Men's Basketball to Visit Defending Champs on Wednesday
http://www.valpoathletics.com/mbasketball/news/2019-20/19654/mens-basketball-to-visit-defending-champs-on-wednesday/
What to watch for when Valparaiso plays at Bradley
https://www.pjstar.com/sports/20200128/what-to-watch-for-when-valparaiso-plays-at-bradley
Being realistic, Valpo needs to prove they can knock off a quality opponent on the road. I want to see this happen rather than hearing about overoptimistic hopes. It is time to win.
Quote from: usc4valpo on January 29, 2020, 06:42:39 AMIt is time to win.
With everybody back in uniform and rounding into playing condition we should soon know if we are actually a bonafide contender. Its time to start heating up so we can steam into the Valley tournament. Peoria just the first of ten stops on our way to St Louis. We need to iron out our remaining wrinkles.
Tough to even put forth that much energy and optimism when we're halfway through conference season and it still feels like pre-conference play.
Apart from the new MC, the game day environment is awful. What happened to the student survey and MLB talking about game day changes? Here's a thought - bring in a dj like a lot of schools do. Do something. The music they play in warmups is awful! They try to be eclectic but it's just bad. Anyone happy with the fan turnout thus far and the student turnout thus far has much lowered expectations.
We had a way better environment and following when in a worse conference. But people will say oh it's because of streaming. Well ya if you don't offer a game day environment that's worth getting off the couch in the dorm for then why would they walk across campus together go? For a slice of pizza? Give me a break.
And let's call it like it is. The MVC overall is down this year in talent. Other than UNi it seems wide open.
No excuses. We don't have a new coaching staff and really haven't faced much adversity. The whole one team one boat slogan sums it up. This is what we wanted. We didn't want those "selfish" players. Guess what? They're gone. And cannot continually blame it on young players. Other than Clay, who's a major contributing player that's young? Nick and Eron were around the program for an entire year and are upperclassmen. Mileek is an upperclassman. Kiser is a senior. Javon is a sophomore but the general on the court and rightfully so. Sackey played all last year. We're not that young and I experienced of a team. Just saying.
Quote from: GoldenCrusader87 on January 29, 2020, 07:17:46 AMAnd let's call it like it is. The MVC overall is down this year in talent. Other than UNi it seems wide open. No excuses. We don't have a new coaching staff and really haven't faced much adversity. The whole one team one boat slogan sums it up. This is what we wanted. We didn't want those "selfish" players. Guess what? They're gone. And cannot continually blame it on young players. Other than Clay, who's a major contributing player that's young? Nick and Eron were around the program for an entire year and are upperclassmen. Mileek is an upperclassman. Kiser is a senior. Javon is a sophomore but the general on the court and rightfully so. Sackey played all last year. We're not that young and I experienced of a team. Just saying.
MVC was ranked 15th last year. This year, thus far, 11th. It's better this year than last year.
UNI is really good. Valpo can be and should be at the same level, but my feeling is they are satisfied for where they are, just being a MVC member and going for the ride.
For this team, coach, and program it's Al Davis time: Just win, baby.
Quote from: usc4valpo on January 29, 2020, 06:42:39 AM
Being realistic, Valpo needs to prove they can knock off a quality opponent on the road. I want to see this happen rather than hearing about overoptimistic hopes. It is time to win.
This would be a big win. Valpo looking for its first back-to-back wins in over 2 months.
Quote from: GoldenCrusader87 on January 29, 2020, 07:17:46 AMWe're not that young and I experienced of a team.
I experienced was last year for sure, Inexperienced is not good excuse for this year. I would say jelled together as a team and that should be happening. I really hope against all my gut feeling that Ryan stays on the court and not the end of the bench in a warm up.
Haha it was a typo on my behalf but actually end up unintentionally interesting how you read that.
Valpo 72
Bradley 68
Quote from: GoldenCrusader87 on January 29, 2020, 03:20:18 PM
Haha it was a typo on my behalf but actually end up unintentionally interesting how you read that.
A good typo must never go to waste. :thumbsup:
Just don't understand how we can shoot so poorly, except Ryan.
Somebody forgot to refrigerate the jell--not jelling as a team yet. Why is John giving up a shot to Krikke?
JFL is clearly not himself. Really hope a wet floor didn't cost us our season.
Only Fazekas and a maybe couple others should be allowed to shoot 3s. Everyone else needs to stop
Horrible sequence by Mileek. It's time for Benny K to see some run with the first group.
What's a Valpo game without a double-digit deficit? Amiright?
Everyone just calm down.
Waite until the last 6 minutes or so and we will chip into this lead and make it a close game.
