.
--Davidson (77)
Coming off of? 10 straight wins over their horrible horrible conference
How horrible is it? There are 2 other teams ranked higher than 240 (C of Charleston, 147, Elon, 162)
That's pretty horrible? Oh you haven't heard the worst of it.
Toughest game left? @ Elon (68%!)
Chance of losing at least 1 more? 48.31%
Biggest threat? College of Charleston (147ish)?
Worst of it? THIS TEAM LOST TO MILWAUKEE, PEOPLE, THEY SHOULD NOT BE ALLOWED WITHIN 1000 KM OF THE BIG DANCE
(http://www.bustedmugshots.com/image/get/listing/mug-shot-40622762.jpg)
the first result for google imaging "davidson wisconsin milwaukee -harley". totally serious.
--Stephen F Austin (89)
Coming off of? a tough loss at SE-LA, the Loyola of the Southland
Wait check that? yeah, you're right, while their RPI is similar to Loyola, they're actually 4th best in their horrible horrible conference.
Well at least? The Southland is less horrible than whatever Davidson's in.
The Southern Conference? Yeah, that was feigned ignorance to convey distaste, but whatever.
Toughest game left their BB @ Long Beach (48% win chance). Otherwise given no less than a 72% chance, although one of those games is hosting NW St, their only other conference loss (and the only other decent team in their horrible horrible conference)
But what about? Orval Faubus Oral Roberts? OK, they're not that indecent. Think Oakland or GB.
Chance of losing at least 1 more: 71.4%
(http://rlv.zcache.com/stephen_f_austin_posters-re27115ca61fc4079970c9ec303f28b3d_n2z_400.jpg)
Most people are unaware that the Father Of Texas actually invented basketball, 50 years before Naismith, only BIGGER and BETTER than basketball because texas obviously.
--South Dakota State U (67)
Coming off of? 11 wins outta their last 12 over their rapidly deteriorating apartment building of a conference
Is it like, Cabrini-Green bad? What are you, white? That's probably like the only complex you know in Chicago. And it doesn't even exist any more.
Oh good. It gave me the shivers. I guess I kind of understand. That's how I feel when I proofread truth219's posts.
Toughest game left? BB @ Murray St (44%!)
Dear Racers: your winning this game would work so well for us on so many different levels. Yes. Well, 2 levels, anyway.
Chance of losing at least 1 more? 69.53%
Biggest conference threat? Western Illinois or Oakland (107ishes)
(http://farm1.staticflickr.com/21/31612334_e2b732282f_z.jpg?zz=1)
the only common hit from searching both "cabrini-green" as well as "state of wisconsin-milwaukee basketball"
--Bucknell (60)
Coming off of? A not-great road loss to #196 Lafayette.
How horrible is it? Eh, the Patriot League's not that bad. If it were it would have "South" in its title.
Toughest game left? @ Lehigh (39%)
COME ON MOUNTAIN HAWKS!!!1! you're telling me.
Chance of losing at least 1 more? 69.59%
Biggest conference threat? said Hawks (they lost at home to them. so. there's that.)
(http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images_root/slides/photos/002/593/497/historicfootballposters.com_display_image.jpg?1347606089)
yeah this is the wrong sport, i couldn't help posting this for the slogan at the bottom like for reals the only way this could be any better were if the cigarette were in gary sinise's mouth also the girl's
Most people are unaware that the Father Of Texas actually invented basketball, 50 years before Naismith, only BIGGER and BETTER than basketball because texas obviously.
Well, of course!
We originally used 12 ft tall baskets, but had to bring it down for the rest of you :)
Quote from: valpotx on February 19, 2013, 10:00:21 AM
We originally used 12 ft tall baskets, but had to bring it down for the rest of you :)
To use the line from HOOSIERS, "I didn't know they grew 'em that small down on the farm."
Brief update: Bucknell did return the favor to Lehigh and knocked them off at home. They now look poised to win out (76.25% chance thereof) and have a high enough RPI that they would have to somehow lose one and we win out INCLUDING our tourney to be par.
The good news is we can always root against them in the conference tourney.
THAT would be a pleasure... my sister is a Bucknell grad and I would not hear the end of it. I will be going to the Spring Baseball game on March 14th against those dirty bisons in Winter Haven with serious bragging rights on the line. As I say to her: Go Bucknell... I don't care where... Just GO!
WHERE WE'RE AT: 21-7. 20-7 to the eyes of RPI. ("rippy". i see you out there, talksalot. you can't be alone for long.)
WHAT'S HAPPENED SINCE THE LAST TIME YOU ACTUALLY UPDATED THIS: W @ WSU, L vs Det KITTENS! KITTENZ-FOR-ALL, W @ LUC
WHADDATHEY THINK ABOUT US NOW?
RealTimeRPI: 80 (of 347 D-I) RealTime (http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_281_Men.html) UP 8!
RPIForecast: 80 RPIForecast (http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Valparaiso.html) UP 2!
Sagarin: 77 with a rating of 79.34 Sagarin (http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt1213.htm) UP 3!
ESPN / BPI: 73 with a rating of 68.3 ESPN BPI (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/teamId/2674) down 2
Average the 4 and come up with 78, or up 2 places!
WHAT ABOUT STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE?
191 (RealTimeRPI) up 37!
191 (RPIForecast) up 39!
193 (Sagarin) up 27!
138 (ESPN BPI) up 13
Average of 178, or up 29 slots! This late in the game I don't have an explanation for this type of early-season jump; can it solely be due to our own jump from playing Detroit and two more road games? BB doesn't count yet, of course...or it could also be due to all of those people ahead of us continuing to play their HORRIBLE HORRIBLE CONFERENCE MATES some more and falling.
WHERE THEY THINK WE'LL END UP?
RealTimeRPI: 22-8, (9-4 out-of conf; 12-4 Horizon) same
RPIForecast: 22-8 (12-4 conf) same
RPIForecast still projects an end-season RPI of 73 (same) and SOS of 164 (same).
