Men's Basketball to Start Home-Heavy Stretch on Saturday
http://www.valpoathletics.com/mbasketball/news/2019-20/19661/mens-basketball-to-start-home-heavy-stretch-on-saturday/
Valpo 79
ISUr 67
This is a must win if we want any hope of avoiding Thursday. With two very tough games against Loyola and UNI plus a tilt with a white hot SIU team we really need this one. We cannot lose to teams at the bottom of the standings.
We will win. But the big question is, do we play 1st half or 2nd half? You know the halfs will be polar opposite of each other, I just don't know which one we will play.
Five hours till tip off and still a good amount of seats available. Roughly 1,500 seats in the bleachers and 200 Chairbacks!
Prime time Saturday Night game! Weather is good 34 degrees at tip off!
Grab your coats and head to the Arc!!!! :dance:
Stinking it up early.
Lottich Special. Again.
At least we're keeping the ball out of our own hoop. If this team can ever deliver consistently average shooting defense, we'll win a lot of close games that we'd otherwise lose because these shooting droughts won't put us in such deep holes.
Oof, gonna be another ump show tonight.
I wonder if we can donate specifically to hire a better caliber of officials...
Two teams that did not come to shoot well today
I am thoroughly entertained by this evening's game so far! These kids are battling!
Lotta whistles thus far...
I was hoping for a slightly better crowd for a Saturday night.. at least the students are standing?
I realize these are cliche things to complain on the internet about.
It seems to have settled now but for awhile I was worried someone was gonna get hurt
Todd with the jinx, giving us a 7 pt lead before JFL takes his FT.
Bad foul by Ryan Bad bad foul. I hope those two free throws at the end of the half don't somehow come back to bite us.
ILS deserved all 15 of their fouls in the 1st half, and probably several more. Reminds me of Cleveland State back in the day. Body up, knees and elbows extended, hold, elbow.
Great pass Daniel Great cut Javon. Illinois State getting hot. Not good.
I miss having a team that could rebound... We haven't had that since Vashil...
Good stuff on both ends now!
Don't let up! Blow this one open! Leave no doubt! Come on Valpo!
It's rebounding by committee on this team. We don't have any Vashil, Alec, or Rowdy-type rebounders, that always know where the ball will go. Case in point, Rowdy has 4 rebounds in 5 minutes for the Mavs at this point in the Mavs/Hawks game.
Crikey do I love me some Ben Krikke!
Where'd this jump shot come from Daniel? I love it!
Say what you want about X's and O's but Matt can recruit. There's no doubt about that.
Quote from: VUGrad1314 on February 01, 2020, 08:53:51 PM
Where'd this jump shot come from Daniel? I love it!
This is not a knock against your comment, but Sackey is not cutting it overall. I'd like to see Zion get minutes at the PG more.
Ben Krikke have yourself a game
NICE PASS!
Krikke and Clay :thumbsup:
Great all around effort tonight
Fun to watch when we click!!!
All patterns hold true again tonight. Sure is going to be nice to beat Loyola at Gentile! ;)
Overcame the slow start and got the win. Take it.
Great game from Krikke. He's earning more playing time.
Got that NET bonus. Got back to .500. Tough stretch coming up.
UNI
@Loyola
SIU
Wow... Just underscores the importance of taking care of business against Illinois State. A loss here probably all but sealed a Thursday trip. Now there is still hope but it's hard to imagine doing any better than 1-2 in that stretch...
UNI 8-2
Loyola 7-3
SIU 7-3
Bradley 6-4
Indiana State 6-4
Drake 5-5
Valpo 5-5
Missouri State 4-6
Illinois St 2-8
Evansville 0-10
This conference is insane.
The good news is after that tough stretch I talked about we play all the teams we're fighting to avoid the PIG but a lot can change over 3 games so we'll have to see what the standings look like then. This will be tough sledding. Even at home, none of the next three games is a bad loss. If we go 3-0 or 2-1 I like our chances of avoiding Thursday a lot. If we go 1-2 I still like our chances but we will have to walk a near perfect tightrope. Dropping all of the next three would leave precious little margin for error in the final stretch. The progress and growth from this team compared to past years is quite evident. Yes we keep having slow starts and dead periods but we are taking care of business at home and beating the teams we should beat in conference so far. This is a good sign and bodes well for the future. Another reason it might be prudent to keep Lottich around. With these steps accomplished the next step is winning some surprise games to vault into contention. That could (and if everyone stays together should) happen. There are so many ifs in this season.
If Fazekas hadn't gotten hurt
If we had finished against Cincinnati and Arkansas
If we had won @ Missouri State
If we had finished that UNI game
If we had finished that Loyola game
If we get even half of these we view our season (and Lottich) very differently than we do now. We need to take that into consideration as we evaluate his and our program's future. I'm coming around and leaning towards keeping him. I really think we're close enough that that is most likely in the program's best interests. His performance over the final 8 games can seal it for me. We'll see how the rest of the year unfolds.