Gotta turn the momentum somehow. Work on getting Fazekas open.
That offense is just not getting Ryan open.
BTW, it's under 6 minutes.
Ryan and Javon 5-6. Rest of the team 0-12. Terrible ball movement. Jacking 3's, as always.
Knowing our luck tonight we'll miss the front of this one & one.
Sorry
John, if you're going to foul him make it count hurt
Did you notice the age of the mop guy (kid)? I think it's more a matter of training.
The one thing we did do well is create 10 TO's. We might be down 20 otherwise. A little better shot selection and finding a way to get Ryan the ball more, and we might climb back into this. I'm feeling optimistic.
Live look at our offense:
(https://media.giphy.com/media/hpFTV3KfDXTQ9X8pEX/giphy.gif)
Idk about the rest of you but I'm in complete shock that we dug ourselves into a hole that we'll now work our way out of only to likely have it be too little too late.
He miss these FTs
I tried.
That's it Javon. Make it hurt count.
Quote from: GoldenCrusader87 on January 29, 2020, 07:07:40 PM
Idk about the rest of you but I'm in complete shock that we dug ourselves into a hole that we'll now work our way out of only to likely have it be too little too late.
I think the run is over. Without Javon (and only partially) and Fazekas we won't take shots and when we do we don't make 'em.
Clay proving me wrong.
John needs to pull Ryan aside and give him the "not lose your cool" speech.
I guess Ryan being a senior wouldn't take to that.
I used to go to the Bixby Eye Center.
Guess I better start going back to the Bixby Eye Center. His name wasn't Bixby though.
Sucked in the first half, made a game of it in the second only to come up short again
Same old same old.
Great effort to get back to within 2, but absolutely dumb a$$ shot selection every single possession after that point.
Can't have the shooting droughts we have had to finish better in conference.
Same old :rant: !
I could literally copy and paste any post after a loss this year to express my feelings. I will say that it's hard to come back when simply looking at the opponent results in a foul.
Really though, there was not a scenario in my head where Valpo wins this one. Now pressure is on to win on Saturday. Do that.
Now sure of the line up Lottich has in the game at times. Mixes it up a lot.
Clay has a knack and he seems comfortable in crunch time. Not normal for a freshman big.
He moves his feet well on defense, almost as well as JFL. We'll get there!
Another close moral victory, the norm under Lottich
Quote from: crusadermoe on January 29, 2020, 08:49:33 PM
Clay has a knack and he seems comfortable in crunch time. Not normal for a freshman big.
He moves his feet well on defense, almost as well as JFL. We'll get there!
Needs to keep his head in the game all the time. Too many times our team makes mental mistakes that cost us possessions or points in a close game.
Just finished watching the replay. Brutal 1st half defense, no surprise there.
But I have to say, I nearly turned it off several times not because of our play, but because the refs made the game an unbearable slog. Total ump show tonight. If I'd paid for a ticket, I'd ask for a refund.
(Not that it made a difference in the outcome, we lost that one fair and square.)
All I'm going to say is there's been very few games this year where I thought the opposing team had more talent than we did.
All five home teams won tonight, again showing how important defending home court can be in this conference. Valpo should be able to do that Saturday, but next Wednesday will be a real test, perhaps the night for a surprising upset special! ::)
We are now eighth in the standings and our path out of the PIG while still alive doesn't look great right now. At least we have head to head over both 5-4 teams right now. We HAVE to beat Illinois State. If we can beat Missouri State at home when we play them later it will help a lot but those road games in Terre Haute and Des Moines just took on an absolutely critical importance as we are now two games out of 5th. We need to have both to avoid Thursday it looks like. We're improving year to year but are we improving enough? I really don't know the answer to that to be honest...
Forget what I said about the upcoming schedule and being a factor in the conference race. I don't care about that anymore this year. It's just not feasible. The only games that matter for this team are Illinois State (X2) @Indiana State Missouri State and @Drake. Oh and the home games because losing at home is the surest route to Thursday. That's it. Full stop. We MUST avoid Thursday. It is critical for the future of the program and the Lottich era itself.
Quote from: valpopal on January 29, 2020, 10:58:37 PMAll five home teams won tonight, again showing how important defending home court can be in this conference. Valpo should be able to do that Saturday, but next Wednesday will be a real test, perhaps the night for a surprising upset special! ::)
The MVC is second among all conferences for the best W-L% at home.
Quote from: VUGrad1314 on January 30, 2020, 02:05:47 AM
We are now eighth in the standings and our path out of the PIG while still alive doesn't look great right now. At least we have head to head over both 5-4 teams right now. We HAVE to beat Illinois State. If we can beat Missouri State at home when we play them later it will help a lot but those road games in Terre Haute and Des Moines just took on an absolutely critical importance as we are now two games out of 5th. We need to have both to avoid Thursday it looks like. We're improving year to year but are we improving enough? I really don't know the answer to that to be honest...
