The Valparaiso Beacons Fan Zone Forum

Just trying to pull this all together in one place...I will update as the week goes on (I'll try to update as games end, as well as after ALL games are done for the day to get an accurate "end of day" RPI). Records are D1 games only.

I included the "majors" in here on the off chance that an awful team makes a crazy run.


Updated through all games on 3/16

Based strictly on RPI, there are currently 15 teams with "locked in" bids sitting below Valpo (Currently RPI #58) on the S-Curve, though several are very close. Remember, only auto bid teams will affect this number, all at-large teams will fall ahead of Valpo on the S-Curve. All teams remaining to play their championship games (4 conferences) would fall ahead of Valpo on the S-Curve.

There MAY still be a chance that we move up or down a slot as there are four teams between 56-62.

PREDICTION: 13 SEED


To earn a 12: Need to be ahead of 18 teams
To earn a 13: Need to be ahead of 14 teams
To earn a 14: Need to be ahead of 10 teams
To earn a 15: Need to be ahead of 6 teams

Monday March 11
Southern   #1 Davidson (67) vs. #3 College of Charleston (131) 7 PM (ESPN2)   CUMONG COUGARZ!!!   
Colonial   #1 Northeastern (154) vs. #3 James Madison (190) 7 PM (NBC Sports)
Sun Belt   #4 Florida International (109) vs. #6 Western Kentucky (166) 7 PM (ESPN)      
WCC     #1 Gonzaga (10) vs. #2 St. Mary's (31) 9 PM (ESPN)
MAAC      #4 Iona (100) vs. #6 Manhattan (180) 9 PM (ESPN2)

Well CoC sure didn't help.

I found an amazing new site that will feed every seed junkie's habit until Selection Sunday:

Bracket Matrix.
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/ (http://www.bracketmatrix.com/)

It was bound to happen.  The site cross-references at least NINETY-TWO HYPOTHETICAL BRACKETS and averages the seed.  You can even click on the top row and view each of them individually, but why would you want to? :)

Right now we are the lowest of the 13ths, at 13.38 average, but just .01 behind our new nemesis Mr. Stephen F. Austin.  Just a few upsets from a 12 seed! :)

We need a couple upsets in the WAC. Denver, NM St, and L Tech all have comparable RPI's to us. There are a bunch of teams grouped together in the 50's and 60's in RPI including Denver, NM St, L Tech, Akron, Bucknell, and SF Austin. A couple of these teams have a "signature" win (SF @ Oklahoma, Akron vs. Midd Tenn St, Bucknell vs. LaSalle) but we don't have anything that sets us apart from the rest. I will continue to cheer for the upsets (Nebraska for the Big Ten Title!) but I think we end up a 13 when all is said and done. Honestly, if we are the highest 13 or the lowest 12 will it make a difference? We would still be in the 4/13, 5/12 pod of the bracket. We either have to beat a 4 or 5 in the opening round followed by a 5 or 4 in the second round.

Quote from: valpocleveland on March 13, 2013, 01:44:03 PM
Honestly, if we are the highest 13 or the lowest 12 will it make a difference? We would still be in the 4/13, 5/12 pod of the bracket. We either have to beat a 4 or 5 in the opening round followed by a 5 or 4 in the second round.

A valid question--not a huge difference, but a difference nonetheless.  Imagine if, in 1998 we had played instead:
--also-4th seeded Maryland (we saw a year later how that turned out, albeit under different circumstances)
--also-4th seeded Michigan St (we saw two years later how that turned out, albeit under more different circumstances)
--5th seeded Syracuse or 4th seeded New Mexico?  No easy outs there.

It's going to come down to individual matchups, of course.

That chart shows average seeds is awesome.   

If it predicts right, we get a #13 and a likely trip to Kansas City to play KState or Okla St.   

Ohio State in Dayton might be best draw for possible Valpo fan travel.     Please not Michigan.

Prime time in Kansas City would be perfect for me.

http://bracketmatrix.com/ (http://bracketmatrix.com/)

OOFFFF got bumped down to a 14 seed with New Mexico St getting a 13 seed. Might need some help, but I believe there's still tons of room for help.

New Mexico St has to win twice.

Akron has to win twice without their best player.

Stephen F. Austin has to win twice.

So these teams have to go 6-0 for Valpo to be in danger of being a 14 seed.

On the plus side we are now a 12 to two prognosticators, and that hadn't happened yet:
http://thecatchandshoot.com/ncaa-tournament-bracketology-2/ (http://thecatchandshoot.com/ncaa-tournament-bracketology-2/)
http://herestotheacc.blogspot.com/ (http://herestotheacc.blogspot.com/)

Interesting that one of the blogs that has Valpo as a 12 has them playing Butler... very very interesting...

Brian

I am just going to reiterate what I said just before the home game against Detroit.  "If we win out, we are a 12 seed.  If we lose one, we are a 13 seed.  If we lose two, we are a 14 seed."   Well, we lost against Detroit, so we are GOING to be a 13 seed.  had we won that game we would have been a 12 seed. Had we lost at GB, we would have been a 14. 