Nobody said anything here... but JASON will be back on Wednesday. He had a long-standing commitment at a non-profit fund raiser tonight... I MISSED HIM...
Time to snap the WLWLWLWLW pattern...
It might get snapped but not in the way we hope... This three game stretch is brutal. The two best teams in the Valley followed by the hottest team in the Valley.
Interesting to note that we only took fifteen 3 pt shots this game. Javon only shot one, and Ryan only took two. It's not clear (to me) how much of this was due to Ill St's lack of size, and how much was a change of emphasis that will carry over for upcoming games.
25% of our points were free throws -- it would have been nice to make more than 2/3 of our FT attempts.
If you read the early comments you would have thought we are an awful team. It was pretty funny really. What I saw tonight was a "team" effort with a "team" that finally is at full strength and a "team" not relying on Javon to do it all. A great coaching job rotating players in and out as well. A terrific, entertaining game! GO VALPO!!
https://www.pantagraph.com/sports/college/illinois-state/illinois-state-can-t-hold-second-half-lead-as-valparaiso/article_6969c6e6-fdd2-5734-817e-139a8c9b6ba7.html#tracking-source=home-top-story
Quote from: humbleopinion on February 02, 2020, 05:32:50 AM
Interesting to note that we only took fifteen 3 pt shots this game. Javon only shot one, and Ryan only took two. It's not clear (to me) how much of this was due to Ill St's lack of size, and how much was a change of emphasis that will carry over for upcoming games.
Gore said that ILS guarded closely on the perimeter, and followed with now what we need to do is not settle for 3's against teams that don't guard so close.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4O7nnQNMzG4&feature=share
Such fun to bask in the moment after a win - reading the newspaper accounts, watching the postgame, feeling the upbeat mood of other fans exiting the ARC, reading posts from fellow diehards. It keeps you wanting to come back for more. Life is good.
"Life is Good".....Until Midweek where life may be great or the fans want a new coach ;)
"Life is Good"
Just some obvious observations about the game. Good: Sackey seemed a bit more under control and only ran into a turnover once during the game. In fact, the team did a good job of limiting turnovers all night. Good: Robinson looked more healthy than he has in a few games: in just 16 minutes, he had 5 pts. 3 rebs. 3 steals and an assist. Good: The team cut down their 3-pt attempts to only 15 and shot 40%, thanks to Fazekas. Good: Speaking of Fazekas, having his outside threat in the game for 28 minutes helped open up the inside for Krikke. Good: Donovan is solidifying his position as Robin to JFL's Batman or Scottie to JFL's Jordan, and I would love to see them together a couple more years. Good: Defense (and poor shooting by ISU) kept Valpo in the game early, and the team had 9 steals. Not as Good: JFL is the key on the court, but he still seems a little bit off, especially in his 3-pt shot, where he was just 0-1, and I am hoping to see him rested a little more in practice the next couple days to be strong and in 100% shape for Wednesday's game. Not as Good: Free throw shooting was 67%, and the two who missed the most were JFL and Krikke, missing 7 shots. Not Good: McMillen still having trouble with fouls, and one keeps hoping he will get over the problem the way Vashil eventually did in his senior year; however, the flip side is that Mileek's fouls forced Matt to play Krikke more minutes, which turned out to be a blessing. Good: On the other hand, Morgan was 3-3 from the free throw line! Okay: Finally, Matt seemed a little more fired up with the officials, though nowhere near as forceful as Muller. Good: Matt has more depth to work into the game, and it became a definite advantage in this game with bench points 36-13. Bad: Slow starts again in both halves! Great: Fazekas appears to be all right after the injury when he slipped on the court and fell near the end of the game.
Quote from: valpopal on February 02, 2020, 10:57:53 AMJFL is the key on the court, but he still seems a little bit off, especially in his 3-pt shot,
Even in the warm ups he was missing badly. I suspect he is still playing at less than 100%.
Quote from: valpopal on February 02, 2020, 10:57:53 AMMorgan was 3-3 from the free throw line!
They all looked good leaving his hands. :thumbsup: Zion is becoming a big asset coming off the bench. Great defense! Decent assist to TO numbers! Fantastic nose for RBs! Every 4 minutes on the floor he tracks down a missed shot. Nobody else on the team is even close in that category and many of his are on the offensive end. Big, quick guards who can anticipate where missed shots are landing are a wonderful thing to have!
Quote from: valpopal on February 02, 2020, 10:57:53 AMMatt has more depth to work into the game, and it became a definite advantage in this game with bench points 36-13.
If we can stay healthy we will go down the stretch with the only 10 player substitution rotation in the Valley. Most are getting by with only 7 or 8. Bruninga is a case in point. Last night he saw the floor for only 2 minutes! Every 6 to 10 bench player we have is situationally better than our starters. The last time we had that was when Bryce coached. Granted that none are superstars with guaranteed instant offense but ALL are solid contributors.