BONUS RPI FORECAST FACT: We now have a 31.27% chance of running the regular season table!
OUT-OF-THE-BONUS: That keeps getting higher because we have fewer games to play, genius.
% of a win next ten+ daze:
vs EKU 79% (+8.9 pts); RealTime: VU 73-67
vs. YSU 86% (+11.7 pts); RealTime: VU 77-61
@ GB 46% (-1.2 pts); RealTime: GB 71-68. For those of you who think, 'eh, we can lose this one as long as we've beaten YSU', I point out that this is as much of a must-win too, because we're fighting for our seeding lives.
HAHA MORE BONUS FACTAGE: the CONFERENCE TOURNEY!
RPIForecast now comes in two flavors, with or without conference tourneys: joy!!! (http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Valparaiso.html) (in Sven Hoëk voice (http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_mJ4lc_Q9Q6k/SORL0YMGQxI/AAAAAAAARpo/hfpm9WKA74Y/s400/Rnssven.gif))
Probability of auto-bid
Valparaiso 46.66% (projected record with greatest probability: 24-8, 32.26%)
Detroit 38.29% (projected record with greatest probability: 20-11, 26.25%)
Green Bay 9.91% (projected record with greatest probability: 18-14, 12.49%)
WSU 3.56% (projected record with greatest probability: 20-12, 12.96%)
YSU 0.58% (projected record with greatest probability: 14-15, 24.71%)
Loyola 0.45% (projected record with greatest probability: 15-15, 20.56%)
UIC 0.44% (projected record with greatest probability: 17-14, 23.89%)
CSU 0.10% (projected record with greatest probability: 11-17, 31.81%)
Milwaukee 0.00% (projected record with greatest probability: 5-25, 28.89%)
seriously still can't make that up. ten thousand computer scenarios still can't find ONE in which Rob Jeter goes Derek Jeter on the HL.
So...you can check this against last time's or take it on faith here: our chances went down slightly, Detroit's went up significantly, and GB's a little. Everyone else pretty much went down, although Loyola passed UIC (everyone else's chance of winning: 5.13%; last time: 11.21%, although most of that is WSU being exposed for who they really are--from 8.27 to 3.56%). Note to those in ESPN Sec 140: don't bet "the field" in the HL tourney.
A GUY CAN DREAM CAN'T HE:
Winning away / each game that we play / the whole rest of the way / to the NCAA (now that's poetry):
a rippy of 65. down 12 due to losing to Det
And there's a 16.34% chance of it happening.
SeedCast: the Sequel
Here: my spreadsheet of the current conference leader of all the conferences below us.
The question: are they higher than Valpo?
I weight RPI * 3 and also average Sagarin and BPI to simulate committee considerations like "last 12 D1 games", etc. If so, what are their chances of winning the conference tourney? If not them, are there other teams in the conference that could be ranked above us were they to get the autobid?
(http://oi47.tinypic.com/1zxvdpj.jpg)
Roughly speaking:
--If you're higher than 6 teams, you're a 15. (Why: because 4 16 seeds get "1st round" games + 2 more go right to "2nd rd")
--If you're higher than 10, you're a 14.
--If you're higher than 14, you're a 13.
Cutting the suspense, if you're allergic to sheets with numbers: we're safely higher than 13 teams--nay, conferences, because it won't matter who wins them--they won't pass us unless we pretty much lose all our remaining games but still recover and win the tournament; and while we are ahead of S F Austin, Jerry Palm and Crashing the Dance both pick them ahead of us.
Because I'm a Homer homer, I ignore that fact and put them where they belong. Also because this moves us up a seed.
CURRENT SEEDCAST IS:
(http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/0aTmd2Fa7WcgO/340x.jpg)
Cross-checking my work, ESPN (via BPI) now rates SFA as a 14 and us as a 13 right now (opp: Pittsburgh).
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/type/tournament (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/type/tournament)
Crashing the Dance has, as mentioned, SFA as the lowest 13 and us as the highest 14 (opp: Syracuse)
http://www.crashingthedance.com/seed.php (http://www.crashingthedance.com/seed.php)
I was hoping there would be a half-decent chance of an Illinois State winning the MVC tournament, or UTEP or someone in CUSA, while keeping an RPI worse than ours.
Doesn't look very likely. So, it does seem probable that the 16's, 15's, (and hopefully 14's!) will come from conferences worse than ours.
A 13 seed is 50% better than a 14 seed (and a 12 seed almost 50% better than a 13). But, it seems _really_ important to stay off that 15 line. A 14 seed is, historically, almost three times as likely to win a game.
aHA! I was hoping that someone might say that.
SO. I have taken the liberty of making a further chart, which I call the
"RootFer"
This new invention gives you all the conferences that matter: conferences with one or two bids that have teams better than us, or about as good, that need to be knocked off For the Sake of the Uhlan.
The conference in question is followed by a column with the leader (and teams that are also bad ideas because they would also be ahead of us). The middle column is teams that would be better but still not for certain sure because they would probably pass us if they won.
Thus, the fourth column: THE GREAT WHITE HOPE. This is the best team in the conference that it is also safe to root for! Finally we have when they hold their tourney, in chronological order for easy reference. I'll update it weekly also.
(http://oi46.tinypic.com/112bf3s.jpg)
I was under the impression that Harvard had already clinched. Similar to how Detroit can tie us, but we will host the HL tourny with one more win, I thought Harvard was in the tournament.
If Belmont loses the OVC, I think they still make the tournament. Having Murray St. in the tournament as well might hurt us more than it'll help as they might get a "conference tournament winner" bump and be seeded higher than us. Go Belmont, keep that a 1 bid league!
WCC and CUSA are already multi-bid leagues. Having a dark horse win would hurt us similar to Murray.
If Florida wins the SEC I think they could possibly be a one bid league. I'm actually rooting for that over a dark horse coming out and Florida taking a 2 line and the dark horse taking a 9 or 10 line spot.
Murray State would be seeded below us in any situation, as they are around 100 in all RPI categories.
