http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology)
After Wright State sat in the 13-seed spot for over a month, Lunardi finally updated his bracketology projections. He has Green Bay as a 15 seed playing Marcus Smart and Oklahoma State in San Antonio. This is probably not going to happen, as Milwaukee is a tournament host this year and Green Bay would likely get seeded in the Midwest. I want to predict Green Bay as a 14 seed playing Michigan State in the first round in Milwaukee... but anything can happen. Predicting seeds and locations is about as easy as guessing which player Brian Wardle is going to berate next.
(http://img706.imageshack.us/img706/733/4ajx.png)
On the Mid Major Top 25 front, Green Bay is 15th, Milwaukee is 22nd, and YSU received a fair number of votes.
(http://img571.imageshack.us/img571/4425/1kyi.png)
Using RPI Forecast Expected RPIs because UMKC is like 120 RPI.
Green Bay's top 3 wins: H Virginia (45.3 RPI), N Tulsa (159.8 RPI), N Pepperdine (189.7 RPI)
Milwaukee's top 3 wins: H Northern Iowa (103.4 RPI), @ Davidson (202.2 RPI), H Bradley (229.2 RPI)
YSU's top 3 wins: N Eastern Kentucky (144.8 RPI), H Robert Morris (189.3 RPI), N FIU (199.2 RPI)
For the record, Valpo's top 3 RPI wins are: H LMU (155.7 RPI), H UCF (168.0 RPI), H Murray State (214.4 RPI)
So nothing spectacular all around in the league. Like I've been saying, unless a bunch of mid majors lose their conference tournaments, the Horizon League is going to output a 15 seed, with 14 being the ceiling. Green Bay only has one non-conference game left and it's against Fairfield. If they lose only a couple conference games, they could jump up to a higher seed, but I bet they lose 4 or 5 games on the road this year.
Edit: also, CBS Sports has a bracketology, but they do a pretty poor job: http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology) They have UWGB at a 13 seed.
Wow, look at IPFW sneaking in at #25... What a crock of S#!t They must have the weakest schedule in D1... Oh, I'm sorry it is not the weakest but it is ranked #327!
Here's an updated MM top 25. Green Bay moves up to 8, Milwaukee slides to 24, YSU gets 22 votes and Valpo squeaks in with one vote.
(http://img577.imageshack.us/img577/5677/0kmf.png)
Current SOS by team:
Good to very good - top 100
10 Oakland
38 Detroit
55 GB
99 Valpo
Acceptable - top half
146 CSU
158 YSU
Needs improvement
197 UIC
235 Milw
Completely unacceptable
347 WSU (out of 351 teams)
If the Horizon League ever hopes to become a multi-bid conference or earn seeds that provide a realistic opportunity to win early round tournament games, every HL member has to be on the same page relative to scheduling quality OOC opponents. Obviously, that is not the case right now. The league office has got to step up.
What's worse is they aren't undefeated or anything close. They're 7-7 plus a loss in an exhibition.
Then there's all the NAIA teams on Horizon schedules. Milwaukee is the only team in the league without at least 2 NAIA/NCAA D-II/III teams on the schedule. Those games don't count for SOS rankings.
Since any non-D1 game doesn't count (D2, 3, NAIA, etc.)--that would have been vastly preferable to Wright State's debacle. If it doesn't count, then it's not bringing you down.
Remember the 'parable' of the Tar Baby? No good can come from wrestling the Alcorn States and NC A&Ts. Even winning brings you down. Losing is catastrophic.
Losing to a D2? Doesn't matter to RPI, SOS, IRS, etc.
