Valpo takes on Marist who has been routed by Georgetown and Davidson.
They handled Marist last season for a multi score win in New York. The Beacs have more experience on O and D in the two deep.
All being said. This should be a 2-3 score Valpo win. However the offense was dysfunctional last time out.
If Valpo wins the goal for 6 is still alive. If the Beacs lose this game it's doomsday for the record.
I am hoping offensive play calling is really cleaned up.
28-10 Beacs
I'll be there and hope to meet a few of the Board members . Ask around at the Donor's tent.
Valpo wins 31-13
Beacons 34 - 17
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Valpo 24
Marist 14
I hope the staff has worked real hard on a "fix-it list" in order to compete with Marist. A quick look at the stats to-date in the game preview gives us an indication of where the fix-it list priorities might lie:
VU BROKE OPP
4/4 Fumbles/Lost 0/0
5 Ints thrown 1
11 Sacks given up 4
2 Own punts blocked 1
1.5 Yds per rush 5.4
52.8% Pass comp %age. 49.2%
Just securing the damn ball and improved OL performance across the board (i.e., run blocking and protecting Mikey) alone would turn the tide.
Sacks, pics, and completion %age (which should be >60%) all are reliant on competent pass protection. It would appear just from the raw stats that Appel doesn't get much time to read through his progressions, which forces less than accurate throws, too many pics/incompletes or sacks.
Our give-away comparison is also telling - a total of 11 fumbles lost, punts blocked or pics to our opponents' 2 - combined with 11 sacks, many of which were drive-ending, puts tremendous pressure on even the best of defenses.
The Davidson QB went 17/21 for 303 yards and 5 TDs last week. And Davidson is a run-first team.
Statistical analysis which includes a game vs a team a Div or two up (however one wishes to term it) is going to be flawed.
The offense had a bad game vs Indiana Wesleyan and certain aspects of the game have to be improved. One game analysis is also going to be flawed.
So, essentially, until we get into league play we really don't know much at all.
What we do know is that we can't run the ball very well against either a FCS scholarship program (only 40 yards) or an NAIA program (only 56 yards). We know that we turned the ball over to an FCS team 3 times (to their 0) and 6 times to the NAIA team (to their 1). We know that we gave up 5 sacks to the FCS team and 6 to the NAIA TEAM. And we also know that we are impartial as to who we allow to block our punts - each opponent got one. On the contrary, we know quite a bit about this team so far. But much of that is correctable.
Quote from: JD24 on September 19, 2023, 11:30:38 AMStatistical analysis which includes a game vs a team a Div or two up (however one wishes to term it) is going to be flawed.
Have agree that we have obvious things to correct but also that statistical analysis this early is tough. Remember, of the five interceptions throw, two were tipped and was a desperation first half ending throw that worked out as well as a punt. Also, if you take out all the sack yardage, we are more like 3.4 running per carry.
Sorry, guys, but tipped passes and desperate throw's don't change the fact that things that contributed to those conditions existed because of breakdowns that either preceded or were present at the time of each play.
Good teams make their own luck through solid execution. We just aren't there yet — but we can be. The bye week was a needed gift.
If the fix-it list is adequately addressed, Beacons 31 Red Foxes 17.
Starting a converted FR OT at center in Noah Kline. Woody and Smith should help with the interior.
Kline had great HS film and multiple PFL offers. Him , Russell, Mcilvenna are all large bodies in the two deep.
My hope is to retain these guys and the RSFR Smith, Kotoles , and Paic and start forming something of a foundation there
Side Bar: If Pauley is a true center, and played 8 games for a viable offense in Presbyterian last year with spring experience. Why isn't he just slotted into in?
Wonder if this is an eligibility mishap or Fox is trying to trying to redshirt 90% of roster
Very cool to see both the 2003 Volleyball Mid-Con champs being honored this weekend, as well as the 2003 Football PFL champs. We won several championships that athletic year, which was my final year on campus.
Yeah, it is a shame that the MVC schedulers put WSO on the road this weekend. It would have been a homecoming weekend championship trifecta.
Welcome to Gameday at the mecca of college football, venerable Brown Field! Valpo wins easy today.
I don't trust the offense at this point. It's possible that Coach Fox's weakness is the inability to hire a decent OC. The lineman jumping up and down play I found a bit disturbing unless it was just to get something on tape as a "yeah we can do really stupid things sometimes" play.
So we may be looking at a 17-6 "blowout" of Marist.
Oooops! Muffed punt. Hands the ball to Marist inside the 20. Special Teams error again.
VU up 7-3. Mikey to Solo show so far.