Quote from: Kyle321n on February 25, 2013, 04:00:10 PMI was under the impression that Harvard had already clinched. Similar to how Detroit can tie us, but we will host the HL tourny with one more win, I thought Harvard was in the tournament.
Your impression is a mistaken one. Harvard is 9-1 but Princeton is 7-2. Since they go head-to-head, all Princeton needs to do is not lose otherwise; if Harvard loses no other game then they will end up tied, and a one-game playoff will determine who will get the bid.
http://www.ivyleaguesports.com/sports/mbkb/2012-13/standings (http://www.ivyleaguesports.com/sports/mbkb/2012-13/standings)
Quote from: Kyle321n on February 25, 2013, 04:00:10 PM
If Belmont loses the OVC, I think they still make the tournament. Having Murray St. in the tournament as well might hurt us more than it'll help as they might get a "conference tournament winner" bump and be seeded higher than us. Go Belmont, keep that a 1 bid league!
Murray State winning out would not make them higher than we are because we would have to be winning as well to make the Dance. Since they are 30+ behind us, plus we beat them head to head, I don't see a problem. (
EKU could be a problem, seeing as they beat us 'by 30'.)
The larger point to make here is that
at-large bids do not matter to us, because we are not in line for one. There is a finite number of them (37) and the lowest of them are seeded as far down as 12, historically. We are unfortunately not likely to make it that high.
SO, whether Belmont wins or doesn't win, they are probably still in (and probably higher than us). BUT what happens if they LOSE is that it puts someone in (probably, hopefully) LOWER than us. We have to have as many teams BELOW us as possible to get a higher seed. This means we need selected teams to pull upsets to push us into the high 13, low 12 range (depending on number of upsets).
See my above post on conference leaders. Right now we're better than THIRTEEN teams, but among them, NOT the OVC leader. We WOULD be higher than them if it weren't Belmont. SO if that "belmont" line becomes EKU or MSU, then we are better than FOURTEEN teams. Get it?
Belmont losing the conference tourney becomes Missouri's problem, for example.
Quote from: Kyle321n on February 25, 2013, 04:00:10 PM
WCC and CUSA are already multi-bid leagues. Having a dark horse win would hurt us similar to Murray.
CUSA is projected as a one-bid league, per Jerry Palm and Crashing the Dance. Memphis losing would HELP us because it would put someone else in the dance who's LOWER than us (hopefully not S Miss though).
The WCC could be a two-bid league, but again,
it doesn't matter to us! As long as someone other than Gonzaga, St. Mary, or BYU wins, we're golden again.
Quote from: Kyle321n on February 25, 2013, 04:00:10 PM
If Florida wins the SEC I think they could possibly be a one bid league. I'm actually rooting for that over a dark horse coming out and Florida taking a 2 line and the dark horse taking a 9 or 10 line spot.
That's possible, although I think Missouri's done enough to warrant selection. But again, that doesn't matter. Here it's much more dicey because at least 3 teams, and probably 3 more, could knock off Florida and still be ahead of us. But someone from the bottom half of the league (A&M) could do so and still be below us.
Although with a "name" conference, you would think that the conference tournament winner would get the "bump" you speak of. But the SEC is not that great at basketball, particularly this year.
Mostly I put the SEC on here to underscore that fact, not because I hope Alabama pulls off the SHOCKER. :)
Do you see the larger point I'm making, that we need darker horses in the tourney?
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on February 25, 2013, 04:30:26 PM
Quote from: Kyle321n on February 25, 2013, 04:00:10 PMI was under the impression that Harvard had already clinched. Similar to how Detroit can tie us, but we will host the HL tourny with one more win, I thought Harvard was in the tournament.
Your impression is a mistaken one. Harvard is 9-1 but Princeton is 7-2. Since they go head-to-head, all Princeton needs to do is not lose otherwise; if Harvard loses no other game then they will end up tied, and a one-game playoff will determine who will get the bid.
http://www.ivyleaguesports.com/sports/mbkb/2012-13/standings (http://www.ivyleaguesports.com/sports/mbkb/2012-13/standings)
Quote from: Kyle321n on February 25, 2013, 04:00:10 PM
If Belmont loses the OVC, I think they still make the tournament. Having Murray St. in the tournament as well might hurt us more than it'll help as they might get a "conference tournament winner" bump and be seeded higher than us. Go Belmont, keep that a 1 bid league!
Murray State winning out would not make them higher than we are because we would have to be winning as well to make the Dance. Since they are 30+ behind us, plus we beat them head to head, I don't see a problem. (EKU could be a problem, seeing as they beat us 'by 30'.)
The larger point to make here is that at-large bids do not matter to us, because we are not in line for one. There is a finite number of them (37) and the lowest of them are seeded as far down as 12, historically. We are unfortunately not likely to make it that high.
SO, whether Belmont wins or doesn't win, they are probably still in (and probably higher than us). BUT what happens if they LOSE is that it puts someone in (probably, hopefully) LOWER than us. We have to have as many teams BELOW us as possible to get a higher seed. This means we need selected teams to pull upsets to push us into the high 13, low 12 range (depending on number of upsets).
See my above post on conference leaders. Right now we're better than THIRTEEN teams, but among them, NOT the OVC leader. We WOULD be higher than them if it weren't Belmont. SO if that "belmont" line becomes EKU or MSU, then we are better than FOURTEEN teams. Get it?
Belmont losing the conference tourney becomes Missouri's problem, for example.
Quote from: Kyle321n on February 25, 2013, 04:00:10 PM
WCC and CUSA are already multi-bid leagues. Having a dark horse win would hurt us similar to Murray.
CUSA is projected as a one-bid league, per Jerry Palm and Crashing the Dance. Memphis losing would HELP us because it would put someone else in the dance who's LOWER than us (hopefully not S Miss though).
The WCC could be a two-bid league, but again, it doesn't matter to us! As long as someone other than Gonzaga, St. Mary, or BYU wins, we're golden again.
