The Valparaiso Beacons Fan Zone Forum

Conference Schedule:
Jan. 2         Illinois State     
Jan. 5         at Missouri State
Jan. 8         Bradley
Jan. 12       at Southern Illinois
Jan. 15       at Loyola
Jan. 19      UNI
Jan. 23       at Indiana State
Jan. 26      Drake
Jan. 29      Missouri State
Feb. 2         at Evansville
Feb. 5         at Illinois State
Feb. 10      Loyola
Feb. 13      Indiana State
Feb. 16       at Drake
Feb. 20      Southern Illinois
Feb. 23       at UNI
Feb. 27       at Bradley
Mar. 2        Evansville

A roster loaded with improved returning players, the addition of a very talented and experienced Ryan Fazekas (who could become our no. 1 option), and 2 hotshot Freshmen, I think the Crusaders could finish anywhere from 1st to 4th. Thus, I went bold and predicted 2nd.

3rd for all of the reasons mentioned above.

4th for all of the reasons mentioned above while being mindful that this is a 6 place leap up the standings for us from last season.  Not bad for year #2.

I really want to predict a top 4 finish but it's really difficult for me to do so. There's too much returning talent among the Illinois teams UNI and Missouri State have a lot of talent still. Indiana State will be better and Drake and Evansville may not fall as far as you think. If literally everything breaks right we can finish maybe 2nd or 3rd but realistically I think we should be aiming to be the best of the second tier (5-8 place). 19-20 is our year to go for the top.

I picked fourth as well.  But, we may be better then we think.  Here's why:  In spite of all the problems, inexperience and health issues associated with last years team, our last place Crusaders lost EIGHT conference games--on the road--by 9 or less, four by 6 or less and one of those losses was against a Final Four team.  Against an over-matched Missouri State team, we improved from losing by 17 (at home) to a road loss of 7 and then a tourney loss of only 4. We avenged road losses against Bradley and Illinois State.

Granted that we lost a great player in Tevonn and that other teams didn't stand pat, but, the squad we will put on the floor should be VERY competitive.  Can't wait!!

Quote from: VUGrad1314 on September 06, 2018, 10:00:59 AM
I really want to predict a top 4 finish but it's really difficult for me to do so. There's too much returning talent among the Illinois teams UNI and Missouri State have a lot of talent still. Indiana State will be better and Drake and Evansville may not fall as far as you think. If literally everything breaks right we can finish maybe 2nd or 3rd but realistically I think we should be aiming to be the best of the second tier (5-8 place). 19-20 is our year to go for the top.

I hope you're wrong for a couple of reasons:

• I'm not going to look again, but I recall that we have the highest player star average in the league. Before anyone pounces, I know that doesn't equate in all cases, I know that neither AP nor Ryan were 3-Star players and look where they ended up, blah, blah, blah. I get all that. But I also get this - the most talented team on paper should not equate to a 6th place finish. If having a bunch of experienced 3-Star players doesn't put us in a position to compete for a mid-major championship (as a 6th place finish would indicate), something is wrong.
• I seriously doubt that Matt or Mark are looking at this season as merely a stepping stone to next year. They know that this team is talented - and experienced. I'm sure their expectations (not hopes) are much higher than a bottom half finish. Why should the fan base expect less?
• Valpo doesn't have a history of "taking turns." It has out performed sister programs in 2 different leagues over 3 decades. It dominates.
We should never be satisfied with less. If this  move becomes the Peter Principle, it was a mistake.

Quote from: wh on September 06, 2018, 11:03:59 AM

Quote from: VUGrad1314 on September 06, 2018, 10:00:59 AM
I really want to predict a top 4 finish but it's really difficult for me to do so. There's too much returning talent among the Illinois teams UNI and Missouri State have a lot of talent still. Indiana State will be better and Drake and Evansville may not fall as far as you think. If literally everything breaks right we can finish maybe 2nd or 3rd but realistically I think we should be aiming to be the best of the second tier (5-8 place). 19-20 is our year to go for the top.

I hope you're wrong for a couple of reasons:

• I'm not going to look again, but I recall that we have the highest player star average in the league. Before anyone pounces, I know that doesn't equate in all cases, I know that neither AP nor Ryan were 3-Star players and look where they ended up, blah, blah, blah. I get all that. But I also get this - the most talented team on paper should not equate to a 6th place finish. If having a bunch of experienced 3-Star players doesn't put us in a position to compete for a mid-major championship (as a 6th place finish would indicate), something is wrong.
• I seriously doubt that Matt or Mark are looking at this season as merely a stepping stone to next year. They know that this team is talented - and experienced. I'm sure their expectations (not hopes) are much higher than a bottom half finish. Why should the fan base expect less?
• Valpo doesn't have a history of "taking turns." It has out performed sister programs in 2 different leagues over 3 decades. It dominates.
We should never be satisfied with less. If this  move becomes the Peter Principle, it was a mistake.

I was with you until your last sentence. This move can NEVER be called a mistake. The elevated recruiting, the increased regional and  national exposure, and Loyola's run and the money and press it generated for the conference have settled that question without equivocation or doubt.

Quote from: VUGrad1314 on September 06, 2018, 11:14:49 AM

Quote from: wh on September 06, 2018, 11:03:59 AM

Quote from: VUGrad1314 on September 06, 2018, 10:00:59 AM
I really want to predict a top 4 finish but it's really difficult for me to do so. There's too much returning talent among the Illinois teams UNI and Missouri State have a lot of talent still. Indiana State will be better and Drake and Evansville may not fall as far as you think. If literally everything breaks right we can finish maybe 2nd or 3rd but realistically I think we should be aiming to be the best of the second tier (5-8 place). 19-20 is our year to go for the top.

I hope you're wrong for a couple of reasons:

• I'm not going to look again, but I recall that we have the highest player star average in the league. Before anyone pounces, I know that doesn't equate in all cases, I know that neither AP nor Ryan were 3-Star players and look where they ended up, blah, blah, blah. I get all that. But I also get this - the most talented team on paper should not equate to a 6th place finish. If having a bunch of experienced 3-Star players doesn't put us in a position to compete for a mid-major championship (as a 6th place finish would indicate), something is wrong.
• I seriously doubt that Matt or Mark are looking at this season as merely a stepping stone to next year. They know that this team is talented - and experienced. I'm sure their expectations (not hopes) are much higher than a bottom half finish. Why should the fan base expect less?
• Valpo doesn't have a history of "taking turns." It has out performed sister programs in 2 different leagues over 3 decades. It dominates.
We should never be satisfied with less. If this  move becomes the Peter Principle, it was a mistake.

I was with you until your last sentence. This move can NEVER be called a mistake. The elevated recruiting, the increased regional and  national exposure, and Loyola's run and the money and press it generated for the conference have settled that question without equivocation or doubt.

Nothing is "settled without equivocation" after only 1 year and a 10th place finish. No one ever questioned that the MVC is a much better league and provides opportunities for better recruiting, exposure, etc. The question is how quickly and to what extent we take advantage of said opportunities. There is no way of knowing at this point whether we will be a "the cream always rises to the top" story or become mired in mediocrity at the other extreme.

Quote from: VUGrad1314 on September 06, 2018, 11:14:49 AM

Quote from: wh on September 06, 2018, 11:03:59 AM

Quote from: VUGrad1314 on September 06, 2018, 10:00:59 AM
I really want to predict a top 4 finish but it's really difficult for me to do so. There's too much returning talent among the Illinois teams UNI and Missouri State have a lot of talent still. Indiana State will be better and Drake and Evansville may not fall as far as you think. If literally everything breaks right we can finish maybe 2nd or 3rd but realistically I think we should be aiming to be the best of the second tier (5-8 place). 19-20 is our year to go for the top.

