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Valpo Sports => Valpo Basketball => Topic started by: Just Sayin on November 13, 2019, 04:45:05 PM

Title: Pomeroy Trends Valpo (In&Out of Conference) & Conference for the Season
Post by: Just Sayin on November 13, 2019, 04:45:05 PM
The latest date represents cumulative totals since season began. 

          OVERALL RANK    ADJ OFF EFF   ADJ DEF EFF
11/13/19              198                96.3                   99.0
11/14/19              197                96.6                   99.3
11/18/19              190                96.7                   98.8
11/23/19              177                98.1                   99.5
11/24/19              205                97.0                  100.0
11/25/19           191                97.8                    99.9
Title: Re: Pomeroy Trends Valpo
Post by: FieldGoodie05 on November 25, 2019, 02:36:27 PM
Quote from: wh on November 25, 2019, 02:23:33 PM
THE FIRST 8-MINUTE SAGA

For the last 4 games (SIUE, N. Dakota, GCU, Nevada):

% of Total Shots Taken from 3
57% 1st 8 minutes
32% Final 32 minutes

3-Pt Shooting Pct.
- 1st 8 Minutes 20%
- Final 32 Minutes 40%

Score Differential
- 1st 8 Minutes - Outscored by all 4 opponents by 25 points collectively (6 pts/game)
- Final 32 Minutes - Outscored opponents by 31 points collectively (+46 for 3 W's; -15 for 1 loss)

Take Away: Stop jacking up so many 3's in the first 8 minutes (especially early in the shot clock).


Thanks for sharing WH, that is quite eye popping.  Do we think that 6 games is a good sample size as to demonstrate our inability to hit from deep?  If so, I'd have to agree whole heartedly.  What can we do instead since the opponents are clearly sagging on us so as to allow fairly open shots.  What is the alternative knowing our strengths and weaknesses?  hahah Maybe we turn it over and then quickly steal for a fast break!!!! :) :) :)
Title: Re: Pomeroy Trends Valpo
Post by: Just Sayin on November 25, 2019, 03:12:52 PM
Valpo   
             
                OVERALL RANK    ADJ OFF EFF   ADJ DEF EFF
11/13/19              198                96.3                   99.0
11/14/19              197                96.6                   99.3
11/18/19              190                96.7                   98.8
11/23/19              177                98.1                   99.5
11/24/19              205                97.0                  100.0
11/25/19           191                97.8                    99.9





Conference  Rank      AdjOE      AdjDE   
11/25/19

N. Iowa         100         100.8         94.7
Loyola           118          98.9          95.1
Bradley         142          99.3          97.8
Drake           137           98.7         97.0
Ind. St.        140         103.4        101.8
Mizz St.        147          99.1          98.1
Evansville     179          98.6         100.2
ILL St.          204          98.7         101.4
Valpo           191          97.8          99.9
S. ILL           237          94.4         100.3

Early Trends after Nevada game and before Cincy game:

Conference Teams:
Valpo is 9th in overall rank
Valpo is 9th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency
Valpo is 8th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency

Yes, it's early but the numbers calculated are the same for all 353 teams and then ranked accordingly.

Defense has been a concern for this team from jumpstreet. You can't win games with a mediocre defense.

Looking at all 353 teams AT THIS TIME,  Valpo will lose to an average team by 3.01 points, relative to all other Divison 1 teams.

This is NOT good news.

Cincy is favored by 14 points.

One positive is Valpo's offensive rebounding.

Another factor to consider this early within the conference rankings only is that our conference top teams have played an easier schedule than Valpo, all OOC games. Their OOC SOSs are weaker than Valpo's.
Title: Re: Pomeroy Trends Valpo
Post by: Just Sayin on November 26, 2019, 04:20:40 PM
SOS and W-L Record, As of 11/25/19, MVC

Ranked Toughest to easiest schedule:

  37  Indiana St.    2-4
108  Illinois St.      2-4
142  Valpo             4-3
181  Evansville       4-3
186  So. Illinois      2-4
207  Missouri St.    3-4
256  Drake             5-2
266  Bradley          4-2
294  Loyola            3-4
316  N. Iowa          6-0
Title: Re: Pomeroy Trends Valpo & Conference
Post by: FWalum on November 27, 2019, 08:00:52 AM
Quote from: Just Sayin on November 26, 2019, 04:20:40 PM
SOS and W-L Record, As of 11/25/19, MVC

Ranked Toughest to easiest schedule:

  37  Indiana St.    2-4
108  Illinois St.      2-4
142  Valpo             4-3
181  Evansville       4-3
186  So. Illinois      2-4
207  Missouri St.    3-4
256  Drake             5-2
266  Bradley          4-2
294  Loyola            3-4
316  N. Iowa          6-0
That doesn't look so bad.  :)
Title: Re: Pomeroy Trends Valpo & Conference
Post by: Just Sayin on November 27, 2019, 10:58:05 AM

Quote from: FWalum on November 27, 2019, 08:00:52 AM
Quote from: Just Sayin on November 26, 2019, 04:20:40 PMSOS and W-L Record, As of 11/25/19, MVC Ranked Toughest to easiest schedule: 37  Indiana St.    2-4 108  Illinois St.      2-4 142  Valpo             4-3 181  Evansville       4-3 186  So. Illinois      2-4 207  Missouri St.    3-4 256  Drake             5-2 266  Bradley          4-2 294  Loyola            3-4 316  N. Iowa          6-0
That doesn't look so bad.  :)


No it doesn't.
Title: Re: Pomeroy Trends Valpo & Conference
Post by: Just Sayin on December 04, 2019, 09:35:06 AM
Valpo   
             
               OVERALL RANK    ADJ OFF EFF   ADJ DEF EFF
11/13/19              198                96.3                   99.0
11/14/19              197                96.6                   99.3
11/18/19              190                96.7                   98.8
11/23/19              177                98.1                   99.5
11/24/19              205                97.0                  100.0
11/25/19              191                97.8                    99.9
12/3/19             197                99.5                  101.7





Conference   Rank      AdjOE      AdjDE   
12/03/19

N. Iowa            96         101.8         94.8
Loyola            110         100.0         95.0
Bradley          128           99.3         97.0
Ind. St.          131         104.2        101.9
Drake            135           96.9          94.8
Mizz St.         152           99.4          98.9
Evansville      176           98.9         100.5
Valpo            197           99.5         101.7
Ill. St.           200          100.1        102.4
S. ILL            225           95.6        100.6

Takeaway:

In conference, this team is in 8th place (by a hair) when it comes to defensive efficiency. Offensive efficiency isn't all that bad being in 5th place. If the team can improve significantly on defense and more on offense, they can be competitive in the conference. If not, well, it looks like they will have a losing season, both overall and in conference.

Assuming that there is upside to this "new" team, things don't look all that bad. But c'mon, we have to play better defense, PERIOD!
Title: Re: Pomeroy Trends Valpo & Conference
Post by: Just Sayin on December 05, 2019, 06:42:57 AM
Just for a point of reference, this is the preseason poll taken for this season:

MVC Preseason Poll School (First-Place Votes)Total
1. Missouri State                     (29) .............410
2. Bradley                                (5) .............368
3. UNI                                     (3) ..............343
4. Loyola Chicago                     (6) ...............340
5. Drake                                       ...............243
6. Indiana State                            ...............210
7. Illinois State                         (1) ..............193
8. Evansville                                  ..............132
9. Valparaiso                                  ...............98
10. Southern Illinois                        ...............83
Poll determined by panel of league sports information directors, media, and coaches.
Title: Re: Pomeroy Trends Valpo & Conference
Post by: Just Sayin on December 09, 2019, 07:56:04 AM
Valpo   
             
               OVERALL RANK    ADJ OFF EFF   ADJ DEF EFF
11/13/19              198                96.3                   99.0
11/14/19              197                96.6                   99.3
11/18/19              190                96.7                   98.8
11/23/19              177                98.1                   99.5
11/24/19              205                97.0                  100.0
11/25/19              191                97.8                    99.9
12/3/19                197                99.5                  101.7
12/8/19             166               99.7                   100.3



Conference     Rank       AdjOE        AdjDE  
12/08/19

N. Iowa            99          102.2         95.4
Loyola            110          100.7         95.5
In. St.            119          105.2        101.4
Bradley          121          100.8          97.6
Drake            143            97.3          95.8
Mo. St.          154            99.8          99.3
Valpo             166           99.7          100.3
Evansville       182         101.4          102.8
IL. St.            195           99.7          101.6
So. ILL          218            97.9          102.0

Defending Shots: Valpo

                                       Eff.         
                                       FG% (Rank)     3Pt %(Rank)      2Pt%
(Rank)

Before CMU Game             57.2(320's)      38.5(320's)        57.0(320's)           
After CMU Game               54.5(309)         35.2(250)          55.4(318)

Takeaway:

Boy what difference one game can make!
Defense decided to show up.
If they can maintain this level of defensive intensity throughout the season, it's anybody's guess where they will end up in conference but I'm guessing near the top.