Quote from: Kyle321n on February 25, 2013, 04:00:10 PM
If Florida wins the SEC I think they could possibly be a one bid league. I'm actually rooting for that over a dark horse coming out and Florida taking a 2 line and the dark horse taking a 9 or 10 line spot.
That's possible, although I think Missouri's done enough to warrant selection. But again, that doesn't matter. Here it's much more dicey because at least 3 teams, and probably 3 more, could knock off Florida and still be ahead of us. But someone from the bottom half of the league (A&M) could do so and still be below us.
Although with a "name" conference, you would think that the conference tournament winner would get the "bump" you speak of. But the SEC is not that great at basketball, particularly this year.
Mostly I put the SEC on here to underscore that fact, not because I hope Alabama pulls off the SHOCKER. :)
Do you see the larger point I'm making, that we need darker horses in the tourney?
I understand what you're getting at. I just would prefer to have the conference favorites win in the single bid leagues where their RPI are under 40. Those were the ones I was pointing to.
Quote from: Kyle321n on February 25, 2013, 04:36:08 PMI just would prefer to have the conference favorites win in the single bid leagues where their RPI are under 40.
But why? You're denying Valpo a better seed!
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on February 25, 2013, 04:44:13 PM
Quote from: Kyle321n on February 25, 2013, 04:36:08 PMI just would prefer to have the conference favorites win in the single bid leagues where their RPI are under 40.
But why? You're denying Valpo a better seed!
In a single bid league, if the leader has an RPI below 40 and a different team wins their tournament, the conference might become a two-bid league. For the one-bid leagues where the leader is above 40 RPI, it might help to have a lower team win the tournament.
Quote from: covufan on February 25, 2013, 04:49:34 PMBut why? You're denying Valpo a better seed! In a single bid league, if the leader has an RPI below 40 and a different team wins their tournament, the conference might become a two-bid league. For the one-bid leagues where the leader is above 40 RPI, it might help to have a lower team win the tournament. Report
This is my point exactly.
Quote from: covufan on February 25, 2013, 04:49:34 PMIn a single bid league, if the leader has an RPI below 40 and a different team wins their tournament, the conference might become a two-bid league.
This is correct. But, so long as that second bid, the auto-bid, has a lousy RPI, that's _good_ for Valpo!
Our goal is to get as many lousy teams into the tournament as possible. That's how we can get a decent seed: fill up the 16, 15, and 14 (and, heck, why not, 13) seed lines with lousy teams.
Does this create more multi-bid conferences? Sure. But, it it puts more teams in the dance that will have lower seeds than Valpo.
Who loses? Teams on the at-large bubble. Unfortunately (? fortunately?), that's not us.
Quote from: Kyle321n on February 25, 2013, 04:00:10 PMIf Belmont loses the OVC, I think they still make the tournament. Having Murray St. in the tournament as well might hurt us more than it'll help as they might get a "conference tournament winner" bump and be seeded higher than us.
I really don't think this will happen after Murray State's losses to SIU-E and Eastern IL, 2 lowly OVC teams. The Racers also almost lost to Morehead, going to OT to beat the Eagles. MSU did rebound nicely against S.Dakota St in the bracketbuster game which is no easy task whether home or away.
Quote from: valpotx on February 25, 2013, 04:26:15 PM
Murray State would be seeded below us in any situation, as they are around 100 in all RPI categories.
If you believe RPI forecast, Murray State getting into the NCAA could actually hurt us. If they win out, while playing as many games as possible in their conference tournament, they're predicted to finish with an RPI rank of 54. For us, the prediction is 66.
Valpo is currently 67 in the RPI, if they win out, they'll be ahead of Murray State.
Quote from: chef on February 25, 2013, 05:34:40 PM
Valpo is currently 67 in the RPI, if they win out, they'll be ahead of Murray State.
That seems reasonable. All I'm saying, is that's not what rpiforecast.com says.
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Murray%20St..html (http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Murray%20St..html)
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Valparaiso.html (http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Valparaiso.html)
It seems to say that if we and Murray St. both win as many games as possible down the stretch, they're likely to end with a better RPI.
Then again, it also suggests that if we go 25-9 instead of 25-7, we'll end up with a better RPI. (A chance for road wins instead of home wins?). Maybe their engine's broken.
*shrug*
Quote from: agibson on February 25, 2013, 05:11:16 PMThis is correct. But, so long as that second bid, the auto-bid, has a lousy RPI, that's _good_ for Valpo!
Our goal is to get as many lousy teams into the tournament as possible. That's how we can get a decent seed: fill up the 16, 15, and 14 (and, heck, why not, 13) seed lines with lousy teams.
Does this create more multi-bid conferences? Sure. But, it it puts more teams in the dance that will have lower seeds than Valpo.
Who loses? Teams on the at-large bubble. Unfortunately (? fortunately?), that's not us.
+1000. and thanks.
gibson, for reasons besides this post and possibly related to Troy VIIA, you and I are cut from the same cloth. cheers.
Quote from: agibson on February 25, 2013, 05:42:17 PMThen again, it also suggests that if we go 25-9 instead of 25-7, we'll end up with a better RPI. (A chance for road wins instead of home wins?). Maybe their engine's broken. *shrug*
Maybe we shouldn't pay attention to every little website for minute details. Reminder: minute (meaning time) and minute (meaning a small thing) are spelled the same yet they are different
There are times when I am reminded that this board is full of very bright people. This is one of those times. I am really enjoying this exchange of well articulated points (seriousy). Carry on...
For the sake of an exemplar of my and agibs' position: let's say the NCAA is a 4-team tourney, with 3 auto bids and one at-large.
Also, there are only 5 teams. LOOK IT'S A HYPOTHETICAL. I DO WUT I WANT
(http://images.liveluvcreate.com/create/i/i_do_what_i_want-174488.jpg)
Anyways, the last AP poll ranked them
1. Michigan
2. Belmont
3. Northwestern
4. Valpo
5. Murray St
So, Northwestern is in line for the at-large--UM (B1G) and Belmont (OVC) are the conference leaders, and Valpo Is In A Class By Itself, of course.