Last Lunardi bracket had us #13 in San Jose playing Arizona #4.    Wisconsin seeded #5 in same bracket.    That is a remotely possible for VU to the Sweet 16.

I would LOVE to see Wisconsin beat Indiana today and move up to a #4 so we could draw them.   They are slow enough for us to beat them.  Wisconsin might have risen to a #4 already after beating Michigan but doubtful.

Quote from: crusadermoe on March 16, 2013, 12:55:41 PM
Last Lunardi bracket had us #13 in San Jose playing Arizona #4.    Wisconsin seeded #5 in same bracket.    That is a remotely possible for VU to the Sweet 16.

I would LOVE to see Wisconsin beat Indiana today and move up to a #4 so we could draw them.   They are slow enough for us to beat them.  Wisconsin might have risen to a #4 already after beating Michigan but doubtful.

Wisconsin is wright State but more over the top. They're the most painful boring team to watch and play very fundamental basketball. They are very beatable due to their poor offense, and they don't take advantage off forcing turnovers. They slow the game down and play excellent defense and limit their own mistakes.

I was in Tempe when we played AZ in the dance... Tony Vilcinskis and gang going down in a blaze... in the last game of day 2... Not a fan of the placement geographically ... but I can't complain about the pairing... I believe Washington would be our last PAC 10/12 opponent...  I really hope Auburn Hills, Dayton or Lexington... and spousal permission...

Quote from: talksalot on March 16, 2013, 06:02:00 PMand spousal permission...

"...uh...I have to go see a man about a horse. See you in a few days!"
<JB runs out door to already running and packed car, throws it in reverse then screams down the street>

Quote from: ValpoHoops on March 16, 2013, 07:14:54 PM"...uh...I have to go see a man about a horse. See you in a few days!"

literally laughing.  thank you.

Lunardi now has Valpo in San Jose playing #4 Marquette.     

Other #4s are K-State, Michigan, and Wisconsin.      I got my wish for Wisconsin to beat the Hoosiers, now if we can just draw them for the first round........!

If anybody wants to chat about the seedlings or bracket in general, I'll be in the chat room during the show.

USAToday updated:

Valpo #14 (was #13) v. #3 Michigan -- Auburn Hills

NM State #13 v. #4 Marquette -- San Jose

« Last Edit: Today at 08:05:47 AM by VULB#62 »

Quote from: vuweathernerd on March 17, 2013, 09:00:59 AM
If anybody wants to chat about the seedlings or bracket in general, I'll be in the chat room during the show.

It's nice to know that someone else on the forum shares my dual interest of gardening and VU basketball. :thumbsup:

Quote from: humbleopinion on March 17, 2013, 09:37:37 AM

Quote from: vuweathernerd on March 17, 2013, 09:00:59 AM
If anybody wants to chat about the seedlings or bracket in general, I'll be in the chat room during the show.

It's nice to know that someone else on the forum shares my dual interest of gardening and VU basketball. :thumbsup:

Darn autocorrect. I didn't even see that... That's what I get for trying to post that from my iPad.

Would love to see Valpo play K-State in Kansas City (4 vs. 13).  It is realistic, though I could see SD State getting the matchup with K-State in Kansas City.  K-State is a far better matchup for Valpo than Michigan or Wisconsin.

Quote from: vu84v2 on March 17, 2013, 09:55:59 AMWould love to see Valpo play K-State in Kansas City (4 vs. 13).

IN PRIME TIME
:thumbsup:

Quote from: humbleopinion on March 17, 2013, 09:37:37 AMIt's nice to know that someone else on the forum shares my dual interest of gardening and VU basketball.

THANK YOU so much for catching that.  my eye just autocorrected too.  my day has been made.

(http://www.wallyhood.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Seedlings.jpg)(http://newspaper.li/static/96e2250f397d0fbdeb51c38890a25b88.jpg)

as of right now, loonardi has k-state in kc playing bucknell. we're back to the marquette matchup in san jose. and stl - i think southwest flies into that area, so i can't imagine it would get too terribly expensive. the hotels and food on the other hand...

I just looked and he has us a 13 playing St. Louis in San Jose

I've not seen a concise version of the "rules" lately, if ever.

But surely, in the first round, they avoid regular season re-matches.

Quote from: agibson on March 17, 2013, 12:46:50 PM
I've not seen a concise version of the "rules" lately, if ever.

But surely, in the first round, they avoid regular season re-matches.

i believe so. and besides that, slu has jumped 2 lines in the last 20 minutes, despite still only being in the first half of their game at the barclay's center against vcu.

Quote from: crusadermoe on March 17, 2013, 07:33:37 AM
Lunardi now has Valpo in San Jose playing #4 Marquette.     

Other #4s are K-State, Michigan, and Wisconsin.      I got my wish for Wisconsin to beat the Hoosiers, now if we can just draw them for the first round........!