As I said before the decision on whether to keep Coach Lottich will be a tough one. The record will be better but not a lot better. But it wasn't as horrible as some predicted when last year's large number of transfers happened (the obvious over reaction). We are so close to winning but many times bad shooting and mental mistakes let us down just enough to change the outcome of the game. I think our AD will give Lottich a four year extension based on their coach employment history. I was really disappointed when they gave the previous WBB coach an extension but that is the Valpo Way. Let's hope Coach Lottich can figure it out and that if he doesn't by another 4 years Greg Tonagel would want to make the move to his alma mater and spend more than 6 years at this school.
BTW, I thought the game announcers on ESPN went out of their way, almost going beyond neutral, to be fair to Valpo, when calling the game on the ESPN+ video.
Quote from: Just Sayin on January 30, 2020, 05:58:31 AM
Quote from: valpopal on January 29, 2020, 10:58:37 PMAll five home teams won tonight, again showing how important defending home court can be in this conference. Valpo should be able to do that Saturday, but next Wednesday will be a real test, perhaps the night for a surprising upset special! ::)
The MVC is second among all conferences for the best W-L% at home.
As of today, Valpo has already played road games against three of the four top teams in conference (UNI, Bradley, SIU). If Valpo goes 5-4 (perhaps winning out at home, or dropping one game at home and picking up one game on the road), they will end the conference season 9-9. If they go 4-5, they will end up the season 8-10. As part of the discussion from September, a team that goes 10-8 in the MVC is often tied for third or fourth in conference, and 8-10 is often tied for sixth in conference.
We all want Valpo do do well, yet we should not discount how difficult it is to win in this league. The MVC is so much more difficult than the Horizon or Summit - there are so many good teams and no relatively easy wins.
I predict this year's team will have a worse record than last year. Fazekas won't be the savior and the team will continue to underperform and get beat.
Prove me wrong players and coaches.
Quote from: bbtds on January 30, 2020, 08:01:30 AMQuote from: VUGrad1314 on January 30, 2020, 02:05:47 AMWe are now eighth in the standings and our path out of the PIG while still alive doesn't look great right now. At least we have head to head over both 5-4 teams right now. We HAVE to beat Illinois State. If we can beat Missouri State at home when we play them later it will help a lot but those road games in Terre Haute and Des Moines just took on an absolutely critical importance as we are now two games out of 5th. We need to have both to avoid Thursday it looks like. We're improving year to year but are we improving enough? I really don't know the answer to that to be honest...
As I said before the decision on whether to keep Coach Lottich will be a tough one. The record will be better but not a lot better. But it wasn't as horrible as some predicted when last year's large number of transfers happened (the obvious over reaction). We are so close to winning but many times bad shooting and mental mistakes let us down just enough to change the outcome of the game. I think our AD will give Lottich a four year extension based on their coach employment history. I was really disappointed when they gave the previous WBB coach an extension but that is the Valpo Way. Let's hope Coach Lottich can figure it out and that if he doesn't by another 4 years Greg Tonagel would want to make the move to his alma mater and spend more than 6 years at this school. BTW, I thought the game announcers on ESPN went out of their way, almost going beyond neutral, to be fair to Valpo, when calling the game on the ESPN+ video.
Four years is a lot to commit to a guy who hasn't avoided Thursday and an around .500 coach without Alec Peters. I know he'd have a much better record in the Horizon League but we're not in the Horizon League. We need a Valley coach and before we commit four years to him I think we need more consistent proof that Lottich is and can be a Valley coach. He gets great talent though but talent and $5 will get you a footlong at Subway just ask Missouri State. You have to be able to coach them up and win games. Maybe that's coming really soon, maybe it isn't. It feels like the direction of the program hangs in the balance of this decision and I honestly don't know which way to go. I'm glad I'm not the one who has to make (and live with) this call. This is a legacy defining decision for Lottich and MLB.
As an outsider, I think the reaction to this single game by some is over the top. Valpo is performing right around their expectations for the year even before the Fazekas injury. Their core is still young. I'm not saying that Lottich is a fantastic coach, but I also don't see this year as underachievement.
They will likely wind up in a similar place despite being younger in a much more difficult version of the MVC. I don't think that means success, but it certainly doesn't mean failure.
Personally, I'd keep him through JFL's career at Valpo and then make an assessment as to the direction of the program. Tonagel isn't going anywhere anytime soon in my opinion.