Quote from: valpopal on February 02, 2020, 10:57:53 AMRobinson looked more healthy than he has in a few games
Agree and he more or less adequately played the point for several minutes vs ISU. This and the improvements for Zion are greatly expanding our options! :)
Was Robinson playing while ill? He looked more lethargic than normal, or was feeling something else in his body. He didn't play poorly, but he just didn't look the same when moving, or trying to go past folks.
Quote from: valpotx on February 02, 2020, 12:52:06 PM
Was Robinson playing while ill? He looked more lethargic than normal, or was feeling something else in his body. He didn't play poorly, but he just didn't look the same when moving, or trying to go past folks.
Back injury vs Charlotte. Since then I believe he has missed 2 games and not started others. With absolutely no inside knowledge I would observationally rate him, Javon and Ryan as all being not better than 90% and maybe less. That said, I'll take 12 scholarship players in uniform with 3 or 4 banged up over dressing only 8 or 9 which we did several times in recent years. We now have a clear depth advantage over most of the league. It may only be temporary but we should try to exploit it. I'd say that UNI and Loyola are close but all 3 teams are one bad ankle twist away from picking up a couple additional unanticipated losses. Injuries are just part of the game.
Well this team still seems to like each other at this point of the year which is a big improvement over last year, also they have learned to score in more ways then one , and are generally healthy. I would think they will do better then last year, how much only time will tell ??? But they will be fun to watch as long you do not demand a win each time out.
Does this quote from ISUr freshman guard DJ Horne sound familiar?
"I thought in the first half we came with the fight we needed, something we've been lacking. All we need to do is finish it off for 40 minutes and we'll be good."
I kind of have the feeling in watching this team that the closeness and team play, including contributions from a lot of players, is continuing to improve as opposed to last year when as the season progressed it appeared to get worse as team play often appeared to break down. Coach L is doing a great job in utilizing his bench strength and promoting cohesive team play. Fun to watch! We are due to surprise somebody any day now.
A surprise victory or two would go a long way in helping us to avoid Thursday but to be honest I think that's going to come down to how we do in the final stretch of the season (last five games from February 15 onwards) Valpo's NET right now is 155 for your reference.
February 15 @ Illinois State (2-8) NET 206
February 19 @ Drake (5-5) NET 153
February 22 Vs Bradley (6-4) NET 102
February 25 Vs Missouri State (4-6) NET 154
February 29 @ Indiana State (6-4) NET 100
I have a feeling the games before this stretch are going to take much of our margin for error away so we'll probably have to go 4-1 or better (or at least 3-2) in this stretch. Luckily, I think we can do it based on how we've played against these teams in our previous meetings. Go Valpo! I believe! All three road games are winnable though the disparity on both sides suggests we should beat Illinois State and lose to Indiana State but we surprised the Sycamores at home when their NET was much higher and the Redbirds have been pretty good at home (they beat UNI there after all). The Drake and Missouri State games are essentially a pick 'em with home floor helping us against the Bears, while Bradley will be a tough but winnable home game. I really think this is doable guys especially if we can get one or two surprises in our next three games. But it's all going to come down to the Final two weeks and that is why I love this conference.
Quote from: valpo64 on February 03, 2020, 01:07:20 PMCoach L is doing a great job in utilizing his bench strength and promoting cohesive team play. Fun to watch! We are due to surprise somebody any day now.
Well yeah, I would think that :thumbsup: but all the MVC analytics and backward reflecting rankings show us to be an also ran (Just Sayin has us for only 1 more victory) so who are we to argue? Obviously getting a pre season MVC second team all conference player back along with the other banged up starters healthy isn't going to help us at all. I mean we were bad, so we are bad, so we will continue to be bad. What part of that airtight logic do you not understand? ::)
For any of you who may need the above translated---------I think we are about ready to hit our stride and get hot.
And this is what i love about sports. While there will always be debate, the results are the results. Your record is your record.
For all of us (most of this board) who have staked a position in the Great Lottich Debate, we're about to find out who's right. The rest of this season may be the most important stretch of Valpo B-ball since the NIT run.
Quote from: justducky on February 03, 2020, 09:58:14 PMQuote from: valpo64 on February 03, 2020, 01:07:20 PMCoach L is doing a great job in utilizing his bench strength and promoting cohesive team play. Fun to watch! We are due to surprise somebody any day now.
Well yeah, I would think that :thumbsup: but all the MVC analytics and backward reflecting rankings show us to be an also ran (Just Sayin has us for only 1 more victory) so who are we to argue? Obviously getting a pre season MVC second team all conference player back along with the other banged up starters healthy isn't going to help us at all. I mean we were bad, so we are bad, so we will continue to be bad. What part of that airtight logic do you not understand? ::) For any of you who may need the above translated---------I think we are about ready to hit our stride and get hot.