Final OOC SOS by team:
Good to very good - top 100
7 Oakland
65 GB
93 Valpo
Acceptable - top half
117 Detroit
128 CSU
142 UIC
Needs improvement
205 YSU
241 Milw
Completely unacceptable
341 WSU (out of 351 teams)
Thinking back to the A-10 scheduling point system, the goal is to avoid scheduling anyone with an RPI worse than 200 from the prior year. WSU and Milw, and YSU to a lesser degree, would never have been allowed to go forward with their crap, OOC schedules full of bad low-major opponents. And to think they have fans who think their program deserves to be promoted to a higher rated league somewhere. A sign of the times we live in, I guess; nobody thinks they should have to earn anything anymore. Then again, maybe they're right. Look at Loyola.
Quote from: wh on December 30, 2013, 10:24:14 PM
Thinking back to the A-10 scheduling point system, the goal is to avoid scheduling anyone with an RPI worse than 200 from the prior year. WSU and Milw, and YSU to a lesser degree, would never have been allowed to go forward with their crap, OOC schedules full of bad low-major opponents. And to think they have fans who think their program deserves to be promoted to a higher rated league somewhere. A sign of the times we live in, I guess; nobody thinks they should have to earn anything anymore. Then again, maybe they're right. Look at Loyola.
For the record Loyola's RPI stands at 314 and their SOS is 325. How long have they had the revamped Gentile Center now? How long have they been "ideally located" in a major metropolitan area and media center that so enamored university presidents on the MVC search committee? How long have they been located in one of the best hot beds for basketball talent in the United States? Of course, I keep forgetting that we're expected to believe that none of this should count for anything. It's all about conference affiliation, right? As members of the mighty MVC (RPI ranking 11 thanks to Loyola) instead of the lowly HL (RPI ranking 13) surely their fortunes will change.
Speaking of HL rankings, just wanted to post my HL non-con blog :)
http://www.valpofanzone.com/2014/01/01/horizon-league-the-non-con-2013/ (http://www.valpofanzone.com/2014/01/01/horizon-league-the-non-con-2013/)
Interesting and informative. Well done!
Great stuff
Quote from: Pathfinder on January 02, 2014, 10:38:46 PMGreat stuff
Thanks, gentlemen!
wh, I was honestly going to dedicate the post to you because you're my biggest fan. Accept the first paragraph instead as my apology ;)
Forgot to post this last week... should be another update today or tomorrow.
MM Top 25: Green Bay up 1, Milwaukee up 2, and YSU gets less votes. We should see Valpo losing that vote, Milwaukee dropping out completely, and GB staying put at 7.
(http://img30.imageshack.us/img30/6082/mutt.png)
Link: http://www.collegeinsider.com/mens-mid-major-top-25.php (http://www.collegeinsider.com/mens-mid-major-top-25.php)
Bracketology was also updated on Jan 2nd... Lunardi boosted Green Bay up a seed. I really can't see Green Bay traveling all the way to San Antonio when Milwaukee is a first round site. Also, including Indiana State was fairly hilarious. Can't really understand why Lundardi predicts Indiana State upsetting Wichita State in the conference tourney.
(http://img547.imageshack.us/img547/8723/f9qr.png)
Link: http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology)
MM Top 25: Jan 6th, 2013
As predicted, Green Bay maintained the 7th spot and Milwaukee dropped out of the rankings. Surprisingly, YSU/Valpo still got the same number of votes as last time, despite losing this week. Kampe and Donlon were the Horizon League voters, so I would imagine the lone vote came from Kampe.
(http://img132.imageshack.us/img132/9034/4n5b.png)
Link: http://www.collegeinsider.com/mens-mid-major-top-25.php (http://www.collegeinsider.com/mens-mid-major-top-25.php)
You missed highlighting Cleveland State with 38 votes!
Quote from: valpotx on January 07, 2014, 02:36:24 PM
You missed highlighting Cleveland State with 38 votes!
Oh wow. I am blind.