Appel 9-10 on passing. Touchdown. By far our best asset when he's on
14-3 , Glad we snuck it on the 1 yard line. No empty sets or useless motion.
14-3 after Marist punter couldn't catch the snap.
I don't get it, why on earth is Valpo using running plays with 3 min left in 2nd qtr, knowing the clock keeps running. :o
You guys that sing Fox praises on Defense need to re evaluate your football knowledge
We are losing to an awful team
Offense has one first down since the first quarter. Need to know football.
Defense can't be out there for a 9 minute, 90 yard drive and then trot back out 45 seconds later.
This offense isn't competitive. 98 yards and only reason a second TD was scored was a botched snap
Without a botched kick return (Tezzos second of the year) have given up 14 to a team that scored 21 on Davidson.
The offense is abysmal
Doomsday. With SW Minnesota giving scholarships and Stetson hanging with Butler.
0-11 is not unrealistic.
Depressing...
Craptacular.
Program is awful
Lost to a bottom feeder
Nothing has changed except school pays more for coaches
What a joke
What a terrible performance...depressing and disgusting to watch...should have been a "W" for us. What is going on with the program???
Last two weeks have seemed like pre-Fox Valpo.
Today....
Mikey really played well minus the overthrows in overtime. Pick was a wash
Tezzo has now dropped two punts resulting in points.
Matthes has now dropped a snap for a field goal and had two kicks blocked for touchdowns.
Without the Marist botched snap for a QB sneak Valpo or a miracle kick blocked Valpo loses in over time.
When the score is 14-3 Valpo needs to put teams away, and this team just cannot run the ball. I don't think coming out in bunch and putting 11 in the box immediately helps your young line.
The defense was on the field the entirety of the 2nd and 4th Quarters. When offense gets the ball back they need a drive.
Hafner personal foul was a boneheaded play. The talent difference between the Marist WRs and Valpo WRs was glaring.
I'm not sure the OL, WR situations are fixable this season unless they go young. Defense was unable to get off the field on the fourth down.
I think the talent is there defensively to compete. I think with a revolving door of coaches on O (this is largely due to aforementioned pay) we get inexperienced rosters and coaches on O.
This years Offensive roster and coaches aren't very talented outside of Appel, Jernegan, Davis and Woody
Love how some blame the OC
Who hired him?
Fox
Terrible judgement-
What's Fox career record?
has to be abysmal-
no way should Valpo consider an extension for Fox right now and they don't have to. We don't want to repeat the Lottich situation.
I'm more afraid Fox will move on from Valpo than Valpo move on from Fox.
We need to remember state of program before Fox.
is it that much better than under Cecchini? Not sure. I even wonder if Fox would take an extension. This is a place for a long term coach, it's a stepping stone.
Yeah. Twice as many losses to wins is something we don't want to give up.
Big loss if he leaves- which is ridiculous, because who, in their right mind would hire him, unless it was for an assistant position
10 years of +500 record as an FCS coordinator, 1 + 500 year as a coach, 2 other 500 conference.
Of the 200+ D1/D1A jobs Valpo is probably a bottom 5. Coordinator positions at many other schools are more attractive than our Head Job.
Look at last 4 hires:
Adams- Incumbent non scholarship 1st time HC
Carlson - NAIA mid level HC
Cecchini - FCS Coordinator 1st time HC
Fox - FCS coordinator 1st time HC
With our scheduling a sub .500 loss is expected, we play 2-3 scholarship schools annually.
We also never can keep opposite side of ball staff due to pay (Carlson/Cecchini-D,Fox-O)
Fox is a really good defensive football coach. Problem is bigger than him.
Very real reality is that we are averaging 1.7 YPC with 14 sacks in 3 games
I don't think Fox is a bad coach. I am saying Valpo isn't much better and there should be no urgency to giving him an extension
I chalked up last season's close losses as signs of a promising team on the verge of learning how to win. Lots of good football teams have gone through that stage. But Dawson was a one-year wonder, and the transfer portal claimed its share. It's starting to feel a little Groundhog Day Season-like.
Quote from: usc4valpo on September 23, 2023, 05:19:55 PMis it that much better than under Cecchini? Not sure. I even wonder if Fox would take an extension. This is a place for a long term coach, it's a stepping stone.
Yes. It has been better than under Cecchini.
16 - sorry man, I objectively cannot praise a coach having a 3-2 winning season in the short COVID season. These games were really more exhibition or intramural like. Bad indicator.