Your hope is merely wishful speculation. Nothing wrong with that. Gotta have hope that the team will be successful. My prediction is based on facts. Yes those facts represent what occurred in the past. But they have shown over and over what this team has actually done, how they have performed on a consistent (or inconsistent) basis and the picture of this team which has developed is that they aren't one of the top teams in the MVC. They can be expected to perform roughly in the same way that they have actually performed during the past 23 games. Can that change? Of course, but probably not significantly. It's highly unlikely given their actual record of performance to date. Does Fazekas change the dynamics of this team? Yes, most likely in a positive way. Do they seem to be coming together in ways they have not shown in previous games? Yes, but most teams get better as the season progresses. However, even with the addition of an impact player like Fazekas, you can't turn the entire ship around on a dime and this team is what the team has proved itself to be. They have proved on the court game after game that they are a solid 7th place team in the MVC at this time. I just don't see how that will change barring some miracle. But heck, we can dream. I'd love to see them go 9-0, make the dance and win a game or two. But really? This year, this team? Ain't gonna happen. Maybe next year or the year after.
Quote from: Just Sayin on February 04, 2020, 08:34:00 AM
Quote from: justducky on February 03, 2020, 09:58:14 PMQuote from: valpo64 on February 03, 2020, 01:07:20 PMCoach L is doing a great job in utilizing his bench strength and promoting cohesive team play. Fun to watch! We are due to surprise somebody any day now.
Well yeah, I would think that :thumbsup: but all the MVC analytics and backward reflecting rankings show us to be an also ran (Just Sayin has us for only 1 more victory) so who are we to argue? Obviously getting a pre season MVC second team all conference player back along with the other banged up starters healthy isn't going to help us at all. I mean we were bad, so we are bad, so we will continue to be bad. What part of that airtight logic do you not understand? ::) For any of you who may need the above translated---------I think we are about ready to hit our stride and get hot.
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Your hope is merely wishful speculation. Nothing wrong with that. Gotta have hope that the team will be successful. My prediction is based on facts. Yes those facts represent what occurred in the past. But they have shown over and over what this team has actually done, how they have performed on a consistent (or inconsistent) basis and the picture of this team which has developed is that they aren't one of the top teams in the MVC. They can be expected to perform roughly in the same way that they have actually performed during the past 23 games. Can that change? Of course, but probably not significantly. It's highly unlikely given their actual record of performance to date. Does Fazekas change the dynamics of this team? Yes, mostly likely in a positive way. Do they seem to be coming together in ways they have not shown in previous games? Yes, but most teams get better as the season progresses. However, even with the addition of an impact player like Fazekas, you can't turn the entire ship around on a dime and this team is what the team has proved itself to be. They have proved on the court game after game that they are a solid 7th place team in the MVC at this time. I just don't see how that will change barring some miracle. But heck, we can dream. I'd love to see them go 9-0, make the dance and win a game or two. But really? This year, this team? Ain't gonna happen. Maybe next year or the year after.
Wel we are about to find out. We FINALLY are at full strength. We have a LOAD of potential--think about losing to Loyola at 3 WITHOUT Ryan or beating a very good Toledo team with Clay, Gordon and Krikke providing a combined 2 points! Tomorrow will tell us pretty much everything regarding our chances for a top 6 season. I'm convinced that if JFL can get his shot back and we see solid defense and continued contributions across the team, that we CAN avoid Thursday and win a couple of games.
Quote from: Just Sayin on February 04, 2020, 08:34:00 AM
Quote from: justducky on February 03, 2020, 09:58:14 PMQuote from: valpo64 on February 03, 2020, 01:07:20 PMCoach L is doing a great job in utilizing his bench strength and promoting cohesive team play. Fun to watch! We are due to surprise somebody any day now.
Well yeah, I would think that :thumbsup: but all the MVC analytics and backward reflecting rankings show us to be an also ran (Just Sayin has us for only 1 more victory) so who are we to argue? Obviously getting a pre season MVC second team all conference player back along with the other banged up starters healthy isn't going to help us at all. I mean we were bad, so we are bad, so we will continue to be bad. What part of that airtight logic do you not understand? ::) For any of you who may need the above translated---------I think we are about ready to hit our stride and get hot.
Your hope is merely wishful speculation. Nothing wrong with that. Gotta have hope that the team will be successful. My prediction is based on facts. Yes those facts represent what occurred in the past. But they have shown over and over what this team has actually done, how they have performed on a consistent (or inconsistent) basis and the picture of this team which has developed is that they aren't one of the top teams in the MVC. They can be expected to perform roughly in the same way that they have actually performed during the past 23 games. Can that change? Of course, but probably not significantly. It's highly unlikely given their actual record of performance to date. Does Fazekas change the dynamics of this team? Yes, most likely in a positive way. Do they seem to be coming together in ways they have not shown in previous games? Yes, but most teams get better as the season progresses. However, even with the addition of an impact player like Fazekas, you can't turn the entire ship around on a dime and this team is what the team has proved itself to be. They have proved on the court game after game that they are a solid 7th place team in the MVC at this time. I just don't see how that will change barring some miracle. But heck, we can dream. I'd love to see them go 9-0, make the dance and win a game or two. But really? This year, this team? Ain't gonna happen. Maybe next year or the year after.