Bracketology has been updated - Jan 9, 2013
(http://img826.imageshack.us/img826/6493/srdy.png)
Link: http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology)
Green Bay's RPI is now a respectable 53 (68.4 expected). In comparison, Valpo's RPI was 58 last year on Selection Sunday. Green Bay's top RPI wins are Cleveland State (96) and Virginia (41). Those were both at home. Green Bay still hasn't been tested on the road too much. They lost @ EMU, won against a bad South Dakota team by a slim margin, and won a non-D1 game at Chicago State. They'll play their next 3 games on the road vs UWM, WSU, and UIC. They'll have a touch stretch in February where they play at YSU, at CSU two days later, come home for Valpo, and then go back on the road to play Oakland.
Quote from: EddieCabot on January 09, 2014, 03:42:50 PM
Quote from: a3uge on January 09, 2014, 01:14:53 PMand won a non-D1 game at Chicago State.
???
I think he just made a mistake. Had you said it, I would have attached a whole different meaning to it. ;)
Quote from: wh on January 09, 2014, 04:59:27 PM
Quote from: EddieCabot on January 09, 2014, 03:42:50 PM
Quote from: a3uge on January 09, 2014, 01:14:53 PMand won a non-D1 game at Chicago State.
???
I think he just made a mistake. Had you said it, I would have attached a whole different meaning to it. ;)
Was definitely a jab at Chicago State... I think I have a post on here explaining why Chicago State should be the next Horizon League member right before the University of Hradec Králové Medvědi: http://www.valpofanzone.com/forum/index.php?topic=726.msg12516#msg12516 (http://www.valpofanzone.com/forum/index.php?topic=726.msg12516#msg12516)
Edit: Also, I sarcastically said "all-Jesuit conference that looks as if it's all-but-confirmed" - wow, that almost was true!
Theres no doubt our seeding last year in the tournament was incorrect. We played Michigan St. much tighter than Memphis did in the second round. We lost by 11 and Memphis lost by 22.
What's more interesting is that Norh Dakota St. from the summit league is a 12th seed.
Quote from: oklahomamick on January 10, 2014, 09:29:41 AM
What's more interesting is that Norh Dakota St. from the summit league is a 12th seed.
Yeah, I said this in another thread, but the Summit League is misleading because NDSU's and UNO's RPIs will take a hit. At the time of this Bracketology, NDSU's RPI was 21.... you read that right... 21. They just lost to IPFW last night, so their RPI has slipped 12 points in 1 game (wow). Expected RPI is 66 now. I don't know if they'll make the tourney, but I would imagine them as more of a 13-14 seed if they do. Last year they gave Nate Wolters a 14 seed, so I'm not entirely sure how high the committee is on the Summit. They do have a good OOC SOS, which is something the committee really likes, and they do have a couple top 100 RPI wins. They beat the bipolar Notre Dame team in South Bend, which is definitely a quality win. I remember watching that game and hearing the announcers do the same old spiel "give credit to them for competing" despite being up most of the game. One thing about teams like the North Dakota/western schools is that they'll plug them anywhere because they're geographically out of range anyways.
Somewhere recently there were comments about IPFW and the Summit/Horizon League thing. IPFW moved their home games from the Coliseum in FW back to their campus facility supposedly to help increase attendance, enthusiasm, etc. Last night was their "big home game" versus Summit and Mid-major powerhouse North Dakota State. IPFW whipped them 82-71 before an enthusiastic crowd of 608! Many in attendance were dressed like empty seats. It sure looks like that venue change really helped.
Quote from: a3uge on January 06, 2014, 04:04:42 PM
Bracketology was also updated on Jan 2nd... Lunardi boosted Green Bay up a seed. I really can't see Green Bay traveling all the way to San Antonio when Milwaukee is a first round site. Also, including Indiana State was fairly hilarious. Can't really understand why Lundardi predicts Indiana State upsetting Wichita State in the conference tourney.
(http://img547.imageshack.us/img547/8723/f9qr.png)
Link: http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology)
I don't think that the committee really looks at location when they place anyone not in a top 4 or 5 seed. For example last year they surely didn't consider travel distance when they put La Salle in KC or La Salle and Belmont in SLC. Frankly they probably don't expect "small conference teams" to have travelling fans no matter the distance, so I doubt that they would see putting UWGB in Milwaukee as any sort of boost to ticket sales that they couldn't get from UW-Madison, Marquette, Minnesota, or Illinois.
