The Valparaiso Beacons Fan Zone Forum

It has been a slow posting week.  Many on this board are excited for the upcoming football season, so a poll is in order.

Massey has us winning almost three games, four if you add the Missouri Baptist, which he doesn't have in his schedule yet:

http://masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=cf2014&sub=11590 (http://masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=cf2014&sub=11590)

The breakout of the season and each game is here:

http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8361&s=262657 (http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8361&s=262657)

I think this coach was a good hire, and should show some improvement this season.  I'm going with wins against St Joe's, Jewell, Campbell, MO Baptist, Morehead and Davidson, for six wins.  Oh, and an increase in attendance of 500 per home game to more than 2618 per home game.  Bring on that automatic bid to FCS in 2015!

I'm going with the guy who won last year's basketball over-under!

Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on June 26, 2014, 01:33:13 PM
I'm going with the guy who won last year's basketball over-under!

And looking forward to this year's basketball over-under!

Where do they get these metrics?

4 wins would be a great season IMHO, after suffering through 4 seasons of Osteen...

I looked at the schedule and I went with the following 4 wins (despite Massey):

St. Joe's - This is the year we are on the right side of a close score
Wm Jewel - Good old Moe Mentum will help here
Mo Baptist - Hey, it's Homecoming
Davidson - It's home and it's the 12th game.

BONUS:  I think we might pull out a 5th against Morehead @ Morehead -- IF.......... we are starting to believe in ourselves and lose close games leading in. 

@ Campbell I think the string runs out. 

I am conflicted about Marist on our home field.  I think they've lost too many great players and are ripe.

62 - excellent analysis, since you agree with me!!!

expecting 6 games with a new coach with this team is being way too optimistic.  An optimism the past 4 years has not worked well for us. 

I am thinking about making the trip to William Jewell in KC - it is an awesome BBQ town, and some killer ribs and a Boulevard to toast a victory would be great.

My hope (not an expectation yet) for the new season is that Valpo can go .500 on the home schedule: 3-3. Three wins at home would be a good step in the right direction for the team and are definitely possible, especially with the first trio of games at Brown Field: St. Joseph's, Marist, and Missouri Baptist. Home victories also are important to build campus following and support.

Quote from: usc4valpo on June 26, 2014, 10:07:22 PMexpecting 6 games with a new coach with this team is being way too optimistic.

Maybe. Hopefully, it is just optimistic, and not way too optimistic.  If we finish with 4 or 5 wins, I'd agree that it was optimistic.  If we finish with 1, 2 or 3 wins, I'd agree that it was way too optimistic.  I really do expect the number of 20+ point losses to decrease, and the number of PFL games that we are within 7-10 points at the beginning of the fourth quarter to increase, even if we don't get the 6 wins for which I'm hopeful. 

Quote from: usc4valpo on June 26, 2014, 10:07:22 PMAn optimism the past 4 years has not worked well for us. 

Absolutely!  Only the extreme pessimists were close to correct the last few years!

predicting 6 games with a team that is transitioning with a new coach taking over a 4-40 team is almost Cub fan optimistic, and we all know how well that works.


This teams needs more talent and support to get above .500 .  I think it can be done, but let's get real here.  You will see improvement just based on the Osteen departure.  I say 4-8, and we should be very pleased for that.

My guess: 5 wins. Some guys who missed most or all of last season with injuries will be fully back, meaning we have more talent than most know about. Add in the new coach and a very favorable schedule. Seems like the St Joe game will be the most important of the season. A win gives confidence to take against into the next couple of winnable games. A loss, though, deflates morale in a big way. If we come out of Western IL healthy and score a couple of times, it's a win that sets us up for St Joe well.

Quote: "You're going to go through tough times - that's life. But I say, 'Nothing happens to you, it happens for you.' See the positive in negative events."

From a 51 year old, New York Times Best Selling author, who attended Oral Roberts University as a radio and television major. In 1999 he took over his father's organization and grew it to 8.5 times of it's size in 1999. Maybe it would be smart to start listening to other authors.