Are you talking about Valpo or Bradley... ;) With the exception of "winning a game or two" in the dance, isn't that exactly what Bradley did last year? So when Valpo started out 5-1 last year you would have said that they were an upper level MVC team based on actual performance? I agree that it is unlikely that we will end up in the top 4 of conference, but anything is still possible. If the team that played Arkansas (even without Ryan) shows up to play the remainder of our games then who knows were we finish. Maybe we are this year's Bradley. :o
Quote from: NativeCheesehead on February 03, 2020, 10:08:54 PMFor all of us (most of this board) who have staked a position in the Great Lottich Debate, we're about to find out who's right. The rest of this season may be the most important stretch of Valpo B-ball since the NIT run.
Yup! No more excuses. The Lottich engine has been totally rebuilt and needs tested in the straightaway. How powerful and reliable this 10 cylinder model proves is anybodies guess.
Quote from: Just Sayin on February 04, 2020, 08:34:00 AMYour hope is merely wishful speculation.
Quickly changing the subject, I'm guessing that you may be watching the huge stock market gyrations as closely as I am. If you would be so kind please let me know what you are selling (so that I can buy), and what you are buying (so that I can sell). Please hurry! Time is of the essence.
Quote from: vu72 on February 04, 2020, 09:13:20 AMI'm convinced that if JFL can get his shot back and we see solid defense and continued contributions across the team, that we CAN avoid Thursday and win a couple of games.
If we get and stay fully healthy and are still a Thursday team then I would certainly consider showing Matt the door. I might even consider throwing him against it. ;)
There's an argument to be made that Fazekas turns a lot of these losses we've suffered into wins. I think with a healthy Fazekas we would be in a very different position right now. Patience guys. We're close. Very close. We may not see it this year, we may end up in seventh place. But if we can stay together and avoid the transfer bug, I have a hard time not seeing us as a factor in the MVC race from the jump next year. At large contender? That might be a bit much to say. Top 4 or 5 team with potential to be much more? You bet. We're getting there. It took Loyola like a solid 4-5 years to get where they needed to go. We're in year 3 and making great progress. I know this isn't an apples to apples comparison because we don't have Wichita State to beat the crap out of us and hand us two losses like Loyola did when they were building but have a look at this:
2013-2014 Loyola: 10-22 4-14 10th place MVC Beat Bradley in St Louis MVC RPI Rank: 11
2017-2018 Valpo: 15-17 6-12 10th Place MVC Winless in St Louis MVC RPI Rank: 8
2014-2015 Loyola: 24-13 8-10 6th Place MVC WON CBI Beat Indiana St in St Louis MVC RPI Rank: 9
2018-2019 Valpo: 15-18 7-11 9th Place MVC Beat Indiana St in St Louis MVC NET Rank: 14 (Remember this was the Me-first Year and started 5-1 we could have and should have been much better than this)
2015-2016 Loyola: 15-17 7-11 8th place MVC Beat Bradley in St Louis MVC RPI Rank: 13
2019-2020 Valpo: 12-11 5-5 Result TBD MVC NET Rank: 11
2016-2017 Loyola 18-14 8-10 5th place MVC Winless in St Louis MVC RPI Rank: 12
2020-2021 Valpo: TBD MVC NET Rank: 11
2017-2018 Loyola: 32-5 15-3 1st Place MVC WON ARCH MADNESS MADE FINAL 4 MVC RPI Rank: 8
2021-2022 Valpo: TBD
Conclusions: It took until year 5 for Loyola to crack the .500 mark in conference. We have a chance to do it in year 3 and arguably should have done it in year 2. It's hard to glean much from the standings because Wichita State was so dominant but I still say our numbers compare quite favorably when you look at overall results. League strength has fluctuated wildly for the MVC so it's hard to say who had the stronger MVC to contend with. My point is that we're not that far off the trajectory our predecessor set in their first five years. I'm not saying we're going to make a final 4 anytime soon but if we can get invited maybe a postseason tournament wouldn't be a bad idea. I think it would be a good step for the growth of the program We should go on the road though. Our problem is winning on the road. We should focus on getting better at that if we do decide on postseason play assuming it is an option for us. My point in doing all of this is that we're not that far off and next year should be much better.
Quote from: FWalum on February 04, 2020, 11:44:07 AMQuote from: Just Sayin on February 04, 2020, 08:34:00 AMQuote from: justducky on February 03, 2020, 09:58:14 PMQuote from: valpo64 on February 03, 2020, 01:07:20 PMCoach L is doing a great job in utilizing his bench strength and promoting cohesive team play. Fun to watch! We are due to surprise somebody any day now.