Quote from: a3uge on March 16, 2013, 05:34:26 PM

Quote from: crusadermoe on March 16, 2013, 12:55:41 PM
Last Lunardi bracket had us #13 in San Jose playing Arizona #4.    Wisconsin seeded #5 in same bracket.    That is a remotely possible for VU to the Sweet 16.

I would LOVE to see Wisconsin beat Indiana today and move up to a #4 so we could draw them.   They are slow enough for us to beat them.  Wisconsin might have risen to a #4 already after beating Michigan but doubtful.

Wisconsin is wright State but more over the top. They're the most painful boring team to watch and play very fundamental basketball. They are very beatable due to their poor offense, and they don't take advantage off forcing turnovers. They slow the game down and play excellent defense and limit their own mistakes.

With Valpo's propensity for turnovers I don't see anyway that Valpo wins over Wisconsin. The score may be low and seem like Valpo is always in reach of making a run but with the difference in number of actual shots due to Valpo having many more turnovers, Wisconsin would win by their usual margin from 5 to 15.  Against Wisconsin, the run would never come and frustrate us as Valpo fans to no end.

Quote from: bbtds on March 17, 2013, 01:26:33 PM

Quote from: crusadermoe on March 17, 2013, 07:33:37 AM
Lunardi now has Valpo in San Jose playing #4 Marquette.     

Other #4s are K-State, Michigan, and Wisconsin.      I got my wish for Wisconsin to beat the Hoosiers, now if we can just draw them for the first round........!

Quote from: a3uge on March 16, 2013, 05:34:26 PM

Quote from: crusadermoe on March 16, 2013, 12:55:41 PM
Last Lunardi bracket had us #13 in San Jose playing Arizona #4.    Wisconsin seeded #5 in same bracket.    That is a remotely possible for VU to the Sweet 16.

I would LOVE to see Wisconsin beat Indiana today and move up to a #4 so we could draw them.   They are slow enough for us to beat them.  Wisconsin might have risen to a #4 already after beating Michigan but doubtful.

Wisconsin is wright State but more over the top. They're the most painful boring team to watch and play very fundamental basketball. They are very beatable due to their poor offense, and they don't take advantage off forcing turnovers. They slow the game down and play excellent defense and limit their own mistakes.

With Valpo's propensity for turnovers I don't see anyway that Valpo wins over Wisconsin. The score may be low and seem like Valpo is always in reach of making a run but with the difference in number of actual shots due to Valpo having many more turnovers, Wisconsin would win by their usual margin from 5 to 15.  Against Wisconsin, the run would never come and frustrate us as Valpo fans to no end.

Wisconsin is 276th in the nation in defensive turnover percentage.

Quote from: vusupporter on March 17, 2013, 01:32:07 PM

Quote from: bbtds on March 17, 2013, 01:26:33 PM

Quote from: crusadermoe on March 17, 2013, 07:33:37 AM
Lunardi now has Valpo in San Jose playing #4 Marquette.     

Other #4s are K-State, Michigan, and Wisconsin.      I got my wish for Wisconsin to beat the Hoosiers, now if we can just draw them for the first round........!

Quote from: a3uge on March 16, 2013, 05:34:26 PM

Quote from: crusadermoe on March 16, 2013, 12:55:41 PM
Last Lunardi bracket had us #13 in San Jose playing Arizona #4.    Wisconsin seeded #5 in same bracket.    That is a remotely possible for VU to the Sweet 16.

I would LOVE to see Wisconsin beat Indiana today and move up to a #4 so we could draw them.   They are slow enough for us to beat them.  Wisconsin might have risen to a #4 already after beating Michigan but doubtful.

Wisconsin is wright State but more over the top. They're the most painful boring team to watch and play very fundamental basketball. They are very beatable due to their poor offense, and they don't take advantage off forcing turnovers. They slow the game down and play excellent defense and limit their own mistakes.

With Valpo's propensity for turnovers I don't see anyway that Valpo wins over Wisconsin. The score may be low and seem like Valpo is always in reach of making a run but with the difference in number of actual shots due to Valpo having many more turnovers, Wisconsin would win by their usual margin from 5 to 15.  Against Wisconsin, the run would never come and frustrate us as Valpo fans to no end.

Wisconsin is 276th in the nation in defensive turnover percentage.

As a Badger fan as well, I really don't want to draw them. As supporter said, they don't force turnovers...they force you into late clock bad shots....which might as well be turnovers.

Following the A-10 championship game, Lunardi has us still in San Jose, but now playing SLU. Don't think committee will do that since we played SLU this past December. Try again, Joe.

I don't know who's in charge of updating the online ESPN bracketology page, but nothing's change for a while. Ole Miss is still listed in "Last 4 In" even though they got the SEC autobid. BTW, how much lazier would it be to line up with the Rebels for the 2nd round?  ;D

Quote from: ValpoHoops on March 17, 2013, 01:53:58 PM
As a Badger fan as well, I really don't want to draw them. As supporter said, they don't force turnovers...they force you into late clock bad shots....which might as well be turnovers.