I am really trying to figure out what Osteen meant by that quote or why that quote was so significant.

Quote from: VULB#62 on June 26, 2014, 08:44:24 PM
I looked at the schedule and I went with the following 4 wins (despite Massey):

St. Joe's - This is the year we are on the right side of a close score
Wm Jewel - Good old Moe Mentum will help here
Mo Baptist - Hey, it's Homecoming
Davidson - It's home and it's the 12th game.

BONUS:  I think we might pull out a 5th against Morehead @ Morehead -- IF.......... we are starting to believe in ourselves and lose close games leading in. 

@ Campbell I think the string runs out. 

I am conflicted about Marist on our home field.  I think they've lost too many great players and are ripe.

I think we will fall in the 4-6 wins range (my vote was 4).  I think 4 is realistic but in my heart I HOPE for 6.  I just can't figure where that 5th and 6th wins will come from.  Maybe it's just 5 on a flyer.

The 2014 Football roster has been updated and we are now five weeks away from the opening game!

That opener is @ Western Illinois University.  The Leathernecks open with us, and then while we play St. Joes at home, they go against a slightly more impressive opponent -- the University of Wisconsin.  So, while we are fodder for WIU in week one, so may WIU be fodder for UW in week two.  But WIU will be a good barometer early on for our Pioneer season as WIU comes back from Madison to lick its wounds agains fellow Pioneer League foe Drake.  That may tell us something relatively speaking.  Hopefully, we wind up comparable.  BTW WIU then goes back into harm's way against Northwestern.  Looks like they are playing for pay days.  What doesn't kill ya makes ya stronger, I guess.

Sagarin has two teams ranked lower than Valpo - Davidson and Stetson. We can beat Davidson and maybe the Baptists,but overall 2-3 wins is all we can expect. Book it!

Quote from: VULB#62 on July 24, 2014, 05:57:31 PM
That opener is @ Western Illinois University.  The Leathernecks open with us, and then while we play St. Joes at home, they go against a slightly more impressive opponent -- the University of Wisconsin.  So, while we are fodder for WIU in week one, so may WIU be fodder for UW in week two.  But WIU will be a good barometer early on for our Pioneer season as WIU comes back from Madison to lick its wounds agains fellow Pioneer League foe Drake.  That may tell us something relatively speaking.  Hopefully, we wind up comparable.  BTW WIU then goes back into harm's way against Northwestern.  Looks like they are playing for pay days.  What doesn't kill ya makes ya stronger, I guess.

I recently read a pre-season writeup on WIU and saw that they are picked near the bottom of their league, after losing keys guys to graduation.  We will have key guys back but a BIG question mark at quarterback. Should be an interesting game and I'll guess we hold our own--meaning this won't be a YSU type blowout.  I'm thinking 3 or 4 touchdown loss.

Wow, in a 'down year' they schedule two pretty good B1G schools within 3 weeks.  Definitely a payday ploy IMO.

Quote from: VULB#62 on July 25, 2014, 08:12:21 PM
Wow, in a 'down year' they schedule two pretty good B1G schools within 3 weeks.  Definitely a payday ploy IMO.

Well, we have had nothing but "down years" and still schedule the YSU's and WIU's and ND's (that's Norht Dakota!  ;) of the world for paydays!

Quote from: setshot on July 25, 2014, 06:40:41 PMoverall 2-3 wins is all we can expect.

Gentlemen, and the occasional mom, I never thought this day would come.

Even the Shot Set in his ways has sipped of the Kool-Aid.

This can only mean we will win 6.

Quote from: vu72 on July 25, 2014, 08:56:57 PM

Quote from: VULB#62 on July 25, 2014, 08:12:21 PM
Wow, in a 'down year' they schedule two pretty good B1G schools within 3 weeks.  Definitely a payday ploy IMO.