A big "IF"

I heard Luke pregame say that they were working hard on defense in practice.

Division 1 Average, Defending Shots:

                                CMU Game: Valpo
Eff. FG%  49.2                                                       
3Pt%       33.0                 5.9 (1-17)
2Pt%       49.0               44.4 (20-45)                   
           
Title: Re: Pomeroy Trends Valpo & Conference
Post by: wh on December 09, 2019, 08:45:15 AM
N. Iowa            99         
Loyola            110          Same record as Valpo - 56 places higher
In. St.            119          Worse record than Valpo - 47 places higher
Bradley          121         
Drake            143           
Mo. St.          154          Worse record than Valpo - 12 places higher 
Valpo             166           
Evansville       182         
IL. St.            195           
So. ILL          218           

Scheduling is hard.
Luke Gore

Title: Re: Pomeroy Trends Valpo & Conference
Post by: vusupporter on December 09, 2019, 08:49:10 AM
Our KenPom non-conference strength of schedule is currently 147.
Title: Re: Pomeroy Trends Valpo & Conference
Post by: SanityLost17 on December 09, 2019, 08:55:58 AM
1.   We are not as good of a defensive team as the CMU game indicates.   They were cold even when they were open, so some of that was luck.   
2.  We are not as bad of a defensive team as we showed in all games prior to the CMU game.   We have run into some bad luck on teams hitting some tough shots.  Not all shots I grant you, but a few times I was watching and I said out loud to myself, "man, another game where the other team is hitting a decent percentage of tough shots, while burying almost all their open ones."   

We are somewhere in-between.   I will say we had a lot of time to prep for CMU and it showed.   I think Lottich can coach D and in conference when there is a lot of game film on our opponents I think he will have us ready more nights than not.  That said, we still have lots of guys who are a step slow in their lateral movement, aka defensive slide.  So no matter what the prep work I think that will continue to be a problem.   Krikke does a lot of things right on defense, but his lateral movement is pedestrian.  Same goes for McMillan.  Robinson/Gordon/Kiser also have some issues against guys with a quick 1st step. 

Title: Re: Pomeroy Trends Valpo & Conference
Post by: Just Sayin on December 09, 2019, 08:58:05 AM
wh, Keep in mind that the pomeroy rankings are not based on W-L records but on the net OE - DE, all relative to every division 1 team. 
Title: Re: Pomeroy Trends Valpo & Conference
Post by: crusader05 on December 09, 2019, 09:54:47 AM
CMU definitely was having an off night but that in the end probably just means we beat them by 10 instead of 20. 

Sackey and Zion are both in a bit of slump now and we lost Fazekas but if even one of those gets turned around and barring no other injuries we are going to be pretty tough come conference season even if our front court is occasionally a little slow on the uptake.

I think Loyola remains a tough match up for us but after last night's game I feel much better about both Charlotte and Arkansas.
Title: Re: Pomeroy Trends Valpo & Conference
Post by: valpo64 on December 09, 2019, 11:07:04 AM
If Sackey has a good shooting night it is an exception to the rule...as for defense we played extremely well yesterday and it was fun to watch.  However lets face it, Kiser will never be a defensive force, except perhaps in a zone defensive setup.
While he takes a charge now and then  it is often from dropping off on someone else's man to cover.  He is very slow and usually gets beat on the first step nearly every time on the defensive end.  However I do love his effort and attitude.  Being a good "glue guy" only goes so far.  While this team will have its weaker moments now and then,  it is  fun to watch this new group grow and jell.  Much of the credit should go to Coach L as he continues to mold this team into a very competitive force in the MVC.
Title: Re: Pomeroy Trends Valpo & Conference
Post by: Just Sayin on December 09, 2019, 12:50:03 PM
Quote from: valpo64 on December 09, 2019, 11:07:04 AMIf Sackey has a good shooting night it is an exception to the rule...as for defense we played extremely well yesterday and it was fun to watch.


Sackey's shooting numbers:


2018-2019 Season:


2Pt% 39.3    3Pt%  23.7


2019-2020 To Date:

2Pt%  43.2    3Pt%  25.0


Career at Valpo To Date:



2Pt%   40.6    3Pt%   24.1


At this time in his career, he should NEVER be the go-to guy during crunch time in a close game. But that doesn't mean he shouldn't be on the floor.