In regards to WSU being upset in the Valley Tournament, it's always a decent possibility considering the Shockers have not won it since it has moved to the neutral site in St. Louis (1991). As a lifelong Shocker fan it's always nerve racking being on the bubble heading into that weekend knowing that 1987 is the last time we received the auto-bid by winning the tourney. Also, Indiana St has a solid team that could have a decent shot at beating WSU in a winner-take-all game.
Uh, tell that to our team from last year in regards to Montana receiving a higher seed and placed on the West coast, instead of us...
Quote from: mvandersee on January 10, 2014, 01:16:59 PM
Quote from: a3uge on January 06, 2014, 04:04:42 PM
Bracketology was also updated on Jan 2nd... Lunardi boosted Green Bay up a seed. I really can't see Green Bay traveling all the way to San Antonio when Milwaukee is a first round site. Also, including Indiana State was fairly hilarious. Can't really understand why Lundardi predicts Indiana State upsetting Wichita State in the conference tourney.
(http://img547.imageshack.us/img547/8723/f9qr.png)
Link: http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology)
I don't think that the committee really looks at location when they place anyone not in a top 4 or 5 seed. For example last year they surely didn't consider travel distance when they put La Salle in KC or La Salle and Belmont in SLC. Frankly they probably don't expect "small conference teams" to have travelling fans no matter the distance, so I doubt that they would see putting UWGB in Milwaukee as any sort of boost to ticket sales that they couldn't get from UW-Madison, Marquette, Minnesota, or Illinois.
In regards to WSU being upset in the Valley Tournament, it's always a decent possibility considering the Shockers have not won it since it has moved to the neutral site in St. Louis (1991). As a lifelong Shocker fan it's always nerve racking being on the bubble heading into that weekend knowing that 1987 is the last time we received the auto-bid by winning the tourney. Also, Indiana St has a solid team that could have a decent shot at beating WSU in a winner-take-all game.
At one point I started a map of all teams and their host site location. I'll have to dig that up. Last year we saw Valpo get a 14 seed when less deserving teams wound up a 13 seed. Detroit was a close site to Valpo, so geography did play a part there. The "First Four" screws things up (LaSalle), as well as not having duplicate matchups, seeding, etc. The committee has made it clear that they will change a teams seed for geographic reasons. Its sometimes impossible to place a team because they don't want conference opponents playing each other until the elite 8.
As for WSU - they're a lock for an at large. I just found it odd they predicted an Indiana State upset in the conf tourney since he typically doesn't predict conference tourney upsets. Nonetheless, Indiana State is no longer on the board and WSU is listed as a 2 seed.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology)
J Palm has a Bracketology that usually isn't as good, but nonetheless it exists and is worth sharing. He has Green Bay a 12 seed against 5 Memphis. I do think if Green Bay only loses a handful of conference games, they could be a 12 seed, especially with EMU, Harvard, and Wisconsin doing so well (their only losses). I don't they'll run the table in the conference and they'll lose 4 or so games on the road. 13 seed still seems about right, but we'll know a lot more about how well they can do on the road by next Friday when they play @Wright State.
New MM Top 25 out. The Jaspers lost to Qunipiac, so they fell substantially. That's what happens when you're a MAAC team. We also see Cleveland State getting some more votes (this was before the YSU loss last night). Milwaukee surprisingly almost dropped off completely with an OT loss to GB at home. Valpo, of course, is no longer received any votes, and YSU surprisingly dropped off as well, despite winning @UIC since last week, although I'm not sure why they had so many votes to begin with. They did just beat Cleveland St, so they'll probably be back next week after they beat Detroit.