Well, we have had nothing but "down years" and still schedule the YSU's and WIU's and ND's (that's North Dakota!  ;) of the world for paydays!

Yeah, but WIU is doing a double dose - we never did that.  :crazy:   
But their guarantees will probably cover the entire FB budget for the year (and maybe then some).

Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on July 25, 2014, 10:01:56 PM

Quote from: setshot on July 25, 2014, 06:40:41 PMoverall 2-3 wins is all we can expect.

Gentlemen, and the occasional mom, I never thought this day would come.

Even the Shot Set in his ways has sipped of the Kool-Aid.

This can only mean we will win 6.

LAA I think you hit on something

62 -  I am not so sure WIU is going to be a good barometer to assess the beloved Crusader.  Valpo is a brand new team, new players, new plays (thanks be to God), new coach (again thanks be to God) and going a different direction.  There is a lot of stuff for Coach Cecchini to sort out.  Give it at least a week to establish the metric.  WIU plays in a bigger pond, and seeing results based on a potential mismatch blowout is not a good indicator.  The Valley is a very tough conference.

That being said, a better barometer will be the St. Joe's game followed by the BBQ tour/road trip to KC against William Jewell.  I may drive down for that game.

Quote from: setshot on July 25, 2014, 06:40:41 PMSagarin has two teams ranked lower than Valpo - Davidson and Stetson. We can beat Davidson and maybe the Baptists,but overall 2-3 wins is all we can expect. Book it!

That "book it" just doomed Valpo for sure. 0-12 no doubt about it. Chresus Jist!

Quote from: usc4valpo on July 26, 2014, 05:02:56 PM
62 -  I am not so sure WIU is going to be a good barometer to assess the beloved Crusader.  Valpo is a brand new team, new players, new plays (thanks be to God), new coach (again thanks be to God) and going a different direction.  There is a lot of stuff for Coach Cecchini to sort out.  Give it at least a week to establish the metric.  WIU plays in a bigger pond, and seeing results based on a potential mismatch blowout is not a good indicator.  The Valley is a very tough conference.

That being said, a better barometer will be the St. Joe's game followed by the BBQ tour/road trip to KC against William Jewell.  I may drive down for that game.

I was pointing to the fact that both Valpo and Drake play WIU with two weeks.  If we both lose by, say, 3 TDs  or 4 TDs for that matter, that could bode well for the new program within the PFL.  If we get croaked and Drake plays them close, we have a lot of work to do.  My main point was a PFL comparison with a common opponent.

Quote from: VULB#62 on July 26, 2014, 08:10:44 AMLAA I think you hit on something

Yeah, and because I'm a musician on vacation in Austin TX I therefore have nothing to do, since I'm only on Brazos & 6th, so I went back to research.

I'm not claiming to have read all setshot's 313-ish posts, but I definitely scanned them all. *shudder*

2013: predicted ZERO wins.  Actual:  ONE!

QuoteI'll take Campbell and hopefully a 0-11 season.

http://www.valpofanzone.com/forum/index.php?topic=1564.msg36238#msg36238 (http://www.valpofanzone.com/forum/index.php?topic=1564.msg36238#msg36238)

2012: predicted ZERO wins.  Actual:  ONE!

QuoteValpo will be lucky to win a game this year. Should VU beat St. Joe,look for a 2-3 win season.

NOTE: we did not, actually beat St. Joseph.
http://www.valpofanzone.com/forum/index.php?topic=936.msg16972#msg16972 (http://www.valpofanzone.com/forum/index.php?topic=936.msg16972#msg16972)

2011:  predicted ZERO wins.  Actual:  ONE!

Quotewe go 0-11 again

http://www.valpofanzone.com/forum/index.php?topic=232.msg3747#msg3747 (http://www.valpofanzone.com/forum/index.php?topic=232.msg3747#msg3747)

So, if this year he predicts "2-3", then we will win...um...let me plug that into my calculator...DIVBY0 games!