This year to date, Sackey is 5th place in conference in Steal%(Javon 2nd place)
and Sackey is in 7th place in Assist Rate in conference(Javon 11th)



Title: Re: Pomeroy Trends Valpo & Conference
Post by: Just Sayin on December 12, 2019, 12:30:00 PM
I'm starting to track Pomeroy's W-L record. The first few games of this season are eye-opening. Remember, his ratings on the first day of the season determine which team wins and which team loses. Here are the first few games of this season and the W-L% based upon his pre-game predictions:
               
              Number of D1 Games       Pom's Picks
Date                   Played              Wins   Losses       Win%
   
11/5/19                 88                    71        17        80.68
11/6/19                 26                    21         5         80.77
11/7/19                   8                      7         1         87.50
11/8/19                 47                    36        11         79.88   

Still working on rest. Pretty good numbers for pre-season rankings. I've read that even the odds (that's a pun son) makers incorporate Pom's ratings in their calculations.   
Title: Re: Pomeroy Trends Valpo & Conference
Post by: Just Sayin on December 17, 2019, 03:47:12 PM
Valpo   
             
               OVERALL RANK    ADJ OFF EFF   ADJ DEF EFF
11/13/19              198                96.3                   99.0
11/14/19              197                96.6                   99.3
11/18/19              190                96.7                   98.8
11/23/19              177                98.1                   99.5
11/24/19              205                97.0                  100.0
11/25/19              191                97.8                    99.9
12/3/19                197                99.5                  101.7
12/8/19                166                99.7                  100.3
12/16/19           182                99.0                  100.4


Conference    Rank       AdjOE        AdjDE  
12/16/19

N. Iowa           76            105.6         95.4
Loyola            109           100.0         94.7
Bradley          113           101.5         96.4
In. St.            117           105.2        101.1
Mo. St.           140            99.4          97.7
Drake             156            96.2          95.6
Valpo              182            99.0         100.4
IL. St.             203            99.6         102.2             
Evansville        208            99.7         102.6
So. ILL            215            97.6         101.8         

Defending Shots: Valpo

                                             Eff.         
                                       FG% (Rank)     3Pt %(Rank)      2Pt%
(Rank)

Before CMU Game             57.2(320's)      38.5(320's)        57.0(320's)           
After CMU Game               54.5(309)         35.2(250)          55.4(318)
12/16/19                          54.5(311)         35.6(272)          55.0(317)


Division 1 Average,
Defending Shots:


                                Charlotte Game: Valpo
Eff. FG%  49.2                                                       
3Pt%       33.1                 34.8 (8-23)
2Pt%       49.0                 53.3(16-30)               

Takeaway:

Looks like the CMU game was an aberration.   
           
Title: Re: Pomeroy Trends Valpo & Conference
Post by: Just Sayin on December 19, 2019, 12:32:39 PM
               OVERALL RANK    ADJ OFF EFF   ADJ DEF EFF
11/13/19              198                96.3                   99.0
11/14/19              197                96.6                   99.3
11/18/19              190                96.7                   98.8
11/23/19              177                98.1                   99.5
11/24/19              205                97.0                  100.0
11/25/19              191                97.8                    99.9
12/3/19                197                99.5                  101.7
12/8/19                166                99.7                  100.3
12/16/19              182                99.0                  100.4
12/18/19           176               100.7                  101.5


Conference    Rank       AdjOE        AdjDE  
12/18/19

N. Iowa             76          105.9         95.7
Loyola             105          100.9         94.9
Bradley           114          101.8          96.6
In. St.             121          105.4        101.4
Mo. St.            140            99.6          98.0
Drake              155            96.5          95.8
Valpo               176          100.7        101.5
IL. St.              205            99.3        102.3             
Evansville         207          100.1        103.1
So. ILL             209            98.3        101.4         

Defending Shots: Valpo

                                             Eff.         
                                       FG% (Rank)     3Pt %(Rank)      2Pt%
(Rank)

Before CMU Game             57.2(320's)      38.5(320's)        57.0(320's)           
After CMU Game               54.5(309)         35.2(250)          55.4(318)
12/16/19                          54.5(311)        35.6(272)           55.0(317)
12/18/19                          54.7(318)        36.1(282)           55.0(317)


Division 1 Average,
Defending Shots:


                                High Point Shooting % - Valpo defending shots
Eff. FG%  49.3                                                       
3Pt%       33.1                            3Pt%             40.0(8-20)
2Pt%       49.1                            2Pt%             55.0(22-40)               

Takeaway:

Defensive efficiency on downward trend. We let a weaker team shoot way above Division 1 average. Where's the consistency? Was the CMU game reflective of an awesome defensive effort or did CMU just have a horrible shooting night? Maybe a little of both. But why isn't the team improving defensively? Not a good sign.
Sorry guys but the defensive effort and intensity you showed at CMU must be replicated every single game. No slacking. Right coach?
EDIT:
High Point's Average Shooting %:
2-Pt%: 41.3(339) ..........................................Valpo defense let them shoot 55% 
3-Pt%: 30.7(252) ............................................Valpo defense let them shoot 40%
Title: Re: Pomeroy Trends Valpo & Conference
Post by: Just Sayin on December 31, 2019, 12:06:32 PM
Valpo   
     
                OVERALL RANK ADJ OFF EFF   ADJ DEF EFF (Lower number better)
11/13/19              198                96.3                   99.0
11/14/19              197                96.6                   99.3
11/18/19              190                96.7                   98.8
11/23/19              177                98.1                   99.5
11/24/19              205                97.0                  100.0
11/25/19              191                97.8                    99.9
12/3/19                197                99.5                  101.7
12/8/19                166                99.7                  100.3
12/16/19              182                99.0                  100.4
12/18/19              176              100.7                  101.5
12/21/19              163              100.6                  100.6
12/30/19           166              100.4                  100.7

Conference   

                     Rank       AdjOE        AdjDE  
12/30/19

N. Iowa             71          107.1         96.2
Loyola             105          100.3         94.5
In. St              117          104.7        100.8
Bradley            114         101.1          96.8
Drake              152           98.3          96.9
Mizz St.           149           99.9          98.4
Valpo              166          100.4        100.7
So. IL              199           97.8        100.6             
Evansville        200         100.3         103.0
ILL. St.            221          98.6         102.9         

                                                       Defending Shots: Valpo
                                                       Opponent's Shooting %
                                            Eff.         
                                       FG%(Rank)   3Pt %(Rank)      2Pt%(Rank)


Before CMU Game             57.2(320's)      38.5(????)          57.0(320's)           
After CMU Game               54.5(309)         35.2(250)          55.4(318)
12/16/19                          54.5(311)        35.6(272)           55.0(317)
12/18/19                          54.7(318)        36.1(282)           55.0(317)
12/21/19                          54.4(308)        36.2(288)           54.4(307)
12/30/19                          53.9(302)        36.2(282)           53.8(292)



Division 1 Shooting
Average


                                Loyola Shooting % - Valpo defending shots
Eff. FG%  49.3                                  12/30/19 Game                                                        
3Pt%       33.1                            3Pt%            35.7(5-14)
2Pt%       49.1                            2Pt%            45.7(16-35)               

Loyola Average
Shooting % To Date:


2-Pt%: 56.6(7)   .........................................Valpo defense held them to 45.7% 
3-Pt%: 34.6(110) .........................................Valpo defense held them to 35.7%

Trivia: From the beginning of the seasaon through Jan 1, number of games played: 2524 games
Title: Re: Pomeroy Trends Valpo & Conference In&Out of Conference
Post by: Just Sayin on January 05, 2020, 11:38:53 AM
The latest date represents cumulative totals since the season began. D1 AdjOE & AdjDE  average = 100.00


Valpo for the Season
     
                OVERALL RANK ADJ OFF EFF   ADJ DEF EFF (Lower number better)
11/13/19              198                96.3                   99.0
11/14/19              197                96.6                   99.3
11/18/19              190                96.7                   98.8
11/23/19              177                98.1                   99.5
11/24/19              205                97.0                  100.0
11/25/19              191                97.8                    99.9
12/3/19                197                99.5                  101.7
12/8/19                166                99.7                  100.3
12/16/19              182                99.0                  100.4
12/18/19              176              100.7                  101.5
12/21/19              163              100.6                  100.6
12/30/19              166              100.4                  100.7
1/4/20                  165              101.1(155)          100.7(173)

Conference for the Season   

                     Rank           AdjOE            AdjDE  
1/4/20

N. Iowa             79          107.0(47)       97.2(120)
Loyola             106          100.1(170)      94.4(75)
In. St              117          105.6(66)       101.4(186)
Bradley           113         101.8(144)       97.0(114)
Drake              151            99.4(191)       98.0(131)
Mizz St.           138            99.3(193)       97.1(119)
Valpo              165          101.1(155)      100.7(173)
So. IL              195            97.0(236)        99.4(146)             
Evansville        202            99.4(189)      103.1(235)
ILL. St.            212            98.1(216)      102.2(211)         

                                                               Defending Shots: Valpo
                                                       Opponent's Shooting % - Season
                                            Eff.         
                                       FG%(Rank)   3Pt %(Rank)      2Pt%(Rank)