The main issue is that we need a coach who can outperform the limitations here. Poor facilities, small school/high academic standards, declining game day atmosphere, etc. If I may make a cross sport reference: Speaking in baseball value terms, Matt Lottich is a replacement level MVC coach. Not bad, but not going to overcome the limitations. And when other aspects of our department are at or below replacement level that just doesn't get the job done.
And of course this isn't all on Lottich, it's an unfair situation to put any coach in. "So yeah, we're going to need you to go ahead and compete in a conference that has decades more success than your program. You're going to make less than most of them. Your budget is decent but you have to fundraise a portion of that yourself. You better recruit kids who can cut it in a very demanding academic environment. Oh, and you're going to play in a half empty high school gym on most nights. Have fun!"
Our High School gym is half full most nights!
On average 57% full this season ;)
Quote from: bbtds on January 30, 2020, 08:01:30 AMBTW, I thought the game announcers on ESPN went out of their way, almost going beyond neutral, to be fair to Valpo, when calling the game on the ESPN+ video.
I agree, what I didn't like is that there were times I wanted to know what happened in the game and they were just talking about some random innocuous fact about one of the teams and not explaining what had happened. A ton of gab but very little actual game analysis.
Quote from: NativeCheesehead on January 30, 2020, 11:21:39 AMPoor facilities
There is nothing poor about the basketball facilities. The ARC seating and concessions are poor which have nothing to do with the practice facilities, weight room, medical or nutrition available to the players.
Quote from: wh on January 29, 2020, 06:57:11 PM
The one thing we did do well is create 10 TO's. We might be down 20 otherwise. A little better shot selection and finding a way to get Ryan the ball more, and we might climb back into this. I'm feeling optimistic.
I'm still encouraged that we displayed the energy, drive, dedication and raw talent to come all the way back from 20 down mid way through the 2nd half to 3 down in the late stages of the game - on the road, against a good opponent, in front of a hostile crowd. Not many teams could do that. We're getting closer.
Wow I'm not against giving the guy 2 years so he can finish out with JFL. But 4 years???? What's he done to merit a 4 year extension? And why the fear we need to lock him up? Are other programs really going to be knocking at his door seducing him to come to their program? For more money? If so, based on what? He'd be much better off learning from this experience, being thankful Valpo gave him a shot when nobody else T a comparable level would've had reason to since he'd barely had a coaching career as an assistant and was third it fourth on the bench at that.
From there he'd be better off taking an assistant job at a bigger program. Could still make good money. He's got a lot to learn. Maybe go back to Stanford or the Pac 12 where's he's got some notoriety.
Valpo should bring in a proven winner with a Valpo background. That's Greg Tonagel. We'd be fortunate if he'd entertain the offer as we didn't give him a shot the last time around.
If the bar set for giving someone a 4 year extension is a mediocre record with declining student interest and a half full arena, then that's very telling.
It's paying off for Valpo WBB. Hiring someone from the outside. And she didn't even have the head coaching tenure Greg has had.
We do not see player development under this regime. Talent? You bet. Credit that to recruiting under-recruited guys. No doubt he'd be good in a talent acquisition role. But no evidence of player development. Mileek still gets in major foul trouble.
Nick does not seem to be getting better than the talent he had coming in. Daniel is playing better but his intangibles are still what carries him.
And we've said it going into the season, it's a bad sign when John gets the PT he's getting. No offense to him I know he's the fan favorite and I respect his work ethic and know he's a veteran on the court. But his playing time is seemingly a testament to the more talented players behind him not progressing nicely enough to substantiate to substantiate playing time
Like others have said - I hope I'm wrong. Matt can be a mid major level head coach in the future and garner success like Porter did. I just don't know that it's possible for that to happen while he's the HC at Valpo. May be better served coaching under someone else.
Look at Diebler and Powell. Both assistants at major high level programs learning a lot Im sure.
Other facilities? Like our new nutrition center which was literally a hallway when most of us were on campus? At BEST, our support facilities are slightly below par from our conference mates.
But I would argue the experience of the fans, from parking to seating and everything in between, is just as if not more important than everything else to the players. When the building is loud the players feed off it. Anyone who attended any of the HL tournament games or NIT can agree with that.
Wh - did you copy and paste that from a previous game...? :-[
A four year extension is laughable at this point.
I'd be calling Bryce begging him to come back if I were the AD.
Or Powell
Quote from: oklahomamick on January 30, 2020, 05:58:56 PM
Wh - did you copy and paste that from a previous game...? :-[
Believe me, Mick, I understand the disappointment as we continue to dig deep holes, claw our way back, only to falter down the stretch. That said, I'm also trying to remember that we're still in the first half of a 2-year marathon that will determine whether we're on the road to recovery, or mired in mediocrity. Thus, I'm looking for little improvements that while they may have been "too little too late" for a given game, give me hope that we can finish out this season on a positive note, and come back next year ready to compete for our first conference championship.