(Hey, if we can have (http://mssparky.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/army-of-one.jpg) we can have a Conference of One no prob.)
BUT come conference tourney championship game time, Murray pulls off the upset, getting the OVC bid! Belmont is still pretty high, so THEY still go, and get the lone at-large bid.
NOW the NCAA bracket has to look like this:
1. Michigan
2. Belmont
3. Valpo
4. Murray St
Without playing, we rise, and now get the benefit of playing Belmont instead of Michigan.
And Northwestern, being Go-U-Northwestern, is of course consigned to the pit of Gehenna, where their worm does not die.
THIS is the benefit of the DARK HORSE THEOREM.
(https://twimg0-a.akamaihd.net/profile_images/63873258/DHC_2003_400_PIXEL_WIDE_COMICS_LOGO_K_3.jpg)
Quote from: agibson on February 25, 2013, 05:42:17 PM
Quote from: chef on February 25, 2013, 05:34:40 PM
Valpo is currently 67 in the RPI, if they win out, they'll be ahead of Murray State.
That seems reasonable. All I'm saying, is that's not what rpiforecast.com says.
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Murray%20St..html (http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Murray%20St..html)
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Valparaiso.html (http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Valparaiso.html)
It seems to say that if we and Murray St. both win as many games as possible down the stretch, they're likely to end with a better RPI.
Then again, it also suggests that if we go 25-9 instead of 25-7, we'll end up with a better RPI. (A chance for road wins instead of home wins?). Maybe their engine's broken.
*shrug*
This wouldn't make sense. Murray State has a much higher chance of playing some crappy RPI team in their conference tournament than we do. They basically have 3 decent RPI teams, and a bunch of junk in the OVC. I don't believe their tournament protects the higher seeds as much as the HL does as well
Their 1 and 2 seeds also get a double-bye to the semifinals.
Quote from: StlVUFan on February 26, 2013, 03:28:43 AM
Their 1 and 2 seeds also get a double-bye to the semifinals.
How exactly does that work with the two divisions in the OVC and the double bye?
Just curious.
Do the two first place teams from each division get the #1 and #2 seeds and the double bye?
Or may the #1 and #2 seeds come from the same division?
How are the #1 and #2 seeds determined?
Do the divisions not count for determining seeds?
If yes, what are the divisions for?
Quote from: bbtds on February 26, 2013, 05:35:38 AMDo the two first place teams from each division get the #1 and #2 seeds and the double bye?
Or may the #1 and #2 seeds come from the same division?
How are the #1 and #2 seeds determined?
Do the divisions not count for determining seeds?
If yes, what are the divisions for?
I can't believe I'm spending several minutes of my life looking into this arcana, but, I suppose given some of the things I DO spend precious moments of my life on this board, I guess I can't complain much to people to whom such things are visible, right?
After all, from whom else would you learn that it is an UNACCEPTABLE USAGE to refer to the Morehead State University Eagles as "
MOREHEAD"? (p.3, "OVC Style Guide",
OVC Basketball Media Guide, Nashville, TN: OVC Sports Publications, 2012)
(stifle the giggles)
http://issuu.com/ovcsports/docs/2012-13_ovc_basketball_media_guide?mode=window&backgroundColor=%23222222 (http://issuu.com/ovcsports/docs/2012-13_ovc_basketball_media_guide?mode=window&backgroundColor=%23222222)
OK. This is the first year divisional play has been instituted. Similar to other sports, the winners of each division are guaranteed one of the top 2 seeds, then everyone else gets 3 through 8 (3-4 with a bye) (p. 18,
ibid.)
Ties are broken like so: http://ovcsports.sidearmsports.com/documents/2013/2/20/tiebreaker.pdf (http://ovcsports.sidearmsports.com/documents/2013/2/20/tiebreaker.pdf)
Bracket looks like this: http://ovcsports.sidearmsports.com/documents/2012/10/12/2013%20OVC%20MBB%20Bracket.pdf (http://ovcsports.sidearmsports.com/documents/2012/10/12/2013%20OVC%20MBB%20Bracket.pdf)
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on February 26, 2013, 06:50:44 AM
Quote from: bbtds on February 26, 2013, 05:35:38 AMDo the two first place teams from each division get the #1 and #2 seeds and the double bye?
Or may the #1 and #2 seeds come from the same division?
How are the #1 and #2 seeds determined?
Do the divisions not count for determining seeds?
If yes, what are the divisions for?
I can't believe I'm spending several minutes of my life looking into this arcana, but, I suppose given some of the things I DO spend precious moments of my life on this board, I guess I can't complain much to people to whom such things are visible, right?
After all, from whom else would you learn that it is an UNACCEPTABLE USAGE to refer to the Morehead State University Eagles as "MOREHEAD"? (p.3, "OVC Style Guide", OVC Basketball Media Guide, Nashville, TN: OVC Sports Publications, 2012)
(stifle the giggles)
http://issuu.com/ovcsports/docs/2012-13_ovc_basketball_media_guide?mode=window&backgroundColor=%23222222 (http://issuu.com/ovcsports/docs/2012-13_ovc_basketball_media_guide?mode=window&backgroundColor=%23222222)
OK. This is the first year divisional play has been instituted. Similar to other sports, the winners of each division are guaranteed one of the top 2 seeds, then everyone else gets 3 through 8 (3-4 with a bye) (p. 18, ibid.)
Ties are broken like so: http://ovcsports.sidearmsports.com/documents/2013/2/20/tiebreaker.pdf (http://ovcsports.sidearmsports.com/documents/2013/2/20/tiebreaker.pdf)
Bracket looks like this: http://ovcsports.sidearmsports.com/documents/2012/10/12/2013%20OVC%20MBB%20Bracket.pdf (http://ovcsports.sidearmsports.com/documents/2012/10/12/2013%20OVC%20MBB%20Bracket.pdf)
Thanks, Apostle, that explains a lot and I appreciated your effort to quench my curiosity.