Before CMU Game             57.2(320's)      38.5(????)          57.0(320's)           
After CMU Game               54.5(309)         35.2(250)          55.4(318)
12/16/19                          54.5(311)        35.6(272)           55.0(317)
12/18/19                          54.7(318)        36.1(282)           55.0(317)
12/21/19                          54.4(308)        36.2(288)           54.4(307)
12/30/19                          53.9(302)        36.2(282)           53.8(292)
1/4/20                              54.0(310)        36.2(279)           53.8(300)



Division 1 Shooting
Average - Season


                                Evansville Shooting % - Valpo defending shots
Eff. FG%  49.3                                  1/4/20 Game                                                        
3Pt%       33.2                            3Pt%            36.0(9-25)
2Pt%       49.1                            2Pt%            56.7(17-30)               

Evansville Season Average
Shooting %:


2-Pt%: 52.3(76) .........................................Valpo defense held them to 56.7% 
3-Pt%: 34.1(130) .........................................Valpo defense held them to 36.0%

Trivia: From the beginning of the seasaon through Jan 4, number of games played: 2745 games

Takeaways:

Offensive Efficiency is getting better with time. On 11/13 it was 96.3. Today it's 101.5(155). In conference for the season, Valpo is fourth best in AdjOE, while seventh best in AdjDE.

Defensive Efficiency is getting worse. On 11/13 it was 99.0. Today it is 100.7(173). We let Evansville shoot above their average both in 2% and 3%. Even so for the season, the defending of shots has improved some from before the CMU game, but the overall cumulative numbers are still bad. In the high 200s and low 300s.

How good is this team? At this time, we have a slightly above-average offense and a slightly below average defense relative to all other 352 teams.
Title: Re: Pomeroy Trends Valpo (In&Out of Conference) & Conference
Post by: vu84v2 on January 05, 2020, 04:14:17 PM
It would be pretty hard to argue that there is a statistically significant difference in the defensive rating through the season.
Title: Re: Pomeroy Trends Valpo (In&Out of Conference) & Conference
Post by: Just Sayin on January 05, 2020, 04:38:30 PM
Quote from: vu84v2 on January 05, 2020, 04:14:17 PM
It would be pretty hard to argue that there is a statistically significant difference in the defensive rating through the season.

How would you calculate that?
Title: Re: Pomeroy Trends Valpo (In&Out of Conference) & Conference
Post by: Just Sayin on January 09, 2020, 04:46:10 PM
The latest date represents cumulative totals since the season began. D1 AdjOE & AdjDE  average = 100.00


Valpo for the Season
     
                OVERALL RANK ADJ OFF EFF   ADJ DEF EFF (Lower number better)
11/13/19              198                96.3                   99.0
11/14/19              197                96.6                   99.3
11/18/19              190                96.7                   98.8
11/23/19              177                98.1                   99.5
11/24/19              205                97.0                  100.0
11/25/19              191                97.8                    99.9
12/3/19                197                99.5                  101.7
12/8/19                166                99.7                  100.3
12/16/19              182                99.0                  100.4
12/18/19              176              100.7                  101.5
12/21/19              163              100.6                  100.6
12/30/19              166              100.4                  100.7
1/4/20                  165              101.1(155)          100.7(173)
1/8/20                  175              100.2(170)          100.9(179)

Conference for the Season   

                     Rank           AdjOE            AdjDE  
1/8/20

N. Iowa            76          107.5(46)        97.4(116)
Loyola             107          100.5(165)     94.9(83)
In. St              115          106.0(57)      101.5(189)
Bradley           102          102.1(138)       95.8(93)
Drake             146           100.0(176)      98.2(131)
Mizz St.          142             99.3(198)      97.(107)
Valpo              175           100.2(170)    100.9(179)
So. IL             182             96.9(243)      98.4(137)             
Evansville        223            98.6(210)     103.1(235)
ILL. St.            212            98.1(216)      103.5(239)         

                                                               Defending Shots: Valpo
                                                       Opponent's Shooting % - Season
                                            Eff.         
                                       FG%(Rank)   3Pt %(Rank)      2Pt%(Rank)


Before CMU Game             57.2(320's)      38.5(????)          57.0(320's)           
After CMU Game               54.5(309)         35.2(250)          55.4(318)
12/16/19                          54.5(311)        35.6(272)           55.0(317)
12/18/19                          54.7(318)        36.1(282)           55.0(317)
12/21/19                          54.4(308)        36.2(288)           54.4(307)
12/30/19                          53.9(302)        36.2(282)           53.8(292)
1/4/20                              54.0(310)        36.2(279)           53.8(300)
1/8/20                              54.2(316)        37.0(309)           53.6(291)