They really ought to make" bad shots late in the shot clock" a turnover. It would be sort of like calling a penalty against a quarterback for intentional grounding.

So with New Mexico as a 2 or a 3 and St Lou as a 4 (maybe 1st#5) there are a number of teams in between with whom we can be competitive. If we stay on the 13 line (and we should) and if Michigan stays on the 3 line (and they should) it looks like it could be narrowed down to Syracuse, K-St, Arizona, Marquette, and Wisconsin in no particular order. Anybody out of that group would come to me as a slight surprise but who knows what they might pull out of their behind.

from bracket tips on ESPN (just aired)...

"a number 13 seed has beaten a number 4 seed in each of the last 4 years."

I think we got ripped off.   14     really....

You guys just got the shaft.

A 14 is terrible.

Quote from: Smj on March 17, 2013, 05:08:31 PM
I think we got ripped off.   14     really....

Me too. But let's see who the other 13 and 14 seeds are and who they are playing. Yikes! Michigan State again. Lots of payback on the line but we'll need a huge effort to win in the Detroit area against the Spartans.

The chip has just landed on the shoulders of our lads.  MSU is gonna be tough, but at least we have a 'slight' to help motivate the team.

Summit (SDSU) drew 13.  COME ON MAN!  Summit > Horizon?  Please.  Where's the respect?

Respect:  CBS sends cameras to a bunch of 16 seeds  ??? ???

Are you kidding me. How do they come up with that matchup. One of the last teams I wanted to see.  Was Michigan St the top 3 seed meaning we were the last 14?

Quote from: VULB#62 on March 17, 2013, 05:15:33 PM
Summit (SDSU) drew 13.  COME ON MAN!  Summit > Horizon?  Please.  Where's the respect?

Respect:  BS sends cameras to a bunch of 16 seeds  ??? ???

As was stated previously, it's Valpo vs SDSU, not Horizon vs Summit. SDSU has the win over New Mexico.

Surprise!

Most Online Today: 68. Most Online Ever: 68 (Today at 06:11:43 PM)

Quote from: bbtds on March 17, 2013, 05:19:56 PM

Quote from: VULB#62 on March 17, 2013, 05:15:33 PM
Summit (SDSU) drew 13.  COME ON MAN!  Summit > Horizon?  Please.  Where's the respect?

Respect:  BS sends cameras to a bunch of 16 seeds  ??? ???

As was stated previously, it's Valpo vs SDSU, not Horizon vs Summit. SDSU has the win over New Mexico.

Exactly - It's SDSU > Valpo not Summit < Horizon

Quote from: valpo04 on March 17, 2013, 05:36:42 PM
Surprise!

Most Online Today: 68. Most Online Ever: 68 (Today at 06:11:43 PM)

Wasn't 51 our previous high?

Quote from: bbtds on March 17, 2013, 06:26:45 PM

Quote from: valpo04 on March 17, 2013, 05:36:42 PM
Surprise!

Most Online Today: 68. Most Online Ever: 68 (Today at 06:11:43 PM)

Wasn't 51 our previous high?

I believe so.

Now we have a new record of 73  :thumbsup:

Checking the probards site
"Most users online was 211, Apr 11, 2008, 12:21am"

What was the occasion?  A.... couple of weeks after we exited the CBI?

Valpo certainly got a bad seed. The two 13's that raise potential questioning are South Dakota St and Montana. Valpo's RPI & BPI 59-61, South Dakota 63-109, and Montana 76-131! South Dakota does have 4 wins against the Top 100 and one (as mentioned above) against a top 50. Both Valpo and Montana have just 2 wins against the top 100 and none agianst the top 50. How does Montana get a 13? Lunardi had them at a 15! MSU will be a tough if not impossible task. We would've had a shot winning at the 13.

What makes it worse is the actual "non-s curve s-curve" list, which has Montana as lowest 13, then Davidson as highest 14, then us.

You could make a case for Davidson over us, but think how Davidson must feel right now:

"WTF(EATHERS)?  DID WE OR DID WE NOT BEAT MONTANA HEAD TO HEAD?  WHAT GOOD IS THE FREAKING BRACKETBUSTER THEN!?!?!?!"

We are RPI-wise ahead of all 13s but LaSalle, last at-large.

Guess they were serious when they were talking about "rpi isn't important any more"

one last beat of the drum:

(http://oi46.tinypic.com/x5e1pv.jpg)

from CrashingTheDance, a really good and reliable site ("Crashing the Dance uses artificial intelligence to learn from previous seasons and predict which teams the committee will select.").

the number after the conference is the inverse of the PREDICTED seed (i.e. 1 = 16 seed, 2=15, 3=14, etc.).  We are much closer to a 13 than a 14; then when you consider where we are, the 53 is good enough for the 3rd of 4 13 seeds.

after W-L is sagarin, then poll rank, if applicable, and finally RPI.