(http://imageshack.com/a/img546/7353/ec3d.png)
Link:http://www.collegeinsider.com/mens-mid-major-top-25.php
It looks like RealtimeRPI finally added the American conference to their rankings:
http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html (http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html)
(http://imageshack.com/a/img199/4819/j0d4.png)
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology)
Moving up...
New MM Top 25 out, and Green Bay moves up a slot after Indiana State got plumbed by Wichita State. There's some small talk about Green Bay getting an at-large if they somehow win out and lose in the conference tourney... I feel it's unlikely that a team good enough to win every single game in conference game would lose at home in the conference tournament. More likely, Green Bay will drop a couple of games.
The 'Receiving Votes' section still appears to be a mystery. YSU was receiving votes and then dropped out mysteriously AFTER beating Cleveland State. They won last week against Detroit and are still missing. Cleveland State nearly cracked the top 25, and then they lost to Wright State, whom enters the list for the first time (they're finally under 200 RPI). You still won't see their fans letting everyone know what place they were picked to finish in conference this year, unlike last year.
(http://imageshack.com/a/img31/331/mbb7.png)
Green Bay holding steady at a 12 seed in Lunardi's Bracketology. Not surprisingly.
(http://imageshack.com/a/img62/2771/khgi.png)
Link: http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology)
Green Bay moves to 4 after Harvard drops like a rock from their loss to FAU. Note: Green Bay lost to Harvard in Alaska this year. Cleveland State jumps up to get some votes, and Wright State stays about the same.
(http://imageshack.com/a/img203/7770/t1kk.png)
The Horizon League just fell from 13th to 14th in conference RPI:
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2014/conferencerpi (http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2014/conferencerpi)
14th is still respectable, but not where we should be. WSU's disappointing record combined with their terrible OOC schedule has had an unanticipated negative effect. Then of course there's UIC...
The summit league is just behind us. Will they pass us? That will be embarrassing if so.
Quote from: oklahomamick on February 02, 2014, 05:10:12 PM
The summit league is just behind us. Will they pass us? That will be embarrassing if so.
That would be nearly impossible since neither conference has any OOC games remaining.
It doesn't really pass the smell test either. I think GB > North Dakota St and UIC > IUPUI. That's 1st and last. Summit's 2nd, 3rd, and 4th best teams are Denver, IPFW, and UNO... I feel Cleveland State is probably on par with Denver, but IPFW and UNO aren't as good as the middle of the Horizon, including the disappointing WSU, whom should have been top 100 RPI competing for a HL Championship this year, not to losing to schools like NORTH CAROLINA A & F*&%ing T.
Quote from: a3uge on February 03, 2014, 11:55:18 AM
Quote from: oklahomamick on February 02, 2014, 05:10:12 PM
The summit league is just behind us. Will they pass us? That will be embarrassing if so.
That would be nearly impossible since neither conference has any OOC games remaining.
It doesn't really pass the smell test either. I think GB > North Dakota St and UIC > IUPUI. That's 1st and last. Summit's 2nd, 3rd, and 4th best teams are Denver, IPFW, and UNO... I feel Cleveland State is probably on par with Denver, but IPFW and UNO aren't as good as the middle of the Horizon, including the disappointing WSU, whom should have been top 100 RPI competing for a HL Championship this year, not to losing to schools like NORTH CAROLINA A & F*&%ing T.
Good, I live in Tulsa and I'm always boasting that the HL is better than both CUSA (Tulsa University) and the Summit or Southland (ORU). I noticed that CUSA just passed the HL so I lost that argument....
I understand your shots at WSU. WSU fans even have a topic on their Blog, questioning Donovan. He was coach of the year last year, right? I know we still have half the conference left to play, but at the half way point, which coach deserves it?
Quote from: oklahomamick on February 03, 2014, 01:56:46 PMI understand your shots at WSU. WSU fans even have a topic on their Blog, questioning Donovan. He was coach of the year last year, right? I know we still have half the conference left to play, but at the half way point, which coach deserves it?