I hope you're wrong for a couple of reasons:

• I'm not going to look again, but I recall that we have the highest player star average in the league. Before anyone pounces, I know that doesn't equate in all cases, I know that neither AP nor Ryan were 3-Star players and look where they ended up, blah, blah, blah. I get all that. But I also get this - the most talented team on paper should not equate to a 6th place finish. If having a bunch of experienced 3-Star players doesn't put us in a position to compete for a mid-major championship (as a 6th place finish would indicate), something is wrong.
• I seriously doubt that Matt or Mark are looking at this season as merely a stepping stone to next year. They know that this team is talented - and experienced. I'm sure their expectations (not hopes) are much higher than a bottom half finish. Why should the fan base expect less?
• Valpo doesn't have a history of "taking turns." It has out performed sister programs in 2 different leagues over 3 decades. It dominates.
We should never be satisfied with less. If this  move becomes the Peter Principle, it was a mistake.

I was with you until your last sentence. This move can NEVER be called a mistake. The elevated recruiting, the increased regional and  national exposure, and Loyola's run and the money and press it generated for the conference have settled that question without equivocation or doubt.

Never say never.  Big fish in a medium size pond that goes to the NCAA tournament 50% of their seasons is one heck of a feather in the cap.  This only happens in the MVC with sizable improvements on all fronts for the VU program.  And let me say now, there is no metric we can use that crosses the Belmont approach vs the Valpo approach.  Simply put we are different schools, in different markets with different priorities.

But yes, I get where you are coming from.  Even this cautious optimist can see the long term benefits that Belmont can reap in the OVC.  You have to remember that nearly all college athletics departments are simply a value-add and not how the university steers the ship.

Quote from: wh on September 06, 2018, 11:03:59 AM
• Valpo doesn't have a history of "taking turns." It has out performed sister programs in 2 different leagues over 3 decades. It dominates.
We should never be satisfied with less. If this  move becomes the Peter Principle, it was a mistake.

It will be a challenge, but if Valpo can dominate the MVC the way it did the Horizon, the sky is the limit.  Both Creighton and Wichita were able to leverage MVC dominance into power conference invites.

Quote from: wh on September 06, 2018, 11:55:10 AM

Quote from: VUGrad1314 on September 06, 2018, 11:14:49 AM

Quote from: wh on September 06, 2018, 11:03:59 AM

Quote from: VUGrad1314 on September 06, 2018, 10:00:59 AM
I really want to predict a top 4 finish but it's really difficult for me to do so. There's too much returning talent among the Illinois teams UNI and Missouri State have a lot of talent still. Indiana State will be better and Drake and Evansville may not fall as far as you think. If literally everything breaks right we can finish maybe 2nd or 3rd but realistically I think we should be aiming to be the best of the second tier (5-8 place). 19-20 is our year to go for the top.

I hope you're wrong for a couple of reasons:

• I'm not going to look again, but I recall that we have the highest player star average in the league. Before anyone pounces, I know that doesn't equate in all cases, I know that neither AP nor Ryan were 3-Star players and look where they ended up, blah, blah, blah. I get all that. But I also get this - the most talented team on paper should not equate to a 6th place finish. If having a bunch of experienced 3-Star players doesn't put us in a position to compete for a mid-major championship (as a 6th place finish would indicate), something is wrong.
• I seriously doubt that Matt or Mark are looking at this season as merely a stepping stone to next year. They know that this team is talented - and experienced. I'm sure their expectations (not hopes) are much higher than a bottom half finish. Why should the fan base expect less?
• Valpo doesn't have a history of "taking turns." It has out performed sister programs in 2 different leagues over 3 decades. It dominates.
We should never be satisfied with less. If this  move becomes the Peter Principle, it was a mistake.

I was with you until your last sentence. This move can NEVER be called a mistake. The elevated recruiting, the increased regional and  national exposure, and Loyola's run and the money and press it generated for the conference have settled that question without equivocation or doubt.

Nothing is "settled without equivocation" after only 1 year and a 10th place finish. No one ever questioned that the MVC is a much better league and provides opportunities for better recruiting, exposure, etc. The question is how quickly and to what extent we take advantage of said opportunities. There is no way of knowing at this point whether we will be a "the cream always rises to the top" story or become mired in mediocrity at the other extreme.

So you're basically saying if we don't win the MVC every year it's a bad move?

After SIU's last win in 06-07 Here's the list of champions through 11-12):

Drake
Creighton
UNI
Missouri State
Wichita State (first of five out of six but this is also the point where WSU's budget really began to severely outstrip the rest of the conference)

This is the kind of era I think we may be in. NOBODY'S going to dominate this league in all likelihood. We should worry when we cease to consistently turn in top 75-100 seasons. And to be fair it took 4 mediocre years in the HL before we started dominating and attrition--particularly losing Butler-- helped us sustain that. But we're expecting to dominate a tougher league in year two and if we don't it's a mistake? Without this move to the MVC we don't have the impetus to do all the things we're doing now that fans have been calling for for years. That alone makes it worthwhile.

Quote from: wh on September 06, 2018, 11:03:59 AMIf this  move becomes the Peter Principle, it was a mistake.

We may already be holding the best cards for the 2019-20 MVC championship. So any talk of us having risen to to our level of incompetence seems a bit misplaced.  ::)

As for 2018-19, I can easily imagine the #1 seed finishing with a 13-5 MVC record and a cluster of tiebreakers sorting out a complete mess at and near the top. With that as my starting point I'll go with 11-7 and 4'th. No--- I can not logically explain my thinking.

The Peter Principle states that everyone eventually reaches the level of their incompetence if they choose to continually rise up whatever ladder they are climbing -- e.g., The great computer programmer who sees himself making more money as a manager only to find out that he can't relate well to people.  The high school football star who washes out of an FBS program because he couldn't adapt to the faster pace.  The bonus winning salesperson who starts their own company only to find out that they lack management skills and fnancial acumen. 

What WH stated is quite accurate in this regard and at this point in time.  But what he inferred by "mistake" is not to be confused with "it was a mistake to join the MVC last year."  In the Peter Principle, you only realize the mistake (if it indeed was one) AFTER the move up the ladder is made -- and it often takes a while to establish your "incompetence."  Basically, Valpo has to give it their very best shot and leave nothing on the table along the way.  And if, after 5-6 years, we can't break out of the bottom half of the league (or worse, we turn into a consistent MVC  bottomfeeder), then we can acknowlege that we've reached incompetency and invoke the mistake card.

It's still not a mistake because of the other benefits incurred and a program is always one hire away from turning everything around.

Quote from: VUGrad1314 on September 06, 2018, 01:22:50 PM
It's still not a mistake because of the other benefits incurred and a program is always one absolutely incredible hire away from turning everything around.

I adjusted your statement a bit because you can make a number of hires until the right guy comes along, so it, too is a gamble.   

Ours was a great move.  I'm not aguing that.  I'm merely addressing how the Peter Principle can really screw stuff up.   Our move is not a mistake now and will not be a mistake for several years (if ever), but there are other components at work here to rising above incompetence and those might be out of the control of the Athletic Department and any MBB staff.  This is not just one person involved in a move up the ladder; it is an entire university that stepped on the next rung upward.   

I picked 5th because I tend to be conservative about predictions and like to leave room to be pleasantly surprised.

My opinions are based solely on my impressions and if the stats don't support them, chaulk it up to advancing age.

To finish higher than 5th, our bigs have to show the kind of defensive improvement Vashil did between his second and third year. Now neither of our bigs have Vashil's athleticism, but they both need to improve a lot more than average on defense and rebounding.