Division 1 Shooting
Average - Season


                                So. Illinois Shooting % - Valpo defending shots
Eff. FG%  49.3                                  1/7/20 Game                                                        
3Pt%       33.1                            3Pt%            50.0(8-16)
2Pt%       49.1                            2Pt%            48.3(14-29)               

So. Illinois Season Average
Shooting %:


2-Pt%: 51.7(87) .........................................Valpo defense held them to 48.3% 
3-Pt%: 34.3(118) .........................................Valpo defense held them to 50.0%


Takeaways:

Valpo defense held So. Illinois to below their shooting average in 2Pt% (Don't ask about 3Pt%).  Defensive efficiency is slightly below average though and going the wrong way. We are slightly improving our defense of the 2-pt shot. Offensive efficiency for the season down slightly.

To sum:
Valpo, for the season thus far is a slightly above average offensive team and a slightly below average defensive team relative to the other 352 teams.

That doesn't mean they are not fun to watch or that they can't make significant improvements as the season progresses. I'm cautiously optimistic that they can start to gel and become a very good consistent basketball team. They have a long way to go and are a work-in-progress.

Title: Re: Pomeroy Trends Valpo (In&Out of Conference) & Conference
Post by: Just Sayin on January 09, 2020, 05:22:16 PM
The latest date represents cumulative totals since the season began
                                                       
                                                       Rankings For The Season To Date
         Best Offensive Teams In&Out of Conference           Best Defensive Teams In&Out of Conference

1/8/20                 
                           
                            1. No.Iowa                                                                      1. Loyola
                            2. Indiana St.                                                                  2. Bradley
                            3. Bradley                                                                       3. Miz. St.
                            4. Loyola                                                                         4. No. Iowa
                            5. Valpo                                                                          5. Drake
                            6. Drake                                                                          6. So. Illinois
                            7. Miz. St.                                                                       7. Valpo
                            8. Evansville                                                                    8. Indiana St.
                            9. Illinois St.                                                                    9. Illinois St.
                          10. So. Illinois                                                                  10. Evansville

Takeaways:

Looking at season numbers, there are mismatches between OE and DE for all teams. It seems logical to me that the teams that are more evenly matched both offensively and defensively (Efficiency) will be the most balanced teams and therefore the ones toughest to beat. I don't know of any research done on this, (as it relates to KenPom's OE and DE) but it's just a hunch.

Thus, the teams to date to keep an eye on - in my view are:

1. No. Iowa: Offense 1; Defense 4
2. Bradley: Offense 3; Defense 2
3. Loyola: Offense 4; Defense 1
4. Drake: Offense 6; Defense 5
Runner up: Miz St.: Offense 7; Defense 3

Bradley seems to be the most balanced for teams in the top-tier of the conference. (Looks that way in-conference too)  If they remain that consistent, I would expect them to be either a 1 or 2 seed. But it's early and this is just a theory of mine.
Title: Re: Pomeroy Trends Valpo (In&Out of Conference) & Conference
Post by: bbtds on January 09, 2020, 11:29:45 PM
Quote from: Just Sayin on January 09, 2020, 08:19:42 PM
Oh crap.  The format above in prior post is screwed up on IPad view. Not that way on desktop.
I'll fix it later.

I was going to say, I have a question..............
Title: Re: Pomeroy Trends Valpo (In&Out of Conference) & Conference
Post by: Just Sayin on January 10, 2020, 08:42:35 AM

Quote from: bbtds on January 09, 2020, 11:29:45 PM
Quote from: Just Sayin on January 09, 2020, 08:19:42 PMOh crap.  The format above in prior post is screwed up on IPad view. Not that way on desktop. I'll fix it later.
I was going to say, I have a question..............


Should be fixed now. Do you still have a question?
Title: Re: Pomeroy Trends Valpo (In&Out of Conference) & Conference for the Season
Post by: Just Sayin on January 10, 2020, 12:50:15 PM
Bump for "takeaways" update, bottom of page 1.
Title: Re: Pomeroy Trends Valpo (In&Out of Conference) & Conference for the Season
Post by: bbtds on January 10, 2020, 04:48:24 PM
Quote from: Just Sayin on January 10, 2020, 08:42:35 AM

Quote from: bbtds on January 09, 2020, 11:29:45 PM
Quote from: Just Sayin on January 09, 2020, 08:19:42 PMOh crap.  The format above in prior post is screwed up on IPad view. Not that way on desktop. I'll fix it later.
I was going to say, I have a question..............