GO VALPO

62, I will agree to disagree on this one.  I see where you are going; but basing this on potential blowouts does not make a lot of sense to me.

Apostle,

This is an interesting analysis of setshot's predictions.  But I have to appreciate setshot's wisdom as he has been fairly accurate in accessing the football team in the past few years.  He has been more accurate than most of the people on the board who have displayed false optimism over the Carlson years. Being off by one game is a good prediction.

This board has generally showed Chicago Cub optimism, and there's nothing wrong with objective reality checks.  You guys need to give some respect to setshot for his views.

This is a new season.  New players.  A football program that has been absolutely dismal the past 5 years.  I think things are looking better but it will not be an overnight fix.  Based on the schedule, if Coach Cecchini wins 4 games this season, we should be more than satisfied.  Also, seeing improvement over the season would be a great sign of better things to come.

Oh, exactly.  It was a fairly entertaining read, actually.

I purposely chose a geometric mean of projecting results based on his prediction (rather than the arithmetic), because he only predicted one fewer than actual, and multiplication is funnier than addition.

3-4 wins, then, would be nice.  And reasonable. 

Hey, it is all good.


Also, where are the "Shields Up" slogans?

Quote from: usc4valpo on July 27, 2014, 12:24:25 PM
Hey, it is all good.


Also, where are the "Shields Up" slogans?

How about an Osteen quote?

I believe that God has put gifts and talents and ability on the inside of every one of us. When you develop that and you believe in yourself and you believe that you're a person of influence and a person of purpose, I believe you can rise up out of any situation.

Please stop that bogusity on a lovely Sunday and helping him make his payment on his $11M house. It is depressing and making me think of those blowouts to Butler. Better times are ahead and we don't need a used car salesman.

For me there are really two barometers for the upcoming season. The first, of course, is the number of wins. I would be really pleased with 4 or 5 but I think the more realistic estimate is probably 3.  The second is how we play against four of the really tough teams in the PFL – Drake, Dayton, San Diego, and Butler.  It's been a long, long time since we beat any of these teams, and just about every game we have played against them in the past five years has been a blowout loss. While I don't expect us to win any of these four games this year, it would be nice to play at least two of these games very close – maybe a touchdown or so behind going into the fourth quarter.

I realize there are other tough PFL teams, but the four schools I mentioned above are all private schools like us and are all in the same category as we are when it comes to annual rankings, etc.

Paul

I'd throw Marist in there as well.  Interesting is that of the four teams you mentioned, 78, Drake is the one team we were most competitive with over the last 5 years for some weird reason. 4 of the last 5 games were what we probably would consider 'competitive.'

  2009 (BC) - 24-34 (lost by 10)
  2010 - 19-21 (lost by 2)
  2011 - 0-50 (ouch)
  2012 - 21-35 (lost by 14)
  2013 - 10-23 (lost by 13)

During the past 4 years, those are some of the closest PFL losses on the VU record

{BC = Before Carlson}

Pioneer League Coaches preseason picks are out: Valpo picked to finish last but only 1 vote behind Davidson.

1.	San Diego (5)	90
2.	Dayton	82
3.	Jacksonville (3)	80
4.	Butler (2)	77
5.	Drake (1)	73
6.	Marist	61
7.	Campbell	38
8.	Morehead State	35
9.	Stetson	30
10.	Davidson	20
11.	Valparaiso	19
		First-place votes in parentheses 10 points awarded for a first-place vote, with one point less for each succeeding place. (Maximum score = 100) Coaches were not allowed to vote for their own team

Valparaiso will enter 2014 with head coach Dave Cecchini in his first year as head coach after the Crusaders picked up one win against the league's toughest schedule last season (they faced each of the top five teams). Valparaiso will also be under new leadership at quarterback this season, but will return running back Brandon Hall (89 carries, 365 yards) and wide receiver Tanner Kuramata (879 yards, 8 TDs, 56 receptions) – the leading rusher and receiver on last year's squad. Defensively, linebacker Alex Green (110 tackles, 4½ TFL) returns after ranking third among PFL tacklers last season.