Unless Mileek jumps from a freshman straight to a junior performance level or Ryan channels his inner Alec Peters and becomes a steady defender and rebounder we will be weak in those areas at the four. Mileek has the potential, and Ryan has the shot to make up for some weaknesses. But other than Ryan's own statements that he is working hard on the other things i don't recall any observations that he is showing great improvement in the inside part of his game either on offense or defense. And if John Kiser gets major minutes at the four (much as I like and admire the kid) we will be hurting there.

I think Golder will be great at the three. He really showed improvement over last season. If Ryan plays a lot of three rather than the four he will be a major three point threat, but may have problems defensively against smaller, quicker players.

We have a lot of guards who will be looking for playing time. Bakari also improved a lot over last season, but I'm not convinced he wouldn't be better at the two rather than point. Micah had another horrendous shooting performance last year but did show some improvement toward the end of the season, particularly in ball handling and distribution once he stopped throwing up bricks and looked to be a playmaking point. If he could improve to just an average shooter who looks to penetrate and distribute first, he could find a lot of time. Where Lavender will fit in, I haven't a clue. The two freshman would have to become contributors quickly to make me think this group can take us higher than fifth.

All in all, a lot of potential but too many questions as to how much improvement there will be over last year for me to perdict higher than 5th.

If I had to put money down, I would take 6th place.  So that's my vote.  But we have huge upside...in fact we have 14 feet of unharnessed upside (Jaime and Smits).   And of course Liberty and the transfers. I won't bet the farm on the towers or melding fast enough as a team.   We are built for 2019-2020.

I killed some time at Walgreens yesterday and there is a pre-season mag out already.  Can't recall which.  I think Street and Smiths.   They ranked us #5 behind Loyola, Illinois State, SIU, and Bradley.  They didn't like MoSU. 

Rebounding is going to be a huge issue again and may cost us some games unless we cover it up with superior offense. Smits must continue his offensive improvement and learn to at least defend passably. Sorolla must become at least semi-credible on offense.I don't think we'll be plagued by as many long and frustrating scoring droughts as I believe Evelyn Golder and Fazekas all have go-to-scorer potential. Freeman and Sackey too, but so many games will be decided up front on the glass and until they prove otherwise, we have HL bigs going against MVC competition. That's why it's hard for me to pick us higher than 5th.

Quote from: nkvu on September 06, 2018, 03:31:54 PM
I picked 5th because I tend to be conservative about predictions and like to leave room to be pleasantly surprised.

My opinions are based solely on my impressions and if the stats don't support them, chaulk it up to advancing age.

To finish higher than 5th, our bigs have to show the kind of defensive improvement Vashil did between his second and third year. Now neither of our bigs have Vashil's athleticism, but they both need to improve a lot more than average on defense and rebounding.

Unless Mileek jumps from a freshman straight to a junior performance level or Ryan channels his inner Alec Peters and becomes a steady defender and rebounder we will be weak in those areas at the four. Mileek has the potential, and Ryan has the shot to make up for some weaknesses. But other than Ryan's own statements that he is working hard on the other things i don't recall any observations that he is showing great improvement in the inside part of his game either on offense or defense. And if John Kiser gets major minutes at the four (much as I like and admire the kid) we will be hurting there.

I think Golder will be great at the three. He really showed improvement over last season. If Ryan plays a lot of three rather than the four he will be a major three point threat, but may have problems defensively against smaller, quicker players.

We have a lot of guards who will be looking for playing time. Bakari also improved a lot over last season, but I'm not convinced he wouldn't be better at the two rather than point. Micah had another horrendous shooting performance last year but did show some improvement toward the end of the season, particularly in ball handling and distribution once he stopped throwing up bricks and looked to be a playmaking point. If he could improve to just an average shooter who looks to penetrate and distribute first, he could find a lot of time. Where Lavender will fit in, I haven't a clue. The two freshman would have to become contributors quickly to make me think this group can take us higher than fifth.

All in all, a lot of potential but too many questions as to how much improvement there will be over last year for me to perdict higher than 5th.

NKVU does an outstanding job describing my thoughts on this years upcoming season and our weakness.  I too like to be pleasantly surprised and I don't see us breaking into the top half of the league just yet (6 is my vote).

1) Ours bigs defensively need juevos
2) We have a lot of unproven play set to get big minutes with both potential F positions
3) Golder and Bakari need to be go-to players for scoring next year
4) Bakari is not a true PG
5) Micah is a true PG once he starts to make smart (distribution first) decisions, he is simply not consistent enough at FG/3pt/FT to warranty high volume of shots
6) Our freshmen will not consistently contribute on this years team, as good as they look there is no reason to think they should

I predict we will be competitive in very nearly all our MVC games and that we should be 9-9 MVC and 7-5 OOC for an overall record of 16-14 before MVC tournament or post season.  I also predict we will not choose to participate in post season play because NIT won't come calling with that record.

Just too many questions marks on this Junior and younger team with (5) new players and (2) transfers sitting out.

(7) returning players with minutes last year
(5) first timers (Fazekas, Lavender, Sackey, Freeman and Langston Stalling)
(2) transfers sitting out

Not enough consistency to break into the top 4 when around 41% of your available roster is first-timers in a VU uniform.  Good news is, depending on how we play MVC, 9-9 was good enough for 5th last year.

7Th lets play into a higher ranking

https://twitter.com/CBB_Central/status/1038077940880297984

In what is expected to be a loaded MVC might that be good enough to get us into the NIT?

Quote from: VUGrad1314 on September 07, 2018, 11:24:54 AM
In what is expected to be a loaded MVC might that be good enough to get us into the NIT?

I think it depends on the OOC results. But the MVC's lowest RPI team was like a 160 something and ISUr still didn't get a invite to the NIT. So much disrespect. The conference really beat each other up in conference play last year.

Quote from: VU2014 on September 07, 2018, 11:33:59 AM

Quote from: VUGrad1314 on September 07, 2018, 11:24:54 AM
In what is expected to be a loaded MVC might that be good enough to get us into the NIT?

I think it depends on the OOC results. But the MVC's lowest RPI team was like a 160 something and ISUr still didn't get a invite to the NIT. So much disrespect. The conference really beat each other up in conference play last year.

And the ironic part to my mind is teams in the (say Horizon or other mid-major tournaments) might be more invested in playing hard and drawing a crowd since nothing is guaranteed in our world.  Maybe I am wrong here, but P6 schools almost certainly have a larger fan base but what are the chances they show up in volume to a tournament that is "below them"?

Also, NIT is a big enough tournament for mid-major players while maybe P6 seniors say "mehhhh, I am going to go prepare for NBA or Europe instead of playing in this tournament".  To my mind, most Valpo players have played the NIT and even CBI in the years that Valpo has elected to participate.

I believe Valpo had a mindset of it's a team vote and if the team votes Y then everyone plays?

Quote from: FieldGoodie05 on September 07, 2018, 11:54:09 AM

Quote from: VU2014 on September 07, 2018, 11:33:59 AM

Quote from: VUGrad1314 on September 07, 2018, 11:24:54 AM
In what is expected to be a loaded MVC might that be good enough to get us into the NIT?

I think it depends on the OOC results. But the MVC's lowest RPI team was like a 160 something and ISUr still didn't get a invite to the NIT. So much disrespect. The conference really beat each other up in conference play last year.

And the ironic part to my mind is teams in the (say Horizon or other mid-major tournaments) might be more invested in playing hard and drawing a crowd since nothing is guaranteed in our world.  Maybe I am wrong here, but P6 schools almost certainly have a larger fan base but what are the chances they show up in volume to a tournament that is "below them"?

Also, NIT is a big enough tournament for mid-major players while maybe P6 seniors say "mehhhh, I am going to go prepare for NBA or Europe instead of playing in this tournament".  To my mind, most Valpo players have played the NIT and even CBI in the years that Valpo has elected to participate.

I believe Valpo had a mindset of it's a team vote and if the team votes Y then everyone plays?