The real surprise, here, for me, was that four teams, 1/3 of all OVC competing schools don't even get a chance to play in the OVC tournament in Nashville.
Playing the OVC tourney in Nashville must be a huge advantage for Belmont and Tenn State,
Quote from: bbtds on February 26, 2013, 07:39:42 AMThe real surprise, here, for me, was that four teams, 1/3 of all OVC competing schools don't even get a chance to play in the OVC tournament in Nashville.
I agree. It almost seems unkind--because you wouldn't expect them to threaten anyone anyway, but it is nice as a reward.
not like all those years ago when only 8 teams in a 9-team Mid-Con made the tourney :/
Here's how the B1G does it with 12: not so many freakin' byes. Of course, the obvious retort is that they are not needing to protect all the seeding.
POETRY
http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/big10/sports/m-baskbl/auto_pdf/2012-13/misc_non_event/2013_mbb_bracket.pdf (http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/big10/sports/m-baskbl/auto_pdf/2012-13/misc_non_event/2013_mbb_bracket.pdf)
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on February 26, 2013, 11:48:16 AM
Quote from: bbtds on February 26, 2013, 07:39:42 AMThe real surprise, here, for me, was that four teams, 1/3 of all OVC competing schools don't even get a chance to play in the OVC tournament in Nashville.
I agree. It almost seems unkind--because you wouldn't expect them to threaten anyone anyway, but it is nice as a reward.
not like all those years ago when only 8 teams in a 9-team Mid-Con made the tourney :/
Here's how the B1G does it with 12: not so many freakin' byes. Of course, the obvious retort is that they are not needing to protect all the seeding.
POETRY
http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/big10/sports/m-baskbl/auto_pdf/2012-13/misc_non_event/2013_mbb_bracket.pdf (http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/big10/sports/m-baskbl/auto_pdf/2012-13/misc_non_event/2013_mbb_bracket.pdf)
I've always liked the way the B1G does it. Adding the 12th team just caused their 5th seed to play an extra game, which really shouldn't hurt them since the 12th team will be Penn St or Nebraska year after year.
Still, the only team to ever win 4 games in 4 days (since its institution in 1998) was 2001 Iowa (I remember that well!), so that's a punch in the 5 seed stomach.
Although, since then, only one seed below 1 or 2 has ever won. So, they probably weren't going to anyway.
This year: going to be amazing to watch.
Teams to root against, the sequel/update:
conference leaders that are in our RPI neighborhoodwhere is that exactly around 66.
Coming off of owning the HL reg'lar season the way we used to own the In-Continent Conference
Toughest game left final vs Det (ducks the Hand of Fate)
Chance of winning out 72% of statistics are made up on the spot
Biggest threat still turnovers. also flagrant elbows and bad tattoos.
--
Davidson (78)Coming off of? now 14 straight wins over their horrible horrible conference (17-1 on the year)
How horrible is it? Their neighbor is the Big Sky Conference.
That's pretty horrible? Oh you haven't heard the worst of it.
Biggest threat? #151 College of Charleston
Did we catch them? Yes, because for us both to be in the dance they will have to beat their stanky skanky conference while we will have had two RPI-boosting pills.
Worst of it? IS STILL THE FACT THIS TEAM LOST TO
MILWAUKEE, PEOPLE, THEY SHOULD NOT BE ALLOWED TO GO TO THE DANCE
EVEN ESPECIALLY WITH BAPTISTS
(http://profile.ak.fbcdn.net/hprofile-ak-snc6/211204_226887184007397_5535526_q.jpg)
--
Stephen F Austin (74)Coming off of? a tough loss at home to NW St! TODAY! 63-62!!!NOOOOOOO
Wait check that? thought i caught a final there were still 11 seconds left and NOOOOO 64-63 W
Did we catch them? maybe not. they won their toughest game left.
Statistics to make me feel better about that? 71.4% of made-up stats are more convincing to 3 sig figs(http://media.comicvine.com/uploads/7/71700/1600766-ffffuuuu.jpg)
Most people are unaware that Texas invented the F-word. Or at least perfected it.--
South Dakota State U (72)Coming off of? Winning their conference but losing two non-con, including Murray St, but also #280 Cal-Bakersfield. ouch.gif
Dear Racers: your winning this game worked so well for us on so many different levels. Yes. Both of them.
So did we catch them? YEAH. caught and passed.Biggest conference threat? Western Illinois or Oakland (107ishes)
(http://www.easymemes.com/uploads/memes/76127_5WxLsg5BRmTqo7l.jpg)
--Bucknell (52)Coming off of? A highly successful end to their season.
How successful is it? They didn't lose any of the games.
Biggest conference threat? #106 Lehigh
Will we catch them? nope. because a) it's too late and b) if they lose the tourney, it won't be them we've caught
(http://image.mcomet.com/mm_w/2008/07/06/656/1_0_2008_07_09_02_20_36_40625.jpg)
BONUS SPEAKING OF NERDS (NOT YOU WEATHER)Harvard (87)Coming off of? LOSING TO PRINCETON LIKE WE NEEDED 58-53
This means something to me why Well, because we win, no matter if Harvard still wins the Ivy, because now they're enough behind us not to be a threat.
HAHA SUCKIT HARVARD. I know.
From the Encyclopedia of Chicago:http://www.encyclopedia.chicagohistory.org/pages/2163.html (http://www.encyclopedia.chicagohistory.org/pages/2163.html)
Quote...Valparaiso University (VU). By 1907 it was the second largest university in the country, second only to Harvard. (The University of Chicago was third...
author: one Melvin Doering(http://www.easymemes.com/uploads/memes/76131_97z7p9w9ptwNmAv.jpg)
Just wanted to put it out there that my conference season wrap-up blog has been kindly approved and published on the blog page--give it a view here!
http://www.valpofanzone.com/2013/03/05/horizon-league-the-con-in-prose-2013/ (http://www.valpofanzone.com/2013/03/05/horizon-league-the-con-in-prose-2013/)
thanks.