Should be fixed now. Do you still have a question?

Not anymore. I have a statement. Let's bring that Defense up to 5th or better!
Title: Re: Pomeroy Trends Valpo (In&Out of Conference) & Conference for the Season
Post by: Just Sayin on January 10, 2020, 05:13:36 PM

Quote from: bbtds on January 10, 2020, 04:48:24 PM
Quote from: Just Sayin on January 10, 2020, 08:42:35 AM
Quote from: bbtds on January 09, 2020, 11:29:45 PM
Quote from: Just Sayin on January 09, 2020, 08:19:42 PMOh crap.  The format above in prior post is screwed up on IPad view. Not that way on desktop. I'll fix it later.
I was going to say, I have a question..............
Should be fixed now. Do you still have a question?
Not anymore. I have a statement. Let's bring that Defense up to 5th or better!


There is still time to get there.
Title: Re: Pomeroy Trends Valpo (In&Out of Conference) & Conference for the Season
Post by: Just Sayin on January 12, 2020, 10:28:23 AM
The latest date represents cumulative totals since the season began. D1 AdjOE & AdjDE  average = 100.00


Valpo for the Season
     
                OVERALL RANK ADJ OFF EFF   ADJ DEF EFF (Lower number better)
11/13/19              198                96.3                   99.0
11/14/19              197                96.6                   99.3
11/18/19              190                96.7                   98.8
11/23/19              177                98.1                   99.5
11/24/19              205                97.0                  100.0
11/25/19              191                97.8                    99.9
12/3/19                197                99.5                  101.7
12/8/19                166                99.7                  100.3
12/16/19              182                99.0                  100.4
12/18/19              176              100.7                  101.5
12/21/19              163              100.6                  100.6
12/30/19              166              100.4                  100.7
1/4/20                  165              101.1(155)          100.7(173)
1/8/20                  175              100.2(170)          100.9(179)
1/11/20                169              100.4(177)          100.7(164)

Conference for the Season   

                     Rank           AdjOE            AdjDE  
1/11/20

N. Iowa            57          109.9(29)        97.5(112)
Loyola            103          101.4(160)      94.8(75)
In. St             115          105.6(71)      100.6(213)
Bradley            95          102.7(135)       95.5(86)
Drake             147           99.7(191)        97.8(116)
Mizz St.          166           99.0(201)        98.5(129)
Valpo             169         100.4(177)      100.7(164)
So. IL             192             96.6(255)      98.5(127)             
Evansville       249            98.1(225)     104.8(258)
ILL. St.           214            97.6(235)     102.1(194)         

                                                               Defending Shots: Valpo
                                                       Opponent's Shooting % - Season
                                            Eff.         
                                       FG%(Rank)   3Pt %(Rank)      2Pt%(Rank)


Before CMU Game             57.2(320's)      38.5(????)          57.0(320's)           
After CMU Game               54.5(309)         35.2(250)          55.4(318)
12/16/19                          54.5(311)        35.6(272)           55.0(317)
12/18/19                          54.7(318)        36.1(282)           55.0(317)
12/21/19                          54.4(308)        36.2(288)           54.4(307)
12/30/19                          53.9(302)        36.2(282)           53.8(292)
1/4/20                              54.0(310)        36.2(279)           53.8(300)
1/8/20                              54.2(316)        37.0(309)           53.6(291)
1/11/20                            54.0(315)        35.1(258)           54.6(322)



Division 1 Shooting
Average - Season


                                Drake Shooting % - Valpo defending shots
                                                        1/11/20 Game                                                        
3Pt%   33.1                                      3Pt%    10.0(2-20)
2Pt%   49.0                                      2Pt%    70.3(26-37)               

Drake Season Average
Shooting %:


3-Pt%: 35.5(77) ...........................................Valpo defense held them to 10.0%
2-Pt%: 51.7(84) .........................................Valpo defense held them to 70.3%



The latest date represents cumulative totals since the season began
                                                       
                Rankings For The Season To Date
Best Offensive Teams       Best Defensive Teams
In&Out of Conference      In&Out of Conference

1/11/20                 
                           
1. No.Iowa                          1. Loyola
2. Ind. St.                           2. Bradley
3. Bradley                           3. No. Iowa
4.Loyola                              4. Drake
5. Valpo                              5. So. Illinois
6. Drake                             6. Mizz. St.
7. Miz. St                            7. Ind. St.
8. Evansville                        8. Valpo
9. Illinois St.                        9. Illinois St.
10. So. Illinois                    10. Evansville