I think you're generally correct, although I do recall an occasion where at least 1 player chose to skip a post season game and a few other times where the team appeared to be disinterested. 

I went 5th...not sold our coaching staff and roster is up to the task yet.  Counting on being proven wrong!

Quote from: M on September 07, 2018, 12:20:48 PM
I went 5th...not sold our coaching staff and roster is up to the task yet.  Counting on being proven wrong!

I went 5th place as well. It seems like a reasonable target, but maybe we can finish 3rd or 4th if everything really comes together.

I'm going to be really monitoring the progress of the offense. This may be the first season we get see what a Lottich run offense looks like. His first season the offense had to run through AP (not a bad option but we were some what limited that season especially when AP got hurt) and Jubril missed most of the season. Last season the offense was heavily suppose to feature Joe Burton but we all know how that turned out once he left the team right before conference play started and Tevonn was never 100% healthy. Last season was rough but probably will pay dividends for guys like Golder, Bakari and Smits.

We think a lot of guys on this roster can/should take the next step but we need to see it on the court.

6th, which I think is pretty much everyone else's 5th.

Team continuity plays a big part. Valpo needs a season for real team play to develop enough to finish in the top 4 of the MVC. That could be anywhere from 2 to 4 in 2019-20.

I can understand some early struggles from Freeman Sackey Lavender and Fazekas but we've got plenty of team continuity. Tevonn's sickness, Kiser's injury and  Burton's suspension forced many of our players into roles they weren't supposed to play yet. The dividends of that will begin to pay off. Freeman and Sackey are putting in a lot of work with the team Lavender is a grad transfer and should know what to do and Fazekas has had a year and two summers of practice. Continuity isn't an issue and it especially shouldn't be in 19-20. I think the best thing for our guards\wings is that they'll have two very talented players in Gordon and Robinson to go against in practice.

Quote from: VUGrad1314 on September 07, 2018, 02:15:31 PM
I can understand some early struggles from Freeman Sackey Lavender and Fazekas but we've got plenty of team continuity. Tevonn's sickness, Kiser's injury and  Burton's suspension forced many of our players into roles they weren't supposed to play yet. The dividends of that will begin to pay off. Freeman and Sackey are putting in a lot of work with the team Lavender is a grad transfer and should know what to do and Fazekas has had a year and two summers of practice. Continuity isn't an issue and it especially shouldn't be in 19-20. I think the best thing for our guards\wings is that they'll have two very talented players in Gordon and Robinson to go against in practice.

Technically Fazekas was recovering from shoulder surgery from a injury he sustained while at Providence. I think that cost him last summer.

I know this is WAY to early to be talking about but I think Ryan might have a case for another year of eligibility with the NCAA, because he had a serious bout with mono his freshman year that cost him, but tried to play through it. And his last year at Providence he played through a shoulder injury that required surgery. He probably could have tried to take a RS but he played through it for the team. But as we all very well know around here the NCAA is idiotic from time to time (took K Carter's last year away from him) but they've been generous in times like Vashil's case.   

Fazekas played 28 games his Freshman year and 30 games in his Sophomore year. There is no way he gets another year (beyond the two remaining). Carter should have gotten another year because he played in three games for a total of 39 minutes.

For the 27 members predicting Valpo's finish - despite how 'abnormal' the predictors might be, the distribution of predictions looks very normal.

Quote from: vu84v2 on September 07, 2018, 02:58:17 PM
Fazekas played 28 games his Freshman year and 30 games in his Sophomore year. There is no way he gets another year (beyond the two remaining). Carter should have gotten another year because he played in three games for a total of 39 minutes.

I wouldn't bet on it but I could see a case for protesting an additional year. He was really hampered by health issues his first couple years.

Quote from: VU2014 on September 07, 2018, 03:04:52 PM

Quote from: vu84v2 on September 07, 2018, 02:58:17 PM
Fazekas played 28 games his Freshman year and 30 games in his Sophomore year. There is no way he gets another year (beyond the two remaining). Carter should have gotten another year because he played in three games for a total of 39 minutes.

I wouldn't bet on it but I could see a case for protesting an additional year. He was really hampered by health issues his first couple years.

You don't get a redshirt year because you played a full season, but you weren't 100%. Period. Full stop.

Quote from: vusupporter on September 07, 2018, 03:45:32 PM

Quote from: VU2014 on September 07, 2018, 03:04:52 PM

Quote from: vu84v2 on September 07, 2018, 02:58:17 PM
Fazekas played 28 games his Freshman year and 30 games in his Sophomore year. There is no way he gets another year (beyond the two remaining). Carter should have gotten another year because he played in three games for a total of 39 minutes.

I wouldn't bet on it but I could see a case for protesting an additional year. He was really hampered by health issues his first couple years.

You don't get a redshirt year because you played a full season, but you weren't 100%. Period. Full stop.

It's not always as black and white as you'd think... but as I said it's probably unlikely.

Quote from: VU2014 on September 07, 2018, 01:13:39 PMI'm going to be really monitoring the progress of the offense. This may be the first season we get see what a Lottich run offense looks like. His first season the offense had to run through AP (not a bad option but we were some what limited that season especially when AP got hurt) and Jubril missed most of the season. Last season the offense was heavily suppose to feature Joe Burton but we all know how that turned out once he left the team right before conference play started and Tevonn was never 100% healthy. Last season was rough but probably will pay dividends for guys like Golder, Bakari and Smits.

Well said VU2014. So much of a season's outcome depends on injuries, suspensions and depth.  Last years team was built around Burton and Tevonn and as VU2014 stated that team never played a conference game. With Burton and a healthy Tevonn last years team at least ties Bradley at 9-9 for fourth place an improvement of only 3 W's.  One of last years other adversities was preparation and play against 9 unfamiliar teams in for the most part unfamiliar or maybe I should say less familiar venues. I believe this challenge was very apparent especially in the first half of the conference season. We should be much more prepare for the beginning of conference this year. Barring significant roster changes or injuries this should be a top 4 team.

It's just so hard to justify picking a team that finished last so high in a year where the conference is so tremendously loaded. That said there's a reasonable argument that can be made that the we're more talented than Bradley deeper than SIU especially if Bol doesn't play and are better coached than Illinois State. However, those teams all got a taste of the ARC and what it's like last year. You'd think they'll be better prepared for that next year. It won't be easy but nothing worth having or pursuing is. That's the beauty of the MVC. I hope we're up to the challenge. Go Valpo!

Quote from: VU2014 on September 07, 2018, 08:36:19 PM

Quote from: vusupporter on September 07, 2018, 03:45:32 PM

Quote from: VU2014 on September 07, 2018, 03:04:52 PM

Quote from: vu84v2 on September 07, 2018, 02:58:17 PMFazekas played 28 games his Freshman year and 30 games in his Sophomore year. There is no way he gets another year (beyond the two remaining). Carter should have gotten another year because he played in three games for a total of 39 minutes.

I wouldn't bet on it but I could see a case for protesting an additional year. He was really hampered by health issues his first couple years.

You don't get a redshirt year because you played a full season, but you weren't 100%. Period. Full stop.

It's not always as black and white as you'd think... but as I said it's probably unlikely.

It's pretty black and white. You can't play in more than 30% of the games in the season and it must be considered a season ending injury.

They make exceptions for kids with varying circumstances/situations. The NCAA is inconsistent on petitions for extra years of eligibility. I'm not saying it's likely. All I said is it's possible. Let's just drop it, because it's not relevant right now.

Also, welcome to the forum mvredbird.