Well yeah, I would think that :thumbsup: but all the MVC analytics and backward reflecting rankings show us to be an also ran (Just Sayin has us for only 1 more victory) so who are we to argue? Obviously getting a pre season MVC second team all conference player back along with the other banged up starters healthy isn't going to help us at all. I mean we were bad, so we are bad, so we will continue to be bad. What part of that airtight logic do you not understand? ::) For any of you who may need the above translated---------I think we are about ready to hit our stride and get hot.
Your hope is merely wishful speculation. Nothing wrong with that. Gotta have hope that the team will be successful. My prediction is based on facts. Yes those facts represent what occurred in the past. But they have shown over and over what this team has actually done, how they have performed on a consistent (or inconsistent) basis and the picture of this team which has developed is that they aren't one of the top teams in the MVC. They can be expected to perform roughly in the same way that they have actually performed during the past 23 games. Can that change? Of course, but probably not significantly. It's highly unlikely given their actual record of performance to date. Does Fazekas change the dynamics of this team? Yes, most likely in a positive way. Do they seem to be coming together in ways they have not shown in previous games? Yes, but most teams get better as the season progresses. However, even with the addition of an impact player like Fazekas, you can't turn the entire ship around on a dime and this team is what the team has proved itself to be. They have proved on the court game after game that they are a solid 7th place team in the MVC at this time. I just don't see how that will change barring some miracle. But heck, we can dream. I'd love to see them go 9-0, make the dance and win a game or two. But really? This year, this team? Ain't gonna happen. Maybe next year or the year after.
Are you talking about Valpo or Bradley... ;) With the exception of "winning a game or two" in the dance, isn't that exactly what Bradley did last year? So when Valpo started out 5-1 last year you would have said that they were an upper level MVC team based on actual performance? I agree that it is unlikely that we will end up in the top 4 of conference, but anything is still possible. If the team that played Arkansas (even without Ryan) shows up to play the remainder of our games then who knows were we finish. Maybe we are this year's Bradley. :o
As long as UNI gets in too in that scenario so that we have a shot at tournament credits I'd be very happy with that scenario. In my previous post I advocated for postseason play for Valpo this year in any form we can get it as a means of learning to win on the road.
Quote from: justducky on February 04, 2020, 11:50:54 AM
Quote from: NativeCheesehead on February 03, 2020, 10:08:54 PMFor all of us (most of this board) who have staked a position in the Great Lottich Debate, we're about to find out who's right. The rest of this season may be the most important stretch of Valpo B-ball since the NIT run.
Yup! No more excuses. The Lottich engine has been totally rebuilt and needs tested in the straightaway. How powerful and reliable this 10 cylinder model proves is anybodies guess.
Quote from: vu72 on February 04, 2020, 09:13:20 AMI'm convinced that if JFL can get his shot back and we see solid defense and continued contributions across the team, that we CAN avoid Thursday and win a couple of games.
If we get and stay fully healthy and are still a Thursday team then I would certainly consider showing Matt the door. I might even consider throwing him against it. ;)
I've softened considerably on my hard line fire Lottich stance. I think he's fine even if we end up a PIG team at this point. This team is growing and I'm afraid to lose what the next few years could be because this year didn't turn out as well as we had hoped. With everything we faced this past offseason the fact that we're even discussing being a 3rd 4th 5th 6th place team in this conference is pretty remarkable. Weren't we picked 9th anyway?
Quote from: FWalum on February 04, 2020, 11:44:07 AM
Quote from: Just Sayin on February 04, 2020, 08:34:00 AM
Quote from: justducky on February 03, 2020, 09:58:14 PMQuote from: valpo64 on February 03, 2020, 01:07:20 PMCoach L is doing a great job in utilizing his bench strength and promoting cohesive team play. Fun to watch! We are due to surprise somebody any day now.
Well yeah, I would think that :thumbsup: but all the MVC analytics and backward reflecting rankings show us to be an also ran (Just Sayin has us for only 1 more victory) so who are we to argue? Obviously getting a pre season MVC second team all conference player back along with the other banged up starters healthy isn't going to help us at all. I mean we were bad, so we are bad, so we will continue to be bad. What part of that airtight logic do you not understand? ::) For any of you who may need the above translated---------I think we are about ready to hit our stride and get hot.
Your hope is merely wishful speculation. Nothing wrong with that. Gotta have hope that the team will be successful. My prediction is based on facts. Yes those facts represent what occurred in the past. But they have shown over and over what this team has actually done, how they have performed on a consistent (or inconsistent) basis and the picture of this team which has developed is that they aren't one of the top teams in the MVC. They can be expected to perform roughly in the same way that they have actually performed during the past 23 games. Can that change? Of course, but probably not significantly. It's highly unlikely given their actual record of performance to date. Does Fazekas change the dynamics of this team? Yes, most likely in a positive way. Do they seem to be coming together in ways they have not shown in previous games? Yes, but most teams get better as the season progresses. However, even with the addition of an impact player like Fazekas, you can't turn the entire ship around on a dime and this team is what the team has proved itself to be. They have proved on the court game after game that they are a solid 7th place team in the MVC at this time. I just don't see how that will change barring some miracle. But heck, we can dream. I'd love to see them go 9-0, make the dance and win a game or two. But really? This year, this team? Ain't gonna happen. Maybe next year or the year after.