Quote from: valpofb16 on September 23, 2023, 06:14:45 PM10 years of +500 record as an FCS coordinator, 1 + 500 year as a coach, 2 other 500 conference. Of the 200+ D1/D1A jobs Valpo is probably a bottom 5. Coordinator positions at many other schools are more attractive than our Head Job. Look at last 4 hires: Adams- Incumbent non scholarship 1st time HC Carlson - NAIA mid level HC Cecchini - FCS Coordinator 1st time HC Fox - FCS coordinator 1st time HC With our scheduling a sub .500 loss is expected, we play 2-3 scholarship schools annually. We also never can keep opposite side of ball staff due to pay (Carlson/Cecchini-D,Fox-O) Fox is a really good defensive football coach. Problem is bigger than him. Very real reality is that we are averaging 1.7 YPC with 14 sacks in 3 games
Washington and Dawson covered a lot of offensive issues.
Now the offense is just offensive.
You're right that the defense can't be on the field the length of time they were today. Recipe for disaster.
Hopefully new AD hires better than previous.
Football amongst other programs have been historically bad due to poor coaching hiring practices.
Looking at our supposed top programs -3 of the 4 (not volleyball) have been terrible.Not sure if any other sports have full scholarships
Is mens golf full ride?
Who could the AD get to coach Valpo? Another first time Coordinator?
Football is historically bad because of scheduling. Even within non scholarship PFL Valpo is probably the least desirable option when talking Tuition, City, and weather.
Program celebrated a team that went 4-3 in PFL play with the 2003 team yesterday. The 2020 4-2 spring season actually had a better record. Sorry they didn't have Wisconsin Lutheran and Aurora to boost record.
Against PFL teams alone Fox is about .500, that's better than any coach since Horne. Who took about 10 seasons to get there.
PFL Records:
Fox - 13-17 (43%)
Cecchini-13-26 (34%)
Carlson - 3-29 (10%)
Adams -6-28 (18%)
Horne -18-33 (35%)
Main difference is starting in Adams era PFL games went from 4 a season to 8. Meaning that the D3 ham & eggers went away and were replaced with more PFL competition. So 2000&2003 were more like the 2020 spring season with still actually less PFL games.
Careful what you wish for , You can make, and have a valid case, that Fox is the best coach since Valpo transitioned to the PFL.
16 - good analysis, but please bag the COVID season in your analysis as it makes it skewed.
Also, either way, Fox is sub .500 in non scholarship D3 like competition. Wouldn't be reasonable that Valpo can raise their expectations above mediocrity, at least above 500 in a weak conference? Again, Fox is a decent coach, but I can't see where an extension or long term contract should be considered.
Usc4valpo. With all due respect you have zero idea what you are talking about.
Butler just handled Wabash who will likely go 10-1 this year. The PFL is a step above high level Division 3 football. It is more similar to high level D2 / NAIA scholarship competition.
Throwing out the covid season makes no sense as well? Team traveled and played full 110 man rosters? With 60 freshman on that team. Only difference is freshman had spring before the fall in a sense. Actually a disservice to Valpo as most upperclassmen moved on
Valpo settling for mediocrity is above Fox. School has decided on macro level to use avl funds for basketball. That is why coordinators are leaving due to low pay, Brown field is still Brown field, and the position coaches make less than 40k.
PFL board stated Valpos football budget is second lowest in the conference. With a bottom feeder budget you can expect a bottom feeder team.
Asking a revolving a door of coaches to succeed in a conference where everyone has more resources and desirable locations seems a bit of a tall task? Not even talking about teams that can offer scholarships. Being competitive at Valpo is a success until Valpo decides to make a change.
Quote from: usc4valpo on September 24, 2023, 08:30:49 AM
16 - good analysis, but please bag the COVID season in your analysis as it makes it skewed.
Also, either way, Fox is sub .500 in non scholarship D3 like competition. Wouldn't be reasonable that Valpo can raise their expectations above mediocrity, at least above 500 in a weak conference? Again, Fox is a decent coach, but I can't see where an extension or long term contract should be considered.
I'm going to be a sentimental old sop and say no way do we "bag the COVID season." Everyone was dealing with an unprecedented, challenging situation. COVID protocols for college athletics added an unsettling element. And yet there was this determination to reclaim a sense of normalcy and play some football.
But more importantly in terms of the football program: Valpo played 6 league games, all close (within 1-2 scores), and won 4 of them. We had Washington at RB, but under 50% pass completions (though Nimz started to show why he should've been VU's QB1 all along).
Those games counted. And they showed the ability of Coach Fox to win the close ones.
During the off-season, I tend to look at roster changes more than anything else, but can you imagine trying to deal with that revolving door of assistants in terms of establishing coaching continuity and position coach rapport with the players?