Quote from: mvredbird on September 08, 2018, 03:12:34 PM

Quote from: VU2014 on September 07, 2018, 08:36:19 PM

Quote from: vusupporter on September 07, 2018, 03:45:32 PM

Quote from: VU2014 on September 07, 2018, 03:04:52 PM

Quote from: vu84v2 on September 07, 2018, 02:58:17 PMFazekas played 28 games his Freshman year and 30 games in his Sophomore year. There is no way he gets another year (beyond the two remaining). Carter should have gotten another year because he played in three games for a total of 39 minutes.

I wouldn't bet on it but I could see a case for protesting an additional year. He was really hampered by health issues his first couple years.

You don't get a redshirt year because you played a full season, but you weren't 100%. Period. Full stop.

It's not always as black and white as you'd think... but as I said it's probably unlikely.

It's pretty black and white. You can't play in more than 30% of the games in the season and it must be considered a season ending injury.

That's been my understanding as well.

With 31 votes in over 60% say that we will finish either 4th or 5th.

MVC fan rankings are taking place on the MVCFan board right now. The voting is for 8th place right now.

https://www.mvcfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=5084

8th...
9th...Drake
10th...evansville

I refuse to look at it. Too many negative vibes.

I have to say... I was not encouraged by the observations from the open practice posted in another thread. If he's right this year could be another rough one.

Quote from: VUGrad1314 on October 12, 2018, 11:24:07 PM
I have to say... I was not encouraged by the observations from the open practice posted in another thread. If he's right this year could be another rough one.

Can you elaborate? Who posted about a open practice? What was said? Does it look like the team has no cohesion or chemistry? This is concerning if it's the case.

Quote from: VU2014 on October 13, 2018, 12:02:44 AM

Quote from: VUGrad1314 on October 12, 2018, 11:24:07 PMI have to say... I was not encouraged by the observations from the open practice posted in another thread. If he's right this year could be another rough one.

Can you elaborate? Who posted about a open practice? What was said? Does it look like the team has no cohesion or chemistry? This is concerning if it's the case.

The following comes from Chairback in the MBB 2018-19 thread...

Quote from: Chairback on October 12, 2018, 09:22:25 PM The season ticket night was a dull event. Not much planning went into it to make it fun. A very seasoned crowd. It's like they had it to just have it. Here are my 2 cents: -I don't have the enthusiasm for the team that I had after seeing them at this "practice". They seem to lack a leader. They look just average. Almost a mix up of players who haven't found their way anywhere else and ended up at Valpo. - Sackey is fast but his shoot is below average -Mileek looks like the best player on the court. Kid looks focused. excited to see him progress. -Javon should start. -stalling has an awkward odd looking shot. Almost like he was never taught how to shoot correctly. I can't see him getting any PT ever. -if our bigs have another season like last year we are in trouble.

Quote from: VUGrad1314 on October 13, 2018, 12:16:27 AM

Quote from: VU2014 on October 13, 2018, 12:02:44 AM

Quote from: VUGrad1314 on October 12, 2018, 11:24:07 PMI have to say... I was not encouraged by the observations from the open practice posted in another thread. If he's right this year could be another rough one.

Can you elaborate? Who posted about a open practice? What was said? Does it look like the team has no cohesion or chemistry? This is concerning if it's the case.

The following comes from Chairback in the MBB 2018-19 thread...

Quote from: Chairback on October 12, 2018, 09:22:25 PM
The season ticket night was a dull event. Not much planning went into it to make it fun. A very seasoned crowd. It's like they had it to just have it. Here are my 2 cents:
-I don't have the enthusiasm for the team that I had after seeing them at this "practice". They seem to lack a leader. They look just average. Almost a mix up of players who haven't found their way anywhere else and ended up at Valpo.
- Sackey is fast but his shoot is below average
-Mileek looks like the best player on the court. Kid looks focused. excited to see him progress.
-Javon should start.
-stalling has an awkward odd looking shot. Almost like he was never taught how to shoot correctly. I can't see him getting any PT ever.
-if our bigs have another season like last year we are in trouble.

Question: Was this more of a showcase for fans or a legit practice? Were the guys actually playing hard and doing real drills and scrimmaging? Seeing the dunking makes it seem like more of a showcase but I wasn't there so I don't know.

It's really encouraging to hear Mileek is looking strong and that Javon looks legit. We need to see how they look against live competition before we can fully assess.

It was basically a shootaround. Nothing near a legitimate practice.

I attended the open practice, and I really don't think that much can be predicted based on what we saw.  The men were out first messing around shooting dunks (Coach Townsend was setting the bar throwing it down while wearing khakis).  When the women came out there were some three point shooting contests.  When the women competed against the men in the three-point contest, the women won.  Then they had mixed team competition.  Javon at one point hit six consecutive threes.  There was no defense played. 

I really believe that we'll need to wait for an exhibition game to get a hint of what the team brings to the table, but that will only be a hint given the level of the competition.

It's a shoot around no doubt, but you can tell a lot about talent from watching it.  You can pick up who has a good shoot, who doesn't.  If they look athletic or not, size vs other teams in the MVC, etc.

Who is the leader of this team?  Successful teams in the past always had a leader and hopefully someone has stepped up.  One of our issues last year is we had no leader.

Unless our two bigs step up we are no where near the top half of the MVC.  I think the season comes down to that.  If Bakari is not the point we have a hole in the lineup.  Bradford is not the answer and should not be here and Deion is unknown.  No doubt Sackey is fast but he's a freshman.

If Mileek has improved defensivley this guy is going to be very tough in this league.  You can just see it.  I think he has all the physical skills and is also a good shooter.  If you look back to his HS days and how he kept improving and advancing it's going to continue.

Also, i think this years coaching staff is much stronger than last years.  You can tell there is chemistry there. I really like Matt Bowen and it's huge we have him.

Quote from: Chairback on October 14, 2018, 08:47:27 AM
It's a shoot around no doubt, but you can tell a lot about talent from watching it.  You can pick up who has a good shoot, who doesn't.  If they look athletic or not, size vs other teams in the MVC, etc.

Who is the leader of this team?  Successful teams in the past always had a leader and hopefully someone has stepped up.  One of our issues last year is we had no leader.

Unless our two bigs step up we are no where near the top half of the MVC.  I think the season comes down to that.  If Bakari is not the point we have a hole in the lineup.  Bradford is not the answer and should not be here and Deion is unknown.  No doubt Sackey is fast but he's a freshman.

If Mileek has improved defensivley this guy is going to be very tough in this league.  You can just see it.  I think he has all the physical skills and is also a good shooter.  If you look back to his HS days and how he kept improving and advancing it's going to continue.

Also, i think this years coaching staff is much stronger than last years.  You can tell there is chemistry there. I really like Matt Bowen and it's huge we have him.

No mention of Ryan Fazekas.  Any thoughts?  I think Bakari and Marcus will be leaders as well as Deion.

Quote from: humbleopinion on October 14, 2018, 05:18:46 AM
I attended the open practice, and I really don't think that much can be predicted based on what we saw.  The men were out first messing around shooting dunks (Coach Townsend was setting the bar throwing it down while wearing khakis).  When the women came out there were some three point shooting contests.  When the women competed against the men in the three-point contest, the women won.  Then they had mixed team competition.  Javon at one point hit six consecutive threes.  There was no defense played. 

I really believe that we'll need to wait for an exhibition game to get a hint of what the team brings to the table, but that will only be a hint given the level of the competition.

Agreed. This didn't sound like a real practice where guys were trying. I know some have sat in on some open practices this Fall. You probably can tell more from those practices where they're running drills, scrimmaging and going hard in practice.

I'm relying on someone leaking to Paul and Michael how the team looked in the "secret" scrimmage against UIC on October 27. UIC will be a team full of upperclassmen and have played together for a while now. It will actually be a good test for the team. I wish we had that game in the non-conference schedule.