The biggest issue I see is that the decision on Lottich has to be made NOW. After THIS year. If he was fresh off a conference championship after next season it's a different story but any extension would be paying him for what he MIGHT do and not what he HAS done. That's what makes this such a hard decision. I do think we're close but I've thought we had turned a corner in the Lottich era multiple times before only to be sorely disappointed. This might just be another one of those times and it's hard to get behind committing multiple years to him while I still have that feeling.
If we are 8-10 / 9-9 this season it will be a BIG SUCCESS and based on roster turnover and Fazekas's injury I think for people to think anything else are INSANE with expectations for the year that are completely UNREASONABLE given our current roster.
We had a lot of roster turnover, Fazekas has been out and is just getting back into it, and our 2 best players are a freshman (clay) and a sophomore (JFL). Every time we take the floor in MVC play we have the worst 5 man in the conference. McMillan has improved a lot this year but is still a work in progress and Krikke has had moments but he is still just a freshman and is a bit of a project himself. Sackey is having a sophomore slump which is really not that unusual, lots of really good players have went through them, but you can see the potential there. We simply don't have enough shooters on the team and it does appear some help is on the way next year. Eron and Robinson have been really HOT/COLD when it comes to hitting 3's and that is not on the coach.
I agree that we probably take too many 3's and Lottich needs to adjust when they are not falling, but I REALLY LIKE the offensive improvements this year. Offense is getting better. Defense is weaker but it has been good the last few years, we are mostly struggling with defense more because of missing pieces and youth than effort.
Grow the hell up people. I don't give a darn if you are tired of the excuse of "youth". We had roster turnover, so now we are young again, deal with it. Recruits coming in next year look to be difference makers. Clay/Sackey/JFL/Krikke look like they are going to be something over the next 2 years. The negativity here sometimes is insane.
Compromise. 2 year extension. By then we will know what we have.
I think I'd be willing to do two years as a sort of bridge deal to prove what we've got once and for all in Lottich. He succeeds he gets a fat long term deal He fails he's gone and we search for someone else. For anyone pining for Bryce that would also be the timetable for the end of his Vanderbilt checks and for those looking to go in a different direction Diebler might be ready for a head coaching job by then and Tonagel would still be there too in all likelihood. (I'd suggest Powell as well but I don't think he's coming back. He was after all offered the head job in the first place. Why decline it just to take the same job years later?)
Quote from: SanityLost17 on January 31, 2020, 10:22:13 AM
If we are 8-10 / 9-9 this season it will be a BIG SUCCESS and based on roster turnover and Fazekas's injury I think for people to think anything else are INSANE with expectations for the year that are completely UNREASONABLE given our current roster.
We had a lot of roster turnover, Fazekas has been out and is just getting back into it, and our 2 best players are a freshman (clay) and a sophomore (JFL). Every time we take the floor in MVC play we have the worst 5 man in the conference. McMillan has improved a lot this year but is still a work in progress and Krikke has had moments but he is still just a freshman and is a bit of a project himself. Sackey is having a sophomore slump which is really not that unusual, lots of really good players have went through them, but you can see the potential there. We simply don't have enough shooters on the team and it does appear some help is on the way next year. Eron and Robinson have been really HOT/COLD when it comes to hitting 3's and that is not on the coach.
I agree that we probably take too many 3's and Lottich needs to adjust when they are not falling, but I REALLY LIKE the offensive improvements this year. Offense is getting better. Defense is weaker but it has been good the last few years, we are mostly struggling with defense more because of missing pieces and youth than effort.
Grow the hell up people. I don't give a darn if you are tired of the excuse of "youth". We had roster turnover, so now we are young again, deal with it. Recruits coming in next year look to be difference makers. Clay/Sackey/JFL/Krikke look like they are going to be something over the next 2 years. The negativity here sometimes is insane.
Compromise. 2 year extension. By then we will know what we have.
Sounds very reasonable; otherwise, Matt and the coaching staff are hamstrung when trying to recruit. Not extending his contract is the same as a vote of "no confidence." That's a big turn off for better recruits with lots of choices, wondering if the coach who recruited them and they want to play for might be shown the door after they commit.
Drake's success, especially last year, should basically kill the 'roster turnover' excuse, no?
I'm guessing that Matt will be given at least another four year contract. A good family man, smart guy, players like him, he works hard, is trying to make things much better and his first four years haven't been disastrous, although we fans obviously would like to see much more winning to say the least.