(http://www.sectalk.com/boards/images/imported/2011/08/344cnix-1.gif)

(http://trendbreakdown.com/sites/default/files/shaking-my-head-picture.gif)

(http://www.sectalk.com/board/public/imported_images/gifsoup.com/barkley-head-shake-o.gif)
TURRIBLE

When you think about it, not only did we get the shaft on the seeding but we aslos got it as a result of the bracket folks giving MSU a "home game". Look at the overall braket, and see who else got a "home game" in the first two rounds.  Kansas (a #1) plays at Kansas City.  Ohio State (a #2) plays at Dayton and Louisville (a #1) plays at Lexington.

See any other #3's???  Now we need to just go in and win.  That will make some predictors (none of which give us any chance) look really bad!

Quote from: vu72 on March 18, 2013, 10:03:00 AM
When you think about it, not only did we get the shaft on the seeding but we aslos got it as a result of the bracket folks giving MSU a "home game". Look at the overall braket, and see who else got a "home game" in the first two rounds.  Kansas (a #1) plays at Kansas City.  Ohio State (a #2) plays at Dayton and Louisville (a #1) plays at Lexington.

See any other #3's???  Now we need to just go in and win.  That will make some predictors (none of which give us any chance) look really bad!

lexington will be a home game for the cardinals if they can keep big blue nation at bay. not sure there's a more hostile city towards louisville in the whole country.

Apostle, here's the most obvious .gif you should have used

(http://philly.barstoolsports.com/files/2011/09/sad_bill_cosby.gif)

It would be amusing to find e.g. Montana and Davidson boards to see what they think.

Here's a start:

From the Montana Kaimin (student newspaper)
http://www.montanakaimin.com/sports/article_62392246-8f51-11e2-8f40-0019bb30f31a.html (http://www.montanakaimin.com/sports/article_62392246-8f51-11e2-8f40-0019bb30f31a.html)

Quote
Many experts predicted Montana would be a low seed, but the Grizzlies ended up one spot higher than their No. 14 seed in last year's tournament, which saw No. 3 Wisconsin easily beat Montana 73-49 in the second round.

Head coach Wayne Tinkle said Montana's close games with some of the top Mid-Major programs in the nation like South Dakota State and Davidson, as well as their first game against Colorado State, helped the Grizzlies snag a higher seed.

"I think that went into the seed that we got," said Tinkle, whose teams are 0-2 in the tournament. "Some of the early predictions were 15 seed, that probably would have got my hair off a little bit, but I think that's a good seed and it's going to be a challenge."

That's their head coach suggesting that close _losses_ to midmajors like Davidson and South Dakota State (and against Colorado State) helped get them their 13.

From the Billings Gazette
http://billingsgazette.com/sports/college/big-sky-conference/university-of-montana/basketball-mens/griz-th-in-the-east-to-play-syracuse/article_d9487b0b-7f3e-5b29-a7e8-47cd32bf99a7.html (http://billingsgazette.com/sports/college/big-sky-conference/university-of-montana/basketball-mens/griz-th-in-the-east-to-play-syracuse/article_d9487b0b-7f3e-5b29-a7e8-47cd32bf99a7.html)
Tinkle again (I don't envy his days in the school yard)

Quote
I thought they showed great respect by giving us a 13 seed

MT is the biggest joke of a 13 seed.  Their schedule is pitiful, with 20 games against the stellar Big Sky competition.  Yes, they went 19-1, but it is the BIG SKY! 

Quote from: vu72 on March 18, 2013, 10:03:00 AM
When you think about it, not only did we get the shaft on the seeding but we aslos got it as a result of the bracket folks giving MSU a "home game". Look at the overall braket, and see who else got a "home game" in the first two rounds.  Kansas (a #1) plays at Kansas City.  Ohio State (a #2) plays at Dayton and Louisville (a #1) plays at Lexington.

See any other #3's???  Now we need to just go in and win.  That will make some predictors (none of which give us any chance) look really bad!

There are two programs the NCAA loves and will favor them in any way possible any way thy can:  Michigan State with Izzo and Duke with Coach K.  Preferential seeding.  Tournament home games.  Friendly ref crews.  Get ready for that Big 10 ref crew on Thursday.........we won't be getting any calls all night.   

Someone else may have mentioned this earlier.  But, really all I've got that can put Montana ahead of Davidson and Valpo is bad losses.

We have 222 Loyola, 188 YSU, 152 Oakland, and 103 Nebraska.

Davidson has 292 Chatanooga, 264 Georgia Southern, and 206 Drexel.

Montana only has 166 San Francisco.  Next is Weber State 85.

But, man. _19 wins_ against the RPI 201 and worse.  Only four against teams better than that.

Can they really hold Loyola so strongly against us?

But, I'm drawing a bit of a blank...

Consider the fact that we beat the ever living crap out of GSU as well versus Davidson's loss to them...but MT has absolutely no leg to stand on in being a 13 over us

Looks like they were expecting a 14 seed, more or less, while hoping for better (and fearing for worse). 