Quote from: Chairback on October 14, 2018, 08:47:27 AM
It's a shoot around no doubt, but you can tell a lot about talent from watching it.  You can pick up who has a good shoot, who doesn't.  If they look athletic or not, size vs other teams in the MVC, etc.

Who is the leader of this team?  Successful teams in the past always had a leader and hopefully someone has stepped up.  One of our issues last year is we had no leader.

Unless our two bigs step up we are no where near the top half of the MVC.  I think the season comes down to that.  If Bakari is not the point we have a hole in the lineup.  Bradford is not the answer and should not be here and Deion is unknown.  No doubt Sackey is fast but he's a freshman.

If Mileek has improved defensivley this guy is going to be very tough in this league.  You can just see it.  I think he has all the physical skills and is also a good shooter.  If you look back to his HS days and how he kept improving and advancing it's going to continue.

Also, i think this years coaching staff is much stronger than last years.  You can tell there is chemistry there. I really like Matt Bowen and it's huge we have him.

Can we really tell much about leadership from an event like this? If they're just goofing around and having fun, it might be difficult to read the team's leadership from this.

Interesting to hear that the coaching staff may be more cohesive than last years crew. I know that coach Dildy and Ragland were very well thought of. Coach Dildy actually recommended Coach Holloway for the job. Coach Lottich and Coach Holloway are obviously really close. But as you said, having Coach Bowen is huge. He has so much experience and is a great resource for a young HC like Coach Lottich.

I've mention it before but I want to see what a real Coach Lottich offense looks like. This will be our first season we get to see his vision for the offense, as long as we don't have any injuries or mid-season exits.

Current MVCFan Polls for 7th place

https://www.mvcfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=5085&p=116456#p116456

7th...
8th... Missouri State
9th... Drake
10th... evansville

With 30 votes totaled UNI is leading the vote with 37%, Indiana State with 33%, and Valpo with 17%.

If we finish 9th there will another very unhappy and concerned fan base this offseason.

If we finished in the 5-6 range and we were able to win a game against the top couple teams and be very competitive in every game I'd think the arrow sign would be pointing up for the next season and the program.

https://twitter.com/zha5/status/1051965975174754304

If we finish 7-10, not withstanding significant injuries, it will be not only a disappointment but a reason to examine the overall direction of the program.  Our team has 10 juniors (two of which can just practice) but of those, five of them are seniors, age wise.  No longer can we blame youth.  The next two seasons are critical as to whether or not we can recruit players able to compete in The Valley and also whether or not our coaches can properly manage those skills.

Quote from: vu72 on October 16, 2018, 09:28:51 AM
If we finish 7-10, not withstanding significant injuries, it will be not only a disappointment but a reason to examine the overall direction of the program.  Our team has 10 juniors (two of which can just practice) but of those, five of them are seniors, age wise.  No longer can we blame youth.  The next two seasons are critical as to whether or not we can recruit players able to compete in The Valley and also whether or not our coaches can properly manage those skills.

7-11*

Look at how close last season was. Three teams were tied with a 7-11 record. Indiana State finished with a 8-10 record and Bradley finished 9-9.

I think shooting for a .500 Conference record is reasonable this season. But I think what determines if the season is successful, is how we get there. I think .500 is exceptable for this IF the arrow is clearly pointing up and we could reasonably expect to be one of the favorites in 2019-20. We need to see this team step up.

If we were able to finish with a 10-8 record in this particular season Id be very happy considering, that the top 4 teams project to be very strong this season.

I'm kinda with VU72 on this.  I think anything less than top third will be a disappointment.  Prior to joining the MVC, if you go back to 12-13 season, and remove the Loyola games (because they were terrible), VU's record against the Valley was 6-1.  Granted, VU didn't play Witchita State or Illinois State when they were really good.  However, to not muster a decent winning record would be disappointing.

Playing a team once in the earlier portion of the season is a far cry from playing them twice a year in conference. Furthermore, most of those games were with Bryce at the helm and those teams going back to the 12-13 season and a bit beyond that even had NBA talent on them. Do you think anybody on the current roster is going to end up in the NBA? That remains to be seen but I'm not holding my breath

MVC Fan Poll:

https://www.mvcfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=5088&start=0

6th...
7th... Indiana State
8th... Missouri State
9th... Drake
10th... evansville

1314, that's the point - the team was previously better than it is now.  Ideally, the team proves that thought wrong, but if they don't, then as VU72 suggests, one has to question whether the team is trending up or down. 

After viewing segments of multiple practices, the one thing that sticks out with me is the incredible leap forward by Mileek. He looks like a completely different player.

Quote from: chef on October 16, 2018, 11:31:55 PM
After viewing segments of multiple practices, the one thing that sticks out with me is the incredible leap forward by Mileek. He looks like a completely different player.

Thanks for sharing Todd.  By "looks" so you mean in his physical appearance only?  Can you elaborate?

Quote from: 4throwfan on October 16, 2018, 11:22:11 PM
1314, that's the point - the team was previously better than it is now.  Ideally, the team proves that thought wrong, but if they don't, then as VU72 suggests, one has to question whether the team is trending up or down.

They are clearly trending up this year just based on what they have coming back, and I think long-term they're on an upward trend as well, but it just depends on what they continue to get on the recruiting trail and transfer market.  Getting NBAish talent shouldn't be the standard to measure whether or not the team is trending up or down.

Quote from: IrishDawg on October 17, 2018, 07:37:53 AM

Quote from: 4throwfan on October 16, 2018, 11:22:11 PM
1314, that's the point - the team was previously better than it is now.  Ideally, the team proves that thought wrong, but if they don't, then as VU72 suggests, one has to question whether the team is trending up or down.

They are clearly trending up this year just based on what they have coming back, and I think long-term they're on an upward trend as well, but it just depends on what they continue to get on the recruiting trail and transfer market.  Getting NBAish talent shouldn't be the standard to measure whether or not the team is trending up or down.

Agreed. I think most of our Valley teams in the future will overall be more talented teams than our Horizon League teams. We might not land another Broekhoff or AP caliber player for a while but the talent surrounding them will probably be higher in the Valley, which is saying something because a few of those teams (ex: 15-16) were very talented. No matter, what we're in a better spot in the Valley then we were in the HL. We're just in a transition period right now.

2014, obviously I hope that everything you said is correct.  However, I do have a couple of thoughts.  First, they're not trending in any direction yet this year.  They haven't played any games yet.  Second, the beauty of college basketball is that every year is a transition period for every team. 

Quote from: vu72 on October 16, 2018, 09:28:51 AM
If we finish 7-10, not withstanding significant injuries, it will be not only a disappointment but a reason to examine the overall direction of the program.  Our team has 10 juniors (two of which can just practice) but of those, five of them are seniors, age wise.  No longer can we blame youth.  The next two seasons are critical as to whether or not we can recruit players able to compete in The Valley and also whether or not our coaches can properly manage those skills.

No disagreement here, our relevance in their minds wane with the years since consistent success (ask Evansville for a time).  Recruits want relevancy and the one saving grace is that we are in the MVC which should give us access to more recruits that are willing to take the phone call/visit.  I am starting to come around to small fish in a bigger pond (MVC).

But make no mistake, we have to work harder and smarter in order to have anywhere near the same level of success now gents!

Quote from: VU2014 on October 17, 2018, 08:32:20 AM

Quote from: IrishDawg on October 17, 2018, 07:37:53 AM

Quote from: 4throwfan on October 16, 2018, 11:22:11 PM
1314, that's the point - the team was previously better than it is now.  Ideally, the team proves that thought wrong, but if they don't, then as VU72 suggests, one has to question whether the team is trending up or down.

They are clearly trending up this year just based on what they have coming back, and I think long-term they're on an upward trend as well, but it just depends on what they continue to get on the recruiting trail and transfer market.  Getting NBAish talent shouldn't be the standard to measure whether or not the team is trending up or down.