WHERE WE'RE AT: 24-7. 23-7 to the eyes of Rippy. Done with the reg'lar season.
WHAT'S HAPPENED SINCE THE LAST TIME YOU ACTUALLY UPDATED THIS: WON ALL THE GAMES!
WHADDATHEY THINK ABOUT US NOW?
RealTimeRPI: 61 (of 347 D-I) RealTime (http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_281_Men.html) UP 19!
RPIForecast: 60 RPIForecast (http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Valparaiso.html) UP 20!
Sagarin: 68 with a rating of 80.09 (first time cracking 80 this year!) Sagarin (http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt1213.htm) UP 9!
ESPN / BPI: 66 with a rating of 69.9 ESPN BPI (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/teamId/2674) UP 7!
Average the 4 and come up with 64, or up 14 places!!!
WHAT ABOUT STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE?
176 (RealTimeRPI) up 15!
179 (RPIForecast) up 15!
188 (Sagarin) up 5!
139 (ESPN BPI) down 1
Average of 170, or up 8 slots!
HAHA MORE BONUS FACTAGE: the CONFERENCE TOURNEY!
RPIForecast now comes in two flavors, with or without conference tourneys, but obviously only one matters now: joy!!! (http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Valparaiso.html) (in Sven Hoëk voice (http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_mJ4lc_Q9Q6k/SORL0YMGQxI/AAAAAAAARpo/hfpm9WKA74Y/s400/Rnssven.gif))
Probability of auto-bid--previous % in parens
Valparaiso 59.48% (46.66)
Detroit 30.92% (38.29)
Green Bay 4.66% (9.91)
WSU 3.80% (3.56)
YSU 0.31% (0.58)
UIC 0.17% (0.44)
Loyola 0.58% (0.45)
CSU 0.08% (0.10)
Milwaukee 0.00%. Yesterday was just a blip, sadly.
So...things are looking up.
(http://www.thewareaglereader.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Just-Win-Baby1.jpg)
SeedCast The Third
Here: my spreadsheet of the current conference leader of all the conferences below us.
The question: are they higher than Valpo?
I weight RPI * 3 and also average Sagarin and BPI to simulate committee considerations like "last 12 D1 games", etc. If so, what are their chances of winning the conference tourney? If not them, are there other teams in the conference that could be ranked above us were they to get the autobid?
(http://oi46.tinypic.com/24wsu2p.jpg)
Roughly speaking:
--If you're higher than 6 teams, you're a 15. (Why: because 4 16 seeds get "1st round" games + 2 more go right to what bbtds calls "the 2nd rd")
--If you're higher than 10, you're a 14.
--If you're higher than 14, you're a 13.
Cutting the suspense, if you're allergic to sheets with numbers: we're safely higher than 13 teams--indeed, conferences, because it won't matter who wins them--they won't pass us unless we pretty much lose all our remaining games but still recover and win the tournament; and while we are ahead of S F Austin, Jerry Palm and Crashing the Dance both pick them ahead of us because
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Y2uqc2-Ddps/TjGbORtNhuI/AAAAAAAAAJU/lnJ7Ym8_qNY/s1600/rod+smart.jpg)
Because I'm a Homer homer, I ignore that fact and kept SFA where they belong. Also because this moves us up a seed.
CURRENT SEEDCAST IS:
(http://www.eurocupbasketball.com/resourceserver/14799/d65c5824-e1ca-4139-bf72-e1b1f465110e/e63/rglang/en-US/filename/d65.jpg)
Cross-checking my work, ESPN (via BPI) now rates SFA as a 14 and us as a 13 right now (opp: NEW MEXICO REMATCH...wait, they're not supposed to let that happen necessarily, are they?).
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/type/tournament (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/type/tournament)
Crashing the Dance has, as mentioned, SFA as the lowest 13 and us as the highest 14 (opp: Marquette)
http://www.crashingthedance.com/seed.php (http://www.crashingthedance.com/seed.php)
Middle Tennessee, Belmont, Akron, and La Tech also teams to root against. If one team from that list and either Bucknell or SF Austin loses, Valpo would likely get a 13 seed. Of course, the Crusaders would need to win the HL Tournament for any of this to matter.
"RootFer 2"
This new invention gives you all the conferences that matter: conferences with one or two bids that have teams better than us, or about as good, that need to be knocked off For the Sake of the Uhlan.
In the first table, the conference in question is followed by a column with the leader (and teams that are also bad ideas because they would also be ahead of us). The middle column is teams that would be better but still not for certain sure because they would probably pass us if they won.
Thus, the fourth column: THE GREAT WHITE HOPE. This is the best team in the conference that it is also safe to root for! Finally we have when they hold their tourney, in chronological order for easy reference. I'll update it weekly also.
The second table is all the conferences that are already in the rearview, regardless.
The third table is the teams it's safe to root for in the major conferences.
(http://oi45.tinypic.com/k385ds.jpg)
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on March 05, 2013, 04:45:30 PM2 more go right to what bbtds calls "the 2nd rd")
I didn't start calling the round after the First Four the 2nd Round. That comes from the NCAA. We just happen to be in the same city. Maybe because I know some people that work at the NCAA and the NFHS I feel a proclivity to go along with what the NCAA calls things. While a number of you on the board love to pooh pooh the NCAA. By the way Valpo helps make up the whole body that is the NCAA because they are a member institution.
Do you think there are some schools that detest Mark LaBarbera because he's on the Baseball Tournament Selection Committee and some of his decisions have led to some schools not making the NCAA baseball tournament?
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on March 05, 2013, 04:11:57 PM
Just wanted to put it out there that my conference season wrap-up blog has been kindly approved and published on the blog page--give it a view here!
http://www.valpofanzone.com/2013/03/05/horizon-league-the-con-in-prose-2013/ (http://www.valpofanzone.com/2013/03/05/horizon-league-the-con-in-prose-2013/)
thanks.
Outstanding piece!