Although there may be concerns about Matt's performance, my guess is that they have probably been addressed by MLB and he sees that Matt not only agrees with those concerns, but he also is making some observable progress towards dealing with them. I don't see him being given a two year contract. That would not be the right message to him if in fact he IS making steady progress.
I think fans are just eager to see the team compete again at this higher level like we've done at every level we've been in since 1995. It's hard to end up with nothing to play for late in the year year after year but that was the risk of moving up to the MVC and as much as I have lamented our poor results I accept that wholeheartedly. I just want a competitive MVC level athletic program and I think we'll get there eventually. The waiting as they say though is the hardest part. I will say this much As stated multiple times previously Lottich has dealt with an incredible amount of adversity in his tenure and that is in addition to taking a job that nobody would envy him for taking: being the first post-Drew coach at Valpo since Valpo became a nationally relevant program. That is a hard job for anybody and I could understand if anybody passed on it for that reason. I don't know if I would have had the stomach to take it if I were in Lottich's position and he deserves a lot of credit for that. I think fundamentally it didn't and doesn't matter how Lottich performed especially initially he had a tough uphill battle when it comes to being embraced by a fanbase so accustomed to one name on the sidelines and the struggles he has had (normal for every first time coach especially when faced with the injuries the NCAA issues and moving conferences) just made it harder for him to be embraced. I mean even Bryce had to win us over and he had the benefit of the Drew name. What's it like to coach Valpo and NOT have the Drew name? I don't envy Matt Lottich's position and I respect him for taking it on. I hope this long navigation down this frustrating road full of trials and tribulations leads somewhere promising. Matt Lottich deserves that. He deserves several positive breaks with all the bad ones he's had to swallow and I hope he gets them so that he can get the embrace from the entire Valpo community that a man of his character and ambition deserves. I am rooting for him.
Quote from: VUGrad1314 on January 31, 2020, 10:39:53 AM(I'd suggest Powell as well but I don't think he's coming back. He was after all offered the head job in the first place. Why decline it just to take the same job years later?)
Because the decision to move on with Bryce basically failed and this could now be a good move into a head coaching position at a school that he has many of the same beliefs.
Quote from: NativeCheesehead on January 31, 2020, 11:20:21 AM
Drake's success, especially last year, should basically kill the 'roster turnover' excuse, no?
1. Drake had shooters. They shot a high percentage from 3 last year. 3 point line was closer last year as well.
2. MVC was historically bad last year. Is up to 11th in RPI this year, that Drake team would have finished lower this year I guarantee it.
3. More often than not teams with high turnover don't do well, but good job cherry picking a few examples to prove your point. In general, the data shows you Drake was the exception to the rule.
I can do this all day. Logic > Emotion and all the Lottich haters out there are speaking more from emotion than from logic.
We just lost a game at Bradley... A GAME WE WERE SUPPOSED TO LOSE and that 90% of posters at the beginning of the season would have marked an "L" at the beginning of the season and all the sudden this was a bad loss? <starts pulling out own hair> C'mon!
Maybe I'm crazy but I'd do a 2 year extension especially if that would help keep any of our younger guys and recruits on board. I figured a .500 season was reasonable. I do like most of his recruits and the flashes of good play have been there.
Quote from: SanityLost17 on January 31, 2020, 11:50:45 AM
Quote from: NativeCheesehead on January 31, 2020, 11:20:21 AM
Drake's success, especially last year, should basically kill the 'roster turnover' excuse, no?
1. Drake had shooters. They shot a high percentage from 3 last year. 3 point line was closer last year as well.
2. MVC was historically bad last year. Is up to 11th in RPI this year, that Drake team would have finished lower this year I guarantee it.
3. More often than not teams with high turnover don't do well, but good job cherry picking a few examples to prove your point. In general, the data shows you Drake was the exception to the rule.
I can do this all day. Logic > Emotion and all the Lottich haters out there are speaking more from emotion than from logic.
We just lost a game at Bradley... A GAME WE WERE SUPPOSED TO LOSE and that 90% of posters at the beginning of the season would have marked an "L" at the beginning of the season and all the sudden this was a bad loss? <starts pulling out own hair> C'mon!
1. I get that Lottich can't make the ball go in the hole but he also cannot be fully absolved from the struggles of the players he recruited. If they struggle repeatedly it's entirely fair to wonder why. Is it mental? Is it the opposing defenses? Is the player hurt? Is it coaching? Coaching is invariably going to be on the list of concerns when you see a struggling player and team. It's unavoidable.