Agreed. I think most of our Valley teams in the future will overall be more talented teams than our Horizon League teams. We might not land another Broekhoff or AP caliber player for a while but the talent surrounding them will probably be higher in the Valley, which is saying something because a few of those teams (ex: 15-16) were very talented. No matter, what we're in a better spot in the Valley then we were in the HL. We're just in a transition period right now.

Seconded. I personally think that one of the greatest benefits of moving up to the MVC is that if we are on the wrong course it will be much easier to spot and correct. There is no cakewalk stretch to hide behind in this league and rack up easy wins and the job by virtue of conference affiliation alone is more attractive than it otherwise would be.

Pretty much the way I expected the media to vote. The four Illinois schools in the top 4. And UNI, Indiana St, and Valpo: 5-7. Uni was going to get the nod at 5 because of jacobson

It looks like Mileek has dropped about 15 pounds and he's moving around the court so much quicker and more comfortably. He's showing great quickness is small areas, allowing him to make quick moves in the post for easy buckets. Defensively he's really excelling, playing a lot at the 5. His outside shot has also taken a step forward. He's been a high motor high energy guy in the practices I've witnessed. He will have a much greater impact on this season.

Quote from: chef on October 18, 2018, 02:35:38 PM
It looks like Mileek has dropped about 15 pounds and he's moving around the court so much quicker and more comfortably. He's showing great quickness is small areas, allowing him to make quick moves in the post for easy buckets. Defensively he's really excelling, playing a lot at the 5. His outside shot has also taken a step forward. He's been a high motor high energy guy in the practices I've witnessed. He will have a much greater impact on this season.

Chef, I heard that Deion is expected to be a starter.  Do you have a guess as to the starting five?

Quote from: chef on October 18, 2018, 02:35:38 PM
It looks like Mileek has dropped about 15 pounds and he's moving around the court so much quicker and more comfortably. He's showing great quickness is small areas, allowing him to make quick moves in the post for easy buckets. Defensively he's really excelling, playing a lot at the 5. His outside shot has also taken a step forward. He's been a high motor high energy guy in the practices I've witnessed. He will have a much greater impact on this season.

Surprising ... a very reliable source said Mileek would only be playing the 4 spot.

Quote from: EddieCabot on October 18, 2018, 02:51:40 PM

Quote from: chef on October 18, 2018, 02:35:38 PM
It looks like Mileek has dropped about 15 pounds and he's moving around the court so much quicker and more comfortably. He's showing great quickness is small areas, allowing him to make quick moves in the post for easy buckets. Defensively he's really excelling, playing a lot at the 5. His outside shot has also taken a step forward. He's been a high motor high energy guy in the practices I've witnessed. He will have a much greater impact on this season.

Surprising ... a very reliable source said Mileek would only be playing the 4 spot.

Maybe Coach is planning on running out a "small ball" lineup this season. Remember when we had to go small to play catch up when we were way down last season. (Ex: the near comeback at UNI at the end of the game) If Mileek could play a solid 5 it could be a difference maker. Our 7 footers really struggled against the quicker/more athletic big men in the Valley (ex: fayne).

This is very enlightening. Mark talks with all the coaches in the MVC and that includes the Valpo Coaches. Mark seems to be tempering expectations for Valpo this season. Maybe I'm reading into this too much but it sounds like he's expecting 8-10 range. Those results won't make some happy on this board.

Loyola's results from year 2 in the Valley; 6th place. Record: 19-13 (Conference: 8-10). They won the CBI this season.

It's important to remember that the 2014-15 Valley wasn't as strong as it's projected to be this season. They had a dominant team with Wichita State and another very good UNI squad, but the bottom half the league was pretty weak.

https://twitter.com/EnthusiAdams/status/1053001410147684353
https://twitter.com/EnthusiAdams/status/1053000435785699330

Quote from: EddieCabot on October 18, 2018, 02:51:40 PM

Honestly, your source is not correct on this subject. Sorolla, Smits and McMillan will all play minutes at the 5. I think Mileek could average about 10 minutes a game at the 4 and 10 minutes at the 5.
Bakari, Javon and Ryan are the most likely starters. Sorolla appears to have a leg up at the 5 and Deion could start at the 1, allowing Bakari to play off the ball more. Golder and Mileek would be first 2 off the bench. A lot could change but that appears to be where the rotation stands right now. Sackey will definite see significant minutes also.

Quote from: EddieCabot on October 18, 2018, 02:51:40 PMSurprising ... a very reliable source said Mileek would only be playing the 4 spot.

This is incorrect. Again, Mileek will definitely play some at the five.

Quote from: VU2014 on October 18, 2018, 04:02:25 PMMaybe Coach is planning on running out a "small ball" lineup this season.

If Mileek is that much improved then our depth and versatility will offer many new potential combinations and attacks.  :thumbsup:

I continue to be much more concerned about our November team than I am about the one who will be playing in February. No matter what this team looks like early we should be MVC top half late. In a year where we have zero at-large potential, that is really all that matters.

Quote from: chef on October 18, 2018, 07:35:20 PMDeion could start at the 1

If we start with the assumption that Bradford has improved then Deion starting might imply that we are stronger and deeper at point than we were in 17-18.  :thumbsup: At the 5 we should see significant improvement and versatility.  :thumbsup:  Comparing our talents at the 4 with what we finished with last year is like comparing D-3 with D-1 so  :clap: Fazekas joining a much improved Golder and Evelyn has got to also help with our play at the 3!   :cheers: That seems to leave the 2 as the only position where Tevonn's absence might step us sideways or backward.  :'(

Big Picture---4 out of 5 positions seeing improvement AIN'T BAD.

Quote from: chef on October 18, 2018, 07:35:20 PM

Quote from: EddieCabot on October 18, 2018, 02:51:40 PM

Honestly, your source is not correct on this subject. Sorolla, Smits and McMillan will all play minutes at the 5. I think Mileek could average about 10 minutes a game at the 4 and 10 minutes at the 5.
Bakari, Javon and Ryan are the most likely starters. Sorolla appears to have a leg up at the 5 and Deion could start at the 1, allowing Bakari to play off the ball more. Golder and Mileek would be first 2 off the bench. A lot could change but that appears to be where the rotation stands right now. Sackey will definite see significant minutes also.

I was wondering if they were going to keep Jay coming off the bench because he seemed to be more comfortable in that role for some reason. If Deion is starting and Sackey sees a significant role that could lead to Micah seeing a very reduced role this season. When he's out there he's going to need to be productive to earn a sizable role. either way we might have real depth this season if everyone actually plays up to their abilities this season. Remember how the "narrative" at the start of last season was that we were a deep team. That fell flat by the seasons end.

Chef, do you think this team has a shot to be a Top 5 team in the MVC this season?

Quote from: justducky on October 18, 2018, 08:02:44 PMIn a year where we have zero at-large potential, that is really all that matters.

I'm not ready to conclude that before the team has even played a game.  As Coach Lottich has said, they have a non-conference schedule built for an at-large bid.  Not projecting an at-large, but I'll at least wait to see how they fare against WKU, WVU (possibly twice) and Texas A&M before I write off all chances.

Come on out to the Hammond Civic Center tomorrow (Saturday) ... free practice for Men and Women...beer available for sale... meet and greet with the team and coaches... starts at 2pm... outta there by 4pm.

There will be co-ed scrimmages and practice drills...

Quote from: talksalot on October 19, 2018, 12:13:42 PM
Come on out to the Hammond Civic Center tomorrow (Saturday) ... free practice for Men and Women...beer available for sale... meet and greet with the team and coaches... starts at 2pm... outta there by 4pm.

There will be co-ed scrimmages and practice drills...