Are you talking about Valpo or Bradley... ;) With the exception of "winning a game or two" in the dance, isn't that exactly what Bradley did last year? So when Valpo started out 5-1 last year you would have said that they were an upper level MVC team based on actual performance? I agree that it is unlikely that we will end up in the top 4 of conference, but anything is still possible. If the team that played Arkansas (even without Ryan) shows up to play the remainder of our games then who knows were we finish. Maybe we are this year's Bradley. :o
I would have said what the numbers showed. They may or may not have been one of the best teams after only five games. They might not have had better numbers relative to all other teams in the conference even with a winning record. I typically disclaim the validity of early numbers. What would I have said about last year's team after 23 games? That's enough time to say with confidence where a team stands.
I didn't do this analysis in prior years but it would have been interesting to see the numbers Bradley had the year they won. It might not have been all that surprising.
Quote from: VUGrad1314 on February 04, 2020, 12:00:38 PM
There's an argument to be made that Fazekas turns a lot of these losses we've suffered into wins. I think with a healthy Fazekas we would be in a very different position right now. Patience guys. We're close. Very close. We may not see it this year, we may end up in seventh place. But if we can stay together and avoid the transfer bug, I have a hard time not seeing us as a factor in the MVC race from the jump next year. At large contender? That might be a bit much to say. Top 4 or 5 team with potential to be much more? You bet. We're getting there. It took Loyola like a solid 4-5 years to get where they needed to go. We're in year 3 and making great progress. I know this isn't an apples to apples comparison because we don't have Wichita State to beat the crap out of us and hand us two losses like Loyola did when they were building but have a look at this:
2013-2014 Loyola: 10-22 4-14 10th place MVC Beat Bradley in St Louis MVC RPI Rank: 11
2017-2018 Valpo: 15-17 6-12 10th Place MVC Winless in St Louis MVC RPI Rank: 8
2014-2015 Loyola: 24-13 8-10 6th Place MVC WON CBI Beat Indiana St in St Louis MVC RPI Rank: 9
2018-2019 Valpo: 15-18 7-11 9th Place MVC Beat Indiana St in St Louis MVC NET Rank: 14 (Remember this was the Me-first Year and started 5-1 we could have and should have been much better than this)
2015-2016 Loyola: 15-17 7-11 8th place MVC Beat Bradley in St Louis MVC RPI Rank: 13
2019-2020 Valpo: 12-11 5-5 Result TBD MVC NET Rank: 11
2016-2017 Loyola 18-14 8-10 5th place MVC Winless in St Louis MVC RPI Rank: 12
2020-2021 Valpo: TBD MVC NET Rank: 11
2017-2018 Loyola: 32-5 15-3 1st Place MVC WON ARCH MADNESS MADE FINAL 4 MVC RPI Rank: 8
2021-2022 Valpo: TBD
Conclusions: It took until year 5 for Loyola to crack the .500 mark in conference. We have a chance to do it in year 3 and arguably should have done it in year 2. It's hard to glean much from the standings because Wichita State was so dominant but I still say our numbers compare quite favorably when you look at overall results. League strength has fluctuated wildly for the MVC so it's hard to say who had the stronger MVC to contend with. My point is that we're not that far off the trajectory our predecessor set in their first five years. I'm not saying we're going to make a final 4 anytime soon but if we can get invited maybe a postseason tournament wouldn't be a bad idea. I think it would be a good step for the growth of the program We should go on the road though. Our problem is winning on the road. We should focus on getting better at that if we do decide on postseason play assuming it is an option for us. My point in doing all of this is that we're not that far off and next year should be much better.
1314, I appreciate the post. And the side-by-side comparison is interesting. However, I'm uncomfortable with the comparison. I don't like benchmarking other teams, even if the other team is a former VU team.
It seems that this team should strive for getting better, and being the best that they can be. But, if we compare the team's yoy improvement to Loyola in the MVC, or even with Valpo when it joined the HL, then there is an opportunity for complacency if the benchmark is matched or exceeded. I'd rather that the team set its own goals, and then engage a plan to meet THOSE goals.
Besides, I frankly thank that Loyola's in-conference yoy improvement in the MVC is not that impressive.