2. You can't guarantee this. SIU's performance in conference this year with a skeleton crew would seem to fly in the face of this counterpoint. I think that Drake team would have been about as good or better than this SIU team which would put them near the top of the conference right now. It also suggests that NativeCheesehead wasn't so clearly cherry picking. Yes the math is in your favor but that doesn't make his point irrelevant especially when we're looking at teams in the same conference it reads like an apt apples to apples comparison.
3. I don't think you'll find a single Lottich hater on this board. Skeptics? Yes. Haters? No. Nobody hates Lottich and those who are skeptical are understandably concerned with the results we have seen over an extended period. If (and I say IF) he struggles next year what will the reason be? Would you then finally be willing to give credence to the arguments of the Lottich skeptics? By then however we'd have three more years of those results and that kind of thing can really hurt a program's momentum.
Using the term "haters" in your defense is itself an emotional term so you're not being as calmly logical as you claim to be but that's beside the point,
4. Here's where your argument really loses steam and devolves into emotion. NOBODY is calling a road loss in Carver arena where Bradley has lost only to UNI this year (13-1) a bad loss. They are a 57 spots higher than we are in the NET (96 vs 153). Calling that a bad loss is utterly ridiculous and nobody is doing it. They may say we played badly in the loss but that is not remotely in the same universe as calling it a bad loss. The issue the Lottich skeptics have is that it's another loss and there have been plenty of them with the same issues that have plagued this program for years being the main cause of that loss. The fact that the issues afflicting this program in the Lottich era have endured for a long time is an issue that fans can and should rightly be concerned over. That's not emotion. That's logic. That's facts. I know you're joking in the last part but pulling your hair out is a pretty emotional reaction too.
I think you'll find there is zero emotion in this post and I have laid out a very good logical case for the position of the Lottich skeptics. We don't hate him, we like him as a person. We are simply unsure if he is the right man for the job to lead us where we need to go in the MVC but we are hoping that he is and we are rooting for him. Nobody on this board wants to see Lottich or Valpo fail.
Quote from: SanityLost17 on January 31, 2020, 11:50:45 AM
Quote from: NativeCheesehead on January 31, 2020, 11:20:21 AM
Drake's success, especially last year, should basically kill the 'roster turnover' excuse, no?
1. Drake had shooters. They shot a high percentage from 3 last year. 3 point line was closer last year as well.
2. MVC was historically bad last year. Is up to 11th in RPI this year, that Drake team would have finished lower this year I guarantee it.
3. More often than not teams with high turnover don't do well, but good job cherry picking a few examples to prove your point. In general, the data shows you Drake was the exception to the rule.
I can do this all day. Logic > Emotion and all the Lottich haters out there are speaking more from emotion than from logic.
We just lost a game at Bradley... A GAME WE WERE SUPPOSED TO LOSE and that 90% of posters at the beginning of the season would have marked an "L" at the beginning of the season and all the sudden this was a bad loss? <starts pulling out own hair> C'mon!
You have solid points on the pre-season expectations -vs- reality, I felt we were in the range of 8-10 to 11-7 depending how we progressed.
My main concern with this team is just how easily our G are getting beat off the dribble. There is not a single G that has consistently kept with their mark in the first half of our games. This causes nearly all of our defenders to suck into the lane to try and defend. I am absolutely amazed at how many easy layups/open 3s ensue. If most of our opponents weren't so stunned by the wide open (late close out) 3 attempts they might just make more buckets.
It often times seems like this mostly occurs for the first 10 minutes of every game we've played. What about driving to the basket results in such high success rates in the first 10 minutes of nearly every game? There is no seasonality here, otherwise neophytes like myself wouldn't be so flummoxed by this. You know your opponent and have 3 or 4 days to scout them.
When does that stop? I grant you we lost all the size inside and most opponents feel they can drive with impunity. Is that really the most glaring difference? Were we routinely getting smoked on dribble drives the last few years? What is different? I'd appreciate others POV on this. I can handle the offensive lulls but these defensive effort lulls have caused me to turn off more games than I care to admit.
Quote from: M on January 31, 2020, 12:04:24 PM
Maybe I'm crazy but I'd do a 2 year extension especially if that would help keep any of our younger guys and recruits on board. I figured a .500 season was reasonable. I do like most of his recruits and the flashes of good play have been there.
If this is the year we have to re-up him or fire him, I'd vote for a 2 year extension. I like the guys in the program in general and I think well of the upcoming recruiting class. Even though I am not happy with the defensive intensity and effort in most first halves, I think I can overlook the fact that we are a small midwest school with moderate to lesser resources.