Quote from: wh on March 07, 2013, 05:42:48 AMOutstanding piece!
Thanks! I need to give you a shout-out in all my stuff! ;)
(http://media.tumblr.com/047cad51a65cde433b5091a5bba8a878/tumblr_inline_mikc4x4qV01qz4rgp.gif)
WHERE WE'RE AT: 0-0
WHAT'S HAPPENED SINCE THE LAST TIME YOU ACTUALLY UPDATED THIS: A plethora of graduation open houses, a myriad of Drew coaching rumors, wiping the booger that was Loyola on the restroom wall that is Missouri Valley, Valpo trolling Detroit via Oakland, the immolation of Miley Cyrus' career
WHADDATHEY THINK ABOUT US NOW?
RealTimeRPI: 65 (of 347 D-I) RealTime (power ratings not rpi at this point but possibly just the same as last year) (http://realtimerpi.com/ncaab/horiz_Men.html)
RPIForecast: 136 RPIForecast (http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Valparaiso.html)
Sagarin: nothing yet with a rating of 79.34 Sagarin (http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt1213.htm)
ESPN / BPI: ...hasn't started yet. probably a wise choice, as the longer they dither, the less likely they are to be wrong! right? how very Millennial.
ridiculous: 2 nothings, 1 last year, and a 136. So...136.
WHAT ABOUT STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE?
181 (RealTimeRPI)
324 (RPIForecast)
(Sagarin) nuthin
(ESPN BPI) yep
Average of 253.
WHERE THEY THINK WE'LL END UP?
RealTimeRPI: ...they have as much on this as you have after paying your health insurance premium
RPIForecast: 15-13 (9-7 conf)
RPIForecast projects an end-season RPI of 136 and SOS of 143. I know the former seems identical to the above, but right now they have us at 324, and that's ridiculous. of course, so are early-season rpi numbers.
BONUS RPI FORECAST FACT: We have a 0.02% chance of going 23-5!
OUT-OF-THE-BONUS: Also the same chance of going 5-23. MATH
% of a win next ten+ daze:
vs MSU 62% (+3.7 pts)
@ Illinois 16% (-11.8 pts) (NEWSFLASH: toughest game of year also NEWSFLASH home vs UWM for easiest--78%)
@ OHIO 31% (-5.8 pts)
Both RPIForecast and RealTimeRPI have the HL 12th among conferences.
Here's how RPIForecast sees it shaking out before anybody tips off in a game that counts:
projRPI team projSOS record conf current RPI
127 Cleveland St. 139 15-14 9-7 52
134 Oakland 82 13-15 8-8 214
136 Wright St. 256 18-10 10-6 347
141 Green Bay 195 15-9 9-7 105
148 Valparaiso 143 15-13 9-7 324
163 Detroit 140 14-15 8-8 70
177 Youngstown St.183 14-14 8-8 351
215 Illinois Chicago 164 11-15 7-9 119
245 Milwaukee 204 11-18 6-10 171
*You are allowed to wonder how the collective in-conference record is +4 over .500
Non con:
WSU 9-3 TOUGHEST: @24 Georgetown 13% EASIEST: vs.330 Alcorn St 98%
CSU 7-6 TOUGHEST: @10 Kentucky duh 7% EASIEST: vs.243 Ball St 81%
Valpo 6-6 TOUGHEST: @62 Illinois 16% EASIEST: vs.210 James Madison 75%
YSU 6-6 TOUGHEST: @41 Pitt 9% EASIEST: @(!)326 UMKC 85%
Milwaukee 6-7 TOUGHEST: @19 Wisconsin 3% EASIEST: neut.330 Alabama St 82%
Detroit 6-7 TOUGHEST: @24 Connecticut 9% EASIEST: vs.278 Bethune Cookman 84%
Green Bay 5-3 TOUGHEST: vs.(!)19 Wisconsin 25% EASIEST: vs.252 Tennessee Tech 86%
UIC 4-6 TOUGHEST: neut.62 Illinois 16% EASIEST: @(!)300 Eastern Illinois 65%
Oakland 4-8 TOUGHEST: @18 North Carolina; @16 Gonzaga; neut.11 Michigan St; 7% EASIEST: vs.227 Eastern Michigan 28%
BONUS: A look at (effective-)conference mate #156 Central Florida
At home we have a 61% chance; on the road, 38%. Basically we're equal--the difference is the site.
UCF predicted to be cellar-dwellers in the American, ahead of only Rutgers (good luck in the B1G, btw! heh.gif)
12-15, 6-12 conference.
one small thing... we are playing Ball State (12/4)... so wouldn't that be our weakest non-con opponent at #243?
Sagarin starting rankings:
http://sagarin.com/sports/cbsend.htm (http://sagarin.com/sports/cbsend.htm)
Massey College Basketball comparison:
http://www.masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm (http://www.masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm)
Teamrankings:
http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/ranking/predictive-by-other (http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/ranking/predictive-by-other)
Massey:
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=cb&sub=NCAA (http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=cb&sub=NCAA) I
For predictions, Massey has us going 20-10 in the 30 games scheduled:
http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8361&s=203290 (http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8361&s=203290)
The RealTimeRPI site GAMER has us going 22-6 in Division I games:
http://realtimerpi.com/ncaab/281_Men.html?Valparaiso (http://realtimerpi.com/ncaab/281_Men.html?Valparaiso)
Teamrankings has us going 16-14 and 8-8 in HL play: (scroll down to HL Projections)
http://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/projections/standings/ (http://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/projections/standings/)
Quote from: talksalot on November 08, 2013, 05:43:21 PMone small thing... we are playing Ball State (12/4)... so wouldn't that be our weakest non-con opponent at #243?
My guess would be E. Tennessee St. Ball State, ETSU, Loyola Marymount and James Madison are all lowest on someone's rankings.
And Teamrankings stats and stuff for toughest games, easiest games and projected win%
http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/valparaiso-crusaders/projections (http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/valparaiso-crusaders/projections)