I was foolish enough, or bold enough, to ask them what they thought of their seed vs. Valpo and Davidson.  We'll see how they respond ;)

I bet that they will feel that it is deserved because of their record...while completely ignoring 19 wins against sub 200 RPI teams  :)

26-7 vs. their 25-6?
(Or 25-7 D1 vs. their 23-6)

I guess their percentages are _slightly_ better.  And, it may easily have been only a slight difference in the eyes of the committee.

I think it's _entirely_ possible that they didn't look at seeds as carefully as we did, or at least that they no longer care to talk about it ;)

Quote from: valpotx on March 18, 2013, 05:04:34 PMI bet that they will feel that it is deserved because of their record...while completely ignoring 19 wins against sub 200 RPI teams  :)

Now that is putting words in other people's mouths.

Seriously. I'm sure they were proud of, and counted, every one of those wins.

Quote from: vu72 on March 18, 2013, 10:03:00 AM
When you think about it, not only did we get the shaft on the seeding but we aslos got it as a result of the bracket folks giving MSU a "home game". Look at the overall braket, and see who else got a "home game" in the first two rounds.  Kansas (a #1) plays at Kansas City.  Ohio State (a #2) plays at Dayton and Louisville (a #1) plays at Lexington.

See any other #3's???  Now we need to just go in and win.  That will make some predictors (none of which give us any chance) look really bad!

You hit the nail right on the head.  Once the selection committee decided to kiss Michigan State's butt with a "home game" (the only 3 as you point out, and 1 of only 4 of the top 12 teams), our fate was decided.  The difference between a 13 and a 14 seed is huge for any Mid Major.  Playing on a truly neutral court in a game where you are a big underdog as opposed to playing in the other team's own back yard is just as important.  We got screwed on both counts.  The bracketology experts had it the other way and I'm sure they are as surprised as we are. The bottom line is we did everything we needed to do (on a comparative basis - which is all that counts) to earn a 13 seed, and instead the committee subjectively gave it to a lesser team.  Valpo basketball and the Horizon League have been completely disrespected.   

Honestly, if we want to complain about seed/opponent, I think we have a beef. Site, I don't think we should really be upset. The committee "protects" the top four seeds in each region geographically as best they can. Michigan State is a 3 seed, so they are protected....that's how it works. Its not the committee bending over for them and giving them a home game (can't believe I'm defending them...but I don't think they got this wrong).

All four #1's are at the closest site.
Three #2's are at the closest site (Miami is not...Dayton is about 200 miles closer)
Two #3 seeds are at the closest site (Marquette [Dayton about 60 miles closer] & Florida [Dayton about 100 miles closer])
Two #4 seeds are at the closest site (Syracuse, St. Louis...obviously)

The Miami and Florida ones make sense...stay in the south. Syracuse and St. Louis? Well, they were the last two, so they got what was left.

Michigan State is the "FIFTH" closest team to their home site, of the top 16, but 11 of the 16 are at the closest site and the others all make pretty logical sense.

1 Louisville (Lexington, KY - 77 miles)
1 Gonzaga (Salt Lake City, UT - 721 miles)
1 Indiana (Dayton, OH - 165 miles)
1 Kansas (Kansas City, MO - 39 miles)

2 Georgetown (Philadelphia, PA - 136 miles)
2 Miami (Austin, TX - 1355 miles)
2 Ohio State (Dayton, OH - 71 miles)
2 Duke (Philadelphia, PA - 399 miles)

3 Florida (Austin, TX - 1022 miles)
3 Marquette (Lexington, KY - 466 miles)
3 New Mexico (Salt Lake City, UT - 620 miles)
3 Michigan State (Auburn Hills, MI - 82 miles)

4 St. Louis (San Jose, CA - 2090 miles)
4 Kansas State (Kansas City, MO - 120 miles)
4 Michigan (Auburn Hills, MI - 51 miles)
4 Syracuse (San Jose, CA - 2829 miles)



The matchup sucks, but I'd rather be there than out in San Jose....we can all get to the game in Detroit.

Still pissed about our seed (I can't really write out what I think...I might have to ban myself if I wrote it), just don't think the location/opponent combination is that big of a deal

great post, 'hoops.  thanks for crunching the numbers.  i love stuff like that.

Let's take this in a happier direction.

Ironically for someone who quit facebook, I was clued into this interesting site:
https://www.facebook.com/notes/sports-on-facebook/march-madness-fandom-on-facebook/10151473245234487 (https://www.facebook.com/notes/sports-on-facebook/march-madness-fandom-on-facebook/10151473245234487)

QuoteOver 1 million US Facebook users have liked a page for one of the 68 teams attending the tournament. By mapping out where these fans currently live we can see how regions and states will be dividing their loyalty and filling out their brackets this March.

here's our regional to save you time:
(https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-snc7/s720x720/392926_10151545754622457_1836029473_n.png)

wish these blew up bigger, because they had to pick similar colors, didn't they?  like take this one of just Cinderellas.  I got all excited because I thought we were huge down here and I didn't even know I had this support group...and then i realized it was frickin FGCU:
(https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash4/s720x720/401384_10151545761562457_1835943645_n.png)

of note is the pocket of support, thanks to 'nerd and others, in N Dakota.  (Also the lack of support for SDSU?!?)...