Quote from: usc4valpo on September 24, 2023, 08:30:49 AM
16 - good analysis, but please bag the COVID season in your analysis as it makes it skewed.
Also, either way, Fox is sub .500 in non scholarship D3 like competition. Wouldn't be reasonable that Valpo can raise their expectations above mediocrity, at least above 500 in a weak conference? Again, Fox is a decent coach, but I can't see where an extension or long term contract should be considered.
USC, your are wrong about non-scholarship opponents. Valpo, under Fox, has NEVER scheduled a non-scholarship opponent. Every OOC game so far under Fox has been scholarship: FCS, NCAA DII, NAIA scholarship.
Furthermore, NO VU coach in his first 4 years has won more PFL games.
That aside, if football is to rise to the upper tier of the PFL and perennially be in the pre-season championship conversation, Valpo, as fb16 has stated, has to first eliminate the revolving door and stabilize the coaching staff. I've personally run into this issue myself in trying to maintain a relationship with one recruiting coordinator after the next and a few recruiting balls have be dropped as a result.
Valpo can do this by paying a competitive salary to not only the HFBC but also: both coordinators and at least four key assistants (two on each side of the ball). That's a core staff of 7 out of the current listed staff of 11 for 110 players (for perspective, Roger has a staff of 6 for only 12 players). That core is essential for program stability and growth. Lower level staff can be young coaches just in their first year or two or up-and-coming grad assistants, all of whom will move on after a year or two and that is ok. But the core has to be retained. Fox, himself, was at Dayton for 11 years before he came to Valpo.
Case in point on how this works: Davidson. They were the PFL bottom feeders of bottom feeders for so long. They finally bit the bullet and hired not just a new HFB coach, they hired a totally new system of play and the key staff who came with the HFBC who could teach it right out of the blocks. Result - they have been a winning program from the start and ever since, and they've gone to three NCAA FCS playoffs. Granted we are not in Davidson's class in many ways. They have a $1.3 billion endowment, are long-time members of the A-10, and will open a new $54 million football stadium and complex next season. We can't do that, but we can at least prop up the current HFBC with the staff/tools he needs to take the program to the next PFL level. FB16 is right in his concern over Fox leaving out of frustration. I wouldn't blame him if he did.
Quote from: VULB#62 on September 24, 2023, 11:46:21 AMCase in point on how this works: Davidson. They were the PFL bottom feeders of bottom feeders for so long. They finally bit the bullet and hired not just a new HFB coach, they hired a totally new system of play and the key staff who came with the HFBC who could teach it right out of the blocks. Result - they have been a winning program from the start and ever since, and they've gone to two NCAA playoffs. Granted we are not in Davidson's class in many ways. They have a $1.3 billion endowment, are long-time members of the A-10, and will open a new $54 million football stadium and complex next season. We can't do that, but we can at least prop up the current HFBC with the staff/tools he needs to take the program to the next PFL level. FB16 is right in his concern over Fox leaving out of frustration. I wouldn't blame him if he did.
Scott Abell was a pretty successful coach at Washington & Lee and did bring an offense which is tough to defend for a lot of teams because they don't face it all that often. It's forward thinking that I don't think Valpo uses in their hires at least in football. Whatever the thought process, it will take a financial commitment I'm not sure the school is ready to take.
24, you and I have chatted about this frequently in the past. I recall us agreeing on the value of systems like Abell's and the service academies that help under-talented teams compete above their aggregate talent level. Unfortunately, I too am a bit pessimistic regarding the concerns you bring up. I mentioned paying coordinators and 4 key assistants, but even a steady talented coaching core of five, rather than seven would help.
62 - Valpo is a member of a non scholarship conference; thus it would makes sense that the majority of the games on schedule are against non-scholarship football programs.
"Butler just handled Wabash who will likely go 10-1 this year. The PFL is a step above high level Division 3 football. It is more similar to high level D2 / NAIA scholarship competition."
16 - respectfully disagree. there are several schools D3 in Iliinois, Iowa and Minnesota that would beat Valpo and other schools in the Pioneer conference. Also, D2 in the MIAA, which includes Northwest Missouri State who is having an off year, is significantly better than the Pioneer conference. How would the Michigan D2 schools like Grand Valley State do against the Pioneer teams?
Like said before, it is sad Valpo has to take a frugal Walmart approach in their football program. But the objective of the football program at Valpo is clear.
USC. Yes the top 5-10% of division two is most likely better than the latter half of the PFL league.
But any given year I'd take San Diego, Drake, Dayton historically.
Taking the top 1% of D3 like MT Union , North Central, Whitewater yes, those teams would be competitive in the PFL.