Team | Projected | Standing | Rank (RPI) |
Green Bay | 1 | 1 | 1 (59) |
Wright State | 2 | 6 | 7 (209) |
Cleveland St | 3 | T2 | 2 (104) |
Oakland | 4 | 7 | 5 (174) |
Youngstown St. | 5 | 5 | 6 (186) |
Valparaiso | 6 | T2 | 3 (168) |
Illinois Chicago | 7 | 9 | 9 (310) |
Detroit | 8 | 8 | 8 (211) |
Milwaukee | 9 | 4 | 4 (169) |
Valpo and Milwaukee are both outperforming expectations while Wright State has been horrible, given the amount of 1st place votes they received.
I would imagine either Jeter or Bryce get it, as giving it to a team that did better than expected seems to be the trendy thing to do now. I can't imagine Wardle gets it since A. He's a horrible coach and B. He's a horrible person.
Donlon is at WSU, Donovan is at Florida.
Quote from: a3uge on February 03, 2014, 11:55:18 AMSummit's 2nd, 3rd, and 4th best teams are Denver, IPFW, and UNO... I feel Cleveland State is probably on par with Denver, but IPFW and UNO aren't as good as the middle of the Horizon, including the disappointing WSU,
I realize that NDSU is the darling of the Summit League sitting at #9 in the Mid-Major poll, but IPFW is currently leading the Summit at 18-6 and 6-1 in conference and is #19 in the Mid-Major poll. While I think their OOC schedule was horse s#!t, and the second half of conference has mostly away games, they still seem to be much improved and on their way to one of the top 2 spots in the conference.
Quote from: wh on February 02, 2014, 03:34:37 PM
The Horizon League just fell from 13th to 14th in conference RPI:
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2014/conferencerpi (http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2014/conferencerpi)
14th is still respectable, but not where we should be. WSU's disappointing record combined with their terrible OOC schedule has had an unanticipated negative effect. Then of course there's UIC...
From the Milwaukee board - following is the HL conference RPI ranking for the previous 13 seasons:
'01- 11
'02- 16
'03- 13
'04- 11
'05- 19
'06- 15
'07- 12
'08- 11
'09- 13
'10- 12
'11- 12
'12- 13
'13- 12
The poster also noted something I had not thought about that had the Big East not "become" two conferences this year, both of which are ahead of the Horizon League (Big East in 4th, AAC in 8th), we would be 13th right now, not 14th. The bottom line is that despite ongoing challenges in the aftermath of losing Butler and Loyola, the Horizon League continues to hold its relative position among D-1 basketball conferences.
New MM Top 25. We're receiving votes again, Cleveland State is stuck, and Wright State drops off.
(http://imageshack.com/a/img837/4779/azje.png)
Link: http://www.collegeinsider.com/mens-mid-major-top-25.php (http://www.collegeinsider.com/mens-mid-major-top-25.php)
We lost Loyola and gained Oakland. Everyone thought it was an upgrade. However, Loyola is 4-8 in the Missouri and Oakland is 4-7 (a buzzer beater away from 3-8) in the HL.
Quote from: oklahomamick on February 09, 2014, 10:37:32 PM
We lost Loyola and gained Oakland. Everyone thought it was an upgrade. However, Loyola is 4-8 in the Missouri and Oakland is 4-7 (a buzzer beater away from 3-8) in the HL.
Loyola's RPI is terrible. They lost Northern Illinois this year. Glad we lost a perennial 250+ RPI team (278 this year) for Oakland, whom is 1 RPI better than us.
yeah they stink, but they took out 2 HL teams this year.
hey! twice as many HL wins as Loyola had 2 years ago!
Interesting article by Seth Davis giving us the best chance to make the Tournament of any Indiana school. The premise is that it could be a year when the state of Indiana is without a team in the dance so he rates each Indiana D1's chances of bucking the odds. Searching for an Indiana tourney team (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/college-basketball/news/20140212/fast-five-indiana-ncaa-tournament-uconn-florida-gators/)