..but that can't be FGCU with all that support everywhere, huh?  look at the brown! 

maybe they should have distinguished our color with the Hint Of Lime.  ...okok just a bad joke let's not start all that up again here.

Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on March 18, 2013, 08:47:35 PM
Let's take this in a happier direction.

Ironically for someone who quit facebook, I was clued into this interesting site:
https://www.facebook.com/notes/sports-on-facebook/march-madness-fandom-on-facebook/10151473245234487 (https://www.facebook.com/notes/sports-on-facebook/march-madness-fandom-on-facebook/10151473245234487)

QuoteOver 1 million US Facebook users have liked a page for one of the 68 teams attending the tournament. By mapping out where these fans currently live we can see how regions and states will be dividing their loyalty and filling out their brackets this March.

of note is the pocket of support, thanks to 'nerd and others, in N Dakota.  (Also the lack of support for SDSU?!?)...

..but that can't be FGCU with all that support everywhere, huh?  look at the brown! 

maybe they should have distinguished our color with the Hint Of Lime.  ...okok just a bad joke let's not start all that up again here.

Yep, that's us up there in the lone brown county in North Dakota! I was just telling weathernerd that Ward County is dedicated to Valpo! Pretty awesome.  :thumbsup:

also, most of america will be rooting for us, aside from large chunks of Montana and Idaho and a couple counties around lansing :)

(https://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/s720x720/539153_10151545775207457_2082762457_n.png)

It looks like the only brown for FGCU is in FL, the rest is our shade.  Good to be one of the top underdogs!

Complete BS that my area apparently likes crappy Liberty

It's hard to believe that even Michigan has so much more for U of Michigan than Michigan State.

To me, and too Sagarin, the committee giving Bucknell an 11 and us a 14 is certainly as silly.  We are ranked 65 with a schedule rank of 179 while Bucknell is ranked 73 with a schedule rank of 200 in a conference ranked 19th versus the Horizon's 12. In the BPI they are 59 and us at 61, still extremely close.

Reasonably close rankings.  They get an 11 and us a 14?  ???

All I can think with our seeding compared to Montana and SDSU at 13 and Bucknell at 11...recent tournament appearances. As stupid as it sounds, the three schools we're bickering about here getting better seeds than us have had more recent tournament appearances than we have. Part of our seeding might have had something to do with our consistency of recent tournament appearnaces. Just looking at a different perspective, whether you think it is stupid or not, the proof of tournament appearances in the last ten years is there.

This is why we were given a 14, and Montana a 13:

(http://hua.umf.maine.edu/Chinese/maps/us_map.gif)

Nothing to do with bad losses. Nothing to do with Sagarin. Nothing to do with RPI. Nothing to do with any rating system. Nothing to with how ugly the championship game looked. Nothing to do with recent tournament appearances (Davidson would not be a 14). Nothing to do with Bryce Drew flopping on the floor. Valpo was the closest 13-14 seed to Detroit. Montana was closer to San Jose. They flipped the teams. That's it.

Quote from: a3uge on March 19, 2013, 11:53:59 AMThis is why we were given a 14, and Montana a 13: (http://hua.umf.maine.edu/Chinese/maps/us_map.gif) Nothing to do with bad losses. Nothing to do with Sagarin. Nothing to do with RPI. Nothing to do with any rating system. Nothing to with how ugly the championship game looked. Nothing to do with recent tournament appearances (Davidson would not be a 14). Nothing to do with Bryce Drew flopping on the floor. Valpo was the closest 13-14 seed to Detroit. Montana was closer to San Jose. They flipped the teams. That's it.

So why did we get the (harder) Auburn Hills 14 seed and not the Dayton 14 seed?

To a3uge's comments:

I _assumed_ that their published "overall 1 to 68 ranking" was done before the pairings and other assignments.  That's always the way the S curve was supposed to work, as I remember Whelliston describing it based on his Mock Selection experience.  Rank the teams first, then figure out seedings, pairings, locations. 

That said, I'm not really sure I believe it.  It seems like their "1 to 68" ranking matches too closely to how the seeds and pairings worked out.  I'd expect more shifting to be necessary.

In that first vision, geographical moves like you're talking about shouldn't have an effect - we were ranked lower than Montana (for some inscrutable reason) in the 1 to 68 ranking.  We get a lower seeded.

In the second vision, of course, your description can be true.  And, it's similar to the only response I got to my query on the Montana message board, " Teams are seeded regionally. So Valpo might be better than Montana, but might also be playing in a stronger region. The committee has a tough job - they don't try to make it even more complicated by ensuring absolute equity across the regions."