But on the whole. Those teams dominate their level of competition which is the other 99% of Division 3 which Valpo would dominate.
If you put them in Wabash/Wittenberg conference (which geographically makes sense) they are winning 8-10 every year since at least 2016.
Valpo has gone 1-11 and played mid level division 2 schools tough.
Your example is like saying San Diego belongs in the Big Sky because they have picked off NAU and Cal Poly. Or Dayton belongs in the Northeast because their dominance over Robert Morris.
If you take the top schools, yes those are outliers, but they too dominate against their competition
Right now, no way Northwest Missouri State, who is having an off year, would lose to Drake or Dayton or USD.
USC, please don't mix oranges, apples and potatoes in single statements. Carlson and Adams before him did schedule non- scholarship DIII. Cecchini had three on the schedule in 5 seasons. Fox has none. Yes, others in the PFL schedule ham & eggers (see Davidson drubbing St. Andrews this week 84-6). That's on them.
But here's a primer on the opponents we, and most PFL teams, now face yearly:
First, lets get NCAA DIII (243 colleges) out of the way. No athletic scholarships allowed. Valpo's current teams in the last 4 years would handily beat 80%, and are very competitive with all the rest but the top 10%. And of that 24 in the top 10% we'd give 50% of them a good game. Butler always has Taylor on their schedule and regularly beats them. Top DIII Perspective: UW-Whitewater State has an on-campus 12,000 seat stadium and a student body of over 10,000. There are no FCS or DII teams in Wisconsin. It's either UW-Madison (B1G) or Whitewater if you want to stay in state and are a VERY good player. Similar circumstances occur with teams like Mt. Union in Ohio with a fantastic legacy. Yet you seldom hear about D-III players in the NFL, XFL, or CFL. There are a number of PFL players on NFL rosters.
FBS (128 colleges) Award 85 full rides - no equivalents (full rides or nothing). Drake scared the hell out of Iowa State. New Mexico State paid us a small fortune to crush Valpo last season. Long Island University (NEC !!!, FCS) this season lost at Baylor only 30-7. These are aberrations.
FCS (133 colleges) Award up to 65 full ride equivalents (i.e., a full ride can be segmented). Basically, they are PFL bodybag games, but occasionally there is a pleasant surprise. Most recently Valpo took Illinois State to a close finish and under Cecchini, we scared the hell out of Montana. Butler upset YSU several years back. We have been competitive with Dartmouth in two games. USD beat two FCS teams in the first round of the NCAA playoffs. The bottom half of the PFL would definitely occupy the cellar in most FCS conferences, But the top 2 or 3 would easily be middle of the pack in some FCS conferences.
NCAA DII (162 colleges) Award up to 36 full ride equivalents. The top half of the PFL would consistently compete in the top third of most DII conferences. Wins against DII teams over the years have demonstrated that.
NAIA (95 colleges) Award up to 24 full ride equivalents. Since Cecchini and Fox, Valpo has been very competitive with top NAIA schools (Indiana Wesleyan is currently ranked #4 in the country).
Then there is the non-scholarship FCS (19 colleges) — The PFL and Ivy League. The Ivys seldom schedule outside the Patriot, NEC or PFL for OOC games — hell, they don't need the pay checks. The PFL does schedule FCS teams regularly —mainly for pay checks — but PFL teams are consistently competitive against the lowest level scholarship FCS league, the NEC, of late.
The PFL, as an FCS conference, has an automatic bid to the NCAA FCS playoffs. It is incumbent on its members to be as competitive at the FCS level as possible. USD did that for two years. Davidson, not so much - yet. But the overall talent of the top PFL teams has improved. This is a conference of which we are a charter member. We need to pull our weight. Small and Padilla have shown that athletics mean something to the university. Of course MBB is the priority, but football, as the next popular sport, deserves better support.
:(
We've been in non-scholarship football for 30+ years. How many winning seasons have we had in that time? Not PFL, but complete seasons. We need to be better.
The last time we had three winning seasons in a row was 1971-1973. We've learned to embrace our ineptitude.
This was a game we should have won.
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62 - I get it, but after watching Drake and NW Mo. St. and doing the eye test, it would be a blowout win for the D2 school.
Not challenging that all. The top DII teams in their respective conferences, and NWMS is one of those programs, will usually beat the best the PFL has to offer (but that's not Drake at the moment). Thirty-six full rides will do that for you. 😀
I feel better now, I was worried we would get through a season without a NWMO reference.
At least I'm not bringing up the game of the week in Boulder!!!
Quote from: usc4valpo on September 26, 2023, 09:26:13 AM
At least I'm not bringing up the game of the week in Boulder!!!
Completely agree about that