Full article: http://www.pioneer-football.org/news/archives/2014/961/san-diego-gets-coaches-nod-to-win-2014-pioneer-football-league-race/ (http://www.pioneer-football.org/news/archives/2014/961/san-diego-gets-coaches-nod-to-win-2014-pioneer-football-league-race/)

Wow,  didn't realize we played the leagues toughest schedule last year.  Interesting that Dayton got no 1st place votes but still came in as the #2 team in the poll.

Here's our 2014 opponents in BOLD below. So, it's about the same this year except if Jacksonville winds up #3 in the standings we'll only have faced 4 out of the top 5   ::)  Would have been a bit more helpful if we had gotten Stetson instead of, say, Dayton.


1.   @San Diego (5)   90
2.   @Dayton   82
3.   Jacksonville (3)   80
4.   Butler (2)   77
5.   Drake (1)   73
6.   Marist   61
7.   @Campbell   38
8.   @Morehead State   35
9.   Stetson   30
10.   Davidson   20
11.   Valparaiso   19

Quote from: VULB#62 on July 29, 2014, 12:04:25 PMWow,  didn't realize we played the leagues toughest schedule last year. 

Always easier to have played the toughest schedule when you're in the basement ;)

The PFL should learn from the NFL -- massage the schedule a little so that the bottom of the league has a better chance to get a few victories by scheduling more among themselves than among the steel of the league. Alas, that would not have helped us much in the past 4 years though.  Sigh.    :(

Hey, at least they are facing John Davidson U.  They need to get revenge from the 2012 screwup.

Quote from: VULB#62 on July 29, 2014, 12:04:25 PM
Wow,  didn't realize we played the leagues toughest schedule last year.  Interesting that Dayton got no 1st place votes but still came in as the #2 team in the poll.

Here's our 2014 opponents in BOLD below. So, it's about the same this year except if Jacksonville winds up #3 in the standings we'll only have faced 4 out of the top 5   ::)  Would have been a bit more helpful if we had gotten Stetson instead of, say, Dayton.


1.   @San Diego (5)   90
2.   @Dayton   82
3.   Jacksonville (3)   80
4.   Butler (2)   77
5.   Drake (1)   73
6.   Marist   61
7.   @Campbell   38
8.   @Morehead State   35
9.   Stetson   30
10.   Davidson   20
11.   Valparaiso   19

Too bad we can't schedule ourselves. Although it might be the first 300 something to 300 something football game in the history of the NCAA. Until they actually turn the team  around by winning more than 1 game a year I can keep the jokes coming. I'm hoping it's better motivation for the team and coaching staff. I'll probably be at the Butler at Valpo game this season especially if it looks like Valpo has a chance.   

Only two weeks left before the first game.  From other posts, it looks like there is some competition at the QB and RB spots, and I'm sure at almost every other position as well. 

So far, we have two voters saying the season will be another (in a long line of) 0 or 1 win; twelve voters in the 2-4 win column; seven voters in the 5-6 win column; and one very optimistic voter in 9-12 win column.  I personally do not see the 9 wins happening, but do feel it is possible.  If Cecchini performs his magic on offense and we average another 9 points per game (and keep the defense off the field), and the defense can limit the number of long scoring plays from scrimage getting down to the 32 ppg area (from 44 last year), anything can happen. 

Good luck to the 2014 Football Team!

If Valpo wins 8 or more games ...
-   Valpo will get national recognition for an incredible turn around.  It would not matter if they are in the Pioneer League, this would make national headlines
-   Cecchini will get job offers for bigger opportunities and will likely be gone, and you cannot blame him if he left.


Again, in reality a 4 win season would be a significant improvement over the Carlson years.

Quote from: usc4valpo on August 14, 2014, 05:26:47 PMAgain, in reality a 4 win season would be a significant improvement over the Carlson years.

Reality is creeping up!