But, why do they care where the low seeds play?  They want to give the top seeds a home court advantage - fine.  MSU plays in Detroit.  But, why should we play against them?   Were they trying to do us a _favor_ by giving us a low seed?  Were they trying to reduce the CO2 footprint of the tournament?  Were they trying to make it (relatively) easier for fans of low seed teams to travel to the tournament?

Davidson's relatively close to home.  Montana I guess.  Valpo.  New Mexico State.  Northwestern State.  South Dakota State's coming "all the way" to Detroit. Harvard has to go "all the way" to Salt Lake City. 

Maybe they did factor in geography, even for the low seeded team, when possible.

Anybody have a good description of the factors the Selection Committee was supposed to consider this year?

I don't even have a good source for the "1 to 68 ranking".  I got it from some blog, with a claim that the NCAA released it.  The blog doesn't have much description.  Wikipedia, a little strangely, doesn't give a citation for their numbers. 

Quote from: Kyle321n on March 19, 2013, 11:59:06 AM
So why did we get the (harder) Auburn Hills 14 seed and not the Dayton 14 seed?

The way the bracket stands the Dayton games are 7-10 and 2-15.

The 14's are in Auburn Hills, Austin, Lexington, and Salt Lake City.  At least according to wikipedia.

Or am I misunderstanding your question?

Quote from: agibson on March 19, 2013, 12:11:47 PM

Quote from: Kyle321n on March 19, 2013, 11:59:06 AM
So why did we get the (harder) Auburn Hills 14 seed and not the Dayton 14 seed?

The way the bracket stands the Dayton games are 7-10 and 2-15.

The 14's are in Auburn Hills, Austin, Lexington, and Salt Lake City.  At least according to wikipedia.

Or am I misunderstanding your question?

Quote from: agibson on March 19, 2013, 12:11:47 PM

Quote from: Kyle321n on March 19, 2013, 11:59:06 AM
So why did we get the (harder) Auburn Hills 14 seed and not the Dayton 14 seed?

The way the bracket stands the Dayton games are 7-10 and 2-15.

The 14's are in Auburn Hills, Austin, Lexington, and Salt Lake City.  At least according to wikipedia.

Or am I misunderstanding your question?

Yep my question was wrong.  The other 3-14 I was referring to was Marquette-Davidson in Lexington.

Quote from: agibson on March 19, 2013, 12:09:38 PM
Anybody have a good description of the factors the Selection Committee was supposed to consider this year?

I don't even have a good source for the "1 to 68 ranking".  I got it from some blog, with a claim that the NCAA released it.  The blog doesn't have much description.  Wikipedia, a little strangely, doesn't give a citation for their numbers. 

Here's the seed list from the NCAA.  http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2013-03-18/ncaa-seed-list-louisville-no-1 (http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2013-03-18/ncaa-seed-list-louisville-no-1)  According to their procedures, this list is completed prior to the "bracketing" process.  For those of you with an interest, some free time and a lot of patience, here are the principles and procedures.  http://www.bracketwag.com/rules.htm (http://www.bracketwag.com/rules.htm)

As I understand things, the #14 seeds would be placed based upon the "pure seed" ranking (Davidson, Valpo, Northwestern State, Harvard).  Davidson goes to closest site in Lexington, Valpo to closest remaining site in Auburn Hills, NSU to closest remaining site in Austin and Harvard to the only remaining site in Salt Lake City. 

As someone pointed out, the larger complaint should be the placement on the "pure seed" ranking.  Only people in the committee room can give you an answer on that one, although I've always suspected that the rankings in the bottom half get less scrutiny than the top half.  Keep in mind that had Valpo gotten a #13, they could have still ended up in Auburn Hills playing Michigan ... same issues with facing a home crowd, but that would be a better matchup for Valpo, IMO.

Quote from: valporun on March 19, 2013, 09:47:26 AM
All I can think with our seeding compared to Montana and SDSU at 13 and Bucknell at 11...recent tournament appearances. As stupid as it sounds, the three schools we're bickering about here getting better seeds than us have had more recent tournament appearances than we have. Part of our seeding might have had something to do with our consistency of recent tournament appearnaces. Just looking at a different perspective, whether you think it is stupid or not, the proof of tournament appearances in the last ten years is there.

FWIW, the committee always states that tournament performance (good or bad) in prior years has nothing to do with a team being selected or how that team is seeded.  I guess it could have some impact (the committee members are human and can't "unsee" what's happened in prior years), but it clearly isn't supposed to.

I would guess if you asked each individual committee member who has been to the tournament more over the last five years Valparaiso or South Dakota State over half would say Valparaiso. These are not basketball junkies. They are administrators.

Quote from: chef on March 19, 2013, 11:50:28 PM
I would guess if you asked each individual committee member who has been to the tournament more over the last five years Valparaiso or South Dakota State over half would say Valparaiso. These are not basketball junkies. They are administrators.

I honestly do not know whether to be glad or sad about that ;)

My originial opinion wasn't about tournament records, but about just getting a bid to the tournament.