I'll be there with a few buddies, should be good times.  Unlike the home schedule, it's actually on a Saturday!!!!

The registration list is growing...   

https://alumni.valpo.edu/s/1347/17/page-1col.aspx?sid=1347&gid=1&sitebuilder=1&pgid=2477&crid=0&calpgid=2012&calcid=4877

Kenpom Preseason MVC Rankings:

https://twitter.com/Valpo_Hoops/status/1053686759161323521

Quote from: chef on October 18, 2018, 07:37:23 PM

Quote from: EddieCabot on October 18, 2018, 02:51:40 PMSurprising ... a very reliable source said Mileek would only be playing the 4 spot.

This is incorrect. Again, Mileek will definitely play some at the five.

So.....Mileek is going to take minutes from the two 7 footers. Is this related to Jay's injury?  Might Jay be a medical redshirt this year thereby giving him a chance to be the main 5 after Smits leaves?  If not then which of the 7 footers is likely to transfer next year if their pt is cut?  Won't Smits be a graduate transfer possibility next year?  I suppose I can see some situations where we might need to go small, but if Mileek is going to play regular minutes at the 5 that says a lot about the ability of the two 7 footers to contribute to the team's chances to rise in the MVC standings.

Quote from: nkvu on October 20, 2018, 10:42:13 PM

Quote from: chef on October 18, 2018, 07:37:23 PM

Quote from: EddieCabot on October 18, 2018, 02:51:40 PMSurprising ... a very reliable source said Mileek would only be playing the 4 spot.

This is incorrect. Again, Mileek will definitely play some at the five.

So.....Mileek is going to take minutes from the two 7 footers. Is this related to Jay's injury?  Might Jay be a medical redshirt this year thereby giving him a chance to be the main 5 after Smits leaves?  If not then which of the 7 footers is likely to transfer next year if their pt is cut?  Won't Smits be a graduate transfer possibility next year?  I suppose I can see some situations where we might need to go small, but if Mileek is going to play regular minutes at the 5 that says a lot about the ability of the two 7 footers to contribute to the team's chances to rise in the MVC standings.

I don't think Mileek will ever be able to be relied upon as full-time 5 but he may be able to play the 5 with certain matchups and in certain situations. example: Jubril was sometimes relied upon to go up against bigger opposing players and held his own on defense. Mileek is more athletic and has more potential versatility.

As for if Smits will be a grad-transfer I have no clue. If he graduates this year and is just solid, I'm sure other coaches will be calling via back channels to gauge his interest. 7 foot grad transfers are a rare commodity. Hopefully he stays all 4 years. experience and team chemistry is extremely valuable. I think Smits could be in for a pretty good offensive season (not sure about defense or rebounding though). It's really unfortunate timing for the Sorolla injury. Hopefully we'll get a injury update before the season starts. We'll need his defensive presence this season.

Quote from: VU2014 on October 21, 2018, 01:17:41 AM
I don't think Mileek will ever be able to be relied upon as full-time 5 but he may be able to play the 5 with certain matchups and in certain situations. example: Jubril was sometimes relied upon to go up against bigger opposing players and held his own on defense. Mileek is more athletic and has more potential versatility.

KVW was 6-8 and 230 lbs. and almost never outmatched on either end:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6R6zEFy_v_c

Quote from: wh on October 21, 2018, 06:27:26 AM

Quote from: VU2014 on October 21, 2018, 01:17:41 AM
I don't think Mileek will ever be able to be relied upon as full-time 5 but he may be able to play the 5 with certain matchups and in certain situations. example: Jubril was sometimes relied upon to go up against bigger opposing players and held his own on defense. Mileek is more athletic and has more potential versatility.

KVW was 6-8 and 230 lbs. and almost never outmatched on either end

He wasn't overmatched on the offensive end of the floor for sure, but defensively he was just slightly above average for a college big.  Mileek's a different kind of player than both he and Vashil (who was an incredibly dominant defensive player, but not quite average offensively), but your point isn't wrong.  You don't need to be huge to be able to defend the paint against most college 5's because there are so few dominant big men any more.  Mileek being able to stretch the floor should help space things offensively as well.

Quote from: VU2014 on October 20, 2018, 11:40:29 AM
Kenpom Preseason MVC Rankings:

https://twitter.com/Valpo_Hoops/status/1053686759161323521

I don't know much about Pomeroy's formula, especially his preseason rankings.  Does he include freshmen?  Transfers?  How does his "formula" factor in off season improvement in guys like McMillen?  To me, Valpo looks low.  Even more startling is Loyola at 67 after making the Final Four just a few months ago.

Looking at the rest of his rankings, it's clear his formula is skewed towards teams in the Power 5 (plus AAC and BE).  Only a handful of teams outside that group are ranked in the top 70 ... seems like a very biased system to me.

Quote from: EddieCabot on October 21, 2018, 02:49:22 PM

Quote from: VU2014 on October 20, 2018, 11:40:29 AM
Kenpom Preseason MVC Rankings:

https://twitter.com/Valpo_Hoops/status/1053686759161323521

I don't know much about Pomeroy's formula, especially his preseason rankings.  Does he include freshmen?  Transfers?  How does his "formula" factor in off season improvement in guys like McMillen?  To me, Valpo looks low.  Even more startling is Loyola at 67 after making the Final Four just a few months ago.

Looking at the rest of his rankings, it's clear his formula is skewed towards teams in the Power 5 (plus AAC and BE).  Only a handful of teams outside that group are ranked in the top 70 ... seems like a very biased system to me.

I don't think his preseason rankings are any more accurate than any other rating system (last year Valpo was ranked 131st in preseason and wound up 150th), but here's the gist of how he comes up with it:

The biggest factors to how a team performs in a given year were how it performed offensively and defensively the previous year.  Valpo was 210th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 101st in adjusted defensive efficiency last season.  He then factors in the minutes each team has coming back, with freshman minutes being more valuable than sophomores, which are more valuable than returning junior minutes.  This essentially says that freshman will more likely make a bigger jump in efficiency than their older counterparts, who was basically know what they are.  Since most of the minutes that Valpo has returning were sophomore minutes (Mileek is the only freshman returning, and didn't play a ton of minutes last year), the jump in efficiency is expected, but obviously with two of their best ballhandlers in Walker and Joseph being gone, the remaining team's high turnover rate didn't help facilitate a big jump. 

Lastly, his ratings look at transfers and freshmen.  Basically, if you're outside of the top 30 freshmen, his ratings system doesn't really recognize it, and given that the top 30 guys go to P5 teams, yeah, it's going to be biased in that sense.  In terms of transfers, it factors them into the lineup in a similar manner that it would a returning player.  In Fazekas' case, he was playing basically the same number of minutes that Mileek did last season at Providence as a sophomore, so his minutes are going to be less valued than even Mileek's in terms of adding to the team's efficiency.  Meanwhile, where do most of the super productive transfers wind up at?  Power programs.

So yes, when you look at things on paper, it's always going to skew things towards the power conferences.  They generally get better players, more productive transfers, etc. than the mid-majors.  The difference is though as the season goes on, these preseason ratings become less and less of a factor until really once conference season hits they're basically non-existent.

In Loyola's case (which I agree with), the fact they made a F4 run last year doesn't mean anything for the following year's preseason rating.  They lost 3 guys that played a major role for them on last year's team, which really only had one major upset in the tournament (Tennessee) if you look at each team's ratings heading into their tournament games.  Their returning minutes, with the exception of Krutwig and Williamson are going to be Seniors this year, so on average those guys aren't going to make major jumps from their Junior campaigns, and they didn't bring in any highly rated freshmen.  So while you can disagree with where they're rated preseason, the formula doesn't change.  My guess is they'll be better too, but certainly I wouldn't put them as high as last year's team which finished #31 in the ratings.