You can make that argument for the first four years but what they've done since is pretty gosh darn great. Tell you what: This Valpo team's goal is at least a final four. Git 'er done guys! Is that better? :) No really I get your point I'm just providing facts to urge patience with the program as a whole because I think we're getting to a point where we're about to compete and be pretty darn good. And to be fair my goal IS to see this team in a final four and I hope the team also views themselves that way. :)
Quote from: FWalum on February 04, 2020, 11:44:07 AMAre you talking about Valpo or Bradley... With the exception of "winning a game or two" in the dance, isn't that exactly what Bradley did last year? So when Valpo started out 5-1 last year you would have said that they were an upper level MVC team based on actual performance? I agree that it is unlikely that we will end up in the top 4 of conference, but anything is still possible. If the team that played Arkansas (even without Ryan) shows up to play the remainder of our games then who knows were we finish. Maybe we are this year's Bradley.
To refresh my memory I looked up the 2018-2019 Braves record.Correct that they did start conference play at 0-5 while we went 5-1. A movement was actually growing to get Wardle his money. Things then changed when they went 9-4 down the stretch for a 9-9 finish and an ending NET (post tournaments) of 176 and RPI of 162. I forget the whole story but I think they were shorthanded early and it took some time for the team to gain traction. Hmmmm----Sound familiar?
Quote from: Just Sayin on February 04, 2020, 12:06:21 PM
Quote from: FWalum on February 04, 2020, 11:44:07 AM
Are you talking about Valpo or Bradley... ;) With the exception of "winning a game or two" in the dance, isn't that exactly what Bradley did last year? So when Valpo started out 5-1 last year you would have said that they were an upper level MVC team based on actual performance? I agree that it is unlikely that we will end up in the top 4 of conference, but anything is still possible. If the team that played Arkansas (even without Ryan) shows up to play the remainder of our games then who knows were we finish. Maybe we are this year's Bradley. :o
I would have said what the numbers showed. They may or may not have been one of the best teams after only five games. They might not have had better numbers relative to all other teams in the conference even with a winning record. I typically disclaim the validity of early numbers. What would I have said about last year's team after 23 games? That's enough time to say with confidence where a team stands.
I didn't do this analysis in prior years but it would have been interesting to see the numbers Bradley had that year they won. It might not have been all that surprising.
Honestly, I was being a little sarcastic. My point was that this is not all that simple. I have said before that one little thing can change the fortunes of an entire season, things that coaches have little or no control over and other things that should be under their control. Alec Peters' stress fracture (not controllable), Joe Burton flunking out (much more controllable). I personally think there is little doubt that this team's record would be much better if Ryan had not broken and dislocated the wrist. Can that change?? Things will have to improve based on what I have seen in the last few games. We are still impatient and look for JFL to bail us out in many possessions. Numerous occasions when Ryan was wide open or being hugged by his man and we did not have the court awareness to see the advantages that were created by having Ryan on the floor. Lets all hope this improves tonight.
Quote from: FWalum on February 05, 2020, 07:59:36 AM
Quote from: Just Sayin on February 04, 2020, 12:06:21 PM
Quote from: FWalum on February 04, 2020, 11:44:07 AM
Are you talking about Valpo or Bradley... ;) With the exception of "winning a game or two" in the dance, isn't that exactly what Bradley did last year? So when Valpo started out 5-1 last year you would have said that they were an upper level MVC team based on actual performance? I agree that it is unlikely that we will end up in the top 4 of conference, but anything is still possible. If the team that played Arkansas (even without Ryan) shows up to play the remainder of our games then who knows were we finish. Maybe we are this year's Bradley. :o
I would have said what the numbers showed. They may or may not have been one of the best teams after only five games. They might not have had better numbers relative to all other teams in the conference even with a winning record. I typically disclaim the validity of early numbers. What would I have said about last year's team after 23 games? That's enough time to say with confidence where a team stands.
I didn't do this analysis in prior years but it would have been interesting to see the numbers Bradley had that year they won. It might not have been all that surprising.
Honestly, I was being a little sarcastic. My point was that this is not all that simple. I have said before that one little thing can change the fortunes of an entire season, things that coaches have little or no control over and other things that should be under their control. Alec Peters' stress fracture (not controllable), Joe Burton flunking out (much more controllable). I personally think there is little doubt that this team's record would be much better if Ryan had not broken and dislocated the wrist. Can that change?? Things will have to improve based on what I have seen in the last few games. We are still impatient and look for JFL to bail us out in many possessions. Numerous occasions when Ryan was wide open or being hugged by his man and we did not have the court awareness to see the advantages that were created by having Ryan on the floor. Lets all hope this improves tonight.
A win tonight would certainly give this team a whole lotta confidence going forward. The time is ripe for a major turnaround as others have noted us being at full strength. We'll see.
Quote from: Just Sayin on February 05, 2020, 08:40:55 AMThe time is ripe for a major turnaround as others have noted us being at full strength.
#1, (8-2) #2, (7-3) and #3 (7-3) are our immediate obstacles in descending order. Time for Lottich and the team to step up and make a statement. :o
https://twitter.com/ValpoBasketball/status/1224843125941776385