Interesting debate :thumbsup:
Lottich aside--- Here is what bothers me about the rest of our season. For Valley games only (9) we hold a shooting % of .407 vs our opponents at .467. Thats BIG! From 3 we stand at 30% with 257 attempts vs 39% in 172 attempts from our opposition. Thats Bigger! We are also getting out rebounded by 3.9 per game. In the absence of additional information our 4-5 record and my 9-9 projection would look like excellent results ??? Maybe?
Even with everybody healthy we have a major weakness in not having any post up threats. Nobody gives us a reliably high 2 point shooting percentage. Last year we had no outside shooting. This year we have no inside game. Those are big handicaps for any team and any coach.
I was looking at the NET to make my argument for that last post in response to SanityLost17 and had a huge epiphany (not in the way you might expect)... The biggest issue and obstacle in the Lottich tenure is the one he had the least control over. When he was hired we were still an HL team and the MVC invite was not in the offing. He was hired to be a coach in the HL and only JUST NOW did he clear the decks of the HL players.
Now let's look at the NET: According to it Wright State the class of the HL would be 5th in the MVC behind UNI Bradley Loyola and ISUb. Northern Kentucky the second best team in the HL would be 7th (a PIG team) with Drake and Missouri State leapfrogging them. Think about that: THE SECOND BEST HL TEAM WOULD BE A PIG TEAM IN THE MVC. What's more, they also have the benefit of playing that soft HL schedule to goose their metrics. A whopping 8 TEAMS in the HL have lower NET ratings than the 9TH PLACE MVC TEAM (ISUr). THREE of those teams (IUPUI Detroit and Cleveland St) have lower ratings than the MVC's 10th place team (Evansville).
Since we swept Evansville that's 6 wins right there that we would easily get in the HL that are not promised to us in the MVC. Consider then that we beat ISUb who has a higher NET rating than every HL team and that suggests at least a split with everyone else if not better. The point being if you think Matt Lottich wouldn't have kept the train rolling for us if we were in the HL and kept us as a contender in that conference you're totally mistaken. Since we just recently cleared the roster of players recruited to play in the HL there is a very strong case to be made that patience with Lottich is totally warranted. This was not my earlier position because I admit I was using emotion as my guiding compass especially up through the SIU loss but Matt Lottich deserves a chance to show what he can do with a roster full of MVC caliber players recruited to play in the MVC. Considering how tough we played Loyola and UNI and the promise of our upcoming recruits. If the group holds together we might stop eating so many losses and getting our faces rubbed in the dirt much sooner than we all realize. There's an argument to be made and a very compelling one at that that we are really close and the only things we and Matt Lottich need are just a little more time and patience to get where we want.
I think most of the Lottich skeptics (especially me) underestimated just how great the jump is from the HL to the MVC as these numbers clearly show. We accepted that it was a step up and a big one but we did not realize that once you get into the top 12 or so conferences the leap is orders of magnitude larger. The point going from the 18th best conference (at the time of our move) to the 12th (at the time and that was a down year for the MVC to boot) is not the same as going from the 24th best conference to the 18th. This is just like jumping from the Mid Con to the Butler era HL which was nearly on par with but a notch below the MVC of the time but is very much on par with (even still a notch below) the current MVC. We remember how hard that was our first four or so years and this is even harder because this conference is BETTER especially when it's firing on all cylinders. Again I am sorry Matt. I underestimated the difficulty of your job and your situation,
This debate is so hard for me because I can literally see and identify with both sides and the case is compelling in both directions. I don't envy MLB for having to make this decision. It's hard.
My biggest concern is that, if you go with another coach you run the risk of losing recruits and current players and so you end up with a young team AGAIN with a new coach. So, in theory any new coach coming in will be starting off in an even worse position and will need even more time to get going. I am for giving Lottich time for at least two more years and then see because I think starting over with a new coach again has too high of a tail risk that the program shouldn't take it.
People are frustrated now but I think there might be some underestimation of how much worse it could be.
Again, to me the measure of progress is not playing on Thursday in STL. If we're there again this year to me the excuses have to stop.
I know one thing.....
We haven't been mediocre for a very very long time.
Most of the rationales for buying into Matt aren't factors that represent being locked into a commitment to this program as a marquee one. Hence the routine emphasis on him being a nice guy, and a family man, and a good high school player. I just don't get how those are features that will get us over the hump by making up for the poor arena, lack of energy / student support, small school, hefty tuition, and crappy weather.
I honestly believe that an extension to Lottich's contract is either 4 years or nothing. Again it's the Valpo Way and very much part of Valpo's history. You give a coach a 2-year extension and the recruits think the AD doesn't have enough confidence in the coach to stay for 4 years.
Can't imagine this experiment going on for nearly a decade.
Hey, you remember that time we destroyed St. Mary's in front of an electric ARC crowd?